ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

Confidence eases but conditions and outlook remain strong.

Conditions rise further on Recreation & Personal Services recovery.

Omicron weighed on SME conditions and confidence in Q1.

Conditions surge higher as costs, prices hit records.

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

How will the US respond to China’s failure to meet its trade commitments?

National housing market sentiment fell sharply in Q2 as house prices weakened, but still positive supported by strong rents.

Our latest weekly consumer tracking data shows something of a mixed picture.

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen further gains in most agricultural commodity prices, tentative signs of a stabilisation in fertiliser prices, combined with a lower AUD and a weakening global growth outlook.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in May.

Consumer stress up again due to cost of living, but job pressures hit a 4-year low. Purchasing expectations fall sharply, particularly for travel.

Global inflation remains high and showing no signs of easing, placing pressure on household finances. For Australia, we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA.

Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 11 June shows ongoing signs of deterioration, albeit from elevated levels earlier this year.

Global growth prospects continue to weaken.

COVID-19 uncertainty continues to cloud China’s economic outlook.

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