Overview

• NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index looks set to fall in Q1 – down by around 2.5% qoq in US dollar terms. Key to this anticipated downturn is weaker forecast prices for thermal coal, while iron ore and metallurgical coal are also expected to soften. In contrast, prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gold strengthened.
• Our economic outlook is not generally a positive one for commodity prices – we see slowing global growth over 2025 and 2026 – to 3.1% and 3.0% respectively. However any forecast at this time has a higher degree of uncertainty at present – given the large policy shifts underway in the United States. China’s economy is expected to slow further – reflecting weakness in domestic demand and growing trade barriers.
• Having declined by around 10.1% in 2024 (in US dollar terms), our commodity price index is forecast to fall further – down by 10.5% in 2025 and 8.1% in 2026. Iron ore – Australia’s largest export – is the main contributor, along with weaker prices for thermal and metallurgical coal.

Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook (February 2025)