AUTHORS

John Sharma

John Sharma

Economist

“John has a first class Honours in Economics from Melbourne University and is a CFA Charterholder. ”

John Sharma is the Sovereign Risk Economist for the National Australia Bank, and is also entrusted with the coverage of India. John has been in the NAB Economics team since August 1999, and in the Sovereign Risk role since March 2013.

Prior to joining the Sovereign Risk area, John was in the Industry Economics team (with responsibilities for Property, Construction, Hospitality and Transport), followed by a role as the domestic Macro Economist, with responsibility for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Australian Economy as well as in preparing the NAB Monthly, Quarterly and SME Business Surveys.

John has a first class Honours in Economics from Melbourne University and is a CFA Charterholder.

RECENTLY PUBLISHED ARTICLES

Indian economic growth decelerated in the March 2017 quarter, with real GDP expanding by 6.1% in yoy terms.

No FTA yet, but deepening trade prospects.

Prime Minister Turnbull visits India after important economic reforms.

The RBI, somewhat surprisingly, maintained the policy repo rate at 6.25%. Uncertainty about the effects of demonetisation and sticky core inflation were factors.

The RBI cut the policy rate by 25bp to 6.25% at the October meeting.

The RBI held the policy (Repo) rate at 6.5%, as expected. NAB Economics is forecasting a 25bp cut in rates to 6.25% in the December quarter, on expectation of softer food prices.

The April 5th Monetary policy meeting was a landmark in terms of the policy measures announced. The 25bp cut in the policy rate was accompanied by a raft of measures to boost liquidity and ensure more effective monetary transmission by banks.

India’s economy accelerated in the September quarter 2015, with Real GDP growing by 7.4% yoy, up from 7% in the June quarter. NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.5% expansion in 2015, followed by 7.6% in 2016.

The RBI announced a number of important regulatory measures, including greater overseas participation in Government bonds, and steps to boost the depth of the foreign currency market.

Concerns about the extent of slowing in China, the anticipated rise in the US Fed Funds rate, and sharp declines in commodity prices have generated unease about the impact on emerging markets. Among the major Asian Emerging economies, South Korea and Taiwan, appear stronger than the rest.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the Repo rate 7.25%, as expected and the Government and the RBI are broadly in agreement regarding the future composition of the Monetary policy committee. The outlook for the remainder of the monsoon – and it impact on food prices, as well as the impact of the Fed’s anticipated rate rise are two critical determinants of future interest rate movements.

The Indian economy expanded by 7.5% over the year to March 2015. Services, followed by Industry, were the best perfromers however agriculture contracted raising concerns about urban-rural divide. Industrial production activity is expected to gain momemtum in the second half of the year and NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.8% expansion in 2015, followed by 8% in 2016.

Japan’s unemployment rate has fallen, it’s weak currency benefited its Current account and led to a surge in the stock market and Japanese banks are stable, well-capitalised and moderately profitable.

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