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FX Market Update – 25th October 2023

FX Market Update – 25th October 2023

25 October 2023

The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.

FX Market Update – 25th October 2023

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AMW – Making sense of the RBA’s productivity focus

AMW – Making sense of the RBA’s productivity focus

15 June 2023

In today’s Weekly, we delve into Australia’s productivity and labour cost data given the RBA’s recent focus on these metrics, and explain why timely signals on the inflation outlook may be better found elsewhere.

AMW – Making sense of the RBA’s productivity focus
AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong

AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong

28 February 2023

Overall clients on the Sunshine Coast and Noosa continue to report strong conditions and very tight labour markets. While only a microcosm, the themes from these clients are broadly reflective of what we are picking up in the NAB Business Survey, and it is clear the RBA is not yet in sufficiently restrictive territory to slow demand enough to be confident that inflation will return to the 2-3% target

AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong
AMW: Could higher wages push the RBA even further?

AMW: Could higher wages push the RBA even further?

22 February 2023

Yesterday's Minutes make clear the RBA’s priority is inflation. While the Board is seeking to return inflation to target while keeping the economy on an ‘even keel’ it will do what is necessary to return inflation to target. The wages backdrop is a key risk.

AMW: Could higher wages push the RBA even further?
NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

8 February 2023

Tapas Strickland, Head of Markets Economics NAB, James Sheehan, Head of Business Markets NSW/ACT, and Tracy Ferguson State Director Business Markets NSW discuss the February 2023 RBA meeting and outlook, inflation, the labour market, and potential risks ahead.    

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

Webinar

AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered

AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered

14 December 2022

In today’s weekly, we suggest a framework for sifting through the various forces buffeting the 2023 outlook and pose five big questions that we think need to be answered to judge how the economy and central bank policy will evolve in 2023.

AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered
AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?

AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?

16 November 2022

In this Weekly, we explore recent RBA communications and forecasts and what it means for the path forward. It is clear there is a very high bar to step back up to 50bp hikes.

AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?
AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting

AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting

9 November 2022

By downshifting the pace of hikes, central banks are acknowledging that decisions are becoming more finely balanced as they tread a fine line of returning inflation to target, while avoiding significantly overtightening policy and slowing the economy more than needed.

AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting
AMW: October’s Budget & Australia’s Fiscal Relativities

AMW: October’s Budget & Australia’s Fiscal Relativities

18 October 2022

Australia’s second Budget for 2022-23 will be handed down next week (7.30pm on Tuesday 25th). Treasurer Chalmers has framed this Budget as one that will not add to inflation risks amid elevated cost-of living pressures and which occurs with a background of rising global recession risks.

AMW: October’s Budget & Australia’s Fiscal Relativities
AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?

AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?

31 August 2022

Central bank officials from around the world met at Jackson Hole last week. In this Weekly we highlight the key discussion points and what implications this may have.

AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?
The AUD in July 2022

The AUD in July 2022

2 August 2022

The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.6903, fell to its monthly low of 0.6682 on July 14 and made a high of 0.7032 on July 29 before closing the month at 0.6985.

The AUD in July 2022
AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target

AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target

27 July 2022

The Terms of Reference for the RBA Review have been finalised, the three-member review panel appointed, and March 2023 set as a deadline for a final report containing recommendations to the Government. In this Weekly, we look at what to expect.

AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target
AMW: Delving deeper into the NAB Survey on costs & prices

AMW: Delving deeper into the NAB Survey on costs & prices

17 May 2022

It’s clear that with unemployment close to full employment levels and inflation way above target and forecast to rise higher, Australian interest rate settings should no longer be anywhere close to the emergency low settings implemented in the pandemic.

AMW: Delving deeper into the NAB Survey on costs & prices
AMW: RBA review?

AMW: RBA review?

21 September 2021

In this weekly we look at the recent reviews done at the Fed and the RBNZ to glean what a review into the RBA may recommend.

AMW: RBA review?
AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again

AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again

9 August 2021

Strong US Payrolls print, cementing expectations of a taper announcement at an upcoming FOMC meeting (September, November or December). As tapering becomes more certain, market focus will quickly change to the likely rate hike profile. Recent speeches by Fed Vice-Chair Clarida and Governor Brainard hint how this will evolve.

AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again