China Economic Update – 22 October 2014

China’s latest economic data was a mixed bag – with many measures comparatively negative (against the trends of recent years) but stronger than somewhat pessimistic market expectations. While year-on-year GDP growth was at a five year low, the growth rate remaining above 7% will likely…

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China’s growth rate slowed in Q3; unlikely enough to trigger further stimulus

China’s latest economic data was a mixed bag – with many measures comparatively negative (against the trends of recent years) but stronger than somewhat pessimistic market expectations. While year-on-year GDP growth was at a five year low, the growth rate remaining above 7% will likely be enough to avoid further broad based stimulus – measures opposed by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC).

As we have previously outlined, this result needs to be viewed in context. Last year’s mini-stimulus program distorted activity in Q3 2013 (pushing growth higher), and as a result, sustaining the growth momentum from early 2014 was always unlikely this quarter.

Our forecasts remain unchanged, with economic growth at 7.3% in 2014, and slowing further to 7.0% in 2015.

For further analysis download the full report.