Commercial Broker

18 June 2026

NAB Economist Gareth Spence unpacks how brokers are well-positioned to support businesses seek guidance on funding, risk and growth decisions as they navigate economic uncertainty.

One month on from the Federal Budget, Australia’s economy is continuing to show some resilience in the face of ongoing uncertainties.

Set against a backdrop of economic challenges, including global conflicts, elevated inflation, and recent interest rate rises, this year’s Budget also introduced several significant tax changes.

NAB Head of Australian Economics Gareth Spence says overhauls to negative gearing and the capital gains tax policies will weigh on the housing sector in the near term, and see some spill overs to other activity but fundamentally demand for housing remains strong.

Slowing house price growth has made it more likely that the cash rate will be lowered this year, which would be positive for many businesses. NAB is now forecasting that the cash rate has peaked at 4.35% and the next move will be down, likely around mid-2027.

For businesses, key questions remain about how to manage operations in this uncertain environment, and many business customers are looking to brokers for guidance on what to do next.

Spence says brokers and businesses need to understand business cost structures and risks, to identify strategies to overcome the challenges. Brokers have an opportunity to provide guidance around timing, financing structures and risk management.

“Be deliberate, be planned out. The uncertainties there won't persist forever, but we're going to face into that for quite a while through this year as we see how what's happening in the Middle East and the budget continues to unfold,” he says.

2026’s strong start has offered protection

Australia’s economy started the year with positive momentum, and Spence says this has helped it withstand external shocks.

“Over 2025, we saw the consumer and household sectors pick up. Consumer spending growth was tracking around 2.5%, and we saw healthy business investment growth, and dwelling and construction investment growth.

“As we’ve come into 2026, the big question is how do some of the shocks play out? The Middle East conflict is ongoing. The oil price is around $100 a barrel. But the impact on activity and consumers hasn't been as large as we thought,” Spence says.

Cost pressures and inflation still in focus

NAB’s latest May Monthly Business Survey shows that while there has been some easing in cost growth, input costs and pressure on margins remain a key challenge across many sectors.

“We haven’t seen that pressure pass through to grocery prices as much as we had feared, so there is a mixed picture inflation, but inflation is still above target” Spence says.

Businesses are considering whether these costs can be passed on, and whether activity levels will continue to hold up. The outcomes will impact margins, cash flow and borrowing needs.

Brokers will continue to play a vital role in supporting businesses in making these decisions. NAB is forecasting inflation to remain above target until mid-2027.

Sector opportunities remain

Despite the challenges and still weak confidence, NAB’s Monthly Business Survey shows less of a deterioration in Business Conditions , and. services sectors such as finance, business and property services as well as health and education are continuing to show momentum.

The housing sector, while more cyclical, remains underpinned by strong long-term demand.

“Prices may fall in the near term, but that comes after a very long period of rising prices. And ultimately, the strength in demand for housing versus supply means that sector will see continued demand even if there are some wobbles in the near term,” Spence says.

Looking ahead, businesses will continue to look to commercial brokers for practical, long-term-focused advice. Brokers can support by helping businesses assess where pressure is building and how it affects their funding needs, and offering guidance on investment, hiring and expansion decisions that will position them for future growth.

Commercial Broker