NAB Economics Data Insights 29 October 2020

Consumer spending fell for the first time in 6 weeks.

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Overview

Consumer spending fell for the first time in 6 weeks, with NAB data showing a -1.3% y/y fall in overall consumption spending over the week ending October 24. Excluding VIC lockdown areas, overall spending was basically flat (+0.1% from +8.3% last week). All states recorded slower growth this week. VIC was down -12.0%, with falls in both lockdown (-15.3%) and non-lockdown (-1.8%) areas. Retail spend continued growing, but at half the rate last week, with bigger falls also seen in Hospitality. Spending in most other sectors levelled off or slowed this week.

The softening in consumer spend data seems to have also translated to less payments inflows into NAB merchants. Overall, inflows slowed to 0.6% in 6-week rolling y/y terms against 1.5% last week. Removing JobKeeper, the growth rate was negative (-0.8%). By business size, inflows are still growing fastest for SMEs (but also the most heavily influenced by JobKeeper payments). Inflows into Corporates remain negative. By sector, inflows were strongest for Other Services, Education, Healthcare and Mining, and weakest (and negative) in Hospitality, Administration & Support Services and Wholesale Trade.

For further details please see NAB Data Insights 29 October 2020 Report

*During these extraordinary times we have taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play. NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.