China Economic Update – August 2013

Partial economic indicators, although still subdued, provided some signs that the economy may be stabilising. Trade data were somewhat above expectations, including much stronger import growth pointing to improved domestic demand.

By

  • Partial economic indicators, although still subdued, provided some signs that the economy may be stabilising. Trade data were somewhat above expectations, including much stronger import growth pointing to improved domestic demand. This was consistent with slight improvements in other partial indicators, although retail sales growth eased contrary to rebalancing efforts.
  • We have maintained our expectation for China’s growth to stabilise in the second half of 2013 at relatively subdued levels as authorities press on with structural rebalancing efforts – partially offset by an improvement in export demand from major developed economies and policy fine tuning.
  • CPI inflation remains well within acceptable levels, but policy makers are more likely to rely on money market operations, structural reforms, and policy ‘fine tuning’ to improve credit allocation and encourage growth, rather than monetary easing.
  • This month we included a closer look at China’s financial liberalisation.

For further analysis download the full report.