Digital infrastructure powers US opportunities

Behind some global headlines of fragmentation and volatility, the prevailing view on the ground is strikingly consistent: the US remains a robust, resilient and dynamic economy ready for long-term capital deployment. Some of the most compelling opportunities are emerging at the intersection of future-facing, nation-critical digital infrastructure and power assets.

These are the findings from a series of major US conferences and from meetings with customers, industry leaders and policymakers, focused on the trends shaping infrastructure investment in the US today.

Artificial intelligence features prominently. It is seen as a catalyst for a new cycle of growth rather than simply acting as an immediate productivity and efficiency lever.

AI is pulling forward capital expenditure at unprecedented speed to fill accelerating demand for compute, power, data storage and other specialised infrastructure in what is expected to be a rapid and sector-spanning shift.

In the US alone, the data centre financing market is estimated to exceed US$100 billion[i] from the bank market, with NAB seeing continued expansion from all providers of capital across banks, institutional, debt capital markets and private equity and credit.

Financial sponsors are leaning in as the data centre opportunity solidifies as a high‑growth institutional asset class, underpinned by expectations that the sector will triple globally by 2034[ii].

Building AI factories

One compelling reframing emerging is the description of data centres as “AI-factories”:  assets which convert electricity into intelligence and revenue.

Given abundant global capital from institutional investors and strong demand - particularly from the hyperscalers – a key constraint is power availability. Location, energy mix and grid resilience are first-order strategic considerations as developers and investors seek to avoid infrastructure bottlenecks.

This message came through strongly at Metro Connect USA, widely regarded as the largest executive‑level digital infrastructure conference in the US. The NAB team was among a rapidly expanding cohort of delegates at the annual meeting, now in its 25^th year and representing more than 1200 firms across the operational, tech, construction and funding ecosystem.

A central takeaway was that access to power, rather than actual customer demand or capital, is now the gating factor for growth, site selection, and valuation. Project timelines are increasingly determined by grid interconnection certainty. Power risk is now a core underwriting and investment committee topic, not a technical footnote.

An emerging response is to “bring your own power” where developers are building co-located generation capacity with data centre projects to bypass grid constraints.

Variations of this approach have been flagged in proposed regulation in Australia, albeit through a social licence lens, as a means to ease pressures on household power and water costs.

In the US, similar issues are arising, with community expectations, water usage and energy intensity increasingly shaping approvals, timelines and cost of capital. Effective stakeholder engagement, closed‑loop cooling and energy‑efficient designs are key considersations for project viability.

Portfolio redesign

Larger, denser and capital-intensive AI-driven sites are also reshaping digital infrastructure portfolios.

There is a growing need for portfolio‑level capital planning, not just project‑by‑project financing, and for structuring longer‑dated, scalable capital solutions aligned with AI-deployment curves. Positioning assets as AI‑critical infrastructure is also unlocking access to deeper and more diverse capital pools.

In this market - where hyperscaler credit now sets the price of capital - tenancy quality increasingly outweighs sponsor pedigree or asset type. Hyperscaler‑backed projects are achieving tighter pricing and deeper liquidity, while others in the market may face higher costs of capital or migration to private credit. This concentration risk among a relatively small group of high quality hyperscalers is also a key consideration for capital providers.

The advantage lies with those who integrate their energy, digital infrastructure, and capital markets strategy early and use time to their advantage. Moving with speed and with the right partners with the right capabilities provides the best run at achieving structuring and execution excellence while navigating complex infrastructure risk.

The Projects & Money 2026 Conference reinforced the depth of sponsor activity across project finance - spanning renewables, battery storage, and digital infrastructure.

Rising power demand - driven largely by data centres but also reindustrialisation and economy-wide electrification - continues to support new investment. Long lead times for thermal generation are further reinforcing renewables as the fastest path to grid connection.

Battery storage is playing an increasingly prominent role, with ~58GWh capacity installed in 2025[iii]. Financing considerations are being driven by contractual arrangements (such as tolling versus merchant exposure), performance track records, and equipment procurement - particularly in light of “Foreign Entity of Concern” legislation designed to secure US supply chains by restricting tax credits subject to the provenance of inputs.

Superannuation opportunity

Against this backdrop, Australia’s $4.5 trillion[iv] superannuation system is well-positioned. As one of the world’s largest and fastest‑growing pools of patient capital, its scale necessitates a global investment outlook to deliver returns and diversification for members. The US remains central to long-duration portfolio construction as a scalable, investable and innovative market.

NAB was a major participant at the Australian Super Fund Summit held recently in the US, alongside fund leaders, senior US and Australian government officials, global financial institutions, technology leaders, investors and geopolitical experts.

Australian funds already invest more than $500 billion[v] across US infrastructure, private markets, real assets, technology and credit. Funds are building on-the-ground capability while forging partnerships with managers, corporates and governments, with a focus on assets aligned with long-term national and global priorities.

A defining theme in discussions with US administration officials was their execution‑oriented mindset to position at speed for a new era of technological and geopolitical competition. With an ongoing infrastructure funding gap - cited as being as much as US$3.7 trillion to 2033[vi] - across a range of vital sectors, private capital is expected to play a central role alongside government in delivery.

Officials emphasised that advances in AI and geopolitics are inseparable. Technology strategy and industrial policy are tightly coupled to national security and trusted supply chains, with allied ecosystem design becoming a deliberate policy objective.

Australia’s superannuation sector has a meaningful role to play, which can align strongly with member interests.

Global partners

Taken together, these insights reinforce a simple conclusion: in today’s world, trusted partnerships - between banks, investors, governments and communities - matter more than ever for long-term resilience.

At NAB Corporate and Institutional, we sit at the intersection of capital, policy and execution. Our dedicated sector teams and long-standing strategic presence in the US give us deep insight into the investment landscape and the relationships that matter.

We believe speed, simplicity and decisiveness are essential as AI and the geopolitical environment accelerate rapid change.

Alongside capital formation and recycling phases, we bring specialist expertise in managing and pricing complex infrastructure risk in this dynamic and emerging environment.

We look forward to supporting our customers further as they pursue these exciting US opportunities and help take our nations along the path to ongoing economic strength, security and prosperity.

 

NAB contributors to this report:

John Allan-Smith, Executive, North America

Brenton Gregg, Global Head of Data Centres and AI

Eli Davis, Head of Specialised Finance, North America

Mearl Cabral, Director, Sector Lead Superannuation

 

[i] NAB internal data

[ii] Five Trends That Will Define The Data Center Industry In 2025

[iii] U.S. Adds 58 GWh of New Energy Storage Capacity in 2025

[iv] APRA releases superannuation statistics for December 2025 | APRA

[v] Australia's superannuation giants have US infrastructure on the mind

[vi]American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure Full-Report-2025-Natl-IRC-WEB.pdf