We forecast the global economy to grow by 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026 (previously 2¾% in both years).
Insight
June 8, 2012
US Economic Update – June 2012
The recent weakness in jobs growth continued into May. It is probably, in part, a correction to the surprisingly strong growth in early 2012. Indicators suggest that June quarter GDP growth will maintain the previous quarter’s modest pace. While we still expect GDP growth to strengthen in the second half of the year we have […]
- The recent weakness in jobs growth continued into May. It is probably, in part, a correction to the surprisingly strong growth in early 2012. Indicators suggest that June quarter GDP growth will maintain the previous quarter’s modest pace.
- While we still expect GDP growth to strengthen in the second half of the year we have trimmed our growth expectations for 2012 (from 2.3% to 2.2%) and 2013 (from 3.1% to 2.9%).
- Recent developments have raised the chance of further Fed action. If early action were taken the most likely form would be a change to the Fed’s forward guidance or an extension of Operation Twist. Further QE is still possible, particularly if labour indicators remain soft or the Euro-zone’s problems worsen.
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