China’s statisticians could be underestimating the size of the economy

The accuracy of China’s economic data has often been called into question – with critics suggesting that the country’s growth rate is overstated (a view further fueled by a recent downward revision to 2014 growth). However less attention is paid to the country’s out-dated national accounting methodology – which may instead understate the overall scale of China’s economy. Moving to the international standard – already planned but delayed – could show that the transition in China’s economic growth model has progressed further than previously understood.

Updates to official data downgraded 2014 growth…. In early September, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released revised estimates for the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), which showed weaker than previously reported growth in 2014. In January, the NBS estimated China’s economic growth at 7.4% in 2014, however this was cut to 7.3% in the September revision – given RMB 32 billion was cut from the 2014 level.

For the full report, please see the attached document:

China Economic Update – October 2015 (PDF, 186KB)