Author

John Sharma

“John has a first class Honours in Economics from Melbourne University and is a CFA Charterholder. ”

John Sharma is the Sovereign Risk Economist for the National Australia Bank, and is also entrusted with the coverage of India. John has been in the NAB Economics team since August 1999, and in the Sovereign Risk role since March 2013.

Prior to joining the Sovereign Risk area, John was in the Industry Economics team (with responsibilities for Property, Construction, Hospitality and Transport), followed by a role as the domestic Macro Economist, with responsibility for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Australian Economy as well as in preparing the NAB Monthly, Quarterly and SME Business Surveys.

John has a first class Honours in Economics from Melbourne University and is a CFA Charterholder.

Recently Published Articles

India Monetary Policy: February 2017

India Monetary Policy: February 2017

14 February 2017

The RBI, somewhat surprisingly, maintained the policy repo rate at 6.25%. Uncertainty about the effects of demonetisation and sticky core inflation were factors.

India Monetary Policy: February 2017
India Monetary Policy – August 2016

India Monetary Policy – August 2016

16 August 2016

The RBI held the policy (Repo) rate at 6.5%, as expected. NAB Economics is forecasting a 25bp cut in rates to 6.25% in the December quarter, on expectation of softer food prices.

India Monetary Policy – August 2016
India Monetary Policy Outlook – April 2016

India Monetary Policy Outlook – April 2016

13 April 2016

The April 5th Monetary policy meeting was a landmark in terms of the policy measures announced. The 25bp cut in the policy rate was accompanied by a raft of measures to boost liquidity and ensure more effective monetary transmission by banks.

India Monetary Policy Outlook – April 2016
India GDP & Monetary Policy

India GDP & Monetary Policy

9 December 2015

India’s economy accelerated in the September quarter 2015, with Real GDP growing by 7.4% yoy, up from 7% in the June quarter. NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.5% expansion in 2015, followed by 7.6% in 2016.

India GDP & Monetary Policy
Emerging Asia – September 2015

Emerging Asia – September 2015

11 September 2015

Concerns about the extent of slowing in China, the anticipated rise in the US Fed Funds rate, and sharp declines in commodity prices have generated unease about the impact on emerging markets. Among the major Asian Emerging economies, South Korea and Taiwan, appear stronger than the rest.

Emerging Asia – September 2015
India Monetary Policy Review – August  2015

India Monetary Policy Review – August 2015

11 August 2015

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the Repo rate 7.25%, as expected and the Government and the RBI are broadly in agreement regarding the future composition of the Monetary policy committee. The outlook for the remainder of the monsoon - and it impact on food prices, as well as the impact of the Fed’s anticipated rate rise are two critical determinants of future interest rate movements.

India Monetary Policy Review – August  2015
India GDP & Monetary Policy – June 2015

India GDP & Monetary Policy – June 2015

9 June 2015

The Indian economy expanded by 7.5% over the year to March 2015. Services, followed by Industry, were the best perfromers however agriculture contracted raising concerns about urban-rural divide. Industrial production activity is expected to gain momemtum in the second half of the year and NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.8% expansion in 2015, followed by 8% in 2016.

India GDP & Monetary Policy – June 2015
Japanese Economic Update – May 2015

Japanese Economic Update – May 2015

26 May 2015

Japan's unemployment rate has fallen, it's weak currency benefited its Current account and led to a surge in the stock market and Japanese banks are stable, well-capitalised and moderately profitable.

Japanese Economic Update – May 2015
India Monetary Policy – April 2015

India Monetary Policy – April 2015

13 April 2015

The RBI held the benchmark Repo rate at 7.5% in its April Meeting which was largely anticipated, given the previously ‘front-loaded’ rate cuts in January and March. The RBI highlighted recent unseasonal rains had generated uncertainty and banks had not passed on the previous rate cuts.

India Monetary Policy – April 2015
India Budget and Economic Brief – March 2015

India Budget and Economic Brief – March 2015

10 March 2015

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley released his first full-year Budget on the 28th of February, 2015. The pace of fiscal consolidation was pushed back, with the 3% Deficit target now likely. Instead, there was a strong push for infrastructure spending.

India Budget and Economic Brief – March 2015
India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2014

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2014

5 December 2014

The Indian economy expanded by 5.3% over the year to the September quarter. It's the second successive quarter of above-5% growth, and reflects a gradual upturn in the Indian economy. Financial services and Community services were the best performing sectors.

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2014
India Monetary Policy – October 2014

India Monetary Policy – October 2014

10 October 2014

The RBI held the policy Repo rate at 8% in its latest meeting – as broadly anticipated. The focus on meeting the 6% headline CPI outcome in January 2016 was reiterated.

India Monetary Policy – October 2014
India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2014

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2014

4 September 2014

The Indian economy expanded by 5.7% in the June quarter, the fastest pace in over 2 years. By sector, Services (Financial & Community services) and Industry were better performing, while Agriculture eased due to weaker monsoon conditions.

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2014
India Monetary Policy – August 2014

India Monetary Policy – August 2014

12 August 2014

The RBI held the policy Repo rate at 8% in its latest meeting – as broadly anticipated. The Statutory Liquidity Rate was cut by 50bp to 22% to enable banks to free up capital for lending, and to boost their liquidity coverage.

India Monetary Policy – August 2014
India Budget 2014-15

India Budget 2014-15

25 July 2014

India’s new Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, delivered his maiden Budget on the 10th of July. It was a good document, albeit not a ‘game changer’, and needs to be followed up with further action and implementation. There were positives for consumers, infrastructure spending, real estate.

India Budget 2014-15
Canada Economic Update – July 2014

Canada Economic Update – July 2014

15 July 2014

The Canadian economy recorded a moderate 0.3% increase during the March quarter, 2014, impacted by weather related disruptions. Group Economics is forecasting a 2.3% expansion in 2014, followed by a somewhat quicker 2.5% in 2015

Canada Economic Update – July 2014
India GDP (March Quarter) – June 2014

India GDP (March Quarter) – June 2014

13 June 2014

India’s economy expanded by 4.6% during the year to March quarter 2014; it increased 4.7% over the 2013-14 financial year. By industry, agriculture and financial services were the strongest performing; manufacturing and mining remained in recession.

India GDP (March Quarter) – June 2014
India Election Update – May 2014

India Election Update – May 2014

26 May 2014

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won a landslide election victory in the recently concluded elections, with the BJP winning enough seats to govern in its own right. The result was welcomed strongly by financial markets, reflecting gains in both equities as well as the Indian Rupee.

India Election Update – May 2014
India Monetary Policy Review – April 2014

India Monetary Policy Review – April 2014

10 April 2014

At its first bi-monthly Monetary policy statement for 2014-15, the RBI maintained the policy Repo rate at 8%, as expected. India’s headline inflation indicators have improved with easing vegetable prices, although the Core CPI remained sticky at 8%, reflecting high prices for services.

India Monetary Policy Review – April 2014
India GDP (December Quarter) – March 2014

India GDP (December Quarter) – March 2014

11 March 2014

India’s economic growth decelerated to 4.7% in the December quarter 2013, in year ended terms, from 4.8% in the September quarter. The standout was the Services sector (particularly Financial services and Community services), which grew by 6.7%, followed by Agriculture at 3.6%.

India GDP (December Quarter) – March 2014
India Monetary Policy Review – January 2014

India Monetary Policy Review – January 2014

4 February 2014

At its Quarterly Monetary policy review on the 28th of January 2014, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the Repo rate by 25bp to 8%, and simultaneously raised both the MSF (Marginal Standing Facility Rate) and Reverse Repo Rate by 25bp to 9% and 7% respectively.

India Monetary Policy Review – January 2014
India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2013

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2013

10 December 2013

Indian growth accelerated to 4.8%, in year ended terms, in the September Quarter, up from 4.4% in the June quarter. An improvement in the agricultural sector (up to 4.6% from 2.7%), due to a favourable monsoon season, helped drive the improved outcome.

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – October 2013

India Monetary Policy Review – October 2013

11 November 2013

At its Quarterly Monetary policy review on the 29th of October, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the Repo rate by 25bp to 7.75%. It simultaneously cut the MSF (Marginal Standing Facility Rate) by 25bp to 8%; this follows a prior 50bp cut on the 7th October.

India Monetary Policy Review – October 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – September 2013

India Monetary Policy Review – September 2013

2 October 2013

At its Quarterly Monetary policy review on 20 July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the MSF rate by 75bps, whilst raising the Repo and Reverse Repo rates by 25 basis points. The Cash Reserve Ratio was held at 4%, but the minimum daily balance was reduced from 99% to 95%.

India Monetary Policy Review – September 2013
India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013

10 September 2013

The Indian economy (Production, at factor cost) grew by only 4.4% over the year to the June quarter, 2013. This is the slowest pace of growth since March 2009. By Production, services (primarily financial and agriculture) were the mainstay; in contrast, mining and manufacturing contracted

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013