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Tapas Strickland

Tapas Strickland

“Tapas is an Economist within Global Markets Research at the National Australia Bank (NAB). ”

Tapas joined NAB after having spent 6 years at the Reserve Bank of Australia. He writes for the Bank on the economy and on financial markets. At the Reserve Bank of Australia he held positions in domestic analysis and in international financial markets. He also worked as an economic adviser to the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, advising the Gillard, Rudd and Abbott governments

RECENTLY PUBLISHED ARTICLES

The USD rally ground to a halt overnight amid continued US political machinations and uncertainty over the trajectory for inflation in the latest FOMC Minutes.

The Aussie was slightly weaker at -0.5% with weaker than expected Chinese data weighing alongside a stronger US dollar.

Geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea dominated the overnight session. However, market moves were contained following a winding back in rhetoric by US Administration officials.

In terms of market moves, most action happened in bonds. The bond sell-off continued overnight, underpinned by a weak French 30-year bond auction.

Lift was Shannon Noll’s first post Australian Idol hit. The lyrics “seems like forever that you’ve been falling, it’s time to move on” are an apt description of the mood of central banks, which have been removing expectations of further policy easing and getting the market into thinking of central banks tightening policy. This theme continued overnight with comments from the Bank of Canada’s Poloz and Bank of England’s Carney.

Employment growth is realish.

Norway’s central bank removed its explicit easing bias at its meeting overnight, stating “the balance of risks suggest that the key policy rate will remain at today’s level in the period ahead”.

A split Bank of England (BoE) decision to keep rates unchanged and another fall in oil prices were the two big events overnight in an otherwise quiet night.

Sterling has been hammered (-1.7% to 1.2735) as the BBC exit poll points to a Hung Parliament (Tories are set to be 12 seats short of a majority, being on track to get 314 seats; Labour 266; SNP 34; 326 required for majority).

It was another quiet session overnight with an ever so slight risk-off tone (Yen, Gold, Vix higher and Treasury yields lower) ahead of Thursday’s key risk events – ECB, UK Election and testimony by former FBI chief Comey.

Underemployment dragging on wages growth.

There was little in the way of significant market moves overnight.

The biggest news overnight was the FOMC Minutes, which were interpreted cautiously by the market as confirming the likelihood of a June rate hike, but casting some uncertainty over the trajectory for rates thereafter. The US dollar fell on the news, while bond yields declined.

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