A couple of comments from the Fed chair during the post-FOMC meeting Statement have been responsible for most of the market price action, notably, Powell’s remarks “we’re some ways away from substantial progress on jobs” and that “the Fed is nowhere near considering raising rates”.
Author
David de Garis
“Dave writes for the Bank’s daily and weekly economics and market reports, and speaks with the media, often on a day to day basis speaking about the economy and financial markets”
Dave is a Director and Senior Economist with the NAB.
His bread and butter work is as a business, treasury or financial markets economist, speaking with clients ranging from the Bank’s agribusiness and corporate clients as well as to institutional clients at home and abroad.
He’s writes for the Bank’s daily and weekly economics and market reports, and speaks with the media, often on a day to day basis speaking about the economy and financial markets.
Dave did his economics apprenticeship with federal governments of various persuasions in Canberra, before he left Canberra in the late 1980s. He finished his indenture in Canberra as a senior economic adviser in the then Prime Minister Bob Hawke’s Department in Canberra, and before that in the Federal Treasury and the Bureau of Statistics.
Recently Published Articles
Markets Today: Beige Book highlights ‘brisk rise’ in input costs
If there’s one takeout from the Fed’s Beige Book overnight, aside from the continued improvement in the US recovery, it was the rising concern about input costs.
Markets Today: Another turnaround Thursday
Equities bounced back in the US and Europe as markets re-evaluated the comments about the timing of tapering in this week’s FOMC minutes.
Markets Today: US dollar heading to 2018 lows
It’s been a mixed session for US equities overnight whilst bonds headed sideways.
Markets Today: Fewer jobless claims
USA equities came bouncing back after yesterday’s sharp response to the higher than anticipated CPI numbers.
Markets Today: Block trades and blocked trade
There was quite a bit of optimism in the air on Friday as we career towards the end of the month and the end of the quarter this week.
Markets Today: Oil price spills over COVID recovery concerns
Market sentiment has switched in the last 24 hours, with concerns that the economic recovery from COVID-19 might be slower than anticipated.
Markets Today: Slow movement, soft data
There wasn’t much movement in shares, bond yields or currencies overnight, despite weaker retail numbers out of the US.
Markets Today: bond yields climb again
Bond yields are on the rise, in the US and in Australia – for very similar reasons.
Markets Today: Moving on from GameStop, back to abnormality
In normal times an episode like the Reddit induced short squeeze would eventually see markets return to normal.
Markets Today: Reddit Rebels shut out; US growth slows
US equities have bounced back after a day influenced by speculative trading on retail platforms with investors spurred on by chatter on Reddit.
Markets Today: More positive vaccine news, but equities are cautious
Astra Zeneca announced the results of their trials, with efficacy up to 90 percent with a drug that is cheaper to produce and easier to distribute.
Markets Today: Markets cling on to stimulus hopes, but maybe after a Biden victory
Donald Trump continues to talk about a stimulus deal, even though he said it had been shelved.
Markets Today: Manufacturing climbs
There was a lot of optimism in the markets overnight, driven by strong manufacturing numbers in the US and Europe.
Markets Today: Finding the shape of the new abnormal
There’s another possibly shape – the W recovery.
Markets Today: US equities back
US equities bounced back today – perhaps because there wasn’t a lot of new news on the coronavirus but also because US ISM numbers exceeding expectations.
Markets Today: Spreading virus extends risks
The Australian dollar has fallen more than one percent today as concern continues over the spread of the Corona virus.
Markets Today: Fed – cut and hold
The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates as expected.
Markets Today: Talks back on, bonds sell off
There’s been big moves on equities and bonds today as talks between the US and China appear to be back on.
Markets Today: An election surprise
Following the Coalition’s surprise victory on Saturday night, we’re already seeing a rise in the Aussie dollar.
Markets Today: Markets buoyed by reports of auto tariff delay
US and European equities are up again on reports President Trump is delaying auto-tariffs due to kick in this weekend.
Markets Today: ‘Turnaround Tuesday’
In Europe they’ve nicknamed last night as 'Turnaround Tuesday as stocks regained much of their losses.
Markets Today: US China trade dispute intensifies
The US President has threatened further tariffs on China over the weekend, on top of those imposed on Friday.
Markets Today: Markets resting on hope of a tariff delay
US equities have partially reversed their declines.
Markets Today: No deals, no rate cut & little Euro-growth
US equities have been knocked again as increased tariffs from the US on Chinese imports are looking more likely than not.
FX podcast – RBA Alert: AUD sub 70? Are you ready?
David De Garis discusses what to expect at tomorrow's RBA meeting.
Markets Today: One day after the Fed
The market continues to react to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s ‘transitory’ remark on low inflation yesterday.
Markets Today: US spending rises, inflation softer
It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours as markets wait for word from the Fed later in the week.
Markets Today: Is a RBA rate cut even more likely?
It’s been a dovish couple of days for central banks.
Markets Today: What Chinese slowdown?
China delivered some more positive results in the last 24 hours.
Markets Today: Goldilocks & the magic money tree
US non-farm payrolls data emed to indicate a Goldilocks economy – more jobs and with wages contained.
Markets Today: China data brings fresh hope
China’s PMI numbers over the weekend were better than expected.
Markets Today: Going nowhere fast
The pound has suffered the most of the major currencies.
Australian Markets Weekly: WA – only creeping progress likely for now
In this issue we delve further into the state of the WA economy.
Markets Today: May have to delay for another day
The markets are on-hold ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week.
Markets Today: Holding out for the FOMC & Brexit news
It’s a slow start to the trading week.
Markets Today: May defeated, Boeing grounded
Boeing's share price has driven the Dow down whilst lower than expected inflation will have had a bit to do with bond prices today.
Markets Today: Worry is all I can do
Markets have reacted swiftly to the latest ECB meeting.
Markets Today: Rumoured coal blockade pushes Aussie down
Reports China is blocking the import of Australian coal into its Dalian port hit the Aussie dollar hard with no sign of recovery just yet.
Markets Today: Here comes that rainy day feeling again
Markets are speculating whether the US will impose tariffs on car imports from Europe.
Markets Today: No shutdown, just an emergency (and a holiday)
Could Trump’s declaration of an emergency to fund his wall have consequences for the markets?
Markets Today: You’re in for a big surprise
Markets have been choppy on the back of surprisingly poor retail numbers from the US.
Markets Today: Market optimism as deadlines pushed back
It’s looking likely the 1 March deadline for higher Chinese tariffs will be pushed back on the hope of progress on trade talks next month.
Australian Markets Weekly – inside housing
In this Weekly, we delve further into the ins and outs of the Australian housing sector.
Markets Today: A way to go, for growth & a trade deal
It’s a sea of red for shares this morning. How much of this is down to Larry Kudlow’s comment that there’s a “pretty sizeable distance to go” before trade issues are resolved with China?
Markets Today: World on hold, except for Oz
It’s a significant day for Australian news, in a period where little else is driving markets in the rest of the world.
Markets Today: stronger equities, weaker bond yields
The dovish tone set by the Fed yesterday has seen renewed vigour in the US equity markets helped by further strong earnings.
Markets Today: Europe’s weakening economy
European PMIs came out weaker than expected. That, together with a downbeat Mario Draghi, saw the Euro weaken.
Markets Today: (If you’re not in it for love) I’m outta here!
US stocks have fallen markedly since the Fed meeting yesterday, with the dollar also taking a hit and the yield curve flattening a little.
Markets Today: Oil lower, Euro economy weaker
Oil fell even further overnight.
The Australian economy’s quiet achiever
Education has grown to a scale export industry, and is now Australia’s third largest export earner.
Markets Today: ECB ends QE on a dovish note
Mario Draghi’s fear of growing downside risks didn’t do too much damage to the Euro.
Markets Today: Pound pummelled as May delays
The pound has taken a hit on the increased uncertainty on where Brexit is heading.
Markets Today: Markets dive on Huawei arrest & OPEC indecision
There were big falls in equities in the US and across Europe overnight, with rises in bonds, the Yen, Gold and the Swiss Franc reinforcing the risk-off mood.
Markets Today: Can you deal with it
The markets have been treading water ahead of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, impacted a little by the news that Peter Navarro might also be attending the dinner.
Australian Markets Weekly – Population in the spotlight
Population growth has become an important issue for the economy and associated politics.
Markets Today: Didn’t we almost win it all
Theresa May and European negotiators have agreed an outline of what the relationship will be after the UK finally leaves the EU which helped the pound today.
Markets Today: Pound hit hard
How low can the pound go if the UK shifts towards a no-deal Brexit?
Australian Markets Weekly – Housing softening but economy read less clear
We open this week to news that auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne continue to run in the mid-to-low 40%s.
Markets Today: FOMC on hold, Brexit unknown, Italy in trouble
The FOMC has kept interest rates on hold. Meanwhile Italy and the EU seem to be at loggerheads on budget numbers and the UK’s Brexit secretary appears a little uninformed, as one cabinet minister breaks ranks on Theresa May’s plan.
Markets Today: Divided they stand, divided the dollar falls
Will the results of the US mid-terms impact the focus of the Fed?
Markets Today: Bouncing into the month as shares turn about face
US equities bounced higher overnight, helped by Facebook’s earnings report.
Markets Today: Shares up, Merkel to step down
Equities rebounded sharply at the start of the session in the US, but lost ground, but are still up on the day.
Markets Today: A risk-off mood, just for today?
There’s caution in the air, but could it just be for a day?
Markets Today: US dollar gains, oil falls, EU wants answers
Despite increasing tensions over the missing Saudi journalist, oil fell sharply.
Markets Today: Brexit dreams, Saudi denials & Kiwi inflation
Still hope a Brexit deal can be found, fears of a US response to the death of a journalist in Saudi Arabia seem to have been put on hold, keeping oil prices in check. And a look ahead to today’s NZ inflation figures.
Markets Today: Another night of the long knives
Equity markets took another hammering overnight.
Markets Today: Brexit hope, Italy’s mess, China’s plans
Whilst the US economy seems to go from strength to strength, there is speculation that China will ramp up stimulus measures to keep their economy strong.
Markets Today: Markets optimistic as Not-NAFTA deal is done
An eleventh-hour deal has has buoyed markets and contributed to increased risk sentiment.
Australian Markets Weekly – Hefty Eastern drought but limited GDP impact
Agricultural prices and production continues to be very region and commodity specific.
Markets Today: Italy overspends
The size of the Italian government’s budget deficit is causing concern in Europe.
Australian Markets Weekly – A tale of two indicators: SEEK and cranes
SEEK data for August showed that Job Ads fell again and the RLB Crane Index reported that residential high-rise surprisingly increased.
Markets Today: Why the US dollar is falling; Chequers won’t work
The US dollar is down this morning even though equities are at record highs.
Markets Today: Positive moves despite tariffs, threats and confusion
Yesterday President Trump pushed ahead with further tariffs on Chinese imports and the promise of retaliation soon followed.
Markets Today: Aussie up on trade hopes
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars gained some ground helped by hopes of renewed trade talks between China and the US.
Markets Today: The waiting game
No further news on tariffs overnight calmed down emerging markets overnight and gave the Aussie dollar a short reprieve.
Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster
The Aussie dollar was higher despite continued woes in emerging markets, whilst the pound gained strength on positive hearsay on Brexit negotiations.
Markets Today: Aussie and Kiwi test new lows
The Aussie and the Kiwi dollars have hit multi-year lows as the situation worsens in emerging markets.
Australian Markets Weekly – WA resources: hints of labour strains
The Weekly digs deeper into the revival in resources sector activity in WA
Markets Today: Special deals, soaring shares & short term funding costs
The pound soared higher today whilst the Aussie dollar suffered.
Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact
There’s been a swift market response to a possible understanding between the US and Mexico to replace NAFTA, helping the Canadian Dollar as well as the Peso.
Markets Today: Five felonies and the markets don’t care
News of five of the US President’s associates being guilty of felonies continues to have little reaction on the markets.
Markets Today: A fowl Monday as Turkey spreads
The Turkish Lira continues to fall.
Markets Today: US reimposes Iran sanctions tomorrow
The US move to push ahead with sanctions against Iran will heighten tensions with Europe.
Australian Markets Weekly – RBA: growth ahead but far from a uniform outlook
The RBA is under the spotlight this week.
Markets Today: Play with fire
Markets revert to trade focus as China announces specific tariff rises on $60bn goods should the US $200bn threat come into force.
Markets Today: Pressure
The market reaction to today’s US announcement on Chinese import tariffs, the FOMC meeting this morning and a near certain rate rise from the Bank of England.
Markets Today: Japan’s little tweaks, China’s new talks and Canada’s closed door
The markets somehow expected more from the Bank of Japan but there was swifter market reaction to news that the US and China might restart trade talks.
Australian Markets Weekly – What do job ads tell us about the Australian economy?
The Weekly looks in detail at some of the trends in SEEK job ads and what they tell us about the trends in the various state economies.
Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ
Today, a session that has been high on movement, even though it’s been low on data. And the Bank of Japan’s attempts to control bond yields has impacted bond prices across the globe.
Markets Today: Friends again? Or playing one against the other?
Despite trade talks, shares continue to rise, but for how long? And what’s happening to Australian inflation – a temporary falter or the start of a softening trend?
Markets Today: A weakening Renminbi and rising bond yields
The Bank of Japan’s changing approach to yield control and China’s policy to protect the economy had the most impact on markets today.
Markets Today: A strong and stable Yuan, a less stable plan for Brexit
Overnight we saw US stocks fall and bond yields up, but the real action has been in China with a weakening of the Renminbi reportedly kept under control by lots of buying from state banks.
Markets Today: Aussie and Kiwi dollar hit by a hat trick of uncertainty
The Aussie and Kiwi dollar were two of the worst performing currencies overnight.
Markets Today: A new approach to China
The new approach to China isn’t any softer.
Markets Today: Markets dazed and confused by trade talk
The markets are a little uncertain about how to price the rising tariff confusion, with equities hit hard today but other risk-off signs – such as gold and bonds – hardly moving.
Markets Today: US stocks down, pound up
The biggest moves have been in US equities, hit by a court ruling on state taxes, and the pound, after a moderately hawkish Bank of England meeting.
Markets Today: Tariff talk hits harder
Equities, currencies, bonds and commodities all reacted to more rhetoric from President Trump about Chinese tariffs.
Australian Markets Weekly – Across the border: momentum in SA
In today’s Weekly, we take a closer look at the SA economy that’s shown a distinct improvement in the past year or so.
Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays
The ECB announced today, as anticipated, that their QE program will finish at the end of the year. But markets weren’t quite expecting the anticipated delay in raising rates – which could be late in 2019.
Markets Today: Trade war? What trade war?
The markets have switched back to risk-on, helping the Aussie dollar rise faster than any of the majors this morning.
Markets Today: I feel like tariffs tonight
As concerns over Italy subside, for now, President Trump has upped the ante against the EU, Mexico and Canada, with tariffs from midnight on steel and aluminium.
Markets Today: Italian meltdown as early election looms
Italian two year bond yields rose 190 basis points overnight. It’s the worst sell off in 26 years, with the distinct possibility that Italians will go back to vote as soon as July.
Markets Today: Markets in a half-hearted risk-off mood
There wasn’t a strong response to the news that peace talks between the US and North Korea have broken down.
Markets Today: Oil choppy over Venezuela; Trump doubtful on North Korea outcome
It's been a quiet session overnight. Oil rallied as supply fears rose on Trump’s sanctions imposed on the country this week, but it has since retreated.
Markets Today: Treasury yields hit four-year high, US dollar reaches year’s peak
US ten-year treasuries were up eight basis points this morning, with the US dollar reaching a new high for the year so far.
Markets Today: Oil rises on unrest; US and European yields boosted
The continuing rise in oil prices and rising bond yields in the US – where they have tipped the 3% yield mark again.
Markets Today: Markets a little testy ahead of payrolls
The S&P500 fell a lot in early trade, testing some technical levels before regaining most of the ground. The US dollar has also retreated.
Markets Today: 24 April 2018
US 10 year Treasury yields are very close to 3 percent this morning. As NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie its resulted in rising bond yields elsewhere, including Europe and Australia.
Markets Today: 20 April 2018
Inflation. Watch out, it’s coming.
Markets Today: 19 April 2018
Rising commodity prices, stalling inflation, a flattening curve and cautious Canadians
Markets Today: US missiles and inflation – both are on the horizon
President Trump’s missile warning spooks US equity markets for a while, but @NAB’s David de Garis said it was only a mild risk-off mood.
Markets Today: Trouble
Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis if this is the end, or the start of it?
Markets Today: 28 March 2018
Early in the session it looked like share trading in the US was going to build on the upward momentum of yesterday, but then a sudden shift in sentiment.
Markets Today: Should I stay or should I go
The markets are waiting for today’s CPI figures from the US.
Markets Today: I won’t back down
Equity markets are back in the black this morning with Treasury yields modestly higher amid further focus on Trump tariffs, with an attempted push back from two key GoP members, but an undaunted Trump.
Markets Today: 28 February 2018
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the market reaction, which includes falling equities and rising bond yields.
Markets Today: Reverse psychology
AUD back up to 0.7840/45.
Markets Today: 21 February 2018
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about what he was trying to say. Plus, the response to US Treasury auctions, what to expect from the Fed minutes, the latest expectation on Aussie rate rises and what’s the story with oil?
Australian Markets Weekly: 19 February 2018
Wages key to inflation and monetary policy.
Markets Today: Still breathing
There was a sharp reaction to higher than expected CPI figures overnight but they have been tempered by weaker than expected retail figures.
Markets Today: 9 February 2018
Stocks fell across Europe and the US overnight.
Markets Today: Low
It’s been another night for selling stocks, Europe taking up where the US and Asia left off (the Eurostoxx 600 was down 1.56%) and this set the tone for the US market.
Australian Markets Weekly: 5 February 2018
RBA growth and inflation outlook still on course.
Markets Today: Moving on up (gradually)
Yesterday’s State of the Union address from the President came and went without any great fanfare as far as market impact was concern.
Markets Today: Hot, hot, hot
The dollar remains the hot topic, just as the weather has been in SE Australia with a slice of this summer’s heatwave coming through with a vengeance, not to mention Roger Federer’s fifth and winning set to reach 20 Grand Slam wins at the Australian Open.
Markets Today: Roll over lay down
Speaking from Davos early in the London session, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin set the tone for the session saying “obviously a weaker USD is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities.”
Markets Today: By the time I get to Davos
Big dollar subsides again overnight after attempted rally yesterday.
Markets Today: Waiting for a bill like you
As we go to print this morning, the US House has passed the US tax reform bill.
Markets Today: She’s leaving home
Markets overnight initially took the lead from a lower than expected print on US core CPI for November, missing the 0.2%/1.8% consensus by a tenth, at 0.1%/1.7%. Stocks rallied, the dollar faded as did Treasury yields.
Markets Today: She speeds
It’s been a night marked by a suicide bomb explosion in Times Square, an event that thankfully inflicted very contained damage to individuals and even less to market stability.
Markets Today: The caution and the damage done
After the AUD rollercoaster of the past two days, there’s been some follow-on selling of the AUD overnight.
Australian Markets Weekly: 4 December 2017
Way out West: mining and exploring again.
Markets Today: Strong
We wrote yesterday how the USD had been sold lower on the back of the cautious Yellen comments.
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 November 2017
Medley: labour market, state GSP, housing, and Amazon.
Markets Today: Slip slidin’ away
The UK Budget was handed down overnight and UK growth estimates have been marked down from low productivity.
Markets Today: Motor’s too fast
The RBNZ this morning has left rates on hold at 1.75% but the language has spurred some Kiwi buying.
Markets Today: We are the world
It’s been a very quiet night for markets, the DXY and BBDXY making some net gains, but more from commodity currency weakness.
Australian Markets Weekly: 6 November 2017
RBA to stick with gradual inflation uplift ahead
Markets Today: That don’t impress me much
In the last hour, President Trump has announced that Jerome Powell will be the next Chair of the Fed, as has been widely flagged in recent days. So no surprises there.
Markets Today: Good day sunshine
The news on the state of the US and European economies has been good overnight, adding more sunshine to the global growth acceleration story.
Markets Today: Friday on my mind
US markets right have been caught between 1) the on-going negotiations over tax between the White House and Republicans, 2) who will be the next Fed Chair (the market seems to be positioning for a Taylor-Powell duo but there’s still no news), and 3) the course of the broader economy.
Australian Markets Weekly: 16 October 2017
Consumption has held despite consumer worries.
Markets Today: The long and winding road (to Brexit)
It’s been an overnight session marked by generally limited moves in currencies – the Pound the exception – bond yields have been steady-to lower on net, equities down smalls with commodities mixed.
Markets Today: Ain’t that lonely yet
It’s been a mix of events in the UK (better data), Europe (no immediate declared Catalan independence from Puigdemont) and the US (Trump tax politics and a softer NFIB report) that have provided the background for limited currency moves overnight.
Australian Markets Weekly: 2 October 2017
Potpourri: inflation ponderings, people and cranes.
Markets Today: Riders on the storm
There have certainly been some unsettling events over the past 24-48 hours for markets to ponder.
Markets Today: Come talk to me
It was a session of two halves on Friday night.
Markets Today: Tax(pl)an
It’s been news filtering out over the past 24 hours of the Trump/Republican tax plan that understandably gathered the attention of markets and gotten USD bulls re-energised.
Markets Today: That’s the way wind-down goes
The FOMC this morning announced as expected the formal start to winding down its balance sheet to commence next month.
Markets Today: Fly!
Another day on and the Pound has again been the star performer in the currency markets.
Markets Today: Surprise, surprise
While the market’s focus was expected to be primarily on the US CPI print for August, there was much more market action across the Atlantic with the Pound soaring on the back of a near term rate rise warning from the Bank of England.
Markets Today: While my risk position gently weeps
There are plenty of news stories about the muted reaction from markets to the latest escalation on the Korean peninsula.
Markets Today: Put down that weapon
The “risk off” sentiment that overshadowed markets after the launch of yet another missile from North Korea didn’t even last 24 hours.
Markets Today: Rain
With Jackson Hole out of the way, markets and related news have been more focussed on Hurricane Harvey, some more news stories out of the West Wing and the resumption of UK-EU Brexit talks. It was a bank holiday in the UK.
Australian Markets Weekly: 28 August 2017
Construction job opportunities rising; mining jobs reappearing
Markets Today: Exodus
Markets are little changed in the lead up to Jackson Hole, with little in the way of major FX moves to report.
Markets Today: In the air tonight
It’s been a risk-on night, a night of some returning support for the USD, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.34% (the DXY by 0.46%), the Swiss Franc and the Yen seeing the larger declines overnight. The driver has been US politics and enlivened talk on tax reform.
Australian Markets Weekly: 7 August 2017
Retail glimmers of light in a competitive landscape.
Markets Today: A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall
"We are experiencing a bubble not in stock prices but in bond price”.
Markets Today: Bohemian Rhapsody
The Euro is trading this morning at 1.1844, the best performing of the majors overnight, up 0.96%.
Markets Today: Fixing a hole
The AUD lost momentum into the London session as the USD recovered some of its mojo.
Markets Today: Get it on
Judged by equity, bond, and commodity markets, it’s been well and truly a risk-on night, but it’s been more mixed as far as the currency market has been concerned.
Markets Today: Twelfth of never
The pick-up in market price action has continued overnight in FX markets. For the AUD, it’s now pretty much all about the Guy Debelle speech today.
Markets Today: Down under
It’s been something of a sideways/choppy night.
Australian Markets Weekly: 17 July 2017
Economy with momentum into Q3
Markets Today: La Vie en Rose
It’s a nod to Bastille Day today and with the US President visiting France, declaring in a tweet his “unbreakable” relationship with the French President.
Markets Today: Summer holiday
It’s been a very quiet start to the week, generally a night of consolidation for markets ahead of a calendar that sees the US earnings season unfold amid an array of central bankers meeting and speaking together with some data over the next 24-48 hours.
Australian Markets Weekly: 10 July 2017
Solid US labour market but no inflation alarm bells.
Markets Today: Should I laugh or cry
With the US market closed for the Independence Day holiday, the focus has been elsewhere and for the markets in both Asia and Europe.
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 July 2017
Population tilting higher.
Markets Today: Getting better
German and Spanish CPIs for June were released overnight – in a limited data schedule – and pointed to a better-than-expected print from tonight’s Eurozone CPI by 0.1% if not 0.2%. That’s added support to the EUR/USD and yields overnight, the Euro this morning at 1.1440.
Markets Today: Goldfinger
In an otherwise relatively quiet night with only the mildest of risk-on tones, gold was something of a standout.
Markets Today: Under pressure
Almost out of default, the USD is higher in a night of virtually no key data, but not getting any clear support from a mixed set of Fed speak, Charles Evans (voter) sounding dovish and Kaplan too.
Markets Today: Janet
The Fed this morning announced a hike in the Fed funds rate by ¼%, as entirely expected, lifting the Federal funds rate to 1.00-1.25%. But we walk in this morning with the big dollar having been pressured and the US Treasury curve lower. Another case of the usual “buy the rumour, sell the fact”?
Markets Today: American Dream
The performer among major currencies has been the Canadian dollar where recent strong hints from Senior Deputy BoC Governor Carolyn Wilkins that the Bank of Canada is shifting to a ‘tightening bias’ given signs of an improving economy continues to resonate with markets.
Markets Today: C’mon feel the noise
US equities have closed on their highs and again with softer oil prices.
Australian Markets Weekly: 29 May 2017
Infrastructure spending emerging and not too soon.
Markets Today: Enjoy the silence
With the US and the UK markets closed for Memorial Day/Spring bank holidays, the focus in a quiet night was on European markets, specifically interest in ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech to the European Parliament.
Markets Today: What goes on
It’s been a night where oil news took centre stage in the lead up to the end of the week with liquidity likely thinner today/tonight into the US long weekend with the US Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
Markets Today: Calm on the water
It’s been a night of relative calm when all is said and done and not at all resembling the middle of last week.
Markets Today: Problema
The US market has taken a breather overnight, notwithstanding news very late in the overnight session yesterday that a Special Counsel (Robert Mueller, ex-FBI Director) was being appointed to investigate Russia’s involvement in the election.
Markets Today: Confessions Part II
It’s been a real night of risk-off emanating from the US and the Twitter sphere going into overdrive over speculation around whether the President pressured James Comey – then FBI Director - to drop his investigation into Mike Flynn, former National Security Adviser, with Russia in the mix.
Markets Today: Words
It’s all been about the FOMC and weakness in the AUD over the past 24 hours.
Markets Today: The inflation song
It’s been a rather listless overnight session, US data has been on the disappointing side, US equities have been headed sideways, the USD did not build further on yesterday’s gains at the start to the week, while oil continues its march lower.
Markets Today: Do you want to know a secret?
After some mis-communication in March, ECB President Mario Draghi chose his words especially carefully and stuck to his script at his post ECB press conference overnight.
Markets Today: (Because I’m) Happy
Getting toward the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and given the torpor of risk assets markets of late, the return of some buying could easily have occurred. And that could well be part of the explanation for overnight moves.
Markets Today: Strong
The German economy is continuing to out-perform. The run of better than expected data continued, this time from the German Ifo Survey for March.
Markets Today: The crude oil blues
The AUD remains a tad under 0.77 this morning, in a session where there’s been some overall diminished appetite for the USD, with the Yen the strongest in the session, up 0.65% at 111.8, with gains also for the EUR, Sterling, and the Swiss Franc.
Markets Today: Tick, tick, tick
The market opened yesterday in the Asia session where it closed on Friday with the USD and Treasury yields in retreat.
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017
From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).
Markets Today: Process and the passion
In the lead up to President Trump’s joint session address tonight in Washington (Wednesday 13.00 AEDT is the scheduled time), the US Treasury yields have started the week moving back up, but without too much conviction.
Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016
Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.
Markets Today: Read about it
More focus on the US economy and the big dollar overnight in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal yesterday and followed that up overnight with two more interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg TV.
Markets Today: Up, up, and away
It’s a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focussing on European politics again overnight, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year in rude economic health with evident momentum.
Markets Today: Down, down
Don’t be alarmed. It’s not that markets have spat the dummy, but rather US equity markets are down, having opened high, with bond yields also lower. In the currency space the USD has been softer, Euro, Sterling and the CHF stronger. The Aussie has been steady-to-lower, though hugging 0.77, supported by the soggy big buck.
Markets Today: Message to my market
It’s been a rather listless overnight session as the US earnings season is drawing to a close with one of the best quarters of growth for quite some quarters. But that, and the tantalising prospect that corporate tax reductions and deregulation from the Trump Administration, and hopes of better growth, seems to be priced in.
Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien
It’s been something of a risk off session to open the week. There’s been a focus on the upcoming French Presidential elections, ECB President Draghi has been batting back criticism from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation (regretting nothing), US markets fretting about the extent of timing of Trump reflation, not to mention ongoing tweets.
Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood
The supposedly “lively” conversation that President Trump and PM Turnbull had yesterday over the Australia-US refugee deal has gotten quite a deal of not just Australian press but international press coverage overnight.
Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations
More unwinding of the Trump lower taxes/higher infrastructure spending US$ reflation trade has again been the order of the day. The Bloomberg spot USD dollar index is down by ¾% as markets again sell the big buck, reacting to the latest statements from the new Administration, selling kicking off earlier in the session with some safe-haven buying of JPY and CHF in response to the immigration policies.
Markets Today: Don’t worry baby
Economic reports have been scant overnight. Trump, trade, executive orders and a White House press briefing have provided wire feedstock for news and trade into Asia trade today.
Markets Today: Walking back to happiness
It’s been a reversal back to USD strength overnight – including a late session kick along from the Fed Chair, more on that below - the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.35% before she stepped up to the plate, and another ½% since.
Markets Today: Seasons Greetings
As the markets quieten down for the holiday break, we reflect on the tumultuous year we’ve just been through: Trump, Brexit, the rise of far-right politics and the tide of anti-immigration fervour.
Markets Today: We can work it out
Janet Yellen gave a talk this morning reinforcing the commentary around the strength of the US economy, pointing to steady growth in jobs and rising living standards. A less rosy picture for Australia, of course, but, not bad enough for ratings agencies to act.
Markets Today: Are you ready? (The market is.)
It’s been a rather uneventful night as the offshore markets did some more final positioning ahead of tomorrow morning’s FOMC meeting.
Markets Today: All things must pass
Mario Draghi had the markets wondering whether the European Central Bank would extend its bond buying program or start tapering its commitment. In the end, it seems, they’ve done both.
Markets Today: La Dolce Vita
The market’s knee jerk reaction to “no” outcome from the Italian referendum saw the Euro fall back by over a big figure for an hour or so, but that was it.
Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016
Rising oil prices from early this year and again from the middle of the year have been associated with rising medium-to-longer term US inflationary expectations (and indeed expectations globally).
Markets Today: Magic bus
The USD continued to march a little higher, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up another 0.14%, gains mostly against the Euro, the Yen, and Sterling, the latter from some self-inflicted news.
Markets Today: Tangled up in red
It’s been an overnight session of digestion and reflection for the market, one week on now from the Presidential election.
Markets Today: Party in the USA
It’s been a night in which the US bond market has staged a mediocre rally – not quite a party – for most of the session, tilted to the belly of the curve and the long end. It looks to have been some profit taking after the surge in yields since the US election.
Markets Today: The heat is on
And it’s on two fronts this morning. The first is of course the election outcome as America votes to elect its 45th President. The second story relates to news breaking out of China yesterday that the authorities are stepping in to take the heat out of coal and steel-related prices.
Australian Markets Weekly: 7 November 2016
Another big story for the Australian economy this year has been the strength in bulk export commodity prices.
Markets Today: House of fun
The focus for markets overnight was well and truly back on the UK with Sterling the stand-out performer overnight, trading this morning with a solid 1.24 handle, a full three big figures above where it opened the week.
Markets Today: Comin’ back soon
This Fed meeting came with no press conference and updated forecasts for this meeting; that next comes at the December 15 meeting.
Markets Today: Boom Boom
The ECB meeting came and went with absolutely no change in policy, as expected.
Markets Today: Counting the beat
Ahead of today’s welter of Chinese GDP and activity data, the AUD is trading this morning almost bang on where it was yesterday afternoon.
Markets Today: A hard rain’s gonna fall
Selling of Sterling re-emerged in the Asia session yesterday and into London as the prospect of a “hard” exit from the EU loomed large.
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016
Having just returned from a client tour this past week in the Riverina in southern NSW, there was also one topic that is currently front and centre for local farmers, and that was “rain”.
Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow
Who says fairy tales don’t come true with the Western Bulldogs and Cronulla both taking the silverware in the AFL and NRL grand finals over the weekend. Great results for both teams.
Markets Today: Up, up and away
It’s now a sea of green in the US equity markets in reaction to the Fed leaving rates on hold this morning, leaving the Fed funds rate at 0.25-0.50%, as nearly universally expected.
Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over
A rather measured night again in the lead up to the FOMC tomorrow morning and the BoJ meeting today where the Bank has been honing its thinking on policy to lift inflation.
Markets Today: Gasoline dreams
Markets have been tapping their fingers overnight in the lead up to the Fed meeting. Currencies have traded in very contained ranges, the USD only somewhat softer again with the US Treasury curve up 1-2 basis points for the session.
Markets Today: Calm waters
Mental preparations for another onslaught of selling bonds and equities offshore were put on the backburner with markets becalmed overnight.
Australian Markets Weekly: 12 September 2016
The most market-sensitive events this week are an RBA speech Tuesday morning, the NAB Business Survey (also Tuesday) and the latest Labour Force statistics on Thursday.
Markets Today: What a difference a day makes
Well there’s one conspiracy theory that has come to nought. That Fed Governor Brainard – a monetary policy dove to now – had become more policy hawkish and indicate that next week’s September 20-32 FOMC would be “live”.
Markets Today: Proud Mario
Three main developments overnight, a spike in oil prices, a somewhat more content ECB President, and a renewed AUD warning from RBA Governor Stevens in an AFR interview, the AUD in the wake of the interview pulling back from over 0.77 to 0.7642 this morning.
Markets Today: Speak now
In a night of still very contained major FX crosses, Fed commentary has started to kick in from Jackson Hole.
Markets Today: Poundcake
It’s been a rather uneventful night for most of the major currencies, with the possible exception of Sterling.
Australian Markets Weekly – AUD forecast update: Stronger for longer; Fed dependent
The Australian dollar has opened this week close to 0.76 US cents, having lost some ground last week amid warnings from several key Fed speakers that the market is under-pricing the chances of a Fed rate hike this year
Markets Today: I can shop clearly now (the rain has gone)
Short sterling positions were dealt another blow overnight by a blockbuster rise in UK retail sales in July where the weather and the low currency has seen a very good month for the High Street.
Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again
It was an overnight session marked by two Fed speakers banging the drum (not as strongly as Keith Moon used to) warning that even the September 22 FOMC is not off the radar for a Fed rate increase.
Markets Today: Relax
The overnight session was neither strongly risk-on nor risk-off; the AUD has been testing higher levels overnight with the big dollar sold lower during the US session.
Australian Markets Weekly: 8 August 2016
Last week’s RBA rate cut has strengthened the argument that the RBA is uneasy about the outlook for Australian inflation.
Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger
It was pretty much all about the Bank of England overnight ahead of payrolls tonight. As my colleague from London Nick Parsons reminded us, there was the real potential for the BoE to over-promise and under-deliver, net GBP shorts according to IMM data at the greatest level of this series.
Markets Today: Take it easy
Released overnight, the US ISM Manufacturing release for July was barely a miss, coming in at 52.6 against consensus of 53.0.
Markets Today: How deep is your growth?
Weaker than expected US economic growth for the June quarter after an underwhelming outcome from the Bank of Japan on Friday set the tone for markets on Friday and at the open today.
Markets Today: Rumours
The revelation that the underlying CPI was not another repeat of the first quarter when growth was an anaemic 0.2% but pushed up this quarter to 0.5% had the market rethinking and repricing whether the RBA was indeed more likely than not to cut rates again next week.
Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer
The ECB’s policy meeting has come and gone without any policy action, though none was expected. At 1.1025, the EUR sits where it was late yesterday in the wake of some intra-session ECB meeting volatility.
Markets Today: Strange brew
Yesterday’s RBA Minutes with its dovish take and concerns about the activity side of the economy saw the local rates market move to price in a higher above-50% probability of an August RBA move (from 59% to 63%).
Markets Today: I can’t go for that (no can do)
It’s been a busy night in the UK, with PM Theresa May appointing her full new Ministry and of course the Bank of England meeting.
Markets Today: 2 Become 1
Anna Leadsom has stood down as a candidate for leadership of the UK Conservative Party, paving the way for Home Secretary Theresa May to be the next Prime Minister, expected to be formally installed Wednesday after PM Cameron’s resignation.
Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)
It was an eventful news day for the AUD yesterday, even if the currency was little changed, and is not breaking new ground this morning, S&P yesterday changing the outlook on Australia’s AAA rating from stable to negative.
Markets Today: Take the long way home
The USD weakened overnight, in a night of focus on Europe with the US out for its Independence Day holiday.
Markets Today: Waves
As a BBC commentator described it this morning, providing it doesn’t violate the laws of thermodynamics, anything can happen inside the British Conservative Party.
Markets Today: Don’t leave me this way
Lots of soul searching not doubt from EU leaders on day two of their summit with UK PM Cameron back home.
Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place
Whether it’s a near to end-quarter rebalancing or just some short-term perceived value after the knee-jerk post-Brexit sell off, risk appetite had something of a positive session overnight with equities and top-tier bond yields higher.
Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?
The risk-on mood that developed as Asia markets opened yesterday on the back of the weekend poll from the Sunday Mirror pointing to a swing back to the remain vote gathered more force overnight, especially in European markets.
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016
Brexit and local farm conditions too Thursday’s UK EU Referendum will occupy market attention this week. A poll being conducted by ComRes for the UK Sunday Mirror at the time news of the assassination of British MP Jo Cox hit the wires revealed a switch in voting favouring the remain vote. The percentage of those […]
Markets Today: Signs
As US markets close and Asia opens this morning, further damage to sentiment has been relatively limited.
Markets Today: Keep the dream alive
The final May Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs were left unrevised at 51.5, while the US Manufacturing ISM headline popped a little higher to 51.3 from 50.8 (50.3 was forecast).
Markets Today: Hold on
As far as the foreign exchange markets were concerned, the USD was a touch softer overnight after having made some gains in the Asia session yesterday.
Markets Today: Inch by inch
It’s been another night of measured markets with both European and US equities closing higher, US Treasury yields a little higher net on the day and the USD marking time. There has been a little more evident appetite for Sterling, while the Canadian dollar was also a little stronger, helped by higher oil prices and the Bank of Canada leaving rates on hold, as expected.
Australian Markets Weekly – Implications of low inflation for monetary policy
Today’s weekly focuses on what the low inflation environment means for monetary policy, and what discretion the RBA has in “looking through” low inflationary periods.
Markets Today: Sailing
Markets have been generally drifting with FX, equity markets and bond yields trading in contained ranges. The short end of the US Treasury curve edged a little higher.
Markets Today: On the prowl
It was the release this morning of the FOMC April Minutes that’s gotten the attention of the wires and a noticeable chunk of market reaction to boot in rates, currencies, equities and gold.
Markets Today: Kiwi
The US Energy Information Agency revised up its forecasts for oil prices for this year and next, lifting its forecast for WTI for this year by nearly $6/bbl to $40.32 from $34.37.
Markets Today: Bend me, shape me
While the market is very sensitive to the CPI and the AUD and rates markets might see an immediate knee-jerk reaction, the market is not hanging on this number as one that might swing the RBA into action or inaction at upcoming meetings.
Markets Today: When doves cry
The AUD has flown back down with the 77 handle this morning, pulled back somewhat by a dip in oil prices for once, WTI down $0.59 to $43.60 and Brent off $0.91 to $44.89, the Aussie’s commodity cousins, the CAD, NOK, RUB and the NZD all lower this morning.
Markets Today: You can(’t) always get what you want
When the US after-market for oil opened early in our day yesterday, WTI and Brent opened around 6% down on Friday’s close.
Markets Today: Crazy little thing called ……risk
Risk sentiment took something of a breather overnight without going into reverse.
Markets Today: Taking care of business
Yesterday’s NAB Business Survey bolted a stronger 76 handle on to the AUD, the currency finding support through the day and again overnight, trading this morning toward the top of its overnight range, currently at 0.7685/90, up 1.2%.
Markets Today: Handle with care
It’s been a night of consolidation in the main as markets await the arrival of key data over the next 24 hours with Super Friday’s deluge.
Markets Today: Drift away
The commodity currencies were sold lower overnight, with the AUD feeling the brunt of the selling.
Markets Today: Night moves
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech yesterday came and went without any fanfare as far as AUD comment was concerned
Markets Today: Something in the air
The centrepiece of overnight attention was always going to be the ECB policy meeting.
Markets Today: Bound for glory (for now anyhow)
Ever had one of those moments when you start the day and you have a rather weird moment to start the day?
Markets Today: Power trip
It has not been a massive night in terms of market direction, the Australian dollar again capturing interest and making some further net gains.
Markets Today: Riders on the storm
Well, not a storm, but the AUD is riding higher after much stronger-and-expected GDP for the December quarter.
Markets Today: Lift
It’s been an interesting night as far as the markets were concerned.
FW: Markets Today: Back in black
It was a session of two halves with a risk off during European session spilling into the first part of the New York sessio/
Markets Today: Stay (just a little bit longer)
In the wake of yesterday’s weaker employment report, the AUD/USD jagged down from around 7182 to 7140 and that’s proven to be a base overnight in a 30 point range.
Markets Today: Carry on
It was something of a risk-on night with commodity and emerging market currencies back in favour for once.
Australian Markets Weekly – The economy’s rotation and the tourist dollar
RBA watching international developments closely; far from panicking about the current state and momentum in the domestic economy with signs of the economy’s emerging rotation
Markets Today: We didn’t start the fire (did we?)
Janet Yellen did her return testimony overnight, this time to the Senate.
Markets Today: It must have been supply
When the IEA released its monthly report last month, it caused quite a flurry warning “the oil market could drown in over-supply”.
Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life
In the words of my BNZ colleague Jason Wong, not even strong words by ECB President Draghi and BOJ Governor Kuroda have been enough to talk down their currencies against the big dollar’s recent dip.
Markets Today: Tossin’ and turnin’
In the aftermath of the RBA Board meeting, the AUD was whipped around, initially rallying on “no change”
Australian Markets Weekly – RBA to hold the line on rates
Domestic economy still arguing for unchanged RBA policy
Markets Today: In Monetary Policy We Trust
Friday’s sharp improvement in global risk sentiment sparked by the Bank of Japan’s largely unexpected decision to join the ECB, Danish and Swiss National Banks
Markets Today: I walk the line
The FOMC post meeting statement played a very straight bat, not locking themselves in to one course or the other as far as the March 17 meeting decision is concerned.
Markets Today: I’ve been waiting for a (rally) like you
And yes, it was still all about oil with another classic short squeeze, this time seemingly triggered by comments from the Iraqi Oil Minister speaking at a conference in Kuwait.
Markets Today: Runaway train
Another volatile night my friends. Well that was as far as equity markets are concerned the E600 European index down a cool 3.2%.
Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight
Spanish politics has been a watch point for markets since the weekend with the national election not producing a clear majority for any one party and not an obvious coalition likely to be formed, according to Spanish political commentators.
Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth halted for now
We draw attention in this Weekly to the importance of growth in the population to the economy and how population growth has slowed in recent years.
Markets Today: Commoditised selling
While European equities closed higher overnight, the US market opened down and it’s remained that way into the last hour of trade.
Markets Today: Be grateful for small mercies
Initially it was a choppy night for markets, carrying on with last week’s risk-off mood with oil initially testing new lows and European stocks heavy.
Markets Today: Slip sliding away
A lot of the attention overnight remained centred on the commodity space with oil prices down another 1%, Brent crude at $39.70, down 0.97%.
Markets Today: More commodity carnage
Commodities were front and centre of market attention overnight, with oil prices taking another sizeable hit, both WTI and Brent crude down between 5-6% in the wake of OPEC officially abandoning its 30mb target late last week.
Australian Markets Weekly: 7 December 2015
Economy a little ahead of RBA forecast track.
Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive
“Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals,” Fed Chair Yellen told the Economic Club of Washington overnight.
Markets Today: Just another manic Monday
Well not quite, in terms of manic that is. China received the official nod from the IMF for inclusion in the SDR as entirely expected
Today’s Market Update: Keeping the dreams alive
It’s been a night of consolidation for currencies with the US dollar giving up some ground, the Bloomberg spot US dollar index losing 0.67% overnight.
Markets Today: Paris terror attacks naturally front of mind
News of the multiple terrorist attacks in Paris and claimed by Islamic State came about 4.30pm New York time so after futures markets and US stock exchanges had closed for the week but before spot FX and cash bonds had finished.
Markets Today: Sterling effort
Lots of interest overnight whether ECB President Mario Draghi would throw more fuel onto the ECB stimulus expectation fire, schedule to speak at a BoE sponsored open forum on Financial Market Reform event in London.
Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger
Not a big night as far as market movements are concerned, one extension of a theme being the continued ascendancy of the big dollar that has gained a little more momentum, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.12%.
Markets Today: Fado fading?
A night of consolidation for markets with inconsequential data not pushing markets one way or the other.
Markets Today: On standby
Not a massive session as far as new market direction was concerned overnight ahead of payrolls tonight.
Markets Today: Front and centre
Markets took their cue from Fed Chair Janet Yellen overnight, testifying before the US House Financial Services Committee on bank regulation.
Markets today: Holding pattern
Currencies, for the most part, took a back seat in a largely so-so session for broader financial markets.
Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin
Unlike Wednesday and Thursday morning (post FOMC, RBNZ), Friday was not a big night for markets and following the BoJ’s earlier ‘no change’. End of month rebalancing flows appeared to dominate price action, meaning a slightly softer US dollar (DXY -0.35%, BBDXY -0.42%).
Markets Today: On the road again
With the echo of the FOMC still ringing in its ear, the market re-priced the odds of the Fed moving in December, lifting the probability to a 50/50 call, those odds having been tracking at a less than one in three chance before the FOMC.
Today’s Market Update: What to buy
The US dollar sits near the top of the currency leader board this morning, retaining its composure, though more by default of weakness elsewhere.
Markets Today: The countdown
It was a contained night for markets, equities a little heavy for no apparent reason other than perhaps some nerves ahead of Thursday morning’s FOMC announcement.
Markets Today: Easy
ECB President Draghi stepped up to the plate last night, setting equity markets alight and scuttling the EUR. Draghi effectively preannounced further easing in policy at its 3 December meeting.
Markets Today: A slight reversal of fortune
Not a massive night for currency markets and markets in general, though with risk-off tinges; stocks were flat in Europe and softer into the US close.
Markets Today: A bit of a yawner
The NZD at least has shown some movement and to some surprise, the Canadian dollar sits at the top of the G10 FX leader-board.
Markets Today: A minute of your time
The Sep FOMC minutes came and went and when all is said and done, it has not clarified whether the Fed is likely to be hiking before year end or later.
Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets
It was a night for risk assets again with the S&P closing out its fifth day of gains, up another 1.85% with EM and European equities also performing well, the Eurostoxx 600 index up a cool 3.01%, with a sea of green gains across this writer’s screen.
Australian Markets Weekly: Six reasons the RBA should not cut rates
In this Weekly, we set out six reasons why the RBA should not cut rates. Before that, it’s worthwhile to review Friday’s US payrolls report that was one out of the box, softer than expected in almost all respects.
Markets Today: There is something to see here
Anyone looking for redeeming features in Friday’s soft US payrolls report was reduced to noting that the weakness in average earnings (flat on the month and unchanged at 2.2% y/y) may have been down to the fact that the Sep 15 mid-month pay day was excluded from the calculation
Markets Today: No killer inflation punch from August PCE deflator
It’s been a combination of factors that have coalesced to weaken the AUD overnight, but it has not been a cathartic move down, just another orderly look under 0.70. There have been weak equity markets in both the Europe and US.
Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth
In this weekly update we tease out some implications of slower population growth that’s been evident now for the past two years, with a further step down reported by the Australian Statistician last week.
Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again
Another choppy night of trading with hints of risk-off still dogging equity markets and supporting bond markets, while commodities were non-directional with copper down marginally but other metals mostly rose, including the yellow metal.
Markets Today: Mixed emotions
It’s been a night of mixed emotions as far as risk sentiment is concerned. It was not helped initially by yesterday’s weaker China manufacturing reading, and the quickly emerging shadow of Volkswagen’s issues.
Markets Today: Big dollar rules still
Not a massive night for price action on the currency markets, but what we did see was signs of a little further strength in the USD.
Australian Markets Weekly – from across the border
In this weekly, we review the week that was, the week ahead, and NAB’s David de Garis gives his reflections on a recent visit to South Australia.
Markets Today: Stiff upper lip
It was the makings of a risk-on mood for markets overnight and a night when the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was hanging tough about the healthy outlook for the UK economy and still harbouring thoughts of a UK rate rise coming into focus in the first part of next year.
Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers
In this Weekly, we are enclosing a recent research piece from our Senior Currency Strategist Emma Lawson on the commodities that are (and which will be) important drivers of the Australian dollar, including the outlook. We also preview local data and RBA speeches for the week ahead.
Markets Today: Let’s get loud
The Euro is weaker this morning and the USD a touch stronger thanks to ECB President Draghi banging the drum about QE, the ECB staff downgrading their Euro-zone growth and inflation forecasts and a pretty comforting slug of US data.
Markets Today: Joyride
A more measured night. Shanghai finished down smalls yesterday (-0.2%) ahead of a four day long weekend to mark China’s victory in WWII and while European bourses had something of a see-saw night closed higher.
Markets Today: Would I lie to you
Equity markets harboured something of a defensive tone, but the oil market kicked higher again on the little to no fundamental news, signs of a classic short squeeze.
Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest
The Economist this week carries a topical article on commodities, “Goodbye to all that: a decade of binging on raw materials may leave an even longer hangover”, outlining the pressure on producers now from declining prices.
Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing
Further weakness in oil prices, a more settled Chinese renminbi and a solid US July retail sales report caught the market’s attention overnight. News of disruption to the major Chinese port of Tianjin after the explosion Wednesday has not so far affected the outlook for iron ore prices too much.
Markets Today: T-38 and counting
With just over a month to go until the Sep 18 FOMC meeting announcement, Fed speakers remain right under the spotlight. Last night we heard from two, Denis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed President and voter and Stanley Fischer, no 2 at the Fed each with their own perspective.
Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race
Interest overnight in what the BoE Governor had to say after their meeting and how “hawkish” he might be, focus of course also in their forecasts in the latest quarterly Inflation Report.
Markets Today: Where you go, I follow
Oil took centre stage last night with West Texas Intermediate down 3.8% to $45.33/bbl and Brent crude down a cool 5.0% to $49.60, WTI the lowest since March 19 and Brent below $50/bbl for the first time since January when oil selling was at its most intense.
Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA
Event risk aplenty this week with the RBA August Board meeting tomorrow, Friday’s RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) and key economy reports. Among those data points, the most market sensitive is tomorrow’s retail sales along with a wider trade deficit.
Markets Today: From Greece to China
Very much a risk-off night for markets with equities and some commodities taking the brunt after Chinese stocks lurched lower in afternoon trade to finish down an eye-glazing 8½% on the day. A year ago, the Shanghai composite was 2,177; yesterday it closed at 3,752.
Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper
It’s been a night again where the market has not had to be besotted with global geo-politics such as Greece and has been able to focus on the flow of data and more reports out of the US earnings season.
Markets Today: Inflationary risks to the higher side today
No doubt RBA Governor Stevens would have a wry grin with the partial pull-back in the USD overnight with the AUD/USD the best performer among the majors popping back above 0.74 overnight and where it sits this morning.
Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece
Not big moves on the currency front overnight, though the USD was somewhat stronger as the ECB announced that it had turned on the liquidity spigot for Greece again and what data there was for the US was added a little more incremental evidence the economy is making further progress.
Markets Today: Greece lives to fight another day with even more debt
After a truly marathon effort, the EU leaders and Greece reached a deal in the early hours of Monday morning Europe time. Another bailout, but with no debt haircut.
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey
After a drawn out sequence of EuroGroup, EU Leaders and side meetings through last week, the EU Leaders have been meeting overnight in another drawn out and, at times, acrimonious attempt to put together a deal that would result in a third bailout package and keep Greece in the Euro.
Markets Today: Judgment Day: nearly, perhaps; commodities take heat
Naturally, in the aftermath of the Greece referendum on the bailout producing such a decisive “no” vote to European creditor bailout terms, that was always going to be the main talk across news and wire services overnight.
Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off
We expected this week to be one of fast moving events, and that’s how it’s playing out. Greek PM Alex Tsipras has been speaking saying that he will do whatever he can to protect the Greek people
Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?
If you had come in this morning, looked at the news released on the US economy overnight and how the US bond and equity markets had traded, you would not be surprised at all with the prices on the screen this morning, irrespective of what has and has not been going on as far as Greece is concerned.
Markets Today: 11 days of 11th hour negotiations
11 days of 11th hour negotiations: It sure feels like it. It’s still Greek news setting the pace for the market.
Australian Weekly Markets: Last chance for Greece, again
Here we are again, still writing about Greece. Will a deal be put together that is acceptable to Greece and its creditors? Greece is asking for debt relief, Europe asking for further economic reforms to pensions and taxation. The 11th hour for Greece is approaching, yet again.
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, FOMC focus and more RBA speeches
The market is focussed on the next steps after the breakdown in talks between Greece and its European creditors overnight and Thursday’s Federal Open Market Committee releasing its latest forecasts and views on Thursday morning our time.
Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue
It’s been a whippy, but in the event, mostly an up week for the AUD, starting with a better NAB Business Survey for May, disappointing consumer confidence, RBA’s Stevens keeping the rate easing door ajar and yesterday’s strong employment report.
Australian Markets Weekly: NAB Survey boosted by Budget
NAB Business Survey for May was a positive start to this week’s data set that culminates in Thursday’s Labour Force report for May.
Markets Today: Another step down the road we go
As has been touted in recent days, the IMF confirmed that Greece has asked the IMF to bundle its four June payments into one, delaying therefore the €301mn payment due to the Fund tonight
Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece
Greece news and chatter continues to permeate markets as Greece gets closer to the first payment to the IMF due June 5. Reports of continued losses at Greek banks and deposit outflows continues to weigh on sentiment as liquidity remains at a premium.
Markets Today: Expecting the Capex to transition too
Something of a risk-on night for equities and bonds with Greek PM Tsipras saying that a solution was “close” seemingly supporting investor sentiment.
Australian Markets Weekly: Tracking the Capex transition
2015-16 Capex expectations an important element in the investment outlook
Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts
The Euro-zone preliminary PMI readings for May hit the screens early in the European session, revealing something of a net recovery for the Euro-zone, the manufacturing index up to 52.3 from 52.0.
Markets Today: Just a minute of your time please
It’s the week of central bank meeting minutes. After Tuesday’s RBA Minutes (and Lowe’s speech Monday) reminded the market the absence of a bias in no way restricts their policy options.
How will the markets react to the Federal Budget?
NAB’s Senior Economist, David De Garis gives his views on what to expect from Tuesday’s Federal Budget.
Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie
It’s been a very eventful past two sessions for the AUD that sits atop the major FX leader board, trading at 0.7935 in early trade this morning. The reaction of the AUD immediately after the RBA statement said it all.
Markets Today: Stand and deliver
A night of recent ranges as far as the major currencies was the order of the overnight session, the AUD/USD marking time ahead of the RBA decision today at 2.30pm. As background to the $A, iron ore spot prices pulled back again yesterday by $0.95 to $56.18, gold rose 1.13% and LME copper by 1.0%.
Markets Today: US Fed keeping options open with deliberately vague guidance
The FOMC statement issued earlier this morning has made it clear that there is no pre-determined timeline for Fed rate lift-off.
Markets Today: $A tops the leaderboard overnight, AUD/USD up over 0.80
The overnight session was one of US$ weakness and $A strength, trades that gathered momentum early in the London session, a session marked by a big miss on US consumer confidence.
Markets Today: The battle for the low end
It was a case of softer than expected readings on both sides of the Atlantic overnight, but in the wash up, the market was inclined to give more credence to the softer suite of US economy reports than for Europe’s.
Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return
AUD/NZD parity party celebrations will just have to be put back into the cupboard for now, courtesy of yesterday’s higher than expected AU CPI, headline and underlying inflation higher by up to a tenth.
Markets Today: Parity party anyone?
Watching the horrific wind and rain maps of the Sydney area must have seen many planes circling and hoping to land or simply stuck on the tarmac. Markets were also in a holding pattern overnight.
Weekly Market Video Wrap: 2 April 2015
NAB Director & Senior Economist, David de Garis, shares a market update for the week ending 2 April 2015
Australian Markets Weekly – Building boom continues plus Revised forecast path of US Fed Funds rate
NAB’s Australian economy forecast of 2.9% GDP growth over the course of 2015, picking up to 3.3% growth through 2016 encompasses 11.2% growth in dwelling investment through this year, and 6.9% forecast through 2016.
Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely
We preview this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and look to tomorrow’s RBA March Board Minutes. The focus will be on the Committee’s forward guidance and forecasts, and whether they can still be “patient” before beginning to normalise the stance of monetary policy.
Weekly Market Video Wrap: 6 March 2015
NAB Director & Senior Economist, David de Garis, shares a market update for the week ending 6 March 2015.
Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up
If there was any take away from last week’s January labour force report it was that a gradual trend rise in Australia’s unemployment rate remains in place. And this is despite some modest increase in the underlying pace of new job creation.
Weekly Market Video Wrap: 13 February 2015
NAB Director & Senior Economist, David de Garis, shares a market update for the week ending 13 February 2015.
Markets Today: Ukrainian ceasefire accord lifts sentiment somewhat
The Ukraine and Russia agree overnight on a ceasefire accord to take effect from this Sunday in a marathon meeting in Minsk, Belarus between PM Poroshenko, Putin, Merkel and Hollande.
Markets homing in on the Euro
The US$ ended last week on a strong note and started the week with more momentum, aided by further Euro weakness. The Greek election has come and gone with anti-austerity Syriza Party winning the largest number of seats with its young leader Alexis Tsipras the winner.
Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan
Nothing could be clearer than the current economic and policy divide than between the US and Europe. As the Fed ponders rate lift-off and US consumer sentiment hits its highest level for 11 years, the ECB last week has been putting together a QE plan that will get some sort of approval from Germany.
Weekly market wrap
Weekly market update week ending 16 January 2015
Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore
The big news overnight was the completely unexpected Swiss National Bank abandoning its EUR/CHF 1.20 floor it’s been defending since September 2011. As recently as last week, the 1.20 floor was described by SNB President Thomas Jordan as “absolutely central” in light of negative inflation.
Commodity market volatility the order of the day
There’s been some more significant price action in commodities to report from the past 24 hours. At lunchtime yesterday Asian LME metals prices went into free-fall on the back of no apparent news other than playing catch up to what we’ve seen on oil and maybe even the AUD.
Still testing its specific gravity
Oil remains the centre of attention though the further dip not of the same cathartic proportions as the night before but enough it seems to continue to dog equity market sentiment, US energy stocks down another 1.2% with WTI and Brent down 0.4% and 0.8% respectively.
Oil prices take another lashing
Oil prices have again been the stand out story overnight with Brent now clearly below $50/bbl, having tested below $50 last week, and both WTI and Brent down 5-5½% overnight to below $46 for WTI and currently $46.66 for Brent.
Markets whip-sawed across asset classes
Hard to know where to start this report with extremely whippy and severe movements across asset classes overnight. It was a wild night for all sorts of reasons, not the least being the siege in Sydney’s CBD that was ended in the early hours of this morning with a sad loss of life for some innocent people.
Weekly market wrap
Weekly market update week ending 12 December 2014
Australian Markets Weekly
Last Friday saw the third annual pre-Xmas interview of the RBA Governor by the Australian Financial Review. The headlines were: "Governor wants an $A at 75cents" and "RBA pushes back on rates cuts".
Oil takes another hit
There was another step lower in oil prices on Friday night with Brent down another $1.69/bbl to $61.09 and WTI $-2.14 to $57.81. No surprise then that US consumers are rejoicing at the prospect of lower gasoline prices.
Australian Markets Weekly
e week commences against the backdrop of Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report for November (which included favourable diffusion indexes and temp help trends signalling ongoing stronger outcomes).
NAB Financial Markets Weekly Wrap
NAB financial markets report week ending 5th December 2014
Weekly Market Wrap
Weekly financial markets video week ending 28th November 2014
Financial markets weekly wrap
Weekly financial markets updated week ending 21st November 2014
Financial Markets Video – Federal Reserve to end Q3
Financial Markets video update week ending 24th October 2014
Financial Markets Video – Business and consumer confidence surveys
Weekly Financial Markets Video update
Looking ahead for the week to Australia, New Zealand & China
NAB Business Confidence and W-MI Consumer Sentiment, NAB Resi Property Survey; RBA’s Debelle speaks twice
Looking ahead to Australia, New Zealand and China
What to watch, week commencing 6 October
Australian Markets Weekly
In their most recent quarterly RBA Bulletin released last week, the RBA published a summary of their business liaison program, how they use that to stay abreast of current business conditions and how it has been invaluable in providing warnings of any sudden changes in the business cycle.
Australian economy still growing in Q2
After (unrevised) growth of 1.1% in the March quarter, growth of 0.5% in Q2 with the known 0.9% drag from net exports was a more than respectable outcome. Headline growth was a tad above the 0.4% consensus and our own 0.2% call.
Australia, New Zealand and China update
RBA on hold Tuesday, Stevens speaking and a soft GDP report Wednesday, along with mixed July data: strong retail sales but soft building approvals. Pre-Q2 GDP partials also due Mon/Tues; NAB Online retail index due Wednesday
Australian Markets Weekly
As part of the current local reporting season last week, we heard that both the Gladstone and Australia Pacific LNG projects are on track and on budget.
RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce
The RBA’s half-yearly testimony had a somewhat more positive tone without going overboard on growth specifics nor on when a more discernible upturn might arrive. (The Bank’s formal forecasts were of course outlined in their quarterly statement earlier).
Australian Markets Weekly
Speaking with clients in Adelaide last week, it was something of a surprise that the NAB Business Survey improved further in July, with NAB Business Conditions making some further ground to now be above its long term average.
Australian markets weekly
A final word on the Australia-US labour market comparison we wrote about last week. We would not have been surprised to see the US rate lower than Australia’s rate by now before seeing July’s US non-farm payrolls and Australia’s Labour Force report as they had almost converged
Australia, New Zealand and China Update
Key events in Australia, New Zealand and China. What to Watch, week commencing 14 July
Australia, New Zealand and China Update
There are some more meaty reports due on the economy this week, commencing with the ANZ Job Ads report for June (L: -5.6%), a last partial look into labour demand ahead of Thursday’s labour force report.
Australia, New Zealand and China
Key events in Australia, New Zealand and China. What to Watch, week commencing 30 June
Australia, New Zealand and China
Key events in Australia, New Zealand and China/India. What to Watch, week commencing 23 June
Australia, New Zealand and China/India
Key events in Australia, New Zealand and China/India. What to Watch, week commencing 16 June