US Economic Update – November 2012

The US economy is only growing at a modest rate. GDP grew by 0.5% qoq (or 2.0% annualized) in the September quarter, and we expect similar growth for the present quarter. Hurricane Sandy is a downside risk for December quarter growth; but upside risk for subsequent quarters.

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  • The US economy is only growing at a modest rate. GDP grew by 0.5% qoq (or 2.0% annualized) in the September quarter, and we expect similar growth for the present quarter.
  • Hurricane Sandy is a downside risk for December quarter growth; but upside risk for subsequent quarters.
  • We expect that the drawn-out recovery will continue. While the fiscal cliff may cause some turbulence, if it is scaled back (as expected), growth will likely strengthen in 2013. We expect GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2012 and 2.4% in 2013.
  • It is likely that the Fed will announce additional asset purchases to start following the completion of Operation Twist at the end of this year.

For further analysis download the full report.