Shifting balance of risks sees February 2025 firm for first rate cut – but easing still likely gradual.
Insight
March 16, 2015
US Economic Update – March 2015
Partial data have been soft recently, perhaps partly reflecting severe weather conditions. With December quarter 2014 GDP also revised down, we have lowered our forecast for 2015 GDP growth to a still solid 3.1% (was 3.3%). Unemployment continues to fall.
- Partial data have been soft recently, perhaps partly reflecting severe weather conditions.
- With December quarter 2014 GDP also revised down, we have lowered our forecast for 2015 GDP growth to a still solid 3.1% (was 3.3%).
- Unemployment continues to fall. As a result we still expect the Fed to begin rate hikes in June, although subdued inflation means there is a risk that this will be delayed to later in the year.
For further details please see the attached document.
