Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2019

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 3.1% qoq in Q1 2019.

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Overview

  • In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 3.1% qoq in Q1 2019. This increase reflects the impact of higher iron ore prices(due to Brazilian supply issues), with other trends mixed.
  • Our commodity price outlook is essentially unchanged–prices are expected to peak in Q1 and ease modestly going forward.
  • In annual average terms, the USD index is forecast to rise by 1.3% in 2019, before declining by 3.3% in 2020.Iron ore and metallurgical coal are the main drivers of this fall.
  • Reflecting NAB’s currency forecasts, the commodity price movements in AUD terms are larger – with the index increasing by 5.1% in 2019 before falling by around 10% in 2020.

Find out more in the NAB Minerals & Energy Outlook – March 2019