Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015

Agricultural markets continue to react to the unfolding El Niño event, albeit in varying directions. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was stable in October.

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Key points

  • Agricultural markets continue to react to the unfolding El Niño event, albeit in varying directions. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was stable in October – off 0.7% in AUD terms but up 0.9% in USD terms.
  • In Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction. Recent outcomes from the business survey support this contention with business conditions holding up at a high level in October. Meanwhile, recent and forecast global economic growth remains lacklustre although some of the risks hanging over global markets have abated.
  • The outlook for agricultural production depends in part on how El Niño develops coming into summer. The impact of any given El Niño event is highly variable but is generally associated with lower rainfall in Eastern Australia. So far, Victoria has been worst hit by El Niño this year.

For further analysis, download our full report.