Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Author
Phin Ziebell
“Responsible for analysing and reporting on the trends and developments in the agribusiness industry, working in conjunction with bankers in NAB’s Agribusiness division.”
Phin is NAB’s Agribusiness Economist. He is responsible for analysing and reporting on the trends and developments in the agribusiness industry and works closely in conjunction with bankers in NAB’s Agribusiness division.
Phin graduated with bachelor degrees in Commerce and Arts from the University of Melbourne and joined NAB in mid-2014. He was previously an economist at the Victorian Department of Primary Industries and Victorian Treasury.
Recently Published Articles
FX and your business weekly podcast: 2 July 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
FX and your business podcast: 24 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 18 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 9 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 2 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements
FX and your business weekly podcast: 26 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 19 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 15 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements. This week's podcast includes a focus on inflation and FX implications .
FX and your business weekly podcast: 5 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 26 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 29 March 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 22 March 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 15 March 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 1 March 2021
A new weekly podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2020
Market and seasonal conditions strengthen Australian agriculture.
Insight
In Focus: Wool – August 2020
Demand fundamentals limiting outlook for wool.
Insight
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2020
Appreciating AUD takes gloss off positive seasonal outlook.
Insight
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2020
Food service spending under pressure amid new restrictions.
Insight
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2020
Record cattle prices face risks amid global pandemic.
Insight
Winter crop update: June 2020
2020-21 winter crop prospects strong.
Insight
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2020
Improved seasonal conditions drive a 17-point jump in NAB’s National Agribusiness Conditions Index.
Podcast
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2020
Rural commodities continue to climb.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2020
Rural commodities resilient amid COVID-19 crisis.
In Focus: Beef – March 2020
Risks remain amid rapid rise in cattle prices.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020
Good January rainfall across key agricultural production areas drove the NAB Rural Commodities Index 4.6% higher this month, despite the impact of bushfires and coronavirus.
In focus: Dairy – January 2020
Dairy dynamics: prices, drought and costs impacting dairy landscape.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: November 2019
High cost of water dries up basin profit margins.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2019
Wheat crop cops sharp downgrade amid tough spring.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2019
Seasonal conditions and declining winter crop forecasts reflect drop in NAB Rural Commodities Index.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2019
Resilient cattle and lamb prices sustain flat NAB Rural Commodities Index.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2019
The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 0.5% in June.
In focus: Horticulture June 2019
Horticulture exports grow to rival Australian lamb and dairy.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2019
Cattle markets and southern rain stabilises NAB's Rural Commodities Index
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019
Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 1.1% in April, largely reflecting higher cattle, lamb, dairy and cotton prices, offsetting further declines in grain.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2019
Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 2.7% in March, largely reflecting lower cattle, grain and fruit prices.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019
Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 0.2% in February – “above water” only due to strong gains in fruit and vegetables, dairy and to a lesser extent wool and sugar.
In Focus: Dairy January 2019
Global Dairy Trade auction results have seen some upside since December after a fairly weak run over much of 2018.
In Focus: Winter Crops – November 2018
Harvest is now underway for 2018-19 winter crop, a season which will likely go down as one of the most mixed in years.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: November 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 1.8% in October, following a 6.5% jump in September.
Transport infrastructure update Victoria: September 2018
The Victorian economy has been one of Australia’s fastest growing this year. Given the scope of construction projects now ramping up it's likely transport infrastructure spending will continue to contribute strongly to Victorian growth over the next year.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 6.5% in September, recording the biggest monthly gain since December 2010.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index was up 0.7% in August, with grain, lamb and wool prices on the rise, but cattle and dairy lower. Continued drought conditions in the east is likely to see elevated grain prices but lower cattle prices.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.3% month on month in July, following a 1.4% gain in June. On a year on year basis, the index was down 0.3% in July.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.4% month on month in June, following a 3.1% gain in May. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in June. The monthly gain reflects strong lamb, wool and cotton prices.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 3.1% month on month in May after falling 2.8% in April. On a year on year basis, the index was down 4.4% in May. The monthly gain reflects strong grain, horticultural, dairy, wool and cotton prices.
In Focus: Beef – May 2018
2018 has been exceptionally dry across much of Australia, with knock-on downside to restocker interest and young cattle prices.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap April 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 3.0% month on month in March, its second consecutive rise.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.2% month on month in February, following a drop of 1.8% in January. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in February. The gain was driven by higher grain, fruit and dairy prices, offsetting falls in beef, lamb and sugar.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2018
2018 has seen a fairly mixed start to the year, with significant differences between regions and industries.
In Focus: Dairy – Quarter 1 2018
Dairy prices have trended downwards overall since mid last year, and although 2018 has brought some relief in USD terms, the higher AUD has eroded these gains.
Natural Gas and LNG Market Outlook: November 2017
The connection of Eastern Australia to global LNG markets has seen domestic prices face a wild year.
In Focus: Beef – November 2017
The Australian beef cattle industry has enjoyed a great run over the past couple of years, with the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) hitting a record over 720c/kg in September last year.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: November 2017
The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 2.1% in October, its first monthly gain since May.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: November 2017
The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 2.1% in October, its first monthly gain since May.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2017
The index tracks 28 commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2017
Seasonal conditions remain a major consideration.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017
The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 1.2% in July as generally higher grain prices were offset by weakness across livestock, dairy, cotton and mixed performance in horticulture.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017
The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.
In Focus: Wheat production outlook – July 2017
The autumn break this year was rather mixed, with some areas receiving good rain and others missing out.
Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017
This is the second month of NAB’s new regional price indicators, in effect a separate NAB Rural Commodities Index for every region in Australia.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2017
This month NAB Economics introduces new regional price indicators, in effect a separate NAB Rural Commodities Index for every region in Australia.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017
The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.
Oil Market Outlook: March 2017
Prices have seen a gradual recovery from the mid-2014 to early 2016 price slide.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017
Summer has brought extremely volatile conditions to Australia’s cropping districts. While much of eastern Australia has baked in an extraordinary heatwave, Western Australia has suffered substantial flooding.
In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017
For the 2016-17 season, we developed a new wheat production forecast model, based on regional rainfall and state yields going back to federation, with an allowance for technological change.
Gas and LNG Market Outlook: January 2017
While prices are likely to stay subdued for some time, increased volume will see the value of exports increase significantly.
In Focus: Dairy January 2017
2016 was a very tough year for many Australian dairy producers, with farmers beginning the year amid extremely dry conditions in key dairy regions and steep cuts to farmgate prices
In focus: Beef and cattle outlook – December 2016
The Australian cattle industry has enjoyed a stellar two year run of rising prices, and more recently, very good rains across many cattle producing regions.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: November 2016
Our outlook for agricultural production is highly reliant on the climate outlook
In Focus: Dairy October 2016
Global dairy markets have faced very difficult conditions since plummeting in the first half of 2014
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016
The progress of the season, which has been generally much wetter than average in eastern Australia but dryer in the west, continues to be the major consideration for Australian agriculture.
NAB Rural Commodites Wrap: September 2016
Spring has brought not only considerable rain to parts of the country but also a further uptick in the NAB Rural Commodities Index.
In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2016
The Australian lamb industry has enjoyed broadly favourable conditions of late, and we remain upbeat in our assessment of the industry.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July -August 2016
NAB’s Rural Commodities Index includes 28 commodities. The index is weighted annually according to the gross value of production of each industry in Australia.
In Focus: Pulses – July 2016
In this report we present a strong outlook for Australian pulses production, reflecting the exceedingly favourable season so far and greater plantings for some varieties.
Rural Commodities Wrap: June 16
Our expectations for prices in the coming year are underpinned by our forecasts for a generally lower AUD, tracking in the high 60s range in late 2016 and 2017.
Australian wheat production outlook: June 2016
This report presents our initial estimates for Australian wheat production for the 2016-17 season.
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2016
Australian agriculture has seen a number of significant developments since the release of the last NAB Rural Commodities Wrap
Budget 2016-17: Agriculture
The 2016-17 Budget includes a number of measures for agriculture, relating to water and drought, infrastructure, innovation and trade as well as revenue and savings measures.
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016
Our forecasts point to Australian agricultural prices trending generally somewhat higher in AUD terms this year, despite challenging international conditions. However, the stronger AUD presents a risk to local prices.
In focus: Beef Market Update – March 2016
The Australian cattle industry is in the midst of a significant transition following a period of almost unprecedented growth in cattle prices.
Australian Agricultural Export Update – March 2016
Overall, 2015-16 has been a broadly promising export year for most major Australian agricultural exports.
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2016
Our forecasts point to Australian agricultural prices trending higher in AUD terms in 2016, despite challenging international conditions.
In Focus: Dairy January 2016
Australian producers have been shielded from much tumult by a lower Australian dollar and a large and relatively stable domestic market.
Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts
This report presents our forecasts for Australian agricultural exports for 2015-16 as well as estimates for 2016-17. Overall, 2015-16 looks to be a promising export year for most major Australian agricultural exports in value terms, supported by a lower Australian dollar.
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015
Agricultural markets continue to react to the unfolding El Niño event, albeit in varying directions. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was stable in October.
Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP
Overall, we assess this year’s El Niño as a moderate risk to farm production. We forecast farm GDP (2% of the total economy) to be flat to moderately lower (0 to -5%) in 2015-16, which will only marginally subtract from headline GDP.
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015
Agricultural prices continued to diverge in September. Most major grains fell as did fruit, vegetables and trade lamb (reflecting seasonal trends) however dairy prices strongly rebounded and sugar, beef and rice were also higher in AUD terms.
Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture
The Trans Pacific Partnership delivers tariff reductions and improved market access for Australian agricultural products. With TPP countries representing a third of Australian agricultural exports, these benefits are potentially significant.
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015
Key Points Agricultural prices diverged in August and into September – protein and fibres generally rose while crops trended lower. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was flat in AUD terms in August (down 0.1%) and moderately lower in USD terms (down 2.0%). The AUD continued its downward trajectory in August, before sinking below 70 […]
In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015
Lamb prices follow a generally seasonal pattern, rising early in the year before declining in spring as spring lamb supply becomes available. Nonetheless, monthly average trade lamb prices have remained reasonably steady through July and into August this year and prices are now well ahead of the same time last year.
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015
The NAB Rural Commodities Index continues to rise in AUD terms (up 4.1% in July), supported by a lower dollar and higher beef, fruit, domestic wheat and sugar prices.
In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015
NAB Agribusiness has revised its national wheat crop forecast up to 21.6 million tonnes for this season, with 23 million tonnes possible contingent on good spring rain in key wheat regions.
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015
The NAB Rural Commodities Index was steady in June. The neutral result largely reflects higher grain and protein prices offset by sharply lower fruit, vegetable and to a lesser degree sugar prices.
In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015
Overall, we expect prices to generally rise in AUD terms for most of these commodities, with the exception of dairy and sugar, reflecting strong demand for beef in particular as well as the impact of a falling AUD.
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015
The NAB Rural Commodities Index rebounded in May – up 4.2% in AUD terms and 3.4% in USD terms. The improvement comes off the back of higher beef, lamb, wool, fruit, vegetables and pulses prices, offsetting further declines in dairy.
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015
April saw a renewed rise in beef and lamb prices, combined with stability across major grains, balanced against lower dairy, fruit and vegetable prices.
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015
Post-farmgate conditions were lower than expected despite the March and June quarters generally being seasonally the weakest quarters in the NAB Post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey.The weakness in the results likely reflects mixed climatic conditions.
In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015
Cattle prices began to ease in February and continued to fall until late March, before trending upward in early April in line with higher 90CL export prices to the US. Overall, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator fell 4.6% (AUD) month on month to 424.7 AUc/kg.
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015
The NAB Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, fell 1.7% (AUD) and 3.3% (USD) in March, led by lower beef, lamb, fruit, vegetable and sugar prices. Partial data for April to date points to a recovery in beef and lamb prices.
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014
The December quarter 2014 saw a rebound in post-farmgate agribusiness conditions, confidence and expected conditions at both 3 and 12 months. However forward orders declined and profitability remained negative. Overall, the sector experienced a more optimistic December quarter.
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015
The Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, gained 2.1% (AUD) and 0.5% (USD) in February on the back of higher fruit, dairy, fibre and pulses prices, which offset mixed performance across grains and protein.
In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015
Forecast production across summer crops remains divergent. Cotton is likely to see a significant fall in price year on year, as changes to Chinese subsidy arrangements and cheaper synthetic fibres eat into demand, outweighing the impact of reduced Australian supply.
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015
2015 brings an expanded Rural Commodities Index, which now includes 28 commodities, up from eight. The Index increased 5.6% in January in AUD terms, as sharply higher beef prices - and to a lesser extent higher lamb, dairy and vegetable prices - offset mixed performance across grains.
In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook
Combined with strong industry fundamentals, Queensland saw significant rainfall during December 2014 and January 2015. In response, cattle prices have risen substantially as producers look to restock. However, despite this optimism, a number of challenges remain.
Emerging Commodities: Quinoa
Since 2008, global quinoa consumption has rapidly increased. In Australia, planting has been concentrated largely in Western Australia. While there are potential benefits from diversification for wheat producers, concerns remain around reliability of yield, weed control and marketing.
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014
General Manager of NAB Agribusiness, Khan Horne says the falling Australian dollar is a real boost for agriculture, and combined with the recent announcement of the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement, conditions for 2015 are looking positive for agricultural exporters.
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014
The latest Post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey shows that while the sector experienced a difficult September quarter, expected conditions for the coming 12 months remain in positive territory at +5.
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014
The overall price outlook for rural commodities stabilised somewhat in September and early October as a falling AUD blunted the impact of lower global prices.
Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices
Residential electricity prices consist of wholesale, network, environmental policies (such as the Renewable Energy Target), and retail costs and margins. In Q3, wholesale costs were affected by the removal of the carbon tax as well as changes to regulated prices in some States.
Oil Market Update – September 2014
Since our last Quarterly Oil Market Update in June 2014, global crude oil prices have fallen sharply amid ample supply and weak demand combined with an increasing confidence that turmoil in Iraq is unlikely to disrupt supplies.
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014
The overall outlook for rural commodities deteriorated in August and September on account of a weak finish to winter rains in many areas combined with forecasts of abundant global grain supplies and lower prices for major agricultural commodities.
Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014
Having fallen for much of the year, wholesale gas prices in the United States and Europe have begun to edge up slightly since July. With the northern summer now coming to a close, mild weather should keep prices in check until the onset of colder winter conditions sees gas use increase.
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014
Australian beef prices are forecast to increase 3.5 per cent in 2014-15 on the back of a 4 per cent fall in production as producers rebuild herds, according to the latest NAB Agribusiness Rural Commodities Wrap.
Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture
The direct impact to Australian agricultural producers of the Russian Government’s embargo on most food imports is likely to be relatively small. However the secondary impacts are likely to be of greater concern for Australian producers.
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014
The 2014-15 Australian wheat season is off to a good start in most growing areas following autumn rain, and domestic prices are at a premium to international levels due to concerns about the impact of a dry spring.
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014
The latest National Australia Bank (NAB) post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey reports that the sector remains overwhelmingly optimistic about business conditions over the next 12 months, despite the index falling in the June quarter.