US Economic Update – October 2014

Indicators point to above trend growth in the September quarter of just over 3% qoq. Jobs growth was strong in September and the unemployment rate fell below 6% for the first time in over six years. Inflationary pressures have eased in recent months.

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  • Indicators point to above trend growth in the September quarter of just over 3% qoq.
  • Jobs growth was strong in September and the unemployment rate fell below 6% for the first time in over six years.
  • Inflationary pressures have eased in recent months. However, we still expect a gradual acceleration in inflation over time.

Indicators for the U.S. economy suggest that it grew at an above trend rate in the September quarter; we are expecting growth of just over 3% qoq (annualised rate). The positive sentiment around the economy was only reinforced by the September employment report, which showed the unemployment rate falling below 6% for the first time in over six years.

In recent updates we have noted that the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing business surveys have indicated a strong degree of momentum exists in the economy. Both measures gave up some of their recent gains in September, but remained at still strong levels (consistent with around a 4% annualised GDP growth rate).

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