Author

Michael Creed

“Michael is responsible for formulating the bank’s views on global markets for agricultural and energy commodities.”

Michael is responsible for formulating the bank’s views on global markets for agricultural and energy commodities. His role involves forecasting trends in key markets and providing strategic insights into the linkages between macroeconomic conditions, financial and commodity markets. Michael speaks regularly on the state of the economy and commodity markets, with his views widely quoted in the media.

Prior to joining NAB, Michael was an economist with the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance, providing macroeconomic and revenue forecasts and economic policy advice. Michael has extensive research experience in macroeconomics, commodities, international trade, public policy and economic development. He holds degrees in psychology, econometrics and a Master’s degree in economics from Monash University.

Recently Published Articles

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012

12 December 2012

The Australian economy appears to have stumbled into the December quarter. For agricultural commodities, markets have been fairly mixed over the past month. Grains prices have softened a little on expected demand rationing while sugar and cotton remain subdued.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012
Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012

Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012

21 November 2012

The post farm gate agribusiness conditions index posted a decent turnaround following a very weak June quarter. Driving the result was an increase across the three key components that make up the index, with the sharpest turnaround being trading conditions.

Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012

13 November 2012

China’s strong import program is one of several global factors colliding to underpin wheat prices through the end of the year and into 2013, according to the latest Rural Commodities Wrap, which this month focuses on wheat. NAB estimates the crop will come in at 20.6 million tonnes

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012
Oil Market Update – October 2012

Oil Market Update – October 2012

30 October 2012

Oil prices weaken in October but remain quite high. Attention now shifting towards the Asian economies, which have surprised markets on the downside in recent months. Near-term forecasts lifted on geo-political risk, 2013 forecasts left unchanged.

Oil Market Update – October 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012

24 August 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global growth weighed down by weakness in big developed economies, emerging markets also slowing Australian farm sector mixed but likely to benefit from US drought, which could add around $6 billion in export incomes to the […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012
Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012

3 August 2012

US natural gas lift on winding down inventories (after seasonal adjustment), and increased consumption due to shift away from coal to gas in electricity generation for summer European prices weaken as increased Russian supplies, soft demand and reduced arbitrage opportunities to Asia see more LNG enter European natural gas market Prices in Asia Pacific surge […]

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB’s Quarterly Agribusiness Survey covers economic and business conditions in Australia’s post farm gate agribusiness sector. Post farm gate business conditions weaken through June. Post farm gate agribusiness conditions decline further in June, due mostly to a large fall in customer confidence Medium term expectations continue to wind back, pulling capex expectations along with them […]

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2012
Oil Market Update

Oil Market Update

21 June 2012

Oil prices continue to soften on ongoing concerns surrounding the Euro-zone, Spanish bond yields rising above 7 per cent and softening US and Chinese economic activity Oil price forecasts revised down, reflecting ongoing market concerns surrounding the Euro-zone, weaker growth forecasts for the US and China and easing supply-side concerns Global crude oil market loosening […]

Oil Market Update
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012

1 June 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global agricultural commodity prices come under pressure as European concerns sees heightened financial market volatility Australian poultry industry on firm footing, buoyed by rising productivity and solid growth in per capita consumption Decline in domestic pig meat […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012

20 April 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global agricultural commodity prices under pressure from resumption of ‘risk-off’ attitude pervading financial markets Australian wheat crop of 26.1 million tonnes predicted on good subsoil moisture, but acreage lost to canola Wheat prices […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey

30 March 2012

NAB’s Quarterly Agribusiness Survey covers economic and business conditions in Australia’s post farm gate agribusiness sector. Post farm gate business conditions pull back in early 2012 Post farm gate business conditions fall on lower product prices, availability of materials and labour, falling export sales Medium term expectations pull back as recent results see sector become […]

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey
Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012

15 February 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Agricultural commodity prices easing further on increased production, AUD impact on livestock markets Sluggish global consumption growth, increased competition from South America and South Africa impacting Australian wine exports Domestically, Australian wines under increasing pressure from rising import […]

Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012

15 January 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month.  Agricultural commodities hit record levels in 2011, to ease in 2012 on massive production response. But considerable risk remains based on weather and Euro-zone debt crisis. Prices for agricultural commodities managed to pick up significantly in 2011, […]

Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011

15 December 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Agricultural commodities weakening on Euro sovereign debt crisis, rising production prospects Wool prices hit by weakening demand prospects, but still relatively high Australian wool production to rise 3.1 per cent in 2011-12 but exports to remain […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2011

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2011

30 September 2011

NAB’s Quarterly Agribusiness Survey covers economic and business conditions in Australia’s post farm gate agribusiness sector. Post farm gate conditions improve after plunging through 2011 Post farm gate business conditions improve but still remain weak High commodity prices and weak customer demand continue to squeeze post farm gate agribusiness sales margins Capacity utilisation collapses in […]

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011

15 September 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month.  • Commodity prices weaken on risk-off attitude hitting global markets, but fundamentals still point to solid prices for agricultural commodities • Sugar prices set to weaken as solid crops in India, EU and Russia come online […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011

15 August 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Australian wheat crop downgraded to 21.8 million on dryness in northern NSW, Queensland Beef prices to fall in near term on weakness in Japan, US and high AUD but recover in medium term on tight global […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011