Economic commentary

October 28, 2025

 On a seasonally adjusted basis the NAB Online Retail Sales Index returned to growth in September

By NAB Group Economics

• The NAB Online Retail Sales Index returned to growth in September (0.5% mom), on a seasonally adjusted basis, with August revised slightly lower (-0.2%, was -0.1%).
• While growth in year-on-year terms continued to slow (12.5% yoy), it remains in double digits.
• Growth across different segments was mixed in the month, with department stores contracting again, albeit to a lesser extent than the month prior, while takeaway food rebounded strongly and games and toys and media accelerated. The large sales category, homewares and appliances, which retuned to growth in August, recorded a mild contraction in September. The department stores category, which had been leading in year-on-year terms, was pipped by games and toys this month.
• Results were also mixed by state, but a rebound in VIC, QLD, and TAS and rapid growth in WA was enough to offset another drop in ACT and NT, and smaller falls in NSW. WA recorded above index growth for all categories except department stores and media, where growth was more moderate.
• While metro areas still lead in year-on-year terms, growth rates have generally converged with regional areas in recent months. In September, metro areas led in all states except NSW in year-on-year terms.
• Growth returned to domestic retailers this month, particularly in takeaway food, and games and toys, although weakness persisted for department stores, joined this month by homewares and appliances.
• NAB estimates that in the 12 months to September, Australians spent $66.23 billion on online retail, a level that is around 14.9% of the total retail trade estimate from the ABS Monthly Household Spending indicator – Retail Trade estimate (July 2025, Series 5682, Australian Bureau of Statistics), with the 12-months-to growth (14.2%) now starting to plateau.

NAB Chief Economist, Sally Auld commented:

Dynamics in the NAB Online Retail Sales series for September revealed the strong growth in smaller spend share categories (takeaway food, media, games and toys), along with grocery and liquor. Growth in these categories in the month offset a fall in the large sales categories (department stores, homewares and appliances), along with fashion and personal and recreational goods. Indeed, in year-on-year growth terms, games and toys delivered faster growth than department stores this month. It is worth keeping in mind that, given the size of the department stores category and its continued year-on-year growth, its contribution to annual growth for the index remains in first place by some margin.  By state, the contribution to growth in the past twelve months has been generally aligned with each states share of spend. However, the three largest sales states (NSW, VIC, and QLD) have been slightly under their share of spend, while the contribution by WA has been over. 

For further details please see the NAB Online Retail Sales Index (September 2025) (PDF, 656KB)