Economic commentary

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

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Insights, Trends & Case Studies

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q4 2023

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q4 2023

22 January 2024

The NAB Consumer Stress Index rose for the fifth straight quarter, the highest since Q1 2020 and above the survey average for the first time in almost 4 years.

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q4 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

21 December 2023

There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

Insight

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

29 November 2023

The holiday season shopping flurry can offer some small businesses the opportunity to prosper… and others a time to take stock for the new year. Both call for careful preparation – particularly in the current environment. NAB Executive Small Business Ana Marinkovic shares her top tips.

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

Article

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

24 November 2023

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

13 November 2023

US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2023

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2023

27 October 2023

Household financial stress eases after rising for the past 6 quarters as Australians grow more accustomed to a number of ongoing pressures, but financial concerns are still climbing among lower income earners.

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2023

Insight

FX Market Update – 25th October 2023

FX Market Update – 25th October 2023

25 October 2023

The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.

FX Market Update – 25th October 2023

Webinar

Ana Marinkovic: Why it pays to go green

Ana Marinkovic: Why it pays to go green

24 October 2023

Understandably, the last thing small businesses need is another overhead. But what if it saved you money in the long term – a lot of money? NAB Executive Small Business Ana Marinkovic explains the financial upside of reduced carbon emissions.

Ana Marinkovic: Why it pays to go green

Article

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

19 October 2023

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

Insight

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

22 September 2023

Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

Article

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

17 August 2023

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

20 July 2023

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

22 June 2023

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

Insight

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

13 June 2023

The national measure of dwelling values recorded a third consecutive rise last month, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2%. After finding a floor in February, dwelling values nationally have increased 2.3% in the three months to May, following a 9.2% drop.

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

18 May 2023

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

20 April 2023

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

23 February 2023

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

Insight

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

8 February 2023

Tapas Strickland, Head of Markets Economics NAB, James Sheehan, Head of Business Markets NSW/ACT, and Tracy Ferguson State Director Business Markets NSW discuss the February 2023 RBA meeting and outlook, inflation, the labour market, and potential risks ahead.    

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

16 December 2022

Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

Insight

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

14 December 2022

Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

11 November 2022

We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

Insight

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

9 November 2022

Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

14 October 2022

Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

Insight

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

12 October 2022

National housing market sentiment fell to below survey average levels in Q3 2022 as the downturn in the national housing market gathered speed and spread wider. Solid growth in rental markets however continued to provide some support.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

16 September 2022

We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

10 September 2022

Australian agricultural commodity prices have continued to unwind, posting a second month of lower prices as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index. This comes against a backdrop of continued excellent seasonal conditions, but elevated input costs and rapidly rising interest rates to control global inflation.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

Report

Australian housing market update: September 2022

Australian housing market update: September 2022

9 September 2022

The housing downturn accelerated through August, as falling values became more widespread, taking CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index into a fourth consecutive month of decline. The national index was down -1.6% over the month, which was the largest month-on-month decline since 1983.

Australian housing market update: September 2022

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

12 August 2022

We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

15 July 2022

Globally, major central banks continue to tighten monetary policy in response to the highest inflation in decades, thereby straining household finances and leading to falls in asset prices. For Australia, we have not changed our view on the underlying trajectory for the economy but see greater risk for household consumption on the back of higher rates and inflation.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2022

28 June 2022

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen further gains in most agricultural commodity prices, tentative signs of a stabilisation in fertiliser prices, combined with a lower AUD and a weakening global growth outlook.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2022

Report

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q2 2022

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q2 2022

23 June 2022

Consumer stress up again due to cost of living, but job pressures hit a 4-year low. Purchasing expectations fall sharply, particularly for travel.

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q2 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

17 June 2022

Global inflation remains high and showing no signs of easing, placing pressure on household finances. For Australia, we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

Insight

NAB Supply Chain Insights Special Report

NAB Supply Chain Insights Special Report

2 June 2022

Report overview The COVID pandemic has caused significant challenges for supply chains across the globe, and Australian SMEs have not been immune. For this inaugural NAB Supply Chain Insights Special Report, a survey of around 760 SMEs were asked about the impact on their business of supply chain disruptions, how they were addressing these issues […]

NAB Supply Chain Insights Special Report

Report

Land of Opportunity

Land of Opportunity

25 May 2022

Download NAB’s Regional & Agribusiness Horizons Report for compelling new insights into regional and rural Australia.

Land of Opportunity

Article

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q1 2022

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q1 2022

19 May 2022

Consumer stress rises as concerns over cost of living hit a 2-year high. But, ahead of the federal election & with very low unemployment, stress relating to government policy & job security eased.

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q1 2022

Insight

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q1 2022

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q1 2022

18 May 2022

Australia’s wellbeing falls, but the gap by income now at its narrowest in almost 3 years. Wellbeing diverging across the country, highest in TAS & lowest in WA. Home ownership a significant differentiator. Household financial stress up slightly but falling for low income earners & rising sharply for those on higher incomes. The share of Australians experiencing some form of financial hardship now at a survey low.

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q1 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2022

17 May 2022

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen three key changes, namely more rain forecast, ongoing inflationary pressures making central banks more hawkish and a materially weaker global economic outlook.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2022

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

13 May 2022

We now expect the global economy to grow by around 3.4% in 2022 and 2023. For Australia, we continue to be optimistic on the economy expecting above-trend growth this year and ongoing strength in the labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

Insight

Australian housing market update: May 2022

Australian housing market update: May 2022

10 May 2022

Housing values are still rising at the national level, however, with a rise of just 0.6% over the month, April’s growth rate was the lowest reading since October 2020.

Australian housing market update: May 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

14 April 2022

The global economic outlook remains clouded by numerous factors, however, we expect that the global economy will grow by 3.7% in 2022 and then slow to a trend- like 3.5% in 2023. For Australia, GDP is expected to grow by a strong 3.4% this year – supported by healthy growth in consumption and ongoing gains in business investment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022

13 April 2022

March has seen smoother retail prospects when compared to the very choppy conditions across January and February, with our forecast pointing to moderate growth in the month.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

11 March 2022

Globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a significant spike in energy prices – reflecting the importance of Russia in the production and export of oil, natural gas and coal, in combination with limited additional supply elsewhere. Locally, the war in Europe poses risks on both the activity and nominal sides of the economy, uncertainty is now highly elevated – but the central-case for Australia’s economy largely remains strong.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

Insight

Property Insights Webinar

Property Insights Webinar

15 February 2022

Peter Loukas, Property Executive NAB presents his insights on the residential property survey.

Property Insights Webinar

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

14 February 2022

Globally the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has spread rapidly; the sheer number of cases is disrupting economic activity as infected workers are forced to isolate. In Australia, we have revised up the expected rebound in Q4 GDP, but pulled down Q1 2022 as the spread of omicron weighs on the economy through both consumer caution as well as disruption to business.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

Insight

NAB Behavioural Insights – Great Resignation

NAB Behavioural Insights – Great Resignation

10 February 2022

Over 1 in 5 Australians have changed jobs in the past year. Almost 1 in 4 are considering it, with many planning to move to a new role in a new industry or take a career break.

NAB Behavioural Insights – Great Resignation

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

17 December 2021

For Australia the Q3 national accounts showed a smaller hit to activity than we had expected but we continue to see a very strong snap back in activity in Q4. Globally, advanced economy growth was robust in Q3, and a similar outcome is expected in Q4 albeit with a shift in the source of growth away from Europe towards the US and Japan.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

12 November 2021

We have trimmed our global economic forecasts this month to 5.7% for 2021, however should this occur, it would still be the strongest rate of growth since 1973. For Australia, our internal data and NAB Monthly Business Survey indicate the economy is again rebounding strongly as NSW and Vic reopen following the extended lockdowns through mid-2021.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021

10 November 2021

Retail conditions in lockdown-affected areas have clearly been challenging for many businesses, but with reopening here, consumers are bouncing back and spending has returned.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021

Insight

Australian housing market update: November 2021

Australian housing market update: November 2021

4 November 2021

Australian housing values rose 1.5% last month, a similar result to August and September. However, the trend shows the market is continuing to slowly lose momentum since moving through a peak monthly rate of growth in March 2021, when values were up 2.8%.

Australian housing market update: November 2021

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

21 October 2021

The good news just keeps rolling on for Australian agriculture, with already very good seasonal conditions boosted by the increasing possibility of a La Nina event, combined with ongoing commodity price strength.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

15 October 2021

We have revised our global economic forecasts lower – to 5.9% for 2021. For Australia, a very sharp fall in activity in Q3 is locked in however we continue to expect a solid rebound in Q4 , and strong growth continuing into early 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

Insight

Australian housing market update: October 2021

Australian housing market update: October 2021

11 October 2021

Australian housing values rose 17.6% higher over the first nine months of the year and 20.3% higher over the past 12 months. The annual growth rate is now tracking at the fastest pace since the year ending June 1989.

Australian housing market update: October 2021

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

23 September 2021

COVID 19 continues to be the main driver of growth both in the recovery phase and as the Delta variant spreads. With vaccines looking promising 2021 looks like being a bounce back year.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

17 September 2021

COVID 19 remains the main risk to the global economic outlook, while in Australia the key risks to our forecasts remain the timing and pace of the easing in restrictions, and further out, the underlying pace of growth as the impact of policy measures fades.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

Insight

AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased

AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased

31 August 2021

In this Weekly we argue why we think activity should again rebound sharply once lockdown restrictions are eased. Key to how sharply activity can rebound is will people feel confident to resume activity and have household and business balance sheets been sufficiently insulated from recent outbreaks?

AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased
NAB Australian Financial Wellbeing Survey Q2 2021

NAB Australian Financial Wellbeing Survey Q2 2021

23 August 2021

Household financial stress up on rising concerns over monthly household expenses. There's also a growing economic divide between low & high-income earners, jobless & employed, and fewer Australians believe now is a good time to buy a home.

NAB Australian Financial Wellbeing Survey Q2 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

13 August 2021

Due to lockdowns, we expect to see a large hit to activity in Australia in Q3. Our global growth forecast for 2021 is marginally weaker this month, 6.2% compared with 6.3% previously.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

Insight

AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic

AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic

27 July 2021

The Sydney lockdown is in its fifth week and looks set to be extended well beyond July 30. Given the high transmission rates of the delta variant, snap lockdowns are likely to remain a ‘tool of first resort’ in controlling the virus until vaccination rates lift.

AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

16 July 2021

COVID-19 remains the most significant risk for our global outlook. While in Australia, the current virus outbreak in NSW and associated lockdowns/border closures highlights the uncertainty around economic forecasting at present.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

Insight

AMW: What to look out for in Australian inflation

AMW: What to look out for in Australian inflation

6 July 2021

Q2 CPI is just under four weeks away (on Wednesday July 28). In this week’s Weekly we have a first look at what CPI may print and highlight why we believe Core CPI is likely to remain subdued despite the pick-up seen in core inflation in the US, NZ and Canada.

AMW: What to look out for in Australian inflation
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

22 June 2021

Agricultural commodity prices continue to perform generally very well, rounding out a generally strong period for many agricultural producers.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

16 April 2021

High frequency indicators continue to point to a recovery in the global economy in early 2021. In Australia, the economic recovery continues at a brisk pace with forward indicators pointing toward ongoing strength in activity and the labour market, even as some fiscal support is wound back.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021

14 April 2021

2021 is already showing signs that the retail sector is returning to something resembling “normal”, which is likely to see lower retail spending in areas like household goods, electronics and similar sectors.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

12 March 2021

Rising restrictions to combat a resurgence in the spread of COVID-19 towards the end of 2020 slowed the global recovery but did not derail it. In Australia, the economy continues to recover at a rapid pace.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

Insight

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

10 March 2021

COVID-19 continues to present some uncertainty around the outlook, particularly with the rollout of vaccines to emerging markets lagging that of advanced economies.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

12 February 2021

The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. Whereas in Australia, economic activity continues to rebound strongly.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

11 December 2020

Globally GDP rebounded strongly across all the major advanced economies in Q3, however the spread of COVID-19 remains a key risk to the outlook. In Australia our outlook now resembles the best-case scenario we outlined at the start of the pandemic, although large uncertainties remain, even with a vaccine seemingly close to being rolled out.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

Insight

Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Minerals Energy Outlook: December 2020

9 December 2020

Markets have been buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news, which could correspond with stronger economic activity and demand for commodities next year.

Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020

Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020

9 December 2020

Victorian retail sales are now tracking just behind New South Wales and Queensland on a year ended basis. Western Australia remains the strongest performer, but other states are catching up.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020

Insight

NAB Consumer Cashflow Analysis – Q3 2020

NAB Consumer Cashflow Analysis – Q3 2020

12 November 2020

Our November note updates our analysis for the September quarter, but also takes a closer look at how consumers who withdrew their superannuation funds early have used their retirement funds.

NAB Consumer Cashflow Analysis – Q3 2020
Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020

11 November 2020

The retail sector has proven to be very resilient this year, although many consumers have changed their spending behaviour, leading to a boom for some retailers and bust for others.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020

Insight

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020

5 November 2020

With COVID-19 restrictions easing across much of the country, consumer anxiety has continued to moderate and spending behaviours are shifting.

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020

Insight

NAB Economics Consumer Cashflow Analysis

NAB Economics Consumer Cashflow Analysis

16 September 2020

In our new Consumer Cashlflow Analysis report, we explore the stresses in household balance sheets and hence macroeconomic impacts on consumers spending behaviours.

NAB Economics Consumer Cashflow Analysis

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

11 September 2020

Globally, after massive falls in GDP in Q2 across the advanced economies, the latest indicators are pointing to a substantial, but incomplete, Q3 rebound. In Australia, GDP fell by 7% in Q2 – the largest fall in the history of the quarterly national accounts.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

Insight

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

2 September 2020

Q2 GDP fell by a massive 7% (-6.3% y/y), confirming the large hit to economic activity as a result of the shutdown to limit the COVID-19 pandemic.

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

14 August 2020

The global economy continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19. However, there is still a long way back with progress. In Australia, we have downgraded our forecasts due to the containment measures in Victoria.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

Podcast

Australian housing market update: August 2020

Australian housing market update: August 2020

10 August 2020

Record low interest rates, government support and loan repayment holidays for distressed borrowers have helped to insulate the housing market from a more significant downturn.

Australian housing market update: August 2020

Insight

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020

15 July 2020

Our data mapping points to a moderate fall in June, following massive swings in March, April and May suggesting there has been some stabilisation in retail sales.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020

Podcast

NAB Private Client Webinar with Alan Oster

NAB Private Client Webinar with Alan Oster

6 July 2020

NAB Private Customer Executive Greg Morris hosts NAB Chief Econonist Alan Oster, sharing his thoughts on the current state of the Australian economy and the road to recovery.

NAB Private Client Webinar with Alan Oster

Webinar

NAB Private Melbourne Residential Property Insights Webinar

NAB Private Melbourne Residential Property Insights Webinar

25 June 2020

NAB Private Customer Executive Greg Morris hosts Charter Keck & Cramer Chairman Scott Keck and NAB Valuations Manager Alex Dimou to discuss the Melbourne residential property landscape and share their positive outlook for the market.

NAB Private Melbourne Residential Property Insights Webinar

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020

12 June 2020

Extremely large falls in Q2 GDP for many advanced and emerging economies are likely, while in Australia we expect a large fall of around 8.5% in Q2, following the 0.3% decline in Q1.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020
NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

11 June 2020

The trend improvement in consumption-based spending remains positive, but NAB’s latest data read suggests it may be levelling off and even slowing a little.

NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

Insight

NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020

28 May 2020

The overall trend in consumption spending continues to improve, but in 4-week moving average terms is down 7.8% over the same time last year and 5.8% since the start of 2020.

NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020

Insight

NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020

14 May 2020

Large falls in consumption-based spending although the pace of decline looks to have stabilised. However business payment inflows have weakened further.

NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020

Insight

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

13 May 2020

Commodity prices generally fell in April – with particularly steep falls in oil and LNG markets, along with declines in iron ore and coal.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020
NAB Real Estate Insights Webinar

NAB Real Estate Insights Webinar

8 May 2020

Brett Moore, Customer Executive Professional Services leads a discussion with NAB experts Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist, Dean Pearson, Head of Economics Research and Mark Browning, NAB's Head of Residential Valuations in sharing their view on the varying impacts COVID-19 has had on the Real Estate industry.

NAB Real Estate Insights Webinar

Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

24 April 2020

Co-hosted by Biljana Nikolova - Customer Executive, Government, Education and Community and Shamal Dass - Head of Philanthropic Services, JBWere, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy; and Daniel Farrell - Associate Director, Rates, Global Markets shares his view on interest rate risk management.

NAB Economics Update Webinar

Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

17 April 2020

Hosted by Greg Morris - Customer Executive, NAB Private, and Kate Galvin - Customer Executive, NAB Health, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy.

NAB Economics Update Webinar

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

17 April 2020

The global economy is in a deep recession due to the rapid and widespread escalation in Covid-19 containment measures since mid-March. While the domestic economy is now expected to see a contraction of an unprecedented speed and magnitude.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

16 March 2020

We've significantly lowered our global growth forecasts, and in Australia growth slowed confirming a below-trend pace of growth prior to any virus impact.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020

12 February 2020

Good January rainfall across key agricultural production areas drove the NAB Rural Commodities Index 4.6% higher this month, despite the impact of bushfires and coronavirus.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020
NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2019

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2019

28 January 2020

The cost of living remains the single biggest driver of consumer anxiety, despite low levels of economy-wide inflation. To understand why, we asked Australians to tell us which costs are adding most to their living expenses.

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2019
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2019

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2019

22 January 2020

Our forecast points to a negative (-0.1% m/m) print for December, in line with our view that the strong November ABS print largely represented Christmas spending brought forward by expanded Black Friday sales.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019

13 December 2019

Unchanged forecasts for Australia with expected growth of 1.75% while across the globe we expect US growth to ease somewhat further and Japan’s economy is set to contract in Q4.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019
China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019

China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019

15 November 2019

Most of China’s indicators relatively weak year-on-year, however, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at the start of the October has made this harder to gauge.

China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019

12 November 2019

Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

14 October 2019

With growth having slowed in Q2 2019, there appears limited prospect of a turnaround in Q3 – given the relative weakness in business surveys, market expectations and the deteriorating global trade environment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019

8 October 2019

Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019
NAB Agribusiness Banker Survey: August 2019

NAB Agribusiness Banker Survey: August 2019

10 September 2019

Our third Agribusiness Banker Survey brings a somewhat more encouraging headline figure for agribusiness conditions, although conditions in NSW and to a lesser extent Queensland remain challenging. Spring rain is sorely needed to see an improvement.

NAB Agribusiness Banker Survey: August 2019
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2019

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2019

21 August 2019

We continue to see considerable disparities between retail sub-sectors. On a yearly basis, our data shows department stores, clothing and footwear going backwards, while household goods is barely in positive territory. Cafes, restaurants & takeaways are outperforming.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

16 August 2019

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war has reverberated through financial markets. The policy response will be important - we now expect two further 25bp cuts in the fed funds rate this year. China is also likely to use policy measures to offset any tariff impact, including allowing further depreciation of its currency.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019
The Forward View – Global: August 2019

The Forward View – Global: August 2019

15 August 2019

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war – with the US imposing a 10% tariff on most remaining China imports – has reverberated through financial markets.

The Forward View – Global: August 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

14 August 2019

US dollar NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecasted to increase by 2.1% yoy in Q3 2019, however underlying trends remain highly mixed. Higher export prices for LNG and iron ore (despite more recent spot price falls) are the key contributors, while both thermal and metallurgical coal are weaker, as are most base metals.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019

13 August 2019

We're seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month - business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don't point to an improvement in the near term.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

12 July 2019

Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

24 June 2019

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is expected to increase by 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q2 2019, a little stronger than anticipated in May.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: May 2019

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: May 2019

19 June 2019

The ABS retail trade measure will see a modest (0.2% m/m) return to positive territory in May, indicating little or no bounce back from April’s disappointing result.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: May 2019
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019

13 May 2019

Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 1.1% in April, largely reflecting higher cattle, lamb, dairy and cotton prices, offsetting further declines in grain.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019
State Economic Handbook: April 2019

State Economic Handbook: April 2019

18 April 2019

Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.

State Economic Handbook: April 2019
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2019

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2019

17 April 2019

The strong ABS print in February exceeded our expectations and indeed those of the market. It’s fair to say that we are sceptical whether such strong growth will continue.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2019
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019

26 March 2019

Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 0.2% in February – “above water” only due to strong gains in fruit and vegetables, dairy and to a lesser extent wool and sugar.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019

12 March 2019

Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

12 February 2019

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 2.7% this quarter – driven almost entirely by the upturn in iron ore prices.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q4 2018

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q4 2018

8 February 2019

Consumer anxiety reaches its highest level in over 3 years as slow income growth, high debt levels and weaker growth in household wealth weighed on households and their spending.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q4 2018
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2018

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2018

23 January 2019

This month we continue our podcast series to accompany the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index. It’s a short, 10 minute podcast, designed to give you a quick summary of the major drivers of the index this month. To listen, just click the link below.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2018
In Focus: Dairy January 2019

In Focus: Dairy January 2019

22 January 2019

Global Dairy Trade auction results have seen some upside since December after a fairly weak run over much of 2018.

In Focus: Dairy January 2019
Australian Housing Market Update December 2018

Australian Housing Market Update December 2018

17 December 2018

National dwelling values slipped 0.7% lower over the month, led by larger falls in Sydney and Melbourne where the pace of decline has accelerated. Nationally, dwelling values are down 4.2% since peaking in October last year, reducing back to levels last seen in December 2016.

Australian Housing Market Update December 2018
Forward View December 2018

Forward View December 2018

12 December 2018

Growth to slow – with rates now unlikely to change until the second half of 2020. See our special note on this.

Forward View December 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: November 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: November 2018

14 November 2018

On a rolling quarterly basis, dwelling values are now trending lower across both the combined capital city regions, where they were 1.6% lower, as well as across the combined regional areas of Australia where values were almost 1% lower.

Australian Housing Market Update: November 2018
NAB SME Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

NAB SME Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

25 October 2018

Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) business conditions edged lower in Q3 2018 to +11, while SME business confidence fell to +2pts. While conditions have eased over the past two quarters, they remain well above average, though confidence has declined to below average levels.

NAB SME Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018

24 October 2018

Anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns and how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index September 2018

NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index September 2018

17 October 2018

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.2% in September on a month-on-month basis, its weakest result since April this year. Five out of six major categories grew in the month; while other retailing contracted.

NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index September 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: October 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: October 2018

12 October 2018

The Australian housing market continued to weaken over the month, with national dwelling values falling 0.5% in September, marking twelve months of consistently falling values across CoreLogic’s national hedonic home value index.

Australian Housing Market Update: October 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018

9 October 2018

Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018

11 September 2018

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: September 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: September 2018

4 September 2018

The last month of winter saw the housing market correction deepen, with dwelling values falling across five of Australia’s eight capital cities. CoreLogic’s national index was down three tenths of a percent over the month taking the cumulative decline since values peaked in September last year to 2.2%.

Australian Housing Market Update: September 2018
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018

30 August 2018

Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018

23 August 2018

Consumer anxiety up steeply in Q2. Overall spending tightens as concerns about the economy and our household financial positions grow. Spending on utilities a key expense, and growing.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

17 August 2018

Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018

14 August 2018

The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018

10 July 2018

The business conditions index ticked up by 1pt to +15 index points in June, after easing in the previous month. The business confidence edged down 1pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018

10 July 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.4% month on month in June, following a 3.1% gain in May. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in June. The monthly gain reflects strong lamb, wool and cotton prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

5 July 2018

NAB’s USD non-rural commodity price index declined by over 3% q/q in Q2 2018. This only partially reversed the large gain made in the previous quarter and, as a result, it is still 7.5% higher than a year ago. The fall in Q2 mainly reflected a decline in iron ore and metallurgical coal prices, although LNG export prices – linked to the price of oil – rose.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018
NAB Infrastructure Survey 2018

NAB Infrastructure Survey 2018

4 July 2018

New research released today by NAB shows electricity and roads have the biggest impact on our daily lives - affecting almost 1 in 2 people (either positively or negatively).

NAB Infrastructure Survey 2018
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: May 2018

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: May 2018

3 July 2018

NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) slowed slightly in May (+1.2% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in April (1.6%). 12 months to growth was also slower in May, with sales up 17.2% compared to April’s 12 month to growth of 18.4%. While slowing, trend online retail sales is still much stronger compared to the same period a year ago.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: May 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: June 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: June 2018

15 June 2018

Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year.

Australian Housing Market Update: June 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018

12 June 2018

The business conditions index decreased by 6pts to +15 index points, easing back from the historical highs seen in April. The business confidence index fell by 5pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018

5 June 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 3.1% month on month in May after falling 2.8% in April. On a year on year basis, the index was down 4.4% in May. The monthly gain reflects strong grain, horticultural, dairy, wool and cotton prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018
Keeping my ‘why’ front and centre

Keeping my ‘why’ front and centre

29 May 2018

My ‘whys’ haven’t changed over 25 years at NAB. I’m still driven by the impact economics has on our lives and the importance of delivering independent analysis that helps people and institutions make better decisions.

Keeping my ‘why’ front and centre
Australian Housing Market Update: May 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: May 2018

16 May 2018

Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year.

Australian Housing Market Update: May 2018
In Focus: Beef – May 2018

In Focus: Beef – May 2018

8 May 2018

2018 has been exceptionally dry across much of Australia, with knock-on downside to restocker interest and young cattle prices.

In Focus: Beef – May 2018
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017

4 May 2018

Total NAB customer spending accelerated to 5.0% y/y in Q4 2017, from 3.0% y/y in the previous quarter with spending growth up across all metropolitan and regional areas.

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017
NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018

26 April 2018

Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns & how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: April 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: April 2018

16 April 2018

Australian dwelling values held firm in March, with the combined capitals continuing a softening trend, recording a 0.2% fall, while regional markets saw a 0.4% rise in values over the month.

Australian Housing Market Update: April 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018

13 April 2018

After a somewhat disappointing 2017 we continue to expect growth to gain more momentum during 2018 – with GDP increasing by around 3% through the year or 2.8% in year average terms.

NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018

16 March 2018

Financial market volatility has eased since the US equity market correction in late January but a range of geo-political and market events could trigger another bout of uncertainty.

NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2018

13 March 2018

The business conditions index moved 3pts higher to +21 index points. This is a record high since the monthly survey commenced in March 1997, although the same measure in NAB’s quarterly survey reached this level in 1994.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: March 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: March 2018

13 March 2018

Nationally, dwelling values recorded their fifth consecutive monthly decline in February, taking the value of housing 0.8% lower since the market peaked in September last year.

Australian Housing Market Update: March 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018

6 March 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.2% month on month in February, following a drop of 1.8% in January. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in February. The gain was driven by higher grain, fruit and dairy prices, offsetting falls in beef, lamb and sugar.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

20 February 2018

Stability in financial markets over 2017 and early 2018 came to abrupt end in recent weeks, with a surge in market volatility and big falls in equity markets and prices for many commodities.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: February 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: February 2018

16 February 2018

The calm in financial markets for much of 2017 and into early 2018 recently came to an abrupt end with a surge in market volatility and big falls in share prices.

NAB’s World on two pages: February 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: February 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: February 2018

15 February 2018

CoreLogic reported further slippage in dwelling values over the first month of 2018, with national dwelling values recording their second consecutive month on month decline. After dwelling values held firm in October and November, they slipped by a third of a percent in both December and January to be down 0.7% from their peak.

Australian Housing Market Update: February 2018
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: December Quarter 2017

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: December Quarter 2017

8 February 2018

The quarterly NAB Business Survey gives a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: December Quarter 2017
NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2017

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2017

7 February 2018

NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index* was basically unchanged in Q4 2017 at near survey lows with job security causing Australians the least stress, consistent with a strongly improving labour market.

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2017
In Focus: Dairy – Quarter 1 2018

In Focus: Dairy – Quarter 1 2018

23 January 2018

Dairy prices have trended downwards overall since mid last year, and although 2018 has brought some relief in USD terms, the higher AUD has eroded these gains.

In Focus: Dairy – Quarter 1 2018
2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance

2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance

16 January 2018

2017 was marked by a return to stability following the volatility of recent times and the rise of innovative new products, especially in the green and social sectors.

2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance
NAB’s World on two pages: December 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: December 2017

15 December 2017

Last month’s spike in business conditions was completely unwound in the November NAB Monthly Business Survey, although the index remains at very elevated levels. Business confidence has been less volatile, but appears to be showing a modest downward trend.

NAB’s World on two pages: December 2017
Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture

Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture

5 December 2017

Australia’s GDP continues to grow in spite of subdued wages growth and consumer spending. Gaining a greater understanding of how these contradictory trends break down across regional and metropolitan areas, as well as consumer spending categories, is behind NAB’s expansion of its Consumer Spending and Cashless Retail analyses.

Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture
Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017

Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017

1 December 2017

The economy is likely to have grown at a solid clip in Q3. While some pieces of the growth puzzle are falling into place, the stark divergence between business and consumer spending remains despite jobs growth. Non-mining and infrastructure investment will be encouraging for the RBA, but higher wages growth is required.

Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017
In Focus: Beef – November 2017

In Focus: Beef – November 2017

21 November 2017

The Australian beef cattle industry has enjoyed a great run over the past couple of years, with the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) hitting a record over 720c/kg in September last year.

In Focus: Beef – November 2017
NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017

17 November 2017

The read on business conditions was extremely strong in the October NAB Monthly Business Survey, with manufacturing posting a strong result despite the recent closure of auto manufacturing plants. The conditions index jumped to a record high, and while confidence is not quite as buoyant, it is holding above long-run average levels.

NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017
State Economic Handbook: October 2017

State Economic Handbook: October 2017

17 October 2017

Economic growth in most states is expected to strengthen somewhat in 2017-18 before moderating a little in 2018-19 as dwelling investment and LNG exports peak.

State Economic Handbook: October 2017
NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2017

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2017

13 October 2017

Australian housing market sentiment lifted over the third quarter of 2017, supported mainly by a large increase in the number of property experts reporting positive rental growth in the quarter and continued house price growth in most states.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2017
NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017

13 October 2017

For Australia, outcomes in the September NAB Monthly Business Survey were generally upbeat. Business conditions remain rock steady at levels close to their multi-year highs, but business confidence rose only modestly after a big fall last month.

NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q2 2017

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q2 2017

27 September 2017

Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – their anxieties around future spending and savings plans, what drives these concerns and how they are impacting actual spending behaviours and financial hardship.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q2 2017
Farm Management Deposits crack  billion

Farm Management Deposits crack $6 billion

25 September 2017

For the first time since their introduction in 1999, Farm Management Deposits have topped $6 billion. Khan Horne, General Manager of NAB Agribusiness, explains which sectors and states have fuelled this incredible growth, and what the result means for the Australian agricultural sector. Khan Horne, General Manager, NAB Agribusiness

Farm Management Deposits crack  billion
NAB Labs Innovation Index 2017

NAB Labs Innovation Index 2017

20 September 2017

Australia’s next phase of growth must be defined by ideas, creativity and execution. Our future lies in our ability to foster a culture of innovation. But how do we measure innovation across all sizes and types of business?

NAB Labs Innovation Index 2017
US Economic Update: September 2017

US Economic Update: September 2017

8 September 2017

Increasing household wealth (due to rising equity and house prices), as well as a high level of consumer confidence, remain tailwinds for consumer spending.

US Economic Update: September 2017
Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017

Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017

4 September 2017

Q2 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 6 September at 11:30am AEST. Additional partials will be available tomorrow and may alter our forecast.

Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017

11 August 2017

The July NAB Monthly Business Survey showed a continuation of the strong run enjoyed by the business sector. Business conditions rose to their highest level since early 2008, while confidence also strengthened.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017

7 August 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 1.2% in July as generally higher grain prices were offset by weakness across livestock, dairy, cotton and mixed performance in horticulture.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017
Millennials a generation of entrepreneurs

Millennials a generation of entrepreneurs

1 August 2017

Millennial SME owners are far more focused on growth and digital platforms than other generations, according to a new report released by NAB. But can they handle the ongoing pressure of entrepreneurship?

Millennials a generation of entrepreneurs
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June 2017

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June 2017

20 July 2017

The business sector continues to look upbeat, both with respect to current business activity – also evident in the NAB Monthly Business Survey – and importantly, the near-term outlook.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June 2017
Aussie small businesses set to expand

Aussie small businesses set to expand

17 July 2017

While almost half of SMEs are set to expand in the coming years, they’re feeling the pressure of competition, according to a new report released by NAB.

Aussie small businesses set to expand
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017

14 July 2017

Revisions to real GDP growth forecasts this month largely reflect a stronger than expected rebound in coal exports following disruptions from Cyclone Debbie in Q1. Further out, we have not fundamentally changed the tone of our outlook.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017
Gold in focus: July 2017

Gold in focus: July 2017

13 July 2017

Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.

Gold in focus: July 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017

11 July 2017

Business conditions hit another multi-year high, with most industries performing well. Stronger trading conditions (sales) and profitability drove the improvement, while employment conditions were steady.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017
China Economic Update: June 2017

China Economic Update: June 2017

5 July 2017

In May, international ratings agency Moody’s announced a downgrade for China’s sovereign credit rating, citing the country’s rising debt as a key factor in this decision.

China Economic Update: June 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017

3 July 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017

16 June 2017

The NAB Monthly Business Survey was a little softer in May, but still points to a healthy business sector. Business conditions are elevated and confidence is holding up above long-run average levels.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017
Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017

Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017

15 June 2017

Financial anxiety eases but 4 in 10 consumers still experienced some form of financial hardship in the last 3 months. Financial anxiety continues to be a bigger issue for young people (particularly women) and low income earners.

Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017
Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017

6 June 2017

This is the second month of NAB’s new regional price indicators, in effect a separate NAB Rural Commodities Index for every region in Australia.

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017
Markets Today: Strong enough

Markets Today: Strong enough

5 June 2017

Sheryl Crow’s hit ”strong enough” finds Crow frustrated in a relationship and asking the question, "Are you strong enough to be my man?". ell Friday night was all about the US jobs report and no doubt a similar question (without the man bit of course) crossed investors’ mind.

Markets Today: Strong enough
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2017

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2017

31 May 2017

New data released by NAB today shows that spending on consumption-based goods and services by NAB customers slowed to 2.0% over the year to Q1 2017, from 3.1% over the year to Q4 2016.

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2017
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q1 2017

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q1 2017

24 May 2017

NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index - which measures concerns about future spending and savings arising from job security, health, retirement, cost of living and government polices - fell to a survey low 55.9 points in Q1 2017 (58.7 in Q4 2016).

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q1 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017

8 May 2017

The NAB Monthly Business Survey posted another strong result in April, with both business conditions and confidence improving – pointing to ongoing strength in business activity in the near-term.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017
NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016

NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016

26 April 2017

Australians remain highly anxious. While having more money might solve some of our concerns, it would do little to solve some of the biggest detractors of wellbeing. But, it could help close the “wellbeing gap” between high and low income earners.

NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017

3 April 2017

With house prices rising, vacancy rates declining and a previous drop in building approvals, it’s likely that residential construction activity should begin to strengthen.

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017

3 April 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017
Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.

Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.

20 March 2017

R.I.P. Chuck Berry. And R.I.P. anti-protectionism, after the weekend G20 meeting communique omitted reference to avoiding protectionism, reflecting the new reality of the USA’s position

Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017

17 March 2017

In February, the NAB Monthly Business Survey moderated from the surprising strength seen in January, but remained consistent with a relatively robust view of business activity and investment behaviour in the near-term.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017
Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017

Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017

8 March 2017

Financial markets rallied strongly shortly after it was clear Donald Trump would be the next President. This was evident across stock, currency and bond markets, and there was also a decline in credit spreads.

Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017
State Economic Handbook: March 2017

State Economic Handbook: March 2017

8 March 2017

Growth will remain solid across the large south-eastern states, while there are signs of stabilisation in mining states as the end of the downswing in resource-related investment approaches.

State Economic Handbook: March 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017

28 February 2017

Summer has brought extremely volatile conditions to Australia’s cropping districts. While much of eastern Australia has baked in an extraordinary heatwave, Western Australia has suffered substantial flooding.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017
Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

24 February 2017

Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016
In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017

In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017

21 February 2017

For the 2016-17 season, we developed a new wheat production forecast model, based on regional rainfall and state yields going back to federation, with an allowance for technological change.

In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017

17 February 2017

Business surveys and measures tracking the volume of activity suggest that the global economic upturn lifted a notch toward the end of last year and that trend seems to have continued into early 2017.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017
India Monetary Policy: February 2017

India Monetary Policy: February 2017

14 February 2017

The RBI, somewhat surprisingly, maintained the policy repo rate at 6.25%. Uncertainty about the effects of demonetisation and sticky core inflation were factors.

India Monetary Policy: February 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

14 February 2017

The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017
US Economic Update: February 2017

US Economic Update: February 2017

10 February 2017

The US economy continues along the same moderate growth path it has experienced in its recovery from the Global Financial Crisis.

US Economic Update: February 2017
China Economic Update: February 2017

China Economic Update: February 2017

10 February 2017

From a political perspective, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the TPP reflected US sentiment against globalisation, particularly in the mid-west rust belt.

China Economic Update: February 2017
At your service: a snapshot of Australia’s booming service economy

At your service: a snapshot of Australia’s booming service economy

1 February 2017

Australia’s service sector already accounts for 70% of our GDP and shows no sign of slowing its growth. That means it’s never been more important to understand the where, what and how of Australia’s most important economic driver. NAB crunches the numbers for you.

At your service: a snapshot of Australia’s booming service economy
NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016

31 January 2017

Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016
Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017

30 January 2017

While we are receiving many questions about the impact of President Trump’s policies on the outlook for the US and global economies and markets, the most frequent question we are being asked about Australia is “why is NAB forecasting two interest rate cuts in 2017” (in May and August)?

Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017
US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP

US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP

30 January 2017

We expect growth to face some headwinds in coming quarters but to strengthen later in the year and into the next, assuming the President delivers a fiscal stimulus to the economy

US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP
US Trade Policy. What Now?  January 2017

US Trade Policy. What Now? January 2017

23 January 2017

Re-building the US industrial base, aiming to “massively increase jobs, wages, incomes and opportunities for the people of our country” is the principal economic objective of the Trump Presidency.

US Trade Policy. What Now?  January 2017
In Focus: Dairy January 2017

In Focus: Dairy January 2017

17 January 2017

2016 was a very tough year for many Australian dairy producers, with farmers beginning the year amid extremely dry conditions in key dairy regions and steep cuts to farmgate prices

In Focus: Dairy January 2017
Australian Markets Weekly: 16 January 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 16 January 2016

17 January 2017

Against flatter job advertisements of late, job vacancies have been trending higher. Higher job vacancies are usually associated with a lower unemployment rate and greater employment growth

Australian Markets Weekly: 16 January 2016
2016 Year in Review: Capital Financing

2016 Year in Review: Capital Financing

10 January 2017

Steve Lambert, EGM Capital Financing, explains, innovation and volatility again dominated 2016. Markets were challenged by social, political and economic events which brought about new opportunities for our customers. We delivered insights and solutions to help them face into the increasing environment of disruption and regulation.

2016 Year in Review: Capital Financing
The Forward View – Global: December 2016

The Forward View – Global: December 2016

14 December 2016

Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth, they have been improving in the months leading up to November.

The Forward View – Global: December 2016
China Economic Update: November 2016

China Economic Update: November 2016

29 November 2016

Since the middle of 2015, the seven-day Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has been unusually stable – when compared with the extreme volatility in this market over the preceding five years.

China Economic Update: November 2016
Service economy blooming

Service economy blooming

14 November 2016

While the 24-hour news cycle may talk down Australia’s transition from a commodity to service economy, the figures tell a different, and very positive, story.

Service economy blooming
US Economic Update: November 2016

US Economic Update: November 2016

11 November 2016

The new President and administration will take office at a time when the economy is in reasonably solid condition at the macro level.

US Economic Update: November 2016
NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2016

NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2016

11 November 2016

Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth – and they have been improving in the months leading up to October.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2016
NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2016

8 November 2016

Business confidence has proven to be relatively resilient this year, but did moderate in October – falling 2 points to +4 index points (below the long-run average of +6).

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2016
Markets Today: The Fear

Markets Today: The Fear

31 October 2016

In the hour after it was announced that Hillary Clinton’s e-mails were the subject of a new FBI probe, USD/JPY dropped from Y105.50 to Y104.50, the S&P dropped 20 points or 1% with the VIX spiking by 19% and 10-year Treasuries dropped 2bps from 1.85% to 1.83%.

Markets Today: The Fear
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016

28 October 2016

The progress of the season, which has been generally much wetter than average in eastern Australia but dryer in the west, continues to be the major consideration for Australian agriculture.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016
Markets Today: Too Much [Brexit] Heaven?

Markets Today: Too Much [Brexit] Heaven?

28 October 2016

The Bee Gees 1979 classic “Too Much Heaven” pretty much sums up overnight news, with UK GDP printing much better than expected at 0.5% q/q against expectations of a 0.3% print.

Markets Today: Too Much [Brexit] Heaven?
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: September 2016

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: September 2016

20 October 2016

The quarterly iteration of the NAB Business Survey provides additional valuable insight into Australian business than the regular NAB Monthly Business Survey. This publication offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: September 2016
Consumer spend at direct care Health Practitioners

Consumer spend at direct care Health Practitioners

18 October 2016

This report provides a first look at Australian household spending patterns across a range of patient care practitioners (excluding GP’s, hospitals, pharmacies) based on transactions made through NAB’s health payment systems.

Consumer spend at direct care Health Practitioners
The Forward View – Australia: October 2016

The Forward View – Australia: October 2016

14 October 2016

The outlook for the labour market is key. While we continue to expect the unemployment rate to remain in its recent range between 5½% and 5¾%, the recent softening in trend employment growth bears close watching.

The Forward View – Australia: October 2016
China Economic Update: September 2016

China Economic Update: September 2016

16 September 2016

The rust belt region has continued to underperform in recent times – as service focussed provinces have driven a greater share of China’s growth. In 2015, the three rust belt provinces were among the four weakest growing regions.

China Economic Update: September 2016
The forward view – Australia: September 2016

The forward view – Australia: September 2016

15 September 2016

How one assesses Australia’s economic performance at present depends in large part on which industry / geography one looks at and whether the benchmark is in real or nominal terms.

The forward view – Australia: September 2016
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016

13 September 2016

The results from this month’s survey remain broadly consistent with our prior view of the economy and the near-term outlook. It points to a patchy, but sustained, improvement in the non-mining economy, with the major services sectors and construction leading the way.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016
US Economic Update: September 2016

US Economic Update: September 2016

5 September 2016

Despite inflation remaining stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% goal, lower unemployment can still be expected to generate price pressures.

US Economic Update: September 2016
India Monetary Policy – August 2016

India Monetary Policy – August 2016

16 August 2016

The RBI held the policy (Repo) rate at 6.5%, as expected. NAB Economics is forecasting a 25bp cut in rates to 6.25% in the December quarter, on expectation of softer food prices.

India Monetary Policy – August 2016
Housing Market Report – Winter 2016 Edition

Housing Market Report – Winter 2016 Edition

15 August 2016

The Housing Market Report is your guide to the current home value trends in Australia. You’ll find information about what’s happened over the last 12 months, as well as NAB’s expectations of where prices are headed in the near future.

Housing Market Report – Winter 2016 Edition
China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016

China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016

12 August 2016

A rebound in real estate investment, new construction activity and industrial demand for related products – such as steel and cement – helped to underpin economic growth in the first half of 2016.

China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016
Improving Community Connections – August 2016

Improving Community Connections – August 2016

11 August 2016

Through our research on wellbeing Australians have told us that they believe it is important for them to feel “connected” with their local community. But how connected do they really feel and what would they change within their communities to improve their sense of personal wellbeing?

Improving Community Connections – August 2016
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2016

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2016

11 August 2016

Sentiment in the retail commercial property market has risen to its highest level in over six years. However, strong retail market confidence was not enough to offset the lower sentiment recorded across the office, industrial and CBD hotels sectors. Overall, the NAB Commercial Property Index fell 7 points to +5 in the second quarter of this year.

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2016
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016

10 August 2016

Global financial markets have digested the latest shock – the UK’s “Brexit” vote – quite well. In Australia, business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016
NAB change in cash rate call:  August 2016

NAB change in cash rate call: August 2016

9 August 2016

At its August meeting, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 1.5% (against our expectations) following a similarly-sized 25bp cut in May. Major banks have since passed on some, but not all, of the easing through to lending rates.

NAB change in cash rate call:  August 2016
NAB Monthly Business Survey:  July 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2016

9 August 2016

Business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey, with firms choosing to remain focussed on the positive trends within their own business.

NAB Monthly Business Survey:  July 2016
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – June 2016

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – June 2016

3 August 2016

National Australia Bank’s latest Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) shows online spending grew by 13.5% in the 12 months to June 2016. While still strong, growth has flattened from the year-on-year growth seen back in 2011 when the index was first established.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – June 2016
US Economic Update: 2016 Q2 GDP

US Economic Update: 2016 Q2 GDP

2 August 2016

In the June quarter 2016, US GDP grew by an annualised 1.2% qoq. This was a little stronger than the 0.8% qoq growth recorded in the March quarter, but still a relatively soft rate of growth and below expectations.

US Economic Update: 2016 Q2 GDP
Monthly Financial Markets Update – July 2016

Monthly Financial Markets Update – July 2016

29 July 2016

It was a difficult month for equities with an initial sell off in early June, following the release of weak jobs growth figures in the United States and another decline later in the month following the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – July 2016
NAB SME Business Survey: June 2016

NAB SME Business Survey: June 2016

28 July 2016

The NAB SME Survey revealed very strong results across a wide range of indicators in Q2, suggesting that the non-mining recovery is broadening to include smaller businesses.

NAB SME Business Survey: June 2016
NAB Quarterly Business Survey:  June 2016

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June 2016

21 July 2016

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides valuable insight into Australian business, and offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey:  June 2016
State Economic Handbook:  July 2016

State Economic Handbook: July 2016

21 July 2016

Solid growth across the large south-eastern states has become increasingly entrenched over the past year, while difficult conditions in the mining sector are having a more pervasive impact across Western Australia, the Northern Territory and parts of Queensland.

State Economic Handbook:  July 2016
U.S. Economic Update: July 2016

U.S. Economic Update: July 2016

18 July 2016

Primarily driven by very strong consumption growth, activity looks to have picked up in the June quarter, after a sluggish start to the year.

U.S. Economic Update: July 2016
China Economic Update:  July 2016

China Economic Update: July 2016

15 July 2016

Despite decades of change, China’s State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are a specific segment of the economy that still requires substantial reform.

China Economic Update:  July 2016
NAB Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016

NAB Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016

15 July 2016

Housing sentiment softens but still positive. Victoria and Queensland expected to provide the best capital returns in the next 1-2 years as prices continue falling in WA. Overall demand from foreign buyers continues to shrink as buyers retreat from Queensland and re-focus towards Victoria.

NAB Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016
Brexit and World Growth

Brexit and World Growth

12 July 2016

In our latest global forecast update we revised down our United Kingdom (UK) year-average GDP growth forecasts in the wake of the UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) – so called Brexit.

Brexit and World Growth
Rural Commodities Wrap:  June 16

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 16

30 June 2016

Our expectations for prices in the coming year are underpinned by our forecasts for a generally lower AUD, tracking in the high 60s range in late 2016 and 2017.

Rural Commodities Wrap:  June 16
Brexit ignites global uncertainty – but it’s not another GFC

Brexit ignites global uncertainty – but it’s not another GFC

29 June 2016

With the Brexit vote we expect markets to push lower over coming weeks until investors feel appropriately compensated for these heightened risks. We see post Global Financial Crisis share market sell-offs as a useful guide for what is likely over coming weeks.

Brexit ignites global uncertainty – but it’s not another GFC
Monthly Financial Markets & Asset Allocation Update: June 2016

Monthly Financial Markets & Asset Allocation Update: June 2016

28 June 2016

Brexit is a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, with associated uncertainty. Investors will need compensation for this with lower share prices. We believe a 15% global equity sell-off over the next 6-8 weeks is a reasonable base case.

Monthly Financial Markets & Asset Allocation Update: June 2016
Quality investing: What you need to know

Quality investing: What you need to know

28 June 2016

The concept of assessing a company’s quality gained popularity after the collapse of the tech bubble of 2001. Here we explore the quantitative and qualitative measures implemented to determine quality investments.

Quality investing: What you need to know
China Economic Update: 20 June 2016

China Economic Update: 20 June 2016

20 June 2016

China’s longer term growth prospects are dependent on a range of economic reforms – critical to supporting the broad based productivity growth necessary to offset the negative demographic effects from the country’s declining working aged population.

China Economic Update: 20 June 2016
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016

14 June 2016

This month’s NAB Business Survey remains true to theme of ongoing recovery in the non-mining economy, building on the already solid growth seen in the recent National Accounts.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016
US Economic Update: June 2016

US Economic Update: June 2016

9 June 2016

March quarter GDP growth was only 0.8% qoq annualised. However, at this stage it looks like GDP growth has strengthened in the June quarter.

US Economic Update: June 2016
India GDP Q1 2016

India GDP Q1 2016

8 June 2016

The Indian economy expanded by 7.9% in the final (March 2016) quarter of the 2015-16 financial year; India is now the fastest-growing major economy.

India GDP Q1 2016
Budget 2016-17: Agriculture

Budget 2016-17: Agriculture

4 May 2016

The 2016-17 Budget includes a number of measures for agriculture, relating to water and drought, infrastructure, innovation and trade as well as revenue and savings measures.

Budget 2016-17: Agriculture
Australian exports to East Asia

Australian exports to East Asia

29 April 2016

NAB surveyed Australian business integration with East Asia in September 2014 and China in December 2015. Recent headline trade data indicate a reversal in the decades-long process of growing integration with our region as exports have declined.

Australian exports to East Asia
US Economic Update, 2016Q1 GDP

US Economic Update, 2016Q1 GDP

29 April 2016

Quarterly U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to a weak 0.1% qoq, or 0.5% annualised in the March quarter. As the same quarter last year was also weak, there was little change in the over-the-year growth rate which has been around 2% for the last three quarters.

US Economic Update, 2016Q1 GDP
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: in depth report – March 2016

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: in depth report – March 2016

28 April 2016

Australian consumers spent an estimated $19.3 billion online in the past year, primarily on homewares, groceries, media and fashion. According to National Australia Bank’s (NAB) latest Online Retail Sales Index in-depth report, online spending increased 12.4% over the last year.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: in depth report – March 2016
RBA view change: low CPI to see a 25bps cut in May

RBA view change: low CPI to see a 25bps cut in May

27 April 2016

Today’s CPI produced the lowest quarterly and annual rates of core inflation recorded since the RBA commenced inflation targeting - and rates that are starting to diverge below the lower end of the Bank’s target band.

RBA view change: low CPI to see a 25bps cut in May
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2016

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2016

27 April 2016

Sentiment in Australian commercial property markets softened a little, but remains well above long-term average levels. Despite some pull back, CBD hotels and office markets continue leading the way, with NSW still at the forefront by state and WA floundering.

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2016
How ‘trendy’ is your investment strategy?

How ‘trendy’ is your investment strategy?

22 April 2016

We all want to understand and profit from the latest trends, particularly when it comes to investment opportunities and strategies - but is it worthwhile jumping on the bandwagon? Here we explore the upsides and downsides of investing for or against market trends.

How ‘trendy’ is your investment strategy?
Monthly Financial Markets Update – April 2016

Monthly Financial Markets Update – April 2016

22 April 2016

In our April update, Nick Ryder, JBWere Investment Strategist, highlights that the local equity market faces a number of headwinds from the rise in the AUD, lower commodity prices, higher potential bank capital requirements and profit margin pressures.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – April 2016
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2016

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2016

21 April 2016

The March quarter NAB Business Survey shows both a resilient non-mining recovery and an outlook that has continued to improve. Both business conditions and confidence remained at levels similar to that seen in the previous quarter.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2016
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016

20 April 2016

Our forecasts point to Australian agricultural prices trending generally somewhat higher in AUD terms this year, despite challenging international conditions. However, the stronger AUD presents a risk to local prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016
NAB Copper Outlook – April 2016

NAB Copper Outlook – April 2016

15 April 2016

2016 is shaping up to be a crucial year for copper producers and copper markets. Its biggest consumer, China, is going through a period of slower economic growth, with structural transitions under way and a depreciating currency.

NAB Copper Outlook – April 2016
How Australian business views the sharing economy

How Australian business views the sharing economy

13 April 2016

The sharing economy is growing at a rapid rate, as new business models based on ‘access to’ rather than ‘ownership of’ physical and human assets like skills, time and space, continue to emerge.

How Australian business views the sharing economy
India Monetary Policy Outlook – April 2016

India Monetary Policy Outlook – April 2016

13 April 2016

The April 5th Monetary policy meeting was a landmark in terms of the policy measures announced. The 25bp cut in the policy rate was accompanied by a raft of measures to boost liquidity and ensure more effective monetary transmission by banks.

India Monetary Policy Outlook – April 2016
US Economic Update – 4 April 2016

US Economic Update – 4 April 2016

4 April 2016

In last month’s Update we noted that after a soft end to 2015, the partial indicators were pointing to a turnaround. Some new data (for February) and some hefty revisions to historical data later, March quarter 2016 GDP growth is now tracking at only 0.7% qoq (annualised) according to the Atlanta Fed’s ‘Nowcast’.

US Economic Update – 4 April 2016
Strategy: investment timing and analysis

Strategy: investment timing and analysis

23 March 2016

Understanding the structure of different investment options is key to choosing what’s right for your objectives and risk profile. Sally Campbell from JBWere, explains the benefits of the main types of product you can include in your portfolio.

Strategy: investment timing and analysis
Monthly Financial Markets Update – March 2016

Monthly Financial Markets Update – March 2016

22 March 2016

In our March update, Nick Ryder, NAB Private Wealth Investment Strategist, talks mixed messages with slumps in developed markets, India and China while the US posted slight improvements and Australia performed reasonably well. Meanwhile, Europe’s inflation entered negative territory.

Monthly Financial Markets Update – March 2016
China Economic Update:  March 2016

China Economic Update: March 2016

15 March 2016

Casting a wider net over China’s total debt Last month, we highlighted China’s debt as one of the key concerns around its economy in 2016. Debt levels have risen sharply since the Global Financial Crisis, particularly outside the traditional banking system – where the scale of borrowings is frequently under-estimated. This month, we’re digging a […]

China Economic Update:  March 2016
Housing Market Report – Summer Edition

Housing Market Report – Summer Edition

9 March 2016

The Housing Market Report is your guide to the current home value trends in Australia. You’ll find information about what’s happened over the last 12 months, as well as NAB’s expectations of where prices are headed in the near future.

Housing Market Report – Summer Edition
NAB Wellbeing Report: Q4 2015

NAB Wellbeing Report: Q4 2015

7 March 2016

In this report, we take a look at longer term wellbeing trends, focussing on those groups that have historically reported the lowest wellbeing.

NAB Wellbeing Report: Q4 2015
Asset Allocation Insight – February 2016

Asset Allocation Insight – February 2016

18 February 2016

In this discussion of alternative investments, Nick Ryder explains that the increased weighting in this asset class is the result of less attractive prices in traditional asset classes.

Asset Allocation Insight – February 2016
The USA trade bonanza

The USA trade bonanza

16 February 2016

The United States of America (US) is the economic powerhouse of the world, with its largest and richest consumer market. Last year marked the 10th anniversary of the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA), which came into force in January 2005.

The USA trade bonanza
Oil Market Update – February 2016

Oil Market Update – February 2016

4 February 2016

Since early November, oil prices have resumed a clear downward trend, punctuated by episodes of sharp declines during early to mid- December and the first half of January.

Oil Market Update – February 2016
The World on Two Pages – January 2016

The World on Two Pages – January 2016

27 January 2016

2016 got off to a bad start in global equity and commodity markets and in light of recent financial market turmoil in Australia, the NAB Monthly Business Survey provides a timely indication of how market movements have so far affected business sentiment.

The World on Two Pages – January 2016
China’s economy at a glance

China’s economy at a glance

20 January 2016

China’s latest national accounts data showed a slowing trend for China’s economy in the December quarter. The services sector - the main engine for growth over 2015 – also slowed in the December quarter.

China’s economy at a glance
In Focus: Dairy January 2016

In Focus: Dairy January 2016

18 January 2016

Australian producers have been shielded from much tumult by a lower Australian dollar and a large and relatively stable domestic market.

In Focus: Dairy January 2016
Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Australia

Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Australia

18 January 2016

The falls in global oil prices over the last year or so are fundamentally a reaction to oversupply in global markets – as US new oil supply comes on board, OPEC puts the squeeze on profitability of new sources of supply by refusing to cut production.

Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Australia
U.S. Economic Update: January 2016

U.S. Economic Update: January 2016

15 January 2016

We expect another year of moderate growth in 2016, with further labour market improvement and inflation starting to move back towards the Fed’s target.

U.S. Economic Update: January 2016
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2015

23 December 2015

The NAB Quarterly Australian Behaviour Survey (formerly NAB Consumer Anxiety Report) shows consumer anxiety falling again (and to its lowest level since Q4 2014), amid more signs of improvement in the labour market and non-mining segments of the economy.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2015
10 Themes for 2016

10 Themes for 2016

22 December 2015

The NAB Group Economics team identify 10 global and domestic themes which will have bearing on the economic and financial market outlook for 2016.

10 Themes for 2016
Property Insight: Gradual slowing in key metros

Property Insight: Gradual slowing in key metros

21 December 2015

In November we’ve seen small declines in dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne with auction clearance rates falling to 60% along with average selling time. Reversing recent trends, prices in other metros rose in November.

Property Insight: Gradual slowing in key metros
NAB Group Economics: Special Report

NAB Group Economics: Special Report

21 December 2015

Many Australians dream of a financial windfall that would significantly improve their lives forever, but how much is enough? In this special report, we ask over 2,000 Australians to tell us how much they need.

NAB Group Economics: Special Report
China Economic Update – December 2015

China Economic Update – December 2015

16 December 2015

China’s online retail sales have rapidly expanded in recent years, as rising disposable incomes and growing internet penetration have supported the sector’s growth.

China Economic Update – December 2015
Australia/India Free Trade area – what to watch out for

Australia/India Free Trade area – what to watch out for

16 December 2015

The Indian market offers great potential for Australian exporters. Already the world’s third largest economy and growing by over 7% annually, India looks set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in the next 7 years.

Australia/India Free Trade area – what to watch out for
Stay optimistic

Stay optimistic

11 December 2015

There have been some volatile shifts in the global economy recently, prompting pessimists to declare that there’s a 50–50 chance of Australia going into recession. However, a closer look at the numbers behind the forecasts shows there’s plenty of reason for optimism.

Stay optimistic
The World on Two Pages – December 2015

The World on Two Pages – December 2015

9 December 2015

In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.

The World on Two Pages – December 2015
India GDP & Monetary Policy

India GDP & Monetary Policy

9 December 2015

India’s economy accelerated in the September quarter 2015, with Real GDP growing by 7.4% yoy, up from 7% in the June quarter. NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.5% expansion in 2015, followed by 7.6% in 2016.

India GDP & Monetary Policy
Australian Economic Update – Q3 GDP

Australian Economic Update – Q3 GDP

9 December 2015

Variable economic growth outcomes continued into Q3, with real GDP picking up strongly to 0.9% q/q, following a revised weak 0.3% outcome in Q2 and a strong 0.9% increase in Q1. Year-ended growth picked up moderately to 2.5% y/y, but remained below trend.

Australian Economic Update – Q3 GDP
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015

8 December 2015

In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015
Monthly Business Survey – November 2015

Monthly Business Survey – November 2015

8 December 2015

Consistently above average business conditions are an encouraging sign that the apparent non-mining sector recovery continues to gain traction, despite relatively muted levels of business confidence.

Monthly Business Survey – November 2015
Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015

Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015

4 December 2015

Commodity markets remain under pressure, reflecting concerns over emerging market demand (especially from China), at a time when the supply of many commodities is on the incline. Anticipated policy tightening by the US Fed is also having an impact.

Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015
Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts

Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts

1 December 2015

This report presents our forecasts for Australian agricultural exports for 2015-16 as well as estimates for 2016-17. Overall, 2015-16 looks to be a promising export year for most major Australian agricultural exports in value terms, supported by a lower Australian dollar.

Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts
Australia GDP Preview – Q3 2015

Australia GDP Preview – Q3 2015

30 November 2015

Economic partials for Q3 have been mixed, but point to stronger real GDP growth of 0.8% in the quarter (up from 0.2% in Q2), as a series of one-offs that weighed on Q2 growth recede.

Australia GDP Preview – Q3 2015
Investment Insights: Modest house price growth predicted for 2016

Investment Insights: Modest house price growth predicted for 2016

19 November 2015

Movements in the residential property market affect everyone - whether you’re an investor, an owner occupier, or a renter. After several years of incredibly strong house price growth, primarily in Sydney and Melbourne, there is now heated debate over where prices are likely to move.

Investment Insights: Modest house price growth predicted for 2016
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2015

18 November 2015

Office property re-emerges as the strongest commercial property sector. Overall sentiment in Australian commercial property markets has moderated a little, but it remains at elevated levels and continues to vary widely across sectors and states.

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015

17 November 2015

Agricultural markets continue to react to the unfolding El Niño event, albeit in varying directions. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was stable in October.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015
China’s economy at a glance

China’s economy at a glance

12 November 2015

China’s service sector has been the main contributor to economic growth in recent times – particularly as trends in the industrial sector continue to weaken. In Q3, the services industry (led by finance) maintained fairly stable growth.

China’s economy at a glance
The World on Two Pages – November 2015

The World on Two Pages – November 2015

11 November 2015

Global growth remains sub-trend and there is little sign of an imminent acceleration in the pace of expansion while in Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction.

The World on Two Pages – November 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015

10 November 2015

In Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction. Recent outcomes from the business survey support this contention with business conditions holding up at a high level in October, and the unemployment rate holding steady.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015
Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015

Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015

5 November 2015

Based on incoming information, we have modestly reviewed our GDP forecasts to 2.6% in 2015/16 and 3.0% in 2016/17 (annual average). Overall, NAB Economics remain of the view that the recovery in the non-mining sector is slowly becoming more well entrenched.

Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015
NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – Q3 2015

5 November 2015

Business conditions among Australia’s ASX 300 firms rose to a new survey high of +20 points (up +12 from +8 points in the previous quarter). The gap between very big and small business is now at its widest margin since this survey began.

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – Q3 2015
Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP

Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP

3 November 2015

Overall, we assess this year’s El Niño as a moderate risk to farm production. We forecast farm GDP (2% of the total economy) to be flat to moderately lower (0 to -5%) in 2015-16, which will only marginally subtract from headline GDP.

Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP
NAB Business Survey – AUD Insights

NAB Business Survey – AUD Insights

30 October 2015

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides a rich source of information about Australian business, their behaviours and the environment in which they operate. In addition to questions around sales, profitability, employment and the like, one focus of the Survey revolves around currency markets.

NAB Business Survey – AUD Insights
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – September 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – September 2015

30 October 2015

At 1.1% the latest seasonally adjusted NAB online retail sales index shows sales accelerated in September (possibly iphone 6S related), an improvement on the 0.6% recorded in August, and a rebound on the July contraction (-1.4).

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – September 2015
NAB Wellbeing Report: Q3 2015

NAB Wellbeing Report: Q3 2015

30 October 2015

Australia’s wellbeing has risen to its highest level since mid-2013, with levels of happiness, life satisfaction, life worth and anxiety all improving, the latest NAB Wellbeing Index has found.

NAB Wellbeing Report: Q3 2015
NAB Quarterly SME Survey – September Quarter 2015

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – September Quarter 2015

29 October 2015

In the quarter, SME business conditions stayed unchanged at +4 index points. Within the components of business conditions, trading conditions were particularly strong, which flowed into modestly better profitability conditions. However, employment conditions remained subdued.

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – September Quarter 2015
NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2015

29 October 2015

Housing market sentiment softens as expectations for future price growth and rents are scaled back in most states. Queensland is the exception, replacing NSW as the most optimistic state for residential property and tipped to lead the country for price and rental growth over the next 1-2 years.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2015
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – 12 months to August 2015

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – 12 months to August 2015

26 October 2015

Charitable giving in Australia grew in the year to August, with people continuing to give more to charity despite persistent doubt about the economy. Overall giving to charity grew by 4.9 per cent in the 12 months to August 2015. However, this is down from growth of 7.8 per cent the previous year.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – 12 months to August 2015
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – Q3 2015

22 October 2015

Leading indicators were generally more positive in Q3 2015. Forward orders jumped to their highest level since late 2009, while expectations for conditions in 3 and 12 months time both improved.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – Q3 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015

20 October 2015

Agricultural prices continued to diverge in September. Most major grains fell as did fruit, vegetables and trade lamb (reflecting seasonal trends) however dairy prices strongly rebounded and sugar, beef and rice were also higher in AUD terms.

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015
China’s economy at a glance – October

China’s economy at a glance – October

20 October 2015

China’s latest national accounts data showed a slowing trend for China’s economy in the September quarter falling below the annual growth target for the first time this year. As a result, we are revising our forecasts for China’s growth.

China’s economy at a glance – October
Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture

19 October 2015

The Trans Pacific Partnership delivers tariff reductions and improved market access for Australian agricultural products. With TPP countries representing a third of Australian agricultural exports, these benefits are potentially significant.

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture
China Economic Update: October 2015

China Economic Update: October 2015

15 October 2015

China moving the international standard – already planned but delayed – could show that the transition in China’s economic growth model has progressed further than previously understood.

China Economic Update: October 2015
The World on Two Pages – October 2015

The World on Two Pages – October 2015

14 October 2015

We are still forecasting little to no pick up in the pace of global growth and our domestic forecasts are unchanged this month, with real GDP expected to expand by 2.4% in 2015/16 and 3.1% in 2016/17.

The World on Two Pages – October 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015

13 October 2015

There was a partial recovery in business confidence in September as the Government’s leadership uncertainties were resolved, while financial market volatility and emerging market concerns have moderated from the heights of the previous month – although market concerns remain elevated.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015
Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights

9 October 2015

Earlier this week, Australia agreed to become part of a historic trade agreement, including countries that account for nearly 36% of global GDP and one quarter of global trade. This document provides a summary of the key measures, reported benefits and what we know so far about contentious issues.

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015

1 October 2015

Key Points Agricultural prices diverged in August and into September – protein and fibres generally rose while crops trended lower. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was flat in AUD terms in August (down 0.1%) and moderately lower in USD terms (down 2.0%). The AUD continued its downward trajectory in August, before sinking below 70 […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – August 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – August 2015

1 October 2015

The latest NAB online retail sales index figures show sales grew in August. In dollar terms, its estimated Australians spent $17.5 billion on online retail in the last year. Growth accelerated for electronic games and toys which leads growth, along with media and fashion.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – August 2015
China’s economy at a glance – September

China’s economy at a glance – September

14 September 2015

Short term disruptions add some uncertainty to extent of China’s economic slowdown. China’s 2014 GDP was revised lower in September – with growth down to 7.3% (compared with 7.4% previously) – due to weaker growth in services.

China’s economy at a glance – September
United States Economic Update – 11 September 2015

United States Economic Update – 11 September 2015

11 September 2015

The Fed is still likely to start lifting rates this year, but we now expect this to be in December rather than September. The US economy is expected to continue growing at an above trend rate. We now expect growth in both 2015 & 2016 to be 2.5%.

United States Economic Update – 11 September 2015
Emerging Asia – September 2015

Emerging Asia – September 2015

11 September 2015

Concerns about the extent of slowing in China, the anticipated rise in the US Fed Funds rate, and sharp declines in commodity prices have generated unease about the impact on emerging markets. Among the major Asian Emerging economies, South Korea and Taiwan, appear stronger than the rest.

Emerging Asia – September 2015
State Economic Handbook: Shifting sands

State Economic Handbook: Shifting sands

11 September 2015

Economic activity is shifting back to the eastern seaboard as the economy transitions towards non-mining sources of growth with domestic demand will be strongest in New South Wales and Victoria.

State Economic Handbook: Shifting sands
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2015

9 September 2015

Australian's are feeling less anxious underpinned by lower stress associated with retirement funding, cost of living, job security and health. And for the first time, NAB’s Consumer Anxiety report sheds light on spending behaviours across states.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015

9 September 2015

The pace of growth in the big advanced economies has picked up, mainly reflecting a US recovery from weak first quarter growth. In contrast, Japan and the Euro-zone are not growing strongly and Canada is in recession.

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015
The World on Two Pages – September 2015

The World on Two Pages – September 2015

9 September 2015

There is increasing evidence that growth momentum is broadening across the the non-mining Australian economy – not limited to the dwelling sector – in response to the lower AUD and interest rates, with improvement particularly evident in services sectors.

The World on Two Pages – September 2015
In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015

In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015

9 September 2015

Lamb prices follow a generally seasonal pattern, rising early in the year before declining in spring as spring lamb supply becomes available. Nonetheless, monthly average trade lamb prices have remained reasonably steady through July and into August this year and prices are now well ahead of the same time last year.

In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015

8 September 2015

Business conditions point to a further improvement in the non-mining economy, even as jitters in financial markets weigh on confidence. The conditions index jumped 5 points to +11 in August lifting the trend index to its highest level since late 2009.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015
Australian Economic Update: GDP Q2, 2015

Australian Economic Update: GDP Q2, 2015

2 September 2015

Variability in Australia’s growth outcomes by quarter indicates an economy undergoing significant structural change as it attempts to transition away from mining-investment led growth.

Australian Economic Update: GDP Q2, 2015
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – July 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – July 2015

2 September 2015

We estimate Australians spent $17.4 billion on online retail in the 12 months to July 2015 which level is equivalent to 7.1% of spending at traditional bricks & mortar retailers excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – July 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015

24 August 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index continues to rise in AUD terms (up 4.1% in July), supported by a lower dollar and higher beef, fruit, domestic wheat and sugar prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015
United States Economic Update – 14 August 2015

United States Economic Update – 14 August 2015

17 August 2015

Economic growth strengthened in the June quarter and is set to remain above its long-term trend rate. The Fed is likely to raise rates this year. We expect this to start in September although it could easily be delayed. Subsequent rate hikes will occur at a slow pace by past standards.

United States Economic Update – 14 August 2015
The World on Two Pages – August 2015

The World on Two Pages – August 2015

13 August 2015

Our forecasts for global growth to stay around the 3¼% yoy and locally, our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month – 2.4% in 2014/15, 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.

The World on Two Pages – August 2015
India Monetary Policy Review – August  2015

India Monetary Policy Review – August 2015

11 August 2015

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the Repo rate 7.25%, as expected and the Government and the RBI are broadly in agreement regarding the future composition of the Monetary policy committee. The outlook for the remainder of the monsoon - and it impact on food prices, as well as the impact of the Fed’s anticipated rate rise are two critical determinants of future interest rate movements.

India Monetary Policy Review – August  2015
China Economic Update – August 2015

China Economic Update – August 2015

11 August 2015

China’s auto industry may be reaching its domestic limit, but is not yet ready to take on the world. The industry has experienced spectacular growth over the last decade – reflecting in part a broader evolution in China’s industrial sector over this period. At a national level, China has lost competitiveness to a range of emerging economies in Asia.

China Economic Update – August 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015

11 August 2015

Global growth is running below trend limiting the pace of expansion in commodity demand. Output has been growing faster recently in some of the big advanced economies (notably the US and UK) and the Greek crisis has had little impact on activity across the rest of the Euro-zone.

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015

11 August 2015

The business confidence index remains positive, both trading conditions and profitability remain relatively elevated and the trend has held up around average levels. Our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month, with growth of 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015
In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015

In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015

6 August 2015

NAB Agribusiness has revised its national wheat crop forecast up to 21.6 million tonnes for this season, with 23 million tonnes possible contingent on good spring rain in key wheat regions.

In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015
US Economic Update –  US GDP Q2 2015

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2015

3 August 2015

U.S. GDP growth accelerated in the June quarter to a rate of 0.6% qoq (2.3% annualised). Following revisions, the economy is now estimated to have grown in the first quarter.

US Economic Update –  US GDP Q2 2015
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – June 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – June 2015

3 August 2015

At -0.1% the latest seasonally adjusted nab online retail sales index shows sales growth was virtually flat in May, a significant slowdown on the 1.6% growth recorded in April. At 0.5%, the trend estimate for online retail sales was unchanged on the previous month.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – June 2015
NAB Quarterly SME Survey – June Quarter 2015

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – June Quarter 2015

30 July 2015

In the June quarter, SME quarterly business conditions and confidence rose rising by 2 points to +4 and +5 index points respectively. SME business conditions were superior in property, finance, business services, wholesale, manufacturing and transport sectors.

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – June Quarter 2015
Oil Market Update – July 2015

Oil Market Update – July 2015

27 July 2015

After recording gravity-defying price gains in April and May that are largely denominated by correlation with the USD, oil price movements have turned bearish in June and July-to- date.

Oil Market Update – July 2015
Quarterly Business Survey – June 20

Quarterly Business Survey – June 20

23 July 2015

The June quarter NAB Business Survey confirms the trend of gradually improving near-term indicators, but with a somewhat patchy longer term outlook. Business confidence strengthened in Q2 to +4 index points (from 0 points), which is its highest level since Q3 2014…

Quarterly Business Survey – June 20
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015

21 July 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index was steady in June. The neutral result largely reflects higher grain and protein prices offset by sharply lower fruit, vegetable and to a lesser degree sugar prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index: Q2 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index: Q2 2015

17 July 2015

Family relationships and safe communities critical to Aussies’ wellbeing. In an effort to better understand why Australians feel the way they do, NAB has been tracking Australia’s wellbeing (as measured by anxiety, life-satisfaction, happiness, and life-worth) since early-2013.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index: Q2 2015
The World on Two pages – July 2015

The World on Two pages – July 2015

15 July 2015

We have not changed our forecast for global growth this year (3.2%), but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.

The World on Two pages – July 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015

14 July 2015

Financial market volatility and the downside risks to global growth have been driven by the Chinese share market correction and the issues in Greece. Locally, lower interest rates and the AUD, strong housing prices and a post Budget kick in confidence appears to have driven better business outcomes.

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015

14 July 2015

Business confidence lifted again in the month of June – the highest level since September 2013. Confidence is now positive in all industries except mining and business conditions improved even more, in June – the highest level since last October.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015
China Economic Update – 7 July 2015

China Economic Update – 7 July 2015

7 July 2015

Opening the capital account will further internationalise the Yuan and monetary policy. This report is the second of two looking into capital account liberalisation in China. This report looks at the international implications of this reform.

China Economic Update – 7 July 2015
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015

2 July 2015

There were no signs of global growth accelerating in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and commodity prices have been mixed, partly in response to USD movements.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015
In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015

In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015

25 June 2015

Overall, we expect prices to generally rise in AUD terms for most of these commodities, with the exception of dairy and sugar, reflecting strong demand for beef in particular as well as the impact of a falling AUD.

In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2015

25 June 2015

Consumer anxiety rose despite falling concerns over government policy post the federal budget. More consumers are paying off debt and spending more on “essentials” however, fewer consumers cut back their spending on “non-essentials”.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2015
China Economic Update – 15 June 2015

China Economic Update – 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

An open capital account will end financial repression but still a slow path to reform. This report is the first of two looking into capital account liberalisation in China. This report looks at the domestic implications of this reform.

China Economic Update – 15 June 2015
China’s Economy at a Glance – 12 June 2015

China’s Economy at a Glance – 12 June 2015

16 June 2015

China’s partial economic indicators broadly stable in May, but weak enough for the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). In June, PBoC cut their economic growth forecast for 2015 from 7.1% to 7.0%. For now, our economic forecasts remain unchanged.

China’s Economy at a Glance – 12 June 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015

15 June 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index rebounded in May – up 4.2% in AUD terms and 3.4% in USD terms. The improvement comes off the back of higher beef, lamb, wool, fruit, vegetables and pulses prices, offsetting further declines in dairy.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015
Oil Market Update – June 2015

Oil Market Update – June 2015

12 June 2015

Oil prices rebounded sharply in April and May, benefiting from a confluence of factors: a stall in the USD rally, signs of slowing inventory build-up in the US, as well as unabated geopolitical volatility in the Middle East marked by Yemen civil unrests.

Oil Market Update – June 2015
The World on two pages – June 2015

The World on two pages – June 2015

10 June 2015

NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, followed by a modest upturn in 2016 (largely driven by the US). And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.

The World on two pages – June 2015
India GDP & Monetary Policy – June 2015

India GDP & Monetary Policy – June 2015

9 June 2015

The Indian economy expanded by 7.5% over the year to March 2015. Services, followed by Industry, were the best perfromers however agriculture contracted raising concerns about urban-rural divide. Industrial production activity is expected to gain momemtum in the second half of the year and NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.8% expansion in 2015, followed by 8% in 2016.

India GDP & Monetary Policy – June 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015

9 June 2015

There was no evidence of an acceleration in the pace of global growth in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and similarly mixed trends among the big emerging economies saw China slowing, India picking up and Brazil still very weak.

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015

9 June 2015

The recent Federal Budget and interest rate cut appears to have had a positive impact on business confidence – which moved up significantly in May - from +3 to +7 index points. This is the highest level of confidence since August 2014 and has helped to turn the trend more positive.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015

5 June 2015

April saw a renewed rise in beef and lamb prices, combined with stability across major grains, balanced against lower dairy, fruit and vegetable prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015
Gold Market Update – June 2015

Gold Market Update – June 2015

2 June 2015

In May, gold prices averaged at around US$1199 per ounce, largely unchanged compared to April. This reduction in volatility has largely been associated with contained macroeconomic volatility, as most major economies continue to be on a path of gradual recovery.

Gold Market Update – June 2015
Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015

2 June 2015

The changing composition of China’s growth model – towards services rather than heavy industry – means it is less commodity intensive than in the past.

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2015
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015

1 June 2015

Post-farmgate conditions were lower than expected despite the March and June quarters generally being seasonally the weakest quarters in the NAB Post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey.The weakness in the results likely reflects mixed climatic conditions.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015
Japanese Economic Update – May 2015

Japanese Economic Update – May 2015

26 May 2015

Japan's unemployment rate has fallen, it's weak currency benefited its Current account and led to a surge in the stock market and Japanese banks are stable, well-capitalised and moderately profitable.

Japanese Economic Update – May 2015
Highlights from NAB’s 2015 Federal Budget Breakfast

Highlights from NAB’s 2015 Federal Budget Breakfast

15 May 2015

Incentivising small business to grow is part of creating confidence and that’s good news for the economy. Hear from our panel of experts as they discuss the 2015 Federal Budget and the impact it will have on business and the economy.

Highlights from NAB’s 2015 Federal Budget Breakfast
Important Notice

Important Notice

13 May 2015

This information is intended to provide a high level overview of recent events in financial markets. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken by National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12004044937, AFSL230686) (NAB) in preparing the update, NAB shall not be liable, to the extent permissible by law, for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in […]

Important Notice
MLC 2015 Federal Budget Analysis

MLC 2015 Federal Budget Analysis

13 May 2015

Peter Hogan from MLC shares his analysis of the 2015 Federal Budget focusing on four key areas: personal taxation, superannuation, social security and small business.

MLC 2015 Federal Budget Analysis
2015 Federal Budget Briefing

2015 Federal Budget Briefing

13 May 2015

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2015 Federal Budget. The report outlines the key budget measures and explains the economic and fiscal outlook as a result of last night’s announcement.

2015 Federal Budget Briefing
Alan Oster’s Budget Verdict

Alan Oster’s Budget Verdict

13 May 2015

Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist NAB, provides a summary of the impact the budget will have on everyday Australians, business confidence and what he believes it will do for the Australian economy.

Alan Oster’s Budget Verdict
China Economic Update – 12 May 2015

China Economic Update – 12 May 2015

12 May 2015

Increasing productivity is one of China’s most critical challenges over the next few decades and education is a key factor in raising the average level of productivity.

China Economic Update – 12 May 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015

11 May 2015

Business confidence was unchanged in April. Until confidence lifts significantly it is difficult to see a sustained economic recovery developing – to date rate cuts have not appeared to do much and it will be interesting to see what this week’s Federal Budget will do.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

7 May 2015

ASX 300 business confidence fell further in Q1 2015 to remain well below the general economy. Sentiment is particularly weak among very large construction firms. Business conditions while still positive also fell, with trading, profitability and employment all lower.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2015

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2015

5 May 2015

The latest NAB online retail sales index shows sales experienced growth of 0.8% in March, seasonally adjusted. At 0.3%, the trend estimate for Online retail sales slowed relative to February, but remained positive. We estimate that online sales are now 8.0% higher compared to a year ago.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2015
US Economic Update – 30 April 2015

US Economic Update – 30 April 2015

30 April 2015

U.S. GDP growth slowed to a crawl in the March quarter. Details were weak, with the major support for growth coming from inventories. We expect the slowdown will be temporary and above trend growth to resume.

US Economic Update – 30 April 2015
Quarterly SME Survey – March Quarter 2015

Quarterly SME Survey – March Quarter 2015

30 April 2015

SMEs’ quarterly business conditions remained largely stable in the first quarter of 2015, with firms from all tiers showing broadly similar conditions from the previous quarter. SME trading and profitability conditions have deteriorated, offset by improved employment conditions overall.

Quarterly SME Survey – March Quarter 2015
In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015

In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015

27 April 2015

Cattle prices began to ease in February and continued to fall until late March, before trending upward in early April in line with higher 90CL export prices to the US. Overall, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator fell 4.6% (AUD) month on month to 424.7 AUc/kg.

In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015
Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

23 April 2015

Business confidence dropped back again in the first quarter of 2015, falling even further below the long run average level. This is consistent with a pull back in confidence in the February monthly survey, although this was completely unwound in March.

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015

21 April 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, fell 1.7% (AUD) and 3.3% (USD) in March, led by lower beef, lamb, fruit, vegetable and sugar prices. Partial data for April to date points to a recovery in beef and lamb prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q1 2015

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q1 2015

21 April 2015

NAB’s Residential Property Index rises as stronger house price growth offsets falling rents. Sentiment is up in all states except WA which remains deeply negative. Foreign buyers are more active in NSW (1 in 5 new sales) and are now at similar levels to Victoria.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q1 2015
China’s Economic Update – 15 April 2015

China’s Economic Update – 15 April 2015

15 April 2015

China’s economy expanded by 7.0% in Q1 2015, down from 7.3% in Q4 2014. This was the weakest rate of growth since March 2009 – when China was at its lowest point during the GFC. Our forecasts are unchanged – with China’s economy to grow by 7.1% in 2015 and 6.9% in 2016.

China’s Economic Update – 15 April 2015
The World on two pages – April 2015

The World on two pages – April 2015

15 April 2015

Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. We have fine tuned but not fundamentally changed our forecasts– 2014/15 2.3% and 3.0% in 2015/16. The non mining sector is still struggling to offset the impact on domestic demand.

The World on two pages – April 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015

14 April 2015

Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. While the Euro-zone and Japan are experiencing upturns, recent US data has disappointed. We have delayed the Fed starting till September (or later) and reduced US GDP in 2015 to 2.7%.

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015

14 April 2015

There were some tentative signs of improvement in the NAB Monthly Business Survey for March – with the post RBA cut fall in confidence reversed in March. Surprisingly, the lift was particularly pronounced in mining, although confidence is still lowest for this industry.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015
India Monetary Policy – April 2015

India Monetary Policy – April 2015

13 April 2015

The RBI held the benchmark Repo rate at 7.5% in its April Meeting which was largely anticipated, given the previously ‘front-loaded’ rate cuts in January and March. The RBI highlighted recent unseasonal rains had generated uncertainty and banks had not passed on the previous rate cuts.

India Monetary Policy – April 2015
US Economic Update – April 2015

US Economic Update – April 2015

10 April 2015

Economy has got off to a slow start in 2015. While we expect it to be a temporary slowdown, we have revised our 2015 forecast to 2.7% (previously 3.1%). If achieved, this would still represent an above trend rate of growth, and is consistent with further labour market improvement.

US Economic Update – April 2015
China Economic Update – 2 April 2015

China Economic Update – 2 April 2015

2 April 2015

China’s rapid industrialisation over the past few decades has provided considerable economic benefit for Australia – as a strong increase in trade and investment has increased the integration between the two countries, even before the recently negotiated free trade agreement.

China Economic Update – 2 April 2015
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2015

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2015

2 April 2015

Online retail experienced strong growth in February, with sales growing 1.7% compared to January (0.3%). This month’s NORSI trend growth result is much faster than that recorded in February 2014 (0.2%). We estimate that online sales are now 8.7% higher compared to a year ago.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2015
Australian States Handbook – April 2015

Australian States Handbook – April 2015

1 April 2015

The divergence between mining and non-mining state economies continues, although with mining investment now winding down it is the major non-mining economies that are starting to outperform. Budget positions improving but focus remains on reducing expenditure.

Australian States Handbook – April 2015
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q1 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q1 2015

1 April 2015

Consumer anxiety rises again in Q1’15 after a short-lived improvement in the previous quarter, as concern over government policy overtakes cost of living as the single biggest cause of consumer stress. With overall anxiety increasing, consumers are cutting back on many “non-essentials”.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q1 2015
The 2014 Australia-China Trade Report

The 2014 Australia-China Trade Report

25 March 2015

Julie Bishop launched the 2014 Australia-China Trade Report. Commissioned by the Australia China Business Council (ACBC), one of Australia’s most respected China engagement forums and sponsored by NAB, the report examines bilateral trade between the two countries.

The 2014 Australia-China Trade Report
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014

24 March 2015

The December quarter 2014 saw a rebound in post-farmgate agribusiness conditions, confidence and expected conditions at both 3 and 12 months. However forward orders declined and profitability remained negative. Overall, the sector experienced a more optimistic December quarter.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014
China Economic Update – 18 March 2015

China Economic Update – 18 March 2015

19 March 2015

In early February 2015, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50 basis points. This was the first broad based cut to the RRR since May 2012 and it could release around RMB 612 billion in liquidity. The PBoC was quick to downplay the significance of this change.

China Economic Update – 18 March 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015

17 March 2015

The Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, gained 2.1% (AUD) and 0.5% (USD) in February on the back of higher fruit, dairy, fibre and pulses prices, which offset mixed performance across grains and protein.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015
US Economic Update – March 2015

US Economic Update – March 2015

16 March 2015

Partial data have been soft recently, perhaps partly reflecting severe weather conditions. With December quarter 2014 GDP also revised down, we have lowered our forecast for 2015 GDP growth to a still solid 3.1% (was 3.3%). Unemployment continues to fall.

US Economic Update – March 2015
China Economic Briefing – 12 March 2015

China Economic Briefing – 12 March 2015

12 March 2015

The annual meeting of China’s parliament commenced in early March. From an economic perspective, the key announcement was the lowered growth target – to ‘about 7%’ from ‘about 7.5%’ in 2014. Our forecasts remain unchanged – at 7.1% in 2015 and 6.9% in 2016

China Economic Briefing – 12 March 2015
The World on two pages – March 2015

The World on two pages – March 2015

11 March 2015

Global growth remains around 3%. Weaker prices for oil and other commodities will benefit spending power in most big advanced economies as well as in China. The domestic economy, in early 2015, has not gained momentum with another rate cut expected in the coming months.

The World on two pages – March 2015
India Budget and Economic Brief – March 2015

India Budget and Economic Brief – March 2015

10 March 2015

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley released his first full-year Budget on the 28th of February, 2015. The pace of fiscal consolidation was pushed back, with the 3% Deficit target now likely. Instead, there was a strong push for infrastructure spending.

India Budget and Economic Brief – March 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015

10 March 2015

Global growth remains around 3% and, although the business surveys show a lift in sentiment in key advanced economies, there is still no clear evidence that the expected upturn in global growth to 3½% by the end of the year has commenced. Locally, we have not changed near term forecasts

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015
Monthly Business Survey – February 2015

Monthly Business Survey – February 2015

10 March 2015

The RBA’s 25bp cut to interest rates in February did not appear to have the desired effect on firms ‘animal spirits’, with confidence actually deteriorating in the month. The index is now at its lowest level since before the Federal election in 2013 and is well below the long run average.

Monthly Business Survey – February 2015
In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015

In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015

3 March 2015

Forecast production across summer crops remains divergent. Cotton is likely to see a significant fall in price year on year, as changes to Chinese subsidy arrangements and cheaper synthetic fibres eat into demand, outweighing the impact of reduced Australian supply.

In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

26 February 2015

Big business in Australia is losing confidence, affecting medium-term growth and capital expenditure plans. Overall confidence among larger firms has now fallen below its long-term average and is weaker than for smaller companies and the broader economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014
China Economic Briefing – 23 February 2015

China Economic Briefing – 23 February 2015

23 February 2015

Due to the Chinese New Year holiday period, there are limited partial economic indicators for January each year. That said, the data available points to a soft start – PMI measures are weak, imports slowed, inflation continues to soften and credit growth contracted.

China Economic Briefing – 23 February 2015
Quarterly SME Survey – December Quarter 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – December Quarter 2014

19 February 2015

After reaching the highest levels since 2009 in the September quarter, SMEs’ quarterly business conditions fell in the December quarter for the first time since Q4 2013. Firms from all tiers: low/micro, mid and high, showed consistent declines in their overall business conditions.

Quarterly SME Survey – December Quarter 2014
US Economic Update – February 2015

US Economic Update – February 2015

16 February 2015

Following two strong quarters, US GDP growth decelerated in the December quarter to a still solid 2.6% qoq (annualised). The large fall in oil prices and the rise in the dollar are producing both winners and losers. Annual labour force growth in January matched civilian population growth.

US Economic Update – February 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015

16 February 2015

2015 brings an expanded Rural Commodities Index, which now includes 28 commodities, up from eight. The Index increased 5.6% in January in AUD terms, as sharply higher beef prices - and to a lesser extent higher lamb, dairy and vegetable prices - offset mixed performance across grains.

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015
Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015

13 February 2015

Based on adjusted World Steel data, global steel production rose by 3.5% in 2014 to total 1.64 billion tonnes. Prices for metallurgical coal have remained comparatively stable since March 2014. Spot prices for thermal coal have continued to drift lower.

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2015
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015

13 February 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. This has been reflected in lower prices for a number of industrial commodities. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015
China Economic Update – 12 February 2015

China Economic Update – 12 February 2015

12 February 2015

In 2014, China’s crude oil imports came to US$228 billion – accounting for almost 19% of the country’s total imports by value and around 2.5% of total GDP. Sustained lower oil prices will therefore reduce China’s financial outflows, providing a significant boost to the economy.

China Economic Update – 12 February 2015
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2014

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2014

11 February 2015

Sentiment in commercial property markets softened in Q4 after September’s promising gains. Retail sentiment (and to a lesser extent industrial) buck the trend, offset by falls in CBD hotels and office. Forward indicators are painting a mixed picture of the market.

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2014
Monthly Business Survey – January 2015

Monthly Business Survey – January 2015

10 February 2015

The latest survey shows that business confidence edged up a little, but it's still below long run averages. Confidence remains very weak in mining, consistent with lower commodity prices, but multi-year lows for the AUD likely contributed to a considerable improvement from last month.

Monthly Business Survey – January 2015
Oil Market Update – February 2015

Oil Market Update – February 2015

6 February 2015

After the drastic falls towards the end of 2014, oil indexes started to exhibit some tentative signs of stabilisation since mid-January. Prices traded mainly around mid to high USD40s a barrel in the second half of the month, before breaking above USD50s in the first week of February.

Oil Market Update – February 2015
RBA: “On balance” cuts 25bps to 2.25%

RBA: “On balance” cuts 25bps to 2.25%

4 February 2015

The RBA’s Board has made the decision to reduce rates earlier than NAB expected, but for similar reasons we expected a modest rate reduction in March. It suggests growth will be below trend for somewhat longer – and the unemployment rate will peak a little higher – than earlier expected.

RBA: “On balance” cuts 25bps to 2.25%
Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

4 February 2015

Business confidence eased back in Q4, dropping below the long run average level. Sentiment and business conditions are generally consistent with a ‘patchwork’ economy. Outside of construction and services, conditions remain soft in all other industries.

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2014

4 February 2015

Online retail experienced a modest growth in December, with sales growing 0.1% compared to November (-0.3%), and 8.9% higher compared to a year ago. In dollar terms, we estimate Australians spent $16.4 billion on online retail in the 12 months to December 2014.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2014
US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2014

US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2014

2 February 2015

U.S. GDP growth decelerated in the December quarter to a still solid 0.65% qoq (2.6% on an annualised basis). This suggests that the economy is growing at an above long-term trend rate. As a result, unutilised capacity in the economy continues to decline.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2014
In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook

In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook

29 January 2015

Combined with strong industry fundamentals, Queensland saw significant rainfall during December 2014 and January 2015. In response, cattle prices have risen substantially as producers look to restock. However, despite this optimism, a number of challenges remain.

In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook
Biggest Issues Facing Australia Today: Special Report

Biggest Issues Facing Australia Today: Special Report

29 January 2015

NAB has released its first annual pulse check on the big issues facing Australia today. Important concerns include cost of living, access to healthcare, employment, the economy and terrorism/security concerns, while indigenous issues, infrastructure and transport and taxation are lowest.

Biggest Issues Facing Australia Today: Special Report
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q4 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q4 2014

29 January 2015

The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell slightly to 63 points in Q4 2014 (63.8 in Q3). Wellbeing was rated lower for all questions, especially “not anxious yesterday” which fell to its lowest level since the survey started. Wellbeing rated highest in Queensland and lowest in Victoria.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q4 2014
Emerging Commodities: Quinoa

Emerging Commodities: Quinoa

29 January 2015

Since 2008, global quinoa consumption has rapidly increased. In Australia, planting has been concentrated largely in Western Australia. While there are potential benefits from diversification for wheat producers, concerns remain around reliability of yield, weed control and marketing.

Emerging Commodities: Quinoa
The World on two pages – January 2015

The World on two pages – January 2015

28 January 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions (expansion in US, UK, India and China, weakness in Euro-zone, Japan, Latin America). Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.

The World on two pages – January 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015

27 January 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries. Unemployment to continue to deteriorate but peak lower (6.6%) and later (Q4 2015).

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015
Monthly Business Survey – December 2014

Monthly Business Survey – December 2014

27 January 2015

The survey again shows a patchwork economy with little-to-no momentum building. In December, conditions eased for the second successive month after October’s surprisingly strong result so they're now a touch below the long run average.

Monthly Business Survey – December 2014
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2014

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2014

21 January 2015

NAB Residential Property Index falls as house price expectations pared back and rents weaken. Sentiment softer in all states (and still deeply negative in WA). Almost 10% of all property is being purchased by first home buyers as an “investment”.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2014
China Economic Briefing – 20 January 2015

China Economic Briefing – 20 January 2015

20 January 2015

China’s economy continues on its gradual transition, away from a manufacturing hub towards a modern, consumption based economy. One signal of this trend is the increasing share of China’s services sector (tertiary industries), averaging 48% of GDP in 2014 (up from 47% in 2013).

China Economic Briefing – 20 January 2015
US Economic Update – January 2015

US Economic Update – January 2015

16 January 2015

The US economy is currently enjoying a strong patch of growth. Small business confidence is at a recovery high, consumer confidence continues to increase, and household incomes - already benefiting from strong employment growth - are being further boosted by the fall in oil prices.

US Economic Update – January 2015
China Economic Update – 15 January 2015

China Economic Update – 15 January 2015

15 January 2015

In October 2014, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that China had overtaken the United States to become the world’s largest economy. This was the first time since 1872 that the US was not considered the world’s largest economy, when it overtook the United Kingdom.

China Economic Update – 15 January 2015
Japanese Economic Update – January 2015

Japanese Economic Update – January 2015

14 January 2015

Japan is in the midst of major demographic changes, which have had significant implications for its economy and will continue to do so. Japan’s population is already declining, and with its society also ageing the drag on the workforce is potentially even greater.

Japanese Economic Update – January 2015
Funding Australia’s infrastructure future

Funding Australia’s infrastructure future

9 January 2015

Infrastructure Partnerships Australia estimates that $700 billion of funding is needed over the next decade to finance the long term infrastructure investments – the nation building – we need to secure our future. We look at the building blocks that are falling into place.

Funding Australia’s infrastructure future
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2014

5 January 2015

The Index fell for the second straight quarter, with lower levels of concern reported across all categories. According to NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster, the cost of living and government policy continue to be the single biggest causes of anxiety for Australians.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2014
China Economic Briefing – 12 December 2014

China Economic Briefing – 12 December 2014

15 December 2014

There is a growing expectation that China’s Central Economic Work Conference will lower China’s economic growth target for 2015 – down from this year’s ‘about 7.5%’ to 7.0% – however this change may not be officially announced until the National People’s Congress meets next March.

China Economic Briefing – 12 December 2014
US Economic Update – December 2014

US Economic Update – December 2014

10 December 2014

GDP growth is expected to strengthen in 2015 to 3.0%, from 2.3% in 2014. This reflects rising business and consumer confidence, improving household balance sheets, a strengthening labour market, solid investment conditions, declines in oil prices and a fading headwind from fiscal policy.

US Economic Update – December 2014
The World on two pages – December 2014

The World on two pages – December 2014

10 December 2014

Global growth remained around 3% yoy in Q3, sightly below trend but it is expected to pick-up to 3½% in 2015 and 2016. Major differences in the strength of economic activity persist between regions with the US, India and China accounting for almost 2 ppts of forecast global growth.

The World on two pages – December 2014
China Economic Update – December 2014

China Economic Update – December 2014

10 December 2014

In late November, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) surprised markets with cuts to benchmark interest rates. These changes were the first in over two years – the PBoC had held rates stable since early July 2012.

China Economic Update – December 2014
Monthly Business Survey – November 2014

Monthly Business Survey – November 2014

9 December 2014

Last months spike in business conditions was again short-lived, pulling back towards long run average levels in November. Despite the drop, the overall trend is still looking much better than 12-18 months prior, while levels of capacity utilisation have continued to improve.

Monthly Business Survey – November 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014

9 December 2014

Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies underpin faster growth of 3½% in 2015 and 2016.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014
India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2014

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2014

5 December 2014

The Indian economy expanded by 5.3% over the year to the September quarter. It's the second successive quarter of above-5% growth, and reflects a gradual upturn in the Indian economy. Financial services and Community services were the best performing sectors.

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2014
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2014

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2014

3 December 2014

Australia’s online retail spending increased to $16.19 billion for the year to October 2014, or by 11.9% annually. It now represents around 6.8% of traditional retail spending. The share of domestic spending continues to edge higher, now controlling 75.2% of total online spending.

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2014
Corporate Finance Insights – November 2014

Corporate Finance Insights – November 2014

26 November 2014

This report uses our expertise from across a range of industry sectors. In this edition, we present a compilation of articles with the underlying theme on change, and we ask NAB’s Chief Financial Officer for his view of the barriers and challenges for the Australian business landscape.

Corporate Finance Insights – November 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014

25 November 2014

General Manager of NAB Agribusiness, Khan Horne says the falling Australian dollar is a real boost for agriculture, and combined with the recent announcement of the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement, conditions for 2015 are looking positive for agricultural exporters.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014
China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights

20 November 2014

The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) offers considerable potential for Australian agricultural and services firms as a result of their improved market access. Dairy, meat and horticulture stand to gain significantly while most resource exports will end up having duty free access.

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights
East Asian Emerging Market Economies – November 2014

East Asian Emerging Market Economies – November 2014

17 November 2014

Moderate sub-trend growth continues across the emerging market economies of East Asia (S Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, HK and Philippines). Growth in the region to increase gradually through the next couple of years.

East Asian Emerging Market Economies – November 2014
China Economic Comment – November 2014

China Economic Comment – November 2014

17 November 2014

Twelve months ago, China’s Government announced its reform agenda, following on from the Third Plenum. So far, progress on these reforms has been limited, primarily in social policies such as loosening the Hukou system – which we have argued could go further – and the One Child Policy.

China Economic Comment – November 2014
US Economic Update – November 2014

US Economic Update – November 2014

14 November 2014

The U.S. economy is growing at an above trend pace, with strong jobs growth. We expect the Fed to start raising rates in mid-2015. While there are signs wages growth is starting to strengthen, low inflation remains the main risk that may delay rate hikes.

US Economic Update – November 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014

14 November 2014

Divergent economic conditions around the world are having a net negative impact on commodity prices. Chinese GDP growth slowed to its lowest pace since early 2009, while parts of the economy that are key to industrial commodities remain comparatively weak.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014
China Economic Briefing – 13 November 2014

China Economic Briefing – 13 November 2014

14 November 2014

The cooler economic conditions experienced in the third quarter could continue into Q4 and further into 2015, reflecting the continued reluctance of Chinese policy makers to implement broad based stimulus. China’s industrial production growth also slowed slightly in October.

China Economic Briefing – 13 November 2014
The World on two pages – November 2014

The World on two pages – November 2014

12 November 2014

Global growth remains moderate and sub-trend with big variations between key economies. China and North America represent around one-third of global GDP but they currently account for around half of global growth.

The World on two pages – November 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014

11 November 2014

Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between the major economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies should underpin.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014
Monthly Business Survey – October 2014

Monthly Business Survey – October 2014

11 November 2014

Clearly the most surprising feature of the Survey was the sharp jump in business conditions in October (the largest monthly increase in the history of the survey). The improvement driven by sales and profits was relatively broad based –unlike the (short-lived) jump in July.

Monthly Business Survey – October 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014

10 November 2014

China’s third quarter National Accounts showed the economy grew by its slowest rate since March 2009. From a bulk commodity perspective, key parts of China’s economy remain comparatively weak. Industrial production has slowed in recent months.

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2014
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014

7 November 2014

Australians are giving more to charity than ever before, with the average annual donation size for all charities increasing by 3.6 per cent ($11) to $315 per donor. Overall charitable giving growth also continues an upward trend, increasing by 6.4 per cent in the 12 months to August 2014.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014
US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2014

US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2014

6 November 2014

GDP grew by 3.5% qoq (annualised rate) in the September quarter, a strong above trend result. While we expect that growth may slow in the December quarter, it should still be consistent with around 3% annualised growth in the second half of 2014.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014

30 October 2014

The latest Post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey shows that while the sector experienced a difficult September quarter, expected conditions for the coming 12 months remain in positive territory at +5.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2014

30 October 2014

SME business confidence eased slightly, continuing the trend decline from the peaks seen around last year’s Federal election. While this result is consistent with the ongoing sluggishness of demand in the domestic economy (excluding exports)…

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2014
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

30 October 2014

ASX 300 business confidence gained momentum in the September quarter, surpassing the broader economy. Conditions were broadly unchanged - trading and profitability were stronger, however the slight improvement was offset by deteriorating employment…

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2014

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2014

29 October 2014

Overall sentiment in Australian commercial property markets turns positive for the first time since early-2011, but WA continues to weaken. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said "NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose to +2 points in Q3, its first positive read since March 2011.”

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

27 October 2014

Business confidence was unchanged in Q3, remaining close to the long run average levels. However, our monthly survey shows that the momentum has turned, with confidence easing steadily over the quarter.

Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014
MLC Quarterly Australian Wealth Sentiment Survey – Q3 2014

MLC Quarterly Australian Wealth Sentiment Survey – Q3 2014

23 October 2014

Nearly half of Australians are undecided on whether they will have to sell the family home to fund their retirement, the latest MLC Wealth Sentiment Survey has found. The quarterly survey has found 11% of Australians already plan to sell the family home to fund their retirement…

MLC Quarterly Australian Wealth Sentiment Survey – Q3 2014
China Economic Update – 22 October 2014

China Economic Update – 22 October 2014

23 October 2014

China’s latest economic data was a mixed bag – with many measures comparatively negative (against the trends of recent years) but stronger than somewhat pessimistic market expectations. While year-on-year GDP growth was at a five year low, the growth rate remaining above 7% will likely…

China Economic Update – 22 October 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014

23 October 2014

The overall price outlook for rural commodities stabilised somewhat in September and early October as a falling AUD blunted the impact of lower global prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014
Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices

Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices

17 October 2014

Residential electricity prices consist of wholesale, network, environmental policies (such as the Renewable Energy Target), and retail costs and margins. In Q3, wholesale costs were affected by the removal of the carbon tax as well as changes to regulated prices in some States.

Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2014

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2014

15 October 2014

NAB Residential Property Index unchanged with stronger house price expectations offset by weaker rental prospects. Sentiment continues to soften in WA (an all time low). Big pick-up in foreign buying activity in new property (especially VIC) and tipped to rise further.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2014
The World on two pages – October 2014

The World on two pages – October 2014

15 October 2014

Global growth was around 3% in the first half of 2014, below trend and with marked variations in performance between major economies. North America continues to perform strongly with solid growth in both the US and Canada.

The World on two pages – October 2014
China Economic Comment – October 2014

China Economic Comment – October 2014

15 October 2014

China’s changing healthcare needs require major changes to the system to avoid economic pain. The population is ageing and life expectancy is rising. With these two trends, demand for healthcare services is set to increase – particularly given the growing incidence of non-communicable diseases.

China Economic Comment – October 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014

14 October 2014

Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with GDP expanding by a sub-trend 3% yoy and concern over weakness in Japan and the Euro-zone offsetting solid growth in the US and UK. Chinese forecasts unchanged.

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014
Monthly Business Survey – September 2014

Monthly Business Survey – September 2014

14 October 2014

Business confidence lost ground in September –lowest level since pre election - in the face of a persistently soft operating environment for many firms. Forward orders remained soft, prompting de-stocking and competitive pricing which appears to have weighed on profitability.

Monthly Business Survey – September 2014
India Monetary Policy – October 2014

India Monetary Policy – October 2014

10 October 2014

The RBI held the policy Repo rate at 8% in its latest meeting – as broadly anticipated. The focus on meeting the 6% headline CPI outcome in January 2016 was reiterated.

India Monetary Policy – October 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014

9 October 2014

Recent global economic data and less favourable supply fundamentals have put downward pressure on many commodity prices. China, Europe and Japan were softer, while the U.S recovery appears to be gaining traction (US GDP grew at its fastest pace since 2011)…

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014
US Economic Update – October 2014

US Economic Update – October 2014

8 October 2014

Indicators point to above trend growth in the September quarter of just over 3% qoq. Jobs growth was strong in September and the unemployment rate fell below 6% for the first time in over six years. Inflationary pressures have eased in recent months.

US Economic Update – October 2014
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q3 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q3 2014

2 October 2014

The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index rose to 63.8 points in Q3 2014 (61.7 in Q2 2014). Wellbeing was rated higher for all measures, with the biggest improvements related to life satisfaction, worthwhile life and happiness.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q3 2014
Oil Market Update – September 2014

Oil Market Update – September 2014

2 October 2014

Since our last Quarterly Oil Market Update in June 2014, global crude oil prices have fallen sharply amid ample supply and weak demand combined with an increasing confidence that turmoil in Iraq is unlikely to disrupt supplies.

Oil Market Update – September 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014

29 September 2014

The overall outlook for rural commodities deteriorated in August and September on account of a weak finish to winter rains in many areas combined with forecasts of abundant global grain supplies and lower prices for major agricultural commodities.

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014
Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)

Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)

29 September 2014

“The index shows that Australia’s engagement with Asia is dominated by product imports and not surprisingly, our engagement is clearly strongest with China across all sizes of business. But, it is higher for SMEs than the ASX 300” said Alan Oster.

Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)
China Economic Comment – September 2014

China Economic Comment – September 2014

22 September 2014

Conditions in China’s real estate sector have slowed considerably across 2014. The sector has been a key contributor to economic growth in recent years and a slowing trend will impose greater pressure on other parts of the economy to provide growth momentum, particularly if the Government aims to maintain its current growth target.

China Economic Comment – September 2014
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2014

18 September 2014

Consumer anxiety moderates after the post budget jump, but some concerns remain elevated. The NAB Consumer Anxiety Index fell to 62.3 points in Q3 (64.5 points in Q2), led by a notable reduction in concern over the ability to fund retirement, cost of living and job security.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014

16 September 2014

Global economic data sent divergent signals to commodity markets in August. China’s outlook gave less comfort in comparison to the better US data. There was more movement in financial markets during the month. Meanwhile further sanctions on Russia were put on hold.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014
China Economic Update – 15 September 2014

China Economic Update – 15 September 2014

16 September 2014

Weaker than expected industrial production data is likely to generate headlines this month. However these results are not as negative as they may seem – reflecting in part the impact of stimulus in Q3 2013.

China Economic Update – 15 September 2014
Gold Market Update – August 2014

Gold Market Update – August 2014

12 September 2014

Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US, and some recent…

Gold Market Update – August 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014

11 September 2014

Having fallen for much of the year, wholesale gas prices in the United States and Europe have begun to edge up slightly since July. With the northern summer now coming to a close, mild weather should keep prices in check until the onset of colder winter conditions sees gas use increase.

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014
The World on two pages – September 2014

The World on two pages – September 2014

11 September 2014

Weakness in Japan, stagnation in the Euro-zone and a hard landing in Latin America have resulted in a slowdown in the pace of global growth through the first half of 2014. World GDP growth reached 3.4% yoy in late 2013, it slowed to 3.1% yoy in March qtr 2014 and 2.9% yoy in June qtr.

The World on two pages – September 2014
US Economic Update – September 2014

US Economic Update – September 2014

11 September 2014

Indicators remain generally positive, consistent with our forecast of solid, above trend, growth of 3.0% qoq (annualised) in the September quarter. While August’s employment gain (142,000) was below expectations, the recovery in the labour market remains on track.

US Economic Update – September 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014

9 September 2014

Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with stagnation in the Euro-zone sparking deflationary concern and ECB action while Japanese demand is still struggling to recover from April’s tax rise.

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014
Monthly Business Survey – August 2014

Monthly Business Survey – August 2014

9 September 2014

Business confidence remains resilient despite easing a little in August, supported by positive forward orders, subdued cost pressures and more stable consumer confidence. Positive business conditions are also helping despite falling back in the month.

Monthly Business Survey – August 2014
Euro-zone update

Euro-zone update

9 September 2014

The European Central Bank has cut its key policy lending rate to only 5 bps, it's progressing its planned schemes for asset purchases and targeted lending to banks and has hinted that it could increase its balance sheet by around €1 Trillion, taking it back to its early 2012 size.

Euro-zone update
India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2014

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2014

4 September 2014

The Indian economy expanded by 5.7% in the June quarter, the fastest pace in over 2 years. By sector, Services (Financial & Community services) and Industry were better performing, while Agriculture eased due to weaker monsoon conditions.

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2014
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2014

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2014

3 September 2014

Australia’s online retail spending continues to increase following a period of more subdued growth and is now valued at around $15.6 billion for the year to July 2014. This represents annual growth of 8.6%, placing online at around 6.6% of traditional retail spending.

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2014
Australian Business Diversity Index – Q2 2014

Australian Business Diversity Index – Q2 2014

29 August 2014

The inaugural NAB Australian Business Diversity Index is a new addition to NAB’s Quarterly Business Survey, and it aims to help Australian industries and businesses better understand diversity performance, in an effort to drive change.

Australian Business Diversity Index – Q2 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014

29 August 2014

Australian beef prices are forecast to increase 3.5 per cent in 2014-15 on the back of a 4 per cent fall in production as producers rebuild herds, according to the latest NAB Agribusiness Rural Commodities Wrap.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014
Australian States Handbook 2014

Australian States Handbook 2014

22 August 2014

Australia’s Federal system of Government makes State Governments a critical part of the overall fiscal and economic performance of Australia. This handbook is intended to provide a comprehensive update and reference tool on both the economies and fiscal finances for each State.

Australian States Handbook 2014
Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture

Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture

15 August 2014

The direct impact to Australian agricultural producers of the Russian Government’s embargo on most food imports is likely to be relatively small. However the secondary impacts are likely to be of greater concern for Australian producers.

Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture
Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014

13 August 2014

Weak retail trade and net exports point to soft GDP growth in Q2. Headwinds remain, but business conditions jumped to four year high, while, business confidence, orders and capacity utilisation all looking better. We have trimmed our global forecasts.

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014
MLC Quarterly Australian Wealth Sentiment Survey Q2 2014

MLC Quarterly Australian Wealth Sentiment Survey Q2 2014

12 August 2014

Taking a career break to raise kids has been identified as the most significant barrier to having sufficient retirement savings and majority of survey participants (68%) have given little consideration to a major future financial setback, according to the latest survey findings.

MLC Quarterly Australian Wealth Sentiment Survey Q2 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014

12 August 2014

Global growth remains moderate but monthly trade and industrial growth continues to slow. Economic conditions mixed between regions with solid upturns in the UK and US, weakness in Japan and signs of slowing in the Euro-zone. Emerging market economies still driving most global growth

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014
NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014

12 August 2014

Business confidence again surprised on the upside, supported by better business conditions (largely reflecting sales and profits) and a surge in retailer confidence. Firms still unfazed about the Budget (for now). Conditions jumped to a four year high

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014
India Monetary Policy – August 2014

India Monetary Policy – August 2014

12 August 2014

The RBI held the policy Repo rate at 8% in its latest meeting – as broadly anticipated. The Statutory Liquidity Rate was cut by 50bp to 22% to enable banks to free up capital for lending, and to boost their liquidity coverage.

India Monetary Policy – August 2014
US Economic Update – August 2014

US Economic Update – August 2014

12 August 2014

GDP bounced back strongly in the June quarter, growing at an annualised 4.0% rate. Early indicators for the September quarter are positive. Tapering of asset purchases under QE is continuing and we expect the end of the program to be announced after the Fed’s October meeting.

US Economic Update – August 2014
Japanese Economic Update – August 2014

Japanese Economic Update – August 2014

12 August 2014

The rise in the consumption tax rate has had the expected impact on the economy. Spending was pulled into the pre-tax months and has fallen sharply since the rate rose from 5% to 8% on April 1st. Although Japanese firms have told the central bank that the consequences of the tax rise

Japanese Economic Update – August 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014

11 August 2014

Commodity prices remained divergent in July, reflecting broadly positive but somewhat mixed economic data as well as flaring geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Crude prices fell in early July as concerns about a disruption to Iraqi oil supplies dissipated.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014
Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014

7 August 2014

Economic trends in China –the key consumer for bulk commodities –are mixed, with stabilising trends in the industrial sector (having slowed across Q1) in contrast to a slowing trend in the real estate sector (a major consumer of steel). Global steel production has continued to increase.

Bulk Commodities Update – July 2014
Base Metals Market Update – July 2014

Base Metals Market Update – July 2014

6 August 2014

On the demand side, industrial activity has improved in 2014, but recent indicators have been mixed. In China, the industrial sector appears to have stabilised following signs of moderation in recent months. Mini stimulus measures may have assisted the improvement.

Base Metals Market Update – July 2014
US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2014

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2014

4 August 2014

GDP bounced back strongly in the June quarter, growing by a 4.0% annualised rate. The improvement was broad based and revisions to recent quarters were also positive. Early indicators for the September quarter are positive. We expect solid growth over the rest of the year.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2014

31 July 2014

Online retail showed further encouraging signs of growth in June, to be 0.9% higher compared to May, and 9.5% higher compared to a year ago. On the other hand, ABS data showed negative comparable sales growth at traditional retailers in May, to be 0.3% lower than April

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2014
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q2, 2014

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q2, 2014

30 July 2014

NAB Commercial Property Index fell -3 to -6 points in Q2 and continues to track below business confidence. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said: “Sentiment was weaker in all market segments, except CBD hotels, and also negative in all states, especially in WA.”

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q2, 2014
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

29 July 2014

Business confidence among Australia’s largest firms dropped significantly – from a position of above average confidence relative to the broader economy to marginally below. Businesses are reacting to the subdued domestic demand outlook.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014

28 July 2014

The 2014-15 Australian wheat season is off to a good start in most growing areas following autumn rain, and domestic prices are at a premium to international levels due to concerns about the impact of a dry spring.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014
India Budget 2014-15

India Budget 2014-15

25 July 2014

India’s new Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, delivered his maiden Budget on the 10th of July. It was a good document, albeit not a ‘game changer’, and needs to be followed up with further action and implementation. There were positives for consumers, infrastructure spending, real estate.

India Budget 2014-15
Quarterly SME Survey – June 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2014

24 July 2014

SME business confidence eased again in the June quarter, but is holding up against heightened consumer anxiety with the support of positive sentiment in property and construction. Conditions rose slightly, but are still at levels suggesting sub-trend growth.

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2014
China Economic Comment – July 2014

China Economic Comment – July 2014

23 July 2014

The growth in China’s economy over the past thirty years has been extremely impressive, overtaking Japan in 2009 to become the world’s second largest economy. However when measured on a per capita basis, China’s economy still remains comparatively small – within the ‘middle income’ band.

China Economic Comment – July 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014

22 July 2014

The latest National Australia Bank (NAB) post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey reports that the sector remains overwhelmingly optimistic about business conditions over the next 12 months, despite the index falling in the June quarter.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014
China Economic Update – 17 July 2014

China Economic Update – 17 July 2014

18 July 2014

In late June, China’s politburo agreed to fiscal and taxation reforms that were outlined at last year’s Third Plenum, setting a deadline for implementation at the end of 2016. These reforms should provide greater transparency and predictability of local government revenues.

China Economic Update – 17 July 2014
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q2 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q2 2014

18 July 2014

Australian wellbeing falls to its lowest level since the survey began. Anxiety is still the biggest detractor of overall wellbeing. A “wellbeing gap” has emerged between the highest and lowest income earners.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q2 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

17 July 2014

Business confidence eased a touch, but remains at relatively resilient levels post-budget. Business conditions improved marginally as underperforming industries improve. Forward indicators point to further modest improvement over coming months.

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2014

16 July 2014

Consumer anxiety spikes post the Federal Government’s budget, with low income earners clearly most concerned. The NAB Consumer Anxiety Index rose to 64.5 points in Q2 (61.7 points in Q1) - its highest level since the survey began in Q1’13.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2014
Canada Economic Update – July 2014

Canada Economic Update – July 2014

15 July 2014

The Canadian economy recorded a moderate 0.3% increase during the March quarter, 2014, impacted by weather related disruptions. Group Economics is forecasting a 2.3% expansion in 2014, followed by a somewhat quicker 2.5% in 2015

Canada Economic Update – July 2014
US Economic Update – July 2014

US Economic Update – July 2014

15 July 2014

The large fall in March quarter GDP is not matched by other indicators. Data for June quarter suggest growth will resume. Inflation has strengthened in recent months.

US Economic Update – July 2014
US GDP Q1 2014 Update

US GDP Q1 2014 Update

11 July 2014

US GDP is now estimated to have declined by a recession like 2.9% qoq (annualized rate) in the March quarter. However, we still think the March quarter weakness is a one-off. Other indicators do not point to an economic downturn.

US GDP Q1 2014 Update
Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014

10 July 2014

After rising through 2013, the main business surveys have gone sideways in 2014 and the pace of global growth has slipped slightly. We have lowered our global GDP forecasts for 2014 from 3.4% to 3.2%.

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014

8 July 2014

Moderate global growth continues after early 2014’s slowing, resulting in slightly lower growth forecasts in 2014 but nearer trend in out years. Mixed picture among advanced economies as US & Euro-zone growth disappoints expectations but UK expansion stays solid...

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014
Monthly Business Survey – June 2014

Monthly Business Survey – June 2014

8 July 2014

Business confidence recorded an unexpected increase in the month, with firms apparently shrugging off the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence that followed May’s Federal budget. Firms are sticking to their expectation for stronger activity despite business conditions remaining

Monthly Business Survey – June 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014

7 July 2014

The relative price stability that characterised oil, in particular Brent, in the first half of 2014 has been shaken of late by unexpectedly severe sectarian turmoil in Iraq. However, with Iraqi exports largely unaffected, prices have now eased somewhat.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2014

2 July 2014

Online retail sales growth rebounded in May, after a small decline in April. Online spending totalled $15.3 billion in the past year. Groceries & Liquor and Electronic Games & Toys continued to strengthen while Daily Deals and Personal & Recreational Goods experienced negative growth

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2014
Oil Market Update – June 2014

Oil Market Update – June 2014

1 July 2014

The relative price stability that characterised Brent and Tapis in the first half of 2014 has been shaken of late by unexpectedly severe sectarian turmoil in Iraq. After Mosul fell on 10 June, Brent jumped 4% in a week and broke through $115 per barrel by 19 June.

Oil Market Update – June 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014

24 June 2014

Supported by still-low bond yields and more positive economic data from China and the US, global equity markets maintained their upward trend in May to close higher in general. However, commodities markets were more mixed.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014
China Economic Comment – June 2014

China Economic Comment – June 2014

24 June 2014

As China’s economy has grown over the past decade, so too has China’s overseas investment. This has become a highly controversial issue in a number of countries, in part due to the difficulties faced by firms and individuals when attempting to invest in China

China Economic Comment – June 2014
East Asian Emerging Market Economies – June 2014

East Asian Emerging Market Economies – June 2014

23 June 2014

Moderate sub-trend growth continues across the emerging market economies of East Asia (S Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, HK and Philippines). Lack-lustre growth in world trade has dampened activity in this export-oriented region.

East Asian Emerging Market Economies – June 2014
China Economic Update – 16 June 2014

China Economic Update – 16 June 2014

19 June 2014

Partial economic indicators suggest that China’s economy has stabilised in recent months. These trends remain in line with our expectations, meaning that our forecasts for economic growth remain unchanged at 7.3% in 2014 and 7% in 2015.

China Economic Update – 16 June 2014
US Economic Update – June 2014

US Economic Update – June 2014

19 June 2014

The economy is now estimated to have gone backwards in the March quarter. However, indicators point to a bounce back in the June quarter. Recovery expected to continue over the rest of 2014 and into 2015. We expect growth of around 2¼% this year and 3% in 2015.

US Economic Update – June 2014
Discover the opportunities within emerging Asian economies

Discover the opportunities within emerging Asian economies

17 June 2014

While China remains our biggest trading partner, other emerging Asian nations – including ASEAN, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan – are critical sources of imports and exports for Aussie SMEs. Understanding these regional economies and their distinct differences is critical.

Discover the opportunities within emerging Asian economies
India GDP (March Quarter) – June 2014

India GDP (March Quarter) – June 2014

13 June 2014

India’s economy expanded by 4.6% during the year to March quarter 2014; it increased 4.7% over the 2013-14 financial year. By industry, agriculture and financial services were the strongest performing; manufacturing and mining remained in recession.

India GDP (March Quarter) – June 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014

12 June 2014

Bulk commodity markets recorded another relatively weak month –with iron ore prices continuing to ease (falling below US$100 a tonne), thermal coal prices remaining weak, while metallurgical coal eased higher –away from particularly low levels.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014

12 June 2014

The generally upward trend in advanced economy purchasing manager surveys began to fade through late 2013 and 2014 and that has been followed by a levelling out in the rate of growth in world trade and industrial output.

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014
Gold Market Update – May 2014

Gold Market Update – May 2014

11 June 2014

Tensions between the Ukraine and Russia have been less disruptive than a month ago, reducing market volatility and bringing down gold’s risk premium –allowing gold markets to refocus attention on macroeconomic drivers. Reasonably positive economic data out of the US.

Gold Market Update – May 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – May 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2014

11 June 2014

In the past month, US natural gas prices moderated slightly on milder weather, but remained around 13% more than the same time last year on extremely low inventories. In contrast, the slide in European gas prices continued in May on low heating demand.

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014

10 June 2014

Global growth levelled off through late 2013 and early 2014, partly due to bad weather hitting North America. Advanced economy upturn looks set to continue as interest rates stay low and as the peak in fiscal consolidation has passed

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014
Monthly Business Survey – May 2014

Monthly Business Survey – May 2014

10 June 2014

Business confidence survived the government’s ‘tough budget’ intact, but business conditions eased again (reflecting sales). Employment and profits were steady at soft levels. Conditions are mixed across industries, but are generally negative outside of services

Monthly Business Survey – May 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014

26 May 2014

There are signs of stabilisation in the growth in the US and China: the US Fed proceeded with another US$10 billion cut in their monthly quantitative easing program to US$45 billion, while Chinese industrial activity gained some support from a series of targeted stimulus policies.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014
China Economic Comment – May 2014

China Economic Comment – May 2014

26 May 2014

China’s steel industry is the largest in the world and a key consumer of Australian commodity exports. The industry has been suffering in recent times due to excess capacity, weak profitability and its role in the air pollution crisis, prompting Government plans to rationalise the sector...

China Economic Comment – May 2014
India Election Update – May 2014

India Election Update – May 2014

26 May 2014

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won a landslide election victory in the recently concluded elections, with the BJP winning enough seats to govern in its own right. The result was welcomed strongly by financial markets, reflecting gains in both equities as well as the Indian Rupee.

India Election Update – May 2014
US Economic Update – May 2014

US Economic Update – May 2014

26 May 2014

GDP growth paused in the March quarter, but indicators point to a bounce back in the June quarter. The labour market continues to improve highlighted by a large fall in the unemployment rate in April. Other labour market indicators are also improving but more slowly...

US Economic Update – May 2014
China Economic Update – 13 May 2014

China Economic Update – 13 May 2014

26 May 2014

Partial economic indicators continue to highlight softening trends in China, evident since the latter part of 2013. These trends remain in line with our expectations, and as such, our forecasts for Chinese economic growth are unchanged at 7.3% in 2014 (before slowing to 7% in 2015).

China Economic Update – 13 May 2014
Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014

Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014

14 May 2014

Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey handed down the 2014 Federal Budget last night and there’s plenty to talk about. Our team of economists have analysed what it means for you, your business and a variety of key industries with our summary fact sheets.

Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014
What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure

What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure

14 May 2014

The infrastructure sector was one of the big winners in the Federal Budget, with the share of infrastructure spending rising in both dollar terms and as a share of government spending. This should go some way in helping to fill the void left by retreating mining investment.

What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure
What the Federal Budget means for the health sector

What the Federal Budget means for the health sector

14 May 2014

The key focus related to health in this year’s Budget is savings. The introduction of GP co-payments, changes to PBS provisions, Medicare safety nets and indexation arrangements will contribute significant savings. We assess the key initiatives impacting Australia’s health sector.

What the Federal Budget means for the health sector
What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness

What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness

14 May 2014

Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian agribusinesses. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.

What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness
What the Federal Budget means for the Education sector

What the Federal Budget means for the Education sector

14 May 2014

There’s a lot to talk about following last night’s Federal Budget announcement. NAB’s team of economists have analysed what last night’s Federal Budget means for the Education sector and outlined key initiatives.

What the Federal Budget means for the Education sector
Alan Oster’s overview – Federal Budget 2014

Alan Oster’s overview – Federal Budget 2014

14 May 2014

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster outlines the key features of Joe Hockey’s 2014 Federal Budget announcement and analyses how it may impact Australia’s economic outlook and financial markets.

Alan Oster’s overview – Federal Budget 2014
Business and personal tax changes from the Federal Budget

Business and personal tax changes from the Federal Budget

14 May 2014

The Federal Budget contained few tax surprises, with most of the key revenue changes previously announced by the Government, including the expected additional tax for high income earners, while the Indexation of Fuel Excise will impose an additional cost on both business and individuals.

Business and personal tax changes from the Federal Budget
Industry perspective: the Federal Budget and business funding

Industry perspective: the Federal Budget and business funding

14 May 2014

While some saw this as ‘the Budget we had to have’, the grants news is good. Overall funding for businesses is set to increase under measures proposed in the 2014 Federal Budget. GrantReady summarises what the Budget means for grants and funding programs.

Industry perspective: the Federal Budget and business funding
Industry perspective: Federal Budget and infrastructure

Industry perspective: Federal Budget and infrastructure

14 May 2014

Brendon Lyon, CEO of Infrastructure Partnerships Australia, says the 2014 Federal Budget is an excellent outcome for the national infrastructure sector. He shares his views on the largest-ever national infrastructure investment programme.

Industry perspective: Federal Budget and infrastructure
Fairfax summary: Federal Budget impacts to agribusiness

Fairfax summary: Federal Budget impacts to agribusiness

14 May 2014

The 2014 Federal Budget outlined some drastic measures for the agriculture sector – from changes to Landcare to additional RD&E funding. Colin Bettles, Canberra Bureau Chief, Fairfax Agricultural Media, shares his summary of the proposed measures.

Fairfax summary: Federal Budget impacts to agribusiness
Industry perspective: what the Federal Budget means for SMEs

Industry perspective: what the Federal Budget means for SMEs

14 May 2014

For small to medium business owners, the 2014 Federal Budget contained both certainties and uncertainties. Andrew Conway, Chief Executive Officer of The Institute of Public Accountants (IPA) shared his views on what the Budget means for the sector.

Industry perspective: what the Federal Budget means for SMEs
Alan Oster’s snapshot – Federal Budget 2014

Alan Oster’s snapshot – Federal Budget 2014

14 May 2014

NAB’s Group Chief Economist Alan Oster provides his overall summary of Joe Hockey’s 2014 Federal Budget, including his initial thoughts, how it could impact small and large business, and the wider economic implications for the Australian economy.

Alan Oster’s snapshot – Federal Budget 2014
2014 Federal Budget – all the insights and expert analysis

2014 Federal Budget – all the insights and expert analysis

13 May 2014

There’s a lot of change in this year’s budget, so understanding how the Federal Budget impacts you and your business can be challenging. That’s why our team of economists and industry experts have been working around the clock to break it down.

2014 Federal Budget – all the insights and expert analysis
Monthly Business Survey – April 2014

Monthly Business Survey – April 2014

12 May 2014

Business conditions more subdued in April but confidence up marginally – shrugging off ‘tough budget’ rhetoric. Sales eased slightly, employment slightly better but still soft, profits weaker. Conditions remain volatile and mixed across industries…

Monthly Business Survey – April 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

12 May 2014

Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014
2014 Federal Budget preview

2014 Federal Budget preview

9 May 2014

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster provides a pre-budget overview of what he thinks we can expect to hear from Treasurer Joe Hockey’s first Federal Budget announcement next week.

2014 Federal Budget preview
Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014

7 May 2014

Trends for bulk commodity prices were mixed in April, with relative stability (at very weak levels) for both thermal and metallurgical coal, while iron ore briefly recovered from the low levels in March, before retreating again.

Bulk Commodities Update – April 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

7 May 2014

Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014
US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2014

US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2014

7 May 2014

US GDP growth slowed sharply in the March quarter. This, at least in part, reflected the harsh winter and also a correction to the strong growth seen in the second half of 2013 as inventory accumulation slowed and net export gains were reversed.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2014
China Economic Comment – April 2014

China Economic Comment – April 2014

7 May 2014

There have been concerns around China’s residential property market for a number of years, with bearish observers repeatedly describing the market as a bubble. In March 2014, these fears were elevated by the collapse of the Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Company.

China Economic Comment – April 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2014

6 May 2014

In the year to March 2014, Australians spent $15.2 billion on online retail. This level is equivalent to 6.6% of spending with traditional bricks & mortar retailers (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food to create a like-for-like comparison) in the year to February.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – March 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2014

6 May 2014

Post-farmgate agribusiness conditions fell significantly in the March quarter from a 9-year high in December quarter as supportive seasonal factors dissipated. However, a sustained period of positive readings suggests that underlying fundamentals remain strong.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014

6 May 2014

Globally, commodity markets experienced heightened volatility in March, with the concerns of a slowdown in China and its first domestic bond default triggering some investor risk aversion.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q1, 2014

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q1, 2014

5 May 2014

NAB Commercial Property Index rises above long-term average, but overall still negative (-3 points) and below NAB Business Confidence. Sentiment stronger in all markets, except office (unchanged) and in all states (except NSW and WA). Forward expectations however softer.

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q1, 2014
A Budget for the Ages – Federal Budget 2014

A Budget for the Ages – Federal Budget 2014

1 May 2014

Ahead of the upcoming Federal Budget, there is a lot of focus on the Commission of Audit’s findings, and putting the Budget on a sustainable medium term path as the population ages, health and pension costs rise, and the proportion of tax payers declines.

A Budget for the Ages – Federal Budget 2014
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

28 April 2014

Business conditions for ASX 300 maintained momentum in the first quarter of 2014 - the broader economy weakened as it dipped back into negative territory. Confidence for larger firms surged to its highest level in the 3-year history of the survey.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014
Quarterly SME Survey – March 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2014

28 April 2014

SME business confidence eased for the first time in over a year – consistent with persistently soft conditions and trends seen by larger firms. Nevertheless, business activity has improved with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2010 – although still sub-trend.

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2014
China Economic Update – 17 April 2014

China Economic Update – 17 April 2014

22 April 2014

There were few surprises in the latest Chinese data release, with the weakening trends evident since the latter part of last year continuing into the first quarter of 2014, with slower economic growth, comparatively soft industrial production and investment data continuing

China Economic Update – 17 April 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

17 April 2014

Business confidence eased from its recent high but remained elevated in the March quarter. Business conditions were soft, but are now much better than 6-months earlier. Forward indicators point to further modest improvements over coming months.

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2014

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2014

16 April 2014

Housing market sentiment lifted slightly in Q1 2014 as sentiment improved in SA/NT and NSW, but softened in Victoria and WA. The outlook for house prices strengthened in all states except Victoria, with Queensland showing the biggest gains in the next 1-2 years.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2014
US Economic Update – April 2014

US Economic Update – April 2014

10 April 2014

GDP growth is expected to decelerate in the March quarter, partly reflecting the temporary impact of a severe winter. The recovery should get back on a firmer footing over the rest of 2014. We are still expecting GDP growth of 2.6% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015.that

US Economic Update – April 2014
India Monetary Policy Review – April 2014

India Monetary Policy Review – April 2014

10 April 2014

At its first bi-monthly Monetary policy statement for 2014-15, the RBI maintained the policy Repo rate at 8%, as expected. India’s headline inflation indicators have improved with easing vegetable prices, although the Core CPI remained sticky at 8%, reflecting high prices for services.

India Monetary Policy Review – April 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014

9 April 2014

The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Some of this reflected the disruptive impact of bad weather on supply chains but the March business survey results suggest a levelling out in the pace of growth

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014
Monthly Business Survey – March 2014

Monthly Business Survey – March 2014

8 April 2014

Business conditions lifted slightly in March, but remained at relatively subdued levels, weighing on business optimism. Confidence still positive but softened to its lowest post-election level to be below long-run trend.

Monthly Business Survey – March 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014

8 April 2014

Global economy growing around trend but signs in early 2014 that accelerating growth phase has ended. Mixed conditions across regions with advanced economies providing more of global output expansion as Chinese growth rate trends down.

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014
Base Metals Market Update – March 2014

Base Metals Market Update – March 2014

7 April 2014

Prices for most industrial metals have moved lower in response to growth concerns in China and uncertainty over the unwinding of commodity financing deals. However, supply side events are supporting prices for Nickel in particular.

Base Metals Market Update – March 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014

3 April 2014

Economic data was mixed over the past month, but the impact from severe weather on advanced economies appears to be abating. Partial indicators suggest China’s economy has continued to slow. US tapered QE again and markets remain volatile as they try to discern Fed direction.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014
Oil Market Update – March 2014

Oil Market Update – March 2014

3 April 2014

Since mid-January, several idiosyncratic factors, such as the ramping up of takeaway capacity by the Keystone XL Pipeline, better US economic data and unseasonably cold weather, have propped West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices relative to Tapis and Brent.

Oil Market Update – March 2014
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2014

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2014

2 April 2014

Recent improved momentum in online sales stall in February – with trends weaker for most categories – strength remains in Groceries & Liquor, but Personal & Recreational Goods and Daily Deals contract. Online spending up to $15 billion in the past year.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2014
China: Special Update – 19 March 2014

China: Special Update – 19 March 2014

27 March 2014

Early this month saw China’s first onshore corporate default, when a Shanghai based solar company defaulted on its bond repayments of RMB 89.8 million (around US$14.7 million). This has been followed this week with a collapse of an unlisted private property development company.

China: Special Update – 19 March 2014
China Economic Comment – March 2014

China Economic Comment – March 2014

27 March 2014

In early March, China recorded its first domestic corporate bond default when the Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Company failed to make a RMB 89.8 million interest payment, having narrowly avoided a similar outcome in January 2013.

China Economic Comment – March 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014

26 March 2014

Global equity and commodity markets exhibited increased volatility in the past month, caused by heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, adverse weather events in the US and news of a slowing Chinese economy. December quarter GDP result for Australia was close to trend.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014
NAB Wellbeing Index – Q1 2014

NAB Wellbeing Index – Q1 2014

20 March 2014

National wellbeing improves after falling in the previous two quarters, but anxiety continues to rise with more than one-third of Australians currently “highly” anxious. The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index rose to 64.6 points in Q1 2014 (63.5 points in Q4 2013).

NAB Wellbeing Index – Q1 2014
China Economic Update – 14 March 2014

China Economic Update – 14 March 2014

17 March 2014

At the start of this month’s National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang confirmed China’s growth target at ‘about 7.5%’ in 2014, but noted that reform was the Government’s top priority.

China Economic Update – 14 March 2014
US Economic Update – March 2014

US Economic Update – March 2014

17 March 2014

GDP growth is expected to decelerate modestly in the March quarter, partly reflecting the temporary impact of a severe winter. Following GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013 we are forecasting GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2014 (previously 2.8%) and 2.9% in 2015.

US Economic Update – March 2014
Talking Shop – Autumn 2014

Talking Shop – Autumn 2014

13 March 2014

Talking Shop provides our merchant customers with relevant industry updates and insights to help manage their business more effectively. In this edition we look at boosting sales, reducing chargebacks, keeping customer data safe and transitioning to PIN authorisation.

Talking Shop – Autumn 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014

13 March 2014

The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Nevertheless, this softer note probably reflects bad weather disrupting supply chains.

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014
Monthly Business Survey – February 2014

Monthly Business Survey – February 2014

11 March 2014

Recent recovery short lived? Business conditions back-pedalled sharply in February reversing around half post election gains. Confidence softened but still remains marginally above trend. Sales and employment fell markedly during the month, with the latter pointing to very weak labour

Monthly Business Survey – February 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014

11 March 2014

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014
India GDP (December Quarter) – March 2014

India GDP (December Quarter) – March 2014

11 March 2014

India’s economic growth decelerated to 4.7% in the December quarter 2013, in year ended terms, from 4.8% in the September quarter. The standout was the Services sector (particularly Financial services and Community services), which grew by 6.7%, followed by Agriculture at 3.6%.

India GDP (December Quarter) – March 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – February 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – February 2014

6 March 2014

In the past few months, US natural gas prices have staged some gravity defying movements, fuelled by unusually strong heating demand from the most extreme winter conditions affecting the US in about a quarter of the century.

Natural Gas Market Update – February 2014
Gold Market Update – February 2014

Gold Market Update – February 2014

6 March 2014

The average price of gold rose by around 1½% in January and has lifted a further 4½% in February to date, the first consecutive rise since late 2012. Prices have been volatile of late, but are currently trading at around $1,330 per ounce.

Gold Market Update – February 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2013

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2013

4 March 2014

Post-farmgate agribusiness conditions rose significantly to their highest level in 9 years in the December quarter, with across-the-board improvements in all the three components of trading, profitability and employment.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2013
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013

3 March 2014

The Manufacturing Activity Index continued with its slow improvement in Q4, supported by strong business confidence and falling labour costs. The index implies activity in the manufacturing industry expanded by 0.5% in Q4.

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013
Asian Emerging Economies Update – February 2014

Asian Emerging Economies Update – February 2014

27 February 2014

Moderate economic growth continues across the emerging market economies of East Asia (ASEAN, HK, South Korea and Taiwan) with the pace of regional growth quickening from just under 4% yoy in September quarter to 4.3% yoy in December.

Asian Emerging Economies Update – February 2014
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2013

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2013

27 February 2014

Sentiment rises further in Q4, with NAB’s Commercial Property Index reaching a 2-year high (but still negative overall). Improvement driven mainly by office and retail, although both segments still under-performing. Sentiment edged up in all states bar Qld and SA/NT.

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2014

25 February 2014

Australia is on track to be the third largest exporter of raw cotton in the world in 2013-14, with forecasts of just under one million tonnes according to the latest Rural Commodities Wrap. The AUD is forecast to track lower which should provide further benefits to exporters.

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2014
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

20 February 2014

Business conditions for larger firms improved significantly in the December quarter – outperforming firms in the broader economy. However, confidence weakened slightly for larger firms – dropping below conditions and breaking away from the exuberance of the broader economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013
China Economic Update – 20 February 2014

China Economic Update – 20 February 2014

20 February 2014

Concerns have been raised by the rapid growth in local government liabilities in recent years, with questions around the stability and security of China’s sub-sovereign debt, and the risk that a potential default could trigger a broader financial crisis.

China Economic Update – 20 February 2014
Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – February 2014

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – February 2014

18 February 2014

How to add Australian Debt Securities & Corporate Bonds to a portfolio. The fourth research report examining the Australian corporate bond market. In this report we place the Australian market in an international context and speculate on what the future holds for the asset class.

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – February 2014
Quarterly SME Survey – December 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2013

17 February 2014

SME business confidence up for a fourth quarter – consistent with increases seen by larger firms. Confidence is finally gaining traction to support business activity, with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2011 – but remain soft.

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2013
Motor vehicle headwinds – February 2014

Motor vehicle headwinds – February 2014

14 February 2014

Toyota has announced it would terminate automotive manufacturing operations in Australia by the end of 2017. Ford and General Motors (Holden) previously announced they would close their operations in 2016. The strength of the AUD has weighed heavily on an already struggling industry

Motor vehicle headwinds – February 2014
US Economic Update – February 2014

US Economic Update – February 2014

14 February 2014

Economy still on track despite fall in manufacturing ISM and another weak jobs report. Following GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013 we are forecasting GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015. Inflation remains well below Fed’s 2% objective.

US Economic Update – February 2014
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2013

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2013

14 February 2014

Housing market sentiment lifts in Q4, supported by faster house price growth in all states (bar SA/NT). House prices expected to keep growing in next 1-2 years, but at slower rate than predicted in Q3 survey. Queensland is the exception and now set to lead country for capital gains.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q4 2013
Monthly Business Survey – January 2014

Monthly Business Survey – January 2014

11 February 2014

Business conditions maintained last months momentum and is approaching 3 year highs while confidence was up for the first time in 4 months – both near or above trend levels. Employment index much better, but still suggests soft labour market conditions.

Monthly Business Survey – January 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

6 February 2014

Business confidence in the December quarter was at its highest in more than 2½ years. Business conditions lifted to their highest level in more than 12 months suggesting activity is starting to catch up - albeit still below trend.

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013
Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014

6 February 2014

Bulk commodity prices softened in January, driven by the end of the restocking phase and seasonally weak steel production - which contributed to weaker demand trends for coal and iron ore. Expanding rail freight capacity in China could impact the country’s demand for seaborne coal

Bulk Commodities Update – February 2014
US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2013

US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2013

6 February 2014

US GDP rose by a reasonably strong 3.2% (annualized rate) in Q4, completing a strong second half to the year. Consumption growth was stronger as were net exports but residential investment went into reverse and public demand was very weak due to the October government shutdown.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2013

5 February 2014

Recent improved momentum in online sales maintained in December – with trends positive for most categories - strength in Electronic Games and Toys, Groceries and Liquor, and Media. Online spending up to $14.7 billion in the past year.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – January 2014

India Monetary Policy Review – January 2014

4 February 2014

At its Quarterly Monetary policy review on the 28th of January 2014, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the Repo rate by 25bp to 8%, and simultaneously raised both the MSF (Marginal Standing Facility Rate) and Reverse Repo Rate by 25bp to 9% and 7% respectively.

India Monetary Policy Review – January 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014

29 January 2014

Business surveys and partial data on trade and industrial output show moderate global economic growth continuing through to the end of 2013. There are mixed trends across Emerging markets, with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014
Monthly Business Survey – December 2013

Monthly Business Survey – December 2013

28 January 2014

Are we at a turning point? Business conditions jump to more than 2½ year high, while confidence broadly unchanged – both now near trend levels. Sales and profits up sharply – especially in wholesale, transport and services – reducing excess capacity slightly.

Monthly Business Survey – December 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014

28 January 2014

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014
China Economic Comment – January 2014

China Economic Comment – January 2014

23 January 2014

One of the key challenges in 2014 for China’s Central Government will be how it addresses the ongoing issue of air pollution across the country. Rising levels of smog and hazardous PM 2.5 particles have increased public health concerns.

China Economic Comment – January 2014
CPI preview – December quarter 2013

CPI preview – December quarter 2013

22 January 2014

We expect Q4 underlying inflation to print at 0.6% (2.3% through the year) on Wednesday. This would be the fifth successive outcome in the bottom half of the RBA target range. Subdued wages growth and weak domestic demand continue to keep core inflation well under control.

CPI preview – December quarter 2013
China Economic Update – 21 January 2014

China Economic Update – 21 January 2014

22 January 2014

China’s latest National Accounts data shows that the economy grew by 1.8% quarter on quarter in December, and 7.7% year on year - representing a marginal slowdown from the September quarter (when yoy growth was 7.8%).

China Economic Update – 21 January 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2014

17 January 2014

The global economy capped off 2013 on a strong note, with monthly measures of global industrial output and trade indicators picking up to finally be consistent with the more buoyant message that the advanced economy business surveys have been signalling since late 2012.

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2014
US Economic Update – January 2014

US Economic Update – January 2014

17 January 2014

Recent partial indicators of economic activity have been positive. With inventories also tracking more strongly than expected, December quarter GDP growth is now estimated to be 0.7% qoq (3.0% annualised). We are forecasting GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013

US Economic Update – January 2014
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2013

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2013

15 January 2014

Consumer anxiety rises amid ongoing weakness in the domestic economy. Consumer anxiety rose to 61.5 points in Q4 (61.1 in Q3). With the labour market softening, anxiety over job security has started climbing although it still rates as the lowest concern overall.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2013
Pedal to the metal

Pedal to the metal

15 January 2014

The limp performance of metals and bulk commodities over the past couple of years has resembled a unicycle rather than the superbike of previous years. According to Simon Wright of The Economist, the 2014 outlook for demand is rosier and commodity prices should start climbing once again.

Pedal to the metal
NAB Wellbeing Index – Q4 2013

NAB Wellbeing Index – Q4 2013

10 January 2014

National wellbeing deteriorates for the second straight quarter. The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell to 63.5 points in Q4 (64.4 points in Q3), with all four survey questions - satisfied life, worthwhile life, happy yesterday and not anxious yesterday - rated lower.

NAB Wellbeing Index – Q4 2013
Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013

Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013

9 January 2014

Global upturn continues with advanced economies seeing faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.

Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2013

8 January 2014

Growth rates for online sales increased in November – with trends positive for most categories - strength in Media, Groceries and Liquor, Toys and Electronic Games and Department and Variety Stores. Online spending up to $14.6 billion in past year.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2013
2014 economic trends for small business

2014 economic trends for small business

1 January 2014

Through our partnership with Kochie’s Business Builders, David Koch speaks with NAB Chief Economist of Markets, Rob Henderson about his outlook for 2014. Join them as they discuss some of the big trends in the economy that may impact small business.

2014 economic trends for small business
Brief China Economic Update – 11 December 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 11 December 2013

12 December 2013

Our expectations that China will achieve its growth target this year remain unchanged. Domestic demand has strengthened recently, with consumer confidence improving, while exports increased strongly during November - contributing to the widest trade surplus for four years.

Brief China Economic Update – 11 December 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013

12 December 2013

September industrial output and broader measures of quarterly GDP are finally showing economic growth starting to lift in line with both the business surveys and our forecast for a global upturn in 2014 (growth at 3½% unchanged).

Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013
Monthly Business Survey – November 2013

Monthly Business Survey – November 2013

10 December 2013

Business conditions and confidence broadly unchanged - with confidence still much higher than conditions. While still weak, business conditions appear to be trending higher. Trading conditions up - especially mining and manufacturing - with capacity utilisation off its recent lows.

Monthly Business Survey – November 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013

10 December 2013

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies see faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013
India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2013

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2013

10 December 2013

Indian growth accelerated to 4.8%, in year ended terms, in the September Quarter, up from 4.4% in the June quarter. An improvement in the agricultural sector (up to 4.6% from 2.7%), due to a favourable monsoon season, helped drive the improved outcome.

India GDP (September Quarter) – December 2013
Oil Market Update – November 2013

Oil Market Update – November 2013

9 December 2013

Average oil prices fell for the second consecutive month in November. In addition to the bearish sentiment in the crude oil futures market, oil prices have generally returned to be more aligned with the reality of fundamentals where ample supplies, have served to weigh on prices.

Oil Market Update – November 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013

9 December 2013

November’s Third Plenum unveiled a wide ranging reform agenda from China’s Government. Proposed deregulation would increase free market influence and could support a stronger medium term growth profile for the economy.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013
Base Metals Market Update – November 2013

Base Metals Market Update – November 2013

3 December 2013

Metals prices remain well below peaks recorded earlier in the year but have been relatively range bound, fluctuating with the ebbs and flows of economic news. As usual, news relating to US Fed policy and the Chinese economy has been particularly relevant.

Base Metals Market Update – November 2013
US Economic Update – November 2013

US Economic Update – November 2013

20 November 2013

US GDP rose by 2.8% (annualized rate) in the September quarter, continuing the improvement experienced over the course of the past year. However, details a bit weaker as the stronger growth reflected a pick-up in inventories.

US Economic Update – November 2013
US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2013

US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2013

19 November 2013

US GDP rose by 2.8% (annualized rate) in the September quarter, continuing the improvement experienced over the course of the past year. However, the stronger growth largely reflected a pickup in inventories. Business investment and consumption were weak, but housing is still growing

US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2013
China Economic Comment – November 2013

China Economic Comment – November 2013

18 November 2013

China has one of the most important labour markets in the world. This is true for a number of reasons. The most apparent is that it has the largest labour market in the world, and rapid income growth is generating a middle class in China that is expected to define the global economy

China Economic Comment – November 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013

15 November 2013

Global growth remains at a moderate sub-trend pace and it’s expected to pick up to slightly below trend in 2014. However, NAB business conditions remain weak and forward indicators deteriorated slightly. There are still no signs of a recovery in non-mining investment.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2013

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2013

13 November 2013

Commercial property market sentiment improved slightly in Q3, in line with a modest pick-up in confidence also seen in NAB’s Quarterly Business Survey. However, NAB’s Commercial Property Index is still deeply negative (-13) and below its long-term average (-7).

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013

13 November 2013

Global growth rose from 2.4% to 2.8% between March and June quarters and we are expecting 2.9% for 2013 overall, increasing to 3.5% next year. The national accounts and business surveys show a quickening pace of growth in the big advanced economies with the UK and Japan the standout.

Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 11 November 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 11 November 2013

12 November 2013

China remains on track to achieve its growth target for the year with domestic demand holding up in October, while exports picked up from the disappointing outcome in September. Industrial production was slightly better than expectations for the month.

Brief China Economic Update – 11 November 2013
Monthly Business Survey – October 2013

Monthly Business Survey – October 2013

12 November 2013

Firms reassess their confidence on the outlook as business conditions undershoot again. Capacity utilisation falls sharply - especially in manufacturing, construction, mining and retail - despite low interest rates and improved housing and equity markets.

Monthly Business Survey – October 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013

12 November 2013

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing faster recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Mixed trends across emerging markets with solid Chinese growth but disappointing outcomes in India.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – October 2013

India Monetary Policy Review – October 2013

11 November 2013

At its Quarterly Monetary policy review on the 29th of October, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the Repo rate by 25bp to 7.75%. It simultaneously cut the MSF (Marginal Standing Facility Rate) by 25bp to 8%; this follows a prior 50bp cut on the 7th October.

India Monetary Policy Review – October 2013
Natural Gas Market Update – October 2013

Natural Gas Market Update – October 2013

8 November 2013

US natural gas prices showed significant volatility in the lead-up to the US government shutdown, but trended higher in September and October overall in anticipation of winter heating demand. British natural gas prices also tracked higher in the past two months.

Natural Gas Market Update – October 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013

8 November 2013

In October, indicators of global economic activity were mixed, casting some doubt over signs of recovery in the advanced economies. The upturn is still under way, but the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013

1 November 2013

Donations grew 2.5% (12-month average) in August with an average annual donation of $312 per donor. Giving grew fastest for “Other” (12.8%) and Health & Disability (9.1%) charities, but fell for Humanitarian Services (-3.2%) and Medical Research & Services (-2.4%) charities.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013
Gold Market Update – October 2013

Gold Market Update – October 2013

1 November 2013

The average price of gold eased by around 2½% in October, though the daily spot price generally strengthened over the second half of the month and is currently trading at around $1,340 per ounce. Gold is set to record its first annual price decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – October 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2013

1 November 2013

Online sales growth edges up in September – to +0.3% mom (from even weaker sales in August). Sales trends mixed by category. In the year to September 2013, Australia’s online retail spending totaled $14.3 billion. This is equivalent to 6.3% of the traditional bricks & mortar retail sector

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2013
Asian Emerging Economies Update – October 2013

Asian Emerging Economies Update – October 2013

30 October 2013

Behind the volatility in the monthly data, the trend pace of growth in the emerging market economies of East Asia (which stretch from S Korea to Indonesia) remains weak. Industrial output and export volumes are barely above year-earlier levels, reflecting sluggish growth in world trade.

Asian Emerging Economies Update – October 2013
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2013

29 October 2013

Stronger conditions for ASX 300 in Q2 - widening the gap to the economy - but confidence fell sharply. Mining conditions fell, now the weakest among ASX 300 firms. Discounting among ASX 300 may be evident. Stocks & orders point to weakness in domestic economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2013
China Economic Comment – October 2013

China Economic Comment – October 2013

28 October 2013

As the Chinese economy enters a transitional phase in its development, many are now questioning what this will mean for its future economic performance. The IMF recently examined a number of scenarios for how China’s recent investment driven growth model could unfold over coming years.

China Economic Comment – October 2013
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2013

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2013

25 October 2013

Post‐farmgate agribusiness conditions maintained its momentum in the September quarter to remain in positive territory, with the profitability index recording its first positive reading in three years.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2013

24 October 2013

SME business confidence broadly unchanged – with no sign of the political kick in confidence seen elsewhere in business. That may in part reflect a significant fall in business conditions in the quarter. SME performance in poor sectors of the economy were similar to larger firms.

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2013
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013

21 October 2013

The Manufacturing Activity Index was largely unchanged in Q3 – with positive trends for business confidence offset by negative ones for labour and purchase costs and final product prices. The index implies a slight increase quarterly manufacturing activity - at around +0.4%.

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 18 October 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 18 October 2013

18 October 2013

According to National Accounts data released today, the Chinese economy grew 2.2% in the September quarter to be 7.8% larger than the same period last year. The improvement in growth from last quarter was slightly above our expectation.

Brief China Economic Update – 18 October 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2013

18 October 2013

Global bond yields fell in September from the US Fed surprise decision not to initiate the tapering of its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, commodity markets weakened further. The strong pace in the economic recovery in big advanced economies evident in the first half of the year

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – September

Quarterly Business Survey – September

17 October 2013

Businesses become more confident in the September quarter. This fundamentally appears to be driven by political factors – albeit the lower AUD and rates, together with stronger asset markets would have helped.

Quarterly Business Survey – September
NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2013

NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2013

16 October 2013

The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell to 6.4 points in Q3, with a big increase in anxiety in WA a key contributor to lower national wellbeing. Consumer anxiety rose to 6.1 points in Q3, underpinned by rising concerns around cost of living, ability to fund retirement and health.

NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013

16 October 2013

In September, overall demand for commodities gained support from progress in the global economic recovery. Positive data from major economies is adding to confidence that the recovery in the big advanced economies is currently on track.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013
US Economic Update – October 2013

US Economic Update – October 2013

16 October 2013

September quarter GDP growth expected to be 2.0% qoq (annualised rate). Business surveys more positive on strength of the economy. Partial U.S. Government shutdown will not have a major direct impact on the economy.

US Economic Update – October 2013
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2013

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2013

10 October 2013

Housing market sentiment strengthened notably in Q3, underpinned by an acceleration in house price growth in all states (bar WA). The Survey is pointing to faster price growth ahead (led by NSW and Queensland), but gains are expected to be relatively modest.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q3 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013

10 October 2013

After a period where the data showed accelerating growth in the big advanced economies, the latest numbers have been more mixed. Although an upturn is still under way, the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.

Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013
Monthly Business Survey – September 2013

Monthly Business Survey – September 2013

8 October 2013

Animal spirits lift again. Confidence surges to its highest level in 3½ years. Business conditions, however, still subdued - with employment poor. Signs of better conditions in finance/ business/ property and construction.

Monthly Business Survey – September 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013

8 October 2013

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed - but growth momentum has slowed a touch through mid-2013. Composition of global growth still shifting toward advanced economies with mixed trends in emerging markets.

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013
Business and the dollar – September 2013

Business and the dollar – September 2013

2 October 2013

The recent depreciation of the dollar has not been all good news for Australian business. While a weaker dollar has helped raise returns in export markets and blunted some import competition it has also raised input costs for some domestic industries that are in no position to pass them on.

Business and the dollar – September 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – September 2013

India Monetary Policy Review – September 2013

2 October 2013

At its Quarterly Monetary policy review on 20 July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the MSF rate by 75bps, whilst raising the Repo and Reverse Repo rates by 25 basis points. The Cash Reserve Ratio was held at 4%, but the minimum daily balance was reduced from 99% to 95%.

India Monetary Policy Review – September 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – August 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – August 2013

30 September 2013

In the year to August 2013, Australians spent $14.2 bn on online retail. This level is equivalent to 6.3% of spending with traditional bricks & mortar retailer (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food to create a like-for-like comparison) in the year to July 2013.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – August 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013

20 September 2013

Global financial markets rallied strongly when US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) defied market expectations of a modest tapering and decided to leave retain the status quo on the pace of asset purchases.

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013
State Economic Update – September 2013

State Economic Update – September 2013

16 September 2013

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey showed a marginal deterioration in overall business conditions in the June quarter, with the level remaining close to four year lows. All states experienced difficult conditions in the quarter.

State Economic Update – September 2013
US Economic Update – September 2013

US Economic Update – September 2013

13 September 2013

US GDP for the June quarter revised up from 1.7% (annualized rate) to 2.5%. While some partial indicators were soft at the start of the September quarter, business surveys point to a stronger underlying momentum in the economy. We have revised up our forecast for GDP growth in 2013 to 1.6%

US Economic Update – September 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 10 September 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 10 September 2013

13 September 2013

The most recent batch of partial economic indicators provide further evidence that China's economy may be stabilising, supported by improved foreign demand and a shift in policy stance. There may have also been a delayed impact from rapid credit growth earlier in the year.

Brief China Economic Update – 10 September 2013
China Economic Comment – September 2013

China Economic Comment – September 2013

13 September 2013

There has been a large divergence in views over the future path of China’s monetary policy/stimulus over the medium term. While the majority view expects target interest rates and reserve requirements to remain unchanged until early 2015, there are still analysts calling for cuts to rates.

China Economic Comment – September 2013
Monthly Business Survey – August 2013

Monthly Business Survey – August 2013

10 September 2013

Confidence rises everywhere and surges in mining, construction and finance/ business/ property. This appears to reflect expectations of political change & more certainty about future political frameworks. Against that, business conditions and capacity utilisation remained poor.

Monthly Business Survey – August 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013

10 September 2013

Recent data show a promising lift in business sentiment in big advanced economies but financial volatility hitting emerging market growth prospects (India, ASEAN, and Brazil). Little change in headline global growth forecast with advanced economy upturn set to drive faster world economy

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013
India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013

10 September 2013

The Indian economy (Production, at factor cost) grew by only 4.4% over the year to the June quarter, 2013. This is the slowest pace of growth since March 2009. By Production, services (primarily financial and agriculture) were the mainstay; in contrast, mining and manufacturing contracted

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013

4 September 2013

More positive news on the major economies has provided a slight boost to most commodity prices in August, with the long awaited rotation of global growth towards the big advanced economies seemingly underway. Global manufacturing activity also appears to have gained momentum.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013
Oil Market Update – August 2013

Oil Market Update – August 2013

2 September 2013

Oil prices strengthened in July, reflecting heightened concerns over the security of supply with the violent unrest in Egypt, an uptick in Asian crude demand due to improved margins, as well as ramped up refinery runs and tight supply.

Oil Market Update – August 2013
Base Metals Market Update – August 2013

Base Metals Market Update – August 2013

27 August 2013

Metals prices remain well below peaks recorded earlier in the year but have seen some support recently from more upbeat economic data, particularly from the large advanced economies, although China is showing early signs of stabilising as well.

Base Metals Market Update – August 2013
Gold Market Update – August 2013

Gold Market Update – August 2013

27 August 2013

The price of gold fell by a notable 4.3% in July, but has stabilised more recently, recovering by a modest 2.8% over August to date. Spot gold is currently around $1,380 an ounce. The price of gold will certainly record its first annual decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – August 2013
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2013

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2013

26 August 2013

Post-farmgate agribusiness conditions rebounded in the June quarter to be mildly positive but confidence fell marginally. Customer demand remains the single most significant constraint to businesses’ future profitability. Expectations for capex plans surged to the highest in two years.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2013
US Economic Update – August 2013

US Economic Update – August 2013

19 August 2013

US GDP rose by 1.7% (annualized rate) in the June quarter, an improvement on the March quarter, but still only a modest rate of growth. The stronger growth largely reflected a pick-up in business investment and a much smaller detraction from growth from public demand.

US Economic Update – August 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013

19 August 2013

Global equity markets recovered earlier losses as it became clear that central banks would not rapidly turn off their monetary easing, although we still expect the US Federal Reserve to start tapering in the coming few weeks.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013
China Economic Update – August 2013

China Economic Update – August 2013

18 August 2013

Partial economic indicators, although still subdued, provided some signs that the economy may be stabilising. Trade data were somewhat above expectations, including much stronger import growth pointing to improved domestic demand.

China Economic Update – August 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013

14 August 2013

Central bank statements reinforcing their guidance that interest rates should stay low for a long time yet across the big advanced economies, have supported financial markets. Recent business surveys and industrial data point to an upturn in growth in these advanced economies

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013

13 August 2013

Global growth unchanged as modest country forecast revisions cancel each other out. We see moderate acceleration in global growth to around trend in 2014. Recent data show promising signs in big advanced economies while conditions still softening in emerging market economies.

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013
Monthly Business Survey – July 2013

Monthly Business Survey – July 2013

13 August 2013

Business conditions remain at 4 year lows while confidence slumps to 8 month low - despite a falling AUD and lower interest rates. Conditions very poor in manufacturing, construction, mining, retail and wholesale; WA now the weakest state.

Monthly Business Survey – July 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 9 August 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 9 August 2013

12 August 2013

Partial economic indicators, although still subdued, provided some signs that the economy may now be stabilising. Trade data came in somewhat above expectations, including much stronger import growth pointing to a pick up in domestic demand.

Brief China Economic Update – 9 August 2013
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2013

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2013

7 August 2013

Sentiment in the commercial property market weakened notably in Q2 2013. The recent softening in economic conditions (and more subdued outlook for GDP growth) seem to have weighed most heavily in office and industrial markets, with retail unchanged (but very weak).

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2013
Emerging Asian Economies Update – August 2013

Emerging Asian Economies Update – August 2013

5 August 2013

Exports from Australia to the emerging economies of Asia (ASEAN, S Korea, Taiwan, HK) remain below their 2011 peak, largely because of lower commodity prices. Dairy is 40% of New Zealand exports to these economies and higher dairy prices have driven a rebound in its earnings from the region

Emerging Asian Economies Update – August 2013
Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013

Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013

5 August 2013

The government’s economic forecasts now recognise the softness of the domestic economy and the weaker outlook for commodity prices and incomes. In the near term the Budget now looks to be slightly adding to growth (rather than detracting as at Budget time).

Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013
US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2013

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2013

2 August 2013

US GDP rose by 1.7% (annualized rate) in the June quarter, an improvement on the March quarter, but still only a modest rate of growth. The stronger growth largely reflected a pick-up in business investment and a much smaller detraction from growth from public demand.

US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2013

1 August 2013

Online sales growth slowed to +14% yoy in June - the second slowest rate recorded. Fewer Fridays and a lack of product launches may have contributed to subdued growth. In the twelve months to June 2013, Australian online retail spending totalled $13.9 billion.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – June 2013
NAB changes rates call: Two cuts by year end

NAB changes rates call: Two cuts by year end

31 July 2013

We had already been forecasting a 25bps rate cut in August to 2½% and with the Governor giving the green light for lower interest rates this now looks a sure thing. We now also expect an additional 25bps cut to 2.25% before year end – most likely in November after the Q3 CPI.

NAB changes rates call: Two cuts by year end
Quarterly SME Survey – June 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2013

24 July 2013

SME confidence & conditions improve significantly with activity of smaller firms outperforming larger firms for the first time in almost four years. SME conditions strengthened across most industries.

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2013
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

22 July 2013

Stronger conditions for ASX 300 in Q2 - widening the gap to the economy - but confidence fell sharply. Mining conditions fell, now the weakest among ASX 300 firms. Discounting among ASX 300 may be evident. Stocks & orders point to weakness in domestic economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013

19 July 2013

Global equity markets have come under downward pressure, but the latest data on activity is slightly more positive. Business sentiment about current conditions has picked up in advanced economies and growth in global industrial output is faster.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013
China Economic Update – July 2013

China Economic Update – July 2013

19 July 2013

According to recently released National Accounts data, the Chinese economy grew 1.7% in the June quarter to be 7.5% larger than the same period last year. This result is in line with our forecast for the quarter.

China Economic Update – July 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

18 July 2013

Business conditions struggle in the June quarter and confidence falls back, driven by a pessimistic mining sector. Falling equities and offshore concerns likely to be weighing on sentiment. Little sign yet that lower interest rates and AUD are helping.

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 15 July 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 15 July 2013

16 July 2013

According to National Accounts data released today, the Chinese economy grew 1.7% in the June quarter to be 7.5% larger than the same period last year. This result is in line with our forecast for the quarter, a solid outcome relative to the recent spate of soft partial indicators.

Brief China Economic Update – 15 July 2013
US Economic Update – July 2013

US Economic Update – July 2013

16 July 2013

Overall, the US economy appears to be continuing to grow at a modest pace. While GDP growth is likely to slow in the June quarter, this is partly due to an expected inventory correction. We are forecasting GDP growth will strengthen in the second half of the year.

US Economic Update – July 2013
Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – July 2013

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – July 2013

15 July 2013

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds - What’s the risk? Important considerations for Investors. We bring you the second of five research reports examining the Australian corporate bond market, prepared for National Australia Bank by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies

Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – July 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013

10 July 2013

Equity and currency market volatility reflects uncertainties over the pace at which the Fed might alter US monetary policy, Chinese authorities might clamp down on shadow banking and the potential impact of the Bank of Japan’s move to greater monetary easing.

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013
Monthly Business Survey – June 2013

Monthly Business Survey – June 2013

9 July 2013

Business conditions and capacity utilisation slump to a four year low. Confidence a little better but still below trend. Conditions very bad in retail, mining and manufacturing, despite low interest rates and falling AUD, though signs a little better for exports.

Monthly Business Survey – June 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013

9 July 2013

Global growth forecasts unchanged. A few signs that activity is picking up in some advanced economies but India and Brazil still soft and growing concerns over pace of Chinese growth. Markets focussed on central bank policy driving greater volatility in equities and currencies.

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013
Global FX Strategist – July 2013

Global FX Strategist – July 2013

8 July 2013

The asymmetric (downside) risks we alluded to in our previous AUD forecast update have eventuated and we have now made further downward revisions. The Fed's return to the (early stages) of policy normalcy in itself justifies an AUD/USD in the low 0.80s.

Global FX Strategist – July 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013

5 July 2013

Global financial markets have taken a dive at the suggestions of the US Federal Reserve scaling back quantitative easing soon and the drying up of new stimulus initiatives by the Japanese government.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013

4 July 2013

Overall, the heightened volatility in global financial markets associated with central bank decisions in the US and China has weighed on commodity prices. The slowdown in the Chinese economy is also gaining traction in markets and further weakens demand prospects.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013
Gold Market Update – June 2013

Gold Market Update – June 2013

2 July 2013

Expectations for the US Federal Reserve to begin tapering its $85 billion in monthly debt buying this year, a rising US dollar and a slowing Chinese economy have sent ripples through the gold market. The price of gold is now heading for its first annual decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – June 2013
Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013

2 July 2013

Bulk commodity prices remain under pressure from mounting concerns over the China growth outlook. Nevertheless, iron ore is receiving some support from tentative restocking activity, while a margin squeeze in the coal market could suggest that prices are approaching their bottom.

Bulk Commodities Update – June 2013
India Economic Update – March quarter 2013

India Economic Update – March quarter 2013

2 July 2013

In the final quarter of 2012-13, the Indian economy grew by 4.8%. This was broadly similar to the upwardly revised third quarter estimate of 4.7%. Somewhat softer growth in the last 2 quarters of the current fiscal year has pushed overall growth in 2012/2013 to 5%, the lowest in a decade.

India Economic Update – March quarter 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2013

2 July 2013

For the year to May 2013, Australians spent around $13.7 billion with online retailers. This is equivalent to 6.1% of the spending in the traditional bricks & mortar retail sector (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food for a like-to-like comparison) in the year to April 2013.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – May 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – June 2013

India Monetary Policy Review – June 2013

2 July 2013

In its mid quarter Monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India held its benchmark Repo rate at 7.25% and the Reverse Repo rate at 6.25%. The RBI expressed concern at the sudden, steep depreciation in the Rupee amid a high current account deficit.

India Monetary Policy Review – June 2013
NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2013

NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2013

1 July 2013

Australian wellbeing improved in the June quarter despite softening economic conditions. NAB's Australian Wellbeing Index measured 6.6 points, up from 6.2 points in the March quarter. Consumer anxiety fell in the quarter in line with moderating concerns about future spending/savings plans.

NAB Wellbeing Index & Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2013
US Economic Update – June 2013

US Economic Update – June 2013

14 June 2013

Early indicators suggest GDP growth will slow a little in the June quarter from its March quarter level. However, as the impact of tax increases and the automatic budget cuts fades, growth is expected to strengthen later in the year. We see GDP growth of 2.1% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014.

US Economic Update – June 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013

13 June 2013

The consensus view is that the pace of global growth should accelerate through the course of 2013 as recessions end in Western Europe, Abenomics lifts Japanese growth, the US continues its moderate expansion and solid growth continues in the big emerging economies.

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013
Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013

12 June 2013

Economic activity in China appears to have slowed further during the month of May, although the moderation in growth continues to occur at a gradual pace - keeping concerns of a hard-landing at bay. Nevertheless, hopes of a meaningful acceleration in growth this year have faded.

Brief China Economic Update – 11 June 2013
Monthly Business Survey – May 2013

Monthly Business Survey – May 2013

11 June 2013

Business conditions remain at low levels (marginally higher) with unchanged mediocre confidence levels. Conditions better in wholesale, manufacturing and construction, but mining worsens. Any confidence gained from falling dollar and May rate cut have been undermined by domestic weakness

Monthly Business Survey – May 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013

11 June 2013

Global growth forecasts little changed. Still waiting to see firm evidence that the expected acceleration in activity through 2013 is beginning. Australian economy now at a watershed as mining investment slows and domestic economy struggles.

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013
Natural Gas Market Update – May 2013

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2013

4 June 2013

US natural gas prices trend higher on rising exporting prospects and forecasted warmer-than-average temperatures in the upcoming summer. British natural gas prices have returned to more normal levels as supply pressures ameliorate from restored Qatari deliveries and Norwegian production.

Natural Gas Market Update – May 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013

4 June 2013

Commodity markets have been mixed but overall sentiment remains bearish reflecting soft economic data in most regions. However, signs of improvement in the US economy could help to support commodity demand, but the effect on market expectations for Fed stimulus will create headwinds.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013
Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – April 2013

Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – April 2013

30 May 2013

For the year to April 2013, Australians spent $13.5 billion online - a level that is equivalent to around 6.0% of traditional retail spending. Online retail sales have continued to grow at a vastly stronger rate than the traditional bricks & mortar retail sector.

Online Retail Sales Index: Indepth report – April 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013

24 May 2013

With the exception of dairy, the prices of most other agricultural commodities have headed south this month. In April, the Rural Commodity Index rose marginally USD terms by 0.8% while fell by 2% in AUD terms. This month, lamb is our commodity in focus.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2013

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2013

23 May 2013

After a positive December quarter result, the March quarter result has relapsed into negative territory, to be more consistent with the negative pattern observed in the three quarters prior to the December quarter. On balance, more survey respondents reported poor conditions than good.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2013
China Economic Update – May 2013

China Economic Update – May 2013

23 May 2013

Partial economic indicators lack any strong indication that conditions are improving in China. While indicators for April came in broadly consistent with expectations, the market has revised expectations lower in response to a run of disappointing outcomes since the start of the year

China Economic Update – May 2013
2013 Federal Budget news, insights and expert analysis

2013 Federal Budget news, insights and expert analysis

16 May 2013

Understanding how the Federal Budget impacts you and your business can be complex. Our team of leading economists, tax and superannuation experts keep you up-to-date with all the latest news from the 2013 Federal Budget so we can help you get all your ducks in a row.

2013 Federal Budget news, insights and expert analysis
Federal Budget 2013 – Fact sheets

Federal Budget 2013 – Fact sheets

15 May 2013

With the Federal Budget being handed down yesterday, we want to ensure you understand what it means for you and your business. Our team of economists and industry experts have analysed what the Budget means overall for Australian businesses, as well as focussing on specific industries

Federal Budget 2013 – Fact sheets
US Economic Update – May 2013

US Economic Update – May 2013

15 May 2013

US GDP rose by 2.5% (annualized rate) in the March quarter. Underlying trend is modest growth. We are forecasting GDP growth of 2.1% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. While GDP growth will likely moderate in the current quarter it should strengthen in the second half of the year.

US Economic Update – May 2013
Understanding the budget impacts for the healthcare sector

Understanding the budget impacts for the healthcare sector

15 May 2013

Following the announcement, NAB’s panel of leading economists and industry healthcare experts have analysed the Governments’ much-anticipated 2013 Federal Budget, and here they share with Health View their breakdown of what it means for the healthcare sector.

Understanding the budget impacts for the healthcare sector
Personal and business tax changes from the Federal Budget

Personal and business tax changes from the Federal Budget

15 May 2013

NAB’s Senior Tax Advisor and panel of leading economists break down the tax impacts from the 2013 Federal Budget. Understand what the changes are for individuals and businesses including a recap on those that were previously announced.

Personal and business tax changes from the Federal Budget
What a difference a year makes! Alan Oster analyses the budget

What a difference a year makes! Alan Oster analyses the budget

15 May 2013

“What a difference a year makes”. NAB’s Group Chief Economist Alan Oster gives his detailed summary of this year’s Federal Budget. Who benefits from the Government’s proposed spending and who doesn’t, and what does it mean for the Australian Economy?

What a difference a year makes! Alan Oster analyses the budget
Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector

Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector

15 May 2013

This year’s budget contains a number of negatives for the resources sector. NAB’s Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, looks at where the government has targeted it’s efforts including impacts to exploration and many mining and energy programs.

Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector
New reforms to impact Big Business from the 2013 Federal Budget

New reforms to impact Big Business from the 2013 Federal Budget

15 May 2013

NAB’s Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, looks at the key reforms impacting Big business. The Federal Budget focuses on a crackdown on profit shifting, banning of dividend washing, reducing thin capitalisation safe harbour, removal of R&D and exploration incentives.

New reforms to impact Big Business from the 2013 Federal Budget
What does the Federal Budget 2013 mean for Agribusiness?

What does the Federal Budget 2013 mean for Agribusiness?

15 May 2013

Agribusiness has emerged as a net beneficiary of the budget, with the diesel fuel tax rebate – speculated as an area of possible cut prior to the release – remaining intact. That said, the overall gains are rather modest.

What does the Federal Budget 2013 mean for Agribusiness?
Is your business EOFY ready?

Is your business EOFY ready?

15 May 2013

For business owners, the end of financial year is the time to get things in order. Here are 11 strategies that could help you build and protect your personal and business wealth in a tax-effective manner.

Is your business EOFY ready?
Federal Budget 2013 impacts on small business

Federal Budget 2013 impacts on small business

14 May 2013

The Council of Small Business Australia’s (COSBOA) CEO, Peter Strong, provides his summary of what the Government’s Federal Budget announcement means for small businesses – do they stand to benefit or will they be worse off?

Federal Budget 2013 impacts on small business
Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013

14 May 2013

Chinese partial economic indicators were largely in line with expectations in April. However, we are yet to see signs that real activity is significantly picking up. We continue to expect growth of 8% in 2013, although risks remain skewed to the downside.

Brief China Economic Update – 14 May 2013
Monthly Business Survey – April 2013

Monthly Business Survey – April 2013

13 May 2013

Business conditions remain very difficult and confidence stumbles after showing signs of recovery earlier this year. Despite less negativity in retail & manufacturing, activity still very poor and labour market showing new signs of weakness.

Monthly Business Survey – April 2013
Alan Oster’s pre-budget overview

Alan Oster’s pre-budget overview

10 May 2013

NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides a pre-budget overview of the Australian economy focussing on what we’ve already seen from the Government and commentary on the deficit. Join us on Wednesday 15 May for a full budget breakdown.

Alan Oster’s pre-budget overview
Gold Market Update – April 2013

Gold Market Update – April 2013

6 May 2013

The gold price fell by 6.6% over April. Recent gold demand appears to have fallen sharply on news of soft US inflation, slowing Chinese growth as well as fears that highly indebted European countries like Cyprus may resort to selling gold reserves.

Gold Market Update – April 2013
Base Metals Market Update – April 2013

Base Metals Market Update – April 2013

6 May 2013

The improvement in metals prices seen over the second half of 2012 has been completely unwound, largely due to a lack of physical demand and market concerns over the outlook for demand. In aggregate, base metal prices were 5% lower over March and down more than 10% over the year.

Base Metals Market Update – April 2013
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

1 May 2013

ASX 300 show greater resilience than the broader economy in Q1, with conditions stable. Finance, Business & Property considerably stronger. Confidence rebounded but weaker forward orders & stocks point to potential softness in the next quarter.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013
US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2013

US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2013

30 April 2013

US GDP rose by 2.5% (annualized rate) in the March quarter. Underlying trend is modest growth. Growth in the quarter was largely driven by private consumption and a positive contribution from inventories. Fixed investment was weaker than the previous quarter but continues to grow

US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2013
China Economic Update – April 2013

China Economic Update – April 2013

30 April 2013

National accounts for the March quarter came in well below expectations, suggesting a more subdued economic recovery than previously thought. Real GDP growth eased to 7.7% yoy, from 7.9% last quarter. Consumption made the largest contribution to growth but it is too early to say an...

China Economic Update – April 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – March 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2013

29 April 2013

SME confidence & conditions edge higher in March quarter but still near post-GFC lows; SMEs more pessimistic than larger firms and activity also more subdued. Capacity utilisation falls to lowest level in history, despite tick up in forward orders. Signs lower borrowing rates are helping…

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2013
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013

24 April 2013

The Manufacturing Activity Index improved in Q1, up to neutral levels – driven largely by less negative levels for business confidence. The index implies no growth in quarterly manufacturing activity – which would represent a slowdown according to recent official data.

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013
CPI preview – March quarter 2013

CPI preview – March quarter 2013

24 April 2013

With little indication of inflation pressures emerging in the early months of 2013, we expect the CPI release (due 24 April) to confirm that underlying inflation remained subdued in March quarter 2013. We see underlying inflation remaining within the RBA’s target over the medium to longer…

CPI preview – March quarter 2013
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013

24 April 2013

Global financial markets are digesting latest Euro-zone crisis (Cyprus) where bank depositors are being forced to take losses. Pre-crisis global financial markets had been on a strong rally, especially against the background of still sluggish economic performance in the…

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013
Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2013

Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2013

23 April 2013

Exports from both Australia and New Zealand to the Asian Tiger economies (ASEAN, S Korea, HK and Taiwan) remain below their previous peaks, largely reflecting lower prices for key export commodities.

Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

19 April 2013

Business confidence lifts from late 2012 lows but still below average. That reflects better global confidence, stronger equity prices and lower borrowing rates at home. Conditions still subdued and with marked weakness in trade and consumer dependent sectors. Forward indicators …

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013
Brief China Economic Update -15 April 2013

Brief China Economic Update -15 April 2013

18 April 2013

According to Chinese National Accounts released today, the Chinese economy grew 1.6% in the March quarter, which is a 7.7% increase on the same period last year. This result is softer than expected and casts some doubt over expectations for a robust recovery in the Chinese economy...

Brief China Economic Update -15 April 2013
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2013

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2013

18 April 2013

Charitable giving slowed in the year to February 2013 as economic conditions and consumption weakened, and business and consumers became more cautious. The NAB Charitable Giving Index grew by 2.6% (12-month average) in February 2013 – down from 8.3% in the same period one year earlier.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2013
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2013

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2013

12 April 2013

Housing market sentiment rises across all states except Queensland. NAB Residential Property Index climbs sharply as more property professionals report capital and income growth. The out-performance of WA continues, but there was a big turnaround in expectations in Victoria. All states …

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Q1 2013
US Economic Update – April 2013

US Economic Update – April 2013

10 April 2013

Partial data for the March quarter are pointing to a noticeable pick-up in GDP growth following only weak growth in the December quarter. We are expecting GDP growth of 2.4% (revised from 2.2%) in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. While we expect growth to slow modestly in the June quarter, it ....

US Economic Update – April 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013

10 April 2013

Our global forecasts remain little changed at 3.3% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2014. Renewed Euro-zone instability has taken a toll on global equity markets, which had strengthened quite markedly since late 2012, especially when compared to global economic activity and commodity markets.

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013

10 April 2013

Commodity markets have turned bearish again following softer than expected economic data outcomes and concerns over a government crack down on Chinese real estate. The Cyprus banking crisis has also dampened confidence, while the terms of the EU bailout, and subsequent rhetoric has …

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013

9 April 2013

Global growth forecasts unchanged. Activity still sluggish but set to accelerate in second half of 2013. Financial markets digesting latest Euro-zone crisis (Cyprus) and new Japanese monetary policy.

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013
Monthly Business Survey – March 2013

Monthly Business Survey – March 2013

9 April 2013

Business conditions fall to weakest level in almost four years but confidence steady. Previous surge in activity in consumer sectors retail & manufacturing unwinds, with signs lower interest rates need more time to fully work through economy.

Monthly Business Survey – March 2013
Oil Market Update – March 2013

Oil Market Update – March 2013

9 April 2013

Oil prices weaken in March, reflecting European crisis fears following Cyprus deal, a recovery in North Sea oil production and a return of South Sudan oil exports. Most notable declines were recorded for Brent and Tapis oil. Global oil demand forecasts for 2013 revised down reflecting …

Oil Market Update – March 2013
Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013

Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013

9 April 2013

The recent rally in bulk commodity prices has stalled with both coal and iron ore prices giving back some of their recent gains; average monthly prices declined in March. Global steel production has continued to grow at a good pace in recent months, driven by increasing Chinese …

Bulk Commodities Update – March 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2013

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2013

3 April 2013

Online Retail Sales Index weaker in February. Sales grew by +19% yoy in the month, the weakest growth rate since May 2012. For the twelve months ending February 2013, Australia’s online retail spending totaled $13.1 billion. This level is equivalent to around 5.9% of Australia’s …

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – February 2013
Chinese Monthly Update – 22 March 2013

Chinese Monthly Update – 22 March 2013

25 March 2013

In this months economic update we revisit our outlook for the Chinese economy and what we can expect to see from the People’s Bank of China over the forecast horizon.

Chinese Monthly Update – 22 March 2013
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2012

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2012

22 March 2013

Post‐farmgate agribusiness conditions lifted in the December quarter to be moderately positive after three consecutive quarters of decline. Customer demand, availability of suitable labour, government policy and regulation to act as constraints. Medium‐term expectations improved…

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2012
State Economic Update – March 2013

State Economic Update – March 2013

20 March 2013

The disparity between business conditions that became increasingly pronounced following the GFC has narrowed over recent quarters; however, the convergence of conditions readings largely reflects a weakening in previously stronger performing industries and regions, suggesting…

State Economic Update – March 2013
China Economic Update – March 2013

China Economic Update – March 2013

15 March 2013

It has been an eventful month with the annual National People’s Congress (NPC) getting underway early last week, while a number of policies to curb property prices were also announced in the lead up to the gathering – triggering a sharp correction in equity markets.

China Economic Update – March 2013
US Economic Update – March 2013

US Economic Update – March 2013

15 March 2013

Economic (GDP) growth appears to have resumed in March quarter after December quarter lull. We are expecting GDP growth of 2.2% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. Growth to be supported by some fading headwinds, growing business investment and continued recovery in the housing market.

US Economic Update – March 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013

13 March 2013

Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook has firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best.

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013

12 March 2013

Global economy still sluggish in late 2012 but equities strengthen on stronger risk appetite and expectations of sustained global recovery. Partial data suggest better start to 2013; we still see marginally better growth in major advanced economies this year, accelerating in 2014.

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013
Monthly Business Survey – February 2013

Monthly Business Survey – February 2013

12 March 2013

Business conditions & confidence both edge down in February. High AUD hurting manufacturing and lack of non-mining demand weighing on most sectors. Large falls in orders, poor capacity use, and weak capex plans (esp. mining) don’t augur well for near-term (weak) domestic demand.

Monthly Business Survey – February 2013
NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?

NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?

12 March 2013

The recent capex and exploration expectations data suggest that mining investment may be approaching a turning point. A decline is inevitable: the question is when and how fast. On the basis of past engineering construction commencements, there are reasons to believe …

NAB Research – Will mining investment fall off a cliff?
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2013

8 March 2013

Global and domestic financial markets have continued to improve as confidence in the global economic outlook firms. Strong underlying fundamentals of the US economy and signs of recovery in China have encouraged a more bullish market outlook. Commodity markets are less buoyant.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2013
Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013

5 March 2013

Once again, movements in commodity prices have been dominated by events in China and growing speculation over the timed withdrawal of QE stimulus by the US Fed. With market participants on the sidelines throughout most of February due to many of the Asian economies celebrating the …

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Dec 2012

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Dec 2012

22 February 2013

NAB Commercial Property Index increased slightly to -17 points in Q4’12 but performance varied across individual property markets. CBD hotel index rose strongly, but retail and office indices hit new lows as economy slowed. Recovery expectations also postponed in all markets …

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Dec 2012
China Economic Update – February 2013

China Economic Update – February 2013

20 February 2013

As is usually the case for this time of year, the seasonal impacts from the Lunar New Year holiday are reaping havoc with China’s economic data. In addition to the obvious seasonal impacts, statistical authorities also refrain from releasing some of the more closely watched statistics …

China Economic Update – February 2013
US Economic Update – February 2013

US Economic Update – February 2013

20 February 2013

US GDP fell in the December quarter but the underlying trend is modest growth. Extremely loose monetary policy likely to continue for an extended period. Expect QE3 monthly asset purchases will finish at end of 2013. Fed funds rate likely on hold until late 2015/early 2016

US Economic Update – February 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – December 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2012

19 February 2013

SME confidence & conditions weaken a touch in Q4 and poor relative to history; sentiment and activity of SMEs a touch weaker than their larger counterparts. Forward indicators remain subdued implying little upturn in near-term activity. Weakness in manufacturing, retail, wholesale and ….

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2012
Monthly Business Survey – January 2013

Monthly Business Survey – January 2013

12 February 2013

Business confidence hangs on to gains made last month on reduced global fears. Business conditions improve a touch, but still poor. Signs that previously stronger industries are being dragged down by weakness elsewhere. Capacity utilisation now lowest since 2001 and forward orders remain …

Monthly Business Survey – January 2013
Asian Tigers Economic Update – February 2013

Asian Tigers Economic Update – February 2013

11 February 2013

After having stalled through much of last year, the process of trade integration between Australasia and East Asia regained momentum at the end of 2012 – especially exports to China. Exports from both Australia and New Zealand to the “Tiger” economies remain below their earlier levels.

Asian Tigers Economic Update – February 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – December 2012

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2012

7 February 2013

Business conditions weaken to lowest level since June quarter 2009; weakness very apparent in construction, manufacturing and now mining. Forward indicators worsen. Confidence edges lower and very subdued – especially in mining. Medium-term expectations poor and capex lower again.

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2012
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2012

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2012

5 February 2013

Online Retail Sales Index dipped in December (from Nov peak) – a seasonal trend around Christmas. Sales up 23% yoy, but slowing implying a ‘weaker online’ December. In 2012, Australia’s online retail spending was $12.8 billion. This level is around 5.8% of the size of Australia’s.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – December 2012
US Economic Update – US GDP 2012 Q4

US Economic Update – US GDP 2012 Q4

4 February 2013

US GDP fell by 0.1% (annualized rate) in the December quarter following quite solid growth in the previous quarter. Underlying trend is modest growth. The quarterly decline reflects a big drop in federal defence spending and slower inventory growth as well as a decline in net exports.

US Economic Update – US GDP 2012 Q4
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Dec 2012

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Dec 2012

1 February 2013

NAB Residential Property Index rises in Q4’12 as the rate of decline in national house prices slows and rents grow. Property professionals expect mild house price gains in the next 1-2 years, with expectations for capital gains highest in WA and weakest in SA/NT.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – Dec 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013

1 February 2013

Financial and commodity markets have generally strengthened recently, following the last minute agreement to hold off the US fiscal cliff. Signs of strengthening in China’s manufacturing sector has also provided some confidence about the outlook for global growth.

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013

31 January 2013

Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best. Central bank action in the Euro-zone, US and Japan has boosted market hopes

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013
China Monthly Economic Update – 29 January 2013

China Monthly Economic Update – 29 January 2013

31 January 2013

National accounts for the December quarter came in slightly stronger than expected, suggesting the economy has achieved a soft landing, at least for now. Real GDP growth rose to 7.9% yoy, ending seven consecutive quarters of slowing growth. Growth for the year came in at 7.8%

China Monthly Economic Update – 29 January 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013

29 January 2013

Global economy sluggish in late 2012 but signs of an upturn, that gathers pace through next two years. Financial markets strengthen reflecting “risk on” as confidence in global outlook strengthens in wake of central bank action. Emerging market economies will still drive global growth.

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013
Monthly Business Survey – December 2012

Monthly Business Survey – December 2012

29 January 2013

Business confidence posts a sharp jump in December, but not so activity and forward indicators, which remain poor - particularly wholesale, manufacturing, retail and construction. Better external sentiment (temporary avoidance of the US ‘fiscal cliff’), strengthening in Chinese data

Monthly Business Survey – December 2012
Brief China Economic Update – 18 January 2013

Brief China Economic Update – 18 January 2013

22 January 2013

Today’s economic data releases for China came in broadly in line with expectations, providing evidence that the economic slowdown may have bottomed in the September quarter. The national accounts show that the economy expanded by 7.9% over the year to the December quarter...

Brief China Economic Update – 18 January 2013
CPI preview – December quarter 2012

CPI preview – December quarter 2012

22 January 2013

We expect the December quarter CPI release (due 23 January) to confirm that inflationary pressures remained moderate in the final months of 2012. We expect a core inflation rate of 0.7% (2.4% through the year; including the impact of carbon), unchanged from the September quarter...

CPI preview – December quarter 2012
US Economic Update – January 2013

US Economic Update – January 2013

21 January 2013

The ‘fiscal cliff’ has been substantially scaled back. The fate of scheduled automatic budget cuts (delayed for only two months) is still subject to negotiation and an increase in the debt limit is also still to be agreed. The U.S. economy continues to track along at a moderate pace...

US Economic Update – January 2013
NAB changes interest rate forecasts for 2013

NAB changes interest rate forecasts for 2013

21 January 2013

RBA now expected to cut by 75 points to 2¼% as economy struggles. With the economy continuing to weaken and unemployment set to rise noticeably through 2013 the RBA will need to cut significantly further than previously expected in 2013.

NAB changes interest rate forecasts for 2013
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2012

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2012

9 January 2013

Online Retail Sales Index surges ahead of Christmas, but year-on-year growth only edged higher to 27%. In the twelve months to November 2012, Australians spent around $12.6 billion on online retail. This level is equivalent to 5.7% of the scale of traditional bricks & mortar retail

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – November 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – December 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – December 2012

18 December 2012

China’s economic indicators for November continued the broadly improving trend seen recently, supporting our expectation of a modest recovery in GDP growth this quarter. Government investment stimulus and accommodative monetary policy will help offset headwinds from external sectors.

Chinese Monthly Update – December 2012
Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012

Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012

12 December 2012

Although interest rates are historically low in the advanced economies and central banks have stepped up liquidity injections, their pace of economic growth remains very weak. The big emerging economies are driving global growth, and it looks as if their economies are stabilising.

Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012

12 December 2012

The Australian economy appears to have stumbled into the December quarter. For agricultural commodities, markets have been fairly mixed over the past month. Grains prices have softened a little on expected demand rationing while sugar and cotton remain subdued.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012

11 December 2012

Global growth still sluggish and expected to stay that way in 2013. US growth is moderate, Japan and Euro-zone weak, emerging economies now driving global expansion. Australian economy slowed in Q3 and may soften again in Q4.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012
Monthly Business Survey – November 2012

Monthly Business Survey – November 2012

11 December 2012

The brakes have firmly tightened on activity in November; business conditions very weak in construction, retail, manufacturing and wholesale. Signs of trouble ahead with confidence slumping to lowest level since April 2009, with little hint of a pre-Christmas revival

Monthly Business Survey – November 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – November 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – November 2012

10 December 2012

China’s economy showed further signs of steadying in October with most of the partial indicators recording an improvement. Year-ended growth in production, retail sales, fixed investment and exports all accelerated in the month. In contrast, bank credit came in below expectations.

Chinese Monthly Update – November 2012
Economic Comment: US Fiscal Cliff

Economic Comment: US Fiscal Cliff

10 December 2012

The fiscal cliff refers to the large fiscal contraction that will occur early in January 2013 due to increases in taxes and reductions in spending under existing law. Given the state of the economy and the limited ability of monetary policy to respond

Economic Comment: US Fiscal Cliff
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2012

28 November 2012

Australia’s online retail sales are continuing to climb, up to A$12.3 billion in the year ended October 2012, but for now the share of total spending is still modest, at around 5.6%. The rate of growth in online sales has strengthened considerably over the last six months.

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – October 2012
China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia

China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia

21 November 2012

China’s meteoric rise to becoming one of the world’s economic superpowers has redefined global economic growth, specifically, the fundamental drivers of commodity markets. China’s advancement has had significant ramifications for commodity exporting economies, including Australia.

China’s Impact on Commodity Markets: Implications for Australia
Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012

Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012

21 November 2012

The post farm gate agribusiness conditions index posted a decent turnaround following a very weak June quarter. Driving the result was an increase across the three key components that make up the index, with the sharpest turnaround being trading conditions.

Post farm gate agribusiness survey – September 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012

13 November 2012

Global growth still sluggish with major divergences between different regions. Below trend growth expected to continue into 2013 as world economy averts major risks in US and Euro-zone. Australian economy stumbles into Q4, with growth clearly below trend.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012
Monthly Business Survey – October 2012

Monthly Business Survey – October 2012

13 November 2012

Business conditions stumble to weakest level in more than three years, with wholesale and manufacturing conditions especially subdued. Confidence also edges lower. Activity forecasts unchanged but 25bp February rate cut on the cards, providing modest Q4 CPI.

Monthly Business Survey – October 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012

13 November 2012

China’s strong import program is one of several global factors colliding to underpin wheat prices through the end of the year and into 2013, according to the latest Rural Commodities Wrap, which this month focuses on wheat. NAB estimates the crop will come in at 20.6 million tonnes

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012
US Economic Update – November 2012

US Economic Update – November 2012

13 November 2012

The US economy is only growing at a modest rate. GDP grew by 0.5% qoq (or 2.0% annualized) in the September quarter, and we expect similar growth for the present quarter. Hurricane Sandy is a downside risk for December quarter growth; but upside risk for subsequent quarters.

US Economic Update – November 2012
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – September 2012

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – September 2012

13 November 2012

NAB Commercial Property Index hits new low of -19 points in Q3 2012 as domestic economy passes through a soft patch with business conditions weaker and forward indicators concerning. Retail participants least optimistic, but expectations soften most in office and CBD Hotel markets.

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – September 2012
Gold Market Update – October 2012

Gold Market Update – October 2012

6 November 2012

The gold price rose by a spectacular 7 per cent over September. Some of the strength has subsequently been unwound, with the gold price easing to around US$1,710 per ounce in early November. We have lifted our forecasts a little

Gold Market Update – October 2012
Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012

5 November 2012

Bulk commodity prices have been mixed recently with coal prices generally stabilising around recent lows, while iron ore prices have performed surprisingly well, supported by recent signs of improvement in the Chinese economy. Growth in global crude steel production remains subdued

Bulk Commodities Update – October 2012
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012

1 November 2012

Australian online retail sales up 23 percent yoy in September, but the level is still modest compared to traditional sales. Domestic online retailers continue to innovate – in an effort to develop or maintain a competitive advantage.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012
US Economic Update – US GDP – Q2 2012

US Economic Update – US GDP – Q2 2012

30 October 2012

US GDP grew by 0.5% qoq in the September quarter, stronger than in the previous quarter but still only modest. The strengthening in growth was due to consumption, housing investment and government spending picking up. Of concern, however, was a decline in business investment.

US Economic Update – US GDP – Q2 2012
Base Metals Market Update – October 2012

Base Metals Market Update – October 2012

30 October 2012

Metals prices received a significant boost over September, following a suite of policy stimulus announcements by some of the major central banks. In aggregate, base metal prices rose by 10 per cent over September but were 7 per cent lower than levels one year earlier.

Base Metals Market Update – October 2012
Oil Market Update – October 2012

Oil Market Update – October 2012

30 October 2012

Oil prices weaken in October but remain quite high. Attention now shifting towards the Asian economies, which have surprised markets on the downside in recent months. Near-term forecasts lifted on geo-political risk, 2013 forecasts left unchanged.

Oil Market Update – October 2012
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2012

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2012

29 October 2012

The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. It aims to share business insights and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – October 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – October 2012

29 October 2012

China’s economic growth decelerated for the seventh consecutive quarter. However, quarter on quarter growth came in stronger than expected and revisions to previous quarters suggest the near-term growth momentum has actually improved.

Chinese Monthly Update – October 2012
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2012

25 October 2012

SME confidence and conditions better in Q3 but still below average; sentiment of SMEs now in line with their larger counterparts but activity, capacity utilisation and new orders continue to under perform. Strength in recreation & personal services and transport a consistent theme

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2012
Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012

Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012

23 October 2012

The Manufacturing Activity Index was unchanged in Q3 – despite diverging trends in the index components – remaining at negative levels. The index indicates further falls in Manufacturing growth in the quarter, which remains burdened by global economic trends and the strength of the dollar

Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012
Charitable Giving Index – July 2012

Charitable Giving Index – July 2012

23 October 2012

The first NAB Charitable Giving Index shows that charitable giving is growing, despite a softening domestic economy, flat employment growth and persistent consumer cautiousness. NAB and data analytics firm Quantium reviewed donations made by credit card, direct debit, BPAY and EFTPOS

Charitable Giving Index – July 2012
Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2012

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2012

18 October 2012

Business conditions improve in the quarter but still soft. However, Monthly survey results suggest conditions weakened towards the end of the quarter. Forward indicators remain very weak. Confidence up a touch but still at downbeat levels – especially mining

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2012
State Economic Update – October 2012

State Economic Update – October 2012

16 October 2012

Economic conditions in NSW are likely to improve only marginally over the coming year with conditions within the state likely to vary wildly. By all measures, the Victorian economy continues to under perform the national average, with SFD growth slowing to 2.1 per cent in 2011-12

State Economic Update – October 2012
US Economic Update – October 2012

US Economic Update – October 2012

15 October 2012

GDP growth was only 0.3% qoq in the June quarter and partial indictors suggest that is was only slightly higher in the September quarter. This is consistent with the finding of the Federal Reserve’s ‘Beige book’ released this week.

US Economic Update – October 2012
Monthly Business Survey – September 2011

Monthly Business Survey – September 2011

11 October 2012

Conditions recover and businesses take comfort from better sales, a lower AUD and talk of interest rate cuts. Global uncertainty still weighing on near-term activity indicators.  Business conditions improved in September, after edging down over the previous two months, with the outcome suggesting that the Australian economy may be stabilising. However, there are still signs […]

Monthly Business Survey – September 2011
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – September 2012

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – September 2012

11 October 2012

NAB Residential Property Index turns positive in Q3’12 as property professionals see downward correction in national house prices slowing. Market expected to recover in the next year, with prices rising 0.4% nationally. Prices to rise in all states except Victoria.

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – September 2012
Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012

11 October 2012

Over September, minerals and energy prices have been assisted higher by central bank monetary easing and various other stimulus measures taken by policy makers around the world. Bad news has become good, and good news has become ‘bad’ for markets.

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012
Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012

Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012

11 October 2012

The latest business surveys suggest that conditions in the big advanced economies have stabilised after the softening in growth that took place since late 2011. Monthly trade and industrial indicators still point to a broad-based slowing across the emerging economie

Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012
Monthly Business Survey – September 2012

Monthly Business Survey – September 2012

9 October 2012

Business confidence recovers modestly but still down beat – especially mining. Business conditions disappoint – with struggling retail and wholesale falling significantly. Forward orders noticeably weaker and capacity utilisation trending down - indicative of weakening demand.

Monthly Business Survey – September 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2012

9 October 2012

Global economy slowing but recent advanced economy surveys show stabilisation. Broad-based slowing under way across emerging economies. Global forecasts a touch lower in 2013 but risks remain (US “fiscal cliff”). Australian economy softening to below trend amid restructuring stresses.

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2012
Online Retail Sales Index Monthly update – August 2012

Online Retail Sales Index Monthly update – August 2012

3 October 2012

Growth in online spending remains strong - relative to the past year - with spending increasing by around +22% year-on-year in August. This level is slightly softer than in July. In the year to August 2012, Australians spent a total of $11.9 billion in online retail sales. This figure is equivalent to 5.4% of traditional bricks & mortar retail spending (excluding cafes, restaurants and takeaway food) for the year ended July 2012.

Online Retail Sales Index Monthly update – August 2012
Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012

Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012

28 September 2012

A monthly snapshot of NAB’s global and domestic economic outlook. The Bigger Picture – A Global & Australian Economic Perspective Global: The global economy is experiencing a broad-based slowdown with both the advanced and emerging economies reporting a softening in growth. Conditions vary between regions with recession in Western Europe, slowdowns in China, India and […]

Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012
RBA to ease further in coming months

RBA to ease further in coming months

27 September 2012

We have changed our forecast and now see the RBA moving to cut the cash rate again in the coming months, probably by a cumulative 50 basis points; What has changed is that in recent weeks the RBA has signalled concern about the mix of the sustained drop in commodity and ongoing high AUD; Other […]

RBA to ease further in coming months
US Economic Update

US Economic Update

27 September 2012

The Fed has announced further, aggressive, stimulus – extended forward guidance and a new round of QE. The Fed is also signalling that monetary policy stimulus will be maintained for longer than would normally be the case when the recovery strengthens. The latest indicators continue to suggest that the U.S. is experiencing only modest growth. […]

US Economic Update
IMF World Economic Outlook – September 2011

IMF World Economic Outlook – September 2011

22 September 2012

The IMF has revised down its forecasts of world growth, particularly for advanced economies. Its Australian forecasts have also been downgraded, to 1.8% in 2011 (from 3.0% in April – catch up after weaker than expected GDP in H1) and 3.3% in 2012 (from 3.5%).  For 2011 NABs forecast is 1.9%, not materially different from […]

IMF World Economic Outlook – September 2011
Chinese Monthly Update – September 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – September 2012

18 September 2012

NAB’s Global Economic Research provides up to date commentary on global economic developments in the USA, Asia, New Zealand. China’s partial economic indicators for the month suggest that conditions haven’t quite stabilised as expected, but neither have they deteriorated significantly. Our previous expectation that economic growth would remain unchanged from Q2 now looks unlikely. Recent […]

Chinese Monthly Update – September 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: June 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: June 2012

12 September 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales growth recorded […]

Online Retail Sales Index: June 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts

Global & Australian Forecasts

11 September 2012

NAB’s Global and Australian Forecast provides a monthly snapshot of NAB’s global and domestic economic outlook. Global economy still slowing with softening across advanced and emerging economies. Growth set to pick-up in 2013 as worst economic risks averted. Australian economy still drifting through soft patch with falling commodity prices now weighing on mining. But investment […]

Global & Australian Forecasts
Monthly Business Survey – August 2012

Monthly Business Survey – August 2012

11 September 2012

Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions improve on the back of strengthening trading and profitability – especially in interest sensitive sectors. But confidence falls […]

Monthly Business Survey – August 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2012

31 August 2012

Global economy slows with softening evident across advanced and emerging economies. Worst risks should be averted and global growth to pick-up slightly in 2013. Australian economy at trend but softening, while confidence helped by Euro-zone comments and lower interest rates. Labour market and orders still soft but activity to hold up sufficiently to circumvent need […]

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012

24 August 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global growth weighed down by weakness in big developed economies, emerging markets also slowing Australian farm sector mixed but likely to benefit from US drought, which could add around $6 billion in export incomes to the […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012
Implications of the US Drought – August 2012

Implications of the US Drought – August 2012

23 August 2012

Drought has led to big downward revisions to US crop production. Impact on farm sector incomes will be mitigated by several factors, particularly the large expected increases in crop prices. However, these price rises will squeeze livestock and dairy producers. Farm sector will be a headwind to US GDP growth in 2012 similar to that […]

Implications of the US Drought – August 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – August 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – August 2012

16 August 2012

Partial economic indicators are starting to stabilise somewhat, but the overall trend in the data was disappointing for the month of July given our expectations for a slight improvement in economic growth over H2 2012. Industrial production softened further along with nominal retail sales, while export growth and bank loans were both well below expectations. […]

Chinese Monthly Update – August 2012
Monthly Business Survey – July 2012

Monthly Business Survey – July 2012

14 August 2012

Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions worsen in the face of poor trading and profits, with weakness particularly evident in retail and wholesale – […]

Monthly Business Survey – July 2012
US Economic Update – August 2012

US Economic Update – August 2012

10 August 2012

US GDP grew by only a modest 0.4% (or 1.5% annualized) in the June quarter, a slightly lower rate of growth than in the previous quarter. The composition of GDP was not positive, with the inventory cycle likely to be a moderate headwind in the near term. We expect growth to be similar in the […]

US Economic Update – August 2012
Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012

3 August 2012

US natural gas lift on winding down inventories (after seasonal adjustment), and increased consumption due to shift away from coal to gas in electricity generation for summer European prices weaken as increased Russian supplies, soft demand and reduced arbitrage opportunities to Asia see more LNG enter European natural gas market Prices in Asia Pacific surge […]

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2012
Gold market update – August 2012

Gold market update – August 2012

3 August 2012

London 2012 Olympics upon us but the boost to gold demand from Australian athletes still quite limited. The gold price eased by 0.4 per cent over July, and following a rally late last week, has fallen back to around US$1,590 per ounce. It is difficult to know what direction the gold price will take in […]

Gold market update – August 2012
Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012

Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012

3 August 2012

Bulk commodity prices have fallen noticeably in response to poor demand for steel and electricity, and improving supplies of the commodities. Both coal and iron ore prices have fallen to around their lowest levels since late 2009, consistent with Chinese GDP growth which slowed to its lowest rate in over three years in the June […]

Bulk Commodities Update – August 2012
US GDP – Q2 2012

US GDP – Q2 2012

31 July 2012

US GDP grew by only a modest 0.4% (or 1.5% annualized) in the June quarter, a slightly lower rate of growth than in the previous quarter.

US GDP – Q2 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2012

30 July 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. With traditional sales totalling […]

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – July 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – July 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – July 2012

18 July 2012

The Chinese economy continues to slow, albeit at a relatively controlled pace. Real GDP growth eased to 7.6 per cent, broadly in line with expectations, but the slowest pace in more than three years. Nevertheless, partial economic indicators are providing tentative signs of stabilising, with new loans increasing, while fixed asset investment and real retail […]

Chinese Monthly Update – July 2012
US Economic Update – July 2012

US Economic Update – July 2012

13 July 2012

The recent softness in economic indicators continued over the last month, and now point to GDP growth in the June quarter being slightly weaker than the March quarter’s modest pace. While we still expect GDP growth to strengthen in the second half of the year we have trimmed our growth expectations for 2012 (from 2.2% […]

US Economic Update – July 2012
Monthly Business Survey – June 2012

Monthly Business Survey – June 2012

10 July 2012

Business conditions improve slightly but overall activity remains soft; forward orders and employment conditions imply weak near-term demand. Confidence falls marginally, implying little relief from RBA rate cuts; European uncertainty and new taxes may be weighing on sentiment. Government handouts provide some respite to consumer dependant sectors but benefits may be short-lived – time will […]

Monthly Business Survey – June 2012
Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

Retail drives ASX 300 business conditions lower in Q2, with a weaker trend tipped for Q3. Business conditions deteriorated across the economy in the second quarter of 2012, with declines recorded among firms in both the ASX 300 survey and the broader Quarterly Business Survey (QBS). ASX 300 firms recorded a net balance of 0 […]

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012

30 June 2012

The NAB Manufacturing Activity Index provides detailed analysis of activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector and has been constructed to replicate quarterly movements in activity within the sector. The Manufacturing Activity Index* eased further in Q2, remaining in negative territory – despite some divergent trends in individual sub-sectors. The index implies declines in quarter-on-quarter growth in […]

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012
China’s role in Australia’s economy – 1 June 2012

China’s role in Australia’s economy – 1 June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB takes a closer look at the growing economic integration of the Australian economy to growth in the Chinese economy. Australia’s growth is becoming increasingly sensitive to the strength of the Chinese economy China’s growth looks to be heading towards a soft landing But what would happen if growth is de-railed? It seems likely that […]

China’s role in Australia’s economy – 1 June 2012
Quarterly SME Survey – June 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence & conditions deteriorate further. Weakness in small firms increasingly pronounced compared to their larger counterparts – weakness in manufacturing, retail and construction a persistent theme across all small firm […]

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2012
Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB’s Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey focuses on conditions in the Australian residential property market. NAB’s Residential Property Index fell in the June quarter, weighed down by weaker conditions in Victoria and NSW. The national housing market is expected to remain soft over the next year with property professionals predicting a -0.7% decline in house […]

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey – June 2012
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB’s Quarterly Agribusiness Survey covers economic and business conditions in Australia’s post farm gate agribusiness sector. Post farm gate business conditions weaken through June. Post farm gate agribusiness conditions decline further in June, due mostly to a large fall in customer confidence Medium term expectations continue to wind back, pulling capex expectations along with them […]

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2012
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB’s Commercial Property Index slips to a new low of -16 points in Q2’12 as fewer property professionals expect positive capital  or income returns. Retail and industrial market participants are very pessimistic, but expectations are also softer in office and CBD hotel markets. WA is the most optimistic state in nearly all sectors and Victoria is […]

Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2012
US Fiscal Policy – 22 June 2012

US Fiscal Policy – 22 June 2012

22 June 2012

Under current law there will be a large fiscal contraction in the United States in 2013.  If it went ahead it could significantly impact the economy. However, experience suggests that many of the spending cuts and tax increases will be deferred. We expect the fiscal headwind in 2013 to be similar to that of 2012. […]

US Fiscal Policy – 22 June 2012
Base Metals Market Update – June 2012

Base Metals Market Update – June 2012

21 June 2012

In aggregate, base metal prices fell by 4 per cent over May and were 19 per cent lower than levels one year earlier. Currently, prices for most base metals are below their May averages. Metals prices have been volatile as a result of events in Europe and growth concerns in China and the US. Relief […]

Base Metals Market Update – June 2012
Oil Market Update

Oil Market Update

21 June 2012

Oil prices continue to soften on ongoing concerns surrounding the Euro-zone, Spanish bond yields rising above 7 per cent and softening US and Chinese economic activity Oil price forecasts revised down, reflecting ongoing market concerns surrounding the Euro-zone, weaker growth forecasts for the US and China and easing supply-side concerns Global crude oil market loosening […]

Oil Market Update
Quarterly Business Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2012

19 June 2012

Business conditions weaken; forward orders and other indicators of near-term demand still soft. Confidence slips further, with heightened European uncertainty seemingly outweighing relief provided from RBA rate cuts – new taxes may also be weighing on sentiment. Business conditions weakened in the June quarter, following modestly better activity over recent quarters. Official ABS data suggest […]

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – June 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – June 2012

15 June 2012

The PBoC cut benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25bp this month in response to a clear moderation in inflation and soft demand conditions. Domestic demand may receive support from recent stimulus measures, but global uncertainty (particularly in Europe) will continue to pose headwinds. The partial economic indicators for May continued to be relatively soft, […]

Chinese Monthly Update – June 2012
Monthly Business Survey – May 2012

Monthly Business Survey – May 2012

12 June 2012

Business conditions now the weakest in three years: mining and construction down sharply. Confidence falters on global Greek exit fears, weak orders and negative reaction to the May Budget. Indicators of demand imply softer near-term activity and more jobs shedding in weak sectors. RBA to cut again in coming months.  Business confidence deteriorated sharply in […]

Monthly Business Survey – May 2012
US Economic Update – June 2012

US Economic Update – June 2012

8 June 2012

The recent weakness in jobs growth continued into May. It is probably, in part, a correction to the surprisingly strong growth in early 2012. Indicators suggest that June quarter GDP growth will maintain the previous quarter’s modest pace. While we still expect GDP growth to strengthen in the second half of the year we have […]

US Economic Update – June 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012

1 June 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global agricultural commodity prices come under pressure as European concerns sees heightened financial market volatility Australian poultry industry on firm footing, buoyed by rising productivity and solid growth in per capita consumption Decline in domestic pig meat […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: May 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: May 2012

31 May 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales growth continued […]

Online Retail Sales Index: May 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – May 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – May 2012

16 May 2012

Partial indicators for April were disappointing across the board relative to optimistic market expectations, but we remain happy with our longheld views for China’s growth outlook. Slowing activity has been driven by both an easing in domestic demand, and weak external demand – global economic uncertainty, particularly in Europe, is likely to provide an ongoing […]

Chinese Monthly Update – May 2012
US Economic Update – 11 May 2012

US Economic Update – 11 May 2012

11 May 2012

US GDP grew by 0.5% (or 2.2% annualized) in the March quarter, confirming that the US economy is growing at a modest-to-moderate pace. We expect GDP in the current quarter to grow at a similar rate to the March quarter and then strengthen in the second half of the year. We have left our forecasts […]

US Economic Update – 11 May 2012
Monthly Business Survey – April 2012

Monthly Business Survey – April 2012

7 May 2012

Businesses remain confident of better near-term activity but actual conditions weaken in April – with multi-speed element widening again. Forward indicators remain lacklustre, with a material decline in capacity utilisation signalling increased slack in the economy – and further weakness in the labour market ahead. More rate action to come, although how much depends on […]

Monthly Business Survey – April 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – April 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – April 2012

30 April 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. The value of the […]

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – April 2012
US GDP – Q1 2012

US GDP – Q1 2012

30 April 2012

US GDP grew by 0.5% (or 2.2% annualized) in the March quarter, confirming that the US economy is growing at a modest-to-moderate pace. There was mixed news on the composition of GDP with inventories making a further contribution to growth and business investment declining. However, consumption and housing investment were strong and there was a […]

US GDP – Q1 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012

20 April 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global agricultural commodity prices under pressure from resumption of ‘risk-off’ attitude pervading financial markets Australian wheat crop of 26.1 million tonnes predicted on good subsoil moisture, but acreage lost to canola Wheat prices […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2012
Chinese Monthly Update – April 2012

Chinese Monthly Update – April 2012

20 April 2012

The Chinese economy decelerated further at the start of 2012, with real GDP growth at its slowest pace in around three years (rising 8.1 per cent over the year to the March quarter – NAB forecast was for 8.2 per cent). By component, consumption made the largest contribution to growth over the year, while investment […]

Chinese Monthly Update – April 2012
Quarterly business survey – March quarter 2012

Quarterly business survey – March quarter 2012

19 April 2012

The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions edge higher but lack of jobs growth likely to keep near-term activity fairly soft. Confidence slips back and remains below trend. Forward […]

Quarterly business survey – March quarter 2012
Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2012

Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2012

13 April 2012

Growth slowed considerably in the Asian Tiger economies late last year and remains relatively sluggish in 2012. However, some partial indicators suggest that conditions have improved modestly more recently, bolstered by improvements in the US economy, and an apparent v-shape recovery in Thailand from last years floods. However, demand for exports from advanced economies is […]

Asian Tigers Economic Update – April 2012
USA Economic Update – 12 April 2012

USA Economic Update – 12 April 2012

12 April 2012

It is too early to say that the disappointing March jobs outcome signals a shift to a much slower pace of jobs growth but some downwards correction was expected.

USA Economic Update – 12 April 2012
Monthly Business Survey – March 2012

Monthly Business Survey – March 2012

10 April 2012

Confidence and conditions grind higher but with little jobs growth. Forward indicators marginally improve but remain subdued. Multi speed economy still to the fore – with non mining edging up a touch. Domestic forecasts edge lower with unemployment up. Rates view unchanged. Businesses appeared slightly more confident about near-term activity in March than in February, […]

Monthly Business Survey – March 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: March 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: March 2012

31 March 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Growth in online sales […]

Online Retail Sales Index: March 2012
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey

30 March 2012

NAB’s Quarterly Agribusiness Survey covers economic and business conditions in Australia’s post farm gate agribusiness sector. Post farm gate business conditions pull back in early 2012 Post farm gate business conditions fall on lower product prices, availability of materials and labour, falling export sales Medium term expectations pull back as recent results see sector become […]

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey
Quarterly SME Survey – March 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2012

29 March 2012

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Seasonal adjustment of SME survey results SME survey data reported in the March 2012 NAB Quarterly SME Business Survey have been seasonally adjusted for the first time in the history of […]

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2012
US Economic Update: ‘sterilized’ QE

US Economic Update: ‘sterilized’ QE

28 March 2012

If the Fed undertakes another round of Quantitative Easing it may be ‘sterilized’. That is, the Fed would ensure there is no increase in bank reserves, either through using reverse repurchase agreements or auctioning term deposits to banks. Reverse repos or term deposits are a form of shortterm borrowing. Under unsterilized QE, the asset purchases […]

US Economic Update: ‘sterilized’ QE
State Economic Update – March 2012

State Economic Update – March 2012

21 March 2012

Australian economic commentary on a state by state basis. NSW Following a relatively sluggish year, the growth momentum in NSW appears to be lifting, with SFD increasing by 0.8 per cent in the December quarter. Importantly, NSW appears to have an investment driver with business investment lifting in the December quarter, buoyed by a solid […]

State Economic Update – March 2012
Monthly Business Survey – February 2012

Monthly Business Survey – February 2012

13 March 2012

Confidence retreats while conditions edge higher. Forward indicators remain weak. Retail, manufacturing and construction still struggling while services, transport and mining strong. Growth lowered locally.  Businesses appeared less confident about near-term activity in February than in January. While overall confidence remained positive, uncertainty emanating from the euro-zone and financial markets, the persistent strength in the […]

Monthly Business Survey – February 2012
Online Retail Sales Index – February 2012

Online Retail Sales Index – February 2012

26 February 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales strengthen in […]

Online Retail Sales Index – February 2012
India Economic Update – February 2012

India Economic Update – February 2012

16 February 2012

India accounts for around 5% of exports from Australia and 2% from New Zealand, mainly comprising a narrow range of commodities.  After growing strongly since 2000, shipment values from Australia fell in 2011.  India is one of the biggest Asian locations for Australian bank lending with around $US6½ Billion outstanding in the latter half of […]

India Economic Update – February 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012

15 February 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Agricultural commodity prices easing further on increased production, AUD impact on livestock markets Sluggish global consumption growth, increased competition from South America and South Africa impacting Australian wine exports Domestically, Australian wines under increasing pressure from rising import […]

Rural Commodities Wrap February 2012
Monthly Business Survey – January 2012

Monthly Business Survey – January 2012

14 February 2012

Confidence and conditions a touch better but economy still marking time. Sectors remain wide apart. Inflation weakening as retailers increase discounts and one more rate cut possible.  Overall business confidence was relatively firm in the month, with businesses seemingly still taking relief from the recent RBA rate cuts as well some abatement of concerns about […]

Monthly Business Survey – January 2012
Quarterly Business Survey – December quarter 2011

Quarterly Business Survey – December quarter 2011

9 February 2012

The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Despite better business conditions and improved confidence, survey still only suggestive of an economy growing at around trend. Forward indicators slightly better, implying a […]

Quarterly Business Survey – December quarter 2011
Monthly Business Survey – December 2011

Monthly Business Survey – December 2011

31 January 2012

Confidence up a touch in December, despite global economic worries. Conditions consistent with an economy going sideways – but multi- speed. GDP forecasts lowered & two rate cuts now expected in 2012.  Business confidence strengthened a little in December, although it remained below the series long-run average. Business sentiment over recent months has been seemingly […]

Monthly Business Survey – December 2011
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report January 2010 – January 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report January 2010 – January 2012

31 January 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. In a fast-changing environment, […]

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report January 2010 – January 2012
Difference over global outlook more apparent than real – January 2012

Difference over global outlook more apparent than real – January 2012

19 January 2012

New World Bank projections show 2012 global growth slowing to only 2½%, well below NAB’s 3¼% forecast. The difference is largely illusory and reflects how forecasts are compiled.  On a comparable basis NAB forecasts are slightly lower than the World Bank’s. For further analysis download the full report. Difference over global outlook more apparent than […]

Difference over global outlook more apparent than real – January 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012

Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012

15 January 2012

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month.  Agricultural commodities hit record levels in 2011, to ease in 2012 on massive production response. But considerable risk remains based on weather and Euro-zone debt crisis. Prices for agricultural commodities managed to pick up significantly in 2011, […]

Rural Commodities Wrap January 2012
Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011

30 December 2011

The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Strong rebound in business confidence for ASX300 firms – exceeding the broader economy; business conditions record […]

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011
Quarterly SME Survey – December 2011

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2011

30 December 2011

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence and conditions rebound but still below levels of their larger counterparts. Low tier (smallest) SMEs struggle. SME firms reported improved confidence in the December quarter – especially compared to […]

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011

15 December 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Agricultural commodities weakening on Euro sovereign debt crisis, rising production prospects Wool prices hit by weakening demand prospects, but still relatively high Australian wool production to rise 3.1 per cent in 2011-12 but exports to remain […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011
Monthly Business Survey – November 2011

Monthly Business Survey – November 2011

30 November 2011

Conditions improve slightly in November and are consistent with an economy growing around trend. Services sectors (ex. finance) and retail doing better. Confidence overall relatively stable – despite European concerns. GDP revised up on mining & consumer strength. Business conditions edged higher in November, after softening a little in the previous month, and are consistent […]

Monthly Business Survey – November 2011
Monthly Business Survey – October 2011

Monthly Business Survey – October 2011

8 November 2011

Conditions soften in October, suggesting growth in the economy is treading water. But, for the second month in a row, confidence has improved. Also tentative signs of Qld re-construction kicking in.  Business conditions softened in October, partly unwinding an improvement in conditions in the previous month, with trend conditions suggestive of an economy that is […]

Monthly Business Survey – October 2011
Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2011

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2011

20 October 2011

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey is the most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions slump and confidence falters mid-quarter, but monthly profile points to subsequent improving trend. Hours worked strengthens […]

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2011
NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011

30 September 2011

The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Business conditions for ASX300 declined further in Q3 – driven by manufacturing – narrowing the gap […]

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2011

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2011

30 September 2011

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Subdued SME conditions persist and confidence falls further. Business confidence of SMEs fell heavily in the September quarter, consolidating a sharp decline in the June quarter and consistent with the deterioration […]

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2011
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2011

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2011

30 September 2011

NAB’s Quarterly Agribusiness Survey covers economic and business conditions in Australia’s post farm gate agribusiness sector. Post farm gate conditions improve after plunging through 2011 Post farm gate business conditions improve but still remain weak High commodity prices and weak customer demand continue to squeeze post farm gate agribusiness sales margins Capacity utilisation collapses in […]

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2011
The Productivity Puzzle – September 2011

The Productivity Puzzle – September 2011

27 September 2011

Commentary on labour productivity growth. Labour productivity growth has slowed markedly in recent years, prompting calls for further economic reform. There is evidence that the mining and utilities industries may have been responsible for around half of this slowdown. This may reflect delays in high levels of new investment coming on stream and the strength […]

The Productivity Puzzle – September 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011

15 September 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month.  • Commodity prices weaken on risk-off attitude hitting global markets, but fundamentals still point to solid prices for agricultural commodities • Sugar prices set to weaken as solid crops in India, EU and Russia come online […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2011
Monthly Business Survey – August 2011

Monthly Business Survey – August 2011

13 September 2011

Global jitters jolt confidence. But could have been worse given global turmoil. Business conditions only a touch weaker – but with further restructuring evident in a widening of the multi-speed economy.  Business confidence dropped sharply in August, with heightened global uncertainty, large falls in equity markets and the fear of debt market contagion. Confidence deteriorated […]

Monthly Business Survey – August 2011
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011

15 August 2011

The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Australian wheat crop downgraded to 21.8 million on dryness in northern NSW, Queensland Beef prices to fall in near term on weakness in Japan, US and high AUD but recover in medium term on tight global […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2011
Monthly Business Survey – July 2011

Monthly Business Survey – July 2011

9 August 2011

Business conditions weaken showing an economy continuing to lose momentum and traveling below trend. Confidence remains subdued in the face of continuing uncertainty – but carbon didn’t appear to cause further retreat.  Growth in the domestic economy weakening in July, with business conditions now indicative of below-trend growth. This weakening trend was broad based – […]

Monthly Business Survey – July 2011