Peter Jolly

Peter Jolly

Global Head of Research

“Peter has worked as an economist and researcher for more than two decades, starting out with the Central Bank of New Zealand. ”

Peter is Global Head of Research in the Global Markets area of National Australia Bank.

His team has specialist researchers across the world covering macroeconomics, credit markets, foreign exchange, and fixed income markets.

Peter has worked as an economist and researcher for more than two decades, starting out with the Central Bank of New Zealand.

Peter is also an Honorary Fellow at Macquarie University and has a Masters Degree in Economics from the University of London.


The key views of NAB and BNZ’s economists and strategists

Last week’s local data provided further indication that the recovery in the non-mining sectors has continued through the June quarter.

RBA more open to the need to cut again but for now the reasons aren’t sufficient.

Another busy week in Australia with the NAB Business Survey, Consumer Confidence and October Labour Force data all released.

This week in Australia is of course all about the RBA Board meeting on Tuesday and the November Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday. Our special focus this week is on a number of charts showing that the RBA has already eased pro-cyclically and the non-mining economy is improving.

The RBA Board is sure to leave the cash rate at 2% on Tuesday and their Statement is likely to again signal a very modest easing bias. Absolutely no intent, but nonetheless an acknowledgement that if needed they still have 200bps of interest rates to play with.

Ahead of next week’s Commonwealth Budget, there has been speculation on whether Australia’s AAA sovereign credit rating is at risk. There are several aspects to consider here. First the likelihood and second the implications.

Australian markets weekly starting 24th November 2014

After several low quarterly increases, we expect Wednesday’s Q3 wage data to show a small up-tick in the annual growth rate from 2.6% yoy to 2.7% in Q3.

Fairly quiet week for scheduled data and events in Australia but more action overseas, particularly in the US where the Federal Reserve will end their bond buying or quantitative easing programme

A striking feature in recent times has been the divergence between the confidence of businesses and consumers.

Business confidence near multi-year highs yet consumer confidence near multi-year lows. Firms profitability being driven by productivity and constrained labour costs. Household income growth near zero over past two years – near recessionary levels.

The Government Statistician released the Q2 National Accounts last week which showed the economy doing quite well. Or at least a bit better than we feared given mining investment is slumping and commodity prices are falling.

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