• Commodity prices generally fell in April – with particularly steep falls in oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) markets, along with declines in iron ore and coal.
• The global economic outlook has continued to deteriorate – with a wider range of economies impacted by countermeasures to control the spread of COVID-19. Although China has commenced its recovery phase, consumers remain cautious and industry has not reached its pre-virus level. A second-wave of infections that led to the lockdown of the city of Harbin highlight the risks around recovery.
• In annual average terms, US dollar denominated commodity prices are forecast to fall by 16.6% in 2020 – driven by LNG, iron ore and metallurgical coal. We expect prices to stabilise in 2021 at levels marginally higher than mid-2020, however this will result in no change in year average terms.

Find out more in NAB’s Minerals & Energy Outlook – May 2020