Emerging Asian Economies Update – August 2013

Exports from Australia to the emerging economies of Asia (ASEAN, S Korea, Taiwan, HK) remain below their 2011 peak, largely because of lower commodity prices. Dairy is 40% of New Zealand exports to these economies and higher dairy prices have driven a rebound in its earnings from the region

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• Exports from Australia to the emerging economies of Asia (ASEAN, S Korea, Taiwan, HK) remain below their 2011 peak, largely because of lower commodity prices. Dairy is 40% of New Zealand exports to these economies and higher dairy prices have driven a rebound in its earnings from the region. These economies represent crucial markets for Australasian exporters accounting for around 20% of goods exports from Australia and New Zealand.
• This disappointing export record also reflects the slower growth that has been seen across the region- which is heavily reliant on world trade. Export growth from Emerging Asia to the rest of the world has slowed sharply through the last few years, in line with the profile of world trade.
• This export slowing has fed into much weaker growth in industrial output and, more generally, to a softening in the pace of GDP growth. Emerging Asian economic growth peaked at almost 10% yoy in early 2010 but by early 2013 it was down to around 3½%.
• Governments around the region are counting on an upturn in world trade to help kick-start faster growth in the traditional way, while continued growth in consumer spending and infrastructure projects provide a boost to domestic demand.
• We are expecting a fairly modest upturn in growth, partly reflecting the absence of a prior recession to bounce back from. Growth across Emerging Asia of around 3¾% and 4¼% is predicted for 2013 and 2014.

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Emerging Asian Economies Update – August 2013 (PDF 536 KB)