Base Metals Market Update – October 2012

Metals prices received a significant boost over September, following a suite of policy stimulus announcements by some of the major central banks. In aggregate, base metal prices rose by 10 per cent over September but were 7 per cent lower than levels one year earlier.

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  • Metals prices received a significant boost over September, following a suite of policy stimulus announcements by some of the major central banks (US, Europe and Japan). In aggregate, base metal prices rose by 10 per cent over September but were 7 per cent lower than levels one year earlier.
  • It appears that demand fundamentals underlying metal prices have remained broadly unchanged, with some of the recent policy induced price exuberance being unwound more recently.
  • The Chinese national accounts show that the economy expanded by 7.4 per cent over the year to the September quarter, down from 7.6 per cent in the June quarter, and approaching the lows recorded during the GFC. The pace of growth has clearly slowed and uncertainties stemming from global demand and the fallout from previous policy tightening continue to cloud the outlook for commodities demand.
  • The NAB Base Metals Index (BMI) is expected to rise by around 3 ¼per cent in the December quarter. Prices are expected experience little growth in early 2013.

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