US Economic Update – August 2012

US GDP grew by only a modest 0.4% (or 1.5% annualized) in the June quarter, a slightly lower rate of […]

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  • US GDP grew by only a modest 0.4% (or 1.5% annualized) in the June quarter, a slightly lower rate of growth than in the previous quarter. The composition of GDP was not positive, with the inventory cycle likely to be a moderate headwind in the near term.
  • We expect growth to be similar in the current quarter before strengthening towards the end of the year and into 2013. We expect GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2012 and 2.6% in 2013 (both estimates unchanged).
  • Expectations remain high that the Fed will undertake some further stimulus measures. Extended forward guidance