Total spending went up 0.6% m/m. Overall, total consumer spending increased 1.9% in 3-month average terms and 6.5% over the past 12 months.
Report
December 9, 2015
India GDP & Monetary Policy
India’s economy accelerated in the September quarter 2015, with Real GDP growing by 7.4% yoy, up from 7% in the June quarter. NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.5% expansion in 2015, followed by 7.6% in 2016.
Summary & Overview
- India’s economy accelerated in the September quarter 2015, with Real GDP growing by 7.4% yoy, up from 7% in the June quarter.
- By expenditure, there was a clear improvement in investment spending. Manufacturing, finance and electricity were the standout industry sectors.
- India’s exports have declined through 2015; lower energy prices have contained the trade deficit.
- NAB Economics is forecasting a 7.5% expansion in2015, followed by 7.6% in 2016.
- Headline inflation accelerated to 5% in October,driven partly by rising costs of pulses.
- The RBI held the policy rate at 6.75% in its December meeting, with an accommodative stance.
- To facilitate quicker transmission, it is finalising the methodology to allow banks to price loans based on marginal funding costs.
- NAB Economics is forecasting a further 50bp reduction in the policy Repo rate during 2016 to6.25% by the end of 2016.
- The inflationary impact of the Pay Commission’s proposals and outlook for food and energy prices are factors that might influence this outcome.
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