A tariff reprieve, but a weaker starting point


Insight
Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.
A tariff reprieve, but a weaker starting point
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We forecast the global economy to grow by 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026 (previously 2¾% in both years).
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RBA cuts by 25bps and moves to more dovish stance
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Tariff pause gives China’s economy some breathing space, but longer-term uncertainty persists
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In a challenging year for many SMEs, cashflow and profitability have become more pressing concerns. But businesses are becoming increasingly resilient.
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US-China Tariff agreement – eases tariff growth headwind, delays Fed cuts
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Total spending rose 0.1% in April
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Capacity utilisation and capex decline
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Housing market sentiment rallied as national housing price growth accelerated in the March quarter.
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Growth slowing, but less abruptly than Q1 GDP suggests
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The NAB Commercial Property Index lifted to an 8-year high in the March quarter, continuing the run of improvements seen in recent quarters.
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We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to fall by 4.9% in Q2
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We hear from NAB’s new Chief Economist, as she unpacks the latest economic data with Deb Knight, Host of Money News – 2GB. Watch now.
Video
Economic and financial market update
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China’s manufacturers need stronger domestic demand as trade with US is curtailed
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