18 September 2025
The Fed restarts the easing cycle
September 24, 2025
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 24 September 2025
The RBA to remain on hold for an extended period
Key points:
- We now see the RBA on hold at 3.6% until May (previously cuts in November and February).
- Today’s CPI data point to a 0.9%-1.0% qoq outcome for Q3 trimmed mean, which would be a 0.3ppt upside surprise to current RBA forecasts.
- The detail shows that market services inflation is significantly hotter than we expected.
- For the RBA, this means considerably less certainty that inflation has settled near 2.5% and highlights the likelihood that it will take a period of modestly restrictive policy for inflation to settle at 2.5%.
For further details please see the NAB Monetary Policy Update (24 September 2025) (PDF, 112KB)
