Tapas Strickland

Tapas Strickland

“Tapas is an Economist within Global Markets Research at the National Australia Bank (NAB). ”

Tapas joined NAB after having spent 6 years at the Reserve Bank of Australia. He writes for the Bank on the economy and on financial markets. At the Reserve Bank of Australia he held positions in domestic analysis and in international financial markets. He also worked as an economic adviser to the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, advising the Gillard, Rudd and Abbott governments


Employment growth is realish.

Norway’s central bank removed its explicit easing bias at its meeting overnight, stating “the balance of risks suggest that the key policy rate will remain at today’s level in the period ahead”.

A split Bank of England (BoE) decision to keep rates unchanged and another fall in oil prices were the two big events overnight in an otherwise quiet night.

Sterling has been hammered (-1.7% to 1.2735) as the BBC exit poll points to a Hung Parliament (Tories are set to be 12 seats short of a majority, being on track to get 314 seats; Labour 266; SNP 34; 326 required for majority).

It was another quiet session overnight with an ever so slight risk-off tone (Yen, Gold, Vix higher and Treasury yields lower) ahead of Thursday’s key risk events – ECB, UK Election and testimony by former FBI chief Comey.

Underemployment dragging on wages growth.

There was little in the way of significant market moves overnight.

The biggest news overnight was the FOMC Minutes, which were interpreted cautiously by the market as confirming the likelihood of a June rate hike, but casting some uncertainty over the trajectory for rates thereafter. The US dollar fell on the news, while bond yields declined.

How much spare capacity is in the labour market?

The two most significant development overnight were a 1.0% surge in the Euro (Euro now fetches 1.1089 – the highest since November 9 2016), and continued weakness in the US dollar with the DXY down 0.7% overnight and at its lowest point since just after the US the election.

Labour market outlook to improve.

The two big events overnight were a 4.8% slide in the oil price and a surge in European risk assets.

Markets have rallied hard on the back of the French Presidential elections on Sunday.

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