Group Economics overview of the budget

The significant budget announcements were in line with media reporting and prepositioning over recent days. The key headlines, in a budget sense, are the expectations for a small surplus ($4.2bn) this financial year, driven by strong employment and better than expected nominal wage growth, as well as very high commodity prices. The Government is claiming around 82% of cyclical benefits have been saved. Going forward, the surplus turns back to a deficit of $13.9bn in 2023/24 and around $35bn in the out years of the forward estimates as the impact of cyclical factors fade and a persistent – albeit improving – structural deficit continues. Nonetheless, the cumulative deficit over 5 years is now expected to be around $125bn lower. Gross debt is also expected to peak at a lower 36.6% of GDP in 2025/26.

Cost of living measures (totalling $14.6bn) take the focus on the expenditure side, including $3bn of energy bill relief, $3.5bn on Medicare bulk billing incentives, $4.9bn for an across-the-board Jobseeker increase and increasing rent assistance by 15%. Other areas of focus include Medicare, improving aged care services (including $11.3bn for a 15% award pay increase) and supporting the energy transition through incentives to small business for green investments and a $2bn Hydrogen HeadStart program to develop the industry.

Key revenue measures were as expected, with increased collections from the PRRT, tobacco excise and previously announced reductions in superannuation concessions. Elsewhere, Phase 3 Tax cuts stay – and will be needed if our forecasts are accurate, while the Low and Middle Income Tax Offset (LMITO) will end as expected.

Based on our early analysis of the budget, the impact on the economy is expected to be broadly neutral over coming years, notwithstanding a widening in the structural deficit in 2023/2024 before it levels off over the forward estimates. Further out the government projects a gradual tightening, with the structural deficit expected to narrow over the medium term. Consequently, we see little implication for monetary policy in the near term, with the RBA likely to continue to focus on the ongoing passthrough of rates and the pace of moderation in inflation.

The trajectory of the key economic forecasts matches our own outlook, albeit with a more optimistic outlook for growth in the near-term. For unemployment, wage growth and the CPI, the budget is only slightly more optimistic but sees a similarly shaped profile for each variable.

Economic Outlook

In terms of the economic outlook, the expected pattern of forecasts is broadly similar to ours, albeit slightly more optimistic, particularly on growth. GDP is expected to grow below trend over each of the next two years at 1.5% and 2.25%, (around 0.75ppt stronger than our outlook on the back of stronger consumption growth). Unemployment is expected to rise from current lows to 4.25% by 2023/24 and 4.5% by 2024/25. Our expectations for wage growth are broadly similar, with an acceleration to 4% in the near-term before easing further out, while the outlook for inflation is broadly similar.

Fiscal Outcome

A budget surplus of $4.2b is expected for 2022/23, a $41b improvement on the October 2022-23 Budget estimate. If realised, it would be the first surplus since 2007-08. However, the budget is expected to return to deficit in 2023-24 (and subsequent years). Similarly, reflecting the improvement in the budget position, the net debt profile has been lowered and net debt (as % of GDP) is expected to fall in 2022-23 before rising in subsequent years.

For further details, please see the 2023-24 Budget Economic Commentary