Below trend growth to continue
Special survey on the second round impact of recent bushfires.
While bushfire impacts have been catastrophic for those directly involved we have used the Business Survey panel to try and judge the broader impact of the bushfires on the general economy. Although there’s no doubting the devastating impact upon local businesses in bushfire affected areas, key results suggest that the bushfires have not impacted significantly on the macroeconomy (and significantly less than the Qld floods impact). Indeed the answers imply a reduction from Q1 2020 GDP growth of around 0.15 percentage points from Bushfires vis-à-vis more than 1 percentage point from the Qld floods. The survey involves responses from 339 firms from our broader Business Survey panel and 279 firms from our SME panel. Broadly the results from both panels are similar.
Some of the key results are:
Finally while the indirect impact from the bushfires on the broader economy was surprisingly low (in our opinion) they are consistent with only small differences between the December and January Monthly Business survey results.
For more information, please see the NAB Monthly Business Survey Bushfires Special February 2020.
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