NAB now expects an unchanged cash rate until late 2024
Insight
NAB now expects an unchanged cash rate until late 2024
Insight
The inflation figures surprised on the upside in October leading many pundits to believe there will be a rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day. At this webinar we will discuss the RBA decision on the first Tuesday in November and what this means for interest rates.
Webinar
NAB expects follow up hike in February 2024
Insight
The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.
Webinar
The latest major bank profit reporting/trading updates suggesting households so far by and large are managing the transition to higher interest rates.
Recent US CPI prints have shown good progress on disinflation. In this Weekly, we look at where those gains have occurred, and what to be careful of when drawing implications for Australia
We examine the aggregate and disaggregated measures of capacity utilisation in the NAB Business Surveys in greater detail in this week’s Australian Markets Weekly.
RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely
Insight
Calling a US recession has been a bit like “Waiting for Godot”, the title of the 1953 play by Samuel Beckett.
We expect Q2 CPI next Wednesday (26 July) to show little sequential progress reducing underlying inflation even as y/y rates move lower
This week we consider tomorrow’s RBA board meeting, but also US data releases that are likely to be more relevant for how the US economy and labour markets develop over the next 6-12 months.
This week we examine some possible budget assumptions for Australian growth, inflation, wages, interest rates and the $A for 2023-24 as well as the context, thinking behind and risks to the forecasts
In today’s Weekly, we delve into Australia’s productivity and labour cost data given the RBA’s recent focus on these metrics, and explain why timely signals on the inflation outlook may be better found elsewhere.
Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks
Insight
The RBA Board is ‘Finely Balanced’ at the moment and we consider future meetings ‘live’. What does the Interest Rates pathway in the back half of 2023 & how can NAB Markets support commercial borrowers in managing this risk?
Webinar
The RBA Board is ‘Finely Balanced’ at the moment and we consider future meetings ‘live’. What does the Interest Rates pathway in the back half of 2023 & how can NAB Markets support commercial borrowers in managing this risk?
Webinar
The Markets Economics team looks at the progress rebalancing supply and demand in Australia and find that Australia is likely to lag the progress being made in the US on rents, energy and wages/services.
In this Weekly, we delve into last week’s WPI data in more detail and discuss the risks to wages projections and the RBA's outlook
In this Weekly we explore two key US themes we are tracking closely for the trajectory of rates and inflation, in both Australia and the US
Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months
Insight
The Australian budget Tuesday night is likely to feature a small surplus for the current financial year...
We expect CPI on Wednesday to confirm that inflation is past its peak in Q1 but remains well above the RBA’s target. In this Weekly, we outline our detailed forecasts.
The RBA opted to pause rate increases last week, sooner and at a lower level than many of their central banking peers. In this Weekly, we look at the risks in their approach.
The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain
Insight
Late on Friday, the Treasurer formally received the independent review into the RBA, which has 51 recommendations.
Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak
Insight
This week, we update financial condition indices for Australia and the US and outline how central banks are likely to navigate financial stability and price stability priorities.
This week, we consider the likelihood of further tightening by the RBA and what impact - if any - the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank might have.
Is Australia different? We put the inflation and activity data in context and discuss why Australian rates might not need to go as high as elsewhere.
Overall clients on the Sunshine Coast and Noosa continue to report strong conditions and very tight labour markets. While only a microcosm, the themes from these clients are broadly reflective of what we are picking up in the NAB Business Survey, and it is clear the RBA is not yet in sufficiently restrictive territory to slow demand enough to be confident that inflation will return to the 2-3% target
Yesterday's Minutes make clear the RBA’s priority is inflation. While the Board is seeking to return inflation to target while keeping the economy on an ‘even keel’ it will do what is necessary to return inflation to target. The wages backdrop is a key risk.
Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%
Insight
With many competing influences in the global macro backdrop, in this Weekly we take a step back and outline a framework for how we are making sense of the world.
Inflation continues to dominate the markets narrative, what does the pathway for Interest Rates in 2023 hold & how can NAB Markets support commercial borrowers in managing this risk?
Webinar
Tapas Strickland, Head of Markets Economics NAB, James Sheehan, Head of Business Markets NSW/ACT, and Tracy Ferguson State Director Business Markets NSW discuss the February 2023 RBA meeting and outlook, inflation, the labour market, and potential risks ahead.
Webinar
We expect the forecasts to continue to draw a path to a soft landing, but the characterisation of the risks will be key to determine whether the RBA continues to be confident that it can return inflation to target without pushing rates deep into restrictive territory.
In today’s weekly, we suggest a framework for sifting through the various forces buffeting the 2023 outlook and pose five big questions that we think need to be answered to judge how the economy and central bank policy will evolve in 2023.
A key issue for markets is whether the US economy is headed for a recession in 2023, and when can we expect a meaningful moderation in inflation that would then enable the Fed to start to pivot
The RBA Review is underway and the three panel members recently publicly discussed their approach. In this Weekly we summarise these discussions and what changes the RBA panel is likely to recommend.
In this Weekly, we dive into last week’s Q3 WPI to explain why the RBA should be more nervous about their strategy and why a near-term pause is unlikely.
In this Weekly, we explore recent RBA communications and forecasts and what it means for the path forward. It is clear there is a very high bar to step back up to 50bp hikes.
With inflation continuing to dominate markets, what does this mean for the pathway for Interest Rates and how can commercial borrowers manage this risk? Watch this webinar tailored to Regional & Agri clients now.
Webinar
With inflation continuing to dominate markets, what does this mean for the pathway for Interest Rates and how can commercial borrowers manage this risk? Watch this webinar tailored to metro clients now.
Webinar
By downshifting the pace of hikes, central banks are acknowledging that decisions are becoming more finely balanced as they tread a fine line of returning inflation to target, while avoiding significantly overtightening policy and slowing the economy more than needed.
Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%
Insight
This week we provide a further update on supply chain disruptions and highlight a few areas where businesses might reasonably expect some lower prices from suppliers in coming months.
Australia’s second Budget for 2022-23 will be handed down next week (7.30pm on Tuesday 25th). Treasurer Chalmers has framed this Budget as one that will not add to inflation risks amid elevated cost-of living pressures and which occurs with a background of rising global recession risks.
Q3 CPI is on Wednesday 26 October and we forecast Headline of 1.3% q/q and 6.7% y/y.
In this weekly we give our initial thoughts on Q3 CPI following last week’s August monthly CPI indicator. We will provide a full preview early next week ahead of Q3 CPI on 26 October.
Markets will be looking for any clues from the RBA Board Minutes as to whether the RBA might step down from its 50bps rises back to 25bps.
50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22
Insight
This week we update our analysis of the inflation reads in the NAB Business Survey and what this may mean for CPI pressures in Australia, particularly in Q3.
Central Banks around the world continue to lift interest rates to combat 40-year high inflation numbers, although are there signs inflation is peaking? What does that mean for interest rates and what are the implications for commercial borrowers? Watch now.
Webinar
NAB expects the fourth successive 50bps interest rate increase to be announced on Tuesday as the RBA moves policy back to a more neutral level.
Central bank officials from around the world met at Jackson Hole last week. In this Weekly we highlight the key discussion points and what implications this may have.
In this weekly, we explain why other wage indicators are lifting more strongly, including from NAB’s own business survey.
In this Weekly we look at job ads in more detail to see what they may be portending for activity, and we also cross check the data with other information.
Our analysis in this weekly highlights that the RBA is indeed treading a fine line in trying to chart a credible path to at target inflation.
The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.6903, fell to its monthly low of 0.6682 on July 14 and made a high of 0.7032 on July 29 before closing the month at 0.6985.
The Terms of Reference for the RBA Review have been finalised, the three-member review panel appointed, and March 2023 set as a deadline for a final report containing recommendations to the Government. In this Weekly, we look at what to expect.
NAB now expects rates to reach 2.85% by year-end.
Insight
In this Weekly we shine a spotlight on the household sector and what trends are starting to show as households react to higher interest rates and above-target inflation.
In this Weekly we highlight some of the indicators that suggest a peak in global inflation is near
NAB now expects rates to reach 2.35% by year-end.
Insight
In this Weekly we explore how central banks may respond to rising recession risk and expand upon some of the leading indicators of recession
In this weekly, we look at some indicators that might reliably provide warning of some unwind or easing of the supply chain disruptions.
The RBA has upgraded its inflation forecasts, now seeing headline inflation at 7% by the end of 2022.
The key policy challenge will be to gradually return inflation to the 2%/2-3% target ranges sought in the US and Australia respectively, while avoiding taking interest rates too high producing a recession and a sustained rise in unemployment
RBA rushing to neutral, rates to reach 2.10% by year-end.
Insight
The RBA’s Board meets today and a further interest rate increase is unanimously expected by market economists with the size of the rate increase uncertain.
A review into the RBA is expected to occur “relatively soon” according to the newly elected Labor Government.
In this Weekly. we discuss how broader financial conditions, and not just the cash rate, are influencing the economic outlook.
It’s clear that with unemployment close to full employment levels and inflation way above target and forecast to rise higher, Australian interest rate settings should no longer be anywhere close to the emergency low settings implemented in the pandemic.
Strong CPI to bring forward first rate increase to May.
Insight
The RBA Board meets tomorrow in a meeting now widely expected to see the first increase in interest rates since November 2010.
In this Weekly we look at the potential impacts on theoretical borrowing capacity at different interest rates.
Wages likely to pick up despite NAIRU uncertainty. The RBA’s latest ‘best guess’ of the NAIRU is 4%.
Higher inflation is starting to impact buying conditions in the US. Will we see the same trend emerge in Australia?
RBA to hike rates in June, July, August and November, followed by a more gradual path through 2023 and 2024.
Insight
The RBA clearly signalled it is contemplating lifting rates over coming months, removing language about being “patient” and pivoting the RBA to once again being forward looking.
NAB now sees the first rate hike coming in August; Gradual normalisation to follow through in 2023 and 2024.
Insight
RBA to hike in November, QE to end in February as expected.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB brings forward rate rise timing to mid-2023; YCC to end in November given the RBA's lack of commitment; QE to end in February.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call and expects economic activity to rebound strongly as restrictions are eased.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
In this weekly we look at the recent reviews done at the Fed and the RBNZ to glean what a review into the RBA may recommend.
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
While Sydney and Melbourne remain a key risk to the outlook, NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Strong US Payrolls print, cementing expectations of a taper announcement at an upcoming FOMC meeting (September, November or December). As tapering becomes more certain, market focus will quickly change to the likely rate hike profile. Recent speeches by Fed Vice-Chair Clarida and Governor Brainard hint how this will evolve.
The Sydney lockdown is now in its fourth week with restrictions tightened further on the weekend. In this Weekly we update our estimates of the impact of these recent lockdowns.
Re-Affirming our rate view and an update on the outlook for QE.
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
YCC to end at Apr-24 and QE to be tapered to $75bn.
Insight
QE to continue, RBA to grapple with ending YCC.
Insight
RBA cuts rates to 0.1% and announces $100bn worth of QE.
Insight
The RBA continues to signal further monetary easing is likely.
Insight
RBA to soon undertake yield curve control, reinforcing fiscal stimulus.
RBA to cut in March and again in April.
RBA likely to stay on hold in February – with labour market conditions buying time. But cuts are still coming.
Little support from fiscal policy to see further cuts in February and June, with a move to QE in the second half of 2020 a real prospect.
Next RBA cut delayed to February 2020, with the risk of further cuts and QE by mid-2020 without fiscal stimulus.
RBA to cut in October and again in December, taking the cash rate to 0.5% by year's end.
Cash Rate to 0.5% by February; more stimulus by mid 2020 unless the Government steps in.
NAB fine-tunes timing of rate call: RBA to cut in July to 1%
RBA to cut to 0.75% in November.
RBA to cut in June with a risk it eventually cuts below 1%.
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