Key Points

• Agricultural prices diverged in August and into September – protein and fibres generally rose while crops trended lower. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was flat in AUD terms in August (down 0.1%) and moderately lower in USD terms (down 2.0%).

• The AUD continued its downward trajectory in August, before sinking below 70 US cents in early September. The AUD sustained something of a recovery in mid-September but has subsequently faced renewed downward pressure. Our AUD/USD forecast reflects the likelihood of continued terms of trade weakness, ongoing risks to the growth outlook globally and in China in particular as well as USD appreciation as the Fed commences tightening late this year (or early next).

• Rainfall continued to be patchy in August and into September although good rains in Western Australia and New South Wales have led us to boost our outlook for the 2015-16 wheat harvest. With the impact of El Niño now likely to appear later in spring and into summer, the major climatic risk is for graziers and summer crops.

For further analysis, download our full report.

• Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015 (PDF, 2MB)