NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?

The recent capex and exploration expectations data suggest that mining investment may be approaching a turning point. A decline is inevitable: the question is when and how fast. On the basis of past engineering construction commencements, there are reasons to believe …

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  • The recent capex and exploration expectations data suggest that mining investment may be approaching a turning point. A decline is inevitable: the question is when and how fast.
  • On the basis of past engineering construction commencements, there are reasons to believe that there is a risk of a decline in 2014 big enough to take 2% points off GDP growth in that year unless another “mega” project starts soon. Lower levels of bulk commodity prices are also likely to be negative for the underlying trend in mining project commencements.
  • If mining investment retreats spectacularly in 2014, non-mining investment will need to fill the gap quickly if employment growth is to be maintained.

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