Commodities

Featured stories

Insights, Trends & Case Studies

The AUD in November 2023

The AUD in November 2023

1 December 2023

The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.

The AUD in November 2023
Markets Today – The Cool Out

Markets Today – The Cool Out

1 December 2023

After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.

Markets Today – The Cool Out
Markets Today – Sweet Spot

Markets Today – Sweet Spot

30 November 2023

Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.

Markets Today – Sweet Spot
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

28 November 2023

US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

23 November 2023

Todays podcast   US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Markets Today – Proceed Carefully

Markets Today – Proceed Carefully

22 November 2023

The FOMC Minutes out 6am Sydney time didn’t do much to excite markets. The euro is a little weaker over the past 24 hours, while the equity market rally has lost some steam.

Markets Today – Proceed Carefully
Markets Today – Feel Good Time

Markets Today – Feel Good Time

21 November 2023

US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.

Markets Today – Feel Good Time
Markets Today – Sour Candy

Markets Today – Sour Candy

17 November 2023

A choppy session with softer-than expected second-tier US data seeing yields fall, while the USD gained smalls and commodity currencies underperformed

Markets Today – Sour Candy
Markets Today – Slow

Markets Today – Slow

15 November 2023

US CPI came in a tenth below consensus on both the headline and core rates, leaving yields sharply lower, the USD weaker, and equities higher.

Markets Today – Slow
Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

13 November 2023

US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
Markets Today – Torn

Markets Today – Torn

10 November 2023

Two events late in the session dominated price action. The first was a poorly received US 30yr Treasury auction. The second was not dovish comments by Powell who sounded still hawkish.

Markets Today – Torn
Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

6 November 2023

Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Markets Today – Crazy in love

Markets Today – Crazy in love

3 November 2023

Risk-on continues in the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as investors price the aggressive monetary hiking cycle as being closer to the end.

Markets Today – Crazy in love
Markets Today – On Hold

Markets Today – On Hold

2 November 2023

The FOMC was on hold as expected. Yields are lower, though most of the moves came ahead of the Fed with soft US data.

Markets Today – On Hold
Markets Today – Muddy Waters

Markets Today – Muddy Waters

30 October 2023

European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.

Markets Today – Muddy Waters
Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up

Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up

27 October 2023

Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight with equities extending recent losses with disappointing earnings outlooks from major tech companies, despite mostly beating on current quarter earnings.

Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

26 October 2023

US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
Markets Today – Carefully

Markets Today – Carefully

20 October 2023

Fed Chair Powell’s remarks have seen a choppy market response and a steeper curve, but against a backdrop of weak risk sentiment

Markets Today – Carefully
Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

17 October 2023

Todays podcast Positive risk appetite to kick off the new week Equities higher, S&P500 +1.1% Yields higher, US 10yr +9bp to 4.70% Dollar loses 0.4% on the DXY with AUD an outperformer, +0.8% to 0.6344 Coming up: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, US Retail, CA CPI, UK Wages, FED & ECB speakers Events round-up NZ: Performance […]

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

Podcast

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

10 October 2023

Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – Work It

Markets Today – Work It

9 October 2023

Stronger than expected payrolls data initially saw yields sharply higher, equities lower, and the USD stronger, though with the unemployment rate steady and earnings growth moderating, those moves were retraced.

Markets Today – Work It
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

6 October 2023

Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets Today – Breathe

Markets Today – Breathe

5 October 2023

The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause. Why? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are a number of factors, but it’s tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls that will really set the direction for early next week.

Markets Today – Breathe
Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

4 October 2023

A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.

Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
Markets Today – Closing Time

Markets Today – Closing Time

29 September 2023

Todays Podcast UK gilts lead global bond yields higher, Italy and France also up a lot, budget news hurts Treasuries recoil ~10bps from new (4.685%) high ahead of expected government shutdown tomorrow This plus reduced UAW pay demands, news of possible Xi-Biden meet, boosts US equity sentiment, AUD/USD recovers more than 1% of recent losses […]

Markets Today – Closing Time
Markets Today – You Raise Me Up

Markets Today – You Raise Me Up

26 September 2023

The bond selloff continued overnight in what was a very quiet night for newsflow. The US 10yr hit a 16yr high of 4.55%, now 4.53%, and up some 11.2bps over the past 24 hours.

Markets Today – You Raise Me Up
Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)

Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)

25 September 2023

The path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting there will be more hike(s) to come.

Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)
Markets Today – Rocket Man

Markets Today – Rocket Man

22 September 2023

The BoE is the latest to put rates on hold. But are they done? JBWere’s Sally Auld says its not safe to assume it’s over for any central bank.

Markets Today – Rocket Man
Markets Today – As high as it gets?

Markets Today – As high as it gets?

15 September 2023

Todays podcast   ECB opts to hike, but taken as dovish with guidance read as a peak in rates Euro -0.8% and European yields are lower US Retail Sales data stronger in August, though offset by revisions AU Employment bounced in August Coming up: China Activity & MLF rate, NZ Manufacturing PMI, US UMich confidence […]

Markets Today – As high as it gets?
Markets Today – Breathe

Markets Today – Breathe

12 September 2023

Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]

Markets Today – Breathe
Markets Today – Slow Ride

Markets Today – Slow Ride

8 September 2023

Yields are generally lower globally after a boost to US 2-year yields from lower jobless claims proved short-lived while equities declined.

Markets Today – Slow Ride
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

5 September 2023

It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – The Best

Markets Today – The Best

4 September 2023

Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried

Markets Today – The Best
Markets Today – Hot and Cold

Markets Today – Hot and Cold

31 August 2023

US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.

Markets Today – Hot and Cold
Navigating net zero – business survey 2023

Navigating net zero – business survey 2023

30 August 2023

The new report asks 800-900 Australian corporates across the non-farm business sector (who may or may not be NAB customers) on their progress, plans and strategies to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions.

Navigating net zero – business survey 2023
Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers

Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers

30 August 2023

Softer US consumer confidence and a JOLTs report suggesting ongoing rebalancing in the labour market saw the US dollar and US yields lower, while equities were higher.

Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers
Markets Today – Play it Safe

Markets Today – Play it Safe

28 August 2023

Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.

Markets Today – Play it Safe
Markets Today – Falling

Markets Today – Falling

24 August 2023

Yields were generally lower globally as PMI data came in softer than expectations, with deterioration most pronounced in German Services. The AUD was stronger, as were US equities, with tech leading once again ahead of much anticipated earnings from Nvidia.

Markets Today – Falling
Markets Today – Marking Time

Markets Today – Marking Time

23 August 2023

US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.

Markets Today – Marking Time
Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried

17 August 2023

Todays podcast FOMC Minutes show concern about upside risks to inflation US yields higher led by 5bp rise in 10yr Equities were lower, S&P500 -0.8% with declines late in the session Asia equities weighed by China concerns AUD -0.5% against a broadly stronger dollar at 0.6421 Coming up: AU Employment, NZ PPI, JN Machinery Orders, […]

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried
Markets Today – When it rains it pours

Markets Today – When it rains it pours

15 August 2023

US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD

Markets Today – When it rains it pours
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

10 August 2023

Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Markets Today – Sour Candy

Markets Today – Sour Candy

9 August 2023

Risk appetite has been weighed over the past 24 hours by a trio of soft China data, a surprise ‘windfall’ tax on bank profits in Italy, and a downgrade of a number of small and mid-sized banks by Moody’s.

Markets Today – Sour Candy
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

8 August 2023

Northern hemisphere summer holidays and a lack of data has seen markets treading water ahead of US CPI figures on Thursday.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Pump It

Markets Today – Pump It

2 August 2023

The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.

Markets Today – Pump It
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams

Markets Today – Sweet Dreams

1 August 2023

Markets were generally quiet to start to week ahead of key risk events later in the week (BoE Thursday, US ISM Services Thursday, US Payrolls Friday).

Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
Markets Today – Better than you

Markets Today – Better than you

28 July 2023

Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.

Markets Today – Better than you
Markets Today – Shivers

Markets Today – Shivers

25 July 2023

Weak European PMIs have seen yields fall, though moves in US Treasuries retraced latter in the day.

Markets Today – Shivers
Markets Today – Slow and low

Markets Today – Slow and low

18 July 2023

Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.

Markets Today – Slow and low
Markets Today – Getting better

Markets Today – Getting better

17 July 2023

A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.

Markets Today – Getting better
Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

14 July 2023

After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun
Markets Today – Waiting for the night

Markets Today – Waiting for the night

12 July 2023

Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.

Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Markets Today – Maybe Next Time

Markets Today – Maybe Next Time

5 July 2023

The RBA met yesterday and held rates steady. Other than that, it was a very quiet 24 hours characterised by thin trading alongside the US 4 July holiday.

Markets Today – Maybe Next Time
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

3 July 2023

Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

30 June 2023

The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

28 June 2023

Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
Markets Today – No relief

Markets Today – No relief

22 June 2023

Powell added little new information in House testimony, but the US dollar was weaker and equities were lower. UK CPI data surprised higher ahead of the BoE later today

Markets Today – No relief
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2023

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2023

21 June 2023

The NAB Rural Commodities Index has continued to fall over autumn and into winter, largely reflecting steep declines in cattle and lamb prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2023

Report

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

20 June 2023

European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

16 June 2023

US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?

Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?

14 June 2023

US CPI was in line with expectations, adding to confidence the FOMC will skip at tomorrow’s meeting even as yields pushed higher. Strong UK labour market saw UK yields surge.

Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

13 June 2023

After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
Markets Today – Consequences

Markets Today – Consequences

7 June 2023

It has been a quiet 24 hours in markets with generally small market movements, while the Australian dollar held onto its gains following yesterday RBA rate hike, 0.8% higher against the US dollar.

Markets Today – Consequences
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

5 June 2023

A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
Markets Today – Mr Brightside

Markets Today – Mr Brightside

2 June 2023

A positive night for risk sentiment with equities up (S&P500 +1.0%; Eurostoxx50 +0.9%), USD down (DXY -0.7%), and yields lower (US 10yr -3.8bps to 3.60% and 2yr -6.4bps to 4.34%).

Markets Today – Mr Brightside
Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

31 May 2023

After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

30 May 2023

Public Holidays in the US, UK and Germany made for a very quiet night as far as market moves are concerned.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Now That I Found You

Markets Today – Now That I Found You

29 May 2023

US equities were higher on Friday as hopes grew of a debt ceiling deal, ahead of news on the weekend that an agreement in principle had indeed been found. US data was strong and Fed tightening expectations firmed.

Markets Today – Now That I Found You
Markets Today – Tug of War

Markets Today – Tug of War

24 May 2023

The absence of a debt ceiling deal weighs on risk sentiment even as Biden calls talks ‘productive,’ while global PMIs reaffirm the stark divergence between services and goods.

Markets Today – Tug of War
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

22 May 2023

US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
Markets Today – Dance Monkey

Markets Today – Dance Monkey

3 May 2023

Big moves in markets overnight as US regional bank worries reignited, signs of catering in European loan demand, and a sharp fall in US job openings.

Markets Today – Dance Monkey
Markets Today – Resolution

Markets Today – Resolution

2 May 2023

US yields are higher and the dollar stronger with little fallout from the failure of First Republic, being acquired by JP Morgan in an FDIC-supported deal.

Markets Today – Resolution
Markets Today – A lot to digest

Markets Today – A lot to digest

1 May 2023

The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.

Markets Today – A lot to digest
Markets Today – No Help Coming

Markets Today – No Help Coming

27 April 2023

The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.

Markets Today – No Help Coming
Markets Today – The Reason

Markets Today – The Reason

21 April 2023

Weaker second-tier US data has helped push global yields lower, while disappointing earnings by Tesla (-9.7%) and talk of margin compression dragged down equities.

Markets Today – The Reason
Markets Today – Shake it up

Markets Today – Shake it up

20 April 2023

The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations

Markets Today – Shake it up
Markets Today – Love Is In The Air

Markets Today – Love Is In The Air

14 April 2023

Todays podcast Soft US PPI helps drive a risk-on rally Adds to views the US Fed is almost done USD falls, and AUD and NZD outperform Yields mixed, equities up ahead of earnings Coming up: US Retail Sales, US Bank Earnings “Love is in the air, everywhere I look around; Love is in the air, […]

Markets Today – Love Is In The Air
Markets Today – Waiting for you

Markets Today – Waiting for you

12 April 2023

It was a quiet session overnight ahead of key risk events later in the week (US CPI is on Wednesday and bank earnings are on Friday, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan).

Markets Today – Waiting for you
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

5 April 2023

A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
Markets Today – Stick or Twist

Markets Today – Stick or Twist

4 April 2023

Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today

Markets Today – Stick or Twist
Markets Today – Love so soft

Markets Today – Love so soft

3 April 2023

A softer than expected US Core PCE Deflator (0.3% m/m vs. 0.4% expected) helped push yields lower on Friday (US 10yr -8.1bps to 3.47%).

Markets Today – Love so soft
Markets Today – It’s All Good

Markets Today – It’s All Good

30 March 2023

The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.

Markets Today – It’s All Good
Markets Today – Relative Calm

Markets Today – Relative Calm

29 March 2023

There has been little top-level news flow over the past 24 hours, which has seen markets relatively calm by the standards of recent weeks.

Markets Today – Relative Calm
Markets Today – Night of hunters

Markets Today – Night of hunters

27 March 2023

Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.

Markets Today – Night of hunters
Markets Today – Janet

Markets Today – Janet

24 March 2023

After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.

Markets Today – Janet
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

23 March 2023

The FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%, continued QT, and kept the existing dot plot which pencils in one further hike to 5.00-5.25%. Market reaction was dovish, but was not risk on.

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

22 March 2023

Todays podcast   VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Markets Today – So Yesterday

Markets Today – So Yesterday

21 March 2023

It was another fairly volatile day following the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse, though overall the deal seems to have found some cautious acceptance.

Markets Today – So Yesterday
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

20 March 2023

A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

14 March 2023

Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

10 March 2023

Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Markets Today – Get Set

Markets Today – Get Set

9 March 2023

Markets broadly held onto Tuesday’s wild moves, which were driven by US Fed Chair Powell’s Senate Testimony. Overnight Powell spoke again to the House.

Markets Today – Get Set
Markets Today: Warning Sign

Markets Today: Warning Sign

8 March 2023

The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.

Markets Today: Warning Sign
Markets Today: I Feel Better

Markets Today: I Feel Better

6 March 2023

The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.

Markets Today: I Feel Better
Markets Today: (No) Resistance

Markets Today: (No) Resistance

3 March 2023

The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.

Markets Today: (No) Resistance
Markets Today: 99 Luftballons

Markets Today: 99 Luftballons

2 March 2023

The US 10yr finally breached 4.00% for the first time since November, following five days of resistance. A hot German CPI and renewed price pressure in the Manufacturing ISM drove, while risk assets were mixed given the strong China PMIs yesterday

Markets Today: 99 Luftballons
Markets Today: I won’t back down 

Markets Today: I won’t back down 

1 March 2023

Upside surprises to European inflation out of Spain and France have seen ECB pricing and European yields push higher, with some bleed through into the US. Elsewhere, US equities are little changed, shrugging off soft consumer confidence data, but are and on track for a monthly decline of more than 2%.

Markets Today: I won’t back down 
Markets Today:  You’ve Got a Friend in Me

Markets Today: You’ve Got a Friend in Me

28 February 2023

A quiet start to the week with no top-tier data. The biggest piece of news was the EU and UK agreeing to a new Northern Ireland trade agreement, now termed the Windsor Agreement.

Markets Today:  You’ve Got a Friend in Me
Markets Today:  Too Hot

Markets Today: Too Hot

27 February 2023

The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.

Markets Today:  Too Hot
Markets Today: Wages Day

Markets Today: Wages Day

23 February 2023

In Australia yesterday, WPI wages data showed less wages pressure than feared. WPI grew 0.8% q/q and 3.3% y/y, 0.2ppts below the market consensus and RBA expectations.

Markets Today: Wages Day
Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism

Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism

27 January 2023

Since Australia Day the two biggest pieces of news were the BoC explicitly signalling a pause to the hiking cycle on Wednesday after hiking by 25bps, and US Q4 GDP which although beating expectations had a soft underbelly (2.9% annualised vs. 2.6% expected; but private domestic just 0.2%).

Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism
MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing

MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing

18 January 2023

As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.

MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
Markets Today: Early year optimism

Markets Today: Early year optimism

11 January 2023

Economic news flow overnight has been relatively light, though playing with the grain of the suggestion from last week’s US data (ISM Services) that the US is in process of losing its global growth leadership position.

Markets Today: Early year optimism
Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer

Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer

15 December 2022

Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.

Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
NAB’s Renewables Survey November 2022

NAB’s Renewables Survey November 2022

23 November 2022

NAB’s 2022 Renewables Survey signals a further acceleration of Australia’s transition to renewable energy and net zero carbon emissions policies, a trend we expect to see globally into 2030.

NAB’s Renewables Survey November 2022
Markets Today: Oil, more or less?

Markets Today: Oil, more or less?

22 November 2022

Oil market volatility is showing no signs of let-up , Brent crude down to a low of $83 overnight on a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Saudi Arabia was contemplating a 500,000 barrels per day production increase from December.

Markets Today: Oil, more or less?
Markets Today: A rare dull day

Markets Today: A rare dull day

21 November 2022

Latest Fed speak from Boston Fed President Collins, suggests 75bps is still in play for December, noting markets price around 52bps for the December meeting.

Markets Today: A rare dull day
Markets Today: Tighter than ever

Markets Today: Tighter than ever

18 November 2022

US yields are higher and the dollar stronger in a modest and reversal of some of last week’s post CPI moves as Fed speakers remain stubborn that rates will continue to go higher to get to a level that is sufficiently restrictive.

Markets Today: Tighter than ever
MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?

MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?

17 November 2022

Fed speakers were clear that a pause is not imminent and there is more to do, even as they may move at a slower pace, while stronger US retail sales numbers showed resilience in spending, providing some small counter to the burst of optimism after softer-than-expected US inflation data last week.

MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?
Markets Today: A step too far

Markets Today: A step too far

16 November 2022

It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD

Markets Today: A step too far
Markets Today: A slight reality check

Markets Today: A slight reality check

15 November 2022

The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.

Markets Today: A slight reality check
MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again

MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again

7 November 2022

Risk appetite soared on Friday as Chinese whispers swept markets last week that China had put together a ‘conditional re-opening plan’, reportedly mapping out a material re-opening by March 2023.

MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again
Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race

Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race

2 November 2022

It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.

Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race
Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM

Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM

25 October 2022

The UK has a new PM in Rishi Sunak, and gilts have rallied in response. UK 10yr gilt yields were 31bp lower at 3.75%. That’s 90bp off their peak of 4.64%, but still about 60bp above their level before the Truss Premiership.

Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM
MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in

MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in

24 October 2022

Friday’s offshore markets produced as many fireworks as we have seen on just about any day this year with the mere suggestion of the Fed stepping down from 75bps to a 50bps incremental rate hike in December producing a fierce rally in US equities.

MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in
Markets Today: The battle for Britain

Markets Today: The battle for Britain

21 October 2022

Terminal Fed Funds pricing have lifted to 5.00% by March 2023 from 4.92% last week and continue to price a 75bp hike at the upcoming November FOMC meeting and a 75% chance of a follow up 75bp at the December meeting.

Markets Today: The battle for Britain
Markets Today: Full reversal, for today

Markets Today: Full reversal, for today

20 October 2022

Yields rose to fresh cycle highs and risk appetite soured. US equities were lower, halting a 2-day rally despite relatively upbeat earnings from the likes of Netflix and United Airlines.

Markets Today: Full reversal, for today
Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain

Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain

11 October 2022

Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.

Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain
Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise

Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise

5 October 2022

Yesterday 25bps RBA cash rate rise, defied the broad consensus among economists and investors (~45bps was priced in for the meeting) but which was justified by the Board in part on the premise that “the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time”.

Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in

MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in

4 October 2022

A surprise U-turn by the UK government on the fiscal package and a weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) have driven a large fall in global yields.

MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in
Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet

Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet

14 September 2022

Today’s podcast Overview Rumours of inflation’s demise much exaggerated US CPI shocks to the upside: stocks, bonds take fright USD bounces back, AUD and NZD both down by more than 2% Next week’s Fed debate now seen to be between 75 and 100bps (83bps priced) German ZEW survey readings slumps while US NFIB Business Optimism […]

Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet
Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates

Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates

9 September 2022

It has been all about the ECB and Fed overnight with the former delivering a jumbo hike and hinting at more to come while Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to act forcefully against inflation

Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates
MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today

MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today

6 September 2022

Eurozone bonds yields and stocks falling on the latest jump in energy prices – both oil and gas – following confirmation the NordSteeam1 gas pipeline will remain shut while Russian sanctions are in place.

MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today
Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment

Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment

5 September 2022

A goldilocks payrolls report failed to support risk assets on Friday, with equities and the USD quickly reversing on news that Russia was not restarting gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline

Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment
This morning’s happy birthday call

This morning’s happy birthday call

29 August 2022

After clocking 5.5 million podcast plays and 15,000 daily listeners, NAB’s Morning Call is celebrating six years of market highlights, with even more expert analysis to come.

This morning’s happy birthday call

Podcast

Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe

Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe

25 August 2022

Another night devoid of top-tier data or news flow. The past week has been a bit like Waiting for Godot with markets apprehensive ahead of US Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe
Markets Today:  Shopping to the very end

Markets Today: Shopping to the very end

22 August 2022

NAB's Rodrigo Catril says the Canadians are out shopping; we also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949.

Markets Today:  Shopping to the very end
Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ

Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ

17 August 2022

After a negative start, US equities managed to end the day in positive territory supported by better than expected earnings reports from retailers.

Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ
Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?

Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?

11 August 2022

It was all about US CPI overnight with markets reacting sharply to a lower than expected print with Equity and FX markets taking the CPI miss as a positive signal, taking some pressure off the Fed and a sign that inflation has peaked.

Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?
Markets Today: Inflation Day

Markets Today: Inflation Day

10 August 2022

There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.

Markets Today: Inflation Day
Markets Today: Markets in Limbo

Markets Today: Markets in Limbo

9 August 2022

China is continuing its military drills around Taiwan, but that hasn’t impacted markets apart from gold (+0.7% to 1,787.61) retaining some slight geopolitical risk premium.

Markets Today: Markets in Limbo
Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

8 August 2022

An all-round stronger than expected US employment report Friday dominated the end-of-week market price action; whether they extend or at least partially reverse this week hinges in large part on Wednesday’s US July CPI data.

Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?
MT: Shares down, consumers change focus

MT: Shares down, consumers change focus

27 July 2022

More price increases are likely for food and grocery. If they continue to rise in Q3 and Q4, it is hard to see US core inflation numbers moderate sufficiently for the Fed to pivot.

MT: Shares down, consumers change focus
Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA

Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA

25 July 2022

A round of softer than expected PMIs on Friday added further fuel to ongoing concerns over a global economic slowdown with the move into contractionary mode for both the EuroZone composite and US Services PMIs the main culprits.

Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA
Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero

Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero

22 July 2022

The ECB hiked rates by a more-than-expected 50bps, taking the deposit rate back to 0% and ending its negative interest rate policy that has been in place since 2014

Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2022

21 July 2022

The last month has brought big changes for Australian agriculture, with global growth concerns hitting many commodity prices, but seasonal conditions still mostly supportive and further signs that input costs are stabilising.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2022

28 June 2022

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen further gains in most agricultural commodity prices, tentative signs of a stabilisation in fertiliser prices, combined with a lower AUD and a weakening global growth outlook.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2022

Report

Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric

Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric

20 June 2022

US and European equities showed signs of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week which was not helped by Fed Chair Powell's words that the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability.

Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric
Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial

Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial

10 June 2022

Announcing the end of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as of July 1, the ECB also pre-announced a 25bps rise in interest rates out of its July meeting with a further rise planned out of the Sept meeting.

Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2022

17 May 2022

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen three key changes, namely more rain forecast, ongoing inflationary pressures making central banks more hawkish and a materially weaker global economic outlook.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2022

Report

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week

28 April 2022

News of Russia’s decision to cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria triggered a 30% jump in EU gas prices at the open before eventually settling 10% higher.

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope

Markets Today: A glimmer of hope

9 March 2022

Markets remain volatile unable to confidently price implications from the news flow given the complex state of the global economy

Markets Today: A glimmer of hope
Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices

Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices

4 March 2022

EU considering further measures against Russia overnight which would allow them to impose tariffs and quotas to Russian exports, further disrupting global trade.

Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices
Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting

Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting

3 March 2022

Russia’s Ukraine invasion and sanctions continue to roil commodity markets which were already tight given the increase in demand from a reopening global economy and low inventories

Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting
Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets

Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets

2 December 2021

The US CDC has just identified the first case of Omicron in the United States – joining the UK, Switzerland and Brazil overnight – at a time when US infection rates of the delta variant had already started creeping back up.

Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty

Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty

30 November 2021

Global markets have seen a modest retracement of many of last Friday’s violent ‘risk-off’ moves, with equities higher in Europe, so too US government yields up, as too is oil, but in all cases to nowhere near Friday’s closing levels.

Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
Markets Today: Have a little faith

Markets Today: Have a little faith

12 November 2021

The US has been out for Veterans Day, though stock markets have been open and have recouped a little of their pre and post US CPI losses

Markets Today: Have a little faith
AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings

AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings

9 November 2021

In this Weekly we look at Australia’s latest monthly deficit figures ahead of MYEFO in December, which show the deficit is set to come in much better than expected even with Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra having been in lockdown

AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings
Markets Today: Tighter but taking time

Markets Today: Tighter but taking time

4 November 2021

No surprises from the FOMC in its formal policy pronouncement, the Fed announcing a November start to the QE tapering process at the as-expected pace of $15bn per month.

Markets Today: Tighter but taking time
Markets Today: Going bond crazy

Markets Today: Going bond crazy

1 November 2021

US equities have remained resilient and oblivious to the volatility seen in rates markets amid increasing concerns over higher inflation and the prospect of Fed funds rate hikes coming sooner than expected.

Markets Today: Going bond crazy
Markets Today: Going bond crazy

Markets Today: Going bond crazy

28 October 2021

A volatile night for rates markets with short-end rates shooting up driven by hawkish signals from yesterday’s Aussie Q3 CPI and Bank of Canada meeting, but longer-end rates tumbling after the UK budget showed a sharply lower debt profile.

Markets Today: Going bond crazy
Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal

Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal

25 October 2021

Friday’s main economic events, namely the ‘flash’ PMIs, tell us that there is little reason to fear stagnation, for the time being at least, given still elevated levels for all readings across Europe and the US.

Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

21 October 2021

The good news just keeps rolling on for Australian agriculture, with already very good seasonal conditions boosted by the increasing possibility of a La Nina event, combined with ongoing commodity price strength.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

Insight

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention

11 October 2021

US September payrolls were a big miss, but strong revisions to prior months alongside a decline in the unemployment rate and lift in hourly earnings resulted in a relative subdued reaction by markets, suggesting the figures were strong enough to keep the Fed on track to begin its QE tapering programme in November.

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention
Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?

Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?

7 October 2021

Words from politicians of various stripes have gone a little way to alleviating two of the major concerns currently plaguing global markets, namely the ongoing energy crisis centred on Europe and the looming deadline for lifting or scrapping the US debt ceiling

Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?
Markets Today: Hospital

Markets Today: Hospital

4 October 2021

US equities finish last week strongly with positive trial results from Merck's Covid treatment drug helping sentiment.

Markets Today: Hospital
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

23 September 2021

COVID 19 continues to be the main driver of growth both in the recovery phase and as the Delta variant spreads. With vaccines looking promising 2021 looks like being a bounce back year.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

Insight

Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears

Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears

21 September 2021

A torrid day for Hong Kong’s hang Seng index yesterday, driven by sharp fall in property sector stocks and led by a 16% fall in Evergrande ahead of Thursday’s bond coupon payment day, spilled over to the global arena on Monday with equities down sharply, bond yields lower and safe haven currencies in the ascendancy.

Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears
Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?

Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?

16 September 2021

The lift in equities appears to be a case of ‘buy the dip’ with an absence of any positive news flow apart from the very second-tier Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey which surprised sharply to the upside.

Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?
Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious

Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious

13 September 2021

After a positive APAC lead, equities came under pressure again on Friday night following news the Biden administration was considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the US economy

Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious
Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering

Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering

10 September 2021

As expected, the ECB will moderate its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond buying pace in Q4 with its December meeting now a key event. China makes historic sale of oil reserves weighing on oil prices.

Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering
Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually

Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually

8 September 2021

US investors have returned from the long weekend in a cautious mood. US and EU equities are broadly weaker with big tech outperforming, helping the NASDAQ stay on the green. Core yields are also higher with supply and ECB meeting on Thursday factors at play.

Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks

Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks

7 September 2021

US markets being out for the Labor Day holiday hasn’t prevented global equity markets forging ahead. The US dollar has recouped a little of its (further) losses seen post last Friday’s US payrolls report and since AUD and NZD have been the two biggest beneficiaries of USD slippage of late, no great surprise they have lost a little more than most other currencies overnight.

Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks
Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth

Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth

2 September 2021

Ahead of US payrolls on Friday the decline in ADP private payrolls report overshadowed a better than expected ISM manufacturing print. The ADP miss points to downside risk to payrolls on Friday (the bad news), implying a likely delay to the Fed’s tapering decision (the good news).

Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls

Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls

31 August 2021

A quiet night with markets continuing to bask in the glow of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The explicit de linking of tapering to rate rises has allowed equity markets to rally, while yields have moved lower. The S&P500 rose 0.4% overnight and is up 1.3% since Jackson Hole on Friday.

Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls
Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence

Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence

30 August 2021

The lack of a starting QE gun alongside a strong message that there is a stricter test for rate hikes compare to QE tapering resulted in a risk positive reaction to the much-awaited Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A QE tapering decision remains live, although now November looks more likely than September.

Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence
Markets Today:  High hopes keep getting higher

Markets Today: High hopes keep getting higher

26 August 2021

In a low trading environment, equities have edged higher again with procyclical sectors leading the way. The bond market continues to catch up to the positive vibes evident in other markets with core yields higher across the board.

Markets Today:  High hopes keep getting higher
Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar

Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar

25 August 2021

Another day of equity gains and commodities prices. Markets are still basking in the glow of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine having received regulatory approval on Monday. China’s delta outbreak also appears to be under control with two consecutive days of no new domestic cases.

Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar
Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news

Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news

24 August 2021

Risk assets have enjoyed a positive start to the new week with European and US equities extending Friday’s rebound. After a positive lead from Asia, European and US equities closed the Monday session with gains across the board, extending Friday’s rebound.

Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news
Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped

Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped

23 August 2021

Mid-morning in Friday’s US trading day, Bob Kaplan said he may rethink his call for the Fed to quickly start to taper its $120 billion per month in bond purchases if it looks like the spread of the coronavirus delta variant is slowing economic growth. This didn’t have a big impact on bonds, but we can date the start of the run-up in US equity indices and a pull back in the USD to his comments hitting the screens, testament to the ongoing sensitivity the currency and risk markets are exhibiting to the question of when QE tapering starts.

Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
Markets Today: Central banks holding back

Markets Today: Central banks holding back

19 August 2021

Following a fair amount of volatility in the immediate wake of the FOMC Minutes US equities are lower, bond yields and the USD are lower, the latter allowing the AUD some relief after posting a new year-to-date low of 0.7229 in the run up to the Minutes, but the gains are already proving hard to hold.

Markets Today: Central banks holding back
Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow

Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow

17 August 2021

The much weaker than expected China data, lack of encouraging covid news over the weekend – no more so than in Australia – and the news out of Afghanistan which adds another dimension to ever-present geopolitical concerns (in this case, international terrorism) perennially cited as a risk to positive market sentiment – haven’t prevented the S&P 500 closing at a new record high.

Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
Markets Today: Back to uncertainty

Markets Today: Back to uncertainty

16 August 2021

US consumer sentiment plunges to below pre-pandemic levels with yields tumbling (US 10yr -8.2bps), but equities steady to higher with the S&P500 +0.2% to a new record high. For bonds, the plunge in consumer sentiment is an amber signal for the near-term, which if realised in real activity may impact on the timing and form of tapering and puts the focus squarely on retail sales on Tuesday

Markets Today: Back to uncertainty
Markets Today:  On the road to nowhere

Markets Today: On the road to nowhere

13 August 2021

Quiet night but S&P 500 ekes out a third successive record daily close. Stronger than expected US PPI a reminder that supply chain disruptions are still with us.

Markets Today:  On the road to nowhere
Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it

Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it

12 August 2021

US inflation moderates, taking the pressure down a notch and playing into the Fed’s transitory narrative. It’s no surprise to see yields and the USD lower in the wake. The US 10yr fell 1.5bps to 1.33%, though CPI was the catalyst for a larger fall after it reached an intra-day high of 1.3743%.

Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it
Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed

Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed

10 August 2021

Markets opened with a cautious mood to start the week , reflecting on both the stellar US payrolls report on Friday and the surge in the delta variant which has seen China tighten restrictions and Israel contemplate another lockdown. The Fed’s Bostic was the first voter to speak post payrolls, indicating that the Fed should taper after one or two more payroll prints.

Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed
Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

8 August 2021

Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’
Markets Today: Watch Germany go

Markets Today: Watch Germany go

6 August 2021

The S&P500 (+0.6%) hit another record high ahead of US Payrolls later tonight. Payrolls of course key to the Fed’s decision on the timing and pace of tapering (see Coming Up for details). Market moves elsewhere were more limited

Markets Today: Watch Germany go
Markets Today: Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?

Markets Today: Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?

2 August 2021

Lots of economic data to digest on Friday but none of which had a major impact on markets, while Saturday’s China official PMI data showing a further (and bigger than expected) fall in its Manufacturing Index threatens to play with the grain of recent AUD underperformance.

Markets Today: Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?
Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks

Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks

30 July 2021

US Q2 GDP was the data release to watch overnight and while the print missed expectations, a healthier US consumer that seemingly can’t get enough was the bright spot and carried the day.

Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks
Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’

29 July 2021

A couple of comments from the Fed chair during the post-FOMC meeting Statement have been responsible for most of the market price action, notably, Powell’s remarks “we’re some ways away from substantial progress on jobs” and that “the Fed is nowhere near considering raising rates”.

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’
Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors

Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors

28 July 2021

For the first time, we are now seeing contagion from the sell-off in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese shares, to global markets – the NASDAQ in particular, ending the day down 1.2% in front of the earnings results from Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.

Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors
Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows

Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows

27 July 2021

After an initial hint of contagion, European and US equities looked past Asian concerns over China’s regulatory crackdown, closing the day with modest gains at or near record highs. Meanwhile the real story in the rates markets has been the record move decline in the 10y US real rate.

Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason

Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason

16 July 2021

There’s more caution in the markets today, even though numbers out of Australia, the US and China were better than expected. There’s a bit of battle fatigue hitting the market says NAB’s David de Garis.

Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason
Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks

Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks

5 July 2021

The Fed will not see the need to act swiftly after Friday’s payrolls numbers, but it will be a different story for thew RBA tomorrow. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, given the improvements in the Australian economy, the need to run QE at $100 billion every six months is not there anymore.

Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks
Markets Today: The last day of treading water

Markets Today: The last day of treading water

2 July 2021

Despite lots of data for markets to chew over, they are looking for a directional lead from non-farm payrolls, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Whether they’ll get it or not is the question.

Markets Today: The last day of treading water
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

22 June 2021

Agricultural commodity prices continue to perform generally very well, rounding out a generally strong period for many agricultural producers.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

Insight

Markets Today: Vaccine concerns

Markets Today: Vaccine concerns

9 April 2021

Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here young is anyone under 50.

Markets Today: Vaccine concerns
Markets Today: SLR and all that

Markets Today: SLR and all that

22 March 2021

The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage ratio (SLR) ending on 31st March.

Markets Today: SLR and all that
Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

10 March 2021

COVID-19 continues to present some uncertainty around the outlook, particularly with the rollout of vaccines to emerging markets lagging that of advanced economies.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Insight

Markets Today: A big bond sell-off

Markets Today: A big bond sell-off

26 February 2021

Despite the increasing dovishness of central bankers the markets have been selling government bonds like they are going out of fashion.

Markets Today: A big bond sell-off
Markets Today: Markets bide their time

Markets Today: Markets bide their time

11 February 2021

Markets have been fairly subdued on the back of soft inflation numbers in the US, and as investors hold off for any revelations from Jerome Powell as he addresses the Economic Club of New York.

Markets Today: Markets bide their time
Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in

Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in

22 December 2020

You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine.

Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in
Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Minerals Energy Outlook: December 2020

9 December 2020

Markets have been buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news, which could correspond with stronger economic activity and demand for commodities next year.

Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Insight

Markets Today: Gone fishing

Markets Today: Gone fishing

30 November 2020

The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel.

Markets Today: Gone fishing
Markets Today: Lockdown jitters

Markets Today: Lockdown jitters

20 November 2020

The markets are more focused on the short-term economic hit of lockdowns than the longer-term vaccine fuelled positive outlook.

Markets Today: Lockdown jitters
Markets Today: And another one

Markets Today: And another one

17 November 2020

Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness.

Markets Today: And another one
Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore

Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore

10 November 2020

The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) news that Pfizer have successfully completed stage three of their COVID-19 vaccine trials, with an astonishing 90% success rate.

Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore
Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November

Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November

2 November 2020

After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the difficult job of determining how to see the economy through rising infection numbers.

Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November
Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID

Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID

6 October 2020

As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of the Heroes Act, adding more stimulus to the US economy.

Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID
Markets Today: One big October surprise

Markets Today: One big October surprise

5 October 2020

Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems he could be returning to the White House as soon as today. So, do the markets take back some of their risk concerns, and focus on the positives of the situation?

Markets Today: One big October surprise
Markets Today: Are bailouts bygones?

Markets Today: Are bailouts bygones?

25 September 2020

Equities were rising again in the US overnight on the hopes that a stimulus deal would be struck between the GOP and Democrats, but as optimism turned to reality, prices fell, the US dollar regained some of its strength and bond yields weakened.

Markets Today: Are bailouts bygones?
Markets Today: Pound pummelled

Markets Today: Pound pummelled

11 September 2020

The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdrawal Agreement.

Markets Today: Pound pummelled
Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

2 September 2020

Q2 GDP fell by a massive 7% (-6.3% y/y), confirming the large hit to economic activity as a result of the shutdown to limit the COVID-19 pandemic.

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

Insight

Markets Today: Russian roulette

Markets Today: Russian roulette

12 August 2020

Markets in Europe seem to have been encouraged by the news that Russia is to start vaccinating key workers in the next few weeks.

Markets Today: Russian roulette
Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs

Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs

11 August 2020

The latest JOLTs (job openings) showed there are 5.9 million jobs available, more than expected, but it didn’t give markets any kick.

Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs
Markets Today: Markets torn

Markets Today: Markets torn

22 June 2020

Last week was a choppy week as markets tried to balance out positive economic news against rising concerns about COVID-19 infections.

Markets Today: Markets torn
Markets Today: investors run for cover

Markets Today: investors run for cover

12 June 2020

There’s been a swift move to bonds and safe haven currencies since the Fed’s message yesterday that it would take a couple of years at least for life to return to normal.

Markets Today: investors run for cover
Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

13 May 2020

Commodity prices generally fell in April – with particularly steep falls in oil and LNG markets, along with declines in iron ore and coal.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020
Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits

Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits

14 February 2020

The markets slipped momentarily into risk-off as the number of COVID-19 infections jumped in volume, but concern slipped back a little as it became clear that the way cases were being measured had changed.

Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020

12 February 2020

Good January rainfall across key agricultural production areas drove the NAB Rural Commodities Index 4.6% higher this month, despite the impact of bushfires and coronavirus.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020
Markets Today: US equities back

Markets Today: US equities back

4 February 2020

US equities bounced back today – perhaps because there wasn’t a lot of new news on the coronavirus but also because US ISM numbers exceeding expectations.

Markets Today: US equities back
Markets Today: Better

Markets Today: Better

8 January 2020

It’s been a particularly bad 24 hours for the AUD (if you aren’t an Australian exporter, that is).

Markets Today: Better
Markets Today: A quiet day

Markets Today: A quiet day

10 December 2019

Markets have been calm overnight, in wait and see mode ahead of a series of more important events this week.

Markets Today: A quiet day
Markets Today: New trade hope

Markets Today: New trade hope

26 September 2019

The markets reacted positively to indications from President Trump that a trade deal with China could be close.

Markets Today: New trade hope
Markets Today: trade war turnaround & Germany downturn

Markets Today: trade war turnaround & Germany downturn

27 August 2019

The markets have done a complete u-turn overnight on the back of positive news on the US China trade talks and some wins from the G7 summit, including proposals to reform WTO rules and a potential US Iran meeting.

Markets Today: trade war turnaround & Germany downturn
Markets Today: Germany to spend

Markets Today: Germany to spend

19 August 2019

The surprise news on Friday were reports that the German government might relax some of its spending rules to splash out and prevent a recession.

Markets Today: Germany to spend
Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

14 August 2019

US dollar NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecasted to increase by 2.1% yoy in Q3 2019, however underlying trends remain highly mixed. Higher export prices for LNG and iron ore (despite more recent spot price falls) are the key contributors, while both thermal and metallurgical coal are weaker, as are most base metals.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019
Markets Today: Tariffs bite

Markets Today: Tariffs bite

10 July 2019

Ray Attrill explains how the latest small business survey data in the US shows signs that tariffs on Chinese imports might be starting to make their mark.

Markets Today: Tariffs bite
Markets Today: Markets on hold

Markets Today: Markets on hold

9 July 2019

There were no big movements on US equities or bonds overnight, as markets wait to see what Jerome Powell has to say in his Congressional testimonies mid-week.

Markets Today: Markets on hold
Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

24 June 2019

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is expected to increase by 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q2 2019, a little stronger than anticipated in May.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019
Markets Today: After the Fed

Markets Today: After the Fed

21 June 2019

The market continues to respond to the Dovish Fed statement yesterday with a rally in US equities, falls in Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar.

Markets Today: After the Fed
Markets Today: Party for two

Markets Today: Party for two

29 May 2019

Consumer confidence in the US hit a six month high, yet there’s a continued flight to bonds, pushing Treasury yields to the lowest level since September 2017.

Markets Today: Party for two
Markets Today: Cold war

Markets Today: Cold war

24 May 2019

There have been significant moves overnight, with the US dollar losing ground against the Yen and Swiss Franc.

Markets Today: Cold war
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019

13 May 2019

Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 1.1% in April, largely reflecting higher cattle, lamb, dairy and cotton prices, offsetting further declines in grain.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019
Markets Today: Soft parade

Markets Today: Soft parade

2 April 2019

There was continued optimism in the markets overnight with more strong data reads from China and the US.

Markets Today: Soft parade
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019

26 March 2019

Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 0.2% in February – “above water” only due to strong gains in fruit and vegetables, dairy and to a lesser extent wool and sugar.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019
Markets Today: Rock steady

Markets Today: Rock steady

20 February 2019

The US dollar is a little weaker this morning as the deadline for US tariffs on Chinese goods looms.

Markets Today: Rock steady
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

12 February 2019

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 2.7% this quarter – driven almost entirely by the upturn in iron ore prices.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019
In Focus: Dairy January 2019

In Focus: Dairy January 2019

22 January 2019

Global Dairy Trade auction results have seen some upside since December after a fairly weak run over much of 2018.

In Focus: Dairy January 2019
Markets Today: The dollar is dying

Markets Today: The dollar is dying

8 January 2019

Positive sentiment in the US on Friday and in the APAC session yesterday has carried through into overnight markets notwithstanding a downside surprise in the US non-manufacturing ISM report.

Markets Today: The dollar is dying
Markets Today: Good things come in threes

Markets Today: Good things come in threes

7 January 2019

It was far from a quiet Christmas period, with volatility driven by data, trade concerns, a government shutdown and a very different attitude coming from the US Fed.

Markets Today: Good things come in threes
Markets Today: 2018 in Review

Markets Today: 2018 in Review

24 December 2018

2018 has been a year of surprises. In the final podcast for the year, the team discuss the year that was and what to expect in 2019.

Markets Today: 2018 in Review
Markets Today: These foolish things

Markets Today: These foolish things

13 December 2018

US equities have had a shot in the arm following a Wall Street Journal report that China might open up access to their domestic markets for foreign companies.

Markets Today: These foolish things
Markets Today: Can you deal with it

Markets Today: Can you deal with it

30 November 2018

The markets have been treading water ahead of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, impacted a little by the news that Peter Navarro might also be attending the dinner.

Markets Today: Can you deal with it
Markets Today: Burning down the house

Markets Today: Burning down the house

20 November 2018

US stocks take a big hit. The Aussie and New Zealand dollars seem to have come off the worst out of the major currencies with a rise in uncertainty, whereas Sterling has risen.

Markets Today: Burning down the house
Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope

Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope

2 November 2018

The US dollar staged a swift reversal overnight, with the spot index falling significantly. We’ve also seen US stocks on the rise, along with significant leaps forward for the Aussie dollar and the pound, whilst oil falls sharply.

Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope
Markets Today: What do I know?

Markets Today: What do I know?

24 October 2018

It has been another bad day at the office for equity markets, beginning in the Asian session and spreading across Europe and the US.

Markets Today: What do I know?
Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018

15 October 2018

In US dollar terms, the NAB non-rural commodity price index rose marginally in Q3 2018 – increasing by 0.4% qoq. The strong upturn in the first quarter of this year contributed to a much more significant increase in year-on-year terms – up by 8.2%.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018
Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you

Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you

18 September 2018

The Aussie dollar was on the rise overnight, even as all eyes and ears were waiting on an announcement on the next round of tariffs from the White House.

Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you
Markets Today:  The waiting game

Markets Today: The waiting game

11 September 2018

No further news on tariffs overnight calmed down emerging markets overnight and gave the Aussie dollar a short reprieve.

Markets Today:  The waiting game
Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster

Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster

6 September 2018

The Aussie dollar was higher despite continued woes in emerging markets, whilst the pound gained strength on positive hearsay on Brexit negotiations.

Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster
Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact

Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact

28 August 2018

There’s been a swift market response to a possible understanding between the US and Mexico to replace NAFTA, helping the Canadian Dollar as well as the Peso.

Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact
Markets Today: Not happy Jay

Markets Today: Not happy Jay

22 August 2018

What influence has President Trump’s discontent with the work of Jerome ‘Jay’ Powell had on the markets?

Markets Today: Not happy Jay
Markets Today: Pipes of peace

Markets Today: Pipes of peace

20 August 2018

Speculation the US and China will strike a deal on trade around November has given markets some reason for optimism.

Markets Today: Pipes of peace
Markets Today: Play with fire

Markets Today: Play with fire

6 August 2018

Markets revert to trade focus as China announces specific tariff rises on $60bn goods should the US $200bn threat come into force.

Markets Today: Play with fire
Markets Today: Pressure

Markets Today: Pressure

2 August 2018

The market reaction to today’s US announcement on Chinese import tariffs, the FOMC meeting this morning and a near certain rate rise from the Bank of England.

Markets Today: Pressure
Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ

Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ

31 July 2018

Today, a session that has been high on movement, even though it’s been low on data. And the Bank of Japan’s attempts to control bond yields has impacted bond prices across the globe.

Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ
Markets Today: Closer to fine

Markets Today: Closer to fine

18 July 2018

The move higher in front end yields boosted the USD, although the greenback was already on the ascendency early in the overnight sessions.

Markets Today: Closer to fine
Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain

Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain

11 July 2018

The next battle for Theresa May is in Brussels – will the EU accept her proposal, at least as a starting point? Plus, US ‘poised’ to release $200bn China tariff list, puncturing risk-positive offshore sentiment.

Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain
The AUD in June & FY 17-18

The AUD in June & FY 17-18

10 July 2018

In June, the AUD/USD saw a new year-to-date low – a level last seen in May 2017 | Over the fiscal year the AUD/US traded between a high of 0.8136 and a low of 0.7311.

The AUD in June & FY 17-18
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018

10 July 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.4% month on month in June, following a 3.1% gain in May. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in June. The monthly gain reflects strong lamb, wool and cotton prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

5 July 2018

NAB’s USD non-rural commodity price index declined by over 3% q/q in Q2 2018. This only partially reversed the large gain made in the previous quarter and, as a result, it is still 7.5% higher than a year ago. The fall in Q2 mainly reflected a decline in iron ore and metallurgical coal prices, although LNG export prices – linked to the price of oil – rose.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018
Markets Today: Jump

Markets Today: Jump

25 June 2018

President Trump’s protectionist measures and OPEC’s increased oil production could be the two major market influences this morning.

Markets Today: Jump
Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day

Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day

21 June 2018

The markets have moved very little today as investors contemplate the next steps in the tariff battle between the US and China. Even the EU response, with tariffs to follow on Harleys, Levis and Bourbon, did little to stir a response.

Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day
Markets Today: Anything you can do

Markets Today: Anything you can do

18 June 2018

Trade talks between the US and China took a turn for the worse at the end of last week, with the Trump administration issuing a list of $50 billion worth of products that would be hit with a 25 percent tariff.

Markets Today: Anything you can do
Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays

Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays

15 June 2018

The ECB announced today, as anticipated, that their QE program will finish at the end of the year. But markets weren’t quite expecting the anticipated delay in raising rates – which could be late in 2019.

Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018

5 June 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 3.1% month on month in May after falling 2.8% in April. On a year on year basis, the index was down 4.4% in May. The monthly gain reflects strong grain, horticultural, dairy, wool and cotton prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018
Markets Today: Strong enough

Markets Today: Strong enough

4 June 2018

After the excitement of Parmageddon last week, followed by the sudden enforcement of steel and aluminium tariffs on Trump’s supposed allies, the markets can at last look forward to a more traditional week where data and central bank policy drives the agenda.

Markets Today: Strong enough
Markets Today: Italian Summer

Markets Today: Italian Summer

29 May 2018

Italy looks set to go back to the polls. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at the market reaction on today’s Morning Call podcast.

Markets Today: Italian Summer
Markets Today: Truce

Markets Today: Truce

21 May 2018

Steven Mnuchin says the trade war with China is on-hold, for now, after the agreement that will see China supposedly buying more from the US, but not the reported extra $200 billion worth.

Markets Today: Truce
In Focus: Beef – May 2018

In Focus: Beef – May 2018

8 May 2018

2018 has been exceptionally dry across much of Australia, with knock-on downside to restocker interest and young cattle prices.

In Focus: Beef – May 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018

6 March 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.2% month on month in February, following a drop of 1.8% in January. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in February. The gain was driven by higher grain, fruit and dairy prices, offsetting falls in beef, lamb and sugar.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

20 February 2018

Stability in financial markets over 2017 and early 2018 came to abrupt end in recent weeks, with a surge in market volatility and big falls in equity markets and prices for many commodities.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018
Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017

Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017

1 December 2017

The economy is likely to have grown at a solid clip in Q3. While some pieces of the growth puzzle are falling into place, the stark divergence between business and consumer spending remains despite jobs growth. Non-mining and infrastructure investment will be encouraging for the RBA, but higher wages growth is required.

Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017
In Focus: Beef – November 2017

In Focus: Beef – November 2017

21 November 2017

The Australian beef cattle industry has enjoyed a great run over the past couple of years, with the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) hitting a record over 720c/kg in September last year.

In Focus: Beef – November 2017
Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017

Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017

4 September 2017

Q2 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 6 September at 11:30am AEST. Additional partials will be available tomorrow and may alter our forecast.

Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017

7 August 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 1.2% in July as generally higher grain prices were offset by weakness across livestock, dairy, cotton and mixed performance in horticulture.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017
Gold in focus: July 2017

Gold in focus: July 2017

13 July 2017

Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.

Gold in focus: July 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017

3 July 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017
Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017

6 June 2017

This is the second month of NAB’s new regional price indicators, in effect a separate NAB Rural Commodities Index for every region in Australia.

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017
Cropping locally, competing globally

Cropping locally, competing globally

6 April 2017

Head of Asia Business Development, NAB Business & Private Bank, Laura Mattiazzi recently hosted a roundtable discussion at the Global Food Forum addressing the challenges and opportunities facing cropping industries - and how Australian businesses can compete globally.

Cropping locally, competing globally
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017

3 April 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017
Markets Today: Strong

Markets Today: Strong

28 March 2017

The German economy is continuing to out-perform. The run of better than expected data continued, this time from the German Ifo Survey for March.

Markets Today: Strong
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017

20 March 2017

From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017
Markets Today: ECB Creaking Door

Markets Today: ECB Creaking Door

10 March 2017

As expected the ECB left its key interest rates and QE programme unchanged, but a more optimistic Draghi has helped the EUR performed and it has also pushed bond yields higher.

Markets Today: ECB Creaking Door
Markets Today: Walking on a dream redux?

Markets Today: Walking on a dream redux?

1 March 2017

Astute readers (and listeners to our early morning podcast) will note Empire of the Sun’s Walking on a dream was one of our first song titles for 2017. That title was prompted by a lack of detail around Trump’s policies ahead of inauguration day which led markets to ask “is it real”?

Markets Today: Walking on a dream redux?
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017

28 February 2017

Summer has brought extremely volatile conditions to Australia’s cropping districts. While much of eastern Australia has baked in an extraordinary heatwave, Western Australia has suffered substantial flooding.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017
Markets Today: Home on the range

Markets Today: Home on the range

27 February 2017

Another quiet end to a quiet week but with the U.S. dollar grinding out small gains despite further slippage in US bond yields (10s -6bps) and a fairly flat U.S. stock market (albeit new record closing highs for the S&P and the Dow).

Markets Today: Home on the range
Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

24 February 2017

Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016
Markets Today: Read about it

Markets Today: Read about it

24 February 2017

More focus on the US economy and the big dollar overnight in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal yesterday and followed that up overnight with two more interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Markets Today: Read about it
Markets Today: Up, up, and away

Markets Today: Up, up, and away

23 February 2017

It’s a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focussing on European politics again overnight, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year in rude economic health with evident momentum.

Markets Today: Up, up, and away
Markets Today: Livin’ on a European Prayer

Markets Today: Livin’ on a European Prayer

22 February 2017

Strong European data failed to excite markets – the exception being equities – as the upcoming French Presidential elections take centre stage. Betting markets now ascribe Eurosceptic Le Pen a 34.2% chance of winning, while a poll by Elable for L’Express magazine overnight puts her within striking distance in a run-off with Fillion with 44% of the vote – inspiration for today’s title “Livin’ on a Prayer” by Bon Jovi.

Markets Today: Livin’ on a European Prayer
In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017

In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017

21 February 2017

For the 2016-17 season, we developed a new wheat production forecast model, based on regional rainfall and state yields going back to federation, with an allowance for technological change.

In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017
Markets Today: Europa

Markets Today: Europa

21 February 2017

With the US out celebrating president’s day, Europe was always going to be the focus in the overnight session. My dad used to listen to Santana, so the first song that came to mind was “Europa”, a mellow song with no lyrics, but notable for Santana’s guitar solo.

Markets Today: Europa
Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing

Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing

20 February 2017

Just over a week ago, President Trump promised a ‘phenomenal’ tax announcement in 2-3 weeks, so as the clock ticks down to some form of announcement, market inertia is set to reign.

Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing
Markets Today: Down, down

Markets Today: Down, down

17 February 2017

Don’t be alarmed. It’s not that markets have spat the dummy, but rather US equity markets are down, having opened high, with bond yields also lower. In the currency space the USD has been softer, Euro, Sterling and the CHF stronger. The Aussie has been steady-to-lower, though hugging 0.77, supported by the soggy big buck.

Markets Today: Down, down
Markets Today: Why I got March on my mind

Markets Today: Why I got March on my mind

16 February 2017

My colleague Rodrigo Catril warned yesterday of the possibility of a US Fed March rate hike – what he termed the Ides of March. That argument gained further currency overnight with the US CPI and core‑Retail Sales printing double the market consensus.

Markets Today: Why I got March on my mind
Markets Today: Beware the ides of March

Markets Today: Beware the ides of March

15 February 2017

Reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the senate triggered a sell-off in US Treasury yields and a broad USD rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next FOMC meeting in March.

Markets Today: Beware the ides of March
India Monetary Policy: February 2017

India Monetary Policy: February 2017

14 February 2017

The RBI, somewhat surprisingly, maintained the policy repo rate at 6.25%. Uncertainty about the effects of demonetisation and sticky core inflation were factors.

India Monetary Policy: February 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

14 February 2017

The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017
Markets Today: Crawling back to you

Markets Today: Crawling back to you

14 February 2017

The message in American band Daughtry’s 2011 song later covered (with aplomb) by the Arctic Monkeys is, according to the writer, “Your significant other is in the right and just like she said it would happen, you come crawling back”

Markets Today: Crawling back to you
Markets Today: Alive and kicking

Markets Today: Alive and kicking

13 February 2017

Last week the USD regained its mojo largely thanks to President Trump's hint of a phenomenal tax policy announcement and on Friday the USD waivered, particularly against JPY when at a joint press conference with Japan’s PM Abe, President Trump responded to a question about currency devaluation saying that "we will all eventually...be at a level playing field." and then added "That's the only way you can fairly compete in trade”.

Markets Today: Alive and kicking
Markets Today: Message to my market

Markets Today: Message to my market

9 February 2017

It’s been a rather listless overnight session as the US earnings season is drawing to a close with one of the best quarters of growth for quite some quarters. But that, and the tantalising prospect that corporate tax reductions and deregulation from the Trump Administration, and hopes of better growth, seems to be priced in.

Markets Today: Message to my market
Markets Today: The quiet achiever

Markets Today: The quiet achiever

8 February 2017

In what has been a quiet night of data releases and tweets from President Trump, the USD has been the quiet achiever amid simmering political and fiscal uncertainties in Europe, softer oil prices, flat US equities and lower US Treasury yields.

Markets Today: The quiet achiever
Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

7 February 2017

It’s been something of a risk off session to open the week. There’s been a focus on the upcoming French Presidential elections, ECB President Draghi has been batting back criticism from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation (regretting nothing), US markets fretting about the extent of timing of Trump reflation, not to mention ongoing tweets.

Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien
Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)

Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)

6 February 2017

A bit of early 19th century opera to kick off the week (don’t fret, I’m sure we’ll be back in rock & roll mode for the rest of the week).

Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)
Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood

Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood

3 February 2017

The supposedly “lively” conversation that President Trump and PM Turnbull had yesterday over the Australia-US refugee deal has gotten quite a deal of not just Australian press but international press coverage overnight.

Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood
Markets Today: Fed plays a straight bat; data goes Boom Boom Pow

Markets Today: Fed plays a straight bat; data goes Boom Boom Pow

2 February 2017

The major event overnight was the US FOMC meeting where rates were left on hold as expected. There were very few changes to the post meeting statement with the Fed playing a straight bat. Markets were somewhat disappointed with Treasury yields and the US dollar reversing earlier gains that had occurred following stronger than expected US economic data.

Markets Today: Fed plays a straight bat; data goes Boom Boom Pow
Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations

Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations

1 February 2017

More unwinding of the Trump lower taxes/higher infrastructure spending US$ reflation trade has again been the order of the day. The Bloomberg spot USD dollar index is down by ¾% as markets again sell the big buck, reacting to the latest statements from the new Administration, selling kicking off earlier in the session with some safe-haven buying of JPY and CHF in response to the immigration policies.

Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations
NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016

31 January 2017

Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016
Markets Today: Don’t worry baby

Markets Today: Don’t worry baby

24 January 2017

Economic reports have been scant overnight. Trump, trade, executive orders and a White House press briefing have provided wire feedstock for news and trade into Asia trade today.

Markets Today: Don’t worry baby
Markets Today: Numero Uno

Markets Today: Numero Uno

23 January 2017

In a defiant and brief speech, President Trump made it clear that from now on “It's going to be only America first” and in what has now become a great economic debate he reiterated his view that “Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength”. Against this view, history and economic theory tells us that protectionism usually involves an increase in tariffs and a decline in trade.

Markets Today: Numero Uno
Markets Today: Some like it hot

Markets Today: Some like it hot

20 January 2017

Markets continue to digest Yellen’s speech yesterday which was seen as mildly more hawkish and positive US economic data overnight played into that view. The ECB also met last night with Draghi coming off as slightly dovish, playing down the recent uptick in inflation and remaining committed to the asset purchase program.

Markets Today: Some like it hot
On a fast boat to China

On a fast boat to China

19 January 2017

A free trade zone to expedite Australian food exports into China may soon become a reality. NAB’s Chief Customer Officer believes it’s a game changer for Australian agriculture.

On a fast boat to China
Markets Today: Walking back to happiness

Markets Today: Walking back to happiness

19 January 2017

It’s been a reversal back to USD strength overnight – including a late session kick along from the Fed Chair, more on that below - the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.35% before she stepped up to the plate, and another ½% since.

Markets Today: Walking back to happiness
Markets Today: Twice if you’re lucky

Markets Today: Twice if you’re lucky

18 January 2017

Never underestimate the ability of markets to discount the same news twice. Or in the case of the US dollar, the ability to ignore a relevant piece of news one day only to react with alarm to it a day or two later.

Markets Today: Twice if you’re lucky
In Focus: Dairy January 2017

In Focus: Dairy January 2017

17 January 2017

2016 was a very tough year for many Australian dairy producers, with farmers beginning the year amid extremely dry conditions in key dairy regions and steep cuts to farmgate prices

In Focus: Dairy January 2017
Markets Today: Happy Birthday

Markets Today: Happy Birthday

17 January 2017

In 1979 President Carter endorsed a bill to have a holiday in honour of Martin Luther King (MLK), but a Conservative Congress at the time refused to pass the bill. Eventually President Reagan signed the holiday into law in 1983 and it was first observed three years later.

Markets Today: Happy Birthday
Markets Today: A hard rain’s a-gonna fall

Markets Today: A hard rain’s a-gonna fall

16 January 2017

Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 44th President of the United States (45th if you count Grover Cleveland as both the 22nd and 24th President) will capture the world’s attention on Friday.

Markets Today: A hard rain’s a-gonna fall
Markets Today: Walking on a dream

Markets Today: Walking on a dream

13 January 2017

Walking on a Dream was the inaugural 2008 hit song by Aussie electropop outfit Empire of the Sun. That seems an apt description of how markets have been since the election of Trump with a dream run for equities and the US dollar all premised on the idea of a Trump fiscal stimulus boosting growth and inflation. Now with inauguration just a week away (20 Jan), markets are asking “is it real”?

Markets Today: Walking on a dream
Markets Today: All shook up

Markets Today: All shook up

12 January 2017

The overnight session has been a tale of two halves, a dull affair ahead of Trump press conference and a volatile session post.

Markets Today: All shook up
Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)

Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)

11 January 2017

US small business owners tend to be Republican, and those who are member of the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) overwhelmingly so. Thus optimism among NFIB members surged to its highest level since 2004 in December and with the monthly increase, from 98.4 to 105.8, the largest since 1980.

Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)
Markets Today: Brexit Poker Face

Markets Today: Brexit Poker Face

10 January 2017

Global equities were mostly lower overnight, dragged lower by the oil price. That added to an already uncertain tone following indications that the UK may be hurtling towards a harder Brexit than first thought.

Markets Today: Brexit Poker Face
Markets Today: Synergy

Markets Today: Synergy

9 January 2017

When thinking about a title for today’s note and the impact the US labour market report had on Friday’s session, Aristotle’s quote ” the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” seemed quite fitting, but way too long for a title.

Markets Today: Synergy
Markets Today:  Seasons Greetings

Markets Today: Seasons Greetings

23 December 2016

As the markets quieten down for the holiday break, we reflect on the tumultuous year we’ve just been through: Trump, Brexit, the rise of far-right politics and the tide of anti-immigration fervour.

Markets Today:  Seasons Greetings
Markets Today: Close but no cigar

Markets Today: Close but no cigar

22 December 2016

It seems unlikely that Italy’s largest Bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, will meet today’s timetable to raise five billion Euros and provide a lifeline beyond March.

Markets Today: Close but no cigar
Markets Today: We can work it out

Markets Today: We can work it out

20 December 2016

Janet Yellen gave a talk this morning reinforcing the commentary around the strength of the US economy, pointing to steady growth in jobs and rising living standards. A less rosy picture for Australia, of course, but, not bad enough for ratings agencies to act.

Markets Today: We can work it out
The Forward View – Global: December 2016

The Forward View – Global: December 2016

14 December 2016

Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth, they have been improving in the months leading up to November.

The Forward View – Global: December 2016
Markets Today: Born this way

Markets Today: Born this way

7 December 2016

Back in March 2011 Lady Gaga’s hit “Born this way” was leading the music chart in Australia and Pink was number one on the Billboard chart.

Markets Today: Born this way
Markets Today: La Dolce Vita

Markets Today: La Dolce Vita

6 December 2016

The market’s knee jerk reaction to “no” outcome from the Italian referendum saw the Euro fall back by over a big figure for an hour or so, but that was it.

Markets Today: La Dolce Vita
Markets Today: Pay 2 Play

Markets Today: Pay 2 Play

2 December 2016

Talk of oil cuts has been enough to see prices rise again overnight, up 15% this week. So what’s it doing to bond yields and the US dollar?

Markets Today: Pay 2 Play
Markets Today: Deal or no deal

Markets Today: Deal or no deal

30 November 2016

The key event this week will come from Vienna where ministers from OPEC are scheduled to meet and hopefully finalise the first cut in oil production in eight years.

Markets Today: Deal or no deal
Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016

28 November 2016

Rising oil prices from early this year and again from the middle of the year have been associated with rising medium-to-longer term US inflationary expectations (and indeed expectations globally).

Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016
Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey

Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey

25 November 2016

In his 2007 best seller “The Black Swan” Nassim Taleb uses the life of a thanksgiving turkey as an analogy for explaining a black swan occurrence i.e. a tail event that is so remote that is completely unforeseen.

Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey
Making hay while the sun shines

Making hay while the sun shines

24 November 2016

In 2015, JT Johnson & Sons, a fourth generation family business selling ruminant animal pellet feed and hay, celebrated its 20th anniversary with Japanese joint venture partner Asahi.

Making hay while the sun shines
Markets Today: Magic bus

Markets Today: Magic bus

23 November 2016

The USD continued to march a little higher, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up another 0.14%, gains mostly against the Euro, the Yen, and Sterling, the latter from some self-inflicted news.

Markets Today: Magic bus
Markets Today: OPEC on “The Edge of Glory”

Markets Today: OPEC on “The Edge of Glory”

22 November 2016

The S&P 500 hit a new high overnight, largely because of a spike in oil prices as Vladimir Putin steps in and says he expects OPEC to reach a deal next week, and agreeing to limit production in Russia.

Markets Today: OPEC on “The Edge of Glory”
Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same

Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same

21 November 2016

A key question this week, for the AUD at least, is whether local exporters will continue to stand aside expectant of still better levels to initiate longer dated hedges and/or whether local real money will now look to lift hedge ratios.

Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same
Service economy blooming

Service economy blooming

14 November 2016

While the 24-hour news cycle may talk down Australia’s transition from a commodity to service economy, the figures tell a different, and very positive, story.

Service economy blooming
Markets Today: Hate that I love you

Markets Today: Hate that I love you

11 November 2016

Prospects of greater US fiscal spending (infrastructure and tax cuts) under a Trump Presidency continue to buoy equity markets, while US bond markets are sold on the prospects that such policies are inflationary.

Markets Today: Hate that I love you
NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2016

8 November 2016

Business confidence has proven to be relatively resilient this year, but did moderate in October – falling 2 points to +4 index points (below the long-run average of +6).

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2016
Markets Today: House of fun

Markets Today: House of fun

4 November 2016

The focus for markets overnight was well and truly back on the UK with Sterling the stand-out performer overnight, trading this morning with a solid 1.24 handle, a full three big figures above where it opened the week.

Markets Today: House of fun
Markets Today: Down in Mexico

Markets Today: Down in Mexico

2 November 2016

US Equities are off, the VIX is up, the US dollar is lower, US Treasury yields are lower and the Mexican Peso/Japanese Yen cross (-2.5%) is still proving to the be the FX market’s weapon of choice when it comes to reflecting sentiment regarding the prospect of Donald Trump.

Markets Today: Down in Mexico
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016

28 October 2016

The progress of the season, which has been generally much wetter than average in eastern Australia but dryer in the west, continues to be the major consideration for Australian agriculture.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016
Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016

24 October 2016

With the RBA a keen inflation targetter, albeit within a flexible medium-term framework, each quarterly CPI reading provides an important update on current inflation trends and is a key input into the Bank’s forecasts.

Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016
Markets Today: O Canada!

Markets Today: O Canada!

20 October 2016

The revelation by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz following an as-expected unchanged monetary policy decision that the Bank ‘had actively discussed the possibility’ of further monetary policy easing at Wednesday’s meeting.

Markets Today: O Canada!
Markets Today: Cautious Man

Markets Today: Cautious Man

18 October 2016

Bruce Springsteen cautious man tells the story of a man that has doubts about his marriage and in a similar way markets have started the week in a tentative mood reflecting some concerns on the outlook.

Markets Today: Cautious Man
Markets Today: Midnight oil

Markets Today: Midnight oil

11 October 2016

Well it wasn't exactly midnight, but close enough. In a night that was expected to be relatively quiet given the US was celebrating Columbus Day, oil prices provided some fireworks after President Putin announced his support to a production freeze or even cut in oil output.

Markets Today: Midnight oil
Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?

Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?

26 September 2016

Not a huge amount to say about Friday’s offshore markets (unlike Saturday night’s AFL preliminary final), characterised by a give-back of some of the post-FOMC stock market euphoria, fractionally lower US bonds yields and a slightly stronger dollar.

Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?
The forward view – Australia: September 2016

The forward view – Australia: September 2016

15 September 2016

How one assesses Australia’s economic performance at present depends in large part on which industry / geography one looks at and whether the benchmark is in real or nominal terms.

The forward view – Australia: September 2016
Markets Today: Calm waters

Markets Today: Calm waters

15 September 2016

Mental preparations for another onslaught of selling bonds and equities offshore were put on the backburner with markets becalmed overnight.

Markets Today: Calm waters
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016

13 September 2016

The results from this month’s survey remain broadly consistent with our prior view of the economy and the near-term outlook. It points to a patchy, but sustained, improvement in the non-mining economy, with the major services sectors and construction leading the way.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016
Markets Today: Proud Mario

Markets Today: Proud Mario

9 September 2016

Three main developments overnight, a spike in oil prices, a somewhat more content ECB President, and a renewed AUD warning from RBA Governor Stevens in an AFR interview, the AUD in the wake of the interview pulling back from over 0.77 to 0.7642 this morning.

Markets Today: Proud Mario
Markets Today: 1999

Markets Today: 1999

12 August 2016

Almost 24 hours after yesterday’s decision by the RBNZ to lower the OCR by 25bps and the NZD USD is almost exactly where it was before the rate announcement.

Markets Today: 1999
In Focus: Pulses – July 2016

In Focus: Pulses – July 2016

26 July 2016

In this report we present a strong outlook for Australian pulses production, reflecting the exceedingly favourable season so far and greater plantings for some varieties.

In Focus: Pulses – July 2016
Rural Commodities Wrap:  June 16

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 16

30 June 2016

Our expectations for prices in the coming year are underpinned by our forecasts for a generally lower AUD, tracking in the high 60s range in late 2016 and 2017.

Rural Commodities Wrap:  June 16
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016

20 April 2016

Our forecasts point to Australian agricultural prices trending generally somewhat higher in AUD terms this year, despite challenging international conditions. However, the stronger AUD presents a risk to local prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016
NAB Copper Outlook – April 2016

NAB Copper Outlook – April 2016

15 April 2016

2016 is shaping up to be a crucial year for copper producers and copper markets. Its biggest consumer, China, is going through a period of slower economic growth, with structural transitions under way and a depreciating currency.

NAB Copper Outlook – April 2016
Oil Market Update – February 2016

Oil Market Update – February 2016

4 February 2016

Since early November, oil prices have resumed a clear downward trend, punctuated by episodes of sharp declines during early to mid- December and the first half of January.

Oil Market Update – February 2016
Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Australia

Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Australia

18 January 2016

The falls in global oil prices over the last year or so are fundamentally a reaction to oversupply in global markets – as US new oil supply comes on board, OPEC puts the squeeze on profitability of new sources of supply by refusing to cut production.

Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Australia
10 Themes for 2016

10 Themes for 2016

22 December 2015

The NAB Group Economics team identify 10 global and domestic themes which will have bearing on the economic and financial market outlook for 2016.

10 Themes for 2016
Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015

Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015

4 December 2015

Commodity markets remain under pressure, reflecting concerns over emerging market demand (especially from China), at a time when the supply of many commodities is on the incline. Anticipated policy tightening by the US Fed is also having an impact.

Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015

17 November 2015

Agricultural markets continue to react to the unfolding El Niño event, albeit in varying directions. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was stable in October.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015

20 October 2015

Agricultural prices continued to diverge in September. Most major grains fell as did fruit, vegetables and trade lamb (reflecting seasonal trends) however dairy prices strongly rebounded and sugar, beef and rice were also higher in AUD terms.

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015
Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights

9 October 2015

Earlier this week, Australia agreed to become part of a historic trade agreement, including countries that account for nearly 36% of global GDP and one quarter of global trade. This document provides a summary of the key measures, reported benefits and what we know so far about contentious issues.

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015

1 October 2015

Key Points Agricultural prices diverged in August and into September – protein and fibres generally rose while crops trended lower. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was flat in AUD terms in August (down 0.1%) and moderately lower in USD terms (down 2.0%). The AUD continued its downward trajectory in August, before sinking below 70 […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015
In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015

In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015

9 September 2015

Lamb prices follow a generally seasonal pattern, rising early in the year before declining in spring as spring lamb supply becomes available. Nonetheless, monthly average trade lamb prices have remained reasonably steady through July and into August this year and prices are now well ahead of the same time last year.

In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015

24 August 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index continues to rise in AUD terms (up 4.1% in July), supported by a lower dollar and higher beef, fruit, domestic wheat and sugar prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015
In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015

In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015

6 August 2015

NAB Agribusiness has revised its national wheat crop forecast up to 21.6 million tonnes for this season, with 23 million tonnes possible contingent on good spring rain in key wheat regions.

In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015
Oil Market Update – July 2015

Oil Market Update – July 2015

27 July 2015

After recording gravity-defying price gains in April and May that are largely denominated by correlation with the USD, oil price movements have turned bearish in June and July-to- date.

Oil Market Update – July 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015

21 July 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index was steady in June. The neutral result largely reflects higher grain and protein prices offset by sharply lower fruit, vegetable and to a lesser degree sugar prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015

2 July 2015

There were no signs of global growth accelerating in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and commodity prices have been mixed, partly in response to USD movements.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015
In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015

In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015

25 June 2015

Overall, we expect prices to generally rise in AUD terms for most of these commodities, with the exception of dairy and sugar, reflecting strong demand for beef in particular as well as the impact of a falling AUD.

In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015

15 June 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index rebounded in May – up 4.2% in AUD terms and 3.4% in USD terms. The improvement comes off the back of higher beef, lamb, wool, fruit, vegetables and pulses prices, offsetting further declines in dairy.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015
Oil Market Update – June 2015

Oil Market Update – June 2015

12 June 2015

Oil prices rebounded sharply in April and May, benefiting from a confluence of factors: a stall in the USD rally, signs of slowing inventory build-up in the US, as well as unabated geopolitical volatility in the Middle East marked by Yemen civil unrests.

Oil Market Update – June 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015

5 June 2015

April saw a renewed rise in beef and lamb prices, combined with stability across major grains, balanced against lower dairy, fruit and vegetable prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015
Gold Market Update – June 2015

Gold Market Update – June 2015

2 June 2015

In May, gold prices averaged at around US$1199 per ounce, largely unchanged compared to April. This reduction in volatility has largely been associated with contained macroeconomic volatility, as most major economies continue to be on a path of gradual recovery.

Gold Market Update – June 2015
Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015

2 June 2015

The changing composition of China’s growth model – towards services rather than heavy industry – means it is less commodity intensive than in the past.

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015
In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015

In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015

27 April 2015

Cattle prices began to ease in February and continued to fall until late March, before trending upward in early April in line with higher 90CL export prices to the US. Overall, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator fell 4.6% (AUD) month on month to 424.7 AUc/kg.

In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015

21 April 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, fell 1.7% (AUD) and 3.3% (USD) in March, led by lower beef, lamb, fruit, vegetable and sugar prices. Partial data for April to date points to a recovery in beef and lamb prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015

17 March 2015

The Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, gained 2.1% (AUD) and 0.5% (USD) in February on the back of higher fruit, dairy, fibre and pulses prices, which offset mixed performance across grains and protein.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015

16 February 2015

2015 brings an expanded Rural Commodities Index, which now includes 28 commodities, up from eight. The Index increased 5.6% in January in AUD terms, as sharply higher beef prices - and to a lesser extent higher lamb, dairy and vegetable prices - offset mixed performance across grains.

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015
Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015

13 February 2015

Based on adjusted World Steel data, global steel production rose by 3.5% in 2014 to total 1.64 billion tonnes. Prices for metallurgical coal have remained comparatively stable since March 2014. Spot prices for thermal coal have continued to drift lower.

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015

13 February 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. This has been reflected in lower prices for a number of industrial commodities. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015
A new approach to risk management

A new approach to risk management

13 February 2015

A new approach to risk management looks at the range of variables rather than average values. Cam Nicholson, a farm consultant with Nicon Rural Services, explains how this approach can help shape a more effective risk management strategy.

A new approach to risk management
Oil Market Update – February 2015

Oil Market Update – February 2015

6 February 2015

After the drastic falls towards the end of 2014, oil indexes started to exhibit some tentative signs of stabilisation since mid-January. Prices traded mainly around mid to high USD40s a barrel in the second half of the month, before breaking above USD50s in the first week of February.

Oil Market Update – February 2015
In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook

In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook

29 January 2015

Combined with strong industry fundamentals, Queensland saw significant rainfall during December 2014 and January 2015. In response, cattle prices have risen substantially as producers look to restock. However, despite this optimism, a number of challenges remain.

In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook
Emerging Commodities: Quinoa

Emerging Commodities: Quinoa

29 January 2015

Since 2008, global quinoa consumption has rapidly increased. In Australia, planting has been concentrated largely in Western Australia. While there are potential benefits from diversification for wheat producers, concerns remain around reliability of yield, weed control and marketing.

Emerging Commodities: Quinoa
Looking forward to a good year

Looking forward to a good year

23 January 2015

2015 could be a very good year for agribusiness, with easier access to Asian markets and favourable economic conditions. Five of NAB’s leading commentators take a close look at the opportunities and share their tips on how to make the most of them.

Looking forward to a good year
Bank of Canada move hits commodity currencies

Bank of Canada move hits commodity currencies

22 January 2015

The Bank of Canada is the latest Central Bank to deliver a shock; cutting its main policy rate to 0.75% from 1.0% in a move which none of the 22 analysts surveyed had anticipated.

Bank of Canada move hits commodity currencies
Oil prices take another lashing

Oil prices take another lashing

13 January 2015

Oil prices have again been the stand out story overnight with Brent now clearly below $50/bbl, having tested below $50 last week, and both WTI and Brent down 5-5½% overnight to below $46 for WTI and currently $46.66 for Brent.

Oil prices take another lashing
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014

25 November 2014

General Manager of NAB Agribusiness, Khan Horne says the falling Australian dollar is a real boost for agriculture, and combined with the recent announcement of the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement, conditions for 2015 are looking positive for agricultural exporters.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014
China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights

20 November 2014

The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) offers considerable potential for Australian agricultural and services firms as a result of their improved market access. Dairy, meat and horticulture stand to gain significantly while most resource exports will end up having duty free access.

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014

14 November 2014

Divergent economic conditions around the world are having a net negative impact on commodity prices. Chinese GDP growth slowed to its lowest pace since early 2009, while parts of the economy that are key to industrial commodities remain comparatively weak.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014
Pros and cons of grain storage versus sales

Pros and cons of grain storage versus sales

14 November 2014

While global grain prices are currently weaker than recent seasons, NAB's Greg Noonan says Australian growers are being paid a hefty premium. He's urging them to work through the pros and cons of marketing options when deciding whether to sell now or hold onto their grain.

Pros and cons of grain storage versus sales
Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014

10 November 2014

China’s third quarter National Accounts showed the economy grew by its slowest rate since March 2009. From a bulk commodity perspective, key parts of China’s economy remain comparatively weak. Industrial production has slowed in recent months.

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014

23 October 2014

The overall price outlook for rural commodities stabilised somewhat in September and early October as a falling AUD blunted the impact of lower global prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014
Agriculture infrastructure development in Australia

Agriculture infrastructure development in Australia

14 October 2014

Could Australia become “the food bowl of Asia”? NAB’s Frank Drum and Ben Matigian look at the infrastructure gap in Australian agriculture and the potential for strategic investment in the sector.

Agriculture infrastructure development in Australia
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014

9 October 2014

Recent global economic data and less favourable supply fundamentals have put downward pressure on many commodity prices. China, Europe and Japan were softer, while the U.S recovery appears to be gaining traction (US GDP grew at its fastest pace since 2011)…

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014
BeefEx told China’s shift to trade offers opportunity

BeefEx told China’s shift to trade offers opportunity

8 October 2014

Speaking at the BeefEx conference on the Gold Coast today, NAB’s Regional Head of Food and Agribusiness, Patrick Vizzone, explained that China is changing how it does business and the shift in thinking from self-sufficiency to trade provides a massive opportunity for beef exporters.

BeefEx told China’s shift to trade offers opportunity
Oil Market Update – September 2014

Oil Market Update – September 2014

2 October 2014

Since our last Quarterly Oil Market Update in June 2014, global crude oil prices have fallen sharply amid ample supply and weak demand combined with an increasing confidence that turmoil in Iraq is unlikely to disrupt supplies.

Oil Market Update – September 2014
China’s rising economy fuels demand for Australian exports

China’s rising economy fuels demand for Australian exports

1 October 2014

The Australia China Business Council (ACBC) promotes trade and investment between Australia and China. National President, Duncan Calder reflects on this critical partnership as China’s burgeoning economy fuels unprecedented demand for Australian supplies and services.

China’s rising economy fuels demand for Australian exports
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014

29 September 2014

The overall outlook for rural commodities deteriorated in August and September on account of a weak finish to winter rains in many areas combined with forecasts of abundant global grain supplies and lower prices for major agricultural commodities.

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014

16 September 2014

Global economic data sent divergent signals to commodity markets in August. China’s outlook gave less comfort in comparison to the better US data. There was more movement in financial markets during the month. Meanwhile further sanctions on Russia were put on hold.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014
Gold Market Update – August 2014

Gold Market Update – August 2014

12 September 2014

Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US, and some recent…

Gold Market Update – August 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014

11 September 2014

Having fallen for much of the year, wholesale gas prices in the United States and Europe have begun to edge up slightly since July. With the northern summer now coming to a close, mild weather should keep prices in check until the onset of colder winter conditions sees gas use increase.

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014
Leading the way for Australian agribusiness to China

Leading the way for Australian agribusiness to China

9 September 2014

China accounts for a staggering 43 per cent of the projected increase in global agrifood demand over the next 35 years, and Australian agribusinesses are positioning themselves now to seize the business opportunities.

Leading the way for Australian agribusiness to China
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014

29 August 2014

Australian beef prices are forecast to increase 3.5 per cent in 2014-15 on the back of a 4 per cent fall in production as producers rebuild herds, according to the latest NAB Agribusiness Rural Commodities Wrap.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

25 August 2014

As part of the current local reporting season last week, we heard that both the Gladstone and Australia Pacific LNG projects are on track and on budget.

Australian Markets Weekly
Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture

Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture

15 August 2014

The direct impact to Australian agricultural producers of the Russian Government’s embargo on most food imports is likely to be relatively small. However the secondary impacts are likely to be of greater concern for Australian producers.

Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014

11 August 2014

Commodity prices remained divergent in July, reflecting broadly positive but somewhat mixed economic data as well as flaring geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Crude prices fell in early July as concerns about a disruption to Iraqi oil supplies dissipated.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014

7 August 2014

Economic trends in China –the key consumer for bulk commodities –are mixed, with stabilising trends in the industrial sector (having slowed across Q1) in contrast to a slowing trend in the real estate sector (a major consumer of steel). Global steel production has continued to increase.

Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014
Base Metals Market Update – July 2014

Base Metals Market Update – July 2014

6 August 2014

On the demand side, industrial activity has improved in 2014, but recent indicators have been mixed. In China, the industrial sector appears to have stabilised following signs of moderation in recent months. Mini stimulus measures may have assisted the improvement.

Base Metals Market Update – July 2014
Developing a meaty supply chain across Asia

Developing a meaty supply chain across Asia

31 July 2014

One of the largest vertically integrated supply chain organisations in the world, Australian Country Choice (ACC) is looking to expand its supply of high quality meat into Asia. CEO David Foote discusses the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Developing a meaty supply chain across Asia
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014

28 July 2014

The 2014-15 Australian wheat season is off to a good start in most growing areas following autumn rain, and domestic prices are at a premium to international levels due to concerns about the impact of a dry spring.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014
Accurate statistics can help farmers to be more profitable

Accurate statistics can help farmers to be more profitable

15 July 2014

With information about prices, market trends and the supply chain, farmers can plan more effectively and run a more profitable business. Mick Keogh, Executive Director of the Australian Farm Institute (AFI), explains the importance of statistics and where to find the most useful ones.

Accurate statistics can help farmers to be more profitable
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014

7 July 2014

The relative price stability that characterised oil, in particular Brent, in the first half of 2014 has been shaken of late by unexpectedly severe sectarian turmoil in Iraq. However, with Iraqi exports largely unaffected, prices have now eased somewhat.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014
Oil Market Update – June 2014

Oil Market Update – June 2014

1 July 2014

The relative price stability that characterised Brent and Tapis in the first half of 2014 has been shaken of late by unexpectedly severe sectarian turmoil in Iraq. After Mosul fell on 10 June, Brent jumped 4% in a week and broke through $115 per barrel by 19 June.

Oil Market Update – June 2014
Opening milk prices – now is the time to review plans

Opening milk prices – now is the time to review plans

27 June 2014

Dairy farmers are encouraged to review budgets and timing for any capital expenditure plans off the back of opening dairy price forecasts. NAB’s Neil Findlay says these plus this financial year’s stronger finish should support the confidence that’s been returning to southern producers.

Opening milk prices – now is the time to review plans
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014

24 June 2014

Supported by still-low bond yields and more positive economic data from China and the US, global equity markets maintained their upward trend in May to close higher in general. However, commodities markets were more mixed.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014
Large scale greenfield agri-business development

Large scale greenfield agri-business development

13 June 2014

The Australian project finance market is widely considered a world leader when it comes to assessing the financing of greenfield development risk. Michael Clarke looks at how mining/resource project financing may be a helpful paradigm for financing large-scale greenfield agri developments.

Large scale greenfield agri-business development
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014

12 June 2014

Bulk commodity markets recorded another relatively weak month –with iron ore prices continuing to ease (falling below US$100 a tonne), thermal coal prices remaining weak, while metallurgical coal eased higher –away from particularly low levels.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014
Gold Market Update – May 2014

Gold Market Update – May 2014

11 June 2014

Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US.

Gold Market Update – May 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – May 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2014

11 June 2014

In the past month, US natural gas prices moderated slightly on milder weather, but remained around 13% more than the same time last year on extremely low inventories. In contrast, the slide in European gas prices continued in May on low heating demand.

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2014
Finding new ways for dryland farmers to stay profitable

Finding new ways for dryland farmers to stay profitable

6 June 2014

Ninety three percent of Australia’s annual grain crop is grown under dryland conditions. Southern Panel Chair of the Grains Research and Development Corporation, explains how national and international research is helping farmers in this challenging environment.

Finding new ways for dryland farmers to stay profitable
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014

26 May 2014

There are signs of stabilisation in the growth in the US and China: the US Fed proceeded with another US$10 billion cut in their monthly quantitative easing program to US$45 billion, while Chinese industrial activity gained some support from a series of targeted stimulus policies.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

12 May 2014

Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014

7 May 2014

Trends for bulk commodity prices were mixed in April, with relative stability (at very weak levels) for both thermal and metallurgical coal, while iron ore briefly recovered from the low levels in March, before retreating again.

Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

7 May 2014

Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014

6 May 2014

Globally, commodity markets experienced heightened volatility in March, with the concerns of a slowdown in China and its first domestic bond default triggering some investor risk aversion.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014
China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses

China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses

5 May 2014

Patrick Vizzone, Regional Head of Food & Agribusiness, Asia, Institutional Banking reflects on how the outcomes of last November’s Third Plenary Session of China’s Communist Party’s Central Committee may shape the Australian agriculture sector.

China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses
A fresh look at Australia in the Asian Century

A fresh look at Australia in the Asian Century

22 April 2014

Australia’s role in securing the food, water and supply chains of Asia will be dependent on our ability to embrace change and innovation. Dr. Ken Henry looks at the opportunities that exist for Australian businesses in the Asian century.

A fresh look at Australia in the Asian Century
Base Metals Market Update – March 2014

Base Metals Market Update – March 2014

7 April 2014

Prices for most industrial metals have moved lower in response to growth concerns in China and uncertainty over the unwinding of commodity financing deals. However, supply side events are supporting prices for Nickel in particular.

Base Metals Market Update – March 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014

3 April 2014

Economic data was mixed over the past month, but the impact from severe weather on advanced economies appears to be abating. Partial indicators suggest China’s economy has continued to slow. US tapered QE again and markets remain volatile as they try to discern Fed direction.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014
Oil Market Update – March 2014

Oil Market Update – March 2014

3 April 2014

Since mid-January, several idiosyncratic factors, such as the ramping up of takeaway capacity by the Keystone XL Pipeline, better US economic data and unseasonably cold weather, have propped West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices relative to Tapis and Brent.

Oil Market Update – March 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014

26 March 2014

Global equity and commodity markets exhibited increased volatility in the past month, caused by heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, adverse weather events in the US and news of a slowing Chinese economy. December quarter GDP result for Australia was close to trend.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – February 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – February 2014

6 March 2014

In the past few months, US natural gas prices have staged some gravity defying movements, fuelled by unusually strong heating demand from the most extreme winter conditions affecting the US in about a quarter of the century.

Natural Gas Market Update – February 2014
Gold Market Update – February 2014

Gold Market Update – February 2014

6 March 2014

The average price of gold rose by around 1½% in January and has lifted a further 4½% in February to date, the first consecutive rise since late 2012. Prices have been volatile of late, but are currently trading at around $1,330 per ounce.

Gold Market Update – February 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2014

25 February 2014

Australia is on track to be the third largest exporter of raw cotton in the world in 2013-14, with forecasts of just under one million tonnes according to the latest Rural Commodities Wrap. The AUD is forecast to track lower which should provide further benefits to exporters.

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014

6 February 2014

Bulk commodity prices softened in January, driven by the end of the restocking phase and seasonally weak steel production - which contributed to weaker demand trends for coal and iron ore. Expanding rail freight capacity in China could impact the country’s demand for seaborne coal

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014
The talk of the town: NAB business wrap

The talk of the town: NAB business wrap

23 January 2014

There’s been a lot for Aussie businesses to talk about so far in 2014 - from weather predictions to our reading habits. Here’s a selection of recent business insights to help you uncover the opportunities across all business sectors in 2014.

The talk of the town: NAB business wrap
Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2014

17 January 2014

The global economy capped off 2013 on a strong note, with monthly measures of global industrial output and trade indicators picking up to finally be consistent with the more buoyant message that the advanced economy business surveys have been signalling since late 2012.

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2014
Pedal to the metal

Pedal to the metal

15 January 2014

The limp performance of metals and bulk commodities over the past couple of years has resembled a unicycle rather than the superbike of previous years. According to Simon Wright of The Economist, the 2014 outlook for demand is rosier and commodity prices should start climbing once again.

Pedal to the metal
Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013

Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013

9 January 2014

Global upturn continues with advanced economies seeing faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.

Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013
Digging deeper

Digging deeper

9 January 2014

Some of the world’s fastest-growing economies in 2014 will be in Africa. Since 2001, Africa’s GDP has expanded more quickly each year than the global average. In the past decade, only the block of developing Asian economies, led by China, has grown faster than Africa.

Digging deeper
New Year: a time to refresh and make the most of opportunities

New Year: a time to refresh and make the most of opportunities

6 January 2014

New Year is the perfect time to be considering and reviewing your strategies for the year and putting your plans in place to make the most of opportunities. Our message to farmers is that if they’re ready for more in 2014, we’re here and ready for them.

New Year: a time to refresh and make the most of opportunities
Mining and metals firms and the slowing of the super cycle

Mining and metals firms and the slowing of the super cycle

30 December 2013

Companies in the industrial raw materials sector are facing a new era. For years, miners of resources such as iron ore, base metals and coal enjoyed a boom driven by incredible demand from China and other emerging markets that were urbanising and investing heavily in infrastructure.

Mining and metals firms and the slowing of the super cycle
Oil Market Update – November 2013

Oil Market Update – November 2013

9 December 2013

Average oil prices fell for the second consecutive month in November. In addition to the bearish sentiment in the crude oil futures market, oil prices have generally returned to be more aligned with the reality of fundamentals where ample supplies, have served to weigh on prices.

Oil Market Update – November 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013

9 December 2013

November’s Third Plenum unveiled a wide ranging reform agenda from China’s Government. Proposed deregulation would increase free market influence and could support a stronger medium term growth profile for the economy.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013
Base Metals Market Update – November 2013

Base Metals Market Update – November 2013

3 December 2013

Metals prices remain well below peaks recorded earlier in the year but have been relatively range bound, fluctuating with the ebbs and flows of economic news. As usual, news relating to US Fed policy and the Chinese economy has been particularly relevant.

Base Metals Market Update – November 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013

15 November 2013

Global growth remains at a moderate sub-trend pace and it’s expected to pick up to slightly below trend in 2014. However, NAB business conditions remain weak and forward indicators deteriorated slightly. There are still no signs of a recovery in non-mining investment.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013
Wheat’s season of contrast

Wheat’s season of contrast

11 November 2013

It’s a season of stark contrast for Aussie wheat growers, with those in the west and south set for a bumper season while those in the east are doing it tough. International factors are also placing downward pressure on prices, with Canada producing one of its biggest wheat crops on record.

Wheat’s season of contrast
Natural Gas Market Update – October 2013

Natural Gas Market Update – October 2013

8 November 2013

US natural gas prices showed significant volatility in the lead-up to the US government shutdown, but trended higher in September and October overall in anticipation of winter heating demand. British natural gas prices also tracked higher in the past two months.

Natural Gas Market Update – October 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013

8 November 2013

In October, indicators of global economic activity were mixed, casting some doubt over signs of recovery in the advanced economies. The upturn is still under way, but the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013
Gold Market Update – October 2013

Gold Market Update – October 2013

1 November 2013

The average price of gold eased by around 2½% in October, though the daily spot price generally strengthened over the second half of the month and is currently trading at around $1,340 per ounce. Gold is set to record its first annual price decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – October 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2013

18 October 2013

Global bond yields fell in September from the US Fed surprise decision not to initiate the tapering of its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, commodity markets weakened further. The strong pace in the economic recovery in big advanced economies evident in the first half of the year

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013

16 October 2013

In September, overall demand for commodities gained support from progress in the global economic recovery. Positive data from major economies is adding to confidence that the recovery in the big advanced economies is currently on track.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013

20 September 2013

Global financial markets rallied strongly when US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) defied market expectations of a modest tapering and decided to leave retain the status quo on the pace of asset purchases.

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013
State Economic Update – September 2013

State Economic Update – September 2013

16 September 2013

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey showed a marginal deterioration in overall business conditions in the June quarter, with the level remaining close to four year lows. All states experienced difficult conditions in the quarter.

State Economic Update – September 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013

4 September 2013

More positive news on the major economies has provided a slight boost to most commodity prices in August, with the long awaited rotation of global growth towards the big advanced economies seemingly underway. Global manufacturing activity also appears to have gained momentum.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013
Oil Market Update – August 2013

Oil Market Update – August 2013

2 September 2013

Oil prices strengthened in July, reflecting heightened concerns over the security of supply with the violent unrest in Egypt, an uptick in Asian crude demand due to improved margins, as well as ramped up refinery runs and tight supply.

Oil Market Update – August 2013
Base Metals Market Update – August 2013

Base Metals Market Update – August 2013

27 August 2013

Metals prices remain well below peaks recorded earlier in the year but have seen some support recently from more upbeat economic data, particularly from the large advanced economies, although China is showing early signs of stabilising as well.

Base Metals Market Update – August 2013
Gold Market Update – August 2013

Gold Market Update – August 2013

27 August 2013

The price of gold fell by a notable 4.3% in July, but has stabilised more recently, recovering by a modest 2.8% over August to date. Spot gold is currently around $1,380 an ounce. The price of gold will certainly record its first annual decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – August 2013
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2013

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2013

26 August 2013

Post-farmgate agribusiness conditions rebounded in the June quarter to be mildly positive but confidence fell marginally. Customer demand remains the single most significant constraint to businesses’ future profitability. Expectations for capex plans surged to the highest in two years.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013

19 August 2013

Global equity markets recovered earlier losses as it became clear that central banks would not rapidly turn off their monetary easing, although we still expect the US Federal Reserve to start tapering in the coming few weeks.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013

19 July 2013

Global equity markets have come under downward pressure, but the latest data on activity is slightly more positive. Business sentiment about current conditions has picked up in advanced economies and growth in global industrial output is faster.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013

5 July 2013

Global financial markets have taken a dive at the suggestions of the US Federal Reserve scaling back quantitative easing soon and the drying up of new stimulus initiatives by the Japanese government.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013

4 July 2013

Overall, the heightened volatility in global financial markets associated with central bank decisions in the US and China has weighed on commodity prices. The slowdown in the Chinese economy is also gaining traction in markets and further weakens demand prospects.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013
Gold Market Update – June 2013

Gold Market Update – June 2013

2 July 2013

Expectations for the US Federal Reserve to begin tapering its $85 billion in monthly debt buying this year, a rising US dollar and a slowing Chinese economy have sent ripples through the gold market. The price of gold is now heading for its first annual decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – June 2013
Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013

2 July 2013

Bulk commodity prices remain under pressure from mounting concerns over the China growth outlook. Nevertheless, iron ore is receiving some support from tentative restocking activity, while a margin squeeze in the coal market could suggest that prices are approaching their bottom.

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013
World mill consumption of cotton climbs

World mill consumption of cotton climbs

14 June 2013

David Brett, NAB's Head of Agribusiness for Northern Australia, says it’s been a solid year for Australia's 1,500 cotton farms.Driven by a more positive global economic outlook, Australia looks set to export a record 1.1 million tonnes of cotton this financial year.

World mill consumption of cotton climbs
Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013

12 June 2013

Economic activity in China appears to have slowed further during the month of May, although the moderation in growth continues to occur at a gradual pace - keeping concerns of a hard-landing at bay. Nevertheless, hopes of a meaningful acceleration in growth this year have faded.

Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013
Natural Gas Market Update – May 2013

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2013

4 June 2013

US natural gas prices trend higher on rising exporting prospects and forecasted warmer-than-average temperatures in the upcoming summer. British natural gas prices have returned to more normal levels as supply pressures ameliorate from restored Qatari deliveries and Norwegian production.

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013

4 June 2013

Commodity markets have been mixed but overall sentiment remains bearish reflecting soft economic data in most regions. However, signs of improvement in the US economy could help to support commodity demand, but the effect on market expectations for Fed stimulus will create headwinds.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013

24 May 2013

With the exception of dairy, the prices of most other agricultural commodities have headed south this month. In April, the Rural Commodity Index rose marginally USD terms by 0.8% while fell by 2% in AUD terms. This month, lamb is our commodity in focus.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013
Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector

Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector

15 May 2013

This year’s budget contains a number of negatives for the resources sector. NAB’s Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, looks at where the government has targeted it’s efforts including impacts to exploration and many mining and energy programs.

Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector
Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013

14 May 2013

Chinese partial economic indicators were largely in line with expectations in April. However, we are yet to see signs that real activity is significantly picking up. We continue to expect growth of 8% in 2013, although risks remain skewed to the downside.

Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013
Gold Market Update – April 2013

Gold Market Update – April 2013

6 May 2013

The gold price fell by 6.6% over April. Recent gold demand appears to have fallen sharply on news of soft US inflation, slowing Chinese growth as well as fears that highly indebted European countries like Cyprus may resort to selling gold reserves.

Gold Market Update – April 2013
Base Metals Market Update – April 2013

Base Metals Market Update – April 2013

6 May 2013

The improvement in metals prices seen over the second half of 2012 has been completely unwound, largely due to a lack of physical demand and market concerns over the outlook for demand. In aggregate, base metal prices were 5% lower over March and down more than 10% over the year.

Base Metals Market Update – April 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013

24 April 2013

Global financial markets are digesting latest Euro-zone crisis (Cyprus) where bank depositors are being forced to take losses. Pre-crisis global financial markets had been on a strong rally, especially against the background of still sluggish economic performance in the…

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013

10 April 2013

Commodity markets have turned bearish again following softer than expected economic data outcomes and concerns over a government crack down on Chinese real estate. The Cyprus banking crisis has also dampened confidence, while the terms of the EU bailout, and subsequent rhetoric has …

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013
Oil Market Update – March 2013

Oil Market Update – March 2013

9 April 2013

Oil prices weaken in March, reflecting European crisis fears following Cyprus deal, a recovery in North Sea oil production and a return of South Sudan oil exports. Most notable declines were recorded for Brent and Tapis oil. Global oil demand forecasts for 2013 revised down reflecting …

Oil Market Update – March 2013
Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013

Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013

9 April 2013

The recent rally in bulk commodity prices has stalled with both coal and iron ore prices giving back some of their recent gains; average monthly prices declined in March. Global steel production has continued to grow at a good pace in recent months, driven by increasing Chinese …

Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013
State Economic Update – March 2013

State Economic Update – March 2013

20 March 2013

The disparity between business conditions that became increasingly pronounced following the GFC has narrowed over recent quarters; however, the convergence of conditions readings largely reflects a weakening in previously stronger performing industries and regions, suggesting…

State Economic Update – March 2013
NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?

NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?

12 March 2013

The recent capex and exploration expectations data suggest that mining investment may be approaching a turning point. A decline is inevitable: the question is when and how fast. On the basis of past engineering construction commencements, there are reasons to believe …

NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2013

8 March 2013

Global and domestic financial markets have continued to improve as confidence in the global economic outlook firms. Strong underlying fundamentals of the US economy and signs of recovery in China have encouraged a more bullish market outlook. Commodity markets are less buoyant.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2013
Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013

5 March 2013

Once again, movements in commodity prices have been dominated by events in China and growing speculation over the timed withdrawal of QE stimulus by the US Fed. With market participants on the sidelines throughout most of February due to many of the Asian economies celebrating the …

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013
Agribusiness View – February 2013

Agribusiness View – February 2013

28 February 2013

This month in Agribusiness View, we have an in-depth talk with food producer Maggie Beer, hear about Asia’s growing demand for milk and dairy products, and learn how grain growers can manage their risk. We also give you a new view on women in the agricultural industry.

Agribusiness View – February 2013
NAB tips for budgeting and grain marketing for 2013

NAB tips for budgeting and grain marketing for 2013

18 February 2013

Grain growers who have done their homework will usually get opportunities through the year to lock in price spikes above $300 per tonne and hopefully healthy margins. NAB’s Director of Commodities, Business Markets believes preparation is the key aspect of managing risk for grain growers

NAB tips for budgeting and grain marketing for 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013

1 February 2013

Financial and commodity markets have generally strengthened recently, following the last minute agreement to hold off the US fiscal cliff. Signs of strengthening in China’s manufacturing sector has also provided some confidence about the outlook for global growth.

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012

12 December 2012

The Australian economy appears to have stumbled into the December quarter. For agricultural commodities, markets have been fairly mixed over the past month. Grains prices have softened a little on expected demand rationing while sugar and cotton remain subdued.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012
China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia

China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia

21 November 2012

China’s meteoric rise to becoming one of the world’s economic superpowers has redefined global economic growth, specifically, the fundamental drivers of commodity markets. China’s advancement has had significant ramifications for commodity exporting economies, including Australia.

China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia
Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012

Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012

21 November 2012

The post farm gate agribusiness conditions index posted a decent turnaround following a very weak June quarter. Driving the result was an increase across the three key components that make up the index, with the sharpest turnaround being trading conditions.

Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012
Commodity watch

Commodity watch

13 November 2012

Australian farmers are experiencing price volatility, so how can hedging help them take advantage of boosted demand for Australian exports following the US drought? NAB’s Head of Agribusiness for Business Markets, Rod Fraser, explains.

Commodity watch
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012

13 November 2012

China’s strong import program is one of several global factors colliding to underpin wheat prices through the end of the year and into 2013, according to the latest Rural Commodities Wrap, which this month focuses on wheat. NAB estimates the crop will come in at 20.6 million tonnes

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012
Gold Market Update – October 2012

Gold Market Update – October 2012

6 November 2012

The gold price rose by a spectacular 7 per cent over September. Some of the strength has subsequently been unwound, with the gold price easing to around US$1,710 per ounce in early November. We have lifted our forecasts a little

Gold Market Update – October 2012
Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012

5 November 2012

Bulk commodity prices have been mixed recently with coal prices generally stabilising around recent lows, while iron ore prices have performed surprisingly well, supported by recent signs of improvement in the Chinese economy. Growth in global crude steel production remains subdued

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012
Base Metals Market Update – October 2012

Base Metals Market Update – October 2012

30 October 2012

Metals prices received a significant boost over September, following a suite of policy stimulus announcements by some of the major central banks. In aggregate, base metal prices rose by 10 per cent over September but were 7 per cent lower than levels one year earlier.

Base Metals Market Update – October 2012
Oil Market Update – October 2012

Oil Market Update – October 2012

30 October 2012

Oil prices weaken in October but remain quite high. Attention now shifting towards the Asian economies, which have surprised markets on the downside in recent months. Near-term forecasts lifted on geo-political risk, 2013 forecasts left unchanged.

Oil Market Update – October 2012
Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012

11 October 2012

Over September, minerals and energy prices have been assisted higher by central bank monetary easing and various other stimulus measures taken by policy makers around the world. Bad news has become good, and good news has become ‘bad’ for markets.

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012
Corporate Finance Insights – May 2012

Corporate Finance Insights – May 2012

11 September 2012

NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression.  The report is published four times a year and explores topical issues facing Australian Corporates. Welcome to the May 2012 edition of Corporate Finance Insights. In this […]

Corporate Finance Insights – May 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012

24 August 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global growth weighed down by weakness in big developed economies, emerging markets also slowing Australian farm sector mixed but likely to benefit from US drought, which could add around $6 billion in export incomes to the […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012
Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012

3 August 2012

US natural gas lift on winding down inventories (after seasonal adjustment), and increased consumption due to shift away from coal to gas in electricity generation for summer European prices weaken as increased Russian supplies, soft demand and reduced arbitrage opportunities to Asia see more LNG enter European natural gas market Prices in Asia Pacific surge […]

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012
Gold market update – August 2012

Gold market update – August 2012

3 August 2012

London 2012 Olympics upon us but the boost to gold demand from Australian athletes still quite limited. The gold price eased by 0.4 per cent over July, and following a rally late last week, has fallen back to around US$1,590 per ounce. It is difficult to know what direction the gold price will take in […]

Gold market update – August 2012
Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012

Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012

3 August 2012

Bulk commodity prices have fallen noticeably in response to poor demand for steel and electricity, and improving supplies of the commodities. Both coal and iron ore prices have fallen to around their lowest levels since late 2009, consistent with Chinese GDP growth which slowed to its lowest rate in over three years in the June […]

Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012
Base Metals Market Update – June 2012

Base Metals Market Update – June 2012

21 June 2012

In aggregate, base metal prices fell by 4 per cent over May and were 19 per cent lower than levels one year earlier. Currently, prices for most base metals are below their May averages. Metals prices have been volatile as a result of events in Europe and growth concerns in China and the US. Relief […]

Base Metals Market Update – June 2012
Oil Market Update

Oil Market Update

21 June 2012

Oil prices continue to soften on ongoing concerns surrounding the Euro-zone, Spanish bond yields rising above 7 per cent and softening US and Chinese economic activity Oil price forecasts revised down, reflecting ongoing market concerns surrounding the Euro-zone, weaker growth forecasts for the US and China and easing supply-side concerns Global crude oil market loosening […]

Oil Market Update
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012

1 June 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global agricultural commodity prices come under pressure as European concerns sees heightened financial market volatility Australian poultry industry on firm footing, buoyed by rising productivity and solid growth in per capita consumption Decline in domestic pig meat […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012

20 April 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global agricultural commodity prices under pressure from resumption of ‘risk-off’ attitude pervading financial markets Australian wheat crop of 26.1 million tonnes predicted on good subsoil moisture, but acreage lost to canola Wheat prices […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012

15 February 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Agricultural commodity prices easing further on increased production, AUD impact on livestock markets Sluggish global consumption growth, increased competition from South America and South Africa impacting Australian wine exports Domestically, Australian wines under increasing pressure from rising import […]

Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012

15 January 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month.  Agricultural commodities hit record levels in 2011, to ease in 2012 on massive production response. But considerable risk remains based on weather and Euro-zone debt crisis. Prices for agricultural commodities managed to pick up significantly in 2011, […]

Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011

15 December 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Agricultural commodities weakening on Euro sovereign debt crisis, rising production prospects Wool prices hit by weakening demand prospects, but still relatively high Australian wool production to rise 3.1 per cent in 2011-12 but exports to remain […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011

15 September 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month.  • Commodity prices weaken on risk-off attitude hitting global markets, but fundamentals still point to solid prices for agricultural commodities • Sugar prices set to weaken as solid crops in India, EU and Russia come online […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011

15 August 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Australian wheat crop downgraded to 21.8 million on dryness in northern NSW, Queensland Beef prices to fall in near term on weakness in Japan, US and high AUD but recover in medium term on tight global […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011