Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015
- Agricultural prices continued to diverge in September. Most major grains fell (wheat was down almost 10% in AUD terms), as did fruit, vegetables and trade lamb (reflecting seasonal trends). However, dairy prices strongly rebounded on supply concerns. Sugar, beef and rice were also higher in AUD terms. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was off 1.5% (AUD) and 4.1% (USD).
- After dropping below 70 US cents in mid-September, the AUD since rallied and is now above 72 US cents. Overall, we see the AUD as a 65 to 75 US cent currency (on the wide) through 2016 and forecast the AUD to bottom out at 68 US cents in Q1 2016.
- Signs that the effects of El Niño are ramping up are reflected in a very hot and dry three month rainfall outlook for south-eastern Australia. However, the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts that Western Australia may enjoy decent rain and conditions are expected to be neutral in much of Queensland. This outlook is likely to put further pressure on graziers in Victoria and New South Wales coming into summer.
For further analysis, download our full report.
About the Author: Phin Ziebell
Phin joined NAB in mid 2014 on secondment from the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance (DTF). In his time in DTF, he has been heavily involved in gambling tax policy as well as Commonwealth-State relations. He has also participated actively in the preparation of the annual state publications such as the Budget papers and the Annual Financial Report. Phin has also worked in the Energy Division of the Victorian Department of Primary Industries, providing analysis on electricity and gas wholesale, network and retail prices. At NAB, Phin is responsible for analysing and reporting on the trends and developments in the agribusiness industry, working in conjunction with bankers in NAB’s Agribusiness division. Phin graduated with bachelor degrees in Commerce and Arts from the University of Melbourne.
14 May 2015
25 March 2015
22 November 2012
20 September 2013
15 February 2012