A quieter night overnight, with no large moves, but no strong reversals either. US equities eeked out fractional gains, while Europe was still weak. Yields were a little lower and currencies in G10 for the most part flat. Oil did rise and Glencore, yesterday’s prophet of doom, bounced 17%.
Author
Emma Lawson
“Emma also makes regular comments to print, radio and TV media on currencies and global financial markets. ”
Emma is a Senior Currency Strategist and works with the global currency strategy team. Emma advises the Bank’s dealing rooms and clients on the Australian dollar and global currencies more generally.
Emma also makes regular comments to print, radio and TV media on currencies and global financial markets.
Emma has a Masters degree in Economics from the University of Adelaide.
Emma has been at the NAB since 2011 and previously has thirteen years experience working for global investment banks, as an economist and currency strategist, in Sydney, London and more recently in Hong Kong.
Recently Published Articles
Markets Today: A big week
Friday’s tone was set by Fed Chair Yellen, early in the Sydney session. In this, she backed up the Fed speakers post the FOMC, which have reiterated that the Fed are looking to raise interest rates this year.
Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses
It’s a bit of pick and mix for explanations regarding market moves in the last 24 hours. There has been no top tier economic data, no new speeches, or surprises.
Markets Today: Scaring the Horses
Not sure this was the reaction the Fed were looking for when they decided to pause and give a shout out to the struggling EM economies and global economic risks.
Markets Today: Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled
The time arrived but the Fed couldn’t bring itself to raise rates for the first time since the Financial Crisis. In a hugely anticipated FOMC meeting, the market had priced just over a quarter percent chance of a hike, and just under 50% of economists expected a move, but they remained on hold.
Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…
Another relatively calm and comfortable session heading into the FOMC meeting. With markets and economists split on the outcome, something will move if the Fed does, or it doesn’t. So enjoy the quiet day today, ahead of tomorrow.
Markets Today: Do It Already
Do It Already is the headline of a Bloomberg article today, but mirrors the sentiment in articles across the press and the discussions on our own floor. Markets are like rabbits in spotlights, uncertain as to which way to shift, just in case there is a move by the Fed.
Markets Today: Where is everybody?
There is a flurry of opinions, newsflow, chatter and speculation about the Fed this week, but at the end of the day, there isn’t much that is new to report for markets. Still waiting for the FOMC.
Markets Today: More Waiting
It’s been relatively quiet from Friday and likely to stay that way for a few more days yet. The news flow has been limited and what there has been, has been clouded by one-offs.
Markets Today: Spring has sprung
The global financial markets are breathing a sigh of relief and enjoying the advent of Spring here in the Southern Hemisphere. Happy days: the Fed may wait a little while before raising rates and China seems to have everything sorted.
Markets Today: Draining reserve pools
With the US out for Labour Day and not a lot of economic data elsewhere, it was a relatively quiet night. Market moves were somewhat restrained, awaiting guidance from the upcoming FOMC meeting (next week) and how China’s economy deals with the current uncertainty.
Markets Today: The Merry Go Around
Things aren’t really getting better. The circular theme of markets continues, with equities weakening, weighing on broader risk, weighing on currencies, weighing on equities. And so it goes. While the Fed waits to decide to raise rates, this is not helping the global markets.
Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)
In the immortal words of Johnny Cash (singing) “I ‘m going to Jackson…” Nope, can’t do it justice, although Ray (MT’s co-author) is definitely having an influence on me. But we do see the central bankers heading to Jackson Hole (JH)
Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty
Difficult huh? You thought you knew which direction this was all going? After big moves there can often be big reversals. It doesn’t mean that the underlying issue is resolved but rather is often a factor of positioning, liquidity and uncertainty. We have a jumble of all three going on.
Markets Today: Can we have some more? Please
China did what the market was looking for (on Monday) by easing policy, but it appears that the markets want more. Thanks, but we are not quite happy yet.
Markets Today: Inflation not employment
Inflation is back in vogue, and (in the US) it is being kept lower by a stronger USD and lower commodity prices.
Markets Today: Double whammy China and the Fed
Direction was taken from the weakness in the Chinese equity market yesterday, as the overnight sessions provided little new news of its own.
Markets Today: Renminbi Me
It’s getting interesting. And it is likely to remain that way for a little while yet. China’s move to a more market orientated currency is causing volatility and uncertainty and it might take a while until there is clarity.
Markets Today: Restorative or War?
Markets are a little wary of the implications of China’s devaluation yesterday, combine that with uncertainty around the Fed’s upcoming interest rate hike and mix in Northern Hemisphere summer liquidity and you have a slightly uneasy, conflicting set of market moves overnight.
Markets Today: Why not rather than why
Much of yesterday and the overnight sessions were characterised by relatively quiet moves, with bursts of activity.
Markets Today: If you don’t like it, change it
It appears markets have run out of oomph. We have gone back to typical summer markets, where there is a drifting of trends but not a lot to get your teeth into.
Markets Today: Not yet, but soon
Sitting, waiting for the Fed, in summer markets. That pretty much characterises the last day, which was surprising after the angst of the prior period.
Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking
Back to our day jobs, with a reprieve on being political or equity analysts, we can return to the global economy. Markets also chose to ignore the after-party cleaning up in Greece, to focus on central bank speak – both actual and what is to come.
Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC
While being glued to the long running soap opera of the Greek debt situation, there is another, more mini-series like, show going on in the East. And like Netflix versus NBC (who shows Days of our Lives) it has crept up and has captured everyone’s attention.
Markets Today: More homework needed
Markets were disappointed by the lack of progress in Greece overnight; albeit they should be used to that by now. It did lead to a big drop in European yields and equity market, EUR also underperformed for much of the day.
Markets Today: Default? Does it matter?
Greece has officially missed its payment to the IMF, but markets are seemingly unconcerned. We have passed that mattering for now.
Markets Today: The Real Thing
Well, we didn’t see that coming, neither did the Institutions (nee Troika), nor the markets. Greece has pulled the negotiations plug at the last minute and put the deal to a national referendum (5 July) AFTER the deadline for payment (1 July).
Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed
All is well, solved, sorted; just not signed. Markets are pretty content with the idea that Greece and its creditors will do a deal before the June 30 deadline. And the Fed will hike in September, and China can avoid an equity market accident.
Markets Today: Waiting for Godot
Except he never came. We wait, there is a vast amount of commentary and expectation, and even a fair degree of optimism. And nothing might happen for a few days at least. But in this case, there will be an endpoint.
Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself
The FOMC meeting was a bit of a mark-to-reality exercise for markets, after perhaps getting a little ahead of itself. This applies both to the intra-day moves and the direction over recent weeks.
Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation
There is a nervous tinge to the commentary overnight, but market moves have been relatively light, and the same is expected for today. Equities are modestly higher in the US and Europe, yields are lower generally, while the USD outperformed.
Markets Today: All about the yields
You’d think it was a quiet night overnight: US equities were flat, European stocks a little down and currencies traded in a very tight range.
Markets Today: Got To Expect it
Well if Mr Draghi says it is so, we’d better get used to it. Bond yields, particularly in Germany, continued their rise yesterday; despite the ECB’s Draghi telling us that they are committed to their QE program.
Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields
Big moves overnight, not all of them consistent, but they may have caught out investors positioning for a rise in risk aversion. As news of a possible deal between Greece and its creditors came in, bond yields – led by Germany, rose sharply.
Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs
Seemingly there were many “light bulb” moments overnight, when competing ideas, that have been around awhile, suddenly gain traction and markets run with them.
Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock
Tick tock, tick tock – that’s both the sound of time passing on one of the quietest days in the markets but also that of the countdown to Greece needing to come to an agreement with its creditors.
Markets Today: Remember US? Still doing QE
The ECB reminded markets that they were still there and still implementing QE. That allowed for a rally in European stocks and led to underperformance by the EUR.
Market Today: and relax
After Wednesday night’s excitement, there was a collective deep breath overnight, with some of the preceding moves reversed. There was little newsflow but what there was allowed for some relaxation of the prior day’s anxiety.
Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band
If you pull an elastic band hard enough, it will snap back and might hurt. It seems we are getting that in yields, but we know that the band runs out of energy at some point.
Markets Today: What a tangled web
We are likely in for an interesting debate ahead: Central banks lower policy accommodation to astonishing levels and then suggest that markets might be a touch expensive.
Markets Today: May Day
Today is a holiday in much of Asia and Europe (Happy May Day) but that doesn’t stop the dataflow.
End of Summer complete with snooze
It was particularly quiet overnight, with the US on holidays. The poor European and UK data didn’t worry markets much, which, in the main, were taking a little nap
Weekly Financial Markets video – Geopolitical Risk & Central Banks
Key economic insights from this week and the week ahead