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CASE STUDIES and insights

Getting toward the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and given the torpor of risk assets markets of late, the return of some buying could easily have occurred. And that could well be part of the explanation for overnight moves.

Australia’s population growth has strengthened to a 1.5% pace, equivalent to around 350k persons in the past year – almost equivalent to the population of Canberra being added to Australia each year (or a new Darwin and a new Hobart!).

The German economy is continuing to out-perform. The run of better than expected data continued, this time from the German Ifo Survey for March.

The USD (BBDX) was little changed on Friday while US equities and US Treasury yields ended the week a little bit lower reflecting a mild risk off tone.

Some mornings coming up with a title is a real struggle and then others like today you are spoil for choice. I have no idea if Donald Trump is a Beatles’ fan, but if he is ‘Don’t let me down’ would be one of those songs that he couldn’t get out of his head right now.

Have markets broken up with the Trump trade? Today will be a key test of this hypothesis with the US Congress voting today on a key healthcare reform bill which is seen as a crucial test of the relationship between the White House and Congress.

The AUD remains a tad under 0.77 this morning, in a session where there’s been some overall diminished appetite for the USD, with the Yen the strongest in the session, up 0.65% at 111.8, with gains also for the EUR, Sterling, and the Swiss Franc.

The market opened yesterday in the Asia session where it closed on Friday with the USD and Treasury yields in retreat.

From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).

US equities have reversed about half of yesterday’s post Fed rally, the USD is a little bit softer and UST yields are a little bit higher.

Global reflation continues, political risks to navigate

Janet and Co. has spoken and like the Commodores before them, re-affirmed that three is the magic number.

What was meant to be a quiet night ahead of key risk events (US FOMC and Dutch elections today) turned out to be rather more exciting.

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