Global markets research to help your business make sense of credit, foreign exchange, interest rates and commodity markets.

CASE STUDIES and insights

Some mornings coming up with a title is a real struggle and then others like today you are spoil for choice. I have no idea if Donald Trump is a Beatles’ fan, but if he is ‘Don’t let me down’ would be one of those songs that he couldn’t get out of his head right now.

Have markets broken up with the Trump trade? Today will be a key test of this hypothesis with the US Congress voting today on a key healthcare reform bill which is seen as a crucial test of the relationship between the White House and Congress.

The AUD remains a tad under 0.77 this morning, in a session where there’s been some overall diminished appetite for the USD, with the Yen the strongest in the session, up 0.65% at 111.8, with gains also for the EUR, Sterling, and the Swiss Franc.

The market opened yesterday in the Asia session where it closed on Friday with the USD and Treasury yields in retreat.

From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).

US equities have reversed about half of yesterday’s post Fed rally, the USD is a little bit softer and UST yields are a little bit higher.

Global reflation continues, political risks to navigate

Janet and Co. has spoken and like the Commodores before them, re-affirmed that three is the magic number.

What was meant to be a quiet night ahead of key risk events (US FOMC and Dutch elections today) turned out to be rather more exciting.

What can the history of Australian monetary policy tell us about the current monetary policy debate?

It has been a quiet overnight session with markets essentially marking time ahead of key risk events tomorrow and later in the week.

As expected the ECB left its key interest rates and QE programme unchanged, but a more optimistic Draghi has helped the EUR performed and it has also pushed bond yields higher.

298,000 more of them were doing just that last month according to ADP.

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