AUTHORS

James Glenn

James Glenn

Economist - Asia, metals and bulk commodities

“James is responsible for monitoring and forecasting the emerging Asian economies ...”

James joined NAB early in 2011 from the Reserve Bank of Australia where he worked for four years. He was involved in analysis of overseas economies and commodities, as well as business investment and residential property within Australia.

Before this, James taught economics at the University of Western Sydney, and was employed as an economic forecaster with Integral Energy.

He graduated from the University of Western Sydney (with first class honours in Economics) and was a recipient of the Honours Economic Society Award (HESA) in 2006. James also holds a Bachelors degree in Law.

At NAB, James is responsible for monitoring and forecasting the emerging Asian economies with a particular emphasis on China, and is also a member of the commodities team.

RECENTLY PUBLISHED ARTICLES

Movements in the residential property market affect everyone – whether you’re an investor, an owner occupier, or a renter. After several years of incredibly strong house price growth, primarily in Sydney and Melbourne, there is now heated debate over where prices are likely to move.

Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US, and some recent…

On the demand side, industrial activity has improved in 2014, but recent indicators have been mixed. In China, the industrial sector appears to have stabilised following signs of moderation in recent months. Mini stimulus measures may have assisted the improvement.

Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US.

Business conditions for ASX 300 maintained momentum in the first quarter of 2014 – the broader economy weakened as it dipped back into negative territory. Confidence for larger firms surged to its highest level in the 3-year history of the survey.

Prices for most industrial metals have moved lower in response to growth concerns in China and uncertainty over the unwinding of commodity financing deals. However, supply side events are supporting prices for Nickel in particular.

The average price of gold rose by around 1½% in January and has lifted a further 4½% in February to date, the first consecutive rise since late 2012. Prices have been volatile of late, but are currently trading at around $1,330 per ounce.

Business conditions for larger firms improved significantly in the December quarter – outperforming firms in the broader economy. However, confidence weakened slightly for larger firms – dropping below conditions and breaking away from the exuberance of the broader economy.

Our expectations that China will achieve its growth target this year remain unchanged. Domestic demand has strengthened recently, with consumer confidence improving, while exports increased strongly during November – contributing to the widest trade surplus for four years.

Metals prices remain well below peaks recorded earlier in the year but have been relatively range bound, fluctuating with the ebbs and flows of economic news. As usual, news relating to US Fed policy and the Chinese economy has been particularly relevant.

China has one of the most important labour markets in the world. This is true for a number of reasons. The most apparent is that it has the largest labour market in the world, and rapid income growth is generating a middle class in China that is expected to define the global economy

China remains on track to achieve its growth target for the year with domestic demand holding up in October, while exports picked up from the disappointing outcome in September. Industrial production was slightly better than expectations for the month.

As the Chinese economy enters a transitional phase in its development, many are now questioning what this will mean for its future economic performance. The IMF recently examined a number of scenarios for how China’s recent investment driven growth model could unfold over coming years.

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