July 3, 2019

Australia Housing Market Update: July 2019

Lower mortgage rates and improved sentiment could already having a flow-on effect for housing market conditions.

CoreLogic’s housing market results present an early sign that lower mortgage rates and improved sentiment are already having a flow-on effect for housing market conditions. Last month, CoreLogic’s national housing market index moved closer to levelling out with values down 0.2% over the month, the smallest month-on-month decline in the national series since March 2018.

The subtle rate of decline was heavily influenced by trends across Sydney and Melbourne where the pace of falling home values has been consistently reducing over the year to May, before posting a subtle rise in June. Sydney values were 1 tenth of a percent higher and Melbourne values were 1 fifth of a percent higher. This was the first positive month-on-month movement in these cities since their respective market peaks in 2017. The only other regions to record a rise in housing values over the month were Hobart with an increase of 0.2%, as well as the regional areas of South Australia where values rose 0.1% and Northern Territory where values increased +0.2%.

Importantly, the improving conditions through to mid-May were largely ‘organic’, pre-dating the positive boost in sentiment following the federal election and interest rate cuts in June and July. No doubt the cut to interest rates, as well as the confidence boost following the federal election outcome are factors that have supported the improving trend.

On a quarterly basis, every capital city housing market has recorded a drop in value, highlighting the broad geographic scope of this housing market downturn. The largest falls over the past three months were recorded in Darwin (-3.6%) and Perth (-2.1%) where the weaker trend has persisted since mid-2014. Adelaide recorded the smallest decline amongst the capitals over the quarter, with values down 0.4%.

In another sign of stabilising conditions, settled sales activity appears to be finding a floor, albeit well below the decade average. Based on estimates of settled sales, the trend towards fewer sales is flattening, with settled sales activity over the June quarter roughly level with the trough recorded over the past two market corrections.

To find out more, read the July Housing Market Update Transcript or take a look at the national update or your capital city update by clicking on the relevant link below: