US Economic Update – January 2015
The US economy is currently enjoying a strong patch of growth. Small business confidence is at a recovery high, consumer confidence continues to increase, and household incomes – already benefiting from strong employment growth – are being further boosted by the fall in oil prices.
- The U.S economy is enjoying a strong patch of growth. Overall we have revised up our GDP growth forecasts and now expect 2.4% in 2014 (previously 2.3%) and 3.2% in 2015 (was 3.0%) although 2016 has been revised down from 2.8% to 2.7%.
- Inflation is falling reflecting the plunge in oil prices, as well as the appreciation of the US dollar.
- Monetary policy is likely to start tightening from mid-year. Low inflation (actual or expected) remains the main risk that may delay rate hikes.
For further details, please see the attached document:
About the Author
Tony joined NAB early in 2011 from the Victorian Treasury where he worked for 12 years on a range of issues, including state budget strategy and forecasting state taxation revenues.
Before this, Tony was in the Commonwealth Treasury for a decade, where he undertook work on macroeconomic forecasting, microeconomic reform and debt management.
Tony grew up in Canberra and graduated (with first class honours) from the Australian National University. He also holds a Masters degree in Applied Finance from Macquarie University.
