Strong issuance volumes underpinned by extremely robust levels of investor liquidity and improved economic conditions.
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Industry and economic insights to help position our customers for the future
Featured stories
NAB FX innovation powers IFM Investors
A major global investment fund is using NAB’s financial innovation for derivative portfolios to help incentivise sustainability goals in a new deal for the Australian market.
Article
Looking to raise capital in 2024?
Discover how to take advantage of opportunities in the US Private Placement (USPP) market.
Video
Supporting the transition in 200 deals
NAB has marked a major climate milestone with the bank’s 200th renewable energy transaction as Australia looks to step up investment in the sector ahead of 2030 targets.
Article
Latest insights, trends and case studies
Comments from the desk of NAB’s Chief Economist – 20 June 2024
NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides his thoughts on the Australian and Global economy.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: June 2024
We have slightly revised our global economic outlook this month – with growth of 3.0% expected in 2024
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: June 2024
Subdued growth but signs consumers holding up
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – June 2024
How will China respond to the European tariffs on its electric vehicle exports?
Insight
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – May 2024
Our monthly transaction data suggest spending has been softer as the year progresses.
Insight
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2024
Business confidence down but costs, prices rise
Insight
Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2024
NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 12.3% in 2024 and a further 12.6% in 2025 – led by softer prices for bulk commodities (iron ore and coal).
Insight
Australian Economic Update: Q1 GDP 2024
Consumption up but growth still slow
Insight
Australian GDP Preview Q1 2024
Following a slow end to 2023, a slow start to 2024
Insight
Australian bonds record start to 2024
Strong issuance volumes underpinned by extremely robust levels of investor liquidity and improved economic conditions.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: April 2024
Online retail sales growth accelerated in April, after being close to flat in March.
Insight
Comments from the desk of NAB’s Chief Economist – 23 May 2024
NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides his thoughts on the Australian and Global economy.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: May 2024
Our global economic outlook is essentially unchanged – with slightly stronger conditions for both the Euro-zone and United Kingdom in 2024 offset by a weaker forecast for Japan.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: May 2024
Inflation still too high despite slow demand growth
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – May 2024
Trade tensions continue to mount, with critics claiming that China is exporting its industrial overcapacity
Insight
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – April 2024
Our monthly transaction data suggest spending ticked up in April after a stagnant performance last month
Insight
NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2024
Conditions, employment fall back to long-run average
Insight
Sustainable Finance newsletter: May 2024
Welcome to NAB’s newsletter on the Sustainable Finance market from an Australasian perspective.
Newsletter
Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2024
We see our NAB commodity index falling substantially in 2024, despite higher forecasts for base metals and gold.
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: March 2024
Online retail sales growth slowed to almost flat in March
Insight
NAB FX innovation powers IFM Investors
A major global investment fund is using NAB’s financial innovation for derivative portfolios to help incentivise sustainability goals in a new deal for the Australian market.
Article
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2024
Price growth edges lower despite reasonable economy
Insight
The Forward View – Global: April 2024
Our view for the global economy is unchanged – we expect global economic growth to slow to 2.9% in 2024
Insight
Countdown to climate risk reporting
Mandatory climate disclosures are on the way for thousands of businesses and organisations in Australia, with a start date as early as next year planned for the largest corporates. NAB unpacks what’s on the horizon.
Article
China’s Economy at a Glance – April 2024
China’s growth beat expectations in Q1, but big question marks around its sustainability
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: April 2024
Labour market strong, housing supply falling behind
Insight
Supporting the transition in 200 deals
NAB has marked a major climate milestone with the bank’s 200th renewable energy transaction as Australia looks to step up investment in the sector ahead of 2030 targets.
Article
Looking to raise capital in 2024?
Discover how to take advantage of opportunities in the US Private Placement (USPP) market.
Video
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – March 2024
Our monthly transaction data suggest spending was broadly steady in March
Insight
NAB Monthly Business Survey: March 2024
Improvement in supply-demand balance still gradual
Insight
Minerals & Energy Outlook: April 2024
Slower global economic growth in 2024 and 2025 set to constrain commodity demand
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: February 2024
Growth slowed but remained positive in February
Insight
Comments from the desk of NAB’s Chief Economist – 25 March 2024
NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides his thoughts on the Australian and Global economy.
Insight
‘Rock-star’ tipping point for finance pros
How the latest cloud-based technologies and artificial intelligence help treasury and finance professionals manage accounts and drive business strategy.
Article
The Forward View – Global: March 2024
Markets winding back rate cut expectations
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: March 2024
Growth subdued but will improve in late 2024
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – March 2024
China confirms an unchanged growth target for 2024 but headwinds will make it much harder to reach
Insight
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – February 2024
Our monthly transaction data suggest spending was more subdued in February
Insight
NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2024
Conditions rise but confidence, orders remain low
Insight
Australian Economic Update: Q4 GDP 2023
Growth slows in line with NAB’s forecast
Insight
Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2024
NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is expected to ease in Q1 2024
Insight
Australian GDP Preview Q4 2023
A slow end to 2023
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: January 2024
Growth rebounded in January from a significant drop in December
Insight
Comments from the desk of NAB’s Chief Economist – 22 February 2024
NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides his thoughts on the Australian and Global economy.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: February 2024
Rate cuts expected in 2024 but inflation path remains uncertain
Insight
Kiwi corporates seize A$ issuance opportunity
The breadth of interest from investors across the Asia Pacific region and ease of access is helping drive a strong pipeline in the Australian Medium-Term Note (AMTN) market as New Zealand borrowers head into 2024.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: February 2024
RBA on hold with inflation & labour market easing
Insight
NAB roundtable: ADI securitisation funding insights 2024
NAB brings together a group of treasurers from authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) to discuss recent developments and experiences in the securitisation market.
Article
NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2024
Conditions dip below average, price growth ticks up
Insight
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2024
Weaker global growth in 2024 to drive modest commodity demand
Insight
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – December 2023
Effects of monetary policy increasingly evident
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: December 2023
We observed a contraction in online sales growth in December, following strong October and November results.
Insight
Comments from the desk of NAB’s Chief Economist – 25 January 2024
This month NAB’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster provides his thoughts on the Australian and Global economy.
Insight
The Forward View – January 2024
Our Forward View this month covers both the Australian and Global economies.
Insight
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – December 2023
Our monthly transaction data showed a fall in spending in December.
Insight
NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2023
Business conditions cool as retail price growth slows
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – January 2024
China beat its modest growth target in 2023, but this will be harder to achieve in 2024
Insight
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 17 January 2024
NAB now expects an unchanged cash rate until late 2024
Insight
NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023
There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.
Insight
Payments efficiency drive on show at Sibos
Delivering low-cost, real-time international payments to match today’s customer experience in the domestic space was a key part of discussions for NAB executives reflecting on the marquee financial services conference.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: December 2023
Weaker inflation boosts rate cut hopes
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: December 2023
Slow growth to persist in Q4 and into 2024
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – December 2023
China likely to hit its growth target this year, but next year looks more challenging
Insight
Record year primes 2024 funding market
A rapid escalation in volumes and additional liquidity in the A$ financial institution (FI) bond market for 2023 have come at just the right time, creating opportunities for the funding task in 2024.
Article
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2023
Our monthly transaction data showed a pickup in spending in November, particularly in retail.
Insight
NAB Monthly Business Survey: November 2023
Confidence slides but conditions still above average
Insight
Australian Economic Update: Q3 GDP 2023
A further slowing in growth
Insight
Australian GDP Preview Q3 2023
Below trend growth to continue
Insight
The AUD in November 2023
The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.
Markets Today – The Cool Out
After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.
Markets Today – Sweet Spot
Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.
Markets Today – We Found Love
Fed's Waller inches open the US rate cut door
Podcast
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: October 2023
Online retail sales grew strongly in October, following on from a rebound in September.
Insight
Inflation impacts across infrastructure value chain
Industry participants are exploring a range of different approaches to support Australia’s infrastructure needs as the economy faces into a higher inflationary environment.
Article
Markets Today – Route Sixty Six
The Aussie dollar came within kissing distance of 66 US cents on Friday
NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023
Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.
Insight
Markets Today – Flatline
UK best Eurozone on the PMI front in Thanksgiving- thinned markets
Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Todays podcast US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]
The Forward View – Global: November 2023
Global growth resilient in Q3 but set to slow going into 2024
Insight
Markets Today – Proceed Carefully
The FOMC Minutes out 6am Sydney time didn’t do much to excite markets. The euro is a little weaker over the past 24 hours, while the equity market rally has lost some steam.
Tapping alternate debt markets to power Australia’s transition
Australia needs a vast amount of capital to build out the utility-scale wind and solar projects to power a net-zero future by 2050. NAB’s Executive, Specialised Finance, Andrew Smith and Executive, Capital Markets, Sarah Samson explore potential debt funding options in market.
Article
The Forward View – Australia: November 2023
Growth outlook upgraded but 4.6% rate peak ahead
Insight
Joining Ann Sherry’s ‘relentless dissatisfaction club’
The NAB board member and Queensland University of Technology chancellor reveals what drives her passion for social change and equity as special guest at the inaugural NAB Women in Funds and Infrastructure networking event.
Article
Markets Today – Feel Good Time
US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.
Markets Today – I get knocked down, but I get up again
Another choppy night on bond markets with 10yr yields on net little changed and the curve twist flattening slightly.
Markets Today – Sour Candy
A choppy session with softer-than expected second-tier US data seeing yields fall, while the USD gained smalls and commodity currencies underperformed
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
It was a busy 24 hours for data flow globally. Yields partially retraced yesterday’s post-CPI bond rally, while equities have held onto gains.
China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2023
Bond-fuelled lending to support near-term growth but challenges remain unaddressed
Insight
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2023
Our monthly transaction data showed a fall in spending in October across a number of categories including retail as well as a range of services sectors.
Insight
Digital claims deliver healthy transformation
NAB’s digital claims solution has enabled a system of fast, transparent payments for healthcare practitioners, government schemes and the communities they support.
Article
Markets Today – Slow
US CPI came in a tenth below consensus on both the headline and core rates, leaving yields sharply lower, the USD weaker, and equities higher.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2023
Confidence remains low despite healthy conditions
Markets Today – The Core
Subdued start to the week ahead of US CPI tonight
Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer
State Economic Update – Q3 2023
Growth holding up but subdued year ahead
Insight
Markets Today – Torn
Two events late in the session dominated price action. The first was a poorly received US 30yr Treasury auction. The second was not dovish comments by Powell who sounded still hawkish.
Sustainable Finance newsletter: November 2023
Welcome to NAB’s regular newsletter on the Sustainable Finance market from an Australasian perspective.
Newsletter
Markets Today – Doom and Gloom
Oil prices down again as demand pessimism deepens
NAB Markets – Interest Rate Update November 2023 Post RBA Decision
The inflation figures surprised on the upside in October leading many pundits to believe there will be a rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day. At this webinar we will discuss the RBA decision on the first Tuesday in November and what this means for interest rates.
Webinar
Markets Today – Just Give Me a Reason
Quiet data wise, but some notable moves in markets.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 7 November 2023
NAB expects follow up hike in February 2024
Insight
Markets Today – When the Night Falls Quiet
It was a quiet start to the week for news flow, which was mostly reflected in market movements, though yields are generally higher.
Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.
Markets Today – Crazy in love
Risk-on continues in the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as investors price the aggressive monetary hiking cycle as being closer to the end.
Markets Today – On Hold
The FOMC was on hold as expected. Yields are lower, though most of the moves came ahead of the Fed with soft US data.
The AUD in October 2023
Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.
Markets Today – Talk Talk
Japanese Yen slumps after only minor BoJ policy tweaks
Markets Today – Shake It Off (Taylor’s Version)
Risk sentiment started the week on firmer footing. Equities are higher, the US dollar is lower, and US yields were higher. Brent oil lost 3%, back below $88 a barrel.
Markets Today – Muddy Waters
European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: September 2023
There was a broad-based rebound in online retail sales in September
Insight
Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up
Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight with equities extending recent losses with disappointing earnings outlooks from major tech companies, despite mostly beating on current quarter earnings.
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.
FX Market Update – 25th October 2023
The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.
Webinar
Markets Today – European Disappointment
Weaker European PMIs, and potentially some unwind of yesterday’s move, have seen a stronger US dollar the main mover overnight, up 0.7% on the DXY.
Markets Today – Good Mood (in bonds at least)
A quiet night for data, but a big night for bonds.
Markets Today – Close but no Cigar
Close but no cigar – US 10 year bonds traded to as high as 4.99% on Friday
Markets Today – Carefully
Fed Chair Powell’s remarks have seen a choppy market response and a steeper curve, but against a backdrop of weak risk sentiment
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – September 2023
Labour costs rise as price inflation remains elevated
Insight
NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023
Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – October 2023
China’s third quarter growth beat expectations; 2023 forecast edges back above target
Insight
Markets Today – Wait and See
Higher US yields and 'risk-off' tone see AUD's hard-fought gains undone
The Forward View – Global: October 2023
Inflation yet to be defeated – policy rates could stay high for longer
Insight
Markets Today – Here I Go Again
Strong US retail sales sees yields rocket – 10yr yield +14bps to 4.84%
The Forward View – Australia: October 2023
Growth to remain subdued, but avoid a major downturn
Insight
Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful
Todays podcast Positive risk appetite to kick off the new week Equities higher, S&P500 +1.1% Yields higher, US 10yr +9bp to 4.70% Dollar loses 0.4% on the DXY with AUD an outperformer, +0.8% to 0.6344 Coming up: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, US Retail, CA CPI, UK Wages, FED & ECB speakers Events round-up NZ: Performance […]
Podcast
Markets Today – Curse Of The Curves
US CPI reverses much of the earlier week market moves
Markets Today – Be Alright
Global markets were relatively stable overnight ahead of tonight’s key risk event of US CPI.
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – September 2023
Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with growth in September following on from fairly strong nominal growth in prior months.
Insight
Markets Today – Hong Kong Garden
Lower US bond yields and softer US dollar lift AUD back above 0.64
NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2023
Cost pressures ease amid resilience in activity
Insight
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.
Markets Today – Work It
Stronger than expected payrolls data initially saw yields sharply higher, equities lower, and the USD stronger, though with the unemployment rate steady and earnings growth moderating, those moves were retraced.
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.
Markets Today – Breathe
The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause. Why? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are a number of factors, but it’s tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls that will really set the direction for early next week.
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.
The AUD in September 2023
The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.
Markets Today – Pour It Up
The sell-off in global bonds continued with fresh cycle highs being set for longer-term yields. The
Markets Today – Closing Time
Todays Podcast UK gilts lead global bond yields higher, Italy and France also up a lot, budget news hurts Treasuries recoil ~10bps from new (4.685%) high ahead of expected government shutdown tomorrow This plus reduced UAW pay demands, news of possible Xi-Biden meet, boosts US equity sentiment, AUD/USD recovers more than 1% of recent losses […]
Markets Today – Aint No Mountain High Enough
It’s the same story again today – equities hurting, the US dollar higher and bond yields reaching 16 hear highs. What’s changed today is a sharp rise in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s a great deal of nervousness that supplies in the US have been destocked too far, down to levels last seen in 2014
Markets Today – The Price You Pay
US equity and FX markets have for once pushed the bond market vigilantes out of the spotlight, albeit the weakness in stocks and strength in the USD doubtless owes something to the lagged impact of the earlier run up in Treasury yields to post 2007 highs
Markets Today – You Raise Me Up
The bond selloff continued overnight in what was a very quiet night for newsflow. The US 10yr hit a 16yr high of 4.55%, now 4.53%, and up some 11.2bps over the past 24 hours.
Markets Today – Go Your Own Way (the BoJ still is)
The path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting there will be more hike(s) to come.
The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023
Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.
Article
Markets Today – Rocket Man
The BoE is the latest to put rates on hold. But are they done? JBWere’s Sally Auld says its not safe to assume it’s over for any central bank.
The Forward View – Global: September 2023
Central banks may be at their peaks, but energy prices pose a risk to disinflation trend
Markets Today – One More Day
Bond markets are a little feisty ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a hold is still expected tomorrow but there are more signs that inflation isn’t beaten yet.
The Forward View – Australia: September 2023
Growth to remain subdued despite signs of resilience
Insight
Markets Today – Calm before the storm
US equities start the new week in a sedated manner while European counterparts record sharp declines. Front end yields have a led a bear flattening of the UST curve and the USD is a tad softer
Markets Today – Livin’ On a Prayer
The Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.
Taking the initiative with the transition
Transition targets underpinned by science-based standards are helping to drive opportunities for issuers and investors globally as sustainable finance markets continue to evolve.
Markets Today – As high as it gets?
Todays podcast ECB opts to hike, but taken as dovish with guidance read as a peak in rates Euro -0.8% and European yields are lower US Retail Sales data stronger in August, though offset by revisions AU Employment bounced in August Coming up: China Activity & MLF rate, NZ Manufacturing PMI, US UMich confidence […]
AMW – How weak is consumer spending?
This week we delve into the latest national accounts figures on consumer spending to try to assess just how weak consumer spending is.
Markets Today – Snooze
It was a subdued market reaction to the highly anticipated US CPI print.
Markets Today – I’ll Oil Wells Love You
Ahead of US CPI tonight, oil prices have ratcheted higher as OPEC+ cuts continue to bite
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2023
Employment index rises as resilience continues
Insight
Building culture and careers in property with Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
One of Australia’s most successful executives gives some inside tips at NAB’s Women in Property Finance industry networking event and reveals the biggest intellectual challenge of her post-Mirvac life.
Markets Today – Breathe
Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]
Markets Today – Nothing Gonna Break my Stride
US equities manage a marginal gain on Friday, but lower over the week and yields edge higher.
Markets Today – Slow Ride
Yields are generally lower globally after a boost to US 2-year yields from lower jobless claims proved short-lived while equities declined.
Building climate resilience with data insights
NAB is working with insurers to help build knowledge and resilience in the face of extreme weather events and volatility arising from climate change.
Markets Today – Top of the World
A rise in Services activity last month confirms the US economy still sits firmly on top of the world
AMW – Labour Markets – Progress on rebalancing labour markets in the US and Australia
In this Weekly, we take stock of progress rebalancing labour markets in the US and Australia, finding significant progress has been made on a range of indicators even without a sizeable lift in unemployment rates
Markets Today – Constant Repeat
A softer Caixin Services PMI soured the mood yesterday, with the USD broadly stronger and the AUD the worst G10 performer
Markets Today – Holiday
It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.
Markets Today – The Best
Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried
The AUD in August 2023
The AUD have an ‘average’ August in terms of its monthly hi-lo range, albeit it fell to a near 10-month beneath 64 cents
Markets Today – ‘Aint No Mountain High Enough (or is there?)
Overnight, the BoE’s Pill references ‘Matterhorn’ versus ‘Table Top Mountain’ approaches to monetary policy
Markets Today – Hot and Cold
US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.
Navigating net zero – business survey 2023
The new report asks 800-900 Australian corporates across the non-farm business sector (who may or may not be NAB customers) on their progress, plans and strategies to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers
Softer US consumer confidence and a JOLTs report suggesting ongoing rebalancing in the labour market saw the US dollar and US yields lower, while equities were higher.
AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole
Powell affirmed the Fed will ‘keep at it’ on inflation, but what else happened at Jackson Hole? In the weekly, we pull out some of the key insights, including on the outlook for government debt and the ‘friendshoring’ dynamic.
Markets Today – Waltzing Matilda(s)
Aussie retail sales were stronger than expected in July, but World Cup fever was a factor says NAB’s Ray Attrill
Markets Today – Play it Safe
Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.
Markets Today – Artificial Light
Caution prevails in front of Jackson Hole; stocks down, bond yields back up, AUD back lower
Markets Today – Falling
Yields were generally lower globally as PMI data came in softer than expectations, with deterioration most pronounced in German Services. The AUD was stronger, as were US equities, with tech leading once again ahead of much anticipated earnings from Nvidia.
AMW – Insights from bank profit reporting
The latest major bank profit reporting/trading updates suggesting households so far by and large are managing the transition to higher interest rates.
Markets Today – Marking Time
US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.
Markets Today – Back to the Grind
US yields resumed their grind higher to start the new week, though there was little news to speak of, while US equities where higher.
Markets Today – I Got You Babe
Yields lower on Friday, but still close to recent cycle highs
Markets Today – Doom Loop
It’s been onwards and upwards for global bond yields overnight, and AUD has spent time below 64 cents
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023
Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.
Insight
Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried
Todays podcast FOMC Minutes show concern about upside risks to inflation US yields higher led by 5bp rise in 10yr Equities were lower, S&P500 -0.8% with declines late in the session Asia equities weighed by China concerns AUD -0.5% against a broadly stronger dollar at 0.6421 Coming up: AU Employment, NZ PPI, JN Machinery Orders, […]
AMW – US Inflation – Encouraging, but don’t extrapolate blindly to Australia
Recent US CPI prints have shown good progress on disinflation. In this Weekly, we look at where those gains have occurred, and what to be careful of when drawing implications for Australia
The Forward View – Global: August 2023
Soft landing hopes rise but headwinds remain
Insight
Making climate goals a reality
Having credible, science-based transition plans will be crucial for organisations to help direct and unlock capital flows on the road to net zero.
Markets Today – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
A stark contrast Tuesday between strong US retail sales and very weak China data
China’s Economy at a Glance – August 2023
Soft start to Q3 signals a growing chance that China could miss its annual growth target
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: August 2023
Flat consumption in Q2 with one more rate rise left
Insight
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD
Markets Today – No Green Light
A higher-than-expected US PPI print contributed to higher yields, while equities ended the week on a muted note.
Markets Today – I Ain’t Worried
US Core CPI just 0.160% m/m and 3m annualised rate now 3.1%
Navigating carbon markets for net zero
Carbon markets have a role to play in the transition to a net zero economy, especially when seeking to meet and beat Australia’s interim targets this decade.
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – July 2023
Our monthly transaction data showed a surprisingly positive result for July, with spending still holding up.
Insight
Markets Today – Sour Candy
Risk appetite has been weighed over the past 24 hours by a trio of soft China data, a surprise ‘windfall’ tax on bank profits in Italy, and a downgrade of a number of small and mid-sized banks by Moody’s.
Monthly Business Survey: July 2023
Conditions still above average despite warning signs.
Insight
AMW – Some favourable signs for inflation in Australian capacity use figures but labour market still very tight
We examine the aggregate and disaggregated measures of capacity utilisation in the NAB Business Surveys in greater detail in this week’s Australian Markets Weekly.
Markets Today – Holiday
Northern hemisphere summer holidays and a lack of data has seen markets treading water ahead of US CPI figures on Thursday.
Markets Today – Soft Parade
Bond sell-off reverses on softer US payrolls
Markets Today – Schadenfreude
BoE lifts Bank Rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, to limited market reaction. US payrolls tonight
Markets Today – Higher Ground
Yields rise, US 10yr hits 4.12% before easing back to 4.08%, highest since Nov 2022
State Economic Overview June 2023
Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24
Insight
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 2 August 2023
RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely
Insight
Markets Today – Pump It
The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.
The AUD in July 2023
US, China and local inflation news drove much of the AUD volatility in July
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
Markets were generally quiet to start to week ahead of key risk events later in the week (BoE Thursday, US ISM Services Thursday, US Payrolls Friday).
Markets Today – Big in Japan (or perhaps not)
Friday’s BoJ announcements made a bigger initial impression on global bond markets than FX
Taking the next natural steps in the transition
Organisations can build on today’s climate transition work to better identify the risks and opportunities nature-based assets provide as new reporting standards come into play.
Markets Today – Better than you
Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: June 2023
NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in June.
Insight
AMW – US recession probabilities have fallen recently
Calling a US recession has been a bit like “Waiting for Godot”, the title of the 1953 play by Samuel Beckett.
Markets Today – The Last Time (or not)
The US FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 5.25-5.50% as universally expected.
Markets Today – Devil Inside
AUD approaches 0.68, buoyed by China stimulus news and RMB gains
Climate action 1, 2, 3!
Igneo Infrastructure Partners strategy to achieve net zero by 2050
Critical minerals to play a key role in clean energy supply
We're optimistic about playing a key funding role in future projects.
Credible ESG data and disclosures critical for transition
Credible data and climate-related financial disclosure will play a critical role in transitioning the nation to net zero.
EnergyAustralia’s Mark Collette on solving the energy trilemma
Rebuilding an industry with multiple moving parts.
AGL CEO Damien Nicks on a new era of renewable power
On Torrens Island near Adelaide, the nation’s biggest decarbonisation project is gathering momentum.
Beyond five-star ratings
The road to decarbonising Commercial Real Estate.
Markets Today – Shivers
Weak European PMIs have seen yields fall, though moves in US Treasuries retraced latter in the day.
The need for speed: Redman’s transmission transformation
Transgrid Chief Executive, Brett Redman, accepts there is no alternative but to press harder on the transition accelerator.
Markets Today – The Waiting
US equities closed the week little changed with the S&P 500 in consolidation mode ahead of a new week that includes the FOMC meeting and a busy earnings calendar. UST were little changed and the USD continued its recovery.
Markets Today – Workin’ For A Livin’
US yields higher with Jobless Claims lower than expected
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023
Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.
Insight
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – June 2023
Supply issues easing but labour still hard to find
Insight
Markets Today – Good thing
Another bond rally, this time in the UK with inflation coming in softer than expected.
The Forward View – Global: July 2023
China’s weak Q2 growth presages weaker global growth
Insight
Markets Today – You’re the Voice
Central bankers globally seem to have switched to a more measured tone recently. Overnight tapas
The Forward View – Australia: July 2023
A slow second half, but persistent inflation
Insight
Markets Today – Slow and low
Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.
China’s Economy at a Glance – July 2023
China’s recovery lost momentum in Q2 and the outlook for the second half remains cloudy
Insight
Markets Today – Getting better
A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.
Markets Today – Cold day in the sun
After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.
China Economic Update – July 2023
Any significant change to global supply chains will take time
Insight
Markets Today – Paradise
Yields tumbled and risk assets soared as US CPI came in much softer than expected
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – June 2023
Our monthly transaction data showed a broadly flat result for June, with a lift in hospitality spending but a fall in retail.
Insight
AMW – Q2 CPI Preview – Slow progress in Q2 inflation
We expect Q2 CPI next Wednesday (26 July) to show little sequential progress reducing underlying inflation even as y/y rates move lower
Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2023
Conditions still above average despite warning signs
Insight
Markets Today – Maybe Next Time
The RBA met yesterday and held rates steady. Other than that, it was a very quiet 24 hours characterised by thin trading alongside the US 4 July holiday.
Markets Today – Should I Stay or Should I Go
A quiet night overnight given shortened pre-holiday trade in the US ahead of Independence Day today.
AMW – July RBA Board decision again likely to be a very close call
This week we consider tomorrow’s RBA board meeting, but also US data releases that are likely to be more relevant for how the US economy and labour markets develop over the next 6-12 months.
The AUD in June 2023
The AUD/USD price action in June was a story of two halves. Soft US data and a cash rate hike by the RBA helped propel the currency to an intra-month high of 69c, but then concerns over China’s growth outlook and better than expected US data releases weighed in the second half of the month.
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.
Markets Today – I Knew You Were Trouble
Fed, ECB, BoE heads reiterate hawkish views; BoJ reiterates dovish stance
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: May 2023
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew rapidly this month, following on from very subdued growth over the past two months.
Insight
Digital infrastructure sales unlock hidden value
A series of NAB-led deals involving major telcos and private capital from infrastructure investors points the way to effectively monetising undervalued assets for growth.
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Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.
AMW – What assumptions to use for my 2023-24 budget?
This week we examine some possible budget assumptions for Australian growth, inflation, wages, interest rates and the $A for 2023-24 as well as the context, thinking behind and risks to the forecasts
Markets Today – Against the Grain
Quiet start to week with no market fall-out from weekend Russia news. Weaker Yuan a focus.
Markets Today – PMI Slowdown
PMIs on Friday showed Eurozone output growth close to stalling, seeing Europe lead yields lower and the euro fall.
Markets Today – Fifty Fifty
The BoE surprises market with 50bps, Norges Bank less so with its 50bps. SNB opts for a ‘hawkish' 25bps
NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023
After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.
Insight
Markets Today – No relief
Powell added little new information in House testimony, but the US dollar was weaker and equities were lower. UK CPI data surprised higher ahead of the BoE later today
The Forward View – Global: June 2023
Global growth set to slow as monetary policy bites
Insight
AMW – Population surges – don’t extrapolate too far
Australia’s population growth has surged over the past year. The surprise has been how quickly it has rebounded after borders were re-opened from November 2021.
Markets Today – Weather With You
Soft risk sentiment overall last night which was mostly China driven.
The Forward View – Australia: June 2023
4.6% rate peak as recessionary forces gather
Insight
Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.
Markets Today – King of the World
AUD ends a big if short local week at the top of the G10 currency pile, AUD/USD +2% w/w
US Economic Update – 16 June 2023
Fed pauses in June, but another hike is likely
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – June 2023
Weakness in domestic demand led to underperformance in May
Insight
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.
ASFA supports our 11th Super FX hedging survey
Jamie Bonic, Head of FX Investor Sales APAC, and Ray Attrill, Head of FX Research, joined ASFA to discuss the launch of NAB’s Super FX hedging survey.
AMW – Making sense of the RBA’s productivity focus
In today’s Weekly, we delve into Australia’s productivity and labour cost data given the RBA’s recent focus on these metrics, and explain why timely signals on the inflation outlook may be better found elsewhere.
Markets Today – Two of a Kind
Fed pauses as expected but ‘dot plot’ adds two, not one, more rate rises to 2023
China Economic Update – June 2023
Is China finding new markets for its exports?
Insight
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – May 2023
Our monthly transaction data showed a small rise in spending in May (in seasonally adjusted terms), driven by discretionary spending.
Insight
Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?
US CPI was in line with expectations, adding to confidence the FOMC will skip at tomorrow’s meeting even as yields pushed higher. Strong UK labour market saw UK yields surge.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 13 June 2023
Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks
Insight
Monthly Business Survey: May 2023
Worrying signs of a slowing in activity
Insight
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.
Markets Today – When Bad Does Good
Jump in US jobless claims supports lowers US yields and US$; S&P500 back in bull market
NAB Markets (Regional & Agribusiness) – Post June 2023 RBA Cash Rate Target Announcement
The RBA Board is ‘Finely Balanced’ at the moment and we consider future meetings ‘live’. What does the Interest Rates pathway in the back half of 2023 & how can NAB Markets support commercial borrowers in managing this risk?
Webinar
Markets Today – My [Hikes] Will Go On
The BoC shocked markets overnight, hiking by 25bps to 4.75%.
Australian Economic Update: Q1 GDP 2023
A soft start to 2023
Insight
Levelling up corporate treasury in real time
The growing wave of digital transformation in finance is helping solve today’s key corporate treasury challenges by leveraging the latest developments in data analytics, artificial intelligence and machine learning
AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop
In our latest Weekly, Taylor Nugent explores the impact of pandemic swings in population and housing demand to explain the current acute rental market tightness and rapidly increasing rents, as well as when these pressure may ease
Markets Today – Consequences
It has been a quiet 24 hours in markets with generally small market movements, while the Australian dollar held onto its gains following yesterday RBA rate hike, 0.8% higher against the US dollar.
Markets Today – Rebel Without a Pause?
Markets go into today’s RBA decision ascribing a roughly 65% chance to a pause
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.
Australian GDP Preview: Q1 2023
A slow start for growth in 2023
Insight
Markets Today – Mr Brightside
A positive night for risk sentiment with equities up (S&P500 +1.0%; Eurostoxx50 +0.9%), USD down (DXY -0.7%), and yields lower (US 10yr -3.8bps to 3.60% and 2yr -6.4bps to 4.34%).
The AUD in May 2023
The AUD fell below 65 cents in May, in doing so re-establishing a more ‘normal’ monthly trading range after two months of highly compressed volatility.
Markets Today – Pause for Thought
The AUD had fallen to a new post November 2022 following more disappointing China data
US Economic Update – 31 May 2023
Activity – and inflation – resilience continues
Insight
NAB Superannuation FX hedging survey set for launch
NAB presents detailed insights into superannuation investment behaviours and trends in our comprehensive survey of Australian Superannuation Funds undertaken every two years and opening again for 2023.
AMW – Deep Dive – Examining progress rebalancing demand and supply in Australia
The Markets Economics team looks at the progress rebalancing supply and demand in Australia and find that Australia is likely to lag the progress being made in the US on rents, energy and wages/services.
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.
Markets Today – Holiday
Public Holidays in the US, UK and Germany made for a very quiet night as far as market moves are concerned.
Markets Today – Now That I Found You
US equities were higher on Friday as hopes grew of a debt ceiling deal, ahead of news on the weekend that an agreement in principle had indeed been found. US data was strong and Fed tightening expectations firmed.
Markets Today – Diamond in the rough
The US dollar extended its positive streak and yields globally were higher despite mixed economic data as AI-related tech saw US equites higher
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: April 2023
NAB Online Retail Sales Index was flat in month-on-month in April, after a mild contraction in March.
Insight
Markets Today – The Price You Pay
Still no sign of breakthrough on US debt ceiling talks, souring risk sentiment.
Markets Today – Tug of War
The absence of a debt ceiling deal weighs on risk sentiment even as Biden calls talks ‘productive,’ while global PMIs reaffirm the stark divergence between services and goods.
AMW – Room for optimism, but wages may not be as benign as they seem
In this Weekly, we delve into last week’s WPI data in more detail and discuss the risks to wages projections and the RBA's outlook
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
A quiet start to the week with little in the way of significant market moves.
China Economic Update – May 2023
Reports of a property rebound appear premature
Insight
AMW – Credit conditions & inflation, Fed and RBA implications
In this Weekly we explore two key US themes we are tracking closely for the trajectory of rates and inflation, in both Australia and the US
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.
Markets Today – High Hopes
Hopes for a deal on the debt ceiling improved.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023
Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.
Insight
Markets Today – Ac-cent-tchu-ate the Positive
Positive soundbites from Biden and McCarthy give hope a debt deal can be reached.
The Forward View – Global: May 2023
Global growth set to slow from robust Q1 results
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – May 2023
Base effects inflate growth in April; still waiting on demand to recover
Insight
Markets Today – Far Away
A flurry of global economic data but relatively modest market movements.
The Forward View – Australia: May 2023
Rates to pass 4% with economy to slow in response
Insight
Markets Today – Waiting on the World to Change
A quiet start to the week with little in the way of new news or top-tier data.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 15 May 2023
Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months
Insight
Markets Today – Comeback Kid
Markets were spoked on Friday by an unexpected rise in US consumer inafltion expectations
Markets Today – Tough Medicine
The Bank of England raised rates by 25bp as expected, while softer data out of China and the US weighed on risk sentiment
Markets Today – Moderation
Markets are showing relief that the key US CPI release overnight was not higher than expected
Markets Today – Tread water
Markets are treading water as we await the outcome from the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and the US CPI data release tonight. US and EU equities have ended the day lower while core yields have edged a little bit higher. Fiscal updates revealed contrasting AU and NZ fortunes while cautiousness in the air has favoured the USD.
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – April 2023
Our monthly transaction data showed another small fall in spending in April (in seasonally adjusted terms), largely driven by discretionary services categories.
Insight
AMW – How sticky will Australian inflation be?
The Australian budget Tuesday night is likely to feature a small surplus for the current financial year...
Markets Today – No imminent crunch
US and EU equities have closed with modest gains while core yields extended Friday’s rise. The Fed Senior Loan Officer revealed a modest deterioration in lending standards alongside a drop in demand for loans, so no evidence of an imminent credit crunch. The USD is little changed with NZD leading a modest outperformance by pro-growth currencies.
Monthly Business Survey: April 2023
Conditions slowly normalising but still high for now.
Insight
Markets Today – Waiting for Godot
Payrolls more than solid enough, challenging views of imminent rate cuts
Markets Today – Dead Man’s Curve
Latest US yield curve movements are giving an even stronger signal of imminent US recession
Markets Today – Could this be enough?
US yields were lower and the dollar stronger with the FOMC increasing rates by 25bp as expected and dropping the expectation for further hikes.
Taking construction to the next level
Kapitol Group shows how a culture of innovation and the right banking partnership has helped build a small construction start-up into a significant industry corporate in just five years.
Markets Today – Dance Monkey
Big moves in markets overnight as US regional bank worries reignited, signs of catering in European loan demand, and a sharp fall in US job openings.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: March 2023
NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth contracted in March, following the strong February result.
Insight
US Economic Update – May 2023
Q1 GDP slowdown driven by inventories
Insight
Markets Today – Resolution
US yields are higher and the dollar stronger with little fallout from the failure of First Republic, being acquired by JP Morgan in an FDIC-supported deal.
The AUD in April 2023
After reducing to just a 2.2 cents range in March, April’s AUD/USD range was little different – 2.3 cents
Markets Today – A lot to digest
The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.
Sustainable Finance Newsletter: April 2023
A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Markets Today – Where’s North from Here?
Softer US growth but stubbornly sticky prices has seen US yields higher, while US equities recorded their biggest gain since January.
Markets Today – No Help Coming
The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.
Markets Today – First (Republic) Time
Us equities haven fallen sharply, bond yields are lower and AUD/USD is back near 0.66, ahead of CPI this morning.
Markets Today – Titanium
A quiet end to a choppy week, with some intra-day volatility following stronger than expected PMIs.
Markets Today – The Reason
Weaker second-tier US data has helped push global yields lower, while disappointing earnings by Tesla (-9.7%) and talk of margin compression dragged down equities.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2023
Constraints still tight but prices past their peak
Insight
NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023
We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.
Insight
AMW – Q1 CPI Preview – Past the peak, but still too high
We expect CPI on Wednesday to confirm that inflation is past its peak in Q1 but remains well above the RBA’s target. In this Weekly, we outline our detailed forecasts.
Markets Today – Shake it up
The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations
Australia’s payments future and what it means for business
Payments are at the heart of every business and with today’s rapid technological changes there are even more exciting opportunities to leverage in the space.
Article
The Forward View – Global: April
Bounce in global growth in Q1 won’t last
Insight
Markets Today – Some like it hot
A quiet overnight session despite the plethora of earnings reports.
China’s Economy at a Glance – April 2023
Services sector supports growth rebound in Q1, as base effects boost consumption
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: April 2023
Economy to slow despite jobs, population surge
Insight
Markets Today – Empire State of Mind
The uplift in US bond yields continued overnight, supporting the US dollar but not hurting equities
Markets Today – Is it really so bad?
Stronger than expected US data pushed US yields higher and supported a broadly stronger US dollar on Friday.
Markets Today – Love Is In The Air
Todays podcast Soft US PPI helps drive a risk-on rally Adds to views the US Fed is almost done USD falls, and AUD and NZD outperform Yields mixed, equities up ahead of earnings Coming up: US Retail Sales, US Bank Earnings “Love is in the air, everywhere I look around; Love is in the air, […]
Markets Today – Good, but good enough?
US treasuries retraced most of their post-CPI rally overnight with core CPI coming in as expected.
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – March 2023
Our monthly transaction data suggests spending turned a corner in March with total spending declining, after holding up through more than a year of high inflation and rising interest rates.
Insight
Markets Today – Waiting for you
It was a quiet session overnight ahead of key risk events later in the week (US CPI is on Wednesday and bank earnings are on Friday, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan).
AMW – The RBA Pauses Early – what are the risks?
The RBA opted to pause rate increases last week, sooner and at a lower level than many of their central banking peers. In this Weekly, we look at the risks in their approach.
Monthly Business Survey: March 2023
Conditions hold up, price pressures ease
Insight
Markets Today – False Claims
There were no major surprises in Friday’s US NFP report, unlike the prior days weekly jobless claims data.
China Economic Update – April 2023
Tentative recovery: Chinese outbound tourism continues to face constraints
Insight
Markets Today – Could this be the slowing we’ve been waiting for?
Softer US data saw recession concerns to the fore, with yields lower over the day but some safe-haven dynamics supporting the USD.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 5 April 2023
The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain
Insight
AMW – An update on the RBA review
Late on Friday, the Treasurer formally received the independent review into the RBA, which has 51 recommendations.
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.
State Economic Overview March 2023
Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms
Insight
Markets Today – Stick or Twist
Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today
Global trends to watch for the Australian university sector
The strong return of international students is helping to bolster a sector undergoing post-pandemic changes amid challenging economic conditions.
Constructing a net zero investment strategy
A NAB panel explores the practical implications involved for superannuation funds in their net zero investment ambitions.
Report
The AUD in March 2023
Following two months of well above-average ranges, the AUD/USD range reduced to just 2.2 cents in March, though the currency did hit a 4-month low of 0.6565.
Markets Today – Love so soft
A softer than expected US Core PCE Deflator (0.3% m/m vs. 0.4% expected) helped push yields lower on Friday (US 10yr -8.1bps to 3.47%).
Markets Today – What’s old is new again
It’s a third successive day of relative calm across markets, though an upside surprise to German CPI has seen European yields push higher.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 30 March 2023
Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak
Insight
Markets Today – It’s All Good
The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: February 2023
NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth accelerated in February, after returning to growth in January.
Insight
Markets Today – Relative Calm
There has been little top-level news flow over the past 24 hours, which has seen markets relatively calm by the standards of recent weeks.
Markets Today – Everything’s Gonna be Alright
Bond yields are sharply higher overnight, improved sentiment towards the banking sector one key driver
Markets Today – Night of hunters
Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.
Markets Today – Janet
After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2023
Our global forecasts are little changed this month. Also, our outlook for the Australian economy is broadly unchanged.
Insight
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
The FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%, continued QT, and kept the existing dot plot which pencils in one further hike to 5.00-5.25%. Market reaction was dovish, but was not risk on.
The Forward View – Global: March 2023
Bounce in Q1 2023; but bank stress highlights weaker outlook
Insight
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Todays podcast VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]
The Forward View – Australia: March 2023
Australia passing through a possible turning point
Insight
AMW: Financial Conditions and implications for the Fed, RBA
This week, we update financial condition indices for Australia and the US and outline how central banks are likely to navigate financial stability and price stability priorities.
Markets Today – So Yesterday
It was another fairly volatile day following the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse, though overall the deal seems to have found some cautious acceptance.
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.
US Economic Update – March 2023
Fed caught between strong data & bank panic
Insight
Markets today – ECB sticks to its guns (sort of)
The ECB delivered on its 50bps rate promise but scraps forward guidance. Meanwhile the US’ First Republic Bank gets a $30bn deposit injection from other banks
China’s Economy at a Glance – March 2023
Modest reopening rebound in early 2023 with consumers yet to re-emerge
Insight
Markets Today – Panic on the dance floor
Banking sector turmoil is back to the fore driving all markets, today centred on Credit Suisse.
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – February 2023
Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending was broadly flat in February.
Insight
AMW: Silicon Valley Bank developments overtake RBA
This week, we consider the likelihood of further tightening by the RBA and what impact - if any - the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank might have.
Markets Today – Are we out of the woods yet?
Bond yields rose sharply on the developing assessment of turmoil in US banking, helped by but largely overshadowing a stubbornly strong US CPI.
Monthly Business Survey: February 2023
Confidence volatile but conditions still strong
Insight
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.
Markets Today: All for the lack of tuppence
The collapse of SVB, the 16th largest bank in the US with $209bn in assets (as at 31 Dec 2022), shook markets on Thursday and Friday. That
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.
China Economic Update – March 2023
Step down: China’s cut its growth target to a multi-decade low
Insight
Markets Today – Get Set
Markets broadly held onto Tuesday’s wild moves, which were driven by US Fed Chair Powell’s Senate Testimony. Overnight Powell spoke again to the House.
AMW – How Australia compares on inflation and activity
Is Australia different? We put the inflation and activity data in context and discuss why Australian rates might not need to go as high as elsewhere.
Markets Today: Warning Sign
The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.
Markets Today: Hawkish Holzmann
Hawkish comments from ECB’s Holzmann send European yields higher in an otherwise quiet night for news flow
Markets Today: I Feel Better
The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.
Markets Today: (No) Resistance
The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q4 2022
The NAB Commercial Property Index improved in Q4, but is still negative overall and trending well below the survey average.
Insight
Markets Today: 99 Luftballons
The US 10yr finally breached 4.00% for the first time since November, following five days of resistance. A hot German CPI and renewed price pressure in the Manufacturing ISM drove, while risk assets were mixed given the strong China PMIs yesterday
Australian Economic Update: Q4 GDP 2022
Growth slows as consumption softens
Insight
The AUD in February 2023
AUD performance in February was an almost exact mirror image of January, AUD/USD trading back down to near 67 cents from above 0.71 cents, having risen from sub-0.67 to above 0.71 in January.
Markets Today: I won’t back down
Upside surprises to European inflation out of Spain and France have seen ECB pricing and European yields push higher, with some bleed through into the US. Elsewhere, US equities are little changed, shrugging off soft consumer confidence data, but are and on track for a monthly decline of more than 2%.
AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong
Overall clients on the Sunshine Coast and Noosa continue to report strong conditions and very tight labour markets. While only a microcosm, the themes from these clients are broadly reflective of what we are picking up in the NAB Business Survey, and it is clear the RBA is not yet in sufficiently restrictive territory to slow demand enough to be confident that inflation will return to the 2-3% target
Markets Today: You’ve Got a Friend in Me
A quiet start to the week with no top-tier data. The biggest piece of news was the EU and UK agreeing to a new Northern Ireland trade agreement, now termed the Windsor Agreement.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: January 2023
In month-on-month terms, growth returned to the NAB Online Retail Sales Index, following on from a weak December result.
Insight
Markets Today: Too Hot
The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.
Australian GDP Preview: Q4 2022
A solid outcome to round out 2022
Insight
Markets Today: Edgy
US equities stage a late recovery, but remain edgy
NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023
A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.
Insight
Markets Today: Wages Day
In Australia yesterday, WPI wages data showed less wages pressure than feared. WPI grew 0.8% q/q and 3.3% y/y, 0.2ppts below the market consensus and RBA expectations.
Capital Markets 2023 post-conference video on-demand
On-demand video from our 2023 virtual Capital Markets Conference – Transition and Challenge.
AMW: Could higher wages push the RBA even further?
Yesterday's Minutes make clear the RBA’s priority is inflation. While the Board is seeking to return inflation to target while keeping the economy on an ‘even keel’ it will do what is necessary to return inflation to target. The wages backdrop is a key risk.
The Forward View – Global: February 2023
Inflation is slowing but is still yet to be tamed
Insight
Markets Today: Resilience and hope drives bond yields higher
The flow of economic data surprises has continued overnight and this time it was a uniformly stronger than expected performance of the services sector across major Developed Market economies.
The Forward View – Australia: February 2023
Rising rates to see slower growth ahead
Insight
Markets Today: US back to work for PMI day
President Biden visited Ukraine, where he pledged ‘unwavering support’ for the country as the Russia’s invasion nears the one-year mark.
Markets Today: All quiet for Presidents Day
It was mostly quiet on Friday and on the weekend, with an initial push higher in yields and sell-off in equities largely reversing later in the session.
Markets Today: Americans and Aussies spend, whilst UK prices slide
US retail sales soared in January jumping 3% well above the consensus, 2.0% and Sales ex-autos jumped by 2.3%, more than double the consensus, 0.9%.
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – January 2023
Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending picked back up in January after a small fall in December, with strength across most spending categories.
Insight
MT: Resilient inflation pushes yields higher and sends stocks in a spin
As for the data itself, US CPI was ever so slightly above consensus.
Resilient 2023 with capital opportunities ahead
A strong start to the new year after a volatile 2022 is offering attractive conditions for capital markets participants ready to act while stability holds.
Article
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 14 February 2023
Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%
Insight
Monthly Business Survey: January 2023
New-year confidence boost as resilience continues
Insight
NAB FX Strategy thematic: Deep dive into super portfolio holdings data
NAB researchers have undertaken a detailed review of a large sample of the portfolio holdings disclosure (PHD) data made available in 2022 under regulatory changes for the industry.
Report
AMW: The RBA, Fed, labour markets and inflation
With many competing influences in the global macro backdrop, in this Weekly we take a step back and outline a framework for how we are making sense of the world.
Markets Today: Fireworks for Inflation Day
The main takeaway being that Americans anticipate income growth to slow and inflation to stay elevated.
Markets Today: Canada’s turn to surprise on jobs
Headlines of impending Ueda nomination for BoJ Governor see volatile yen..
US Economic Update – February 2023
January data surprise = higher fed funds rate
Insight
Markets Today: Mixed messages yet a clear one from bond yields
NY Fed’s Williams stressing importance of financial conditions in policy reaction function..
China Economic Update – February 2023
COVID’s rapid spread may allow a faster economic rebound in 2023
Insight
Markets Today: All quiet but for the sound of central bankers
NY Fed’s Williams stressing importance of financial conditions in policy reaction function..
NAB Markets (Regional & Agribusiness) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?
Inflation continues to dominate the markets narrative, what does the pathway for Interest Rates in 2023 hold & how can NAB Markets support commercial borrowers in managing this risk?
Webinar
Markets Today: Hawkish RBA, open Powell
Powell then also noted how the strength in the labour market underscores why the Fed thinks it could take time to bring inflation down.
Markets Today: Will the RBA join the push to go higher?
The RBA this afternoon and Powell interview in Washington tonight are today’s main draw cards.
Markets Today: Do more jobs mean more work for central banks?
Fed pricing has shot back up following Payrolls and the ISM to almost fully pricing a 25bps March hike and then a follow up May hike (there is now 40bps priced across the two meetings, up from 30bps the day prior).
Markets Today: We don’t believe you
Big moves overnight with the BoE and ECB feeding the market narrative that the end of the tightening phase may be nearing.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – December 2022
Confidence down with constraints remaining tight
Insight
Markets Today: Fed up and the fight ain’t over
Fed hikes by 25bps, signals ‘ongoing rate increases’ will be appropriate..
The AUD in January 2023
AUD/USD began the year at 0.6802 and ended January at 0.7056, a 2.5 cents or 3.7% gain.
AMW: RBA to hold nerve on soft landing despite higher underlying CPI and wages
We expect the forecasts to continue to draw a path to a soft landing, but the characterisation of the risks will be key to determine whether the RBA continues to be confident that it can return inflation to target without pushing rates deep into restrictive territory.
Markets Today: Slower US wages growth gives hope for a Fed pause
First to US wage data overnight. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is closely watched by the Fed as it compositionally adjusts wages growth..
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: December 2022
Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December after two months of growth in October and November.
Insight
Markets Today: ECB still faces inflation and output challenges
Market pricing for ECB meetings increased, helping European yields higher across the curve.
Markets Today: A big week for earnings and central banks
The S&P 500 Index closed 0.25% higher on Friday, finishing the week 2.5% higher.
Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism
Since Australia Day the two biggest pieces of news were the BoC explicitly signalling a pause to the hiking cycle on Wednesday after hiking by 25bps, and US Q4 GDP which although beating expectations had a soft underbelly (2.9% annualised vs. 2.6% expected; but private domestic just 0.2%).
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – December 2022
Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending softened in December after a solid rise in November.
Insight
Markets Today: US stocks hit by reality check, Aussie CPI today
European and US PMIs were the main data flow overnight.
Monthly Business Survey: December 2022
Economy beginning to slow; inflation peak passed
Insight
Markets Today: Thin trade before a flurry of PMIs
Tech stocks lead gains in US equities. NASDAQ up just under 2%.
US Economic Update – January 2023
Q4 GDP looks solid but weakness emerging
Insight
Markets Today: Year of the Rabbit. Ready for the bounce?
5% Netflix post-earnings pop helps drive best day for S&P500 in two weeks
Markets Today: Overreaction to Aussie jobs numbers, none to US debt ceiling
USD softer despite ‘risk-off’ market tone.
Markets Today: Central banks hold out despite weaker data
Very weak US retail and industrial production adds to the tumble in yields
MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.
China’s Economy at a Glance – January 2023
Transition away from zero-COVID could boost growth in 2023, however needs to rebalance towards consumption
Insight
MT: Big questions for BoJ and BoE, with no easy answers
US out for MLK day holiday. S&P futures little changed
Markets Today: Quietly confident
US equities managed to claw back into the green on Friday to extend the strong start to the year.
Markets Today: Heading in the right direction
US CPI cools as expected, but with even more encouraging details.
Markets Today: Aussie Retail Therapy & US Inflation-Watch
Ahead of CPI tonight US Treasuries (and bonds globally) have rallied, 10-year US notes off 5bps (3bps of that seen in the Tokyo session) and 2s down just under 2bps.
NAB Carbon Research: ACCU prices set to soar
ACCU discount to global prices is out-of-step with looming step-change in demand. View the full report.
Markets Today: Early year optimism
Economic news flow overnight has been relatively light, though playing with the grain of the suggestion from last week’s US data (ISM Services) that the US is in process of losing its global growth leadership position.
Markets Today: Big in Japan
BoJ stuns markets with a 0% YCC tolerance band widening…
The AUD in December 2022
AUD/USD ended Dec 2022 much as it started. For 2022 overall, AUD/USD lost 6.2% which was the the second biggest annual range of the past decade, exceeded only in the 2020 first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Markets Today: Big in Japan
The BoJ thus takes out our award for the most unpredictable central bank of 2022.
Markets Today: Last minutes before Christmas
Equity sentiment has not been helped by a decent sell-off in core global bonds.
MT: US services slide; China promises a J-curve recovery
Recession risks were highlighted on Friday with the US S&P Global Services PMI again in contractionary territory.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022
Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.
Insight
Markets Today: Hawks fly over frigid Europe
Hawkish ECB rhetoric post 50bps rate rise spooks risk markets
China’s Economy at a Glance – December 2022
Latest COVID-19 wave impacting activity in Q4; COVID policy pivot could provide boost in 2023 (after transition period).
Insight
The Forward View – Global: December 2022
With inflation still high, policy rate hikes to slow growth in ‘23
Insight
Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.
AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered
In today’s weekly, we suggest a framework for sifting through the various forces buffeting the 2023 outlook and pose five big questions that we think need to be answered to judge how the economy and central bank policy will evolve in 2023.
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022
Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: December 2022
Slow growth ahead after final rebound bump in Q3
Insight
MT: Christmas comes early with cooler US inflation
CPI comes in cool at 0.1% m/m and 7.1% y/y, two tenths below consensus
Monthly Business Survey: November 2022
Confidence now negative, despite strong conditions.
Insight
MT: US equities bounce ahead of a divided Fed
A distinctly cautious air prevails in front of tonight’s all-important US CPI release and tomorrow’s FOMC.
MT: US producer prices spark inflation worries ahead of the Fed
Solid US PPI cements apprehension ahead of the US CPI & FOMC
MT: Slight risk bounce as US markets “clutch at straws”
It was a quiet night for markets devoid of any top-tier data or news flow ahead of key risk events next week (of US CPI, FOMC, ECB).
US Economic Update – December 2022
Domestic demand solid early in Q4
Insight
Markets Today: Bouncebackability
The Bank of Canada rose 50bps, the sixth consecutive increase, and took the target rate to 4.25%.
Australian Economic Update: Q3 GDP 2022
Post-COVID normalisation continues.
Insight
AMW: Fed Pressure Index and recession signals from the US ISMs
A key issue for markets is whether the US economy is headed for a recession in 2023, and when can we expect a meaningful moderation in inflation that would then enable the Fed to start to pivot
MT: No surprises from RBA but BoC on a knife-edge
The RBA increased interest rates by 25bp to 3.1% and continues to guide that “the Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead".
China Economic Update – December 2022
US chips controls could constrain China’s tech development goals
Insight
Markets Today: Fed’s terminal rate, heading higher?
WSJ’s Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos wrote overnight if CPI on Tuesday comes in hot then the Fed could consider another 50bp increase in February.
Markets Today: The Central Bank Dilemma – is it working?
The dollar was softer and US yields lower over the past week as markets both pared terminal rate pricing and priced in more cuts from mid 2023.
Australian GDP Preview: Q3 2022
Slowing growth as consumption, trade normalise
Insight
Portfolio holdings data: Super funds well-positioned for market volatility
NAB and ASFA examine superannuation portfolio holdings disclosure data released this year as part of regulatory changes aimed at enhancing industry transparency.
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MT: What did markets like about Powell’s speech?
Markets hold, and more importantly extend yesterday’s post-Powell moves.
First Look 2022: US Private Placement conference makes a lasting impression
Investors head Down Under with NAB to meet local issuers keen to engage with a uniquely stable, long-term funding source amid volatile times.
The AUD in November 2022
The AUD ended the month in the ascendency, boosted by a less hawkish than feared Fed Chair Powell speech, forcing a broad USD retreat.
Markets Today: Powell slightly less than very hawkish
Markets were relatively muted ahead of Powell’s remarks with US yields and the Dollar were tracking a little higher and equities a little weaker.
AMW: RBA Review – is it matching expectations so far?
The RBA Review is underway and the three panel members recently publicly discussed their approach. In this Weekly we summarise these discussions and what changes the RBA panel is likely to recommend.
MT: China calms down, European inflation eases
China vaccination push sees Hang Seng gains extended to 5%+ by the close
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: October 2022
Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index is back in positive territory.
Insight
Markets Today: ECB minutes, little action, no spoilers
In a quitter session, relative to recent times, the risk positive vibes have extended into a third consecutive day with higher global equity markets, lower global rates and a weaker USD.
MT: Softer data, slower Fed and more Russian oil
The single biggest piece of market-moving economic news overnight has come via the US S&P Global PMIs, which slumped to 47.6 from 50.4, well below the 50.0 consensus.
NAB’s Renewables Survey November 2022
NAB’s 2022 Renewables Survey signals a further acceleration of Australia’s transition to renewable energy and net zero carbon emissions policies, a trend we expect to see globally into 2030.
AMW: The Q3 WPI will make the RBA nervous
In this Weekly, we dive into last week’s Q3 WPI to explain why the RBA should be more nervous about their strategy and why a near-term pause is unlikely.
Markets Today: One more pivot before Thanksgiving
US equity investors are certainly looking at the glass half full ahead of Thanksgiving tomorrow with all major equity indices showing decent gains on the day.
Markets Today: Oil, more or less?
Oil market volatility is showing no signs of let-up , Brent crude down to a low of $83 overnight on a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Saudi Arabia was contemplating a 500,000 barrels per day production increase from December.
Markets Today: A rare dull day
Latest Fed speak from Boston Fed President Collins, suggests 75bps is still in play for December, noting markets price around 52bps for the December meeting.
Markets Today: Tighter than ever
US yields are higher and the dollar stronger in a modest and reversal of some of last week’s post CPI moves as Fed speakers remain stubborn that rates will continue to go higher to get to a level that is sufficiently restrictive.
MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?
Fed speakers were clear that a pause is not imminent and there is more to do, even as they may move at a slower pace, while stronger US retail sales numbers showed resilience in spending, providing some small counter to the burst of optimism after softer-than-expected US inflation data last week.
Markets Today: A step too far
It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD
AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?
In this Weekly, we explore recent RBA communications and forecasts and what it means for the path forward. It is clear there is a very high bar to step back up to 50bp hikes.
China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2022
China refines, not abandons, zero-COVID and remains without an exit strategy
Insight
Markets Today: A slight reality check
The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.
Markets Today: False Hopes?
US CPI, US political gridlock (maybe) and China covid policy tweaks...
NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022
We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.
Insight
Markets Today: A welcome relief
It has been a super risk positive night courtesy of a big downward surprise in the US CPI release.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2022
NAB’s Commercial Property Index shifted back into negative territory in Q3.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: November 2022
Further monetary tightening to significantly slow growth in 2023.
Insight
Markets Today: Inflation Day
Republican ‘red wave’ failed to materialise, but still expect slim House majority
The Forward View – Australia: November 2022
Higher rates to slow growth to below 1% in 2023.
Insight
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022
Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.
Insight
AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting
By downshifting the pace of hikes, central banks are acknowledging that decisions are becoming more finely balanced as they tread a fine line of returning inflation to target, while avoiding significantly overtightening policy and slowing the economy more than needed.
Markets Today: Downturns, mid-terms, no U-turns
The NAB Business Survey showed Conditions falling just one point to +22 to remain at very elevated levels, above the pre-pandemic highs for the series.
Monthly Business Survey: October 2022
Conditions still strong but confidence weaker
Insight
Markets Today: An end to China’s Zero COVID, or not?
Speculation about China reopening continues to add some market volatility with WSJ reporting Chinese leaders were considering reopening steps getting some notice.
MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again
Risk appetite soared on Friday as Chinese whispers swept markets last week that China had put together a ‘conditional re-opening plan’, reportedly mapping out a material re-opening by March 2023.
US Economic Update – November 2022
Q3 GDP – economy growing again (for now).
Markets Today: A Tale of Two Britains
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting continues to reverberate through markets.
China Economic Update – November 2022
Could Xi Jinping extend his leadership beyond his third term?
Insight
MT: No Pivot from the Fed, but markets bounce about
FOMC Statement hints at reduced pace of tightening ahead…
Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race
It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.
The AUD in October 2022
Australia specific influences on AUD once again played second fiddle to broader USD volatility and swings in risk sentiment.
Markets Today: The Bank That Stops Inflation, eventually
NAB has pencilled in a 25bp hike, we also think there is a real risk that the RBA hikes by 50bps, and that this risk is higher than the 22% chance that markets are currently pricing.
MT: Will markets be spooked by scary central banks?
Big gains in US equities on Friday help extend rally for a second week
Corporate cards go virtually seamless
The rise of e-commerce as an enduring consumer trend is driving a new kind of payments experience within the corporate and government space.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: September 2022
NAB Online Retail Sales Index returns to growth in September
Insight
MT: ECB slowing to a crawl now? More recession and pivot talk
The ECB meeting was the big event for markets last night and as expected the Bank delivered a 75bps hike, but it sounded less committal on future rate hikes.
Markets Today: Cries of ‘Pivot!’ as BoC slows hikes
Yields are generally lower globally as the earlier run up in expectations for central bank tightening are pared a little further. A hike of ‘only’ 50bp from the BoC helping that sentiment.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 26 October 2022
Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%
Insight
MT: Why do so many expect the Fed to slow down?
Last night’s first Federal Budget under Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers contained no fireworks, falling fully in line with pre-Budget media briefings.
Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM
The UK has a new PM in Rishi Sunak, and gilts have rallied in response. UK 10yr gilt yields were 31bp lower at 3.75%. That’s 90bp off their peak of 4.64%, but still about 60bp above their level before the Truss Premiership.
AMW: Supply chain update, price reductions in coming months
This week we provide a further update on supply chain disruptions and highlight a few areas where businesses might reasonably expect some lower prices from suppliers in coming months.
China’s Economy at a Glance – October 2022
Growth rebounded in Q3, but base effects flattered the results
Insight
MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in
Friday’s offshore markets produced as many fireworks as we have seen on just about any day this year with the mere suggestion of the Fed stepping down from 75bps to a 50bps incremental rate hike in December producing a fierce rally in US equities.
Markets Today: The battle for Britain
Terminal Fed Funds pricing have lifted to 5.00% by March 2023 from 4.92% last week and continue to price a 75bp hike at the upcoming November FOMC meeting and a 75% chance of a follow up 75bp at the December meeting.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – September 2022
Conditions holding up as constraints tighten
Insight
Markets Today: Full reversal, for today
Yields rose to fresh cycle highs and risk appetite soured. US equities were lower, halting a 2-day rally despite relatively upbeat earnings from the likes of Netflix and United Airlines.
Markets Today: Tails(s) Wag Dog(s)
The selloff in bonds has seen a ‘reversal of the reversal’.
Markets Today: Brits Big U Turn, America Buys the Dip
Another big UK fiscal U-turn and positive earnings from BofA boosted global risk appetite last night.
Markets Today: Where does it end?
Rise in 1y ahead US inflation expectations spooks markets
State Economic Overview October 2022
COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere
Insight
NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022
Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.
Insight
MT: Massive swings as US inflation stays high
Volatile overnight session sees risk on, risk off then risk on again
The Forward View – Global: October 2022
Central banks inflation priority leads to weak growth outlook
Insight
Markets Today: Less jobs before Fed stops
UK markets remain at the epicentre of global market volatility
AMW: CPI Preview: Q3 CPI seen +1.6% q/q on trimmed mean and 1.3% on headline
Q3 CPI is on Wednesday 26 October and we forecast Headline of 1.3% q/q and 6.7% y/y.
NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – September 2022
Our new monthly consumer spending analysis shows spending has remained strong over recent months, supported by rebounding hospitality spending and discretionary spending on travel and other activities.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: October 2022
Near term resilience but a slowing ahead
Insight
Markets Today: Don’t panic Mr. Bailey
Bailey in Washington says bond purchases will end as scheduled on Friday
Monthly Business Survey: September 2022
Conditions roar as costs show signs of easing
Insight
Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain
Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.
Markets Today: Tight labour, hawkish banks, angry Putin
It was ‘good news is bad news’ for US Payrolls which were a touch better than expected and seen as too solid to support a pivot narrative.
US Economic Update – October 2022
Recession risk – Q3 breather likely temporary
Insight
Markets Today: Even less pivot hope, from Paris
In Australia there are two macro developments worth watching, Seek new job ads and Consumption imports in the August trade balance.
MT: Pivot talk killed by resilient services ISM read
Another volatile session in markets; US equities opened lower, not helped by anticipated news of a bigger oil cut supply agreement by OPEC +.
AMW: Preliminary Q3 CPI thoughts and the inflation outlook
In this weekly we give our initial thoughts on Q3 CPI following last week’s August monthly CPI indicator. We will provide a full preview early next week ahead of Q3 CPI on 26 October.
Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
Yesterday 25bps RBA cash rate rise, defied the broad consensus among economists and investors (~45bps was priced in for the meeting) but which was justified by the Board in part on the premise that “the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time”.
China Economic Update – October 2022
Vicious cycle: falling land sales hitting local government revenues
Insight
The AUD in September 2022
The AUD/USD high of 0.6916 came on the 13th and the low of 0.6363 on the 29th (last day of the month).
MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in
A surprise U-turn by the UK government on the fiscal package and a weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) have driven a large fall in global yields.
Markets Today: No slowdown yet: Euro inflation and US core PCE
US equites fall on Friday to close out a 3rd consecutive negative quarter
Sustainable Finance market overview: October 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Newsletter
Sustainable Finance update: October 2022
A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Newsletter
Sustainable Finance recent deals: October 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Newsletter
Sustainable Finance investor and market news: October 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Newsletter
MT: UK calmer, US stocks fall, yields rising, hawkish Fed/ECB
In a positive development the OBR will provide preliminary costings of the UK’s fiscal package on 7 October, instead of the previously signalled deadline of November 23 (the same day as the Budget).
Markets Today: UK ticked off by IMF, BoE goes back to QE
Bank of England has pledged to buy up to £5bn of longer dated gilts each day for up to 13 days (£65bn total) with a motive of protecting the UK pension industry.
AMW: Where have all the workers gone: Australia?
We explore in detail three features of the post-pandemic labour market that have added frictions and disrupted the supply of labour over and above the shifting macro environment.
MT: US dollar and bond yields continue to rise, till when?
UK rates continue to push higher
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: August 2022
In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index has contracted for a seventh straight month.
Insight
Markets Today: Unruly Britannia
Fallout from UK mini-budget continues.
China Economic Update – September 2022
Buyers fight back: Mortgage strike points to property sector’s weak underpinnings
Insight
Markets Today: The pound hammered, will it last?
Epicentre of current market turmoil shifts across the Atlantic to UK on Friday
Markets Today: Central bank overload
BoE, SNB and Norges Bank follow the Fed’s +75bps with 50bps, 75bps, 50bps respectively
Markets Today: 0.75% hike by the Fed, no bluff
Fed hikes 75bps as expected, looks for 125bps in ’22 then 25bps more in ‘23
AMW: Business conditions and consumer sentiment
Markets will be looking for any clues from the RBA Board Minutes as to whether the RBA might step down from its 50bps rises back to 25bps.
MT: Fed to push higher, Putin pushing for referendums
A sourer tone took hold over the past 24 hours, with equities lower and haven currencies, including the dollar, stronger.
Markets Today: Fears the Fed will ‘keep at it’ for a while yet
US yields continued to push higher ahead of the FOMC
MT: Prepare for a volatile week of Banks and Holidays
Last week will be marked out as one of the more tumultuous for financial markets since the early days of the pandemic, says NAB's Ray Attrill.
China’s Economy at a Glance – September 2022
Base effects flatter August’s growth rates, as a fresh COVID-19 wave threatens outlook
Insight
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 16 September 2022
50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22
Insight
NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022
We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.
Insight
Markets Today: Heading higher and taking longer
Volatility has come roaring back in Thursday’s offshore session.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 10 September 2022
NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data to 10 September shows unexpected strength over the last two weeks.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: September 2022
Economic outlook weakens as central banks continue to tighten.
Insight
Markets Today: The day after. No big bounce.
After recording hefty losses post the US CPI release on Tuesday, US equity markets closed with modest gains.
The Forward View – Australia: September 2022
Growth to slow as rates and inflation bite.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: August 2022
Our data mapping points to a slight drop in retail sales in August.
Insight
AMW: NAB Survey still points to very high inflation
This week we update our analysis of the inflation reads in the NAB Business Survey and what this may mean for CPI pressures in Australia, particularly in Q3.
Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet
Today’s podcast Overview Rumours of inflation’s demise much exaggerated US CPI shocks to the upside: stocks, bonds take fright USD bounces back, AUD and NZD both down by more than 2% Next week’s Fed debate now seen to be between 75 and 100bps (83bps priced) German ZEW survey readings slumps while US NFIB Business Optimism […]
Monthly Business Survey: August 2022
No signs of slow down yet as strong conditions roll on.
Insight
Markets Today: The risk of rising risk sentiment
Positive risk sentiment ahead of US CPI tonight.
Markets Today: Fed still pushing, BoE pushes back
Risk appetite improves despite hawkish Fed talk
Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates
It has been all about the ECB and Fed overnight with the former delivering a jumbo hike and hinting at more to come while Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to act forcefully against inflation
Markets Today: High hopes of smaller hikes
A volatile night where earlier price action in Asia was largely reversed.
Australian Economic Update: Q2 GDP 2022
A solid result ahead of a slower H2 2022
Insight
Markets Today: More work for Fed, UK’s massive Truss Fund
A broad rise in core global yields has been the big news overnight, fuelled by a better-than-expected US ISM report and news UK PM Truss is planning a huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus.
AMW: Two large, overlapping shocks and MP decision
NAB expects the fourth successive 50bps interest rate increase to be announced on Tuesday as the RBA moves policy back to a more neutral level.
MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today
Eurozone bonds yields and stocks falling on the latest jump in energy prices – both oil and gas – following confirmation the NordSteeam1 gas pipeline will remain shut while Russian sanctions are in place.
Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment
A goldilocks payrolls report failed to support risk assets on Friday, with equities and the USD quickly reversing on news that Russia was not restarting gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline
Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2022
A solid outcome ahead of a slower H2 2022.
Insight
The AUD in August 2022
The AUD/USD spent August oscillating around the 70 US cents mark but spent much more time below than above.
MT: Will strong jobs numbers add to the Fed’s battle?
The bond sell-off shows no signs of abating with a stronger than expected US ISM Manufacturing helping to drive the US 10yr yield up.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 27 August 2022
NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the weakening trend of the past few months continues, albeit from a very high base.
Insight
NAB Foreign Exchange
We'll help you find the right foreign exchange risk management strategy by understanding your core business and the challenges you face every day.
Markets Today: Euro inflation hits new high
August has been a terrible month for balance fund investors with no diversification gains from holding a portfolio of equities and bonds.
AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?
Central bank officials from around the world met at Jackson Hole last week. In this Weekly we highlight the key discussion points and what implications this may have.
Markets Today: More good news, that’s actually bad news
Goldman’s noted inflation could hit 22.4% y/y in the UK in early 2023 if gas prices don’t moderate and if there is little in the way of cost of living relief.
US Economic Update – August 2022
Labour market still very tight despite GDP fall
Insight
Markets Today: Aussie yields push higher
Following a negative lead from Asia, US and EU equities have begun the new week on the back foot.
This morning’s happy birthday call
After clocking 5.5 million podcast plays and 15,000 daily listeners, NAB’s Morning Call is celebrating six years of market highlights, with even more expert analysis to come.
Podcast
Markets Today: Investors respond to Powell comments
Fed chair Jay Powell’s address to the Kansas Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday was short and as far as equity market investors were concerned, bitter not sweet.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: July 2022
NAB's Online Retail Sales Index continued to contract in July.
Insight
Markets Today: Peering into Jackson hole
Another day spent in anticipation of Powell’s speech tonight
Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe
Another night devoid of top-tier data or news flow. The past week has been a bit like Waiting for Godot with markets apprehensive ahead of US Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
MT: Business activity falls, but not enough to slow the Fed
Composite PMI sub-50 everywhere in the world bar UK; US worst of all.
AMW: Wages to accelerate despite gradual lift in WPI
In this weekly, we explain why other wage indicators are lifting more strongly, including from NAB’s own business survey.
Markets Today: European gas prices push ever higher
Markets are apprehensive ahead of US Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday
Markets Today: Shopping to the very end
NAB's Rodrigo Catril says the Canadians are out shopping; we also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949.
Markets Today: Fed still trying to show they won’t give in
Following yesterday’s FOMC Minutes overnight we’ve heard from FOMC members wanting the Funds Rate up to 3.75-4.0% this year and questioning why you’d want to drag rate rises out into next year.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 13 August 2022
NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the moderation in spending growth continues post-EOFY peak, albeit from elevated levels.
Insight
Markets Today: UK’s sticker shock inflation drives caution
In Australia, wages data for the 3 months to May disappointed most forecasters, though the result was in line with the RBA August SoMP (and NAB) forecast.
China’s Economy at a Glance – August 2022
Reopening rebound limited by weakness in domestic demand and credit appetite
Insight
AMW: Hot inflation, what does this mean for CPI?
This week we expand on the hot inflation reads seen in the NAB Business Survey and what this may mean for CPI pressures in Australia, particularly for Q3.
Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ
After a negative start, US equities managed to end the day in positive territory supported by better than expected earnings reports from retailers.
Markets Today: Slow boat from China
Oil prices have fallen to their lowest since early February 2022 with falls of around 4% in part due to weaker China demand.
MT: A positive outlook, apart from the downturn
Equities continued their relentless rise, brushing off the inflation expectations data and hawkish Fed rhetoric
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022
We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.
Insight
Markets Today: Not convinced by the Fed
The San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly warned it is too early to ‘declare victory’ over inflation.
The Forward View – Global: August 2022
Weaker growth prospects, persistent inflation & geopolitical risk
Insight
Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?
It was all about US CPI overnight with markets reacting sharply to a lower than expected print with Equity and FX markets taking the CPI miss as a positive signal, taking some pressure off the Fed and a sign that inflation has peaked.
Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2022
Our data mapping points to moderate growth in retail sales in July.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: August 2022
Rebound set to fade as consumption slows in H2 2022
Insight
Markets Today: Inflation Day
There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.
AMW: Job ads look to have topped out – what does it mean?
In this Weekly we look at job ads in more detail to see what they may be portending for activity, and we also cross check the data with other information.
Monthly Business Survey: July 2022
Confidence & conditions rally as economy strains capacity limits
Insight
Markets Today: Markets in Limbo
China is continuing its military drills around Taiwan, but that hasn’t impacted markets apart from gold (+0.7% to 1,787.61) retaining some slight geopolitical risk premium.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 30 July 2022
While consumption has outperformed in the pandemic era – notwithstanding significant differences between sectors – gravity now appears to be catching up.
Insight
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2022
NAB's Commercial Property Index eased to +1 pt in Q2 (+11 in Q1) amid reports market is starting to respond to higher inflation and interest rates.
Insight
China Economic Update – August 2022
Walking away? China’s ambitious growth target has moved too far out of reach.
Insight
Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?
An all-round stronger than expected US employment report Friday dominated the end-of-week market price action; whether they extend or at least partially reverse this week hinges in large part on Wednesday’s US July CPI data.
Markets Today: Uncertainty reigns, except in Britain.
As widely expected, the BoE lifted the cash rate by 50bps and retained the option to act forcefully in the future, the Bank now officially sees a recession in the horizon.
MT: The quick path to credible disinflation and other stories
A few hours on from Nancy Pelosi leaving Taiwan and markets have almost forgotten she ever came. Equity market have recovered their poise, a tech sector rally seeing the NASDAQ close at its highest level since 4 May.
AMW: Outlook for wages with unemployment at 3.5%
Our analysis in this weekly highlights that the RBA is indeed treading a fine line in trying to chart a credible path to at target inflation.
MT: Pelosi in Taiwan, Fed nowhere near almost done
In Australia, the RBA met yesterday and raised the official cash rate by 50bps to 1.85% as expected, the third consecutive 50bps increase to be at its highest level since April 2016.
The AUD in July 2022
The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.6903, fell to its monthly low of 0.6682 on July 14 and made a high of 0.7032 on July 29 before closing the month at 0.6985.
MT: Recession signs, RBA to hike, grains from Odessa
Data releases over the past 24 hours have provided further evidence the global economy is slowing. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI confirmed that China’s reopening rebound is over.
MT: No inflation slowdown, just wishful thinking
US economic data on Friday underscored the inflation challenge facing the Fed
US Economic Update – July 2022
GDP falls again in Q2
Insight
MT: When is a recession not really a recession?
ECB’s Visco says “there is a risk of a recession” and that ECB policy can’t drive down gas prices.
Markets Today: Fed hikes 75bp, no forward guidance
The Fed delivered a unanimous 75bp hike as widely anticipated.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: June 2022
In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in June.
Insight
AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target
The Terms of Reference for the RBA Review have been finalised, the three-member review panel appointed, and March 2023 set as a deadline for a final report containing recommendations to the Government. In this Weekly, we look at what to expect.
MT: Shares down, consumers change focus
More price increases are likely for food and grocery. If they continue to rise in Q3 and Q4, it is hard to see US core inflation numbers moderate sufficiently for the Fed to pivot.
Markets Today: Then there was one (turbine)
Kremlin confirms 20% cut of gas to Europe from Wednesday. Gas up 9%
Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA
A round of softer than expected PMIs on Friday added further fuel to ongoing concerns over a global economic slowdown with the move into contractionary mode for both the EuroZone composite and US Services PMIs the main culprits.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 22 July 2022
NAB now expects rates to reach 2.85% by year-end.
Insight
Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero
The ECB hiked rates by a more-than-expected 50bps, taking the deposit rate back to 0% and ending its negative interest rate policy that has been in place since 2014
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 16 July 2022
While the new financial year has seen lower spending, the trend shows a very moderate decline.
Insight
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – June 2022
Strong conditions as inflationary pressure builds.
Insight
MT: Gas will trickle, Draghi will go, ECB will hike
Draghi’s government looks set to fall after three key parties failed to support him in a confidence vote which could complicate the ECB plans to deliver details on its new anti-fragmentation tool.
Markets Today: Markets set for a tougher ECB
ECB now seen hiking by 50bps tomorrow and then again in September
AMW: Household sector starts to respond to higher rates
In this Weekly we shine a spotlight on the household sector and what trends are starting to show as households react to higher interest rates and above-target inflation.
China’s Economy at a Glance – July 2022
COVID-19 measures hit China’s economy harder than expected in Q2, and present downside risk to the outlook.
Insight
Markets Today: Gas to Europe unlikely this week
Oil is the standout mover, Brent +$4.50 and WTI crude +$4.60 on reports Saudi Arabia won’t be pumping any more oil
Markets Today: A Good Friday but a crunch week for Europe
Risk sentiment rallied on Friday with a better than expected US retail sales print and positive earnings from Citigroup lifting equities
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022
Globally, major central banks continue to tighten monetary policy in response to the highest inflation in decades, thereby straining household finances and leading to falls in asset prices. For Australia, we have not changed our view on the underlying trajectory for the economy but see greater risk for household consumption on the back of higher rates and inflation.
Insight
Markets Today: Aussies Take Up Jobs as Draghi Tries to Quit
Australian employment data yesterday was showed a tighter labour market than the RBA had been expecting with the unemployment rate plummeting four tenths to 3.5% , a new 48-year low.
The Forward View – Global: July 2022
Tightening monetary policy puts the brakes on growth prospects
Insight
Markets Today: US Inflation rises, everything is in play
Bank of Canada surprises with ‘front-loaded’ 100bps rate rise
The Forward View – Australia: July 2022
Interest rates & inflation to weigh on the consumer.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2022
Overall retail spending looks to be coming under increasing pressure.
Insight
Markets Today: Freaking out over inflation
Risk off again overnight as recession fears intensify
AMW: Inflation and our RBA call
In this Weekly we highlight some of the indicators that suggest a peak in global inflation is near
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 12 July 2022
NAB now expects rates to reach 2.35% by year-end.
Insight
Monthly Business Survey: June 2022
Business confidence falls further while conditions hold up.
Insight
MT: China flares up, Putin flexes more, US Dollar higher
Risk off ahead of a big week for data, partly driven mainly by China virus news
NAB Markets – Interest Rate Update July 2022 Post RBA Decision
Global Central Banks have been lifting interest rates to combat 40-year high inflation numbers. What does this mean for commercial borrowers? Watch now.
Webinar
MT: Healthy jobs data bad news for the economy
US June non-farm payroll employment 372k vs. 265k expected.
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope, except for Boris
Risk sentiment improved over the past 24 hours.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 2 July 2022
Consumers spending big on EOFY sales.
Insight
NAB Markets – Interest Rate Update Post RBA Meeting July 2022
Global Central Banks have been lifting interest rates to combat 40-year high inflation numbers. What does this mean for commercial borrowers?
Webinar
Markets Today: Significant risk, still?
Higher US yields together with a further drop in the EUR sees the USD in DXY terms now at its highest since September 2002.
MT: Oil Dives, Bonds Rally and Recession Fears grow
Brent oil prices are down 17% since 14 June and have the potential to drive some welcome relief on headline inflation prints.
AMW: How will central banks respond to recession risks?
In this Weekly we explore how central banks may respond to rising recession risk and expand upon some of the leading indicators of recession
Markets Today: Australia, faring better than most
Europe remains stuck in the middle between the Russia/Ukraine crisis and a weakening global economy
China Economic Update – July 2022
How will the US respond to China’s failure to meet its trade commitments?
Insight
Markets Today: Independence Day: Recession Resurgence
After a dismal first half, US equities start H2-22 with a positive tone
The AUD in June 2022
The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.7170, made a high of 0.7283 on June 3 and fell to its monthly low of 0.6851 on June 15.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 25 June 2022
Our latest weekly consumer tracking data shows something of a mixed picture.
Insight
Markets Today: Understanding how little we understand
Core global yields have been the big market movers overnight with European bonds leading the decline in yields.
AMW: Fed Pressure Index has correctly signalled inflationary pressures
In this weekly, we look at some indicators that might reliably provide warning of some unwind or easing of the supply chain disruptions.
Markets Today: Less US confidence, tough talking ECB
Weaker US consumer confidence dents equities
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: May 2022
In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in May.
Insight
Sustainable Finance Update: June 2022
A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Sustainable Finance Update: June 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Sustainable Finance Update: June 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Sustainable Finance Update: June 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Markets Today: Heading for a choppy end to Q2
US equity markets have begun the new week on the back foot with a clear lack of conviction.
Focus on supply chain risk
The ongoing disruption of the pandemic and Russia and Ukraine conflict have highlighted the need for a different approach to global logistics.
Markets Today: Is bad news good news these days?
It was a great day for US stocks on Friday, with two-thirds of the mid-month sell-off now retraced.
Markets Today: Unconditional commitment, come what may
Despite softer PMIs and still-hawkish messaging from the Fed, US equities managed to turn around intraday.
Markets Today: Powell admits recession is possible
Recession or hard landing fears have taken a firmer hold on most markets in the past 24 hours.
Transitioning to Net Zero post-conference video on-demand
On-demand video from our virtual Transitioning to Net Zero conference.
AMW: Headline CPI of 7% over 2022 looks reasonable
The RBA has upgraded its inflation forecasts, now seeing headline inflation at 7% by the end of 2022.
Markets Today: Brighter days ahead
Some relief in equities with a strong bounce back from last week’s decline
US Economic Update – June 2022
The Fed tightens the screws.
Insight
Markets Today: Is the RBA preparing to go harder?
The RBA is front and centre in local markets this morning.
Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric
US and European equities showed signs of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week which was not helped by Fed Chair Powell's words that the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022
Global inflation remains high and showing no signs of easing, placing pressure on household finances. For Australia, we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets go cuckoo as the Swiss clock a half percent hike
The Bank of England rose rate by 25bps and left its options wide open on future moves
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 11 June 2022
Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 11 June shows ongoing signs of deterioration, albeit from elevated levels earlier this year.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: June 2022
Global growth prospects continue to weaken.
Insight
Markets Today: A big step to the soft landing few believe will happen
Fed delivers 75bps rate rise, sees 50 or 75 most likely at next meeting
Women building a better property finance sector
A NAB networking event connects women across construction and property finance to help promote female participation in the sector.
China’s Economy at a Glance – June 2022
COVID-19 uncertainty continues to cloud China’s economic outlook.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: May 2022
Our data show a drop in retail sales in May, albeit from generally strong levels seen earlier in the year.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: June 2022
Higher inflation, higher rates & slower growth ahead.
Insight
AMW: Inflation expectations will see central banks become even more hawkish
The key policy challenge will be to gradually return inflation to the 2%/2-3% target ranges sought in the US and Australia respectively, while avoiding taking interest rates too high producing a recession and a sustained rise in unemployment
Markets Today: The day before the dots
Ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting we have seen an increase in market volatility across Equity, Rates and FX.
Monthly Business Survey: May 2022
Confidence eases but conditions and outlook remain strong.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets Panic after US inflation surprise
A hot US CPI report and signs of inflation expectations de-anchoring on Friday has seen yields surge, risk assets sell off, and recession talk rise.
Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial
Announcing the end of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as of July 1, the ECB also pre-announced a 25bps rise in interest rates out of its July meeting with a further rise planned out of the Sept meeting.
Markets Today: Oil jumps, shares fall, inflation forecasts worsen
Rise in oil prices fuels inflationary concerns and the need for central banks to increase their hawkishness.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 8 June 2022
RBA rushing to neutral, rates to reach 2.10% by year-end.
Insight
Markets Today: RBA, far from business as usual
RBA surprises (most) for second month running with 50bps Cash Rate rise to 0.85%
AMW: RBA: the top ten reasons we expect today’s interest rate increase to be 25bps
The RBA’s Board meets today and a further interest rate increase is unanimously expected by market economists with the size of the rate increase uncertain.
Markets Today: Rates jump, Boris’ near miss, RBA today
Yields rose notably in what was a quiet night for data and events.
Markets Today: Get ready for RBA, ECB and US CPI
Markets took the strong US payroll gains on Friday as affirming the near-term path for continued Fed tightening.
Markets Today: More oil, weaker jobs growth. Equities live on hope.
A positive day for risk sentiment ahead of US Payrolls tonight on no new news
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 28 May 2022
Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 28 May was broadly solid, although there are signs of softening from highs earlier this year.
Insight
Markets Today: Rates boosted as US data support aggressive Fed hikes
Reaction to a strong set of US data releases has been the main story overnight
Australian Economic Update: Q1 GDP 2022
A solid result despite virus disruptions early in the year.
Insight
AMW: RBA Review to begin ‘relatively soon.’ What to expect
A review into the RBA is expected to occur “relatively soon” according to the newly elected Labor Government.
China Economic Update – June 2022
Low cost outlier: China’s consumer price growth has remained weaker than most international peers.
Insight
The AUD in May 2022
AUD/USD hit a near two-year low of 0.6829 on May 13 after hitting its highest May prints earlier in the month (0.7266, seen on both May 4 and 5).
Markets Today: EU sanctions, more in the pipeline?
Inflation is back in focus with European inflation at its highest ever level of 8.1% y/y helping rates extend yesterday’s selloff.
Markets Today: German inflation concerns, but equity markets refuse to freak out
Brent oil recorded its 8-consecutive day of price increases, supported by expectations of a China reopening in addition to the expected EU Russian oil ban.
FX innovation powers sustainability goals
NAB’s first sustainability-linked foreign exchange (FX) derivative aligns environmental, social and governance (ESG) targets with financial risk management for a major London-listed infrastructure investment company.
Markets Today: A piggy bank backed recovery
After having moved briefly into bear market territory the previous Friday, last Friday saw the S&P500 up by its largest weekly gain so far this year.
Australian GDP Preview: Q1 2022
Imports to weigh on growth despite strong consumption.
Insight
Markets Today: Equities and bonds markets divided
US equities had a strong night with the S&P500 +2.0% and NASDAQ 2.7%.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: April 2022
In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted for a third consecutive month in April.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets accept rate hikes if they tame inflation
The market found some relief on the notion that the FOMC Minutes revealed a broad consensus for 50bps hikes in June and July and the possibility for a pause later in the year.
US Economic Update – May 2022
Revising down US growth forecasts.
Insight
AMW: There’s more to normalisation than short rates, financial conditions matter
In this Weekly. we discuss how broader financial conditions, and not just the cash rate, are influencing the economic outlook.
Markets Today: Markets Snap Out of It
Monday’s upbeat sentiment was short-lived with falls in equities and yields overnight.
Markets Today: Hope springs eternal, well, for today anyway
A more positive risk backdrop begins the new week. US equities are higher, the S&P500 up 1.9%, extending a turnaround after dipping into bear market territory intraday on Friday.
Markets Today: New Australian government, same global concerns
The S&P500 falls into bear market terrain Friday before late day pull-up
Markets Today: Who can slow down the slowdown?
Although employment growth disappointed yesterday, and along with wages data from earlier in the week, remains consistent with a rate rise of 25bp by the RBA in June.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 14 May 2022
Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 14 May was broadly quite encouraging.
Insight
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2022
NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose to +11 pts in Q1, building on the gains seen in the last quarter when the index moved back into positive territory for the first time in 2 years.
Insight
Markets Today: Equities bomb as investors are reminded of inflation
The S&P500 high to low fall since the early January high puts it down 19% year to date and although not officially in bear market territory yet, looks to be only a matter of time.
Markets Today: China reopening, Americans shopping, Brits working
The UK's unemployment rate fell to it's lowest level since 1974 and along with a further pickup in average earnings growth, now see money markets pricing 125bps of BOE rate hikes by December.
AMW: Delving deeper into the NAB Survey on costs & prices
It’s clear that with unemployment close to full employment levels and inflation way above target and forecast to rise higher, Australian interest rate settings should no longer be anywhere close to the emergency low settings implemented in the pandemic.
Markets Today: Markets tossed back and forth in a sea of uncertainty
The biggest news overnight is commodities, oil prices are up, which threatens to prolong the inflation narrative.
China’s Economy at a Glance – May 2022
COVID lockdowns point to weaker growth and greater uncertainty in the near term.
Insight
Markets Today: One day when fears eased, for a bit
US Consumer Sentiment fell further than expected to be at its lowest level since August 2011 and with consumer confidence so low, the risk of recession is rising.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022
We now expect the global economy to grow by around 3.4% in 2022 and 2023. For Australia, we continue to be optimistic on the economy expecting above-trend growth this year and ongoing strength in the labour market.
Insight
Markets Today: A world of worry
Risk assets remained out of favour as concerns over inflation and recession risk continued to dominate.
The Forward View – Global: May 2022
Growth set to slow to below its long-run average
Insight
Markets Today: US inflation numbers hit shares, bond markets more restrained
Another volatile session in markets with an upward surprise in the April US inflation data release adding an extra layer of uncertainty
The Forward View – Australia: May 2022
Rates to rise further as strong growth continues
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: April 2022
We see retail sales continuing to grow in April, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than previous months.
Insight
AMW: Central banks are focused on inflation, at any costs?
The RBA met last week and raised rates by 25bps, lifting the cash rate target to 0.35%, and signalled further hikes over coming months
Markets Today: A momentary lapse of reason
Decline in inflation expectations drive core global bond yields lower with further fall in oil prices helping the move.
Monthly Business Survey: April 2022
Conditions rise further on Recreation & Personal Services recovery.
Insight
Markets Today: Stocks dive over fears of the perfect storm
The ongoing theme of mounting growth concerns against a backdrop of central bank tightening is continuing to drive market movements.
Markets Today: Are markets running scared?
The current debate in Markets is whether the Fed would be willing to let the economy slip into recession to tame inflation.
Markets Today: Market whiplash as sentiment takes a hit
Inflation is now forecast to peak at over 10% this year in the UK
Markets Today: Powell knocks mega-rise prospects on the head
Powell comments that 75bps isn’t something the FOMC is actively considering and that 50bps is on the table for the next couple of meetings
Markets Today: RBA loses a little patience
The RBA yesterday increased the cash rate target by 25bp to 0.35% and said it will do what is necessary to return inflation to the band
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: March 2022
In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted for a second consecutive month in March.
Insight
US Economic Update – April 2022
Even with GDP falling in Q1, the Fed is set to move faster.
Insight
China Economic Update – May 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic could accelerate China’s long term demographic pressures
Insight
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 27 April 2022
Strong CPI to bring forward first rate increase to May.
Insight
Markets Today: Breaking the Three Percent Barrier
US 10-year Treasuries have just breached the psychological 3% barrier for the first time since late November 2018 in what has been a further bear steepening of the US curve
AMW: A baker’s dozen of questions on Australian monetary policy
The RBA Board meets tomorrow in a meeting now widely expected to see the first increase in interest rates since November 2010.
The AUD in April 2022
Sentiment toward the AUD went from hero to zero in April.
Markets Today: The week central banks get serious
The NASDAQ recorded its worst monthly performance in more than a decade.
Markets Today: A fall in US GDP doesn’t signify recession, yet
A wild ride in FX markets over the past 24 hours
Markets Today: RBA will hike next week
News of Russia’s decision to cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria triggered a 30% jump in EU gas prices at the open before eventually settling 10% higher.
AMW: Expect moderate falls in house prices
In this Weekly we look at the potential impacts on theoretical borrowing capacity at different interest rates.
Markets Today: Russia turns off gas for Poland and Bulgaria
The World Bank has warned the war in Ukraine is set to cause the "largest commodity shock" since the 1970s (referencing the 1973 oil embargo).
Affordable housing insights from the UK
The rise in ESG investing can help address gaps in Australia’s affordable and specialist housing sector through innovative funding models, NAB’s experience in the UK shows.
China Economic Update – April 2022
Follow the money: The strength of China’s outward foreign investment during pandemic raises questions.
Insight
Markets Today: Front end Fed and China’s quest for the impossible
There’s been a strong risk-off sentiment to the start of the week.
Markets Today: European bond yields rise sharply
Markets are a little easier to understand today. Bond yields are back on the rise, given inflation expectations and more hawkish rhetoric from central banks.
China’s Economy at a Glance – April 2022
COVID outbreaks dampened growth in March, and cloud near-term outlook.
Insight
Reliance Rail right on track for a sustainable future with $1.8b loan
A landmark $1.8 billion green sustainability-linked loan sets ambitious targets for reducing energy and water usage for a major fleet of city trains and maintenance centre.
AMW: The labour market and the outlook for wages
Wages likely to pick up despite NAIRU uncertainty. The RBA’s latest ‘best guess’ of the NAIRU is 4%.
Markets Today: A temporary change in direction
Bond yields have fallen sharply overnight, but that doesn’t mean inflation expectations are going away, or does it?
Markets Today: Bond yields and equities both rise sharply
It’s not something that will continue for long, but US bond yields have risen sharply today, and so have equities. Which one will give in first?
Markets Today: A whiff of moderation as Fed hurtles to 50 point hike
Global yields continued their March higher over the Easter period with the US 10yr yield hitting a fresh cycle of 2.88%, its highest since 2018.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022
The global economic outlook remains clouded by numerous factors, however, we expect that the global economy will grow by 3.7% in 2022 and then slow to a trend- like 3.5% in 2023. For Australia, GDP is expected to grow by a strong 3.4% this year – supported by healthy growth in consumption and ongoing gains in business investment.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: April 2022
COVID and conflict continue to cloud near term outlook.
Insight
Markets Today: Big hikes, more inflation, but bonds settle down
Despite 50 basis point hikes by the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ over the last 24 hours, bond yields haven’t moved a great deal.
Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022
March has seen smoother retail prospects when compared to the very choppy conditions across January and February, with our forecast pointing to moderate growth in the month.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: April 2022
Rate rises set for June as strong growth continues.
Insight
Markets Today: A very slight glimmer of hope on inflation
US inflation rose as expected, but there’s still been a reaction in the bond markets.
AMW: First signs of rebalancing as inflation and yields rise in the US
Higher inflation is starting to impact buying conditions in the US. Will we see the same trend emerge in Australia?
Monthly Business Survey: March 2022
Conditions surge higher as costs, prices hit records.
Insight
Markets Today: Stocks hit as yields rise higher still
Bond yields continue to climb with risk assets now coming under pressures.
Markets Today: Rates push ever higher as food prices soar
No respite from rising Treasury yields – 10s up another 4bps to 2.70% +32bps on week further hurting tech. stocks/NASDAQ vs other indices and boosting USD DXY index to 100.
Markets Today: Consumers still spending despite all the hike talk
The reaction to the Fed minutes early yesterday morning continued to dominate markets overnight.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 7 April 2022
RBA to hike rates in June, July, August and November, followed by a more gradual path through 2023 and 2024.
Insight
‘Diversity saved my life’: Building Australia’s defence capability
Australia’s first female Deputy Chief of Army has a personal stake in building workplace diversity as she outlines her strategic insights – from geopolitics to sustainability - as special guest at the NAB Capital Markets 2022 conference.
Markets Today: Fed to slash balance sheet sooner rather than later
FOMC Minutes reveal plans for much faster and more aggressive balance sheet reduction than 2017-2019
AMW: RBA pricing seems too aggressive over the next 2 years
The RBA clearly signalled it is contemplating lifting rates over coming months, removing language about being “patient” and pivoting the RBA to once again being forward looking.
Markets Today: No patience left at RBA
RBA’s April meeting yesterday left policy on hold at 0.1% but underwent a substantial rewrite to the post meeting statement.
Markets Today: Crimes, curves and patience
Talk of Europe restricting Russian oil and gas has re-surfaced, driving oil prices higher
Markets Today: Fed ready for a big move, ECB staring inflation in the face
Eurozone inflation printed a new record high with ECB hawks calling for policy action.
The AUD in March 2022
AUD volatility picked up in March, almost all accounted for by Global factors.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 26 March 2022
Data softer than previous week, although up from early March.
Insight
Markets Today: Biden dips into reserves, Putin demands Roubles from today
The main news overnight is the US decision to release 1m barrels a day for 6 months from their strategic petroleum reserve
Markets Today: Peace hopes fade, European inflation soars
ECB Lagarde warning of supply and uncertainty shocks from the Ukraine war.
Markets Today: Europe boosted by peace hopes
Last night’s Federal Budget contained few surprises and won’t be a big influence on markets this morning.
Markets Today: The divided story of rate expectations
It has been a nervous start to the new week with big moves seen in rates, oil and FX markets.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2022
Confidence and conditions pull back but remain resilient.
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: February 2022
In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in February.
Insight
Markets Today: Ditching bonds like they are going out of fashion
Economists outdo each other for Fed hikes with Citi calling four 50 basis point hikes back to back
Markets Today: American markets doing well because they are not Europe
Investors are showing a preference for US equities with all three major indices enjoying a decent rebound after yesterday’s decline.
US Economic Update – 24 March 2022
Fed lifts rates – more to come.
Insight
Growing Australia’s emerging tech future with $2.4b milestone
Strong performance in the emerging technology sector shows how NAB is helping to create a robust industry ecosystem and deliver on what it takes to make it as a new digital business.
Markets Today: Getting ready to Ruble
Russia intends to make ‘unfriendly’ countries pay for gas in rubles.
Markets Today: Markets support the Fed’s balancing act
Yields continue to rise with US 10yr now +9.6bps to 2.39%.
State Economic Overview March 2022
COVID disruptions have continued but State economies have been resilient and labour markets are strong.
Insight
Markets Today: Powell talking faster than fast
US bond yields march higher pre and post Powell speech
Markets Today: Peace hopes and understanding
AUD/USD closed above 0.74 for the first time this year, cementing its position as the world’s strongest G10 currency year to date.
Markets Today: BoE far more cautious than the Fed
Russia makes USD bond payments, adding to a sense of hope on Russia/Ukraine
Sustainability a driving force for capital markets
It was the theme which came through strongly at every session at NAB’s Capital Markets 2022 conference, with ongoing sustainability momentum proving a game changer for issuers and investors.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 12 March 2022
Overall, 2022 continues to outperform 2021 and even pre-pandemic 2019.
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – March 2022
COVID and energy prices present sizeable risk to China’s ambitious growth target.
Insight
Markets Today: A far from transitory Fed
US Fed lifts cash rate 25bps, as expected
AMW: Inflation expectations mean CBs need to be hawkish
In this Weekly we explore how central banks might balance the two conflicting forces – inflation expectations key according to Fed speak.
Markets Today: China hit by COVID and Russian relationship
A switch of market focus from Ukraine to China (and Hong Kong)
Webinar: sustainable finance and the opportunities for financing social infrastructure
Growth in sustainable financing continues to exceed market expectation.
Webinar
Markets Today: Will China pick a side?
Yields have soared even as commodity prices have fallen.
Markets Today: Getting close to the edge
Friday was a day of contrasting fortunes for US and EU equity markets.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022
Globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a significant spike in energy prices – reflecting the importance of Russia in the production and export of oil, natural gas and coal, in combination with limited additional supply elsewhere. Locally, the war in Europe poses risks on both the activity and nominal sides of the economy, uncertainty is now highly elevated – but the central-case for Australia’s economy largely remains strong.
Insight
Markets Today: ECB taper talk, while Lavrov tells-tales
The ECB has surprised markets with an accelerated QE unwinding plan
The Forward View – Global: March 2022
Russian invasion triggers uncertainty & volatility in global markets.
Insight
Markets Today: Risk on, but so too is the war
War still rages, but Eurozone stocks and EUR roar back to life
Cashless Retail Sales Index: February 2022
2022 started slowly on account of the Omicron wave but is now really picking up, notably in areas like hospitality and clothing and footwear.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: March 2022
Unemployment to fall below 4%; inflation risks build.
Insight
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope
Markets remain volatile unable to confidently price implications from the news flow given the complex state of the global economy
Monthly Business Survey: February 2022
Activity, employment strengthen as prices push higher.
Insight
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 8 March 2022
NAB now sees the first rate hike coming in August; Gradual normalisation to follow through in 2023 and 2024.
Insight
AMW: Russia/Ukraine update: adding to existing price pressures
Brent oil is up 30% on the week to US$130 a barrel and wheat, thermal coal and gas prices have also surged.
Markets Today: Day 12 brought more volatility, the search for safety
Germany rejects proposed US, EU embargo on Russian oil imports
Markets Today: Oil keeps increasing, Aussie rises above the confusion
Risk sentiment was hammered on Friday with sharp falls in stocks and a large rally in bonds
Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices
EU considering further measures against Russia overnight which would allow them to impose tariffs and quotas to Russian exports, further disrupting global trade.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 26 February 2022
Overall, February saw strong gains for hospitality, with surging spending on bars, restaurants, pubs and accommodation, despite ongoing COVID circulation.
Insight
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q4 2021
Our Q4 survey saw commercial property market sentiment move into positive territory for the first time in 2 years, with the NAB Commercial Property Index at +3 pts.
Insight
Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting
Russia’s Ukraine invasion and sanctions continue to roil commodity markets which were already tight given the increase in demand from a reopening global economy and low inventories
NAB talk to ASFA about its 10th Biennial Super FX Survey Results
Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill and Director, Currency Overlay Solutions, Mike Symonds discuss the results of our 10th Biennial Superannuation FX Hedging survey with ASFA.
Australian Economic Update: Q4 GDP 2021
A strong rebound in activity as lockdowns end.
Insight
The AUD in February 2022
Despite being the month when Russia invaded Ukraine, the high-low range in AUD/USD was less than in January.
AMW: Ukraine/Russia, implications for economies, central banks and Australia
History suggests Russia’s actions in the Ukraine may result in only a short-lived episode of risk aversion with contemporary macro themes eventually reasserting themselves.
Markets Today: Ukraine war ratchets up risk
Risk sentiment craters (S&P500 -1.3%) as the Russia/Ukraine situation has no sign of ending
China Economic Update – March 2022
China’s outsized property sector presents a major drag for growth in 2022.
Insight
Markets Today: Moderate contagion, so far
News from Ukraine remain bleak with Russia Ukraine talks yielding no resolution while fighting rages on.
Markets Today: A swift response to the Ukrainian crisis
Markets are opening up to headlines that ‘Putin puts Russian nuclear forces on ‘special alert’.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: January 2022
NAB's Online Retail Sales Index returned to growth in January.
Insight
Australian GDP Preview: Q4 2021
Rebound sets the stage for a strong 2022.
Insight
Markets Today: Putting the Squeeze on Putin’s ‘Squalid Venture’
Biden announces range of sanctions on Russia, but not including SWIFT.
Markets Today: Don’t Panic!
Ukraine/Russia tensions continue, no further military escalation apart from cyberattacks
Markets Today: Biden’s sanctions first step against Putin’s ‘invasion’
Restrained market reactions so far (bar oil) to Russia-Ukraine developments…
AMW: Households to feel the squeeze if the RBA follows the market path
How high rates will go in this cycle is a key question that is being asked by clients.
Markets Today: Putin supports Donbass powder keg
Geopolitical tension lifted overnight with President Putin formally recognising the two Ukrainian breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and signing aid and cooperation agreements.
Markets Today: More war talk adds to a storm of uncertainty
US President Biden is convinced Russia has decided to attack Ukraine
US Economic Update – 18 February 2022
Solid start to Q1 activity data; Fed to start lifting rates in March.
Insight
Markets Today: Ball of confusion as Biden and Putin fight war of words
Yesterday’s glimpses of risk off vibes have intensified over the past 24 hours with Russia Ukraine tensions the main culprit.
Capital Markets 2022 post-conference video on-demand
On-demand video from our virtual Capital Markets 2022 conference – driving growth and economic recovery.
Sustainable Finance Update: February 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Sustainable Finance Update: February 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Sustainable Finance Update: February 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
Sustainable Finance Update: February 2022
A look at what's been happening in the sustainable finance market in Australia and abroad.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 12 February 2022
Our latest weekly data to 12 February shows a strong recovery in spending since January.
Insight
Markets Today: Oil rising whilst Putin sits tight
The standout data point overnight was US Retail Sales, which came in well above consensus expectations.
Markets Today: Risk-on as Putin backs-off (a bit)
President Putin spoke to the media saying that "of course" Russia does not want war in Europe, but then added that his security concerns must be addressed and taken seriously .
AMW: WPI Preview and what does sustainably higher inflation mean?
The Q3 result showed WPI wage increases broadly back to pre-pandemic patterns, and our forecast for Q4 sees an acceleration in private sector wages growth to 2.5% y/y.
Markets Today: Putin on the brink, Fed ‘out of sync’
The S&P is back in the red (-0.5%) following reports of satellite images being circulated purportedly showing Russian troops leaving assembly points and moving to attack positions.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022
Globally the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has spread rapidly; the sheer number of cases is disrupting economic activity as infected workers are forced to isolate. In Australia, we have revised up the expected rebound in Q4 GDP, but pulled down Q1 2022 as the spread of omicron weighs on the economy through both consumer caution as well as disruption to business.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: February 2022
Latest COVID-19 wave has led to a soft start to 2022
Insight
Markets Today: High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes?
Russia/Ukraine headlines weighed heavily on risk sentiment late Friday with the US again warning Russia could invade at any time.
Markets Today: High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes?
US inflation comes in hot again with core measures showing wides-spread inflation pressures
ESG and securitisation: NAB in conversation with the CEFC
NAB recently sat down with the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to discuss the increased focus on ESG activities for both issuers and investors in the securitisation world and what we can expect next.
Markets Today: Bond sell-off on hold ahead of US inflation numbers
Lots of central bank speak from Fed, BoC, ECB and BoE today
Equity capital markets: riding the rollercoaster
Volatility in equity capital markets has been a key feature of the past year’s activity and factors such as COVID-19, geopolitical tensions, global economic growth, interest rates and inflation will all have an impact in 2022.
Corporate origination: bonds observations and outlook
A bumper year of corporate issuance in Australia and the re-emergence of value in offshore markets leaves Australian issuers with great funding choices heading into 2022.
Cashless Retail Sales Index: January 2022
Consumers started 2022 in an understated fashion, following some big swings in late 2021.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: February 2022
Strong rebound slowed by Omicron as inflation builds.
Insight
Big year ahead for USPP
The resilience of the US private placements market was evident through 2021 and the indicators for 2022 look even better.
Taking a global view
NAB’s global debt syndicate teams share their insights on Asia, the US, Europe and the UK debt markets for the year ahead.
Bumper start for financial and high-grade origination
Business is already off and running for financial issuance as another fast-paced and active January kicked off the year.
Outlook for listed investment vehicles
Investors are seeking diversified unique investment alternatives more than ever, with further opportunities opening up this year as managers deploy a range of actions to provide value.
Supportive loans window for corporate borrowers
Following a very busy end to 2021 driven by the emergence of M&A activity, loan markets in Australia for corporate borrowers look strong moving ahead.
Evolving securitisation: what to expect in 2022
Expert views on the year ahead from NAB’s market-leading securitisation team, recognised as Australian Securitisation House of the Year for the 10th year running at the 2021 KangaNews Awards.
Making an impact with affordable housing
Everyone deserves a safe and liveable home, which is why NAB is helping create more suitable homes for Australians in need.
Markets Today: China pushes back green agenda, UK heading for recession?
The key question as yields march higher is how high can they go in this cycle?
Monthly Business Survey: January 2022
Conditions deteriorate as Omicron peaks.
Insight
AMW: What more do we now know from the RBA?
The RBA made a second major change to their forecasts for inflation and unemployment in three months
Markets Today: Markets still guessing the path of inflation
Inflation and related central bank thinking remains by far the bigger influence on market sentiment
Markets Today: US kept working through Omicron peak
US economy brushes Omicron aside with a strong January Labour market report
Markets Today: Tight squeeze or a gentle touch
European yields soar as ECB pivots more hawkish – Lagarde fails to rule out hiking in 2022
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 29 January 2022
While the past two weeks’ data is a little less encouraging than our previous release, there does not appear to be a major deterioration.
Insight
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – December 2021
Pre-Omicron economy was confident but facing constraints.
Insight
Markets Today: A tale of two central banks
Equities recovery continued overnight with both European and US markets extending recent gains.
The AUD in January 2022
It was an eventful start to the year, AUD/USD tracing out a range from a high of 0.7314 (Jan 13) to a low of 0.6965 (Jan 30)
Markets Today: Markets still at odds with RBA and ECB. Who’s right?
The US economy is travelling with some momentum along side a tight labour market and still elevated inflationary pressures
China Economic Update – February 2022
Dynamic clearing – shifting the message rather than broad policy towards COVID-19.
Insight
Markets Today: RBA to join the rate-rise race?
Bostic retracts his 50bps comment, states “is not my preferred policy action” for March
AMW: Inflation indicators run hot, central banks will tilt to being more hawkish
CPI figures last week illustrated Australia is not an island when it comes to global inflation pressures
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: December 2021
In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in December.
Insight
Markets Today: Aussie dollar loses break point
AUD below 0.70 to lowest since mid-July 2020 – month end could be a factor
Markets Today: The aftermath of the Fed
Shares attempts a recovery but US equities back in negative territory in afternoon trade
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 27 January 2022
RBA to hike in November, QE to end in February as expected.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 15 January 2022
While spending has softened, it is nowhere near as bad as some have reported and we had feared.
Insight
US Economic Update – 20 January 2022
Fed policy tightening brought forward.
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – January 2022
China enters 2022 with relatively weak momentum and considerable uncertainty.
Insight
Markets Today: Fed confirms move to post-pandemic policy
Hawkish hold by the FOMC/Powell sees yields rip higher and equities reverse earlier gains
Markets Today: Ukraine fears creates a risk off sell off
Geopolitics has had an influence on markets today, but the influence of the Fed should still not be underestimated.
AMW: What does low unemployment mean for RBA wages growth forecasts?
In this report we explore the implications of last week's labour market data on the RBA wages outlook ahead of the RBA February Board Meeting and SoMP.
Monthly Business Survey: December 2021
Omicron dampens confidence, price pressures continue.
Insight
Markets Today: Turnaround in bonds ahead of FOMC this week
Bond yields retreated at the end of last week even though the assumption remains that the Fed will signal a March hike.
AMW: RBA to end QE in February; Omicron set to peak, but adds inflation risk
RBA to end QE in February while forecasts suggest Omicron is set to peak, adding greater inflation risk.
Markets Today: Fed ready to fight inflation on two fronts
Latest flurry ahead of January 25-26 FOMC suggests March rates lift off expected.
The AUD in December 2021
AUD/USD made its low point for the year on Dec.3 at 0.6993 – the pair’s only foray below 0.7000 in 2021.
Markets Today: Looking ahead to a better 2022
US and EU equities rebound overnight with mostly positive Omicron news lifting sentiment while company specific news have also helped the cause.
Markets Today: Europe’s cold cold Christmas
Commodity market news overnight is a fresh surge in European gas prices
Markets Today: A very cautious Christmas
Expect a cautious start to the week with the Netherlands going into lockdown on Sunday
NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021
For Australia the Q3 national accounts showed a smaller hit to activity than we had expected but we continue to see a very strong snap back in activity in Q4. Globally, advanced economy growth was robust in Q3, and a similar outcome is expected in Q4 albeit with a shift in the source of growth away from Europe towards the US and Japan.
Insight
Markets Today: BoE lifts rates despite everything
Against the consensus view for an unchanged outcome, the BoE unexpectedly also raised rates by 15bps to 0.25%.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 11 December 2021
Our latest data for the fortnight to 11 November shows retail pulling back somewhat, following what looks to be a Black Friday - Cyber Monday surge two weeks ago.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: December 2021
Global recovery continues but inflation is high and Omicron a concern.
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – December 2021
November data show little underlying improvement from October’s weakness.
Insight
Markets Today: Fed’s turbo taper and dots surprise
The FOMC delivered a hawkish tilt for Christmas with the Fed dot plot showing three rate hikes in 2022 while also accelerating the taper profile.
The Forward View – Australia: December 2021
Activity snaps back in Q4, pre-Delta GDP within reach
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2021
Consumers continue to power ahead across the country, with post-lockdown spending gains consolidated in our November data.
Insight
Markets Today: It’s all about dots and jabs
US PPI beat expectations fuelling hawkish FOMC expectations
Sustainable Finance Update: December 2021
A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market – in Australia and abroad.
Monthly Business Survey: November 2021
Conditions stabilise as reopening progresses
Insight
AMW: Five themes for 2022 in charts that we should closely monitor
2022 is set to become a year of central banks removing monetary accommodation.
Markets Today: A little more caution on a lot less news
Slight risk aversion to start the week with equities down, yields down and US dollar up
Markets Today: UK empties the glass, but markets still half full
Limited market reactions to ‘as expected’ US CPI – 6.8% headline highest since June 1982
Markets Today: Transmission and inflation – the two concerns
Risk tone deteriorates in front of US CPI tonight, lack of positive new news on Omicron
US Economic Update – 9 December 2021
Q4 GDP looking strong; Fed turning more hawkish
Insight
Markets Today: Banks to sit on their hands, UK to cover their faces
After a solid run in the previous two days, equities are taking a breather with European shares closing lower amid concerns over the need for a new round of covid restrictions.
Universities prepare with distinction in testing times
Strong management and a robust institutional framework are driving an optimistic outlook in the higher education sector for when international students return to campus life.
Markets Today: Omicron’s not so bad, markets hope
Markets continue to travel with optimism that Omicron will not have the severity of prior variants in terms of health outcomes, even if it is more transmissible.
AMW: Why don’t markets believe the RBA?
Markets might be right on the interest rate outlook.
Markets Today: China and Omicron hopes drive a bounce back
Positive Omicron reports coming from South Africa alongside an encouraging preliminary assessment from Dr Fauci over the weekend boosted sentiment with overnight news of policy easing in China, an additional bonus.
Markets today: Too tight too quickly?
As we start a new week, Omicron headlines were positive on Saturday which may add to some stabilisation in risk sentiment.
Growing importance of FX management to super funds
NAB's 2021 biennial Super Fund FX Survey highlighted that on average, close to 47% of funds’ assets are allocated offshore.
Markets Today: There’s a certain uncertainty
Risk sentiment recovered overnight with virus/vaccine news flow being net positive
China Economic Update – December 2021
Spreading the wealth: Common Prosperity may start to address inequality in China.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 27 November 2021
Our latest data shows consumers continuing to power ahead across Australia.
Insight
Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
The US CDC has just identified the first case of Omicron in the United States – joining the UK, Switzerland and Brazil overnight – at a time when US infection rates of the delta variant had already started creeping back up.
Australian Economic Update: Q3 GDP 2021
GDP Q3 2021 – A short and sharp fall, now firmly in the rear view mirror.
Insight
The AUD in November 2021
The overwhelming negative influence late in the month was the emergence of the Omicron covid-19 variant and doubts over the efficacy of existing vaccines against this strain and all that might imply for the global economic re-opening process.
AMW: How high could inflation go? Quantifying goods upside risks for Q4 and Q1
NAB expects that the RBA will raise rates from mid-2023 with a relatively aggressive series of hikes thereafter.
Markets Today: Who are you and what have you done with Jerome Powell?
It has been a volatile session overnight driven by differing headlines around vaccine efficacy, capped off by very significant hawkish tilt by US Fed Chair Powell in Senate Testimony.
Building business confidence in 2022
NAB senior leaders discuss the economy and the opportunities for business in 2022.
Podcast
Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
Global markets have seen a modest retracement of many of last Friday’s violent ‘risk-off’ moves, with equities higher in Europe, so too US government yields up, as too is oil, but in all cases to nowhere near Friday’s closing levels.
ESG and stewardship: Steering the transition
New NAB research shows how asset managers are working towards a more sustainable future through their investing activities and how companies can best embrace the change.
COP26 unpacked: Next steps for the transition
Global experts give their insights into the recent Glasgow summit in a special roundtable discussion presented by NAB Corporate & Institutional Banking.
Markets Today: Did the markets overreact to Omicron news?
Omicron uncertainty triggers a rethink on the global economic outlook
Australian GDP Preview: Q3 2021
Large fall sets up “W-shaped” recovery.
Insight
Markets Today: Talking turkey on central bank thinking
BoE’s Bailey still guiding that rates will need to be higher ahead of the Dec MPC meet.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: October 2021
NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in October, following on from lockdown enhanced strong growth in recent months.
Insight
Markets Today: Is the US getting too hot to handle?
Dovish Fed Official (Daly) flips to looking at accelerating tapering and to hikes in 2022
Changing mindset for digital risks – NAB cyber security roundtable
The breathtaking pace of cyber attacks in a constantly evolving threat landscape needs an even faster shift in thinking for today’s business leaders.
Markets Today: Happy tales from Euroland
Eurozone PMIs spring upside surprise, supporting EUR and holding USD in check
US Economic Update – 23 November 2021
Fed Monetary Policy Update.
Insight
Place matters: ESG and communities
As part of NAB’s Bank for Transition interview series we speak to Associate Professor Rae Dufty-Jones and Dr Neil Perry from Western Sydney University on the future of building sustainable communities and how government is listening.
AMW: Austria’s lockdown – should we worry?
Austria has re-imposed lockdown restrictions with a sharp rise in hospitalisations being driven by both the unvaccinated and older fully vaccinated people.
Markets Today: US dollar rises as Powell stays put
Ahead of a speech by President Biden later today on the economy and inflation, we got news that Jay Powell is to be re-appointed to a second term as Fed chair.
Markets Today: A speedy taper and European tantrums
Rising COVID infections around Europe and news that Austria will go into lockdown rattled markets on Friday with 10y Bunds leading a decline in core global bond yields.
Markets Today: US continues a slow recovery, Europe’s mounting issues
Fed speak was not market moving, but it is worth noting it is mostly turning slightly hawkish.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 13 November 2021
Consumer spending continues to trend higher in NSW, Victoria and the ACT well after lockdowns ease.
Insight
Markets Today: Caution after UK inflation surprise. Will Aussie wages ratchet up?
Some in the market were positioned for an upside surprise in Australian wages data, but that wasn’t forthcoming, with the data bang in line with expectations at 2.2% y/y, back to pre-pandemic levels.
Markets Today: Tills ring in the USA, jobs bounce back in the UK
Trio of strong data with US Retail, US Industrial Production, and UK Jobs all beating
NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey 2021: summary
Our 10th biennial survey – the only survey of its kind to examine hedging techniques of Australian Super Funds – captures their shifting priorities in this rapidly changing landscape.
AMW: Wages growth back to pre-pandemic, RBA’s reaction function not clear
The RBA’s wish of achieving wages growth at 3% plus is well known, however the reaction function is not as clear
Markets Today: Europe’s caution, China’s hope
Data, supply and hawkish CB talk push core yields higher
China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2021
Partials point to a weak start to Q4, with production and retail soft and investment contracting.
Insight
COP26 week two: It’s a wrap
After the fanfare of the opening statements and commitments, the second week at Glasgow meant bridging divides to reach a consensus deal in extra time as the Paris 2015 ambitions start to take flight.
Markets Today: US facing higher prices, more quits, falling sentiment
US stocks had a positive day on Friday, so further recouping some of last Tuesday and Wednesday’s pre and post CPI weakness
NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021
We have trimmed our global economic forecasts this month to 5.7% for 2021, however should this occur, it would still be the strongest rate of growth since 1973. For Australia, our internal data and NAB Monthly Business Survey indicate the economy is again rebounding strongly as NSW and Vic reopen following the extended lockdowns through mid-2021.
Insight
Markets Today: Have a little faith
The US has been out for Veterans Day, though stock markets have been open and have recouped a little of their pre and post US CPI losses
The Forward View – Global: November 2021
Supply side continues to constrain activity, driving inflation higher.
Insight
Markets Today: Eye-popping inflation doesn’t faze the Fed
US CPI jumped in October with annual readings printing at new multi-decade highs, the broad base acceleration in prices challenges the transitory narrative and increases the pressure on a patient Fed.
Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021
Retail conditions in lockdown-affected areas have clearly been challenging for many businesses, but with reopening here, consumers are bouncing back and spending has returned.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: November 2021
Rates lift-off brought forward as rebound begins.
Insight
China Economic Update – November 2021
To the market: China’s power crunch is forcing much needed energy reform.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets out of steam on inflation day
Risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse with the first S&P down day in nine.
Monthly Business Survey: October 2021
Conditions and confidence rise out of lockdown.
Insight
AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings
In this Weekly we look at Australia’s latest monthly deficit figures ahead of MYEFO in December, which show the deficit is set to come in much better than expected even with Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra having been in lockdown
Markets Today: Taking a breather
US equities close slightly higher while Europe starts the new week on the back foot.
Markets Today: Bond markets wrapped up in a ball of confusion
There was a mixed market reaction to the better than expected US Payrolls print on Friday with equities up, yields down and the USD lower.
Rethink, Reset 2021: The Road to Net Zero
An insight into what the road to carbon neutrality really looks like
COP26 week one: key takeaways
While the world’s press and pundits assess the ongoing talks in Glasgow, we look at what’s happened so far and what to expect during this crucial time for climate action.
Markets Today: Bank of England Backs Down
The BoE shocked markets overnight with its thunderous silence.
ESG and equity: positioning for success
A new NAB report offers insights into how asset managers are incorporating sustainability metrics into their investing activities and what companies can do to develop best-in-class strategies.
Markets Today: Tighter but taking time
No surprises from the FOMC in its formal policy pronouncement, the Fed announcing a November start to the QE tapering process at the as-expected pace of $15bn per month.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2021
The Q3 NAB Commercial Property Survey shows sentiment has declined, reflecting a fall in business confidence and conditions following the extended lockdowns in VIC and NSW.
Insight
Markets Today: Central banks still grappling with what to do about inflation
Global yields fall at the short end in the wake of the RBA’s dovishness yesterday.
Markets Today: RBA more uncertain than the cup winner
Stock mostly firmer at start of new month, Europe faring better than US where S&P 500 ends +0.2%
AMW: Inflation print was real, RBA will need to revise up its track
NAB recently brought forward its view of the first cash rate hike to mid-2023 with a relatively aggressive series of hikes thereafter to bring the cash rate to 1.75-2.00% by end 2024.
The AUD in October 2021
The RBA’s failure to buy the bond in the days following the Q3 CPI report convinced the market the YCC target at least in current form, was set to be formally abandoned out of the 2 November Board meeting.
Markets Today: Going bond crazy
US equities have remained resilient and oblivious to the volatility seen in rates markets amid increasing concerns over higher inflation and the prospect of Fed funds rate hikes coming sooner than expected.
US Economic Update – 29 October 2021
Growth slows in Q3 but inflation still elevated.
Insight
NAB Monetary Policy Update – 29 October 2021
NAB brings forward rate rise timing to mid-2023; YCC to end in November given the RBA's lack of commitment; QE to end in February.
Insight
Markets Today: Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’ll pass says ECB, again
US equity continue to march to their own beat, oblivious to softer data releases and volatility in rates markets driven by Central Bank policy uncertainty.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: September 2021
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index continues to exhibit considerable strength.
Insight
Markets Today: Going bond crazy
A volatile night for rates markets with short-end rates shooting up driven by hawkish signals from yesterday’s Aussie Q3 CPI and Bank of Canada meeting, but longer-end rates tumbling after the UK budget showed a sharply lower debt profile.
27 October 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high
US and European equities have ended the day in positive territory, supported by solid earnings reports and better than expected US data releases.
AMW: RBA’s inflation tolerance, is it different to the US Fed, BoE or RBNZ?
The RBA is likely to lag the US, UK and NZ in rates normalisation coming out of the pandemic.
Markets Today: Banks ready to tighten, Biden ready to spend
Inflation fears continued to build amid the backdrop of a strong Q3 earnings season which is showing firms have some pricing power to pass on higher transitory inflation
NAB Monetary Policy Update – October 2021
NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call and expects economic activity to rebound strongly as restrictions are eased.
Insight
Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal
Friday’s main economic events, namely the ‘flash’ PMIs, tell us that there is little reason to fear stagnation, for the time being at least, given still elevated levels for all readings across Europe and the US.
Markets Today: Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high
The biggest moves across Global Markets have been seen in the US rates market, where break-even inflation rates have jumped by a full 10 basis points at both 5 and 10 years.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – September 2021
Conditions and confidence hit by lockdowns in Q3.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 16 October 2021
The first full week of Sydney reopening and NSW jumped (up around 15% in the week – reflecting hospitality and personal services (e.g. hairdressers) reopening, but other states showed weakness.
Insight
Markets Today: The inflation debate heats up
The S&P 500 has extended its winning streak to a sixth day with mixed earnings and a subdued Fed Beige report not enough to derail the positive vibes
ESG and capital report: equity
Companies with strong ESG characteristics are experiencing increased availability of equity and a reduced cost of equity.
Markets Today: Earnings anything but a damp squid
If the market is rethinking how soon the Fed might lift rates, there was nothing from incoming Fed speakers overnight to support this view.
AMW: Factors influencing Australian inflation
In this Weekly, we look at some of the key risks around the Australian inflation outlook in the context of measured inflation turning higher globally.
Markets Today: Inflation and slowdowns. Isn’t there a word for that?
Although the US is less exposed to the energy crunch, supply bottle necks are still affecting its economy, particularly in sectors there is a shortage of workers, raw materials, and chips.
China’s Economy at a Glance – October 2021
A series of crises stalled Q3 growth and present downside risk to the outlook.
Insight
Markets Today: Shares rising despite everything.
Inflation fears are clearly lifting, with the latest driven by the rise in energy prices.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021
We have revised our global economic forecasts lower – to 5.9% for 2021. For Australia, a very sharp fall in activity in Q3 is locked in however we continue to expect a solid rebound in Q4 , and strong growth continuing into early 2022.
Insight
Markets Today: Have inflation concerns peaked?
The sun has been shining on risk sentiment, commodity prices and commodity currencies overnight
The Forward View – Global: October 2021
Energy woes add to persistent supply bottlenecks in slowing global recovery.
Insight
Markets Today: Wages, fuel, supply chains and a not-so-transitory inflation number
With markets having aggressively pushed Fed pricing into 2022, it is likely there is some thought that such a tightening will weigh on demand earlier.
Cashless Retail Sales Index: September 2021
Reopening in NSW, soon to be followed by the ACT and Victoria, should give retail spending a good kick along in October and November.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: October 2021
Waiting for the rebound after Q3 lockdowns.
Insight
Markets Today: IMF warning central banks to act quickly on inflation
The ‘Quit Rate’ is the highest on record, reflective of the ease which workers are switching jobs, in part at least for better pay or conditions elsewhere.
Monthly Business Survey: September 2021
Confidence rebounds on the back of roadmaps, vaccination.
Insight
AMW: How should central banks respond to transitory inflation?
We are unlikely to get a true read of the underlying pace of inflation until mid-2022, with both transitory and policy driven impacts continuing to play out.
Markets Today: Energy prices rise further, central banks more hawkish
The rise in energy prices is fuelling concerns that the transitory lift in inflation seen in the wake of the pandemic may prove to be longer lasting.
Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention
US September payrolls were a big miss, but strong revisions to prior months alongside a decline in the unemployment rate and lift in hourly earnings resulted in a relative subdued reaction by markets, suggesting the figures were strong enough to keep the Fed on track to begin its QE tapering programme in November.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 2 October 2021
Encouraging news on the data front this week.
Insight
Markets Today: Everyone seems happy to kick the can
Risk asset have enjoyed a solid rebound overnight following news that the US Senate had reached an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early December.
AMW: How quickly will activity rebound?
High vaccination rates should give consumers confidence to resume economic activity as restrictions ease.
Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?
Words from politicians of various stripes have gone a little way to alleviating two of the major concerns currently plaguing global markets, namely the ongoing energy crisis centred on Europe and the looming deadline for lifting or scrapping the US debt ceiling
NAB Corporate Cash Index: Q2 2021
The NAB Corporate Cash Index draws on our own Corporate and Institutional Banking client insight analytics to reveal cash management trends.
Markets Today: Risk on, with inflation? RBNZ ready to lift rates
European and US equities rebounded overnight with a stronger than expected US Services ISM supporting the view that it’s all good, notwithstanding the ongoing rise in energy prices and supply bottlenecks.
Markets Today: Stagflation consternation as OPEC sticks to the plan
NSW meeting the 70% full vaccination target may be announced as early today (more likely tomorrow) in which case it may well attract more local media headlines than the RBA meeting.
US Economic Update – October 2021
The Fed is set to taper – but rate hikes are still a way off
Insight
Markets Today: Hospital
US equities finish last week strongly with positive trial results from Merck's Covid treatment drug helping sentiment.
The AUD in September 2021
Forces acting on the AUD (and other commodity linked currencies) independent of USD strength in September were largely China related.
China Economic Update – October 2021
Debt bomb – managing the fallout from Evergrande will be a key challenge for Chinese authorities.
Insight
Markets Today: China secures fuel at all costs
US equity losses accelerate into Thursday’s close; worse month for S&P500 since March 2020
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: August 2021
NAB Online Retail Sales Index continued to grow in August, driven by department store sales and three key sales states, NSW, VIC, and QLD.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets calmer, but US budget deadline looms
Equities made an unconvincing “buy the dip” bounce as yields consolidated their recent moves.
Markets Today: Dangerous Powell, markets run for cover
Fed talk overnight tilted hawkish with the Fed’s Bullard advocating for two hikes in 2022 and also flagging the case for balance sheet unwind after tapering ends.
AMW: Population growth slows in the pandemic; implications for real rates
For Australia, population growth should begin to recover when international borders are re-opened (latest guidance is from mid 2022).
Markets Today: Is reflation back? Commodities push even higher
10yr Treasuries spend time above 1.50%. Neither equities nor USD seem to care….
Markets Today: Add the US debt ceiling to the list of concerns
Week ends quietly after Evergrande/FOMC related volatility earlier in the week
Markets Today: Optimism. But why?
BoE meeting more hawkish than expected, seen opening door to hikes by year’s end.
Markets Today: Not yet, but soon says the Fed
Fed tees up November taper announcement, subject to reasonably good Sep. employment report
Markets Today: Waiting on Evergrande, the Fed & oil inventories
US equities fail to bounce after Monday, with the S&P500 down -0.1 ahead of the FOMC.
AMW: RBA review?
In this weekly we look at the recent reviews done at the Fed and the RBNZ to glean what a review into the RBA may recommend.
Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears
A torrid day for Hong Kong’s hang Seng index yesterday, driven by sharp fall in property sector stocks and led by a 16% fall in Evergrande ahead of Thursday’s bond coupon payment day, spilled over to the global arena on Monday with equities down sharply, bond yields lower and safe haven currencies in the ascendancy.
Markets Today: Just another cautious Monday
Caution is in the air ahead of the FOMC this week where market moves on Friday tiled towards a mildly hawkish outcome.
Commercial property and your SMSF: Risk vs reward
Keen to invest in commercial property through your self-managed super fund? Make sure you do it wisely and well.
Article
ESG and capital roundtable discussion
Responding to changing asset manager behaviours and expectations.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021
COVID 19 remains the main risk to the global economic outlook, while in Australia the key risks to our forecasts remain the timing and pace of the easing in restrictions, and further out, the underlying pace of growth as the impact of policy measures fades.
Insight
Markets Today: Lots of movement, not much direction
There have been quite a lot of moving parts to the price action overnight.
The Forward View – Global: September 2021
Strong economic growth in Q2 is set to falter in Q3.
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – September 2021
COVID restrictions hit retail in August, building on existing imbalances in China’s economy.
Insight
Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?
The lift in equities appears to be a case of ‘buy the dip’ with an absence of any positive news flow apart from the very second-tier Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey which surprised sharply to the upside.
The Forward View – Australia: September 2021
A near term hit to GDP before the recovery continues.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: August 2021
Our data mapping points to another retail sales fall in August.
Insight
Markets Today: Has US inflation peaked?
The market was looking for an ease in US CPI readings and in the end the figures delivered a bit more than expected
Monthly Business Survey: August 2021
Confidence and conditions tick up.
Insight
AMW: What else happened at Jackson Hole?
At the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference, markets understandably reacted to US Fed Chair Powell’s speech which effectively significantly divorced tapering from rate hikes.
Markets Today: Oil higher and RBA’s Lowe-down
It has been a slow start to the week with little in the way of market moves outside of commodities. Markets overall appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of US CPI figures tonight and the FOMC next week . The S&P500 swung between small gains and losses to finish up 0.2% after five consecutive days of losses, helped along by energy stocks.
Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious
After a positive APAC lead, equities came under pressure again on Friday night following news the Biden administration was considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the US economy
Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering
As expected, the ECB will moderate its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond buying pace in Q4 with its December meeting now a key event. China makes historic sale of oil reserves weighing on oil prices.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 4 September 2021
This week's consumption data results give us some cautious optimism for Q4.
Insight
Markets Today: Bank of Canada on pause, ECB unlikely to do the same
US equity markets slip for second day, bigger falls in Europe amid more cautious mood. NY Fed’s Williams re-enforces markets views post-Jackson Hole, August payrolls.
Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
US investors have returned from the long weekend in a cautious mood. US and EU equities are broadly weaker with big tech outperforming, helping the NASDAQ stay on the green. Core yields are also higher with supply and ECB meeting on Thursday factors at play.
AMW: What happens to consumption as we learn to live with the virus?
Household consumption is almost back to pre-pandemic levels in Australia with Q2 GDP figures showing consumption is now just 0.3% below pre-pandemic December 2019 levels.
Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks
US markets being out for the Labor Day holiday hasn’t prevented global equity markets forging ahead. The US dollar has recouped a little of its (further) losses seen post last Friday’s US payrolls report and since AUD and NZD have been the two biggest beneficiaries of USD slippage of late, no great surprise they have lost a little more than most other currencies overnight.
Markets Today: Far from substantial progress, but just a temporary setback?
US payrolls came in softer than the consensus (235k vs. 733k expected), but a soft print was widely expected given the weakness seen in high frequency indicators such as HomeBase. The surprise for markets was more on Average Hourly Earnings which were stronger than expected
NAB Renewables Survey: August 2021
NAB’s second Renewables Survey shows the transition to renewable energy by Australian businesses remains slow but there's a growing recognition of the social and reputational benefits.
Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement: NAB-Austrade webinar highlights
We look at how the proposed Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement could mean new import and export opportunities. Watch now.
Webinar
Markets Today: Only currencies making moves ahead of US jobs numbers
In what have been predictably quiet bond and equity markets ahead of US payrolls tonight, currencies are continuing to enjoy their week in the sun.
The AUD in August 2021
Almost, but not quite, a round-trip for AUD/USD in August.
Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
Ahead of US payrolls on Friday the decline in ADP private payrolls report overshadowed a better than expected ISM manufacturing print. The ADP miss points to downside risk to payrolls on Friday (the bad news), implying a likely delay to the Fed’s tapering decision (the good news).
Australian Economic Update: Q2 GDP 2021
GDP surprises, rising 0.7% q/q.
Markets Today: Falling production, higher prices turns sentiment around
Month end flows interrupt week-long USD depreciation trend but AUD and NZD have done enough work to suggest a base is now in after failing to take a hit from weak China PMI data.
AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased
In this Weekly we argue why we think activity should again rebound sharply once lockdown restrictions are eased. Key to how sharply activity can rebound is will people feel confident to resume activity and have household and business balance sheets been sufficiently insulated from recent outbreaks?
Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls
A quiet night with markets continuing to bask in the glow of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The explicit de linking of tapering to rate rises has allowed equity markets to rally, while yields have moved lower. The S&P500 rose 0.4% overnight and is up 1.3% since Jackson Hole on Friday.
Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2021
A soft outcome ahead of a Q3 fall.
Insight
Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence
The lack of a starting QE gun alongside a strong message that there is a stricter test for rate hikes compare to QE tapering resulted in a risk positive reaction to the much-awaited Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A QE tapering decision remains live, although now November looks more likely than September.
NAB Consumer Insight Report – Online Virtual vs. In store In Person
Covid-19 has accelerated digital transformation & consumer preferences. The lines between physical and digital are dissolving.
Insight
ESG investing: what does it take to do it well?
The pandemic has added to the sense of urgency around sustainability challenges the world faces. More than ever, investors are interested in ESG. But what tools are required to do it well?
Article
Markets Today: Kabul blasts hit sentiment, markets hold for Powell’s taper talk
Cautiousness has crept back into markets on the eve of Jackson Hole. Twin suicide attacks outside of Kabul airport has seen 12 US service members killed along with at least 60 Afghans. Coming up today, Fed Chair Powell gives his key mark address at Jackson Hole.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: July 2021
Lockdown passion projects spur online sales.
Insight
Markets Today: High hopes keep getting higher
In a low trading environment, equities have edged higher again with procyclical sectors leading the way. The bond market continues to catch up to the positive vibes evident in other markets with core yields higher across the board.
Farming looks to a carbon cash future
Along with its many challenges, climate change is set to deliver forward-thinking farmers a huge opportunity.
Article
Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar
Another day of equity gains and commodities prices. Markets are still basking in the glow of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine having received regulatory approval on Monday. China’s delta outbreak also appears to be under control with two consecutive days of no new domestic cases.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – August 2021
While Sydney and Melbourne remain a key risk to the outlook, NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news
Risk assets have enjoyed a positive start to the new week with European and US equities extending Friday’s rebound. After a positive lead from Asia, European and US equities closed the Monday session with gains across the board, extending Friday’s rebound.
AMW: Australia’s path to reopening in international context
The NSW and Victorian outbreaks remain stubbornly high in the face of strict lockdown measures, renewing focus on vaccinations as the path forward. The vaccination rollout is finding its gear, led by a sharp acceleration in NSW, putting the rollout on track to meet reopening thresholds by November.
Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
Mid-morning in Friday’s US trading day, Bob Kaplan said he may rethink his call for the Fed to quickly start to taper its $120 billion per month in bond purchases if it looks like the spread of the coronavirus delta variant is slowing economic growth. This didn’t have a big impact on bonds, but we can date the start of the run-up in US equity indices and a pull back in the USD to his comments hitting the screens, testament to the ongoing sensitivity the currency and risk markets are exhibiting to the question of when QE tapering starts.
Markets Today: Commodities fall, VIX jumps, Aussie hit hard as growth concerns rise
US equities recover into the close calming market sentiment. Spike in VIX and rotation into defensive/tech stock point to a cautionary tale. European equities cannot escape the negative vibes from Asia
Markets Today: Central banks holding back
Following a fair amount of volatility in the immediate wake of the FOMC Minutes US equities are lower, bond yields and the USD are lower, the latter allowing the AUD some relief after posting a new year-to-date low of 0.7229 in the run up to the Minutes, but the gains are already proving hard to hold.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2021
Q2 NAB Commercial Property Survey shows confidence edged higher, but recovery will remain slow.
Markets Today: Will RBNZ still hike rates today, even in a lockdown?
The negative vibes from our APAC session extended overnight with softer than expected US data releases not helping the cause. US retail sales were broadly softer, and the NAHB housing market index also came in weaker than expected.
AMW: Acute lockdown impacts being seen in the labour market
Lockdowns in Australia are likely to have a very acute impact on the economy, much more than what the RBA had pencilled in only a week ago. While NAB still expects a sharp rebound in activity when restrictions ease, the near-term impact is likely to be larger with lockdowns extending beyond Sydney (e.g. NSW, Melbourne and ACT).
Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
The much weaker than expected China data, lack of encouraging covid news over the weekend – no more so than in Australia – and the news out of Afghanistan which adds another dimension to ever-present geopolitical concerns (in this case, international terrorism) perennially cited as a risk to positive market sentiment – haven’t prevented the S&P 500 closing at a new record high.
China’s economy at a glance – August 2021
China’s Delta outbreak likely to slow growth in the near term
Insight
Sustainable Finance Update: August 2021
A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market – in Australia and abroad.
Markets Today: Back to uncertainty
US consumer sentiment plunges to below pre-pandemic levels with yields tumbling (US 10yr -8.2bps), but equities steady to higher with the S&P500 +0.2% to a new record high. For bonds, the plunge in consumer sentiment is an amber signal for the near-term, which if realised in real activity may impact on the timing and form of tapering and puts the focus squarely on retail sales on Tuesday
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021
Due to lockdowns, we expect to see a large hit to activity in Australia in Q3. Our global growth forecast for 2021 is marginally weaker this month, 6.2% compared with 6.3% previously.
Insight
Markets Today: On the road to nowhere
Quiet night but S&P 500 ekes out a third successive record daily close. Stronger than expected US PPI a reminder that supply chain disruptions are still with us.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 7 August 2021
Consumption is now down around 3%, compared to the start of 2021.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: August 2021
Differing vaccination rates are driving a divide between economic groups.
Insight
Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it
US inflation moderates, taking the pressure down a notch and playing into the Fed’s transitory narrative. It’s no surprise to see yields and the USD lower in the wake. The US 10yr fell 1.5bps to 1.33%, though CPI was the catalyst for a larger fall after it reached an intra-day high of 1.3743%.
The Forward View – Australia: August 2021
GDP to fall but recovery will resume as lockdowns end.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2021
NABs data mapping points to retail sales falling substantially in July.
Insight
Markets Today: Will US CPI give markets the direction they are looking for?
US Senate passes $550bn Infrastructure bill as expected but still a road ahead for passage by House. No positive covid developments overnight, but markets behaving as though there were. New record high for Eurostoxx 50, S&P500 closes flat, NASDAQ pressured by higher bond yields.
Monthly Business Survey: July 2021
Confidence and conditions fall further with ongoing lockdowns.
Insight
Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed
Markets opened with a cautious mood to start the week , reflecting on both the stellar US payrolls report on Friday and the surge in the delta variant which has seen China tighten restrictions and Israel contemplate another lockdown. The Fed’s Bostic was the first voter to speak post payrolls, indicating that the Fed should taper after one or two more payroll prints.
AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again
Strong US Payrolls print, cementing expectations of a taper announcement at an upcoming FOMC meeting (September, November or December). As tapering becomes more certain, market focus will quickly change to the likely rate hike profile. Recent speeches by Fed Vice-Chair Clarida and Governor Brainard hint how this will evolve.
Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’
Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.
Markets Today: Watch Germany go
The S&P500 (+0.6%) hit another record high ahead of US Payrolls later tonight. Payrolls of course key to the Fed’s decision on the timing and pace of tapering (see Coming Up for details). Market moves elsewhere were more limited
Markets Today: Jobs boost for NZ, whilst US jobs fail to pick up
Mixed US data and hawkish take on Fed Clarida shake markets. ADP is a big miss, US ISM a big hit.
Markets Today: A tale of two central banks, both focused on a strong recovery
The antipodean central banks are taking an optimistic view of the recovery with the RBA pushing ahead with its tapering of asset purchases (despite the protracted Sydney lockdown) and the RBNZ has as good as said the central bank will lift rates in August.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: June 2021
NAB Online Retail Sales Index accelerated in June, following the May rebound.
Insight
Markets Today: More caution on manufacturing undershoot
US equity markets have begun the new week in a tentative manner with a nervous feeling in the air. A slightly softer, but still elevated ISM print added fuel to peak growth concerns and the UST curve bull flattened.
The AUD in July 2021
The AUD failed to benefit from the generally weaker USD, in contrast to all other major currencies which rose during the last week of July. From mid-month, a very sharp fall-back in iron ore prices, albeit a commodity with a very fickle and sometimes non-existent short term relationship with the AUD, drew attention
China Economic Update – August 2021
Approaching the peak: China’s long-term coal consumption looks set to decline.
Insight
Markets Today: Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?
Lots of economic data to digest on Friday but none of which had a major impact on markets, while Saturday’s China official PMI data showing a further (and bigger than expected) fall in its Manufacturing Index threatens to play with the grain of recent AUD underperformance.
US Economic Update – July 2021
Q2 GDP growth below expectations but still strong.
Insight
Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks
US Q2 GDP was the data release to watch overnight and while the print missed expectations, a healthier US consumer that seemingly can’t get enough was the bright spot and carried the day.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 24 July 2021
Consumption is down almost 7% compared to the start of 2021.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’
A couple of comments from the Fed chair during the post-FOMC meeting Statement have been responsible for most of the market price action, notably, Powell’s remarks “we’re some ways away from substantial progress on jobs” and that “the Fed is nowhere near considering raising rates”.
NAB Health Australian Wellbeing Report: Q2 2021 (Part 1: Emotional Wellbeing)
Wellbeing up & now at its highest level since 2019. Resilience is building, but wellbeing is falling for the unemployed & low income earners. NSW lockdown a key risk.
Insight
Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors
For the first time, we are now seeing contagion from the sell-off in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese shares, to global markets – the NASDAQ in particular, ending the day down 1.2% in front of the earnings results from Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.
Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
After an initial hint of contagion, European and US equities looked past Asian concerns over China’s regulatory crackdown, closing the day with modest gains at or near record highs. Meanwhile the real story in the rates markets has been the record move decline in the 10y US real rate.
AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic
The Sydney lockdown is in its fifth week and looks set to be extended well beyond July 30. Given the high transmission rates of the delta variant, snap lockdowns are likely to remain a ‘tool of first resort’ in controlling the virus until vaccination rates lift.
Markets Today: High hopes, big concerns and fewer babies
Strong earnings continue to outweigh Delta concerns with the S&P500 reaching a new record high, So far 87% of companies reporting have beaten expectations and if maintained would be the strongest earnings beat since 2008.
Markets Today: Strong earnings, cautious ECB and NZ’s first day without QE
Monday’s delta blues are once again talking back-seat in driving markets, the winning streak in the major US stock indices extending to a third day as incoming quarterly earnings reports for the most part continue to beat expectations, the S&P500 closing within 0.4% of last Mondays record high.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – June 2021
Conditions at a record high in Q2.
Insight
Markets Today: Risk back on with rebound expectations
Strong earnings have swept away Delta concerns in the US with 85% of companies reporting so far beating expectations.
Markets Today: Markets recover, but why?
The Delta variant continues to spread, vaccination rates have slowed, and case numbers are rising.
Markets Today: Markets Hit by the Delta Blues
Markets have dipped sharply on the back of rising COVID cases.
AMW: Lockdowns to weigh heavily on Q3 but there’s a light with vaccines
The Sydney lockdown is now in its fourth week with restrictions tightened further on the weekend. In this Weekly we update our estimates of the impact of these recent lockdowns.
Markets Today: OPEC drip feeds more oil
The Aussie dollar is under pressure because of global market uncertainty over COVID says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s podcast.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021
COVID-19 remains the most significant risk for our global outlook. While in Australia, the current virus outbreak in NSW and associated lockdowns/border closures highlights the uncertainty around economic forecasting at present.
Insight
China’s Economy at a Glance – July 2021
China’s economy grew largely as expected in Q2, but imbalance between production and consumption persists.
Insight
Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason
There’s more caution in the markets today, even though numbers out of Australia, the US and China were better than expected. There’s a bit of battle fatigue hitting the market says NAB’s David de Garis.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 10 July 2021
Compared to the start of 2021, consumption is now down around 0.7%.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: July 2021
Advanced economies open up again; can vaccines ensure it’s for the last time?
Insight
Markets Today: More inflation, RBNZ moves first
More inflation signals with the RBNZ moving towards rate rises. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there are no signs that other central banks will be following in a hurry.
Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2021
Recent lockdowns look to have dented retail spending in areas hard-hit in 2020, notably hospitality and clothing and footwear.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: July 2021
Lockdown disruptions but expect recovery to continue.
Insight
NAB Monetary Policy Update – July 2021
Re-Affirming our rate view and an update on the outlook for QE.
Insight
Markets Today: Another US inflation surprise. Still transitory?
US inflation has surprised again, up even higher than last month. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the indications are that it’s still transitory.
China Economic Update – July 2021
One, two, three: Can China counter its demographic drag by raising its birth rate?
Insight
NAB Insights from the Preliminary Q2 Quarterly Business Survey: July 2021
Wages growth and expectations.
Insight
Monthly Business Survey: June 2021
Confidence falls on virus fears.
Insight
AMW: Closed borders suggest Australia’s labour market will remain (temporarily) very tight
There are now less than two unemployed people for every job vacancy in Australia, a record low for this ratio.
Markets Today: Stocks high on earning hopes; times changing for ECB
Following a positive lead from Asia, US and EU equities have kick started the new week with a positive tone.
Markets Today: Delta’s day off
A swift turnaround in market sentiment on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill provides some of the reasons.
Markets Today: 2 percent or not 2 percent, that is the question
The ECB’S new strategy has driven the Euro higher in a market which has generally been driven down by COVID concerns. NAB’s David de Garis explains what’s changed in the ECB’s 2% inflation target.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 8 July 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: Fed minutes trumped by ECB strategy review
The FOMC minutes did little for cautious markets. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the outcome of the ECB’s Strategic Review should hold more interest.
Markets Today: Markets cautious on numerous fronts; RBA focuses on data not dates
The RBA is focused on data not dates, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in today’s Morning Call. It’s data from the US and Germany that’s added caution to markets overnight, along with rising concerns about China.
Rethink, Reset 2021: Building Back Better in Infrastructure
A look at how industry leaders are changing their behaviours across the infrastructure cycle from investment to planning to delivery.
AMW: What to look out for in Australian inflation
Q2 CPI is just under four weeks away (on Wednesday July 28). In this week’s Weekly we have a first look at what CPI may print and highlight why we believe Core CPI is likely to remain subdued despite the pick-up seen in core inflation in the US, NZ and Canada.
Markets Today: Freedom Day for the UK and D-Day for the RBA
What follows the QE2 in September? NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market is expecting a flexible target, but that we can expect a ripple of surprises from the RBA today.
Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks
The Fed will not see the need to act swiftly after Friday’s payrolls numbers, but it will be a different story for thew RBA tomorrow. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, given the improvements in the Australian economy, the need to run QE at $100 billion every six months is not there anymore.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: May 2021
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew in May, after a contraction in April.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 26 June 2021
Victorian spending has bounced back to above the national average.
Insight
The AUD in June 2021
The AUD traded in a wider range in June relative to May
Markets Today: The last day of treading water
Despite lots of data for markets to chew over, they are looking for a directional lead from non-farm payrolls, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Whether they’ll get it or not is the question.
State Economic Overview June 2021
A new phase of growth emerges across the states following a fast rebound.
Insight
Markets Today: Ignoring the talk, waiting for the facts
It’s been a scratchy session, says NAB’s David de Garis, as markets shy away from sharp moves ahead of Friday’s payrolls data from the US.
Markets Today: Confidence rising but so is the Delta strain
Reopening and vaccines are helping economies, but the Delta variant is still a concern for markets says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, explaining today’s sideways moves.
29 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Tody: Reflation retreats a little as virus spreads
Risk appetite retreats a little ahead of the non-farm payrolls on Friday and with the Delta strain delaying the reopening of economies, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland on today’s Morning Call podcast.
AMW: July 6 RBA Meeting Preview
Analysis: RBA Preview – what to expect and what to watch at the July 6 meeting
US Economic Update – June 2021
Fed – Still dovish but less than previously thought.
Insight
Markets Today: Lock down means no RBA lowdown
The impact of the latest lockdown and Biden’s stimulus backflip. NAB’s Ray Attrill on two bits of news for markets to respond to this morning.
25 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Biden whittles down infrastructure plan to win support
Equities driven higher by Biden’s infrastructure plan deal. NAB’s Gavin Friend says bond markets were unmoved by Fed speakers suggesting higher inflation for longer and rate rises sooner.
Markets Today: The crawl back is done, reflation takes over
Bond yields are back to where they were before the FOMC meeting, says NABs David de Garis, with the focus now back on the reflation trade.
Digital investment – an AFR special report
Digitalisation is enabling more aspects of our world to connect.
Markets Today: Fed cools things down, words from the RBA later
The global reflation trade is not dead, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as Fed speakers help markets further unwind their response to last week’s FOMC.
22 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Insight
AMW: Terms of Trade & AUD
Things were better in the old days
Markets Today: Swift turnaround as markets rethink FOMC response
Last week’s post FOMC sell-off was overdone, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland on today’s Morning Call podcast, evidenced by a big reversal overnight. Although markets remain jittery.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar caught in the storm
The US dollar continued to rise at the end of last week hitting a two-month high after the surprisingly bullish outlook from the Fed, but is the Aussie dollar paying too high a price?
Sustainable investing: giving your portfolio purpose
Investors have well and truly embraced sustainable bonds. But do they have what it takes to help better the world?
Article
China Economic Update – June 2021
Buyers beware: China’s consumers have remained subdued during the COVID-19 recovery.
Insight
Markets Today: NZ GDP, Aussie employment both punch the lights out but currencies fall
The US dollar continued to rise yesterday, after the hawkish comments from the Fed.
China’s Economy at a Glance – June 2021
Growth slowing as base effects wash away; consumers continue to lag industry.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 12 June 2021
The weakness in consumption spending continued last week.
Insight
Markets Today: Fed speeds up rate hike roadmap
At the FOMC meeting this morning the Fed upped their growth and inflation forecasts, with the dot plots pointing to rate rises as soon as 2023.
Markets Today: Retail sales numbers add to caution ahead of the FOMC
The FOMC meeting is tonight and markets are being cautious, with little movement in bonds or equities. A weaker than expected set of retail sales numbers has added to the uncertainty.
15 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Oil nudges higher
Oil has hit a two-year high.
Taking payments to whole new level
Immediate access to cash for Australian businesses through a PayPal and NAB collaboration.
Markets Today: Market unphased by US CPI
US CPI was a higher than expected but the Market seems to have taken it largely in its stride.
10 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
The Forward View – Global: June 2021
Advanced economies continue recovery, as Emerging markets face further COVID-19 struggle.
Insight
Markets Today: Inflation – mixed signals and opinions
Bond yields have fallen further overnight, in some cases to levels not seen for several months.
Cashless Retail Sales Index: May 2021
Retail trends continue to point to the COVID-induced consumer boom having largely run its course.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: June 2021
A healthy outlook for the economy beyond the rebound.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets going nowhere yet US job openings boom
Bond yields are pushing lower and market volatility is easing.
Monthly Business Survey: May 2021
Business conditions continue to boom.
Insight
Markets Today: Goldilocks loses a little of her shine
If non-farm payrolls gave markets a Goldilocks moment on Friday then maybe markets are already starting to question whether it was exactly what was needed.
AMW: What does neutral monetary policy look like today?
Now that the other side of the pandemic is emerging, clients are starting to ask how high rates will go when central banks start to normalise policy.
Markets Today: US jobs numbers hit the sweet spot
Not too good, not too bad, that seems to have been the market response to the non-farm payrolls numbers out of the US on Friday.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 29 May 2021
The slowdown in consumption continues.
Insight
Markets Today: Taper torment
There was speculation that the Fed would taper sooner rather than later.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – June 2021
YCC to end at Apr-24 and QE to be tapered to $75bn.
Insight
The AUD in May 2021
May was the lowest volatility month so far in 2021.
Markets Today: Beige Book highlights ‘brisk rise’ in input costs
If there’s one takeout from the Fed’s Beige Book overnight, aside from the continued improvement in the US recovery, it was the rising concern about input costs.
Australian Economic Update: Q1 GDP 2021
GDP Recovers Pre-COVID Levels
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: April 2021
NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in April, after a revised contraction in March.
Insight
Markets Today: No surprises from the RBA
The RBA didn’t steer from its earlier stance that it was too soon to be looking at any changes in policy right now.
NAB Corporate Cash Index: Q1 2021
The NAB Corporate Cash Index draws on our own Corporate and Institutional Banking client insight analytics to reveal cash management trends.
Sustainable finance update: May 2021
A look at what’s been happening in the sustainable finance market - in Australia and abroad.
US Economic Update – May 2021
Q2 growth still looking strong; April inflation surprise.
Insight
Australian GDP Preview: Q1 2021
Q1 2021 - GDP continues to recover.
Insight
1 June 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
AMW: Inflation expectations lifting globally but not in Australia yet
We look at inflation expectations which have rising strongly in the US and the potential implications for the US Fed.
Markets Today: China wants to curb the Yuan & grow the family
The rising Yuan is clearly a concern for the PBoC who announced measures to tackle it, whilst Chinese authorities are now permitting families to have three children.
Markets Today: Month end comes early for some
It was an early start to month-end on Friday, with the US and UK off on holiday today.
Markets Today: More central bankers wanting to ease off the pedal
Three central bankers argued for a more rapid tightening of monetary policy overnight.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 26 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: RBNZ talks it up, Europe talks it down
The RBNZ surprised many yesterday by indicating there could be an interest rate rise as soon as next year.
26 May 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: China gets Yuan up on the dollar
The US dollar has fallen again with rises in the Euro and a shift up in the Yuan, but will it stick?
AMW: Australia will likely hold its AAA credit rating
There's been some speculation that Australia’s AAA rating may be downgraded by one notch to ‘AA+’ in the wake of the Federal Budget.
Markets Today: Low volumes, more risk, less inflation concern
Equities are back on the rise and bond yields are falling, slightly, as investors seem to have accepted the line of most central banks that inflation is only transitory.
Unconventional investment thinking? It’s in your interest
It’s hard to invest for income right now. Maybe it’s time to try something different.
Article
Markets Today: Lagarde’s tapering reluctance
The Euro lost ground on Friday as President Lagarde refused to commit to any schedule for talking tapering.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 15 May 2021
Retail spending is down around 5% compared to the start of the year.
Insight
Markets Today: Another turnaround Thursday
Equities bounced back in the US and Europe as markets re-evaluated the comments about the timing of tapering in this week’s FOMC minutes.
Backing growth of the Australian hydrogen industry
Hydrogen holds great promise in decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors in the transition to a low carbon economy, as Australia’s trading partners ramp up their commitments to net zero.
Markets Today: Fed taper talk pushes yields higher
The FOMC minutes gave away more than expected with the Fed suggesting it might be appropriate at some point to discuss a plan to adjust the pace of asset purchases if the economic recovery continues.
Cashless Retail Sales Index: April 2021
With life in Australia currently very close to pre-pandemic “normal”, the boom in household goods and department stores has largely subsided.
Insight
Markets Today: US dollar heading to 2018 lows
It’s been a mixed session for US equities overnight whilst bonds headed sideways.
AMW: Closed borders & labour market recovery
The labour market recovery has been much faster than expected.
China’s Economy at a Glance – May 2021
Smaller base effects meant smaller growth rates in April but retail sales are still lagging.
Insight
18 May 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Uncertain markets change direction again
US shares fell as investors once again weighed up inflation concerns.
Markets Today: Inflation, confidence and retail
Share markets are riding high again in the US despite a triple whammy of disappointing reports.
14 May 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – The latest economic news
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Fewer jobless claims
USA equities came bouncing back after yesterday’s sharp response to the higher than anticipated CPI numbers.
Markets Today: The inflation shock we were warned about
US CPI numbers came in on the high side and markets have reacted swiftly with equities falling sharply and the bond sell-off pushing Treasury yields up.
Markets Today: Vertigo and inflation fears
The risk off mood is being driven by increasing inflation concerns.
Markets Today: Inflation, hugs and shrinking deficits
Inflation expectations continues to influence markets.
Monthly Business Survey: April 2021
Business confidence and conditions hit new highs.
Insight
AMW: How to assess the Australian budget
The Federal Budget will continue phase 1 of the Government’s fiscal strategy which seeks to secure Australia’s economic recovery from COVID by growing the economy to lower unemployment.
Markets Today: Does the US jobs shortfall vindicate the Fed’s cautious approach?
US non-farm payrolls markedly undershot market expectations on Friday with just 266k more people in work versus the expectation of close to one million.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 1 May 2021
Encouraging headline results for the week ending 1 May, further underline our view that the Australian economy is recovering well from the pandemic.
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: March 2021
NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in March, after a revised slight contraction in February.
Insight
Markets Today: Let’s not get carried away
The Bank of England has upped its forecasts for the growth of the UK economy this year – from 5 percent a few months ago, up to 7.25 percent.
Markets Today: Will the BoE taper before the Fed?
The Fed’s board continues to talk down the prospect of tapering, pushing the argument that price rises will be transitory.
Markets Today: Yellen’s rates call surprises
Janet Yellen surprised the markets uggesting it might be necessary to raise interest rates to stop the economy from overheating.
AMW: How tight does the labour market need to be?
How tight does the labour market need to be for the RBA to change forward guidance?
Markets Today: Demand beating supply
Demand is outstripping supply on both sides of the Atlantic.
China Economic Update – May 2021
Buy, buy, bye: political tensions could impact Australia’s trade relationship with China.
Insight
The AUD in April 2021
The AUD/USD traded in a 2.86c range in April with a low of 0.7532 recorded on the first day of the month while a high of 0.7818 printed on April 29.
Markets Today: A bad end to a solid month
Markets turned a little sour at the end of the week.
US Economic Update – April 2021
GDP growth off to a good start in early 2021 and set to accelerate.
Insight
Markets Today: The price of supply chain disruption
It’s been a choppy session for US stocks, even though the news on the economy was largely positive and earnings results have been strong.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2021
The NAB Commercial Property Index lifted for the third straight quarter, but remained negative and well below average.
Insight
Impact of COVID-19 on Australia’s CBD’s & what would encourage us to visit more often?
Australia is one of the most urbanised countries in the world with central business districts (CBDs) at the heart of economic, political, recreational, cultural and innovation activity. We explore the extent to which consumers have changed visitation to CBDs, why that is, and what would encourage them to return.
Insight
Markets Today: Long ways to go, says Powell
“long ways to go” is the Fed’s Jerome Powell’s take on the path to recovery for the American economy and the reason that rates won’t be lifting anytime soon.
28 April 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Treading water
Markets are treading water ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow morning.
2021 NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey webcast with ASFA CEO
Our Head of FX Investor Sales APAC and Head of FX Research joins ASFA CEO to discuss the 2021 survey.
AMW: What does population say about the outlook for rents?
We look at population dynamics over the COVID period and assess their implications for the outlook for rents.
Markets Today: Reflation reigns for now
Equities are on the rise again as risk sentiment rises following largely positive data.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 26 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Risk on, for how long?
Markets were on a positive frame of mind at the end of the week,
Markets Today: Rumoured US tax grab
Shares in the US have fallen on news of a planned sizeable hike in capital gains for wealthy Americans.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2021
Momentum builds.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 17 April 2021
Retail a little better (but still soft) and hospitality is showing strong performance after a very tough 2020.
Insight
Markets Today: Hawkish Bank of Canada boosts Canadian dollar
The Canadian dollar has been boosted by the Bank of Canada markedly increasing their growth forecasts for this year
Markets Today: Markets cautious over speed of recovery
There’s a cautious mood in the markets right now.
AMW: Inflation?
The signals to watch to see if central banks are right or wrong.
20 April 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Wall St pulls back during quiet session
US equities dipped a little overnight, pulling back from record highs.
12 months on from COVID-19: NAB Markets podcast
What's the economic and financial markets landscape 12 Months on from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic?
Markets Today: Bitcoin stalls but US economy set to rip
There’s still plenty of positive sentiment around as the US, UK and Europe continue to vaccinate at pace.
China’s Economy at a Glance – April 2021
Quarterly data point to weak start to 2021, but signs of consumers returning is positive.
Insight
NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021
High frequency indicators continue to point to a recovery in the global economy in early 2021. In Australia, the economic recovery continues at a brisk pace with forward indicators pointing toward ongoing strength in activity and the labour market, even as some fiscal support is wound back.
Insight
Markets Today: Topsy turvey response to a good news day
The news was largely positive overnight.
The Forward View – Global: April 2021
Uneven recovery set to continue into 2022, as EMs wait for vaccines.
Insight
Markets Today: Earnings up; oil shoots higher.
Equities came back off the highs we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday, but their decline didn’t reflect the sentiment in the market.
Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021
2021 is already showing signs that the retail sector is returning to something resembling “normal”, which is likely to see lower retail spending in areas like household goods, electronics and similar sectors.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: April 2021
Healthy momentum leading into the JobKeeper wind-up.
Insight
Markets Today: Vaccine slow down & inflation sign
It’s been a session with mixed messages.
AMW: Macro-prudential?
RBA and APRA suggest no imminent tightening.
Monthly Business Survey: March 2021
Business conditions reach a record high.
Insight
Markets Today: US CPI today
It’s been a fairly quiet session overnight.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 12 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: New highs, fast jabs & more inflation brush off
Equities in the US finished Friday on new highs.
Markets Today: Vaccine concerns
Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here young is anyone under 50.
NAB Business Innovation Index 2021
Innovation on the rise as Australian businesses double-down.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets lacklustre
It’s been one of the quietest sessions for some time.
Markets Today: Consolidating and vaccinating
There were no significant market moves overnight.
6 April 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
China Economic Update – April 2021
Don’t forget about me: lower skilled workers could be left behind by manufacturing’s evolution
Insight
The AUD in March 2021
The AUD/USD averaged almost exactly 0.77 over the month.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 6 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: US bounce pushes equities to record highs
US equities have been boosted by a string of positive data.
Markets Today: Markets rally ahead of Biden’s talk
President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen are about to give the details of their long-awaited infrastructure spending plan.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: February 2021
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index slowed (40.7% y/y).
Insight
31 March 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Biden the builder
US 10 year Treasury yields hit a 14 month high overnight, as the US dollar rose higher.
Markets Today: Open for business
Early in the session the fire-sale of $20 billion of stocks held by Archegos Capital was all everyone was talking about.
AMW: What happens after JobKeeper?
The JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme ended on Sunday March 28, how many people could potentially be displaced?
Markets Today: Block trades and blocked trade
There was quite a bit of optimism in the air on Friday as we career towards the end of the month and the end of the quarter this week.
Markets Today: Mixed sentiment sees markets move sideways
It’s been another mixed session.
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 20 March 2021
One year on from the onset of the first Australian coronavirus lockdowns.
Insight
Sustainable finance update: March 2021
An Australasian perspective on sustainable finance markets.
Markets Today: vaccine wrangles add to delay concerns
Even though countries are pressing ahead with vaccine role outs, the speed of recovery might be slower than envisaged.
US Economic Update – March 2021
2021 should be a year of strong growth
Insight
Markets Today: Oil price spills over COVID recovery concerns
Market sentiment has switched in the last 24 hours, with concerns that the economic recovery from COVID-19 might be slower than anticipated.
The post vaccine economic and market outlook
NAB recently hosted our inaugural Capital Markets 2021 Virtual Conference for issuers and investors.
Markets Today: US bond yields fall; risk sentiment boosts equities
There were big rises in US shares overnight, with the NASDAQ rising 1.7% in this session, helped by a moderate fall in Treasury yields.
AMW: Budget deficit to improve with unemployment falling and iron ore elevated
Last Thursday’s sharp fall in unemployment to 5.8% from 6.3% took the market by surprise.
Markets Today: Fed pushes bond yields up
There was more reaction to the FOMC meeting with bond yields rising sharply.
Markets Today: Strong market reaction as Fed changes nothing
The Fed has upped its growth expectations for the US economy, driven by the fiscal support and the vaccine rollout.
Markets Today: Slow movement, soft data
There wasn’t much movement in shares, bond yields or currencies overnight, despite weaker retail numbers out of the US.
Markets Today: Clots slow down the EU vaccine rollout
The fear of blood clots from injections means use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been suspended in an increasing number of European countries.
16 March 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
AMW: Maximum possible sustainable employment” – how much and when?
Central banks are pursuing ‘maximum possible sustainable employment’, an understated evolution in inflation targeting.
China’s Economy at a Glance – March 2021
Don’t be fooled by surging annual growth rates – momentum is set to slow across 2021.
Insight
Inflation: An inevitable outcome or not?
NAB recently hosted the inaugural Capital Markets 2021 Virtual Conference for issuers and investors.
Markets Today: Yields higher, jabs faster, inflation expectations lower
Bonds yields rose sharply again on Friday, with 10 year Treasuries reaching their highest level since February last year.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021
Rising restrictions to combat a resurgence in the spread of COVID-19 towards the end of 2020 slowed the global recovery but did not derail it. In Australia, the economy continues to recover at a rapid pace.
Insight
Markets Today: ECB to buy faster, US job claims slowing
Asset markets continue to be drawn by bond markets.
What to expect from public capital markets in 2021
The Australian corporate bond market faces a range of opportunities and challenges over the coming year, a recent NAB Capital Markets Forum heard.
The Forward View – Global: March 2021
US fiscal stimulus to add further impetus to global economic recovery.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending 6 March 2021
With many CBD office workers still working from home, this week we consider the impact of the pandemic on key CBD sectors.
Insight
Markets Today: Low US inflation
The story of the day was the softer US inflation numbers which saw yields pull back and helped stocks rise.
AMW: Underemployment back to pre-pandemic levels
We investigate the implications of the sharp fall in underemployment.
The Forward View – Australia: March 2021
GDP fully recovered by Q1, but spare capacity remains.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: February 2021
How will consumers respond as 2021 rolls on and the prospect of some kind of post-pandemic normality comes into view via vaccination?
Insight
Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021
COVID-19 continues to present some uncertainty around the outlook, particularly with the rollout of vaccines to emerging markets lagging that of advanced economies.
Insight
Markets Today: Another big share flip
Shares have reverted to a focus on tech in the US with a sharp rise in tech stocks.
NAB Economic Insights – spare capacity and the long road to 2-3% inflation
Despite a very strong start to the recovery, the economy is likely to have spare capacity for some time.
Insight
Monthly Business Survey: February 2021
Business conditions bounce, confidence rises further.
Insight
Markets Today: Turning away from tech as yields push higher
US Treasury yields pushed steadily higher overnight, reaching 1.6 percent for 10 year Treasuries.
Markets Today: US – strong jobs numbers, $1.9 trillion injection almost there
The US senate has passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, so it will almost certainly become law this week.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q4 2020 (Part 2: Financial Wellbeing)
Insights into financial anxiety & the role our household finances play in our wellbeing.
Insight
Super funds face new challenges post COVID
Superannuation funds will need to be nimble to take advantage of new investment opportunities, the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia conference heard.
Markets Today: bond yields climb again
Bond yields are on the rise, in the US and in Australia – for very similar reasons.
4 March 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Independent School Survey 2020
While last year was one of the most challenging for schools in Australia’s history, schools will adapt post-COVID.
Markets Today: Bond yield rising sharply
Bond yield have been rising sharply overnight.
Australian Economic Update: Q4 GDP 2020
Rebound continues as Victoria ends lockdown.
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: January 2021
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index returned to growth in January, after a short sharp contraction in December.
Insight
Impact 2021: Greening the Economy
Leaders in conversation on the Road to COP 26 and Beyond.
Markets Today: Australia’s growth, China’s warning
All eyes will be on Australia’s GDP read this morning, which Ray Attrill says is expected to be close to 3% growth QoQ, driven by consumer spending.
AMW: RBA pushes back on the extent of yield moves
The RBA’s 3yr YCC target and QE program have come under some challenge over the past week and a half amid the global bond sell-off.
2 March 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: RBA buys up ahead of today’s meeting
The RBA might have left itself with very little to say today, having upped their bond buying in response to the sharp rise in yields last week.
The AUD in February 2021
After what in the end turned out to be a month of consolidation for the AUD in January, with a monthly range of a little over two cents and the close only about half a cent lower than the open, February proved to be a much more volatile month.
China Economic Update – March 2021
Digital divorce: forces are pushing for a technology split from China.
Insight
Markets Today: Bond yields switch direction as volatility continues
Friday saw a reversal in the bond sell-offs earlier in the week, seeing 10 year yields in the US falling back top 1.4%.
Australian GDP Preview: Q4 2020
The rebound continues.
Insight
Life in the Lucky Country 2021: Is Australia still a great place to live?
Global pandemic boosts feeling of Australia as the lucky country.
Insight
Markets Today: A big bond sell-off
Despite the increasing dovishness of central bankers the markets have been selling government bonds like they are going out of fashion.
25 February 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights 25 February 2021
Consumption growth continues to moderate in the latest NAB Data Insights release for the week-ended 20 February 2021.
Insight
Markets Today: The battle to be king of the doves
Central bankers are fighting amongst themselves as to who can sound the most dovish.
US Economic Update – February 2021
2021 set to be a year of very strong growth.
Insight
Markets Today: Will the RBA play catch up?
Many believe the RBA didn’t go far enough on Monday, buying up a $1 billion of bond purchases in the face of sharply rising bond yields.
Super funds look to updated currency strategies
Turmoil in financial markets can have a dramatic impact on superannuation funds’ currency hedging strategies, the recent Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia conference heard.
23 February 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
AMW: JobKeeper’s end – economy to sustain momentum
Yields are rising in Australia and globally as the reflation trade takes hold.
Markets Today: Bond yields go crazy, Aussie dollar hits another multi-year high
Australian 10 year bond yields have nudged 1.65 percent for the first time since May 2019.
Markets Today: Multi-year highs for the Aussie Dollar and Sterling, whilst US yields shoot higher
There was a big rise in the Aussie dollar and the pound on Friday, both reaching multi-year highs.
Markets Today: US equities fall; pound rises
There have been big falls in US equities overnight after higher than anticipated jobless claims, showing its not a smooth recovery for the US.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q4 2020
While NAB’s Commercial Property Index lifted for the second straight quarter, it was still weak and well below average.
Insight
Markets Today: US – more shopping, higher producer prices
There was a strong bounce back in US retail sales in January.
NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2020
Businesses are having to adjust to a new kind of consumer, but it remains unclear which behaviours and sentiments will stick.
Insight
Markets Today: Treasury yields rise sharply as reflation rolls on
Equities were mixed in the US overnight, but the S&P 500 did manage to claw out a new record high, whilst the NASDAQ fell.
16 February 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: US rest day can’t stop reflation
America has been off work for Presidents Day, but that hasn’t stopped markets optimistically looking to a world where COVID-19 isn’t centre stage.
Markets Today: All the ex-President’s men
There’s absolutely no surprise that Donald Trump has been acquitted in Washington,
NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021
The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. Whereas in Australia, economic activity continues to rebound strongly.
Insight
Markets Today: Powell’s slow road
It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours with only slight market moves
The Forward View – Global: February 2021
Beyond near-term weakness outlook brightens on vaccine roll-out and fiscal support.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights 11 February 2021
Consumption growth continues to moderate in the new year, but remains positive overall.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets bide their time
Markets have been fairly subdued on the back of soft inflation numbers in the US, and as investors hold off for any revelations from Jerome Powell as he addresses the Economic Club of New York.
Sustainable Finance Update February 2021
According to BNEF, 2020 was a record year for sustainable debt issuance with annual issuance reaching US$732.1 billion across both bond and loan formats, representing a 29% uplift on 2019 levels.
The Forward View – Australia: February 2021
GDP growth and the labour market continue to surprise.
Insight
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2021
A range of key commodity prices rose in January.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: January 2021
January’s cashless retail result represents respectable growth, following significant volatility late last year.
Insight
Markets Today: China’s credit surprise boosts Euro. Here’s why.
The Euro gained on two fronts overnight.
Monthly Business Survey: January 2021
Business confidence rises, while conditions pull back.
Insight
AMW: Vaccine success in Israel bodes well for the outlook
Australia's vaccine rollout is due to start in late February with the ambitious target of having the population vaccinated by October.
Markets Today: Yellen denies great inflation expectations
Janet Yellen shrugged off concerns about the Biden stimulus package unleashing inflation on the US economy.
Markets Today: Inflation debate over Biden’s stimulus as jobs growth disappoints
Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers in the US surprised on the downside.
Markets Today: UK & US blossom while Europe struggles
The UK and the US are well ahead of Europe on vaccine rollouts, and that seems to be the major focus of markets right now.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – December 2020
The recovery continues.
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: December 2020
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December, after moderate growth in November.
Insight
Markets Today: New Zealand – first out?
New Zealand’s labour force data yesterday showed a strong fall in unemployment, possibly down to NAIRU levels.
Markets Today: Philip Lowe set to explain the dovish RBA stance
All eyes and ears will be on Philip Lowe’s speech today, following the very dovish outlook from the RBA yesterday.
2 February 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
AMW: RBA forecasts to be revised higher, eyes on Lowe for guidance
Today sees the first RBA Board Meeting of the year.
Markets Today: Moving on from GameStop, back to abnormality
In normal times an episode like the Reddit induced short squeeze would eventually see markets return to normal.
The AUD in January 2021
After the big gains during November and December last year, the first month of 2021 has been a period of consolidation for AUD/USD.
China Economic Update – February 2021
Meet the new boss: a Biden Administration doesn’t mean a return to Obama-era China policy.
Insight
Markets Today: Reddit warriors, vaccine nationalism and Morrison’s budget repair
Equities were hit hard on Friday as the Reddit warriors made their mark.
US Economic Update – January 2021
Recovery lost momentum at end of 2020; hope for a better 2021
Insight
Markets Today: Reddit Rebels shut out; US growth slows
US equities have bounced back after a day influenced by speculative trading on retail platforms with investors spurred on by chatter on Reddit.
NAB Economics Data Insights 23 January 2021
Overall spending growth slowing, but still positive in year-on-year terms
Insight
Markets Today: Big falls in shares ahead of a dovish Fed
The markets have so far been unmoved by the FOMC announcement, perhaps because it said so little.
Monthly Business Survey: December 2020
Business conditions improve to multi-year highs.
Insight
Markets Today: Asian equities hit, US stimulus delayed, Aussie inflation today
The IMF has upped their forecasts for global growth but, as Tapas Strickland suggests on this morning’s podcast, markets don’t tend to pay a lot of attention to these numbers
AMW: A 2-year yield target as an exit strategy from the 3-year yield target?
This week we review the range of views within NAB’s research teams about the future of various conventional and unconventional monetary policy settings.
State Economic Handbook: January 2021
Recovery from COVID-19 continues across Australia
Insight
Markets Today: Vaccine delays throw dampener on recovery timelines
Markets turned sharply to a risk-off mood at the end of last week, on the realisation that vaccine roll outs will take longer than hoped whilst infections are growing.
Markets Today: ECB sticks with bond buying plans
The ECB changed nothing overnight, with President Lagarde saying risks remained on the downside.
Markets Today: Inauguration Day highs
New highs on the NASDAQ and S&P500.
NAB Monetary Policy Update – January 2021
QE to continue, RBA to grapple with ending YCC.
Insight
AMW: Housing market activity soars but with little implications for the RBA
An internal RBA document obtained under a freedom of information request discussed the likely impact of low interest rates on asset prices (see RBA FOI).
Markets Today: America goes gaga as Janet Yellen acts big
It’s Inauguration Day, or it will be when Wednesday eventually ticks round in the US.
Markets Today: Trump’s last day – how much will Biden undo?
Markets are looking through the prospect on any unrest on inauguration day, but the more immediate question is what will the President do today?
China’s Economy at a Glance – January 2021
China’s economy enters 2021 with momentum, but expected to slow across the year.
Insight
Markets Today: Is Biden’s honeymoon over already?
Markets responded at the end of the week to Joe Biden’s proposals for stimulating the US economy.
Markets Today: Bond yields rise as Powell puts paid to tapering
Bond yields were already on the rise before Fed chairman Jerome Powell talked down the likelihood of any easing in bond purchases this year.
14 January 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights 14 January 2021
Consumption spending growth resumed in the week ending 9 January, up 4.1% on the same week last year.
Article
Markets Today: Bond yields fall on less taper talk
An ensuing impeachment of the US President continues to be of little concern to the markets.
Markets Today: Treasury appetite is still strong
With yields rising there’s been a question mark over whether the appetite for treasury bonds is falling.
AMW: COVID outbreak under control
Some small short-term cost to growth due to shutdowns and border re-closures, but medium-term outlook remains brighter.
12 January 2021 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: How much stimulus is too much?
Bond yields continue to rise in the US as markets prepare for an expected multi-trillion dollar stimulus package from the President-elect.
The AUD in December 2020
A month ago, we remarked that it was hard to recall a month where AUD/USD made its low point on the first trading day of the month and its high on the last, as was the case in November.
Markets Today: A Blue Wave into 2021
The Morning Call is back, and the new year has kicked off pretty much where we left off.
Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in
You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine.
21 December 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Why the private market is set to dominate investment
Record levels of spending will call for record levels of funding this decade. That’s a golden opportunity for the private markets – and high net worth investors.
Article
Markets Today: US deal imminent. UK marooned. Brexit all at sea
There’s a strong expectation that the US fiscal stimulus deal will be resolved in the next few hours.
China Economic Update – December 2020
What do alternative indicators suggest about China’s COVID-19 downturn and recovery?
Insight
Markets Today: One minute to midnight on US & UK-EU deals
The post-Brexit trade deal and the US fiscal stimulus deal have been pushed back time and time again, but we really are at the point of no return.
Markets Today: Imminent fiscal deal
There's rising hopes that a US fiscal stimulus deal is imminent.
Financing to support the climate transition
Companies that need to adapt and transition to lower carbon and more sustainable growth are tapping into a range of new sustainability-linked debt offerings to help finance this transition.
China’s Economy at a Glance – December 2020
China’s consumers finally remerging
Insight
Markets Today: Hope springs eternal, on both sides of the Atlantic
Equities have climbed higher in the US and Europe on the hopes two deals will be struck this week.
AMW: Australia China trade tensions
The Weekly provides an update on the China-Australia trade and the diplomatic dispute.
Markets Today: Vaccine optimism dimmed by new strain
The markets lost some of their mojo today.
Sustainable Finance Update December 2020
Q3 2020 saw increased issuance momentum with a record US$155bn of sustainable finance debt raised fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and global sustainability concerns.
US Economic Update – December 2020
Signs of slowing, but vaccine a positive
Insight
New pathways for the future of business
The banking sector has an important role to play in supporting industry through the economic recovery.
Markets Today: US in warp speed whilst UK dithers
The inoculation program in the US has ambitious targets.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020
Globally GDP rebounded strongly across all the major advanced economies in Q3, however the spread of COVID-19 remains a key risk to the outlook. In Australia our outlook now resembles the best-case scenario we outlined at the start of the pandemic, although large uncertainties remain, even with a vaccine seemingly close to being rolled out.
Insight
Markets Today: UK-EU no deal looms
Even though a hard deadline has been set for Sunday for the UK-EU trade deal, there’s no guarantee it will all end there.
10 December 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The Forward View – Global: December 2020
Widespread rebound in Q3 GDP, but COVID continues to disrupt global economy.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights 10 December 2020
We take a closer look at how selected retail and hospitality spending in the CBDs of Melbourne and Sydney have fared this year.
Podcast
Building business confidence in 2021
NAB senior leaders discuss the economy and the opportunities for business in 2021. Watch the video now.
Webinar
Markets Today: A big day for Europe
Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson have been meeting over dinner to discuss the progress of the UK-EU trade deal.
Minerals Energy Outlook: December 2020
Markets have been buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news, which could correspond with stronger economic activity and demand for commodities next year.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: December 2020 Updated
Stronger near-term recovery in activity and a lower peak in unemployment.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020
Victorian retail sales are now tracking just behind New South Wales and Queensland on a year ended basis. Western Australia remains the strongest performer, but other states are catching up.
Insight
Leading the way towards light economies
Europe’s Green Deal sets the 27 member states on a path to becoming carbon neutral by 2050. District heating and cooling is part of the solution.
Markets Today: UK trade talks to get an injection, but the prognosis is not good
The UK has started injecting people with the COVID vaccine. If only they could inject compromise in the UK and EU negotiators who remain a long way from reaching a deal.
Monthly Business Survey: November 2020
Further gains as the economy continues to open up
Insight
AMW: Global inflation & rates – what the latest research suggests
The prospect of a COVID-19 vaccine being deployed from mid-December (US/UK) is helping drive market expectations of a sharp cyclical rebound in 2021.
Markets Today: UK & EU leaders to hold last ditch meeting, pound is choppy
The UK-EU trade deal really is going right down to the wire – and the wire itself keeps getting pushed back.
A technology-led recovery from COVID-19
The effects of COVID-19 will be felt for years and cut across all prisms of life as we know it. What does Australia’s National Outlook look like now?
Markets Today: 60 percent chance of a UK-EU trade deal
US equities reached new highs again on Friday even though the jobs numbers were lower than anticipated.
Markets Today: One deal down, two to go
OPEC+ has struck a deal to slowly increase oil production from next month, rather than letting the production cuts fall off a cliff.
Liquidity management beyond the crisis
2020 has presented some unique challenges for corporate treasurers. Looking ahead, now is the time for many to review liquidity management strategies to ensure they are well placed as we adjust to a new post COVID-19 normal.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: October 2020
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in October, after four strong months of growth.
Insight
3 December 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: More US stimulus talk; less Brexit hope
The pound has taken a sharp hit as Brexit talks don’t seem to have progressed much at all.
Australian Economic Update: Q3 GDP 2020
A strong rebound as the recovery begins. GDP rose by a large 3.3% in Q3, following the sharp 7% fall in Q2.
Insight
The AUD in November 2020
It’s hard to recall a month when AUD/USD made its low point on the first trading day of the month and its high on the last.
Markets Today: China’s PMI high, Australia’s GDP bounce, the Brexit tunnel, OPEC delays and a US stimulus deal?
There’s a positive vibe about this morning, pushing equities higher and Treasury yields have seen a sharp rise too.
1 December 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Overcoming the COVID-19 supply chain disruption
Thousands of businesses around Australia are re-assessing their supply chains, inventories and financing options to deal with future shocks in the wake of disruptions caused by the pandemic.
AMW: Making a molehill out of a fiscal cliff?
Treasurer Frydenberg today stated JobKeeper numbers have more than halved from a peak of 3.6m, to now just 1.5m as at 26 November.
Markets Today: Month-end rebalancing
The US dollar was losing ground for most of the session before a sudden reversal that knocked the Euro off a multi-year high.
Markets Today: Gone fishing
The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel.
Australian GDP Preview: Q3 2020
Large rebound from COVID impacted Q2.
Insight
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q3 2020 (Part 2: Financial Wellbeing)
Financial anxiety falls to its lowest level in 2 years. But concerns are much higher for Australians who have lost their income due to COVID-19.
Insight
Markets Today: Lane’s credit concerns
The ECB’s Philip Lane expressed concern about the tightening of credit standards which could impede the European recovery.
NAB Economics Data Insights 26 November 2020
NAB’s latest Data Insights saw consumption spending growth slow to 2.2% % y/y in the week ending 21 November (4.9% last week).
Insight
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2020
The COVID-led economic downturn continued to weigh heavily on commercial property market sentiment in Q3.
Insight
Markets Today: Not much to be thankful for
It’s Thanksgiving today in the US and markets have been cautious ahead of the holidays.
Markets Today: Trump relents, oil climbs and Dow hits new high
New positivity with the Dow breaking 30,000 for the first time, due in part to hopes for; a vaccine and a peaceful transition for the Biden administration.
24 November 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
AMW: Labour market improving more quickly than expected?
The labour market has improved sharply over recent months with employment outside of Victoria almost back to pre-pandemic levels.
Markets Today: More positive vaccine news, but equities are cautious
Astra Zeneca announced the results of their trials, with efficacy up to 90 percent with a drug that is cheaper to produce and easier to distribute.
Markets Today: Revised Aussie growth forecast and a Fed-Treasury spat
NAB has revised its forecasts for growth in the Australia economy.
The Forward View – Australia: November 2020 Updated
Stronger activity and a smaller hit to unemployment in the near term.
Insight
20 November 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Insight
Markets Today: Lockdown jitters
The markets are more focused on the short-term economic hit of lockdowns than the longer-term vaccine fuelled positive outlook.
Markets Today: Lockdowns & infections overshadow more vaccine news
Markets continue to be torn between the good news and the bad news.
Markets Today: Markets take a breather, but standby for more vaccine news
There was no new vaccine news overnight and the markets seemed a little disappointed by that, with equities down and a move to government bonds.
17 November 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
US Economic Update – November 2020
Q3 bounce; but COVID-19 risks remain
Insight
AMW: Where to now for office and retail property?
As the economy starts to recover, the likely pace and strength of the recovery in the office and retail property markets is uncertain.
Beyond 2020: Creating opportunities
Over recent months, every organisation has had to adapt and innovate to find new ways of doing business.
Markets Today: And another one
Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness.
China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2020
Consumers gradually returning to the market, with China still reliant on industry.
Insight
Markets Today: Vaccine vs infections – the only news that seems to matter
Last week was a volatile one, but markets enthusiasm stemming from the hope of a vaccine led the charge, with some shifting of focus on equity markets.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2020
COVID-19 remains a major factor influencing the global economy. While in Australia the RBA has lowered rates to a record low of 0.1% and announced a QE program.
Podcast
Markets Today: Markets realise there’s tumult before a vaccine
This week’s earlier optimism over a possible vaccine for COVID-19 has disappeared completely, with equities falling and bond prices rising.
The Forward View – Global: November 2020
After two steps forward, European lockdowns are a step back for the recovery.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights 12 November 2020
Overall spending increased 7.0% in Victoria (first positive result since the first week of August), second only to WA (8.3%).
Insight
Markets Today: Vaccine rally continues but central banks more guarded
Even though the markets continue to respond positively to the hope of a vaccine, central bankers seem to be taking a more cautious tone.
The Forward View – Australia: November 2020
NAB Forecasts fundamentally unchanged – but large uncertainties remain.
Insight
Minerals & Energy Outlook: November 2020
October was another mixed month in commodity markets.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020
The retail sector has proven to be very resilient this year, although many consumers have changed their spending behaviour, leading to a boom for some retailers and bust for others.
Insight
Markets Today: Tech hit by vaccine and antitrust moves. RBNZ today, less dovish perhaps?
Those vaccine hopes continue today, even though there were warnings from Fed officials that the economy still faced ongoing impacts from COVID-19, with structural differences highlighting the need for the fiscal stimulus that now seems unlikely to happen this year.
Monthly Business Survey: October 2020
Business confidence rose to its highest level since mid-2019, led by a large gain in Victoria.
Insight
AMW: Loan deferrals are falling, while prices and mortgage activity recovers
APRA recently released updated details on the major banks’ home loan deferral scheme.
Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore
The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) news that Pfizer have successfully completed stage three of their COVID-19 vaccine trials, with an astonishing 90% success rate.
Markets Today: A blue wave is still possible, after two months of ‘no
There’s still an outside chance that in January the Democrats could take control of the Senate.
Markets Today: Fiscal stimulus desperately needed
Markets have adopted a risk-on stance with the hope that there'll be fiscal stimulus to counter the impacts of COVID-19.
5 November 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020
With COVID-19 restrictions easing across much of the country, consumer anxiety has continued to moderate and spending behaviours are shifting.
Insight
Markets Today: Divided they stand
US equities have climbed as the US goes through Wednesday without a clear winner in the election.
NAB Change to Rate Call – November 2020
RBA cuts rates to 0.1% and announces $100bn worth of QE.
Insight
Markets Today: Lowe goes heavy, US stocks run hot on Biden hope
The RBA announced cuts to interest rates and a $100bn bond buying program yesterday.
AMW: The Inflation debate: up, down, or unchanged?
Core inflation has been below the RBA’s 2-3% target since 2014, and for many central banks around the world, inflation has been well below target for at least a decade.
Markets Today: Markets turn green on hope of a blue victory
Markets flipped from Friday’s share and bond sell-off, with more optimism a day or two out from what is expected to be a Biden victory.
The AUD in October 2020
AUD/USD traded a more subdued range in October than in September (less than 2 ½ cents versus more than 4 cents in September).
NAB Online Retail Sales Index September 2020
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index continued to grow, albeit slowing in September.
Insight
China Economic Update November 2020
China looking inward as the external environment has deteriorated.
Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November
After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the difficult job of determining how to see the economy through rising infection numbers.
Seven lessons on social value
We’ve partnered with The Australia—United Kingdom Chamber of Commerce and the New South Wales Government to launch the second business insight report in this three part series: Impact 2020: Seven Lessons in Social Value.
Sustainable finance update: October 2020
Green, social, sustainability and sustainability-linked bond market nearly doubles in Q3 2020.
Markets Today: Markets bounce back – for now
Markets turned around again with equities rising sharply.
29 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – September 2020
An improvement across the Survey – but some way to go.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights 29 October 2020
Consumer spending fell for the first time in 6 weeks.
Insight
Markets Today: Markets hit hard
Markets have been hit by concerns over COVID-19 and the US election aftermath.
Markets Today: Is the Biden Trump gap closing?
There’s a risk that next week’s US election is more contestable than we might have considered a week ago.
27 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: COVID concerns get classic risk-off treatment
Markets are displaying classic risk-off moves today – with equities down, bond prices up and the US dollar the safe haven currency of choice.
AMW: How big will the RBA’s QE program have to be?
The RBA is widely expected to ease policy further in November by cutting the cash rate to 0.10%, along with the 3-year yield target (YCC) and the TFF rate.
Markets Today: Markets running scared at start of Halloween week
Last week finished with US stocks down, the US dollar down and the price of bonds down.
NAB Health Australian Wellbeing Report: Q3 2020
Wellbeing diverging markedly across the country.
Insight
NAB Business Wellbeing Survey Q3 2020
NAB launches a new measure of business wellbeing.
Insight
Markets Today: Trump’s last stand
In a few hours Joe Biden and Donald Trump go head to head in the last election debate.
22 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
US Presidential Election: US Economic Update – October 2020
Sustained large budget deficits likely regardless of the victor, with Biden the frontrunner.
Insight
Markets Today: Look who’s talking (x2)
Talks are back on.
Markets Today: Still wishing and hoping on stimulus deal
Equities are higher in the US today.
20 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
AMW: Population 1.6m less than previously projected by 2030
Australia’s population growth is expected to slow sharply over the next two years, primarily due to net migration given closed international borders.
Markets Today: Deal or no deal, transatlantic edition
Markets are waiting to see the outcome of two on again off again decisions, both with sizeable economic consequences.
China’s Economy at a Glance – October 2020
China’s recovery remains industrial led, but consumers are finally emerging.
Insight
Why responsible investing is attracting big money
Responsible investing among Australia’s wealthiest individuals is rising exponentially. The question is: why?
Article
Markets Today: A calm Friday, but it could be a volatile week
After a fairly volatile week markets were calmer on Friday on the back of positive retail numbers from the US.
16 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Risk off mood as virus cases rise
There’s a strong risk off mood in the air, which has pushed the US dollar higher and hit stocks.
NAB Economics Data Insights 15 October 2020
We've seen a small (0.2%) increase in overall consumption spending, for the week ended October 10.
Insight
Markets Today: Trump talks it up. Will Lowe talk it down?
Philip Lowe, the Governor of the RBA, is talking this morning.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2020
Trends in global commodity prices remain mixed.
Insight
Markets Today: The Aussie coal ban and earnings caution
The Aussie dollar has taken a hit twice in the last twenty-four hours.
China Economic Update October 2020
COVID-19 put the brakes on already stalling foreign investment.
Insight
AMW: House prices holding up more than rents as population growth slides
House prices have held up surprisingly well during the pandemic, with household incomes supported by various measures (JobKeeper, JobSeeker, super withdrawals and interest rate cuts), while repayment deferrals have limited forced sales to date.
Markets Today: Aussie down with Renminbi; Barrett trumps stimulus on Columbus Day
The US Senate is seemingly preoccupied with pushing through Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court nominee, casting aside any bandwidth for fiscal stimulus talks.
12 October 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
Listen to the full podcast now. If listening on a mobile device, click listen in browse.
Podcast
Markets Today: US dollar sinks along with Trump’s hopes
The US dollar hit a two and a half year low on Friday, whilst the Chinese Yuan showed big gains.
Markets Today: Markets cling on to stimulus hopes, but maybe after a Biden victory
Donald Trump continues to talk about a stimulus deal, even though he said it had been shelved.
Markets Today: Markets bounce back on stimulus hopes
There’s been a market rebound on the hope that some sort of stimulus deal in the US is still possible before the election.
Markets Today: Markets take a hit as Trump ditches stimulus talks
There’s been a strong reaction in the equity and currency markets to Donald Trump’s sudden decision to stop talks about a fiscal stimulus, even though he tweeted about the need for it whilst in hospital over the weekend.
AMW: Stay-at-home holidays won’t offset the COVID-19 hit to inbound tourism
Domestic and international visitors spent $152bn in Australia in 2018-19, $39bn by international visitors. However, the pandemic has seen international and domestic visitor spending collapse amid borders closures and restrictions.
Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID
As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of the Heroes Act, adding more stimulus to the US economy.
Monthly Business Survey: September 2020
Overall, the survey saw a modest improvement in September.
Podcast
The AUD in September 2020
It was quite a fall from grace for AUD/USD in September.
Markets Today: One big October surprise
Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems he could be returning to the White House as soon as today. So, do the markets take back some of their risk concerns, and focus on the positives of the situation?
Markets Today: Fiscal stalemate and long tunnel vision
Equities in the US rose overnight despite a stalemate on the fiscal stimulus package.
NAB Economics Data Insights 1 October 2020
While still contracting, Vic (-7.4%) spending falls have moderated, with an improvement in non-lockdown areas.
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index August 2020
Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index slowed a little from the record set in July.
Insight
Markets Today: Strong US data; no room for Chicken Lickens
Equities have been helped by some strong data from the US and continued hope on a stimulus deal.
Markets Today: No more heroes anymore
Despite a big jump in confidence in the Conference Board numbers for the US, there’s not much optimism in the markets today.
Markets Today: Taxing issues don’t hold back risk sentiment
US and European equities rose sharply, with rising confidence seeing a fall in the US dollar and a rise in the Aussie.
AMW: budget preview, what we know so far
The Federal Budget is on October 6 and today's Weekly summarises the key budget initiatives that will likely be announced.
28 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Courting support ahead of election debates
COVID19 cases continue to rise in Europe, with numbers in the UK and France now well above the first wave.
25 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
US Economic Update – September 2020
Recovery continues, but risks remain.
Insight
Markets Today: Are bailouts bygones?
Equities were rising again in the US overnight on the hopes that a stimulus deal would be struck between the GOP and Democrats, but as optimism turned to reality, prices fell, the US dollar regained some of its strength and bond yields weakened.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar falls as risk sentiment deteriorates
NAB had forecast that the Aussie dollar would reach 74 US cents by the end of the year. It did earlier this month but, as global risk sentiment rises, it is rapidly losing ground.
Markets Today: Powell asks for support, Debelle hints at easing, NAB revises rates forecasts
In the US Jerome Powell spelt out very clearly in his testimony before Congress that more fiscal stimulus was needed and had been assumed by many board members in their policy predictions.
NAB Change in Policy View – 22 September 2020
The RBA continues to signal further monetary easing is likely.
Insight
22 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
AMW: Labour market recovering more quickly than expected
Traditionally the labour market has been a lagging indicator of activity. However, in this pandemic it is largely contemporaneous and is thus a good summary indicator of the wider economy as well as being timely given new data sets such as weekly payrolls and regular job ad updates by SEEK and Indeed.
Markets Today: Equities fall; bond yields weaken
Concerns over the impact of a second wave in the US and Europe seem to be gathering momentum, driving investors to government bonds and safe-haven currencies.
Markets Today: A word from your central bank
What more can central banks do to help stabilise the global economy?
18 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Equities fall again
It’s been a topsy turvy session overnight.
NAB Economics Data Insights 17 September 2020
For the week ended September 12, NAB data showed a -2.5% year-on-year fall in overall consumption spending.
Insight
Markets Today: Fed says 3 years near zero
US interest rates will be lower for longer – that’s the takeout from today’s FOMC meeting.
China Economic Update: September 2020
Will Chinese manufacturers lose in the post-COVID world?
Insight
Markets Today: China shops, RBA waits, FOMC meets
US equities are on the rise again driven by a flurry of M&A activity, alongside vaccine hopes and reasonable activity numbers from China.
China’s Economy at a Glance – September 2020
China’s industrial sector still driving the recovery, with consumers lagging.
Insight
Markets Today: Vaccine by year end
Shares climbed in the US on the hope Pfizer will have a vaccine ready by the end of the year.
AMW: loan deferrals are falling
Yet house prices remain surprisingly resilient.
14 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: 6 months on – a still uncertain future
It’s just over six months since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and we’re still unsure about how it will all end.
Reimagining supply chains
A rethink of corporate strategies sees a renewed appreciation of the importance of resilience in the supply chain
State of the nation: NAB’s 2020 Consumer Health Survey checks Australia’s pulse
NAB’s latest in-depth report reveals how Australians and the health system are coping with COVID-19.
Article
NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020
Globally, after massive falls in GDP in Q2 across the advanced economies, the latest indicators are pointing to a substantial, but incomplete, Q3 rebound. In Australia, GDP fell by 7% in Q2 – the largest fall in the history of the quarterly national accounts.
Insight
11 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Trends in card based procurement
Leveraging real-time pre-transaction risk controls to unlock card based procurement efficiencies.
Markets Today: Pound pummelled
The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdrawal Agreement.
The Forward View – Global: September 2020
Economic rebound in Q3, but signs that growth momentum is slowing.
Podcast
Markets Today: Equities bounce back ahead of ECB meeting
There’s been a rebound in risk sentiment.
The Forward View – Australia: September 2020
VIC virus & reduced Government support means flat H2 2020. Larger falls through 2020 mean better 2021. But recovery still tough & long.
Insight
Cashless Retail Sales Index: August 2020
Retail sales have been resilient recently, given restrictions on consumer activity and the large hit to the Australian economy.
Podcast
Minerals & Energy Outlook: September 2020
At a high level, commodity prices broadly strengthened in August (with coal and gold the notable exceptions).
Markets Today: US equities hit again
US equities have had a third session with substantial falls.
Monthly Business Survey: August 2020
Conditions soften, while Confidence is still weak.
Podcast
AMW: the uneven impact of job losses
Despite strong job gains in June and July, there are still over half a million people who have lost work since March and an unknown number supported by JobKeeper.
Markets Today: Brexit brinkmanship
A drop in the pound was the only significant market move overnight.
Markets Today: US jobs coming back but “harder from here”
US jobs data on Friday helped the equities market to regain a little composure as it fell for the second day.
Three accelerating trends in transaction banking
We outline three recent accelerating trends in the Australian payments space.
NAB Economics Data Insights 4 September 2020
For the week ended August 29, NAB data shows a -2.5% year-on-year fall in overall consumption spending - the first negative read since very early-May.
Insight
Markets Today: Equities hit
There have been massive falls in US equities, particularly tech stocks.
3 September 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index July 2020
Record year on year growth, boosted by Victoria.
Insight
Markets Today: equities still rise
The US dollar managed a slight recovery which has also seen continued growth in US equities.
Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020
Q2 GDP fell by a massive 7% (-6.3% y/y), confirming the large hit to economic activity as a result of the shutdown to limit the COVID-19 pandemic.
Insight
Markets Today: Europe’s prices drop; US shares rise
Deflation in Europe comes as no surprise but the markets are still adjusting to the shift in the Fed’s monetary policy.
Technology Fast 50 2020
Calling today’s tech leaders and future disruptors. Nominations are now open for the Deloitte Technology Fast 50.
The AUD in August 2020
August proved to be a big month for the AUD/USD.
AMW: unusual recovery in job advertising in the smaller states
Many of the smaller states’ economies are benefiting from both better virus numbers along with relatively smaller exposures to business services.
Markets Today: Aussie and NZ dollar flying high
The Australian and NZ dollars reached two-year highs in the overnight session.
ESG investment – an AFR special report
Facilitating the flow of capital towards sustainable initiatives and investing in our economy to drive recovery, create jobs and supercharge innovation has never been more important.
31 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
US Economic Update – August 2020
Growth is set to bounce back in Q3, but the recovery lost momentum through July/August.
Insight
Markets Today: US dollar falls as Fed’s policy sinks in
The US dollar bore the brunt of Friday’s reflective thinking on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
Australian GDP Preview: Q1 2020
GDP is expected to decline by 5.8% (-5.1% y/y) in Q2 – the largest quarterly fall on record.
Insight
28 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Managing counterparty risk
Focussing on the 3 Golden Rules of counterparty risk management will help your business navigate these uncertain times.
Markets Today: Powell’s ‘average’ address
Jerome Powell used his virtual address to the Jackson Hole Symposium to announce the Fed’s strategy of targeting an ‘average’ 2% inflation rate
Markets Today: High hopes and higher equities
There’s continued optimism in the markets with equities reaching new highs again.
Society, family, legacy: The new priorities of philanthropy
When it comes to charitable donations today, it’s not just how much you give but how you do it.
Article
Markets Today: Choppy waters with a flash of hope for Germany
The US dollar is down again with equities up and touching new highs again.
State Economic Handbook: August 2020
Latest restrictions will hit Victoria’s economy hard, but COVID-19 has impacted all states.
Insight
AMW: Demographics and long-term inflation
Inflation is expected to weaken materially in the near term.
Markets Today: Looking on the bright side of life
US equities reached new highs again, with big gains also in Europe.
24 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Europe slows down
Europe’s PMI’s disappointed markets on Friday, whereas the US numbers were better than expected.
Markets Today: Equity highs, then PMIs
US equities continue to rise, even though the jobless claims numbers rose last week.
20 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights 20 August 2020
For the week ended August 15, NAB data shows a -1.5% year-on-year decline in overall consumption spending.
Insight
Markets Today: FOMC minutes fail to map out direction
There was disappointment from investors after the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting were released.
AMW: Labour market outlook
Labour market recovers 40-50% from pandemic lows, but large spare capacity remains.
Markets Today: Stocking up and moving up
US stocks continue to rise to record highs, helped today by strong housing starts and building permits.
Markets Today: Aussie flies higher
The US dollar continues to fall, pushing the Aussie dollar higher this morning.
17 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: No trade talks; Democrats swing into action
US-China trade talks have been called off for the foreseeable future with little market impact.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020
The global economy continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19. However, there is still a long way back with progress. In Australia, we have downgraded our forecasts due to the containment measures in Victoria.
Podcast
The AUD in July 2020
The AUD/USD in July was a tale of two halves.
Markets Today: Jobs, stimulus and bond yields
Jobs data is confusing right now. How much is it influenced by government stimulus activity?
13 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The Forward View – Global: August 2020
Global recovery continues but it is uneven and still a long way back to ‘normal’.
Insight
Markets Today: US equities head for highs
US equities continue to race upwards, at or near record highs.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2020
Our internal data point to a moderate decline in July, having stabilised at a surprisingly buoyant level after the rollercoaster earlier this year.
Podcast
Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2020
Commodity markets have continued to display differing trends.
Insight
Markets Today: Russian roulette
Markets in Europe seem to have been encouraged by the news that Russia is to start vaccinating key workers in the next few weeks.
Monthly Business Survey: July 2020
Conditions continue to recover, but confidence remains fragile.
Insight
Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs
The latest JOLTs (job openings) showed there are 5.9 million jobs available, more than expected, but it didn’t give markets any kick.
AMW: RBA expects a slow, bumpy recovery
Much will depend on Victoria.
Markets Today: Get set for TikTok tit for tat
Trump’s executive orders hit technology stocks in the US and China on Friday.
NAB Commercial Real Estate Industry Outlook Webinar
Medium term outlook buoyed by positive growth in the Industrial sector despite challenging outlook across Office & Retail asset classes.
Webinar
Markets Today: Go it alone on stimulus
President Trump has indicated if no stimulus deal is reached he’ll use his executive powers.
Residential property industry outlook webinar
Optimistic outlook across the Residential Property market despite varying levels of performance and recovery.
Webinar
6 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights 6 August 2020
NAB data for the week ended August 1 suggests the trend decline in consumption spending seen in recent weeks has continued.
Insight
Markets Today: Is gold indestructible?
Gold has broken the $2,000/ounce mark, so is it making a run for it?
Markets Today: Gold’s new high; bond yields head lower
Treasury bond yields are reaching new lows which has heightened the appetite for gold.
The Forward View – Australia: August 2020
VIC virus shutdown makes the outlook significantly worse with no quick bounce back, with unemployment and poor confidence big issues.
Insight
4 August 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
AMW: FX forecast update
AUD/USD outlook revised up.
China Economic Update: August 2020
Mixed signals – some risks from China’s incomplete recovery.
Insight
Markets Today: Manufacturing climbs
There was a lot of optimism in the markets overnight, driven by strong manufacturing numbers in the US and Europe.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – June 2020
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data returned to more moderate growth in June.
Insight
Markets Today: Lockdowns abound; still no US fiscal deal
The Australian economy will take a hit from the stage four lockdown in Melbourne, but it’s not alone.
US Economic Update – July 2020
Massive fall in Q2 GDP.
Insight
Markets Today: The big US slowdown, Trump talks election delays
The US dollar continued to slide, with a fall in shares and US Treasury yields, as GDP numbers showed the extent of the shock to the US economy in Q2.
30 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Powell’s “tough situation” yet equities push higher again
“We’re in a tough situation” – that was the response from Jerome Powell to one question during the FOMC press conference this morning.
Sustainable finance update: July 2020
An Australasian perspective on sustainable finance markets.
An alternative option for your investment portfolio
Australian investors have had largely overlooked alternatives. COVID-19 may well change that.
Article
Markets Today: US heads for fiscal cliff as confidence slides
The US is no nearer to reaching agreement on their fiscal stimulus package.
AMW: Which states are performing best and why?
The Weekly looks at how the various Australian states have been performing.
Markets Today: Gold bubbles higher; mighty dollar falls further
Gold has reached a record high, whilst the US dollar continues to slide.
27 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
A big year for equity capital raisings on the ASX
A temporary easing in rules around equity capital raisings has helped a surge in activity and this is expected to continue as companies shore up their balance sheets.
Markets Today: Will Congress keep the money rolling-in?
The US dollar lost a lot of ground last week as Congress argued over the shape and form of the next recovery package.
Working capital and supply chain resilience
The pandemic has highlighted the importance of supply chain resilience for many Australian businesses.
Markets Today: Markets tumble; optimism turns to Europe
It's been a classic risk-off session so far, at least in the second half.
23 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
A large deterioration in the budget position and a pessimistic economic outlook. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights, 23 July 2020
NAB’s latest Data Insights highlight a slowdown in consumption spending in recent weeks.
Insight
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – June 2020
The impact of COVID-19 sees a large deterioration in conditions.
Insight
Markets Today: race to splash the cash
Europe's done it, Australia's done it. Now it's the US' turn to extend their fiscal support, and the deadline is looming.
Purpose-driven profit
A look at how corporate purpose, responsible investment and government leadership are driving greater outcomes for the economy, environment and society.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2020
The COVID-19 led economic slowdown had a major impact on commercial market sentiment in Q2.
Insight
China Economic Update: July 2020
Long term pain – could the COVID-19 recovery disrupt SOE reform?
Insight
Digital revolution offers new infrastructure opportunities
The COVID-19 pandemic is set to accelerate the shift to the digital economy, expanding the relatively new asset class of digital infrastructure.
Markets Today: Europe shines brighter
The Aussie dollar rose over 1.7 percent, helped by the gain in the Euro after leaders there reached an agreement on a European Rescue Plan.
AMW: residential construction outlook
500k less people means a soft residential construction outlook.
Markets Today: Extending JobKeeper and vaccine hope
Scott Morrison will unveil changes to the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs today
20 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: A recovery plan in need of rescue
After three days debating the size and shape of the European Recovery Plan, EU leaders failed to reach an agreement.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2020
The global economy is forecast to contract by 3.5% in 2020, before increasing by 6.0% in 2021, and 3.9% in 2022.
Podcast
Markets Today: Jobs, jobs, jobs
There's been a lot of employment numbers out over the last 24 hours – for the US, the UK and Australia.
China’s economy at a glance – July 2020
China’s old economy drives growth to unexpected high in Q2.
Insight
16 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The Forward View – Global: July 2020
Global recovery continues but virus outbreaks a major risk.
Insight
Markets Today: Finding the shape of the new abnormal
There’s another possibly shape – the W recovery.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2020
A number of commodity markets saw stronger prices in June –particularly base metals, gold and oil.
Insight
The Forward View – Australia: July 2020
Extent of the fall in Q2 GDP revised sharply down – as is 2020. But pain still large and long lasting. With new virus uncertainties.
Insight
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020
Our data mapping points to a moderate fall in June, following massive swings in March, April and May suggesting there has been some stabilisation in retail sales.
Podcast
Markets Today: European plan hopes boost the Euro
The Euro’s rise is based on hopes that European leaders will reach a consensus on their rescue package this week.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2020
Both business conditions and confidence continued to rebound in June – though it is important to note they are still weak in level terms.
Insight
AMW: International students in Australia
Education exports are likely to remain weak as international travel remains difficult and the global economy slowly recovers from a deep recession.
Markets Today: Vaccine hopes then China tensions
Equities in the US spent most of the session rising, driven by the news that Pfizer and BioNTech’s experimental vaccine has being fast tracked in the US.
Markets Today: China news and virus news
Markets opted to take the positive news on Friday, sending shares higher and the US dollar lower.
The AUD in June 2020
Intra-month range extremes for AUD/USD in June came in the first ten days of the month.
Markets Today: Confidence vs COVID – the battle continues
Markets are split between the confidence things might be getting better versus the realisation that in the US southern states infection rates (and fatalities) are getting worse.
9 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights, 9 July 2020
NAB’s latest Data Insights report shows quite strong consumption spending leading into the Victoria shut down.
Insight
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q2 2020 (Part 2: Financial Wellbeing)
Financial Anxiety falls to below survey average levels in Q2 2020.
Insight
Markets Today: UK Government goes Dutch on lunch
The UK government going halves on lunch if you eat out in the first half of the week.
Markets Today: Wait and see
There isn’t an immense amount of confidence about how quickly economies will recover.
AMW: JobKeeper & JobSeeker – what happens come September?
What happens after the JobKeeper and JobSeeker schemes end in September? "Will the economy fall off a cliff?" is one of the most frequently asked questions by clients.
Markets Today: Look out for the cloud in the silver lining
Everyone is seeing the silver lining, but clouds could be forming.
How has the FX Global Code evolved?
Experts at a recent webinar discussed the role of the FX Global Code in easing the market turbulence caused by COVID-19.
6 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Split between the economy, virus and China
Which way will the markets be pulled this week?
Markets Today: Roaring back, a bit
The US President declares the economy is roaring back following 4.8 million new jobs in June.
2 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – May 2020
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted slightly in May, after recording the most rapid growth in the series history in April.
Insight
Markets Today: lifeboats for Hong Kong; vaccine for COVID
The overnight session started on a sour note over increasing concerns about Hong Kong.
Markets Today: virus ‘out of control’ yet equities still rise
Dr Fauci has declared the virus as ‘out of control’ in the US and more measures need to be brought in to contain it.
Australian Markets Weekly: RBA’s policy rule points to benefit of further policy stimulus
The Weekly analyses the RBA’s macro-econometric model.
Markets Today: Taking stock on a no-bad news day
There’s a little positive sentiment pushing shares higher again today and helping the US dollar gain on the Yen and Swiss Franc.
Sustainable finance update: June 2020
A monthly look at the ESG debt markets from an Australasian perspective.
29 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Business View Podcast: 2020 in focus – leadership and resilience
Podcast: How businesses can lead post COVID-19.
Podcast
Markets Today: Virus numbers cause concern
Rising infection rates in US southern states hit equities hard on Friday.
25 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q2 2020 (Part 1)
Wellbeing up as restrictions ease, but inequality remains. Young men the loneliest in Australia.
Insight
Markets Today: Easing Volcker
The easing of banks’ investment rules contained in the so-called ‘Volcker Rule’ has helped to boost stocks.
US Economic Update – June 2020
May rebound, but virus spread a risk.
Insight
NAB Economics Data Insights, 20 June 2020
NAB’s consumption spending index points to a levelling off in spending.
Insight
Markets Today: COVID-19 woes, forecast downgrades & oil concerns
Markets have been hit with a triple whammy – disturbing COVID-19 numbers emerging from the United States, a worse than expected downgrade to global growth forecasts and a big rise in oil inventories.
Markets Today: PMIs boosts sentiment
There’s a lot of positive sentiment again today, with US equities on the up and the NASDAQ reaching a new high.
Australian Markets Weekly: Experimental high-frequency indicator to track economic recovery
We’ve constructed an experimental summary index based on the common trend in a range of a mix of daily and weekly private-sector and official statistics
Markets Today: PMIs to help show shape of the recovery
In a day that’s been light on news, markets have had a chance to take a more positive outlook, pushing equities higher and the US dollar lower.
22 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Markets torn
Last week was a choppy week as markets tried to balance out positive economic news against rising concerns about COVID-19 infections.
Markets Today: Back to work but not for everyone
Markets continue to be jittery, with news of reopenings offset by concern over rising infection rates.
18 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Investors rush to COVID-19 social bond market
New COVID-19 social bonds have been met with overwhelming support from investors, leading to rapid growth in the sustainable debt market and a welcome outperformance, experts told a NAB Roundtable.
Markets Today: How many jobs will go?
Australia’s latest unemployment numbers are out this morning and the rate is expected to rise.
Markets Today: US retail bounce; Trump’s next trillion
Market sentiment is higher again this morning from a surprise rebound in US retail sales, coupled with talk of a $1 trillion infrastructure program from the Trump administration.
Australian Markets Weekly: Initial v-shape recovery
Tracking Australia’s recovery through high-frequency data.
Markets Today: Fed goes further
Globally equities had been dampened on Monday morning but equities are back on the rise in the US.
China’s economy at a glance – June 2020
Suppliers are still searching for demand.
Insight
15 June 2020- Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: The impact of lockdown easing
The markets lost a chunk of optimism last week.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020
Extremely large falls in Q2 GDP for many advanced and emerging economies are likely, while in Australia we expect a large fall of around 8.5% in Q2, following the 0.3% decline in Q1.
The AUD in May 2020
After a solid April, the AUD/USD began May with some trepidation dipping below the 64 cents mark a few times early in the month
Markets Today: investors run for cover
There’s been a swift move to bonds and safe haven currencies since the Fed’s message yesterday that it would take a couple of years at least for life to return to normal.
11 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020
The trend improvement in consumption-based spending remains positive, but NAB’s latest data read suggests it may be levelling off and even slowing a little.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: June 2020
Long climb back to ‘normal’ levels of global activity has started.
Insight
Markets Today: Fed not pulling back till 2022
The US Fed has reiterated that they will do whatever it takes to protect the US economy, with inflation expected to remain below 2 percent through to 2022.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2020
Trends across commodity markets were mixed in May.
Insight
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: May 2020
The Australian retail sector is facing extreme volatility amid a cycle of panic-buying, shutdown and now staged reopening.
Podcast
The Forward View – Australia: June 2020
A small fall in GDP in Q1 expected to be followed by a very large fall in Q2 – followed by an extended period of recovery.
Podcast
Australian Markets Weekly: PBO’s budget outlook
The Weekly looks at the Parliamentary Budget Office’s estimates of the impact of the virus on the budget. Plus, the Government’s recently announced housing subsidy.
Markets Today: Easing off the peddle
The rally in equities has stalled for now – except for the NASDAQ.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2020
Business conditions saw a broad-based improvement in the month but remain deeply negative – at a level last seen coming out of the GFC.
Podcast
Markets Today: Is the US bouncing back sooner than expected?
Equity markets continue to rise and the US dollar continues to weaken with increasing risk-on sentiment.
Markets Today: ECB extends its shopping spree
The ECB announced it will extend its bond buying program by a further €600b.
4 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The New Payments Platform: two years on
Our latest transaction insights paper looks at the journey of the New Payments Platform (NPP), Australia’s domestic payment clearing and settlement infrastructure launched two years ago.
China Economic Update: June 2020
Modest Chinese stimulus highlights competing policy objectives.
Insight
Markets Today: The recession we only just had to have
Australia has entered a recession but, as Josh Frydenberg was quick to point out yesterday, the Q1 fall in GDP was miniscule compared to most of the rest of the world.
Australian Economic Update: Q1 GDP 2020
GDP declines on early COVID-19 impacts.
Insight
Markets Today: Aussie rises further
It’s all good news as far as the markets are concerned, pushing the Aussie dollar even higher.
Australian Markets Weekly: the main questions asked about the Australian economy
This week, we thought it might be interesting to discuss the most common questions we are getting asked by businesses and investors on the outlook for the Australian economy.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – April 2020
NAB Online Retail Sales Index rapid growth accelerated again in April
Insight
Markets Today: The rise and rise of the Aussie dollar
The Australian dollar has climbed even higher this morning, reaching 68 US cents.
1 June 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Australian GDP Preview: Q1 2020
The calm before the storm.
Markets Today: Less shock, more ore
We’re seeing iron ore prices rise largely because of concerns over supply from Brazil.
Sustainable finance update: May 2020
A look at the Australasian ESG debt markets during the last month.
Markets Today: Optimism knocked back by Trump announcement
US equities continued to rally as investors looked for signs the economy would be getting back on track. But then …
NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020
The overall trend in consumption spending continues to improve, but in 4-week moving average terms is down 7.8% over the same time last year and 5.8% since the start of 2020.
Insight
28 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster unpacks the latest consumption data and the results are encouraging.
Podcast
Business View Podcast: 2020 in focus – the road ahead
New podcast: NAB CEO and Group Chief Economist on how Australia will rise again.
Podcast
Markets Today: China goes cold on Aussie coal
The Australian dollar has lost ground as China threatened to ban imports of Australian coal.
Markets Today: Markets catch reopening fever
There’s a strong risk-on mood in the markets this morning.
US Economic Update – May 2020
April crash, tentative recovery in May.
Australian Markets Weekly: Scope for additional stimulus
Budget revision provides scope for additional stimulus to shore up recovery.
Markets Today: Equities rebound despite “new cold war”
Equities have staged a broad-based rebound and are expected to continue as markets reopen in the US and UK.
Podcast
25 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Hong Kong returns to pre-COVID protests
The unrest in Hong Kong is likely to impact the Australian dollar.
Markets Today: Equities hit by China’s clashes with the US
Market sentiment was tempered somewhat by rising rhetoric between the US and China.
21 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Markets accentuate the positive
It’s been another positive session, driving equities higher and giving another boost to the Australian dollar.
Australian credit markets send a positive signal
The longest period of bond market disruption since the GFC appears to be ending.
Markets Today: Taking a deep breath
Markets have controlled their excitement after the burst of optimism over a potential COVID-19 vaccine.
18 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Australian Markets Weekly: measuring spare capacity
Measuring spare capacity amid an exodus from the workforce.
Markets Today: Markets go vaccine crazy
There’s been big increases in equity markets and bond yields on news of a successful stage one vaccine trial in the US.
Markets Today: Back to work & back to the trade war
The US President has said the US needs to get back to work, vaccine or not.
China’s economy at a glance – May 2020
The latest economic data from China continues to highlight some challenges in its recovery phase.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: May 2020
We have revised down our forecasts for global GDP and now expect -3.8% in 2020, while we expect Australian GDP to fall by 8.5%.
Markets Today: Job woes, US tensions & China’s rebound
The US and Australia have both reported dour job numbers, although markets were braced to expect it.
14 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020
Large falls in consumption-based spending although the pace of decline looks to have stabilised. However business payment inflows have weakened further.
Insight
The Forward View – Global: May 2020
A massive contraction in global activity has occurred due to COVID-19.
Markets Today: Powell’s negative tone talks down markets
The Fed’s Governor Jerome Powell took a very sombre tone about the response to the COVID-19 crisis.
The Forward View – Australia: May 2020
Our forecasts are broadly unchanged – we still expect a fall of 8.5% in GDP in H1 2020 before a rebound in growth in Q4.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: April 2020
Our data mapping suggests that the ABS retail trade measure will fall 5.3% in April.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020
Commodity prices generally fell in April – with particularly steep falls in oil and LNG markets, along with declines in iron ore and coal.
Markets Today: Markets worried over longer lockdowns
There’s been a swift reversal in sentiment.
Australian Markets Weekly: weakest population growth in a century as Australia closed its border
Lower net overseas migration should see Australia’s population growth more than halve to 0.7% in 2020-21.
Markets Today: AUD falls despite continued recovery hopes
When we’ve had positive risk sentiment in the past we’ve tended to see a stronger Aussie dollar but that’s not the case today.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2020
Business confidence remains very weak despite a rebound in the month.
Insight
China Economic Update: May 2020
Export channels offer little opportunity as China attempts to recover.
Markets Today: Markets ignore 20.5 million US job losses
The non-farm payrolls data on Friday showed 20.5 million new job losses in one month in the US and yet equities rose
NAB SME Bushfire Impact Survey: Part 2
Uncovering the business impact of the bushfires through the eyes of over 500 Australian SMEs.
Markets Today: Fed fund futures turn negative
Future contracts for Fed funds turned negative for the first time.
7 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Markets Today: Lifting lockdowns but the debt remains
Two questions remain over the COVID-19 crisis: when is it safe to lift lockdowns and what will the debt-impact be on the economy?
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2020
The NAB Commercial Property Index fell 8 points to a below average 0 in the March quarter.
Markets Today: Germany’s judges challenge ECB
The Euro and Italian bonds took a hit with German judges challenging the ECB on its QE activity.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – March 2020
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that the rebound in online spend continued in March, with a large jump in sales.
Australian Markets Weekly: Australia to ease containment restrictions
A timetable for the relaxation of measures is expected to be unveiled on Friday when the National Cabinet of Australia meets.
Markets Today: Airlines take a beating; German judges to rule on QE
Airline stocks have taken a heavy hit after Warren Buffet’s decision to bail out at the weekend.
4 May 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
The AUD in April 2020
April was a very rewarding month for the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: Bad start to a potentially rocky month
May got off to a bad start on Friday with falls in equities and the Aussie dollar the worst currency on the day.
Markets Today: Month-end; fewer jobs
Month-end has seen a broad sell-off of the US dollar.
US Economic Update – April 2020
Q1 GDP falls as US goes into recession
NAB Economics Data Insights, April 2020
Impacts of Coronavirus on consumption based spending and business payment inflows.
Insight
30 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Sustainable finance update: April 2020
A monthly look at the Australasian ESG debt markets.
Markets Today: Fed hints for more fiscal support
Fed warns of considerable medium-term risk.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar pushing ahead
The Aussie dollar has been steadily rising, now around 65 US cents.
Private View Podcast: global shock, local impact
Listen to new podcast: COVID-19 investment trends.
Podcast
28 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Australian Markets Weekly: assessing monetary policy
Easier monetary policy should be helpful in supporting the economy as activity rebounds later this year.
Markets Today: Markets dreaming of post lockdown utopia
Again, it seems markets are ignoring the bad data of which there’s plenty.
Markets Today: Markets not entirely convinced on the V
There’s still talk of a v-shaped recovery in the US.
NAB Economics Update Webinar
Co-hosted by Biljana Nikolova - Customer Executive, Government, Education and Community and Shamal Dass - Head of Philanthropic Services, JBWere, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy; and Daniel Farrell - Associate Director, Rates, Global Markets shares his view on interest rate risk management.
Webinar
E-commerce in COVID-19
E-commerce has been impacting the sales of bricks-and-mortar for years but the arrival of COVID-19 has accelerated changes in shopping behaviour.
State Economic Handbook: April 2020
No state or territory will be spared from COVID-19 economic fall-out.
Markets Today: Bad news abounds but markets are positive
US unemployment registrations have added another 4.4 million, European PMIs hit record lows and the EU failed to reach an agreement on how to fund a recovery package for Europe.
China Economic Update: April 2020
Shutdown and restart – will China’s consumers return to support growth?
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q1 2020 (Part 2)
Financial anxiety rises again in Q1 2020 and 4 in 10 Australians experience some form of financial stress or hardship.
23 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
Podcast
Cash management in a crisis
COVID-19 has placed significant pressure on corporates and implicated their operations. Efficient cash management and adequate liquidity is one of the key principles to ensure survival.
Markets Today: Shares rise, oil calmer & EU prepares next steps
Oil prices have recovered somewhat and equities have risen again.
Markets Today: Oil rout spills over
Oil rout sours risk sentiment across the board.
Australian Markets Weekly: record peace-time budget deficit
The instant recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic has seen an unprecedented easing of both monetary and fiscal policy.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2020
NAB cashless retail sales data for March shows wild swings across industries in response to the Coronavirus crisis.
Markets Today: oil prices fall heavily into negative territory
WTI lurched into negative territory with a vengeance.
20 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about China's latest GDP, and the medium to long term impacts of the Coronavirus. Listen now.
China’s economy at a glance – April 2020
China’s economy sharply contracted in Q1; weakest growth in over forty years in 2020.
Markets Today: Signs of a China bounce-back adds to optimism
Industrial production numbers from China on Friday gave investors hope.
NAB Economics Update Webinar
Hosted by Greg Morris - Customer Executive, NAB Private, and Kate Galvin - Customer Executive, NAB Health, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy.
Webinar
NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020
The global economy is in a deep recession due to the rapid and widespread escalation in Covid-19 containment measures since mid-March. While the domestic economy is now expected to see a contraction of an unprecedented speed and magnitude.
Markets Today: More US jobless
Another 5.2 million jobless in the US.
16 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest labour force figures, inflation, and the impact of Coronavirus on net migration. Listen now.
Podcast
The Forward View – Global: April 2020
Global economy in its worst post-WW2 recession, recovery timing uncertain.
Markets Today: Markets might’ve overaccentuated the positive
March data out of the US is bad and the share market has taken it badly.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: April 2020
Overall, the global economic outlook has deteriorated since last month, with the downturn expected to far exceed the Global Financial Crisis.
The Forward View – Australia: April 2020
Unprecedented sharp recession coming as a result of COVID-19. Sharp deterioration in employment and prolonged high unemployment.
Insight
Markets Today: V-shaped optimism drives shares higher
Australia joined the bull run in the share market yesterday, clocking up 20.7 percent growth since March 23.
Australian Markets Weekly: lessons from past recessions & depressions
Read the findings of our analysis of past depressions and recessions in Australia.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: March 2020
Business confidence saw its largest decline on record and is now at its weakest level in the history of the NAB Monthly Business Survey.
Article
Remote working: security & efficiency for corporate finance teams
Large sections of the Australian economy are now working from home or in remote locations. Corporate Australia has had to quickly shift operational processes and adjust to new work from home arrangements, many for the first time.
Markets Today: Buying credit and cutting oil
The US Fed has extended its QE shopping list, agreeing to buy junk bonds from corporations suffering the impacts of the coronavirus.
9 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the JobKeeper package passed yesterday, unemployment forcasts and how industries are faring. Listen now.
Podcast
Social distancing – cash alternatives
The implementation of social distancing has meant some businesses are reviewing their customer interactions at the point of payment.
Markets Today: EU fiddles whilst equities rise
There’s more optimism today that countries are reaching the peak of COVID-19, which is pushing US equities higher.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q1 2020
Australian wellbeing levels have fallen to survey low levels as anxiety climbs in response to rapid daily life changes due to Coronavirus.
Markets Today: Equities rise as Europe’s curves flatten
Optimism is being driven by the infection and fatality curves for COVID-19 in Europe and the US.
Australian Markets Weekly: OECD estimates of substantial economic cost of containment
The OECD has estimated the direct economic cost of containment measures is substantial, with shutdown resulting in a 20-25% fall in real GDP, across the advanced economies.
Markets Today: Monumental hope from markets
Equities have bounced back in a big way on hope that countries will start to ease restrictions and get more people back to work.
6 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about our future GDP and the impact on different industries Listen now.
Podcast
Corporate borrowers cautious as markets see-saw
With public debt markets in flux due to the spread of COVID-19, patience is the watchword for Australian borrowers in private capital markets.
Markets Today: Are we turning a very long & slow corner?
Hope is a rare commodity these days – unlike oil.
Markets Today: Oil talk and jobless surge
Oil shot up in price overnight.
2 April 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the JobKeeper package and unemployment forecasts. Listen now.
Podcast
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2020
Confidence deteriorates on the early impact of Covid-19.
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – February 2020
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that there was a rebound in online spend in February.
Ecommerce and the card processing environment today
Our latest transaction insights paper includes recommendations for managing credit card rejections and provides clarity on the credit card authorisation process.
Markets Today: Bad start to the quarter
The quarter has started with big falls again on equity markets and lower Treasury yields, whilst oil prices continue to be driven downwards.
The AUD in March 2020
The AUD/USD collapsed in March to its lowest levels since 2003. Read our summary of what impacted the course of the AUD/USD during the month.
Markets Today: US & Europe – two sides of the same coin
Equities in Europe are on the rise. Equities in the US are on the slide.
Australian Markets Weekly: pandemic crunches labour demand & supply
Australia has entered a deep recession and unemployment could soon reach 12%, a level surpassed only by the depressions of the 1890s and 1930s
Markets Today: See you on the other side
Scott Morrison’s job retention program helped equities yesterday but doesn’t explain the rise in the US and Europe.
30 March 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the short and longer term impacts of Coronavirus on the economy. Listen now.
Podcast
COVID-19 frauds & scams
All businesses need to be aware of how criminals may use the current crisis to target businesses.
Insight
Markets Today: Hibernation, but for how long?
Other parts of the world are getting ready for a lockdown that could last a few months.
China Economic Update: 27 March 2020
Back in business? China attempts to restart its economy after Covid-19 shutdown
Markets Today: US equities rise on stimulus
US equities rose sharply overnight despite the news unemployment claims in the US have risen to 3.2 million for the week to March 21.
Markets Today: Flying blind, destination unknown
Equities are on the rise in the US and Europe.
Markets Today: brief respite on hopes of US stimulus deal
Markets reversed a little overnight with US and European equities rising.
Markets Today: Unlimited QE
The US Fed announces unlimited QE.
Australian Markets Weekly: The economics of a pandemic
Insights from the Kennedy paper.
US Economic Update – March 2020
The US economy is undergoing a severe contraction.
Markets Today: Lockdowns adding to market turmoil
It’s likely prices will fall further as more countries and regions go into lockdown.
Markets Today: what’s driving today’s sea of green?
Oil has shot up in price, with equities rising too and there’s a bit more interest in government bonds.
Markets Today: Another day of extremes
Big falls in equities and oil, as well as widespread selling of government bonds, even gold is being ditched.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: February 2020
Our forecast points to a substantial rise in the ABS retail sales measure in February (+0.6% m/m), but there is very little to celebrate.
Market’s today: Aussie’s new low & US ‘Helicopter’ money
The Aussie dollar has fallen below the post GFC low.
Markets Today: another black day
Despite extreme measures by the Fed yesterday and the return of QE, markets were far from impressed.
China Economic Update: March 2020
Data highlights the huge toll of Coronavirus countermeasures.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020
We've significantly lowered our global growth forecasts, and in Australia growth slowed confirming a below-trend pace of growth prior to any virus impact.
Markets Today: RBNZ latest to cut in global moves
The RBNZ has slashed rates this morning to a quarter percent.
Payables fraud – a growing problem in Australia
Fraud threats to organisations are becoming increasingly sophisticated and targeted.
NAB’S View on fiscal policy: March 2020
Fiscal stimulus to support near-term growth, with more likely to come in the May Federal Budget.
Markets Today: Markets in turmoil
Markets are in free fall as containment measures impact heavily on business.
The Forward View – Global: March 2020
World growth to be hit hard in H1 2020 – at least – due to Coronavirus.
Markets Today: pandemic & an emergency cut
The Bank of England and UK government launched a coordinated approach on tackling COVID-19 headwinds, with an emergency rate cut and fresh fiscal stimulus.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2020
Commodity markets generally remain volatile, reflecting the uncertainty presented by the Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak.
The Forward View – Australia: March 2020
Soft Economy likely to be hard hit by COVID-19. Outlook heavily dependent on severity and how long disruption effects of the virus last.
Markets Today: waiting on stimulus news
Markets have bounced back a little even though the battle over oil seems to be getting worse.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2020
Confidence heads lower and Conditions now neutral.
NAB change in policy view: March 2020
RBA to soon undertake yield curve control, reinforcing fiscal stimulus.
Australian Markets Weekly: RBA to soon undertake yield curve control, reinforcing fiscal stimulus
NAB continues to expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.25% in April.
Markets Today: Oil plunge sparks Black Monday
There has been a massive fall in oil prices.
Markets Today: Oil price battle will add to volatility
The rush to bonds continued on Friday, hitting new lows for Treasury yields, even as equities in the US saw a last-minute push and actually finished the week up a little.
Markets Today: And back to the safe havens
Markets have switched back to risk-off mood.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – January 2020
Our data indicates that there was a contraction in online retail sales spend in January relative to December.
The AUD in February 2020
Intensification of concerns about the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus culminated in new 11-year lows for AUD/USD at 0.6435 on the last day of the month.
Australian Economic Update: Q4 GDP 2019
A moderate outcome pre COVID-19.
Markets Today: Markets rest hope on government stimulus
Equities and the US dollar have bounced back even if bond yields remain low.
NAB Change In FED Funds Rate Call – March 2020
Fed to further cut rates at its March and April meetings.
Building the infrastructure for the war on waste
Extracting maximum use from products and resources, by recycling and reusing as much as possible, will help move Australia closer to a circular economy that minimises waste.
Markets Today: Fed emergency cut doesn’t halt the carnage
The US Fed dropped interest rates by 50 basis points in an emergency cut.
Australian Markets Weekly: Coronavirus & the Australian economy
Markets are now monitoring the spread of coronavirus outside China.
Markets Today: RBA ready to cut; G7 phone call helps markets
Central bankers and finance ministers are hooking-up on a conference call later today to discuss a coordinated response to the impact of the coronavirus.
NAB Change to Rate Call – March 2020
RBA to cut in March and again in April.
Markets Today: China’s manufacturing crumbles
Friday marked a bad end to a tumultuous week for the markets, with equities, commodities and bond yields all hit hard.
Australian GDP Preview: Q4 2019
A weak result ahead of the Coronavirus outbreak.
Markets Today: rout resumes on fears of the unknown
Thursday proved to be a very volatile day towards the end of a very volatile week.
Markets Today: Markets grab a short breather
The markets attempted a bit of a rebound earlier but it hasn’t lasted long.
US Economic Update – February 2020
US economy travelling well but Coronavirus clouds the outlook.
Markets Today: Further falls on virus news
Markets continue to respond to news reports highlighting the (admittedly slow) spread of COVID-19.
Australian Markets Weekly: indicators point to unemployment edging higher
We've constructed a leading index of unemployment based on the predictive power of a very large number of official and surveyed indicators.
Markets Today: Sharp moves as COVID-19 concern reaches fever pitch
The extent of the spread of the coronavirus in South Korea, Europe and numerous other countries, has driven a major fallout in markets overnight.
Markets Today: COVID-19 spreads further; core bond yields fall
There was a strong risk-off mood on Friday due to the spread of the COVID-19 infections and the impact it's having on the global economy.
Markets Today: COVID-19 jitters hit Asian currencies
Asian currencies have born the brunt of rising concerns over the spread of COVID-19 beyond the Chinese mainland.
Positive returns: how everyone wins from impact investing
Inspired to make a difference in these tough times? Impact investing may be the perfect vehicle.
Markets Today: markets do an about-turn
The markets have spun around again,with renewed optimism and not much lingering concern from Apple’s revenue warning yesterday.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: January 2020
Our forecast points to a moderate rise in the ABS retail sales measure in January (+0.2% m/m), following an underwhelming end to 2019.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q4 2019
Wellbeing declined in the final months of 2019, after rising throughout the first 3 quarters of last year.
Markets Today: Apple sparks concern over virus impact
Markets have returned to adopting a more cautious approach to the impact of COVID-19, after Apple said it didn’t expect to meet its forward guidance.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: Bushfires Special February 2020
Special survey on the second round impact of recent bushfires.
Australian Markets Weekly: RBA’s renewed focus on financial stability
The Reserve Bank has a renewed focus on financial stability, where the benefit of lower rates in achieving the inflation target and full employment is weighed against the longer-term risk of adding to already-high household debt.
Markets Today: Japan’s pre-virus nose-dive
Nobody was expecting anything other than a bad GDP read from Japan but it was worse than bad.
Markets Today: Markets latch on to falling infection rates
Markets are cautiously hoping the worst of the coronavirus is over.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2020
We have revised down our forecasts for global growth in 2020 to 3.0%. While in Australia we now expect a small negative for Q1 2020 growth.
Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits
The markets slipped momentarily into risk-off as the number of COVID-19 infections jumped in volume, but concern slipped back a little as it became clear that the way cases were being measured had changed.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q4 2019
The NAB Commercial Property Index increased 5 points to an above average +8 in Q4.
The Forward View – Global: February 2020
Coronavirus to deliver a shock to global growth.
Markets Today: Virus contagion eases, stocks hit new highs
The markets are continuing to discount the impact of the coronavirus.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2020
Commodity prices have generally retreated in early February in response to the Coronavirus outbreak in China.
The Forward View – Australia: February 2020
We have adjusted down 2020 GDP by 0.5% due to bushfires & Coronavirus impacts, but boosted for 2021. RBA forecasts a big stretch.
Markets Today: Powell talks shares down; Aussie rises
Trump tweeted as Jerome Powell spoke saying shares were falling the more he spoke.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2020
More of the same in early 2020.
Markets Today: Caution as China gets back to work
There seems to be hope of an early recovery to the impacts of the coronavirus.
Australian Markets Weekly: Modelling a China shock; more on potential coronavirus effect on Australia’s economy
We've analysed the impact of an assumed 1% shock to Chinese growth on Australia to estimate the potential impact of the virus coronavirus on Australia's economy.
Markets Today: virus concerns blitz strong US jobs report
Ordinarily these numbers would be a cause for optimism in the markets, yet concerns of the impact of the coronavirus are having the opposite impact.
Markets Today: China cuts tariffs, Aussie retail pushes rate cuts back
The sun continues to shine on the equity market with the S&P500 making a new record higher, +0.3% to 3,344.
Investors position for the megatrends of the future
NAB’s Fixed Income Beyond the Institutional Sector Summit looked at the trends that are likely to shape the way we live, work and interact for years to come.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – December 2019
Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.
Markets Today: Markets reading the numbers and preying on hope
As this week wears on the combination of more positive news is able to lift markets, even while the Coronavirus continues to show no signs of slowing down.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – December 2019
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that, while slowing slightly, growth continued in December.
China Economic Update: February 2020
China’s economy faces a host of challenges in the year of the rat.
Markets Today: And then the rebound, for now
Since Monday the markets have dived, then climbed back again.
Mutuals get a new option to finance growth
Recent changes in legislation will allow member-owned organisations to issue a new type of share- without changing their corporate structure.
Embracing innovation puts the ASX at the forefront of new technology
The ASX is moving to a blockchain-based system that will unlock efficiencies for the entire financial services industry.
Australian Markets Weekly: Travel ban points to larger coronavirus impact on Australian GDP
The government has introduced travel restrictions on arrivals from mainland China and advised Australians to avoid travelling to China because of the novel coronavirus.
Markets Today: US equities back
US equities bounced back today – perhaps because there wasn’t a lot of new news on the coronavirus but also because US ISM numbers exceeding expectations.
Markets Today: Australia paying price on virus concerns
The Australian dollar – and emerging markets more broadly – were hit by further concerns over the spread of the coronavirus.
Markets Today: Virus hits equities
Coronavirus continues to cause concerns, hitting all asset classes overnight, including US and European equities.
NAB Change to Rate Call – January 2020
RBA likely to stay on hold in February – with labour market conditions buying time. But cuts are still coming.
Markets Today: FOMC on hold; BoE go next
The least surprising news today is the decision by the FOMC to keep rates on hold in the US.
Markets Today: Markets rethink corona risk
US stocks have rebounded after a day when they were hit hard over concerns on the spread of the coronavirus.
Australian Markets Weekly: The case for a rate cut in February
The market has substantially reduced pricing for a February interest rate cut following the surprise improvement in the unemployment rate last week
NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2019
The final monthly business survey of 2019 provides further evidence that activity stabilised in Q4.
Top 10 ways technology and digital securities will change finance
A financial system that has taken centuries to evolve will change dramatically in the next few years.
Markets Today: Spreading virus extends risks
The Australian dollar has fallen more than one percent today as concern continues over the spread of the Corona virus.
US Economic Update – January 2020
Growth likely slowed in Q4.
Markets Today: RBA rate cut might be delayed
Markets push back the timing of a rate cut from the RBA.
Markets Today: Corona concerns & Trump targets Europe
US equity markets have regained composure but will news of a lockdown of the Wuhan district fan further volatility?
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2019
Our forecast points to a negative (-0.1% m/m) print for December, in line with our view that the strong November ABS print largely represented Christmas spending brought forward by expanded Black Friday sales.
Markets Today: Trump talks it up but US equities stall
Whilst President Trump was self-aggrandising at Davos, US equities stalled.
NAB FX Update: the early-year view of the AUD in 2020
Our Head of FX Research shares his views on how the AUD will perform against the USD in the first half of 2020 – listen now.
Markets Today: All Quiet until Trump Talks
The US was on holiday Monday so it’s been a quiet session all round.
Australian Markets Weekly: Estimating the probability of QE using market pricing & RBA forecasts
Calculating confidence intervals around cash rate futures pricing and the Reserve Bank's economic forecasts, we estimated an average probability of QE through to mid-2021 of about one-third.
Markets Today: Equities race higher on trade optimism
The rally in US equities continued at the end of the week, with the optimism spreading to Europe.
Life in the lucky country in 2020: Is Australia still a great place to live?
NAB’s annual pulse check of life in Australia confirms it is, with Australians in strong agreement that our country remains a great place to live.
China’s Economy at a Glance – January 2020
China’s ends 2019 in line with expectation.
Markets Today: Retail numbers push US equities even higher
US equities rose higher still on the back of the latest US retail numbers.
Investors taking action to support a sustainable economy
Investors are directing capital towards the projects and companies that will remain viable in the transition to a low-carbon economy, a major international conference was told.
Markets Today: new highs again for equities
Equities have posted further gains and new record highs.
Markets Today: Big beautiful monster of a deal day
The US and China will sign the phase one trade deal tonight.
Markets Today: China not a currency manipulator
There are reports the US Treasury Department will no-longer consider China a currency manipulator.
Australian Market’s Weekly: Australia’s bushfire tragedy
The social cost of the bushfire disaster has been immense, with no precise way to gauge the economic impact until official data becomes available.
The changing face of banking technology
In a rapidly evolving technology landscape, corporate finance teams have a range of options to improve efficiency, productivity and security with bank communication.
Markets Today: Are we set for a year of higher growth?
In our first podcast of 2020, Ray Attrill discusses the week’s economic news and the broader prospects for the year ahead.
Markets Today: Dazed and confused
We’re ending the week with risk sentiment at its best level of the year.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – November 2019
NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that volatility continues in sales, with a jump in November sales after contracting in October.
Markets Today: Give peace a chance
Markets have now largely unwound the risk-off moves that have occurred since Friday.
Markets Today: Better
It’s been a particularly bad 24 hours for the AUD (if you aren’t an Australian exporter, that is).
Markets Today: Breathe – 7 January 2020
Geopolitical tensions remain centre stage with markets clearly in wait-and-see mode.
The AUD in December 2019
December was a good month for risk assets and the AUD, as the US and China agreed on their much-awaited Phase 1 trade deal and key global economic data releases improved.
NAB Business Innovation Index 2019
Business innovation falters in Australia as the economy slows.
Markets Today: From uncertainty to positivity? The Year Ahead.
With renewed hopes for a Brexit deal and a truce at least on the US China dispute, could 2020 be a year of strong growth?
Markets Today: Good Aussie jobs numbers add to positive vibe
The AUD held its position after the better-than-expected Australian Labour numbers yesterday.
Markets Today: Slow day with steepening yields & softer pound
Not much movement in currencies or equities.
US Economic Update – December 2019
US-China deal reduces downside risks.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2019
Our forecast points to a solid ABS retail headline figure for November – the strongest result since February this year if it transpires.
China’s Economy at a Glance – December 2019
China’s industrial sector appears to have stabilised ahead of new trade deal.
Markets Today: Brexit risk returns
The pound took a hammering after Boris Johnson indicated the end of 2020 will be a firm deadline for Brexit, deal or no deal.
Markets Today: Are shares heading for a melt up?
There’s been feverish activity in equity markets over the last 24 hours as investors respond to the US-China trade deal and the removal of Brexit uncertainty (for now).
Australian Markets Weekly: Economic and fiscal outlook
The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) released today reveals downgrades to the economic outlook.
Markets Today: A double whammy – markets still cautious
Two of the biggest obstacles to global economic growth have seemingly been removed, or at least sidestepped for a while.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019
Unchanged forecasts for Australia with expected growth of 1.75% while across the globe we expect US growth to ease somewhat further and Japan’s economy is set to contract in Q4.
Markets Today: D-day for trade talks & UK government
Two significant deadlines today means, whatever happens, we can expect some volatility.
Why venture capital is more important than ever for investors
Venture capital is too important for investors to ignore as it occupies an increasingly large part of the global economy and provides opportunities not available elsewhere, experts told the 2019 Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia.
The Forward View – Global: December 2019
Amid conflicting trade signals, signs growth is stabilising
Markets Today: Aussie rises; Fed holds
The Fed has announced no moves on rates in the US, with no expectations for cuts in 2020.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: December 2019
Economic conditions in 2020 are expected to remain unfavourable for commodity markets.
The Forward View – Australia: December 2019
Private demand still “running on empty”. Broadly unchanged forecasts but concerns to the downside. Fiscal policy help unlikely.
Markets Today: More interest in trade deal than impeachment
The markets continue to ignore the US impeachment proceedings.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: November 2019
Business conditions tracked sideways in the month, and appear to have stabilised at low levels, after declining significantly between mid-2018 and 2019.
Markets Today: A quiet day
Markets have been calm overnight, in wait and see mode ahead of a series of more important events this week.
Australian Markets Weekly: Australia’s poor productivity performance
The Reserve Bank’s persistent overestimation of growth likely reflects not allowing for the decline in potential growth.
Markets Today: Good jobs news – bad for a trade deal?
Jobs numbers from the US on Friday were well above expectations and we saw a swift response in the markets.
Markets Today: Aussie retail slowdown, ongoing trade uncertainty and US jobs numbers to come
All eyes tonight will be on the US non-farm payrolls data.
Sustainability: The new economy
Customers and investors alike want companies to create a positive contribution to society, alongside profit.
Climate change to affect asset prices with little warning
Climate change is a long-term problem, but when it starts to affect asset prices it will happen very quickly, experts told the recent 2019 Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia.
Markets Today: Pound Rises, Oil Shoots Up, Trump Leaves Early
Oil has been the big mover overnight ahead of the OPEC summit.
NAB Change to Rate Call – December 2019
Little support from fiscal policy to see further cuts in February and June, with a move to QE in the second half of 2020 a real prospect.
Australian Economic Update: Q3 GDP 2019
Consumer growth slows further.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – October 2019
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that after two solid months of growth in August and September, online retail sales weakened in October.
Markets Today: President Out-Trumps Himself at NATO
President Trump has upset markets further today suggesting that the trade deal with China might be left till after the US election, a year away.
The AUD in November 2019
The AUD/USD drifted lower over November as progress towards achieving a Phase 1 US-China trade deal slowed, casting doubts on the likelihood of a deal in coming weeks.
Markets Today: Trump threatens more tariffs as China’s manufacturing grows, US slows
The markets were spooked overnight by threats of further tariffs from the US President if a trade resolution isn’t reached.
Australian Markets Weekly: Large and persistent RBA forecast misses on growth
The Reserve Bank anticipates a strong rebound in GDP growth, with annual growth accelerating from 1.4% currently to 3.1% by end-2021.
China Economic Update: December 2019
False frenzy – record Single’s Day sales don’t point to Chinese economic recovery.
Markets Today: RBA week, oil volatility, Merkel’s coalition in danger
It’s an important week for Australian markets, with a slew of data today, GDP released on Wednesday and the RBA meeting between them.
Australian GDP Preview: Q3 2019
Consumption growth remains weak.
Markets Today: China angry on US Hong Kong Bill, but will it impact the trade deal?
President Trump has signed the Hong Kong human rights act.
Markets Today: Markets positive on US data
For once US markets have been driven not by trade talks, but by hard numbers.
Super funds and listed companies can boost growth by working together
Listed companies and superannuation funds can lift returns and boost Australia’s economic growth if they work together, the recent 2019 Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia heard.
Markets Today: Lowe on QE; US equities up
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said QE wouldn’t happen in Australia until interest rates got down to 0.25%.
US Economic Update – November 2019
The waiting game - what's next for US-China “Phase One” trade deal?
Markets Today: Trade hope sends stocks high
The hope that something will happen soon between the US and china has sent US equities to new highs.
Australian Markets Weekly: Revisiting the odds of QE
The effective lower bound for the policy rate is negative, but the Reserve Bank only seems comfortable with a 0.25-0.5% floor for the cash rate.
Offshore wind: A European export going global
The offshore wind industry is booming, with 22GW of installed capacity worldwide and the first project planned for Australia.
Markets Today: New week, new hope
There was renewed hope a phase one trade deal could be reached between the US and China by Christmas.
Markets Today: Markets ignore impeachment
The markets anticipate the next development in the US-China trade talks.
Markets Today: Will Human Rights Bill scupper a trade deal?
Markets adopted a mild risk-off mood overnight.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2019
Our forecast points to a moderate improvement for retail in October, although this may be partly due to higher retail prices – as measured in our monthly business survey.
Markets Today: RBA considered a cut
The markets are still waiting for developments on the US China trade talks.
Connecting capital to opportunity: NAB in Japan
Janari Tonoike, head of NAB Japan Securities Limited, National Australia Bank’s (NAB) new Tokyo-based, wholly-owned subsidiary, showcases the long-standing relationship between Japan and Australia, and explains how the new entity can help investors and borrowers in both markets and beyond connect better in a challenging global business environment.
Markets Today: China uncertain, Boris boosted
Sterling has been the biggest mover as Boris Johnson pulls ahead in the polls.
Australian Markets Weekly: Household debt around Australia
Household debt is growing very slowly at present, up only 4% over the past year.
Markets Today: Markets living on high hope
US equities finished last week on new highs on the hope the phase one trade deal between the US and China is close.
Emerging lenders on the path to debt capital markets
In October 2019, National Australia Bank hosted a Round Table with emerging lenders to share their experiences on the journey to bank securitisation funding and beyond.
The AUD in October 2019
The AUD/USD rose during October on the back of improved global risk sentiment, courtesy of progress on US-China trade talks and Brexit developments.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2019
Hopes of a US-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement have lifted financial markets. While in Australia we've lowered our near-term forecast for growth.
China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019
Most of China’s indicators relatively weak year-on-year, however, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at the start of the October has made this harder to gauge.
Markets Today: AUD fall continues, bond yields down as trade delay persists
The Aussie dollar fell sharply yesterday on the back of disappointing jobs numbers, followed by weaker than anticipated activity data from China.
The Forward View – Global: November 2019
Near term growth prospects still weak, but potential trade deal offers some upside.
Markets Today: The Kiwi flies, Powell stands still
The NZ dollar saw the biggest currency move over the last 24 hours.
Creating opportunities: Corporate & Institutional Banking magazine
As the end of year approaches, we’d like to recognise how our corporate and institutional clients are making a difference, in Australia and around the world.
NAB Change to Rate Call – November 2019
Next RBA cut delayed to February 2020, with the risk of further cuts and QE by mid-2020 without fiscal stimulus.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: November 2019
NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 7.9% quarter on quarter in Q4 2019.
The Forward View – Australia: November 2019
Private demand still stalled. Broadly unchanged forecasts but slightly lower growth in the near term. Policy help delayed.
Markets Today: President talks but gives nothing away
The US President offered nothing new about where trade talks are at and the markets little moved.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019
Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.
Infrastructure special report: Australian Financial Review
The AFR takes an in-depth look at Australia’s infrastructure outlook.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q3 2019
Anxiety on the rise despite wellbeing hitting near record high.
Markets Today: Brexit pact boosts pound
Sterling bounced higher today, shortly after GDP figures showed the UK had narrowly missed a recession.
Australian Markets Weekly: Analysing corporate income and cash flow
Total income is growing strongly, led by a boom in mining profits as non-mining profits languish, while growth in disposable income is more measured.
Helping with the transition to a low-carbon economy
Financial institutions including NAB are working on a range of ways to support customers as the global economy faces challenges from climate change, a recent conference was told.
Markets Today: Simply irresistible
The fact Trump wasn’t entirely keen on giving up existing tariffs hasn’t stopped investors from pushing equity prices higher.
Building relationships in a region of opportunity
Now is an optimal time for Asian investors and contractors to explore Australia’s thriving infrastructure sector.
Markets Today: Stock market up big
Shares rose higher on further hope that trade talks with China will see a roll back in existing tariffs.
Markets Today: No time, no place, no momentum
Market sentiment has done a complete U-turn.
China Economic Update: November 2019
Trade truce – US and China reach an agreement, but trade outlook still uncertain.
Investors urge coordinated action on climate change
Investors are keen to understand how their portfolios are exposed to global risks from climate change and want more green and sustainable products to invest in, a recent conference heard.
Markets Today: High hopes & gentle turning point
With nothing concrete to go on, markets continue to factor-in optimism over the US-China trade talks.
Markets Today: Shocking shopping statistics
Yesterday’s retail numbers showed Australians are cutting back on their shopping habits.
Australian Markets Weekly: Business investment held back by machinery & equipment
Business investment is exceptionally weak at present, only slightly above the multi-decade low reached as a share of GDP in the early 1990s recession.
Markets Today: high on jobs growth
US equities hit new highs again on Friday.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – September 2019
After a weak mid-year period, online retail sales continued to grow in September, albeit at a more moderate pace than the significant growth rate recorded in August.
US Economic Update – October 2019
US growth has slowed, but remains solid.
Markets Today: Phase 2 deal unlikely
There’s a risk-off mood today.
Markets Today: Fed – cut and hold
The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates as expected.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2019
The NAB Commercial Property Index fell 4 points to +3 in Q3 2019, in line with its long-term average (+3).
China Economic Update: October 2019
Taking flight: China is changing the global tourism market.
Markets Today: Aussie CPI today, Fed tomorrow
Australia’s CPI read today and US GDP numbers tonight.
Australian Markets Weekly: Consumer sentiment, low interest rates & tax cuts
The Weekly explores the impact of interest rate cuts on consumer sentiment.
The surge in responsible investing
Why it might be time for you to put your portfolio under the ESG microscope.
Markets Today: US stocks flying high on hope
US stocks are on the rise as optimism for a trade deal intensifies.
NAB Independent Schools Survey 2019
Student wellbeing on the agenda for schools.
Markets Today: Fed easing, trade hopes rising, Brexit stalling
A rate cut is anticipated by the Fed and there’s further hope a phase one deal will be signed by the US and China.
Markets Today: pound hit by election hope
The pound weakened as Boris Johnson calls for an election on December 12th.
Markets Today: Au revoir Draghi, Bonjour UK election
Mario Draghi is preparing to chair his last ECB meeting, with no expectation he will move rates.
Cost vs. care: Patients reveal what really drives them
What patients want – prepare to be surprised.
Markets Today: Brexit Bill proceeds, then stops!
The market reaction has not been favourable to the latest Brexit events.
Australian Markets Weekly: How accomodative is Australian monetary policy?
With the cash rate at a record low of 0.75%, short-term interest rates broadly match the all-time low reached in the 1950s.
Markets Today: Brexit & tariff Déjà vu
Two familiar stories dominated the markets overnight.
China’s economy at a glance – October 2019
Trade war finally shows its impact on China, as industrial sector drags Q3 growth lower.
Markets Today: Brexit & US-China deal optimism
The pound has already weakened on the latest Brexit delay.
Markets Today: Brexit see-saw & Aussie employment bonus
The early market response to a new Brexit deal and Aussie employment numbers.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – September Quarter 2019
Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.
Turning global bonds into income for Aussie investors at Neuberger Berman
We helped Neuberger Berman set up Australia’s first listed investment trust focused on global fixed income, to turn global bonds into income for Aussie investors.
Markets Today: Brexit vibe is positive
The pound has risen again as negotiations continue into the night (again) over a Brexit deal.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: September 2019
This month’s result points to a further improvement in retail sales, albeit from a low base.
Markets Today: GBP higher on Brexit midnight mercy dash
The pound is riding higher on the back of optimism.
Australian Markets Weekly: Assessing “lower for longer” interest rates using RBA’s macro model
We used the MARTIN model to explore holding the cash rate at low levels for a longer period of time.
Markets Today: More talk before truce
There’s a little apprehension in the markets this morning because the US China trade deal might not be a done deal.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019
With growth having slowed in Q2 2019, there appears limited prospect of a turnaround in Q3 – given the relative weakness in business surveys, market expectations and the deteriorating global trade environment.
Markets Today: Double Deal – did the markets overreact?
The markets finished last week on a high.
More affordable and specialist homes
More Australians will be able to access affordable housing following a $2 billion commitment from NAB which will see more homes being built across the nation.
Markets Today: Two big slugs of positivity
US-China trade talks and Brexit negotiations both look like some sort of deal could be reached.
The Forward View – Global: October 2019
US opens new fronts in the trade war.
Markets Today: Markets respond to a glimmer of hope
There’s a risk on mood in the markets today.
The AUD in September
The downtrend in the AUD/USD took a pause in September, where the currency ended the month 0.3 cents higher than where it began.
Are we witnessing a decline in globalisation?
Three decades of stable economic growth, generated by widespread political and economic harmony, is in danger of being eroded by increasing political polarisation.
The Forward View – Australia: October 2019
Unchanged forecasts with low rates expected to persist.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2019
NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall significantly in Q4 2019.
Markets Today: Deals falling off the table
Even though trade talks are still going ahead between the US and China this week, what little hope of any sort of outcome, seems to be rapidly diminishing.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019
Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.
Markets Today: The waiting games – trade, Brexit & Syria
Markets are more preoccupied with the outcome of the US-China trade talks this week.
Australian Markets Weekly: Australia exports capital as non-mining business investment languishes
Across advanced economies, business investment has underwhelmed since the global financial crisis, contributing to weak productivity and lower potential growth.
Markets Today: Something for everyone
There was something for everyone in Friday night’s US employment report.
Markets Today: US Services sector slips & rate cut hopes rise
In the US the non-manufacturing ISM read came in a lot lower than expected.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – August 2019
Online retail rebounds after two weak months with the largest spend category Homewares and Appliances being a key contributor, although sales growth for this category has been relatively weak over the past year.
Markets Today: Q4 off to a bad start
It’s a sea of red for global equities and US bond yields.
State Economic Handbook: September 2019
The Australian economy grew by 1.4% over the year to the June 2019, its weakest growth since 2009.
Markets Today: RBA takes aim
The markets have reacted firmly to news from the RBA yesterday.
Becoming Australia’s most connected port: Port of Melbourne
With the help of some big thinking and timely funding, Port of Melbourne has gone from strength to strength as they meet the needs of a growing Australian economy.
Australian Markets Weekly: RBA preview & views from the UK & Europe
The RBA meets today and the market is 79% priced for a rate cut with 74% of economists surveyed also expecting a rate cut, including NAB.
Markets Today: Markets brush off yesterday’s news
US equities are on the rise as markets brush off concerns over the lack of progress on US China trade talks
Harnessing wind to power cities for the future: Pacific Hydro
Global renewable energy owner, operator and developer, Pacific Hydro partnered with NAB to realise its renewable energy vision.
Markets Today: US equity delisting threat
US equities felt the heat on Friday with news that the Trump administration was looking at new ways of limiting investment in China.
Markets Today: USD close to two year high
The US dollar index (DXY) reached over 99.3, close to a two-year high.
China Economic Update: September 2019
Pork shortfall to maintain higher inflation in the near term.
Markets Today: New trade hope
The markets reacted positively to indications from President Trump that a trade deal with China could be close.
The results are in: the two sides of healthcare thinking
What do your patients think about vital issues like chronic illness prevention and mental health? This survey uncovers some surprising facts.
Markets Today: Impeachment talk knocks markets
Impeachment proceedings against the US President has hit equities, bond yields and oil prices hard.
US Economic Update – September 2019
Economy tracking OK but trade & other headwinds will take their toll.
Australian Markets Weekly: unconventional monetary policy nears
The Government pushes for greater transparency as unconventional monetary policy nears.
Markets Today: will Lowe signal RBA rate cut?
RBA Governor Philip Lowe is talking in Armidale later today.
Ports: keeping the channels of global trade flowing
Treasury representatives from Associated British Ports, Peel Ports, NSW Ports and the Port of Tauranga recently met to explore and share their insights on the opportunities and challenges facing port owners and operators.
Markets Today: Trump pours cold water on trade hopes
Hopes of a quick resolution to the US China trade dispute seem as unlikely as ever.
NAB Change to Rate Call – September 2019 – Updated
RBA to cut in October and again in December, taking the cash rate to 0.5% by year's end.
Markets Today: Will jobless numbers push the RBA to cut sooner?
There’s rising expectation the RBA will cut interest rates at their next meeting.
Markets Today: Fed turns hawkish
The Federal Reserve cut rates but didn’t give a clear indication of further cuts or promise the return of QE.
Top 3 reasons companies amend their US Private Placements
Companies sometimes seek changes to covenants during the life of a 10 to 15-year note. In this article, we examine the issues that can prompt such a request.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: August 2019
This result points to a modest improvement in retail sales, albeit from a poor result last month.
Low rates a challenge for superannuation funds & members
The recent NAB Super Evolution conference considered the implications of low interest rates on investments and asset allocations, and how that could affect superannuation returns.
Markets Today: Oil slides as production returns
Oil prices fell sharply on news Saudi oil production will be back in full by the end of the month.
Australian Markets Weekly: Generational shift – an older workforce, a lower NAIRU
Unemployment has edged higher since earlier this year as strong employment growth has failed to keep pace with even stronger growth in the supply of labour.
China’s economy at a glance – September 2019
China’s industrial sector struggling ahead of the latest round of trade measures.
Markets Today: Saudi aftermath – winners & losers
Brent Crude rose 20 percent at the market open on Monday morning, the biggest single move since the invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
Real assets expensive but opportunities remain
Amid an expensive market and an uncertain global economy, fund managers are cautioning discipline, though there are opportunities for investors to look outside traditional markets and work on assets.
Commodity Watch- Crude Oil: Saudi Arabia Refinery Attack Impacts
Crude oil markets may tighten significantly following weaponised drone attacks on the world's largest oil refinery at Abqaiq on Saturday.
Markets Today: Oil attack hits supplies
Attacks on the world’s largest oil refinery has hit global supplies hard.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: September 2019
Global economic growth slowed further in Q2 2019. Major advanced economy (AE) GDP growth declined to its slowest pace since mid-2016.
Fewer, larger, more transparent super funds
The super sector will undergo changes in the next five years that will bring fewer and larger funds, more intrusive regulators and a sharp focus on returns and fees, says Martin Fahy, chief executive officer of the Association of Superannuation Funds Australia.
Markets Today: QE is back at the ECB
The ECB is to reintroduce quantitative easing.
The Forward View – Global: September 2019
Global growth slows further as trade disputes escalate…again.
Markets Today: Draghi’s (almost) last stand
A stimulus boost from the ECB is widely anticipated.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: September 2019
In US dollar terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 1.8% quarter on quarter in Q3 2019.
NAB Change to Rate Call – September 2019
Cash Rate to 0.5% by February; more stimulus by mid 2020 unless the Government steps in.
The Forward View – Australia: September 2019
Below-trend growth and low inflation still expected as downside risks build. We have inserted another rate cut(s) in early 2020.
Markets Today: Bond yields rising
Globally yields are on the rise again.
Major research centre finds a 17-year refinancing solution
A landmark PPP refinance meets the needs of investors for a low-risk investment as well as the needs of borrowers for longer-dated debt.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2019
Both business confidence and conditions declined in the month, with both now at +1 index point – well below long-run averages.
Australian Markets Weekly: High household debt likely weighs on consumer spending
The Reserve Bank believes the main domestic risk to the outlook is consumer spending.
Markets Today: Bonds sold off
Bond yields have paved down across the world, driven by a sell-off in German bunds.
Markets Today: Trade war impacts as ECB prepares to pull out the stops
US payrolls numbers disappointed a little on Friday and China’s trade numbers over the weekend demonstrated what impact the trade war is having.
Plant-based meat a big opportunity for agriculture sector
The looming generational change in agriculture will bring many development opportunities for the sector.
Markets Today: Talks back on, bonds sell off
There’s been big moves on equities and bonds today as talks between the US and China appear to be back on.
Markets Today: USD weaker on HK, UK & Italy’s positive news
The US dollar is weaker today on the back of positive developments in other parts of the world.
Australian Economic Update: Q2 GDP 2019
Private sector stalls.
Markets Today: US manufacturing shows cracks, Brexit delays & Aussie GDP today
Very soon it’s likely that the UK parliament will take the first step to delaying Brexit, allowing for yet more negotiating time with the EU.
Australian Markets Weekly: Is office market risk adequately priced?
Retail property conditions have been mixed given low wage growth and weak consumer demand.
Markets Today: Is a pre-Brexit election looming?
Boris Johnson stood outside No. 10 Downing Street earlier, saying he didn’t want an election before the Brexit deadline.
The AUD in August 2019
Offshore events dominated AUD movements in August as the US-China trade war escalated again and pressure for the Fed and other Central Banks to do more also increased.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – July 2019
Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates that sales growth was negative in July 2019, following on from an almost flat result in June.
Markets Today: New month, new tariffs, new uncertainty
In the US new tariffs on Chinese imports kicked in over the weekend,.
Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2019
Private sector weakness continues.
Markets Today: China’s olive branch supports risk-on mood
In the US, the dollar, equities and bond yields have all risen on the news that China would rather talk than retaliate.
Markets Today: proroguing to Brexit
UK politics has turned even more toxic with Prime Minister Boris Johnson suspending parliament from September 12, for five weeks.
Markets Today: Markets fall after yesterday’s false hope
Markets have taken a hit as much of yesterday’s optimism subsides.
NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey 2019: summary
Our 9th biennial survey – the only survey of its kind to examine hedging techniques of Australian super funds – captures their shifting priorities in this rapidly changing landscape.
Super funds ESG survey findings
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations are fast becoming incorporated into mainstream practice across all sectors of business.
Markets Today: trade war turnaround & Germany downturn
The markets have done a complete u-turn overnight on the back of positive news on the US China trade talks and some wins from the G7 summit, including proposals to reform WTO rules and a potential US Iran meeting.
Australia Markets Weekly: Global risks intensify
The main domestic risk to the outlook is the uncertainty around consumer spending.
Markets Today: trade war ratchets up
China’s official response to President Trump’s latest round of import tariffs sent markets into a spin on Friday.
US Economic Update – August 2019
More Fed cuts likely as trade headwinds strengthen.
Markets Today: US & Europe manufacturing weak
Markit PMIs show US manufacturing has contracted, whilst in Europe it remains in a slump but hasn’t fallen as far as anticipated.
Markets Today: A divided Fed & a failed bond auction
The FOMC minutes released highlight the divisions in the Fed at their last meeting.
Democratisation of the bond market
The bond market has long been opaque, with bonds traded in parcels far too large for the average investors, but what might a more accessible bond market look like?
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2019
We continue to see considerable disparities between retail sub-sectors. On a yearly basis, our data shows department stores, clothing and footwear going backwards, while household goods is barely in positive territory. Cafes, restaurants & takeaways are outperforming.
Markets Today: Markets retreat as Conte goes
The markets retreated from yesterday’s optimism.
Markets Today: USD, equities & bond yields rise
A wave of positivity seems to have hit the markets.
Australian Markets Weekly: RBA’s thoughts on Australian QE
The RBA sees Australian QE as unlikely in the near term. Read our analysis.
Markets Today: Germany to spend
The surprise news on Friday were reports that the German government might relax some of its spending rules to splash out and prevent a recession.
How technology will change the super sector
Technology has already revolutionised back offices at superannuation funds and wealth management businesses, and is soon to transform customer service as well.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019
The latest escalation in the US-China trade war has reverberated through financial markets. The policy response will be important - we now expect two further 25bp cuts in the fed funds rate this year. China is also likely to use policy measures to offset any tariff impact, including allowing further depreciation of its currency.
Markets Today: China’s retaliation & Europe’s big bazooka add to bond rally
An ECB Governing Council member suggests markets hadn’t priced in the extent of the stimulus measures coming next month.
FX podcast: revised AUD outlook
In this month’s FX Podcast, Ray Attrill and Phil Dobbie discuss NAB’s revised outlook for the AUD.
The Forward View – Global: August 2019
The latest escalation in the US-China trade war – with the US imposing a 10% tariff on most remaining China imports – has reverberated through financial markets.
Markets Today: Bond yields & equities dive
It’s far from a quiet day in markets.
China’s economy at a glance – August 2019
China’s economy is continuing to slow, even before the latest round of US tariffs (and China’s retaliation), meaning there’s further downside risk.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019
US dollar NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecasted to increase by 2.1% yoy in Q3 2019, however underlying trends remain highly mixed. Higher export prices for LNG and iron ore (despite more recent spot price falls) are the key contributors, while both thermal and metallurgical coal are weaker, as are most base metals.
The Forward View – Australia: August 2019
Below-trend growth and low inflation – another rate cut ahead.
Markets Today: Tariff delays bring swift response
There’s been a sharp turnaround in market sentiment as the US announced delays to the extra tariffs on Chinese imports for certain consumer-sensitive products.
Australian Markets Weekly: Mining investment poised for modest rebound
The RBA thinks the economy may be at a "gentle turning point" underpinned by their optimism for mining investment. The Weekly analyses.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019
We're seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month - business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don't point to an improvement in the near term.
The AUD in July 2019
After making a high of 0.7081 on July 19th it was pretty much one-way traffic south for AUD/USD from then until month end.
Markets Today: Argentina election shock & HK airport closure
There’s a continued risk-off mood in the markets today, not helped by protestors forcing the closure of Hong Kong Airport and a surprise defeat of Argentina’s President Macri in primary elections at the weekend.
Markets Today: Forecasts revised as trade tensions rise
The US President hinted that a resumption of trade talks with China wasn’t a done deal, adding uncertainty in an already shaky market.
Markets Today: China fixes whilst US fiddles
Are the markets more concerned about the relative strength of the Chinese currency than they are about tariffs?
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2019
Overall market sentiment lifted 9 points to +7 in Q2. It rose in all states (bar SA/NT), and was highest in VIC & NSW.
Markets Today: Germany & NZ send markets on a rollercoaster
It’s been a hectic 24 hours, with shares falling them climbing back, with bond yields doing the same.
Australian Markets Weekly: impact on inflation of housing downturn
The Weekly analyses the impact of the housing downturn on inflation.
Markets Today: China helps the bounce back
US stocks have bounced back and the US dollar has picked up against the Yen.
Markets Today: Market Frenzy on Chinese trade response
Markets continued in risk-off mood as China announced its response to President Trump’s threat of extended import tariffs.
China Economic Update: August 2019
How successful has China’s deleveraging program been in managing the country’s debt?
Markets Today: Market prices US-China trade escalation
There was a swift market reaction to President Trump’s announcement of further tariffs on imports from China
Markets Today: Trump goes all the way on China tariffs
A tweet from President Trump promising a 10% tariff on the remainder of imports from China has sent the markets into a tailspin.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – June 2019
Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates that sales growth was negative in June 2019, following on from strong growth in May.
Markets Today: Fed cuts as expected but markets still react
There was some short-term market reaction during Powell's press conference.
Markets Today: Fed decision, Aussie & European inflation, & the falling pound
Get ready for a busy 24 hours.
Markets Today: Hard Brexit or quick election?
The pound took another hit today, now at its lowest level since March 2017.
Australian Markets Weekly: The impact of the exchange rate on GDP
Our analysis suggests that the real exchange rate has more of an impact on growth than earlier RBA analysis.
Customer stewardship in social infrastructure
The Better Infrastructure Initiative recently launched a Customer Stewardship Roundtable series. Read the insights from the first event.
US Economic Update – July 2019
US economic growth slowed in Q2 2019 – will this trend continue? One implication is that the Fed will cut rates.
Markets Today: Stronger earnings, surprising GDP, no grand deal
The US finished on a high last week.
The aged care sector arrives at a tipping point
Could the aged care sector’s problems be drawing to a close, paving the way for consolidation and more capital investment?
Why you might need to rethink your fixed income strategy
It’s taken a while to gain momentum, but fixed income is starting to feature in high net worth portfolios in Australia, catching up with offshore peers.
Cashless customers are driving the future of payment
New payments trends and technologies are opening the door to better business.
Markets Today: Draghi ignores the freefall – for now
The latest IFO readings have shown a sharp downturn.
Markets Today: European manufacturing weakens
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs are well down, hitting a seven-year low in Germany.
Markets Today: China trade talks next week
US shares were doing well ahead of the news that trade talks would resume between the US and China next week.
Markets Today: Tying up loose ends before recess
The race is on to try and get through stuff before the summer recess in the US and Europe.
Australian Markets Weekly: The impact of higher interest rates on household cash flows
Reserve Bank research suggests that the two rate cuts to date will boost growth by 0.25-0.4pp over two years and lift inflation by only 0.1pp over two to three years.
Markets Today: Cuts out of context
There was a reversal of fortunes on Friday as the NY Fed clarified comments from their President John Williams the day before.
Markets Today: Heading for a half percent cut?
Could the Fed be careering to a half percent rate cut at the end of the month?
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – June Quarter 2019
Conditions ease further, while confidence increases.
Markets Today: A darker shade of beige
The Fed’s Beige Book is out this morning.
FX Podcast: FED likely to cut rates; what’s next for the AUD?
Ray Attrill discusses whats next for the AUD as it returns above 0.70 USD.
Markets Today: Mixed US data
US retail sales were strong but t’s not all good news.
Australian Markets Weekly: High household debt as a drag on spending
Recent RBA research shows that high mortgage debt is a drag on consumer spending, helping explain the weak growth in consumption since the global financial crisis.
Markets Today: China’s stimulus helps
China's industrial production numbers were far better than anticipated.
China’s economy at a glance – July 2019
Growth slowed in Q2 but policy support should see it stabilise.
Markets Today: China trade slows
China reported disappointing import numbers at the close on Friday.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019
Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q2 2019
Our sense of life worth improved and we ‘felt’ less worried about our finances in Q2.
Markets Today: rising inflation doesn’t budge Powell
Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t alter his stance despite signs of inflation picking up in the US.
The Forward View – Global: July 2019
Global growth remains under pressure even with US-China trade dispute pause.
Markets Today: Powell ignores payroll
Jerome Powell has sent the markets back to where they were before the non-farm payrolls data last week.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2019
NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index has been on the up in recent quarters, in large part due to iron ore prices.
The Forward View – Australia: July 2019
Forecasts unchanged – including key drivers of growth. Rate cuts to help but mainly in 2020. Fiscal stimulus impact small.
Maintaining balance & building a brighter future: Debt Capital Markets
Panelists at NAB's annual DCM conference discussed the ideal confluence of demand and supply in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, which is home to some of the worlds fastest growing economies.
Markets Today: Tariffs bite
Ray Attrill explains how the latest small business survey data in the US shows signs that tariffs on Chinese imports might be starting to make their mark.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2019
Confidence kick short-lived, conditions remain below average.
Australian Markets Weekly: Forward indicators point to a weaker labour market & lower rates
The RBA has cut the cash rate to 1%, arguing that lower rates are an effort to reduce unemployment and not a response to a deteriorating outlook.
Markets Today: Markets on hold
There were no big movements on US equities or bonds overnight, as markets wait to see what Jerome Powell has to say in his Congressional testimonies mid-week.
Markets Today: Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
The US payrolls data was stronger than expected on Friday.
Markets Today: Trade slow; yields lower
Trading has been thin as US markets closed for the 4th July holiday.
Markets Today: Record highs on equities; bond yields fall
US equities took an early mark on record highs, whilst bond yields fell further.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – May 2019
Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates a return to sales growth in May 2019, after considerable weakness in April.
Markets Today: Carney’s shipwreck
Global bond yields have fallen after BoE Governor Mark Carney warned of a shipwreck to the global economy if trade tensions intensify.
Integrating ESG in the insurance industry
NAB recently brought together a group of insurance professionals with ESG market experts and practitioners to explore risk, operations, reputational and investment issues.
Markets Today: RBA in Darwin adding heat to the economy
The RBA meets in Darwin today and is expected to cut interest rates.
Australian Markets Weekly: Tracking fruit & vege prices in the CPI
Fruit and vegetable prices are the two most volatile components of the CPI and can have a large effect on headline inflation.
AUD Annotated Chart: June 2019 and FY2018/19
June was another month of two halves for the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: G20 Boom Boom Pow? Unlikely
The markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Trump-Xi meeting at the weekend culminated in some sort of truce.
Markets Today: False hope on G20?
Markets seem to indicate a little optimism on the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 this weekend.
Markets Today: Bond yields bounce back
Will interest rates in the UK go up or down?
Markets Today: Record low yields in Europe
Risk adversity drives yields to record lows in Europe.
Markets Today: Trump warns Iran
Even an executive order declaring more sanctions against Iran did little to influence markets.
Australian Markets Weekly: boom in public spending keeps the economy afloat
Economic growth is slowing as public demand continues to be the main driver of GDP growth.
US Economic Update – June 2019
The Fed is close to cutting rates.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019
NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is expected to increase by 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q2 2019, a little stronger than anticipated in May.
Markets Today: glimmer of hope for Europe
European markets reacted to better than expected PMI numbers on Friday
Infrastructure financing – in for the long haul
Investing in infrastructure is a long-term trend that will continue to endure global economic challenges, generating healthy returns and diversification opportunities as investors enhance focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
Markets Today: After the Fed
The market continues to respond to the Dovish Fed statement yesterday with a rally in US equities, falls in Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar.
Asia’s growth unlocks value of new markets
The rising global stature of Asian investors and their search for fresh avenues to deploy their expanding wealth is aiding the growth of new markets.
NAB Change to Rate Call – June update
NAB fine-tunes timing of rate call: RBA to cut in July to 1%
Markets Today: The Fed, Lowe, BoJ & Bojo
The Fed has kept rates on hold but have kept the door wide open for future rate cuts.
Australian Markets Weekly: High frequency read on the economy
The federal election and lower expected interest rates have contributed to a rebound in business confidence- but not business conditions.
Markets Today: Draghi dovish; China talks hopeful
There’s been a lot of movement in equities and bonds.
A culture shift can help drive prosperity: Australian National Outlook 2019
Australia is at a crossroads and we face a stark choice – strive towards a more positive future of growth and prosperity or suffer a slow decline.
Cleaner, cheaper electricity: Australian National Outlook 2019
In a new CSIRO report, Australian energy productivity and low emission technologies offer affordable, reliable energy and create new opportunities and sources of comparative advantage if three key levers are implemented.
Managing our future landscapes: Australian National Outlook 2019
A report by CSIRO, NAB and 20 other organisations, draws on the latest scientific data and states that Australia is at a crossroads and faces a stark choice – strive towards a more positive future of growth and prosperity or suffer a slow decline.
Technology central to prosperity: Australian National Outlook 2019
There’s one factor above all others that can help lift a nation’s productivity growth and boost its prosperity and living standards according to a recent report by CSIRO, NAB and 20 other organisations. That factor is technology adoption.
How life in our cities will change: Australian National Outlook 2019
According to a new report by CSIRO, Australia will have well-connected, affordable capital and satellite cities that offer equal access to quality jobs, lifestyle amenities, education and health services if three levers are implemented.
Australian National Outlook 2019
The Australian National Outlook 2019 provides a compelling view about Australia’s future.
Markets Today: All eyes on Portugal, the Gulf & US
What picture will Mario Draghi paint of the European economy at the ECB forum today and what does he intend to do about it?
China’s economy at a glance – June 2019
Policy makers ready to stimulate as signs of weakness grow.
Markets Today: Lower inflation, yields & rates
There are rate meetings for the FOMC, Bank of Japan and Bank of England this week, as well as the ECB Forum opening in Portugal tonight.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2019
The Bigger Picture – A Global and Australian Economic Perspective – May 2019.
NAB Change to Rate Call – June
RBA to cut to 0.75% in November.
Strategic FX update: June 2019
In this month’s currency podcast, our Head of FX Strategy discusses some changes to NAB’s FX AUD forecasts.
Markets Today: Rate cut expectations rise; Gulf unrest grows
The Aussie dollar was the worst performing of the major currencies overnight following yesterday’s unemployment numbers.
Markets Today: Pipeline sanctions threat as Trump turns focus to Europe
News of President Trump threatening sanctions on Germany had an immediate impact on the Euro.
Australian Markets Weekly: RBA calls for government support to help reduce unemployment
Governor Lowe has said that reducing unemployment to the bank’s 4.5% estimate of the NAIRU should return inflation to the 2-3% target band.
The AUD in May 2019
The AUD/USD came under pressure in May, as renewed trade tensions saw the currency break through the 70-cent floor it had been testing since early February.
Markets Today: China’s stimulus boosts equities – for a bit
China is doing what it can to boost infrastructure investment.
China Economic Update: June 2019
Can China weaponise rare earths to open a new front in the trade war?
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2019
Confidence saw a post-election spike in May but conditions decline further with the private sector continuing to lose momentum.
Markets Today: Markets react to end of Mexican stand off
There’s a ‘risk on’ mood in the markets this morning after Friday’s u-turn by the US President over Mexican tariffs.
Markets Today: An optimistic ECB despite everything
The Euro rose today after the ECB spoke little of new measures to combat the economic downturn.
Markets Today: Too much oil, hope for Mexico and ECB on hold?
Markets are hopeful that a deal will be reached between the US and Mexico, and tariffs will be avoided.
Australian Economic Update: Q1 GDP 2019
Household weakness persists.
Markets Today: Powell’s balancing act; Lowe hints at more cuts
There’s been a sharp rise in US equities after comments from the Fed’s Jerome Powell, signalling rate cuts are likely.
Trade Headwinds: Gale Force Alert – June 2019
Trade risks realised.
Markets Today: RBA rate cut, Fed to follow
The RBA is expected to cut interest rates today, but more interesting will be what Philip Lowe says this evening.
Australian Markets Weekly: A new easing cycle, the effective lower bound, unconventional policy & forward guidance
The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate on Tuesday, with a follow-up cut expected in August.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – April 2019
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted -3.8% in April on a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis.
Markets Today: Trade battles drives further uncertainty
The market continues to adjust to the expectation that the US-China trade spat won’t disappear in a hurry.
Australian GDP Preview: Q1 2019
Prospects of another soft quarter.
Markets Today: Treasury yields fall further as rate cut expectations rise
Treasury yields have continued their downward direction indicating growing expectations for a Fed rate cut – possibly three.
Markets Today: More risk off, rate cut talk & downward revisions
How far do US stocks need to fall before the President takes note and tries to resolve the US-China dispute?
Mortgage lenders primed for growth
We invited Treasury representatives from four non-bank financial institutions and one UK-based asset manager – Liberty Financial, La Trobe Financial and Resimac Group in Australia and Kensington Group and TwentyFour Asset Management in the UK - to an International Round Table to discuss the opportunities and challenges in their respective mortgage and securitisation sectors.
Markets Today: Party for two
Consumer confidence in the US hit a six month high, yet there’s a continued flight to bonds, pushing Treasury yields to the lowest level since September 2017.
US Economic Update – May 2019
US-China trade dispute a headwind to growth.
Markets Today: EU election aftermath
There are repercussions being felt across the continent following the election.
Australian Markets Weekly: Co-ordinated policy easing from the RBA, govt & APRA
The RBA will be helped by looming personal income tax cuts and a relaxation of prudential regulations on mortgages.
Markets Today: EU votes, Tories squabble, Trump golfs
Markets calmed a great deal on Friday.
Markets Today: Cold war
There have been significant moves overnight, with the US dollar losing ground against the Yen and Swiss Franc.
Markets Today: FOMC patient, May stubborn, Trump determined
In the FOMC minutes the Fed reiterated its pledge to wait and see on interest rates.
Markets Today: Huawei on hold & Lowe goes lower
US equities have been boosted by a brief reprieve on Huawei trading restrictions.
Strategic FX update: May 2019
Join NAB's Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill as he sits down with Phil Dobbie to discuss his outlook for the FX market.
Markets Today: Will Powell and Lowe hint at rate cuts today?
Bond yields have risen slightly ahead of Jerome Powell’s talk today - will he give a strong hint a rate cut is coming? And will Philip Lowe from the RBA be doing the same?
Australian Markets Weekly: RBA to signal rate cuts, more evidence of spare capacity
Shock election result sees the unexpected re-election of the Coalition government
China Economic Update: May 2019
Looking for work: the health of China’s labour market is still hard to ascertain.
Markets Today: An election surprise
Following the Coalition’s surprise victory on Saturday night, we’re already seeing a rise in the Aussie dollar.
NAB Change to Rate Call – May 2019
RBA to cut in June with a risk it eventually cuts below 1%.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: May 2019
The Bigger Picture – A Global and Australian Economic Perspective – May 2019.
Markets Today: US against the rest
Overnight we saw rising US share indices and a strengthening dollar.
The Forward View – Global: May 2019
Trade worries overshadow tentative signs of activity stabilising.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q1 2019
While our sense of life worth, life satisfaction and happiness have all improved, we're feeling more anxious.
China’s economy at a glance – May 2019
Weaker economic trends even before trade tensions heat up again.
Markets Today: Markets buoyed by reports of auto tariff delay
US and European equities are up again on reports President Trump is delaying auto-tariffs due to kick in this weekend.
The Forward View – Australia: May 2019
With a weaker inflation outlook, rate cuts ahead.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2019
Reflecting the sustained strength in iron ore prices, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 0.4% qoq.
Markets Today: ‘Turnaround Tuesday’
In Europe they’ve nicknamed last night as 'Turnaround Tuesday as stocks regained much of their losses.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2019
Surprise jump in conditions last month was unwound this month – with business conditions, confidence and forward orders now all below average.
Australian Markets Weekly: Is employment feeling the effect of a weaker economy?
This week, the labour market dominates in Australia.
Markets Today: Markets hit as China bites back
Stocks, currencies, bonds and commodities have all felt the impact as China responds to US tariffs.
Markets Today: US China trade dispute intensifies
The US President has threatened further tariffs on China over the weekend, on top of those imposed on Friday.
Markets Today: Tariff deadline hours away
The imposition of tariffs by the US on Chinese imports is just hours away.
Markets Today: Markets resting on hope of a tariff delay
US equities have partially reversed their declines.
Infrastructure investments in Australia: Gearing up for the new normal
Australia offers Asian investors portfolio diversification in a stable economic and political environment.
Markets Today: No deals, no rate cut & little Euro-growth
US equities have been knocked again as increased tariffs from the US on Chinese imports are looking more likely than not.
Australian Markets Weekly: Persistently low inflation & structural unemployment
This week we’ve examined excess capacity in the labour market.
Markets Today: Will the RBA cut rates today?
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the RBA could cut interest rates today.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – March 2019
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index rebounded strongly in March with sales growth of 1.7% month-on-month, after one of its worst growth rates in the series history in February.
FX podcast – RBA Alert: AUD sub 70? Are you ready?
David De Garis discusses what to expect at tomorrow's RBA meeting.
Markets Today: US week-end tariff spat
The US President has been on Twitter in the last few hours threatening to lift tariffs on China by the end of the week
The AUD in April 2019
The AUD/USD traded in a range of just over 2 cents in April, with (very) brief and small-scale forays above and below the 0.70 to 0.72 range that had confined it since early February.
Markets Today: One day after the Fed
The market continues to react to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s ‘transitory’ remark on low inflation yesterday.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2019
Overall market sentiment (measured by NAB’s Commercial Property Index) fell 11 points to -2 in Q1 2019 - its first negative read in over 4 years.
Markets Today: Powell’s tightrope walk on inflation
Markets moved sharply during Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Markets Today: the world waits for the Fed
It’s less than a day before the FOMC meets and Jerome Powell talks to the press.
US Economic Update, April 2019
Q1 GDP – headline growth overstates strength, but still a good result.
Australian Markets Weekly: RBA – Inflation-targeting with low unemployment
The RBA’s central case of further progress in lowering both unemployment and inflation has been challenged by weak GDP growth and now weak underlying inflation.
Markets Today: US spending rises, inflation softer
It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours as markets wait for word from the Fed later in the week.
Markets Today: Soft in the centre
Friday’s headline US GDP numbers was surprisingly strong.
Markets Today: Is a RBA rate cut even more likely?
It’s been a dovish couple of days for central banks.
Markets Today: US equities ride high
Earnings results have pushed US equities to record highs.
Markets Today: US blanket ban on Iranian oil
The Trump administration announces an end to waivers for nations buying Iranian oil.
State Economic Handbook: April 2019
Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March Quarter 2019
Conditions continue to ease and confidence turns negative
Markets Today: What Chinese slowdown?
China delivered some more positive results in the last 24 hours.
China’s economy at a glance – April 2019
Credit surge keeps growth stable in Q1, but will the taps stay on?
Strategic FX update: April 2019
Join NAB's Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill as he sits down with Phil Dobbie to discuss the recent release of NAB's updated FX forecasts.
Markets Today: Credit where credit is due
The OECD suggests China’s stimulus measures may only offer short term benefits but the markets are happy to ignore the long term impacts.
The AUD in March 2019
The AUD/USD traded in a tight range of just 1.65 cents in March, the narrowest range since August 2014 and closed the month at 0.7096, essentially right back to where it started.
Green bonds reaching the mainstream
Sustainable bonds are appealing to a wider set of investors as the market develops, a recent conference was told.
Markets Today: US bank earnings disappoint
The week’s got off to a quiet start.
Australian Markets Weekly: The boom & bust in high-rise apartment construction
Australia recently experienced one of its largest booms on record in residential investment, driven by new construction as renovations to existing homes inexplicably languished. The Weekly analyses.
China Economic Update: April 2019
Crashing cars: how deleveraging has hit China’s automotive sector
Markets Today: China numbers boosts risk appetite
Last week finished on a positive note, sparked by a strong bounce back in credit growth in China, together with very strong export numbers.
Markets Today: Near half century low for US jobless claims
The US dollar was helped overnight with surprisingly low jobless claims numbers in the US.
Markets Today: Black hole brighter than May’s future?
What did the RBA’s Guy Debelle say yesterday to spur the Aussie dollar on so much?
Minerals & Energy Outlook: April 2019
In USD terms, NAB's Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 1.9% qoq in Q2 2019.
Markets Today: Caution ahead of a busy day
There’s certainly a more cautious mood today.
Australian Markets Weekly: How bad is the downturn in house prices?
The Weekly explores falling house prices – how do they compare with history and international experience?
Markets Today: All tomorrow’s parties
It’s been a quiet 24 hours that has seen stocks lose some of their gains of last week.
Markets Today: Goldilocks & the magic money tree
US non-farm payrolls data emed to indicate a Goldilocks economy – more jobs and with wages contained.
Markets Today: Waiting on the payroll
US payrolls data is out this evening (Australia time) and, unless something else is brewing, markets tend to tread water in anticipation.
Markets Today: Good things come in three?
There are three bits of news driving optimism in the markets.
Markets Today: Markets calmer; Aussie takes a hit
The markets are a lot calmer after yesterday’s rally in shares and sell-off of bonds. And the Kiwi and Aussie dollars have taken the biggest hit out of the major currencies.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Monthly Update – February 2019
It appears that broader weakness in retail is flowing through to online.
Markets Today: Soft parade
There was continued optimism in the markets overnight with more strong data reads from China and the US.
Australian Markets Weekly: The Budget, RBA, Election ….
This weekly investigates the divergence between weak GDP growth and the strong labour market.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: March 2019
Conditions rise while confidence continues a below average run.
Markets Today: China data brings fresh hope
China’s PMI numbers over the weekend were better than expected.
Enhanced yields from corporate bonds
High net worth and sophisticated investors are increasingly looking to corporate bonds as a way to preserve capital while delivering higher yields than cash or government bonds.
US Economic Update- March 2019
Still expecting a growth slowdown but no recession.
Markets Today: Drowning (Wo)Man
The UK Prime Minister will table her Withdrawal Agreement again tonight.
Airports: Balancing expansion needs with sustainability concerns
NAB recently invited Treasury representatives from Heathrow, Changi, Sydney, Brisbane and Auckland airports to a virtual Global Round Table to discuss the opportunities and challenges of rapid growth in passenger traffic.
Markets Today: Bonds run hot
A risk-off mood saw moves to US Treasuries with big falls in yields and shares.
Markets Today: Hope supports shares & the AUD
The US stock market has rebounded helping the Aussie dollar.
Markets Today: Going nowhere fast
The pound has suffered the most of the major currencies.
Australian Markets Weekly: Higher minimum wage unlikely to jolt overall wages out of low-growth rut
In this weekly, we've looked at low inflation, focusing on the role played by weak wage growth.
Is a slowdown coming Australia’s way?
After 27 years of steady economic growth – a record unmatched by any other developed economy – some are asking whether Australia is overdue for a recession.
Cracking housing affordability with a little help from a simple bond
A little innovation based on a big idea.
Markets Today: US recession talk & EU helps kick the can
The markets seem a little spooked with big falls in equities in the US on Friday.
Markets Today: May Day for UK hits Sterling
So what now for Brexit? Plus the marked reaction to yesterday’s Fed forecasts.
Markets Today: Fed loses its dots
The US Fed has revised its growth forecasts for this year and next, and removed all dot points for rate moves this year.
China Economic Update – March 2019
Add it up: the uncertainty around China’s economic data
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: February 2019
We forecast that ABS retail trade for February will grow for a second consecutive month, following a weak Christmas period and a subdued January ABS print.
Markets Today: Playing hardball
Media reports suggest China is playing hard ball in negotiations with the US.
Australian Markets Weekly: WA – only creeping progress likely for now
In this issue we delve further into the state of the WA economy.
Markets Today: May have to delay for another day
The markets are on-hold ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week.
Markets Today: Holding out for the FOMC & Brexit news
It’s a slow start to the trading week.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2019
The bigger picture – A global and Australian economic perspective.
Markets Today: A little bit longer
Why are the Aussie and New Zealand dollars amongst the worst performers overnight?
The Forward View – Global: March 2019
Growth slowdown continues; risks still to the downside
Markets Today: Goodbye to a no-deal Brexit
And signs that the European economy might be levelling off rather than falling.
The Forward View – Australia: March 2019
Slowing growth with rate cuts ahead.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2019
In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 3.1% qoq in Q1 2019.
Markets Today: May defeated, Boeing grounded
Boeing's share price has driven the Dow down whilst lower than expected inflation will have had a bit to do with bond prices today.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019
Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.
NAB Change to Rate Call – March 2019
Two cuts in 2019
Australian Markets Weekly: Diagnosing weakness in consumer spending
In this weekly, we explore the weakness in consumer spending, which helped drive the broader economic slowdown that took the RBA by surprise in the second half of last year.
Markets Today: Risk on as US retail sales bounce back
US stocks rose sharply following the release of US retail numbers which showed a bounce back in January.
Markets Today: Do the evolution
Friday saw quite a shocking miss on US non-farm payrolls.
Markets Today: Worry is all I can do
Markets have reacted swiftly to the latest ECB meeting.
Markets Today: Australia joins the downturn
Australia’s GDP numbers yesterday surprised many.
Australian Economic Update: Q4 GDP 2018
Household income and construction drag.
Markets Today: Service with a smile
It’s been a strong 24 hours for data releases.
Markets Today: Markets fizzle on false hope
Markets in the US and Asia buoyed by news that a deal between the US and China was close.
Australian Markets Weekly: Back in black – the return to surplus
The weekly looks at the turnaround in the budget where our analysis suggests the budget returned to surplus in the second half of 2018.
Markets Today: US data is bad but not Eurozone bad
The US saw some poor economic data on Friday yet bond yields rose as did equities.
The AUD in February 2019
The AUD/USD was conflicted in February, as improvements in risk sentiment and higher commodity prices pulled the currency higher, but a softer domestic economic outlook and a more dovish RBA acted as an offsetting force.
Australian GDP Preview: Q4 2018
Household sector weakness to persist.
Markets Today: Simply the best
Trump’s walkout of the meeting with Kim Jong Un dominated had little interest to the markets.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q4 2018
New NAB data reveals key factors for the wellbeing of small business owners.
Markets Today: EU doldrums, UK hope & China’s complication
Three pieces of news drove sentiment overnight.
US Economic Update – February 2019
The US economy appears to have slowed in the final quarter of 2018, and is expected to continue throughout much of 2019.
Customer stewardship & the institutional investor
Global investors are increasingly allocating funds to infrastructure and many investors are implementing new methods and measures to both adapt to and lead a stewardship mandate into infrastructure investment.
Markets Today: Powell’s adjustments, May’s delay
A boost for the pound and mixed data from the US.
Markets Today: China deal close & another vote on Brexit
There’s been significant progress on the two stories that have hindered markets this year.
Australian Markets Weekly: RBA – watching world, labour market & consumption
The RBA sees no interest rate rise as likely this year but an increase possible at some stage next year.
Markets Today: Average inflation & deal hopes
The markets were buoyed at the end of last week by hopes that some sort of trade deal with China was closer.
Markets Today: Rumoured coal blockade pushes Aussie down
Reports China is blocking the import of Australian coal into its Dalian port hit the Aussie dollar hard with no sign of recovery just yet.
Markets Today: Fed minutes, UK defections & Aussie jobs
Have the Fed clarified its position after an apparent U-turn at their last meeting?
China Economic Update – February 2019
Year of the Pig brings an uncertain outlook
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: January 2019
We forecast that ABS retail trade will return to growth – albeit modestly – in January 2019.
Markets Today: Rock steady
The US dollar is a little weaker this morning as the deadline for US tariffs on Chinese goods looms.
Markets Today: Here comes that rainy day feeling again
Markets are speculating whether the US will impose tariffs on car imports from Europe.
Australian Markets Weekly – The RBA confronts lower potential growth
The RBA has downgraded its outlook for growth, although history shows that the Bank has regularly overstated growth since the global financial crisis.
Markets Today: No shutdown, just an emergency (and a holiday)
Could Trump’s declaration of an emergency to fund his wall have consequences for the markets?
US Private Placement 2019 outlook
US private placements to stay a step ahead of the funding options pack for Australian corporate borrowers
NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2019
The bigger picture – A global and Australian economic perspective.
Markets Today: You’re in for a big surprise
Markets have been choppy on the back of surprisingly poor retail numbers from the US.
Markets Today: Kiwi spikes on less dovish RBNZ
The NZ dollar jumped 1.7 percent yesterday after the RBNZ indicated they weren’t expected to change rates till 2021.
Markets Today: Market optimism as deadlines pushed back
It’s looking likely the 1 March deadline for higher Chinese tariffs will be pushed back on the hope of progress on trade talks next month.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2019
Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was up 0.5% in December but down 1.1% in January.
Markets Today: Dirty laundry
The US dollar is now sitting at its strongest level of 2019 in DXY terms.
Australian Markets Weekly – inside housing
In this Weekly, we delve further into the ins and outs of the Australian housing sector.
Markets Today: Wall talk stumbles, Brexit can kicked further
Talks at averting another US government shutdown ended in deadlock at the weekend.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2019
Business conditions saw a moderate rebound in January after falling sharply in December.
NAB Change to Rate Call – February 2019
No increase for the foreseeable future - increased risk of cut.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q4 2018
Overall sentiment among property professionals increased marginally in the final quarter of 2018.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – December Quarter 2018
Business conditions continued to ease in Q4 and while they remain above average, forward looking indicators point to potential further weakness.
Markets Today: A way to go, for growth & a trade deal
It’s a sea of red for shares this morning. How much of this is down to Larry Kudlow’s comment that there’s a “pretty sizeable distance to go” before trade issues are resolved with China?
Markets Today: Lowe sends Aussie lower
Words from the RBA’s Governor Lowe send the Aussie dollar spiralling downward yesterday.
Markets Today: Waiting on address before deciding direction
Trading volumes have been lower ahead of President Trump’s State of Union address.
Markets Today: World on hold, except for Oz
It’s a significant day for Australian news, in a period where little else is driving markets in the rest of the world.
Australian Markets Weekly – Could the economy grow more quickly? Is progress at risk of becoming too slow?
In this Weekly, we take a closer look at the issues the RBA Board will face at its meeting tomorrow.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Quarterly Update: December 2018
Low wage growth, high personal debt levels and a weakening housing market – particularly in Sydney and Melbourne – have made consumers reluctant to spend on non-essentials.
Markets Today: Goldilocks is on her own
On the face of it, the US looks like it's enjoying a Goldilocks economy right now: there’s growth, employment is strong and inflation is low.
The AUD in January 2019
The AUD/USD traded in a larger than usual range in January.
Markets Today: stronger equities, weaker bond yields
The dovish tone set by the Fed yesterday has seen renewed vigour in the US equity markets helped by further strong earnings.
Markets Today: Fed more patient, UK parliament more unicorn
The Fed's stance has had a strong impact on markets in the immediate aftermath.
Creating a new project finance market for the war on waste
As more local governments around Australia seek new ways to treat food waste, councils in southeast Melbourne have met the challenge of bulging landfill and increasing greenhouse emissions by composting household organic waste on an industrial scale.
Australian Markets Weekly – What to make of the latest NAB Survey?
Business Conditions and NAB
Markets Today: Apple, Brexit & the US Fed
The US equity markets are mixed ahead of the Apple earnings results.
NAB business renewable survey: January 2019
Where do Australian businesses stand on renewable energy usage?
NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2018
Conditions end the year on a concerning low.
Markets Today: US open for business as earnings fall
Equities took a hit as Caterpillar, a bellwether stock, missed its quarterly forecast, showing that the tariff war isn’t just hitting the Chinese economy.
Markets Today: Europe’s weakening economy
European PMIs came out weaker than expected. That, together with a downbeat Mario Draghi, saw the Euro weaken.
Market’s Today: Writing’s on the wall
Negativity on the state of the global economy has managed to overshadow positive earning results from US companies.
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2018
This month we continue our podcast series to accompany the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index. It’s a short, 10 minute podcast, designed to give you a quick summary of the major drivers of the index this month. To listen, just click the link below.
China’s economy at a glance
China’s economy continues to soften, but our outlook is unchanged.
The case for sustainable healthcare
There’s growing awareness across industry, government and the community that we need to improve the way we design, build and operate the buildings in which we heal.
Markets Today: Where have all the good times gone?
A blue day on the global markets.
China economic update: 2019 podcast
Get up to speed on the key themes for the Chinese economy in 2019 with our latest podcast.
Australia’s renewable energy boom to continue in 2019
Australia’s energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation which includes the increased penetration of renewable energy technologies.
Markets Today: IMF’s glass half empty, Xi warning on social stability
On a quiet day on the markets (due to Martin Luther King Day in the US) the main focus has been, again on Brexit.
Australian Markets Weekly – February SoMP Preview – a less optimistic RBA
In today’s Weekly we preview what to expect for the RBA’s forecasts and the narrative and risk around its outlook for the economy. We’re likely to see the Bank wind back the growth outlook and trim its inflation forecasts.
US Economic Update – January 2019
Market turbulence to weigh on growth in 2019
Markets Today: China to go shopping, UK to vote again?
There was renewed hope at the tail end of last week the answer to the US China trade dispute isn’t far away.
Markets Today: Delays, good and bad
There’s still no sign of an end to the US China trade dispute as the end of the cease-fire period draws closer.
Boosting Australia’s gas supply
As electricity prices continue to rise and domestic gas supply across eastern Australia tightens, Cooper Energy is one company that’s thinking big so it can be a significant part of the solution.
Blockchain: The next big thing
There is an increasing expectation that blockchain will play a major role as a future economic driver.
Markets Today: A longer Brexit (maybe), a boost for US banks & a bad night for the AUD
Theresa May has won the confidence vote in her government, so she can battle on with Brexit.
NAB Research on Yield Curves – January 2019
Augmented Yield Curves in the US and Australia – what do they tell us about the growth outlook for Australia and the US?
Super funds and banks: partnering for the future
Tapping into a giant retirement savings pool.
Markets Today: Brexit vote defeat, confidence vote & a Sterling hit
Theresa May’s government faced a massive defeat in Parliament with a 230 vote loss on their Brexit withdrawal agreement.
Markets Today: Shutdown, slowdown and voted down
The US government shutdown is now in its 25th day but the direction of the global economy is a bigger concern.
Australian Markets Weekly – US recession probabilities – markets send amber signals
In the first AMW of the New Year we investigate the important issue of the likelihood of a US recession occurring over the next 12-18 months.
Markets Today: Optimism despite shutdowns, recession prospects & a meaningless vote
The shutdown impacting parts of the US government remains, the passing of Theresa May’s meaningful vote on Brexit seems unlikely and negative data from Europe has some wondering whether the region is already in recession.
Markets Today: Powell sitting, waiting, wishing
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s comments at the Economic Club in Washington supports risk sentiment.
Markets Today: FOMC Minutes, Fed speak feeds the mood
FOMC Minutes just released show Fed more dovish than post Dec-18-19 meeting statement/presser suggested
Markets Today: Talks with China “going very well”
US-China trade talks extended into a 3rd day.
Western Sydney, Australia’s third largest economy
New infrastructure is a fundamental piece of Western Sydney’s growth plans.
Markets Today: The dollar is dying
Positive sentiment in the US on Friday and in the APAC session yesterday has carried through into overnight markets notwithstanding a downside surprise in the US non-manufacturing ISM report.
Markets Today: Good things come in threes
It was far from a quiet Christmas period, with volatility driven by data, trade concerns, a government shutdown and a very different attitude coming from the US Fed.
The AUD in December 2018
December witnessed the widest AUD/USD monthly range of the year (3.77 cents).
Markets Today: 2018 in Review
2018 has been a year of surprises. In the final podcast for the year, the team discuss the year that was and what to expect in 2019.
Markets Today: (If you’re not in it for love) I’m outta here!
US stocks have fallen markedly since the Fed meeting yesterday, with the dollar also taking a hit and the yield curve flattening a little.
US Economic Update – December 2018
Economic growth is likely to equal its post-GFC high in 2018.
Markets Today: Fed not dovish enough?
Does the message from the US Fed set the right tone given sensitivities in the markets right now?
NAB Group Economics: China Economic Update
Turning 40: Charting the rise of China since reform and opening up
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index November 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index rose 0.6% in November on a month-on-month basis, repeating its 0.6% (revised) increase in October.
Markets Today: Oil lower, Euro economy weaker
Oil fell even further overnight.
NAB’s world on two pages: December 2018
The Bigger Picture – A Global and Australian Economic Perspective – December 2018
China’s economy at a glance – December 2018
Weaker indicators point to slowing economic growth in Q4
Bringing together councils, universities & companies to support clean energy
Pioneered by City of Melbourne, participants of the Melbourne Renewable Energy Project combined their renewable energy demand to support a new renewable energy development.
Markets Today: A sea of red
Equities, oil and bond yields are all down.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: December 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 2.0% on a month on month basis in November, mirroring a 2.0% gain in October.
Australian Markets Weekly – 2018 wrap and 2019 thoughts
In today’s Weekly – our last for 2018 – we cover these developments as we wrap up 2018, and look forward to 2019.
Macquarie Uni sustainability bond
Macquarie saw demand for long tenors and appetite for socially responsible investments.
Markets Today: Driving down for Christmas?
US shares were pummelled on Friday as fears of a global slowdown widen.
The Australian economy’s quiet achiever
Education has grown to a scale export industry, and is now Australia’s third largest export earner.
Markets Today: ECB ends QE on a dovish note
Mario Draghi’s fear of growing downside risks didn’t do too much damage to the Euro.
The Forward View – Global: December 2018
Slowing growth paired with greater uncertainty going forward.
China opening up opportunities to foreign investors
The Chinese economy is liberalising and opening up to the rest of the world, paving the way for foreign investors to tap into opportunities in the increasingly wealthy nation, the 2018 ASFA Conference heard.
Australian credit market outlook 2019
Corporates will need to be nimble and be ready to access issuance windows at short notice in 2019.
Markets Today: These foolish things
US equities have had a shot in the arm following a Wall Street Journal report that China might open up access to their domestic markets for foreign companies.
NAB Change to Rate Call – December 2018
First 25 basis point increase now expected in the second half of 2020.
Forward View December 2018
Growth to slow – with rates now unlikely to change until the second half of 2020. See our special note on this.
Another strong year in the loan market
Conditions are expected to remain strong for corporate and institutional level borrowers in Australia in 2019.
Markets Today: China Car tariffs reversed & a government shutdown
A positive reaction to reports China might drop tariffs on US car imports reversed by threats from President Trump about a possible government shutdown if he doesn’t get the funding to build the wall.
Podcast: NAB Monthly Business Survey, November 2018
The latest NAB business survey shows further weakness in business conditions.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: November 2018
Both business conditions and confidence continued their downward trend in November.
Strong support for Aussie credit in 2019
After a year of credit spread tightening, investors are becoming more cautious and selective.
Why business conditions have weakened significantly recently
We ask respondents to give their views on business conditions.
Markets Today: Pound pummelled as May delays
The pound has taken a hit on the increased uncertainty on where Brexit is heading.
The Aussie dollar – finding its feet in 2019
Our outlook for the Australian dollar looks at the global forces that shape the currency’s fate.
Australian Markets Weekly – No signs of underlying consumer softening
RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle gave a very interesting speech in Sydney last Thursday night. We consider some of the key takeaways.
Bringing together issuers and investors
Private markets can offer consistent and steady support for issuers, the First Look Conference in Sydney was told.
Markets Today: Weak jobs data, trade tensions & a Brexit to nowhere
The markets reacted sharply to weaker than expected payrolls data from the United States.
Superfunds turn to venture capital
Australia’s superannuation funds are turning to venture capital for the outsized returns the sector can generate and to diversify their portfolios, the 2018 ASFA Conference heard.
Markets Today: Markets dive on Huawei arrest & OPEC indecision
There were big falls in equities in the US and across Europe overnight, with rises in bonds, the Yen, Gold and the Swiss Franc reinforcing the risk-off mood.
Markets Today: China’s Q&A, May’s legal advice & Australia’s GDP
Chinese authorities issued a Q&A which seems to have buoyed markets a little.
Markets Today: Flatter curves, the Tariff Man & a government in contempt
Risk sentiment has turned sour all of a sudden, with flattening yield curves preying heavily on the concerns of investors.
Markets Today: Is US-China deal euphoria hiding the real picture?
Equities were boosted overnight by the positive (temporary) deal between the US and China.
Australian Markets Weekly – Trends in Profitability – mining powering gains
The Weekly delves into trends in profitability following the release of ABS quarterly Business Indicators data,
The AUD in November 2018
After rallying at the beginning of the month, AUD/USD mostly range-traded between 72 and 73 cents during the rest of November.
New Year, new opportunities
As 2018 draws to a close, we’d like to share some of the achievements of our Corporate and Institutional clients over the past year.
Markets Today: Tariffs off, for now
An agreement was reached between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 meeting over the weekend.
Australian GDP Preview: Q3 2018
Healthy momentum continues
The infrastructure opportunity for super funds
Australia’s superannuation funds should seriously consider infrastructure investment opportunities that help build the nation, NAB Chief Customer Officer of Consumer Banking, and former Premier of New South Wales, Mike Baird, says.
Markets Today: Can you deal with it
The markets have been treading water ahead of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, impacted a little by the news that Peter Navarro might also be attending the dinner.
New deal connecting Australian businesses to Chinese visitors
Australian businesses are set to benefit from a collaboration between NAB and Alipay which will revolutionise how Chinese tourists pay for products and services. NAB Executive General Manger of Deposit and Transaction Services Shane Conway said more than 1 million Chinese tourists visit Australia each year spending more than $11 billion. “By making China’s number […]
Markets Today: Brexit fears, more US tariffs & Powell close to neutral
President Trump is threatening more tariffs – this time on car imports.
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q3 2018
Total NAB customer spending grew 7.0% y/y in Q3 2018 - up from 5.6% in the previous quarter and 3.0% in the same quarter a year ago.
Markets Today: US warning on China & the Fed’s new neutral
President Trump has threatened China again, suggesting the prospect of tariffs at the year end is real.
Markets Today: GM closures; oil bounces back; Italian hopes
There was a spark of confidence in the markets overnight as equities rose in the US, along with a bounce back in oil and a rise in Treasury yields.
Australian Markets Weekly – Population in the spotlight
Population growth has become an important issue for the economy and associated politics.
Investors see new opportunities in property
Build-to-rent could provide new avenues for investors as well as improve housing affordability, a NAB conference has been told.
5 recommendations for customer stewardship in infrastructure
Infrastructure may be complex but that is never a reason for tolerating under performance and insensitivity to customers.
Markets Today: No love to share at the end of Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving week finished with a rapidly falling oil price and questions over the strength of growth in the US economy.
US Economic Update – November 2018
Initial indicators for Q4 suggest the economy continues to perform strongly towards the end of 2018.
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index October 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in October on a month-on-month basis, rebounding from a much weaker 0.2% in September.
Markets Today: Didn’t we almost win it all
Theresa May and European negotiators have agreed an outline of what the relationship will be after the UK finally leaves the EU which helped the pound today.
China Economic Update: November 2018
Hands in pockets: Chinese consumers are confident but that doesn’t show up in retail sales data
Markets Today: Oil rises, stocks rebound, China warned
Oil and equities have bounced back up.
Markets Today: Back where we started from
Oil prices and US equities are back close to where they were at the start of the year.
Australian Markets Weekly – The slowing demand for real estate jobs
Housing market cools; job ads pull back.
Markets Today: Burning down the house
US stocks take a big hit. The Aussie and New Zealand dollars seem to have come off the worst out of the major currencies with a rise in uncertainty, whereas Sterling has risen.
Markets Today: Fed turns dovish in an uncertain world
The US dollar and Treasury yields fell on Friday as Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said they were close to being neutral on interest rates.
China’s economy at a glance – November 2018
Trade impacts are yet to emerge, but mixed signals persist in China.
Markets Today: Pound hit hard
How low can the pound go if the UK shifts towards a no-deal Brexit?
The Forward View – Global: November 2018
Global growth is above average but slowing.
Whatever next? The trends that could influence business in 2019
Wherever you look, the future is about technology – the way we invest, care for our health and even how we grow our food. We take a look at where technology might take us in 2019.
Markets Today: May’s first hurdle. Step two is survival.
Uncertainty on whether the UK Cabinet would pass May’s Brexit deal played heavily on the pound overnight but it rebounded when the deal was approved.
Embedding customer stewardship in infrastructure
Customer stewardship matters because infrastructure is an intimate part of nearly every aspect of our lives, therefore quality of services and astute long-term investment decisions have never been more important
Markets Today: Pound soars as Brexit draft deal done
A first Brexit milestone could mean a volatile 24 hours or so for Sterling.
Podcast: NAB Monthly Business Survey, October 2018
Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks through the findings in the latest NAB Business Survey.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2018
Confidence and conditions ease.
Markets Today: Brexit and a bucket of salt
With just 137 days until Britain leaves the EU, how low could the pound could sink given the rising uncertainty?
Australian Markets Weekly – Housing softening but economy read less clear
We open this week to news that auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne continue to run in the mid-to-low 40%s.
Markets Today: The cutter
Is the bear market in oil about to turn?
Markets Today: FOMC on hold, Brexit unknown, Italy in trouble
The FOMC has kept interest rates on hold. Meanwhile Italy and the EU seem to be at loggerheads on budget numbers and the UK’s Brexit secretary appears a little uninformed, as one cabinet minister breaks ranks on Theresa May’s plan.
Markets Today: Divided they stand, divided the dollar falls
Will the results of the US mid-terms impact the focus of the Fed?
Markets Today: (Dominic and the) hand jive
As Americans head out to the polls the markets are left guessing whether it’ll be a good or bad result for President Trump.
Markets Today: RBA, mid-terms & the law of the jungle
We can expect a relatively quiet 24 hours trading as the world waits for the results of the US mid-term elections.
Australian Markets Weekly – Statement of Monetary Policy preview
This week, we take a closer look into how the RBA forecasts might be evolving, including from still upbeat recent data but still nagging concerns about the outlook.
Markets Today: Fireworks
Sanctions are stepped up against Iran today. Plus, the latest on Brexit.
Wheat Growers’ Podcast: Harvest crop condition and markets
As harvest gets started, hear from growers and traders across the country on the first NAB Growers’ Podcast.
Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope
The US dollar staged a swift reversal overnight, with the spot index falling significantly. We’ve also seen US stocks on the rise, along with significant leaps forward for the Aussie dollar and the pound, whilst oil falls sharply.
The AUD in October 2018
The AUD/USD continued its downtrend in October, reaching a fresh low of 0.7023 on the 26th of the month, a level not seen since February 2016.
US mid-terms: why should we care?
What will the US mid-term election results mean for the AUD?
NAB Online Retail Sales Index, Quarterly Update: September 2018
In seasonally adjusted terms, at 0.3%, online retail sales slowed in September. The 12 months to growth rate is also slower.
Markets Today: Bouncing into the month as shares turn about face
US equities bounced higher overnight, helped by Facebook’s earnings report.
Big thinking and investors can save the world
It’s beginning to dawn on investors – and the people for whom they invest – that they’re in a unique position to change the world, without sacrificing financial gains.
Infrastructure’s missing link: customer stewardship
Customer stewardship means putting the customer at the centre of our infrastructure.
Markets Today: Dollar hits highs on scary European growth numbers
The US dollar hit new highs on the back of a falling Euro and Pound.
Markets Today: Shares up, Merkel to step down
Equities rebounded sharply at the start of the session in the US, but lost ground, but are still up on the day.
Australian Markets Weekly – Views on Australia (and NZ) from UK/Europe
This week, we report on the main points of interest of UK and European investors on the Australian and NZ economies following a marketing trip there.
US Economic Update – October 2018
US economy continued to grow strongly in Q3.
Markets Today: Get back
It’s a big week for global markets as well as the AUD.
Markets Today: A swift reversal in choppy waters
US equities reversed their declines with a sharp rise overnight, ahead of today’s GDP numbers.
Markets Today: US jittters, Europe soft, Canada & Sweden hawkish
The US stock market took another hammering overnight, with a move to safe-haven treasuries.
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018
Anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns and how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.
Markets Today: What do I know?
It has been another bad day at the office for equity markets, beginning in the Asian session and spreading across Europe and the US.
Markets Today: China boosts business. May’s last stand?
The Chinese stock market performed well on the back of yesterday’s proposals from the government and the PBoC. And there’s increasing questions over whether the UK PM should stand-down.
Australian Markets Weekly: CPI Preview – softer inflation in Q3
This week, we share our thoughts on inflation, with Q3 CPI due to be released in a little over a week on Wednesday 31 October.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2018
Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) fell 9 points to a 2-year low +8 in Q3, but is still well above long-term average levels (+3).
Markets Today: State of independence
AUD (and NZD) this week look set to remain in the hands of broader USD and Emerging Market (EM) moves.
Growing Australia’s fledgling fintech ecosystem
Alternatives are emerging to give Australia’s fledgling fintech firms easier access to funding.
Green infrastructure and the digital evolution of ESG investment
Using blockchain to boost green investment: How to create trust, transparency and liquidity for green infrastructure opportunities.
Markets Today: A risk-off mood, just for today?
There’s caution in the air, but could it just be for a day?
Markets Today: US dollar gains, oil falls, EU wants answers
Despite increasing tensions over the missing Saudi journalist, oil fell sharply.
Markets Today: bad mood rising
US shares are racing ahead again on earnings results and further evidence of a strong US economy.
$100 oil – what would it mean for the USD and AUD?
AUD/USD positively correlated to oil prices more often than not.
Australian Markets Weekly – stock market valuations – how overvalued?
This week, we're reproducing a thematic piece on US stock market valuations.
Markets Today: Brexit dreams, Saudi denials & Kiwi inflation
Still hope a Brexit deal can be found, fears of a US response to the death of a journalist in Saudi Arabia seem to have been put on hold, keeping oil prices in check. And a look ahead to today’s NZ inflation figures.
Markets Today: Running to the Brexit cliff
The pound has fallen sharply as the currency markets opened on the news that a Brexit deal this week is looking very unlikely.
Customer stewardship’s vital role in our infrastructure
Business should recognise the powerful role it can play in ensuring Australia has the right infrastructure, in the right places; infrastructure that’s affordable, reliable and sustainable.
Transport infrastructure update Victoria: September 2018
The Victorian economy has been one of Australia’s fastest growing this year. Given the scope of construction projects now ramping up it's likely transport infrastructure spending will continue to contribute strongly to Victorian growth over the next year.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2018
The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 6.5% in September, recording the biggest monthly gain since December 2010.
Markets Today: Another night of the long knives
Equity markets took another hammering overnight.
Renewable energy the key to a greener economy
Growing interest from investors has underpinned the rapid development of the renewables sector, a key industry conference has been told.
Markets Today: Is it all downhill from here?
Overnight saw a big sell-off of US and European stocks.
Markets Today: Brexit hope, Italy’s mess, China’s plans
Whilst the US economy seems to go from strength to strength, there is speculation that China will ramp up stimulus measures to keep their economy strong.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018
Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.
Markets Today: Risky end to China’s Golden Week
Equity markets took a hammering overnight. China felt it worst after their Golden Week holiday.
Australian Markets Weekly – housing correction but no macro downturn
This week, we thought we would look in brief at two important issues and how they are impacting the Australian economy and financial markets.
Markets Today: Rainy days and Mondays
Strong US payrolls data on Friday saw bond yields push higher.
Markets Today: Aussie down and staying there
The rising US dollar is playing havoc on emerging market currencies and the Aussie has got tied up in the bad news.
Markets Today: Oilmaggedon & the great treasuries sell off
Could oil reach $100 a barrel? And why have US treasury yields leapt forward overnight?
Markets Today: Indonesia and Italy spoil the party
Italy’s travails continue and heightening oil prices are causing problems for Indonesia.
The AUD in September 2018
September was a challenging month for the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: Markets optimistic as Not-NAFTA deal is done
An eleventh-hour deal has has buoyed markets and contributed to increased risk sentiment.
Australian Markets Weekly – Hefty Eastern drought but limited GDP impact
Agricultural prices and production continues to be very region and commodity specific.
Markets Today: Italy overspends
The size of the Italian government’s budget deficit is causing concern in Europe.
Markets Today: Mambo Italiano
The Italian budget wasn’t as easy to resolve as the markets had hoped.
Markets Today: Take outs from the FOMC meeting
The FOMC lifted interest rates in the US this morning with the expectation of another hike in December.
Markets Today: Waiting for the FOMC, NAFTA & Brexit
The markets are quiet ahead of tomorrow morning’s FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, there seems to be a further waiting game on Brexit and NAFTA.
Building resilience to climate change
Financial market approaches to understanding the resilience of assets to climate change are fast evolving and ensuring customers and clients are ready to act to limit climate change is a key focus at NAB.
China Economic Update: September 2018
China’s consumers aren’t ready to drive the economy’s growth.
Markets Today: Draghi gets vigorous and oil soars
Oil reached a multiyear high.
Australian Markets Weekly – A tale of two indicators: SEEK and cranes
SEEK data for August showed that Job Ads fell again and the RLB Crane Index reported that residential high-rise surprisingly increased.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q2 2018
Our wellbeing is up, but Australia lags behind the UK and we're still time poor with some of us willing to pay up to $131 for an extra hour in our day.
Markets Today: May throws back the gauntlet; China ups sticks
The pound took a hit on Friday. Ray Attrill discusses whether we can expect it to sink further this week, and what that could mean for the Aussie dollar, which also fell slightly at the end of last week.
US China Tariffs Update – September 2018
Recent tariff announcements are a modest negative for growth in US and China although Chinese policy will look to offset the impact.
Markets Today: Why the US dollar is falling; Chequers won’t work
The US dollar is down this morning even though equities are at record highs.
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index August 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 1.1% in August on a month-on-month basis, following a gain of 0.7% (revised) in July.
Markets Today: Aussie wins because of (or despite) tariff uncertainty
Whilst China has promised to retaliate against the US tariffs, it hasn’t gone as far as it could.
Markets Today: Positive moves despite tariffs, threats and confusion
Yesterday President Trump pushed ahead with further tariffs on Chinese imports and the promise of retaliation soon followed.
The role of the finance industry in managing climate resilience
Representatives from Australia’s finance sector discuss the importance of managing climate resilience.
Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you
The Aussie dollar was on the rise overnight, even as all eyes and ears were waiting on an announcement on the next round of tariffs from the White House.
Australian Markets Weekly – AUD still in tariff and EM cross hairs
In this Weekly, we set out our latest thoughts on the Australian dollar.
Markets Today: Cold shoulder
The US President is keeping everyone guessing on further tariffs on Chinese imports.
NAB’s world on two pages: September 2018
The bigger picture - a global and Australian economic perspective.
Markets Today: Turkish delight
Quite a few moving points to what has been a reasonably volatile night in markets.
Managing climate resilience in the infrastructure sector
Representatives from Australia’s infrastructure sector discuss how they’re responding to the risks associated with climate change.
The Forward View – Global: September 2018
Growth at a multi-year high but set to slow as risks build.
Markets Today: Aussie up on trade hopes
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars gained some ground helped by hopes of renewed trade talks between China and the US.
The Forward View – Australia: September 2018
A strong first half and easing downside risks.
Markets Today: Treasury yields fly high, US optimism soars
US 10 year Treasuries are closing in on 3 percent again, as expectations firm on two further rate hikes this year.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018
The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.
Markets Today: The waiting game
No further news on tariffs overnight calmed down emerging markets overnight and gave the Aussie dollar a short reprieve.
The AUD in August 2018
International and domestic events have added to the AUD/USD volatility.
Australian Markets Weekly – Tobin’s Q: Alive and well in Australian housing
Nationwide dwelling prices have fallen 4% since their peak in November 2017. How much further will prices decline? As you’d expect there is no simple answer.
Markets Today: You ain’t seen nothing yet
President Trump has threatened to sharply escalate the US trade war with China.
Markets Today: Waiting in vain
There’s a risk-off mood in the markets this morning.
Australian Economic Update: Q2 GDP 2018
Another decent outcome.
Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster
The Aussie dollar was higher despite continued woes in emerging markets, whilst the pound gained strength on positive hearsay on Brexit negotiations.
Markets Today: Aussie and Kiwi test new lows
The Aussie and the Kiwi dollars have hit multi-year lows as the situation worsens in emerging markets.
How social impact investments can help end chronic homelessness
In a Victorian first, Sacred Heart Mission and the Victorian Government recently launched the state’s first Social Impact Investment, an innovative financing structure that supports positive social change.
Markets Today: Brexit bluster, Aussie data & NZ rate cuts possible
Quieter markets didn’t help the pound which fell on further UK-EU disagreement on Brexit and more speculation on a leadership challenge.
Australian Markets Weekly – WA resources: hints of labour strains
The Weekly digs deeper into the revival in resources sector activity in WA
US Economic Update – September 2018
US economy still strong, but trade concerns won’t go away.
Markets Today: Is the US getting tougher on trade?
Are hopes of a US-China trade deal waning?
Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2018
Reasonable growth.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: July 2018
Online sales growth on par with June, faster over the year
Markets Today: Baby you can drive my car
Equities and currencies in emerging markets took a tumble overnight, hurting the Aussie and Kiwi dollars in the process.
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018
Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.
Markets Today: Special deals, soaring shares & short term funding costs
The pound soared higher today whilst the Aussie dollar suffered.
State Economic Handbook: August 2018
Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.
US Private Placement investors eye Australian property issuers
Property issuance in the US Private Placement market is back in favour with investors across North America.
Markets Today: US consumers happy even as clock ticks on so many deals
US consumer confidence is the highest its been in 18 years, even as the US trade deficit worsens, largely through weaker agriculture exports.
Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact
There’s been a swift market response to a possible understanding between the US and Mexico to replace NAFTA, helping the Canadian Dollar as well as the Peso.
Australian Markets Weekly – Under new management!
Australian markets started this week with a new Prime Minister. The Weekly looks at eight key issues for business and investors to consider.
Australian Practitioners have their say on the future of health
Cost increases remain the single biggest challenge facing businesses within the health industry, with NAB’s latest report card showing that revenue pressures and compliance and regulation are among the biggest challenges facing the industry.
Challenge vs opportunity for Australian health sector
A survey of more than 100 Australian health practitioners found an interesting mix of contentment and concern. It appears practitioners are torn between mounting challenges and exciting opportunities.
Markets Today: Stars
US equities hit record highs on Friday.
Markets Today: Malcolm moves on. The market impact.
Ray discusses the possible scenarios that could play out in Australian politics today and what the market impact will be – it’s already hit the Aussie dollar quite markedly.
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018
Consumer anxiety up steeply in Q2. Overall spending tightens as concerns about the economy and our household financial positions grow. Spending on utilities a key expense, and growing.
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index July 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.9% in July on a month-on-month basis, following a gain of 0.5% in June.
Markets Today: Five felonies and the markets don’t care
News of five of the US President’s associates being guilty of felonies continues to have little reaction on the markets.
How fund managers add value
Active asset management still offers value despite the rise of low-fee passive strategies in the fixed-income sector.
Markets Today: Not happy Jay
What influence has President Trump’s discontent with the work of Jerome ‘Jay’ Powell had on the markets?
Property: taking stock of the Australian obsession
Caution but not panic is the mantra among top Australian property investors as they adjust to a new phase of the market cycle.
China Economic Update: August 2018
China’s trade relationship with the European Union.
Markets Today: A short squeeze on Treasuries?
Treasury yields drifted lower in the US today.
Australian Markets Weekly – Unemployment & wages heading in right direction
Last week’s data revealed the slightest improvement in annual wages growth and a welcome further decline in the unemployment rate to a six-year low.
Markets Today: Pipes of peace
Speculation the US and China will strike a deal on trade around November has given markets some reason for optimism.
NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018
Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.
Markets Today: US China trade talks offer glimmer of hope
Markets turned on their head a little today, as the possibility emerges of trade talks between the US and China before the end of the month.
The Forward View – Global: August 2018
Growth remains above trend, but risks a concern.
Markets Today: The widening US v rest of the world divide
The US dollar and equities are on the rise and EM currencies teetering on the edge of a bearish market.
The Forward View – Australia: August 2018
An unchanged economic outlook, but downside risks building.
Markets Today: Turkey concerns ease; the lowdown on the NAB Business Survey
Markets seem less concerned about the troubles in Turkey.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018
The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.
Markets Today: A fowl Monday as Turkey spreads
The Turkish Lira continues to fall.
Australian Markets Weekly – NZD & AUD at the whim of Trump
The weekly highlights the outlook for the NZD and AUD.
Banks in a reshaped sector
The financial crisis and its aftermath fundamentally reshaped bank business models, allowing investors to focus mainly on macroeconomic factors when they analyse the sector. Speakers at the KangaNews-NAB Fixed Income Beyond the Institutional Sector Summit shared insights into the present and future of bank investment.
Markets Today: Breakdown
The crisis in Turkey’s currency is having ramifications far afield.
Markets Today: Cold Turkey
The Russian Rouble and the Turkish Lira hit hard over US sanctions.
Finance moves a step closer to sustainable goals
A major conference of the UN Environment Finance Initiative in Australia has been told that the weight of money is driving the shift towards a more sustainable economy.
Markets Today: More tit for tat makes it feel real
The markets are a little subdued this morning.
Markets Today: What’s happening with the Yuan?
The Renminbi rose today and, demonstrating its dependency, the Australian dollar followed suit.
Backing the infrastructure behind the digital economy
The digital economy has given rise to its own infrastructure needs, and investors are paying attention.
The AUD in July 2018
The US-China trade dispute dominated AUD/USD movements in July.
Markets Today: US reimposes Iran sanctions tomorrow
The US move to push ahead with sanctions against Iran will heighten tensions with Europe.
Australian Markets Weekly – RBA: growth ahead but far from a uniform outlook
The RBA is under the spotlight this week.
US Economic Update – August 2018
The US economy grew strongly in Q2 2018, driven by a rebound in consumption and further solid business investment growth.
Markets Today: Play with fire
Markets revert to trade focus as China announces specific tariff rises on $60bn goods should the US $200bn threat come into force.
Markets Today: Dirty talk
Dirty trade talk rattles the markets.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: June 2018
In seasonally adjusted terms, at 1.2%, online retail sales slowed in June. The 12 months to growth rate is also a bit lower.
Markets Today: Pressure
The market reaction to today’s US announcement on Chinese import tariffs, the FOMC meeting this morning and a near certain rate rise from the Bank of England.
Markets Today: Japan’s little tweaks, China’s new talks and Canada’s closed door
The markets somehow expected more from the Bank of Japan but there was swifter market reaction to news that the US and China might restart trade talks.
Which way now? Australian infrastructure expertise and cross-border investment flows
As the current phase of privatisations approaches its conclusion in Australia, local infrastructure investors are looking to international markets for investment opportunities. At the same time, global capital that was drawn to the Australian market by the deep pipeline continues to actively pursue Australian deals. This has created significant competition in Australia and seen infrastructure investors increasingly focus on a broader class of assets.
Australian Markets Weekly – What do job ads tell us about the Australian economy?
The Weekly looks in detail at some of the trends in SEEK job ads and what they tell us about the trends in the various state economies.
Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ
Today, a session that has been high on movement, even though it’s been low on data. And the Bank of Japan’s attempts to control bond yields has impacted bond prices across the globe.
Markets Today: US ‘economic turnaround’ brought forward
The US has boasted about the economic turnaround evidenced by Friday’s GDP figures.
Markets Today: Handbrake on car tariffs; Facebook lands facedown
Equity markets got a boost from the news Trump and Juncker have reached an agreement to halt further tariffs but tech stocks took a dent from the sharp fall of Facebook’s earning results.
Markets Today: Friends again? Or playing one against the other?
Despite trade talks, shares continue to rise, but for how long? And what’s happening to Australian inflation – a temporary falter or the start of a softening trend?
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2018
Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) moderated in Q2. The Index fell 4 points to +17 but remains well above its long-term average (+3).
Markets Today: US and China prepare for the long game
China’s burst of confidence, irrespective of trade talks, is helping the Aussie dollar, but will it continue if the uncertainty continues?
Markets Today: A weakening Renminbi and rising bond yields
The Bank of Japan’s changing approach to yield control and China’s policy to protect the economy had the most impact on markets today.
Australian Markets Weekly – Mid-year economy and market pulse check
Today’s weekly includes the results of our recent survey of our readers' views and outlooks for the Australian economy and key financial market indicators.
Setting a road map for sustainable finance
Globally, the finance sector is directing ever-greater amounts of capital to address social and environmental challenges. Australia has more work to do on this front.
Markets Today: Trump ready to go the full 500
What will be the impact of a prolonged trade war? Is it bad news for the Aussie dollar?
NAB increases its business focus on health
NAB is determined that our country’s small and medium sized enterprises, our country’s engine room, can embrace opportunities in the years ahead. For the health sector, we believe it’s a matter of ‘go forth and grow’.
Good times coming for the aged-care sector
Aged care is a sector that’s been under the microscope for years. But while it has faced real challenges, its future now looks bright.
Backing Australian SME growth with a new approach
At NAB we see the amazing opportunities ahead for our key sectors – from health to agriculture, education to community – and are determined that our country’s small and medium sized enterprises, our country’s engine room, can embrace them.
Markets Today: the thrill is gone
The Yuan has served to undermine all of the gains in the AUD generated by yesterday’s good employment report.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June Quarter 2018
Favourable business conditions persist.
Markets Today: UK rate rise (slightly) less certain
Could slowing inflation cause the Bank of England to rethink the prospect of an August rate rise?
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index June 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.5% in June on a month-on-month basis, following gain of 0.6% in May (revised from 0.8%).
Markets Today: Closer to fine
The move higher in front end yields boosted the USD, although the greenback was already on the ascendency early in the overnight sessions.
Companies choosing Aussie high yield for growth
For corporates with a growth agenda but no formal credit rating, the bond market is providing a new avenue for capital.
Markets Today: May caves in, Trump takes sides and China woos Europe
Trump in Helsinki and the EU in Beijing didn’t really move markets but the dissent in the UK has weakened the pound.
Australian Markets Weekly – More on bank lending standards
In today’s Weekly we review the important speech by APRA Chair Wayne Byres last week, which covered developments in housing lending standards.
Markets Today: Know your enemy
China’s M2 money supply grew less than expected on Friday.
NAB’s World on two pages: July 2018
The global economy remains in reasonable shape right now despite some pressures on Emerging Market economies.
Markets Today: Trump laps up history
Whilst Trump is overseas, the stock market has rebounded from yesterday’s falls, whilst Brent Crude continues to fall.
The Forward View – Global: July 2018
Trade risks to the fore.
Markets Today: Stocks and oil tumble
The US has imposed extra tariffs on Chinese imports. Gavin Friend discusses the market reaction.
AUD/USD in the 0.70-75 bucket
AUD/USD is now expected to be largely contained within a 0.70-0.75 trading range.
The Forward View – Australia: July 2018
Forecasts broadly unchanged but new risks to watch.
Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain
The next battle for Theresa May is in Brussels – will the EU accept her proposal, at least as a starting point? Plus, US ‘poised’ to release $200bn China tariff list, puncturing risk-positive offshore sentiment.
The AUD in June & FY 17-18
In June, the AUD/USD saw a new year-to-date low – a level last seen in May 2017 | Over the fiscal year the AUD/US traded between a high of 0.8136 and a low of 0.7311.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018
The business conditions index ticked up by 1pt to +15 index points in June, after easing in the previous month. The business confidence edged down 1pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.
Australian Markets Weekly – Hurdle to RBA cutting is very high.
In today’s weekly we consider the case for the RBA cutting the cash rate.
Markets Today: Mayday for the Tories
The markets outside of the British Isles have seen some positive sentiment, including Australia.
Markets Today: May presents cake as US wage growth crumbles
Theresa May has presented her Brexit strategy with the full support of her cabinet, apparently.
Trade Tensions on the Rise – July 2018
Risk to world growth from trade tensions escalating.
Markets Today: Hawkish bankers and positive numbers
The Fed, ECB and the BoE seem a little more hawkish, indicating that, whatever is going on in the background, their economies seem to be faring well.
Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018
NAB’s USD non-rural commodity price index declined by over 3% q/q in Q2 2018. This only partially reversed the large gain made in the previous quarter and, as a result, it is still 7.5% higher than a year ago. The fall in Q2 mainly reflected a decline in iron ore and metallurgical coal prices, although LNG export prices – linked to the price of oil – rose.
Markets Today: China’s currency conundrum; trade tariff timing
On an otherwise quiet day there was some volatility in the Yuan on reports that China is happy with a weakening currency.
NAB Infrastructure Survey 2018
New research released today by NAB shows electricity and roads have the biggest impact on our daily lives - affecting almost 1 in 2 people (either positively or negatively).
Markets Today: A strong and stable Yuan, a less stable plan for Brexit
Overnight we saw US stocks fall and bond yields up, but the real action has been in China with a weakening of the Renminbi reportedly kept under control by lots of buying from state banks.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: May 2018
NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) slowed slightly in May (+1.2% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in April (1.6%). 12 months to growth was also slower in May, with sales up 17.2% compared to April’s 12 month to growth of 18.4%. While slowing, trend online retail sales is still much stronger compared to the same period a year ago.
Markets Today: Aussie and Kiwi dollar hit by a hat trick of uncertainty
The Aussie and Kiwi dollar were two of the worst performing currencies overnight.
Australian Markets Weekly – Funding pressures, BBSW/Y and monetary policy
Today’s Weekly considers the implications of the recent increases in Australian money market rates for the RBA/monetary policy.
Depth and dynamism in the Asia-Pacific Debt Capital Markets
Participants at the 2018 Asian Debt Capital Market conference discuss some of the key megatrends bringing depth and dynamism to Debt Capital Markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
Markets today: Pump up the volume and see off Seehofer
Not the quietest start to the week.
Markets Today: Kiwi slides, trade confusion and EU’s blind summit
The New Zealand dollar has taken a hit. Meanwhile markets remain confused and concerned about the continuing trade tensions.
Markets Today: A new approach to China
The new approach to China isn’t any softer.
Markets Today: back to life
Oil prices pushed higher.
Australian Markets Weekly – Bigger Australia: population growth still strong
In this Weekly, we dive into the latest Australian demographic data.
Markets Today: Markets dazed and confused by trade talk
The markets are a little uncertain about how to price the rising tariff confusion, with equities hit hard today but other risk-off signs – such as gold and bonds – hardly moving.
NAB LABS Australian Business Innovation Index 2018
Business innovation levels rebound; leadership pivotal to growth.
Markets Today: Jump
President Trump’s protectionist measures and OPEC’s increased oil production could be the two major market influences this morning.
Australia economic outlook: Don’t expect perfection, but don’t panic
Political risks and uncertainty may be on the rise. But a recent tour of Asia for the NAB Asian Debt Capital Markets Conference reminded NAB Global Head of Research Peter Jolly of the many causes for optimism about Australia’s economy.
Markets Today: US stocks down, pound up
The biggest moves have been in US equities, hit by a court ruling on state taxes, and the pound, after a moderately hawkish Bank of England meeting.
Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day
The markets have moved very little today as investors contemplate the next steps in the tariff battle between the US and China. Even the EU response, with tariffs to follow on Harleys, Levis and Bourbon, did little to stir a response.
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index May 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in May on a month-on-month basis, following a flat read in April (revised from -0.6%).
Markets Today: Tariff talk hits harder
Equities, currencies, bonds and commodities all reacted to more rhetoric from President Trump about Chinese tariffs.
Green mortgages and the future of sustainable funding
When Australia’s first green residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) tranche was issued by NAB in February 2018, it was an exciting development for the sustainable debt market in its own right. The transaction also marks another step in the process of unlocking the bank’s balance sheet for sustainable lending and borrowing.
The ‘megatrends’ reshaping Asia Pacific debt markets
At NAB’s 2018 Asian Debt Capital Markets Conference, experts, issuers and investors zeroed in on the forces that will build connections and foster future opportunities.
Markets Today: All quiet except on the oil front
There’s been very little movement in anything overnight, except the price of oil.
Australian Markets Weekly – Across the border: momentum in SA
In today’s Weekly, we take a closer look at the SA economy that’s shown a distinct improvement in the past year or so.
More investment in renewable energy projects
Major Australian organisations are now directly investing in large-scale renewable energy projects through the new NAB Low Carbon Shared Portfolio, the first of its kind in Australia.
A new way to invest in wind and solar farms
The Low-Carbon Shared Portfolio is the first of its kind in Australia.
Markets Today: Anything you can do
Trade talks between the US and China took a turn for the worse at the end of last week, with the Trump administration issuing a list of $50 billion worth of products that would be hit with a 25 percent tariff.
NAB’s World on two pages: June 2018
Real GDP figures showed a pick-up in growth to 1.0% in Q1 (from 0.5% in Q4) lifting growth to 3.1% over the year.
Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays
The ECB announced today, as anticipated, that their QE program will finish at the end of the year. But markets weren’t quite expecting the anticipated delay in raising rates – which could be late in 2019.
NAB Forward View – Global: June 2018
Cracks starting to show in the upward global growth momentum.
The unstoppable rise of investing with purpose
Socially responsible investing has skyrocketed in Australia over the past few years. What does it mean to invest responsibly and what is its impact?
Markets Today: Fed Up
The US federal Reserve lifted interest rates this morning, as expected.
The Forward View – Australia: June 2018
Economy off to a strong start early in 2018
Bankers and scientists working together on climate scenarios
A UN Environment project brings together experts to help banks stress test for climate change.
Markets Today: On FOMC-eve, a Bromance, a Brexit win and the NAB Business Survey
There was little market reaction to the big deal between Presidents Kim and Trump.
Australian Markets Weekly – USD Outlook: It’s Complicated
In today’s weekly, and as President Trump and Kim Jong Un meet in Singapore, we look at the outlook for the US$.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018
The business conditions index decreased by 6pts to +15 index points, easing back from the historical highs seen in April. The business confidence index fell by 5pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.
Markets Today: Trump’s one – on – Un just hours away
Can we expect any market reaction to the Singapore Summit? Also, the response to the spat between Trump and Trudeau, the disappointing manufacturing data from the UK and the start of a busy week for central banks and Brexit talks.
Markets Today: G7; Brexit; North Korea – Deal or No Deal?
Leaders going into G7 seem to be holding their positions firm on trade tariffs and the Iran Nuclear Deal. So much so, it’s unlikely the markets will pay too much attention.
Australian Economic Update: Q1 GDP 2018
GDP Growth rebounded in Q1, supported by the household and government sectors and export growth.
Markets Today: Will the ECB unwind? Less news means more risk-on
The market has turned its focus on what the ECB will say about the timetable for unwinding its QE program when they meet next week.
A new age of sustainability at Australian Catholic University
The world’s first sustainability bond from a university is funding a better future for students and for vulnerable communities.
Markets Today: Oil, NAFTA and the Conte Controversy
Further speculation that NAFTA talks might fall apart, strong data from the US and UK, and a look ahead to today’s GDP figures for Australia.
Ausgrid shines a light on US private placement market
Part-privatisation was the catalyst for an epic US private placement deal for Australian utility Ausgrid.
Markets Today: Trade war? What trade war?
The markets have switched back to risk-on, helping the Aussie dollar rise faster than any of the majors this morning.
Australian Markets Weekly – US price pressures and labour market tightness
There is expected to be continuing downward pressure on the AUD from interest rate differentials given higher US yields.
Markets Today: Strong enough
After the excitement of Parmageddon last week, followed by the sudden enforcement of steel and aluminium tariffs on Trump’s supposed allies, the markets can at last look forward to a more traditional week where data and central bank policy drives the agenda.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Report: Q1 2018
Home ownership is a key to wellbeing according to new research from NAB
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: April 2018
NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) accelerated in April (+1.4% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in March(1.1%).
Australian GDP Preview: Q1 2018
Solid start to the year.
Markets Today: I feel like tariffs tonight
As concerns over Italy subside, for now, President Trump has upped the ante against the EU, Mexico and Canada, with tariffs from midnight on steel and aluminium.
Markets Today: Did Parmageddon go too far? Inflation next to watch for
The markets have retreated somewhat from yesterday’s tumultuous response to uncertainty over who will govern Italy, and their stance on the Euro and EU membership.
Powering into the Australian market
Breaking into the Australian renewable energy market with a new mode of financing was a great challenge and a golden opportunity for Goldwind. Three deals later, the company’s aiming to power one million Australian homes.
Markets Today: Italian meltdown as early election looms
Italian two year bond yields rose 190 basis points overnight. It’s the worst sell off in 26 years, with the distinct possibility that Italians will go back to vote as soon as July.
Markets Today: Italian Summer
Italy looks set to go back to the polls. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at the market reaction on today’s Morning Call podcast.
Australian Markets Weekly – Boring, boring, boring as the central forecast plays out
Despite an awful lot of noise in markets, the boringly positive development has been that the central forecast for a slow improvement in Australian and global growth, continues to play out.
Markets Today: Conte out, oil down, talks on
The breaking news this morning is that Italy’s premier designate Guiseppe Conte has stepped aside, unwilling to form a government.
Markets Today: Markets in a half-hearted risk-off mood
There wasn’t a strong response to the news that peace talks between the US and North Korea have broken down.
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2018
Total NAB customer spending grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 2018, up from 5.0% in the previous quarter and 2.0% compared to the same quarter a year ago.
Markets Today: Risk-off mood on a raft of growth concerns
Italy’s new government, Turkey’s emergency rate hike, the failing China trade deal, the UK’s weakening inflation, slow growth in Europe, tensions over Iran – there’s a lot to be concerned about.
Another evolutionary step in sustainable funding
The launch of the green-loan principles (GLPs) presents an opportunity for another evolutionary step in sustainable funding. By standardising and codifying what qualifies as green bank lending, the GLPs could make sustainable finance relevant to a wider cohort of borrowers according to David Jenkins, director, sustainable capital markets at NAB.
Markets Today: Oil choppy over Venezuela; Trump doubtful on North Korea outcome
It's been a quiet session overnight. Oil rallied as supply fears rose on Trump’s sanctions imposed on the country this week, but it has since retreated.
Markets Today: US stocks rise and NAB pushes back date for assumed rate hike
The positive news regarding China has seen stocks rise in the US today but there has been little movement on Treasuries or the US dollar.
Australian Markets Weekly – NAB delays first rate hike until mid-2019
The change reflects the fact there's no sign as yet of stronger wages growth and unemployment has been stuck at around 5.5% for the best part of a year. We still expect the economy to strengthen, leading to a declining unemployment rate.
NAB change in cash rate call: May 2018
First 25bp increase now expected mid-2019.
Markets Today: Truce
Steven Mnuchin says the trade war with China is on-hold, for now, after the agreement that will see China supposedly buying more from the US, but not the reported extra $200 billion worth.
Markets Today: What if Trump’s headline promises don’t come to pass?
President Trump has been making headlines with peace treaties and trade pacts, but what if they don’t happen? North Korea has threatened to pull out and now the President is saying the China talks may not be successful.
Australian fixed-income market evolution boosted by institutional term loans
A new debt market is evolving that could help give mid-sized Australian companies that don’t have a credit rating more options to secure debt funding from investors.
Yield hungry investors head to Oz
NAB and Asiamoney's latest poll on Asian and European investors’ appetite for Australian debt tells a story of consistency and stability as the region presents a safe option amid turbulence - while also offering sustainable opportunities.
Markets Today: European bonds hit by Italian populism
In Italy, the populist parties aiming for a coalition Italian government are said to be demanding a €250bn debt write down by the ECB.
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index April 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index was weaker in April, down 0.6% on a month on month basis in March.
Markets Today: Treasury yields hit four-year high, US dollar reaches year’s peak
US ten-year treasuries were up eight basis points this morning, with the US dollar reaching a new high for the year so far.
NAB’s clean energy team powers 2.1 million Australian homes
This week NAB's 100th green energy project provides funding for the Crowlands Wind Farm project in Western Victoria.
Markets Today: Oil rises on unrest; US and European yields boosted
The continuing rise in oil prices and rising bond yields in the US – where they have tipped the 3% yield mark again.
Australian Markets Weekly – Inside housing: orderly softening
It was a subdued end to last week for markets, oil still high in the aftermath of Trump reimposing sanctions on Iran. The housing sector is our special topic for this Weekly.
Markets Today: Trump blows hot and cold on tariffs
Trump seems to be offering a lifeline to Chinese telecoms company ZTE, whilst threatening car manufacturers with a 20 percent import tariff.
Markets Today: Iran makes oil bumpy, weaker CPI pushes yields lower – Preview
It’s been a bumpy day for oil following Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran Deal. But it’s today’s weaker than expected US CPI data that has had the most influence, driving down Treasury yields and giving a boost to share prices.
Markets Today: US Treasury Yields, Stocks & Oil up on Iran decision fallout
Markets react firmly to the US decision on the Iran Deal and the news the markets don’t want to hear about the Italian government.
Markets Today: Last night’s Budget and Trump’s hard exit from Iran deal
The US to reinstate tough economic sanctions against Iran, with the threat of secondary sanctions against those who continue to support the regime. Plus last night’s Budget, Theresa May’s split cabinet and the risk of another election in Italy.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: March 2018
In seasonally adjusted terms, at 0.9%, online retail sales accelerated in March. The 12 months to growth rate is however a bit slower.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2018
Business conditions at record levels.
Alipay has landed
With 1.2 million visitors injecting $10 billion into the Australian economy each year, and almost one third of our international students now coming from China, Chinese custom is big business. Alibaba Australia’s MD explains Alipay.
Take a seat to become a better leader
The skills you learn around the board table could have a big impact on the way you run your business. Here are six of the benefits.
Markets Today: The week ahead for the Dollar, China, Iran, Argentina and Brexit
Will the US dollar rally continue this week?
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017
Total NAB customer spending accelerated to 5.0% y/y in Q4 2017, from 3.0% y/y in the previous quarter with spending growth up across all metropolitan and regional areas.
The AUD in April 2018
April was a month of two halves for AUD/USD. Get the picture with our annotated chart.
Markets Today: Markets a little testy ahead of payrolls
The S&P500 fell a lot in early trade, testing some technical levels before regaining most of the ground. The US dollar has also retreated.
Markets Today: Is it ‘Mission Accomplished’ for the Fed?
Words from the Fed have had little impact on the markets, across all sectors, except oil and gold, which rose on the news that not much has changed.
Markets Today: Soaring dollar as US leaves the pack behind
Suggestions the move reflects the US economy gaining momentum, whilst other economies are failing to keep pace.
Markets Today: Iran is Trump’s next challenge
Tapas Strickland suggests the markets are getting used to the US President’s style and that could ease concerns over future Trumpisms.
Markets Today: Markets not drawn on peace promise, yet
Why such little reaction to Friday’s historic peace promise? NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests why it failed to move the markets, and looks to this week’s major influences.
Markets Today: Cautious Man
The Euro and European bond yields took a blow today as the European Central Bank failed to commit to a timetable for the ending of quantitative easing.
NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018
Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns & how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.
Markets Today: 10 year Treasuries pass the 3% mark
US 10-year treasury yields have moved passed 3 percent, boosting the US dollar and sending the Aussie dollar careering downwards.
Life in the lucky country: Is Australia still a great place to live?
Australians remain positive about their lives today but fear the future.
Markets Today: 24 April 2018
US 10 year Treasury yields are very close to 3 percent this morning. As NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie its resulted in rising bond yields elsewhere, including Europe and Australia.
Australian Markets Weekly: 23 April 2018
FX Hedging Trends
Markets Today: 23 April 2018
If Steven Mnuchin reaches a trade pact with China, will it create enough confidence to push the Aussie dollar out of its trading range?
Pathways to Building Australia’s Entrepreneurs
Our small and medium businesses are critical to Australia’s prosperity, so it is important that we put in place the right settings that enable our entrepreneurs to have the greatest chance of success.
Markets Today: 20 April 2018
Inflation. Watch out, it’s coming.
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: March Quarter 2018
Business conditions strong and businesses have their say on tax.
Corporate Income Tax Cuts – from a Business Perspective
Based on responses from the March 2018 Quarterly Business Survey.
Markets Today: 19 April 2018
Rising commodity prices, stalling inflation, a flattening curve and cautious Canadians
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2018
Overall sentiment (measured by NAB’s Commercial Property Index) rose 4 points to +21 in Q1.
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index March 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index grew 1.2% on a month on month basis in March – slower than January or February.
Markets Today: And the beat goes on
In a busy #MorningCall podcast @NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks to Phil Dobbie about US earnings, trade concessions, IMF forecasts, UK wages, Chinese retail, the RBA minutes, Bank of Canada, and more!
China’s economy at a glance: April 2018
Can China maintain its stable growth profile as trade tensions increase?
Markets Today: Run over by a truck
It’s company earnings and global politics driving markets today. @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil Dobbie to talk about President Trump, Shinzo Abe, Theresa May, Michael Cohen and the next Deputy Governor of the US Federal Reserve.
Australian Markets Weekly: 16 April 2018
Testing and (hints of) building capacity
Markets Today: High Hopes
Will the Syria missile strikes hit the markets today. @NAB’s Ray Attrill says not on today’s edition of #TheMorningCall podcast
Funding diversity propels Australia’s corporate bond issuers
NAB’s review of first quarter corporate debt issuance.
Markets Today: Possibly Maybe
Another day, another direction for US equities. Today they’re back up (for now) on easing tensions over Syria (for now). Join @NAB’s Gavin Friend and Phil Dobbie on #TheMorningCall.
NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018
After a somewhat disappointing 2017 we continue to expect growth to gain more momentum during 2018 – with GDP increasing by around 3% through the year or 2.8% in year average terms.
NAB Forward View – Global: April 2018
First shots fired in the US-China trade war.
Markets Today: US missiles and inflation – both are on the horizon
President Trump’s missile warning spooks US equity markets for a while, but @NAB’s David de Garis said it was only a mild risk-off mood.
The Forward View – Australia: April 2018
Still see growth momentum improving.
Markets Today: Big Love
US equities and commodity currencies boosted by President Xi’s calming talk overnight – but @NAB’s Ray Attrill warns we can continue to expect periodic risk off sentiment.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: March 2018
Business conditions come off the boil, but still hot.
NAB Charitable Giving Index report: February 2018
More Aussies are opening their wallets to charity, says NAB report.
Markets Today: Every Day is a Winding Road
US shares back up as trade war fears ease again, even though China threatens currency devaluation as a tool against tariffs. @NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil Dobbie on today’s Morning Call podcast.
Australian Markets Weekly: 9 April 2018
Views from the US on Australia and the US
Markets Today: Trade war, real war and soft payrolls
On #TheMorningCall today @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on the impact of trade war rhetoric and the fallout from Syria. Plus softer payrolls from the US on Friday.
AUD Annotated Chart: March 2018
March was a month of two halves for the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: Beast of Burden
On #TheMorningCall from @NAB, the US dollar recovers a little and stocks rise as investors hope tariff talk is more rhetoric than action. Plus, payroll figures tonight.
Markets Today: The Heat Is On
Equity markets fall then bounce on China tariffs, then talks of trade talks. Get up to speed on the #tradewar latest on #TheMorningCall from @NAB.
Chapter 3: Future of Health – The health system
The trends reshaping health and the future implications for the Australian marketplace.
Markets Today: Mo Money Mo Problems
The FAANGs bite back – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Tapas Strickland about a slight market bounce, plus rising funding costs for the US government.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: February 2018
NAB Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI) slowed in February (+0.8% mom s.a.) from stronger growth in January (1.6%).
Markets Today: Trouble
Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis if this is the end, or the start of it?
Infrastructure in the US Private Placement market
Ports and airports, toll roads and tunnels. These are just some examples of infrastructure sold into the US Private Placement (USPP) market over the last several years.
Markets Today: Turning Japanese
Technology out of favour, markets a little confused.
Markets Today: 28 March 2018
Early in the session it looked like share trading in the US was going to build on the upward momentum of yesterday, but then a sudden shift in sentiment.
Chapter 2: Future of Health – A practitioner perspective
The trends reshaping health and the future implications for the Australian marketplace.
Australian Markets Weekly: 26 March 2018
Breaking down RBA research on wages.
Markets Today: Erase/Rewind
Equity markets bounce back. The trade war was yesterday’s news. On #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the sharp turn around in risk sentiment.
Changing the world, one investment at a time
Think charitable giving is the only way to make a valuable difference? Think again. You can now use your investments to help effect social and environmental change, with increasing opportunities to back projects that promise to address our world’s most pressing issues.
Markets Today: Wrecking Ball
Markets took a hit on Friday - what caused it and will it continue today? Phil Dobbie asks NAB's Ray Attrill if its trade wars, spending, staff changes or old fashioned over-valuation?
Markets Today: 23 March 2018
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril and asks, is this the start of a trade war good and proper?
Markets Today: 22 March 2018
It will be no surprise that the Fed has lifted interest rates this morning. Perhaps the tone was more hawkish than expected in Jay Powell’s first meeting as Fed chair.
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index February 2018
The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index continued to improve into February, a welcome trend after the weak sales experienced at the end of 2018.
Markets Today: We used to be friends
The share markets rebounded today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s a positive sign that the reaction was contagion from tech stocks rather than anything more lasting.
Debt market outlook suggests old school may finally be back in vogue
NAB’s general manager, capital markets and advisory, Jacqui Fox, and head of debt syndicate, Mark Abrahams, highlight the key themes for Australian credit in 2018 and why they point to a positive fundamental story despite the resurgence in equity market volatility early this year.
Markets Today: It ain’t over til it’s over
The UK and the EU have seemingly reached a transition deal that changes very little till the end of December 2020, when Britain goes it alone.
Australian Markets Weekly: 19 March 2018
Alternative measures of labour market tightness.
Markets Today: Slip Slidin’ Away
USD slightly extends Thursday’s gains, AUD makes new YTD low of 0.7710, -1.1% on the day.
NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018
Financial market volatility has eased since the US equity market correction in late January but a range of geo-political and market events could trigger another bout of uncertainty.
The Forward View – Global: March 2018
Sabre rattling ahead of a potential trade war?
The Forward View – Australia: March 2018
Gradually improving profile intact, despite a weak 2017
Markets Today: Breathe
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the market reaction to this, and to Theresa May’s announcement that 23 Russian diplomats will be sent packing in response to the Salisbury nerve agent attack.
Chapter 1: The Future of Health – A Consumer Perspective
The trends reshaping health and the future implications for the Australian marketplace.
Markets Today: 14 March 2018
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Cattril about the market impact of a President following a “my way or the highway” agenda.
AUD/EUR Forecast
AUD/EUR continues to approach its two-year lows.
AUD/GBP Forecast
NAB’s positive view of GBP and forecast decline in AUD/GBP is in the immediate term.
2018 Corporate Bond Outlook
Clare Lewis, NAB Director Corporate Debt Markets Origination talks about the outlook for the corporate bond market in 2018.
Markets Today: Should I stay or should I go
The markets are waiting for today’s CPI figures from the US.
Building the market: How NAB developed Australia’s first green mortgage-backed bond
NAB has debuted several innovative green and social bonds in recent years. In this article we go behind the scenes to find out how a new, green investment product reaches the market.
Markets Today: On the Wings of a Dove
On #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie asks @NAB’s Ray Attrill if we could be a favoured state that avoids steel tariffs.
Markets Today: 8 March 2018
Who keeps some balance on trade now Cohn has quit? Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the volatility around President Trump’s growing tariff talk
Markets Today: Bigmouth strikes again
Australian GDP, Lowe speaks as does Fed’s Brainard. ADP and Bank of Canada tonight.
Australian Markets Weekly: 5 March 2018
Trade wars and trade imbalances: early thoughts
Markets Today: I won’t back down
Equity markets are back in the black this morning with Treasury yields modestly higher amid further focus on Trump tariffs, with an attempted push back from two key GoP members, but an undaunted Trump.
Markets Today: We are the champions
The markets continued to react to President Trump’s stance on steel tariffs, with his resolve seemingly increasing over the weekend.
Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2017
The economy looks to have performed solidly in Q4, despite a large subtraction from net exports.
Markets Today: Superman
Lots of numbers out overnight but it’s politics driving the markets right now, with President Trump saying he will sign the order next week to impose tariffs on steel imports.
Markets Today: 1 March 2018
A Brexit breakdown pummels the pound – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie asks @NAB’s Ray Attrill if we can expect the pound to fall further as the UK & EU draw lines in the sand.
NAB change in cash rate call: February 2018
NAB economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp increase in late 2018.
Australian Markets Weekly: 23 February 2018
How fast is WA recovering?
Markets Today: 28 February 2018
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the market reaction, which includes falling equities and rising bond yields.
Markets Today: 27 February 2018
The markets didn’t react positively to the UK opposition leader’s Brexit speech – infact, they hardly reacted at all. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland in London about the latest chapter in the saga.
Markets Today: 26 February 2018
Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what impact the news could have on the markets this week, after a rally on equities at the end of last week.
Markets Today: Reverse psychology
AUD back up to 0.7840/45.
Markets Today: That don’t impress me much
Today’s Podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether they could lift bond yields, particularly given low interest in this week’s big auctions from the Treasury. Gavin also explains why the UK’s jobless figures are not as bad as they seem, how Brexit talks are reaching the pointy end, and what will be the consequences […]
Markets Today: 21 February 2018
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about what he was trying to say. Plus, the response to US Treasury auctions, what to expect from the Fed minutes, the latest expectation on Aussie rate rises and what’s the story with oil?
Australian Markets Weekly: 19 February 2018
Wages key to inflation and monetary policy.
Markets Today: 20 February 2018
The US Treasury plans to issue $151 billion in bonds today, $258 billion across the week.
Five reasons why investors love US Private Placements (US PP)
Fresh from the annual Private Placement Industry Forum in Miami, we consider the options for investors looking to add a rock-solid asset to their portfolio.
Markets Today: Meddle
US stocks retreat on Russia meddling, steel/aluminium tariff reports, but still make it ‘6 from 6’ up days.
The renaissance of the listed investment company
Listed Investment Companies evolve and thrive in 2017.
Markets Today: Who let the dogs out
USD is set to close lower for a 4th consecutive day and US equities look set to climb for a fifth day in a row
The Forward View – Global: February 2018
Global upturn to continue despite market turbulence.
Markets Today: Still breathing
There was a sharp reaction to higher than expected CPI figures overnight but they have been tempered by weaker than expected retail figures.
The Forward View – Australia: February 2018
Cautious optimism, but much depends on wages and the consumer.
Markets Today: Love Resurrection
The US dollar is on the slide again. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill the volatility remains ahead of US CPI figures tonight.
Markets Today: Crumblin’ down
US equities extend Friday’s rally and Europe joins the party.
Markets Today: Turbulence
Friday was another choppy day for equity markets, although the S&P500 managed to end on a positive note.
Markets Today: 9 February 2018
Stocks fell across Europe and the US overnight.
Markets Today: Dog days are over
Well it might be too early to call the recent rout in equity markets over, but price action over the past 24hrs suggests calmness has returned with European equities rebounding while US equities are relatively steady.
Markets Today: Helter Skelter
To some, The Beatles’ Helter Skelter planted the inspirational seeds for heavy metal.
Aviation finance
Global air traffic and demand for aircraft stays strong in 2017.
Markets Today: Low
It’s been another night for selling stocks, Europe taking up where the US and Asia left off (the Eurostoxx 600 was down 1.56%) and this set the tone for the US market.
Australian Markets Weekly: 5 February 2018
RBA growth and inflation outlook still on course.
Markets Today: Devil inside
The jump in US annual average hourly earnings in January, to 2.9% from an upwards revised 2.7% in December, stole the limelight on Friday albeit there were a number of extenuating circumstances suggesting the number shouldn’t be taken completely at face value.
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: January 2018
The AUD/USD started 2018 in the same manner it ended 2017. The currency strengthened in January, trading in a 3.4 cents range during the month and ending at 0.8055.
Markets Today: Blowin in the wind
The USD has resumes its downtrend with Euro strength the main culprit and with USD indices trading sub key support levels the big question is how long will the Dollar fall, if only Bob Dylan new the answer.
Markets Today: Moving on up (gradually)
Yesterday’s State of the Union address from the President came and went without any great fanfare as far as market impact was concern.
Helping to finance the hospitals of the future
As the cost of healthcare continues to rise, state and federal government budgets are facing a growing challenge of balancing the competing needs of health-care expenditure with other areas of spending such as schools and roads.
US Economic Update: Q4 GDP 2017
US GDP grew solidly for the third consecutive quarter to end 2017.
Markets Today: 31 January 2018
US stocks are weaker for a second day running, the S&P down a little 1% heading into the close, and the VIX is up to 15 from 11 at the end of last week.
Markets Today: The only way is up
UST yields have led the sell-off in core global bond yields and for a change the USD has responded to the UST led rise in yields and outperforms across the board.
European Energy Sector: Spearheading the transition
The transformation to a low-carbon economy is gathering pace.
Australian Markets Weekly: 29 January 2018
What does Canada tell us about the RBA?
Markets Today: Hot, hot, hot
The dollar remains the hot topic, just as the weather has been in SE Australia with a slice of this summer’s heatwave coming through with a vengeance, not to mention Roger Federer’s fifth and winning set to reach 20 Grand Slam wins at the Australian Open.
Markets Today: Roll over lay down
Speaking from Davos early in the London session, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin set the tone for the session saying “obviously a weaker USD is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities.”
Spotlight on North America
The US Debt Capital Markets provided options for issuers.
Markets Today: By the time I get to Davos
Big dollar subsides again overnight after attempted rally yesterday.
Markets Today: Everything is Awesome
A full Senate vote to ratify the deal struck a few hours ago to re-open the US government is scheduled for 4:30pm Washington time (8:30am AEDT).
Australian Markets Weekly: 22 January 2018
Employment good news to start 2018.
China’s economy at a glance: January 2018
China’s official data may underestimate the strength of growth in 2017.
Markets Today: Closedown
The US Senate on Friday failed to muster the 60 votes necessary to pass a stop-gap funding measure that would have averted the partial government shutdown that instead went into effect at one minute past midnight on Friday.
NAB securitisation, the ‘go to’ house for Australian RMBS and ABS
NAB’s Securitisation team goes from strength to strength, being the clear house of choice for customers and thought leader in the market.
The Australian credit market
2017 has been the best year for both issuers and investors since 2006.
Markets Today: 19 January 2018
Focus is currently on Washington where a US government shutdown deadline looms this weekend unless a stopgap funding bill is agreed.
Why peace equals profits
Steve Killelea, the man behind the Global Peace Index, explains its potential value in helping make investment decisions.
Markets Today: Hold On
The Bank of Canada delivered on an almost universal expectation for a 25-point rate hike last night.
Reg S bond market: The rise of Asia’s own dollar bond market
The growth of the Reg S bond market has been one of the defining trends of the Asian capital markets in recent years. Driven by the seemingly unstoppable rise of Asian wealth – especially deep-pocketed Chinese investors – US dollar bond sales in the region no longer depend on the participation of US institutions.
Markets Today: You can’t keep a good man down
Mixed performance from FX, with EUR/USD recovering from earlier falls but commodity currencies taking a minor hit from a mini-USD revival and easing in commodity prices.
2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance
2017 was marked by a return to stability following the volatility of recent times and the rise of innovative new products, especially in the green and social sectors.
Markets Today: Zombie
Zombie was one of the Cranberries’ biggest hits and though written about what O’Riordan described as the seemingly interminable fight for Irish independence, it’s a fitting description of the US dollar, which more and more resembles a dead man walking.
Markets Today: Where Is The Love?
Friday was a case of another day, another US dollar slide (plus new record closing highs for both the S&P500 and NASDAQ, but that almost goes without saying these days).
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: December 2017
The AUD/USD started December on a positive note boosted by USD weakness amid tax reform uncertainty and news reports speculating on Russia’s intervention in US politics.
Markets Today: 10 January 2018
Oil prices trade to a new three year high and excluding JPY, the USD is stronger across the board. Meanwhile, US equities have made new highs, yet again! and all major European indices closed in positive territory.
Nuance the watchword for Australian-market renaissance
In a wide-ranging state-of-the-market perspective, Steve Lambert, Executive General Manager, Corporate Finance at NAB, attributes Australian transaction breakthroughs in 2017 to long-term positive trends on the demand side.
AUD/USD since float: Number of days in each 5 cent bucket
We’ve analysed where the Aussie dollar has spent most of its time since it was floated in 1983 and the results may surprise you.
Markets Today: 8 January 2018
A mixed US labour report and softish ISM non-manufacturing print had minimal impact on the USD and US Treasury yields while global equities have continued on their merry way higher amid a supportive global economic backdrop.
Markets Today: How Big How Blue How Beautiful
Before I went to bed last night, the working title for today’s edition was Queen’s ‘Another one Bites The Dust’.
Markets Today: Waiting for a bill like you
As we go to print this morning, the US House has passed the US tax reform bill.
Australian Markets Weekly: 18 December 2017
Population growth remains very strong – QLD strengthening.
Markets Today: Vote-A-Rama
US equities have started the week on a solid footing boosted by the prospect of US tax reform becoming law later in the week.
Markets Today: All I Want(ed) For Christmas
Stocks, the US dollar and Treasury yields all rose in afternoon NY trade Friday, seemingly in anticipation of Congressional tax writers announcing a reconciled tax plan capable of being voted on by both Houses this week.
Australia’s future’s looking bright
While there was plenty of concern about potential geopolitical and economic crises at the recent ASFA conference, at least one senior industry figure was upbeat.
Markets Today: Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Man
US equities retained the negative tone seen during the European session and have been unable to trade in positive territory amid concerns over the prospects for US tax reform.
The Forward View – Global: December 2017
A good year for the world economy as growth rises above trend.
Markets Today: She’s leaving home
Markets overnight initially took the lead from a lower than expected print on US core CPI for November, missing the 0.2%/1.8% consensus by a tenth, at 0.1%/1.7%. Stocks rallied, the dollar faded as did Treasury yields.
NAB creates a new way to invest in renewable energy
*Launch of world-first low carbon shared portfolio backing renewable energy*.
The Forward View – Australia: December 2017
The year in review and the year ahead.
Development and diversity: US$ Reg S comes of age in Asia Pacific: video
The regional US$ Reg S bond market has become one of the fastest growing debt capital markets worldwide.
Markets Today: The Letter
Amid light trading US equities are a little bit higher (NASDAQ is flat) and European equities closed in positive territory.
Australian Markets Weekly: 11 December 2017
Two weeks ago, we wrote on the outlook for the AUD from our Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill highlighting the expected move of the AUD/USD into the US$0.70-0.75 cent range.
Markets Today: She speeds
It’s been a night marked by a suicide bomb explosion in Times Square, an event that thankfully inflicted very contained damage to individuals and even less to market stability.
NAB champions community-led approach to social infrastructure
Reduced government funding and a growing population are forcing local councils to find alternative funding for public assets and community projects. NAB has already started filling the gap, with new mechanisms opening up funding sources usually closed to small lenders.
Markets Today: The beat goes on
If it wasn’t for Friday’s US labour market data, Lionel Richie’s “All night long” would have been a great option for a title today, highlighting PM May’s sleepless effort to strike a deal about a deal with the EU.
On the right path to meet the Asian opportunity
As Australia moves beyond the mining boom, we need to secure new sources of growth to ensure our future prosperity.
Markets Today: The Waiting
Tom Petty described The Waiting as a song about waiting for your dreams and not knowing if they will come true.
Markets Today: The caution and the damage done
After the AUD rollercoaster of the past two days, there’s been some follow-on selling of the AUD overnight.
Markets Today: Show me the money!
The USD is stronger against most currencies and the AUD has given back all of yesterday’s gains amid overnight softness in metal prices.
Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture
Australia’s GDP continues to grow in spite of subdued wages growth and consumer spending. Gaining a greater understanding of how these contradictory trends break down across regional and metropolitan areas, as well as consumer spending categories, is behind NAB’s expansion of its Consumer Spending and Cashless Retail analyses.
Australian Markets Weekly: 4 December 2017
Way out West: mining and exploring again.
South Korea: Perspectives, trends and insights
This independent report for National Australia Bank (NAB) by the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University, examines the outlook for the South Korean economy and its growing importance in the Asia Pacific region.
Markets Today: Russian Roulette
My colleague and Markets Today co-conspirator Tapas Strickland has to date had a monopoly on Rhianna songs, but since he’s just arrived at NAB in London to spend time gaining international experience, I figure the Barbadian songstress catalogue is now fair game for use by the rest of us (not that there are many of her songs left to choose from).
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: November 2017
The month that was for the AUD. The key events in November 2017 that impacted the AUD/USD.
Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017
The economy is likely to have grown at a solid clip in Q3. While some pieces of the growth puzzle are falling into place, the stark divergence between business and consumer spending remains despite jobs growth. Non-mining and infrastructure investment will be encouraging for the RBA, but higher wages growth is required.
Markets Today: Summertime
Summer has begun in Australia today, it’s Friday and we have had a risk positive night.
Markets Today: It’s all good (very good)
Nothing like starting the day with some good old Australian hip hop. Funkroar 2011 hit “it’s all good (very good)” nicely captures the key upbeat message from Fed Chair Yellen appearance before Congress alongside the better than expected US and EU economic data.
Talking infrastructure
Mike Baird, NAB’s Chief Customer Officer-Corporate and Institutional Banking talks to the opportunities the infrastructure market offers and how our clients can benefit from Australia’s infrastructure investment.
Portfolio construction tips
Chris Black, a portfolio manager from Alexander Funds Management shares his insights on portfolio construction and what tips non institutional investors should and should not mimic from institutional investor portfolios.
Markets Today: Same Love
It has been a pretty busy night with Fed Chair in waiting Powell appearance before a Senate committee, mixed US data releases, confirmation of UK-EU Brexit bill (after some confusion), North Korea launching a ballistic missile and lastly the US Senate Budget Committee has just announced a tax bill has been sent to the Senate for voting.
Ethical investing
Tom Wirth, NAB’s GM of Balance Sheet Strategy shares his insights for Ethical investing and what role it can play in a portfolio.
Markets Today: Who Are You?
A relatively quiet start to the week following a relatively quiet holiday-impacted end to the last one.
Markets Today: Risky Business
Tangerine Dream, the German electronic music group, provided the soundtrack for Risky Business, the 1983 Romantic Comedy starring Tom Cruise and Rebecca de Mornay. The group have produced over 100 albums since forming in 1967.
Amazon – raising the retail bar Down Under?
A shopfront to the world: how Amazon’s arrival could spell opportunity for Australian retailers.
Markets Today: Strong
We wrote yesterday how the USD had been sold lower on the back of the cautious Yellen comments.
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 November 2017
Medley: labour market, state GSP, housing, and Amazon.
Markets Today: Slip slidin’ away
The UK Budget was handed down overnight and UK growth estimates have been marked down from low productivity.
Markets Today: Get Back Up
A rather uninspired song title (from a band whose name might not make it through the filters) from your somewhat sleep-deprived scribe (Lorde concert at the Opera House on a school-night, and at my age).
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: October 2017
The month that was for the AUD. The key events in October 2017 that impacted the AUD/USD.
NAB AUD Corporate FX update: November 2017
The key drivers behind NAB’s AUD/USD and AUD cross-rate forecasts
Markets Today: She is leaving home
The overnight session saw an improvement in risk sentiment with European equities closing in positive territory while US equities are also having a good day so far.
Building a national consensus: why customer stewardship matters in infrastructure
This fourth in a series of Policy Outlook papers, by The Better Infrastructure Initiative and The University of Sydney’s John Grill Centre for Project Leadership, addresses the pressing issue of how to create customer-led infrastructure and the long term benefits it brings to stakeholders.
It’s back to business in securitisation
Securitisation has been one of the compelling stories in the Australian market in 2017. Issuers are keen, investors are willing and there’s abundant appetite for new and exciting assets and structures.
Markets Today: Shot down in flames (and R.I.P)
Two song titles in deference to the untimely death of AC/DC founding member Malcom Young at the weekend at just 64.
The Forward View – Global: November 2017
Advanced economies to drive lift to above trend global growth.
The Forward View – Australia: November 2017
Watching the labour market and wages.
Markets Today: Talking Heads
Caution remains the main theme in markets with equities softer on both sides of the Atlantic weighed down by the energy and materials sectors amid softer oil and metal prices.
Markets Today: Talk of the Town
Frankfurt is the town and the great and the good of the global central banking fraternity will be the doing the talking later today at an ECB sponsored conference on central bank communication.
Markets Today: Bits and Pieces
A somewhat bitty, non-descript market offshore on Friday with asset markets not all marching to the same tune.
Markets Today: Rumour Mill
Equity markets hit a jittery patch overnight with selling seen across Europe and the US.
Markets Today: Motor’s too fast
The RBNZ this morning has left rates on hold at 1.75% but the language has spurred some Kiwi buying.
Development and diversity: US$ Reg S comes of age in Asia Pacific
Increased global liquidity, Asia’s growing wealth and the rise of the regional investor base have made the US$ Reg S market an increasingly important source of funding for Asia Pacific issuers. NAB sees US$ Reg S issuance from Australian corporates tripled from 2016 to 2017, with ample room to grow.
Markets Today: We are the world
It’s been a very quiet night for markets, the DXY and BBDXY making some net gains, but more from commodity currency weakness.
Australian Markets Weekly: 6 November 2017
RBA to stick with gradual inflation uplift ahead
Markets Today: That don’t impress me much
In the last hour, President Trump has announced that Jerome Powell will be the next Chair of the Fed, as has been widely flagged in recent days. So no surprises there.
Markets Today: Jive Talkin’
Jive Talking: “To speak in an exaggerated, teasing, or misleading way”. I can’t believe we haven’t used this Bee Gees classic once in the year that has almost passed since the result of a certain election.
Fund innovation for investor preference
Australia’s high-yield fixed-income market has evolved from being virtually non-existent just a few years ago to now offering a reasonably consistent funding option for Australian companies.
Markets Today: Good day sunshine
The news on the state of the US and European economies has been good overnight, adding more sunshine to the global growth acceleration story.
Australian Markets Weekly: 30 October 2017
Inflation – what does the latest CPI tell us?
Markets Today: Lord don’t slow me down
Admittedly I never heard this Oasis song before this morning and I was surprised to learn that it was a top 10 hit in 2007.
Markets Today: Barcelona
Two factors drove much of Friday’s offshore market activity. One was a Bloomberg source report suggesting that President Trump was inclined to nominate Jerome (‘Jay’) Powell to be the new Fed chair.
Markets Today: Just Can’t Get Enough
To borrow from Depeche Mode, it seems markets Just Can’t Get Enough with a dovish ECB taper and increasing confidence in US tax reform seeing a rally in risk assets.
Markets Today: Nobody’s baby
After a sleepy start to the week markets have awakened over the past 24hrs.
Markets Today: Friday on my mind
US markets right have been caught between 1) the on-going negotiations over tax between the White House and Republicans, 2) who will be the next Fed Chair (the market seems to be positioning for a Taylor-Powell duo but there’s still no news), and 3) the course of the broader economy.
Markets Today: Sweet Dreams
As song titles go, Sweet Dreams by the Eurythmics probably sums up overnight price action the best.
Adaptation finance: is the investing climate about to change?
It’s among the top three challenges facing us all according to the World Economic Forum – climate change adaptation. But there are challenges to financing such investments in Australia. How can we ensure critical infrastructure is resilient for a changing climate, integrating physical risk into investment practices?
Markets Today: Taylor?
US bond yields ended the NY session on the day’s highs.
Australian Markets Weekly: 23 October 2017
Unemployment to head lower say labour market indicators.
Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over
The biggest news overnight was the finalisation of the NZ Government. Labour’s Jacinda Arden will now be the next Prime Minister following NZ First’s deal to form a coalition government.
Markets Today: Milk it
Milk It is from Nirvana’s third album ‘In Utero’ and starts with the line ‘I am my own parasite, I don't need a host to live’. It references Kurt Cobain’s frustration with fame and drug addiction.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2017
Overall sentiment in commercial property markets moderated for the second straight quarter, with NAB’s Commercial Property Index down 5 points to +18 in Q3, but still well above long-term average levels (+2).
Markets Today: Taylor
The USD has continued to eke out small gains amid ongoing speculation over Fed Chair nomination, US equities are flat (DJ briefly traded above 23k for the first time) and commodities are mixed.
State Economic Handbook: October 2017
Economic growth in most states is expected to strengthen somewhat in 2017-18 before moderating a little in 2018-19 as dwelling investment and LNG exports peak.
Australian Markets Weekly: 16 October 2017
Consumption has held despite consumer worries.
Markets Today: I’m waiting for the man
It has been a quiet start to the week in the Northern Hemisphere, but of note the USD is slightly stronger across the board and commodities also had a good night.
Markets Today: Six Degrees of Separation
It's now six from seven in terms of core US CPI undershooting expectations (six months at 0.1% including Friday’s September print and just one at the 0.2% consensus estimate that has prevailed for each of these seven months).
Markets Today: The long and winding road (to Brexit)
It’s been an overnight session marked by generally limited moves in currencies – the Pound the exception – bond yields have been steady-to lower on net, equities down smalls with commodities mixed.
The Forward View – Global: October 2017
Global growth rising toward trend pace as advanced economies lift.
Markets Today: A momentary lapse of …
Pink Floyd’s first album without Roger Waters “A Momentary Lapse of Reason (Inflation?)” probably captures the key take-away from the Sep 20 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
The Forward View – Australia: October 2017
Balancing multiple objectives, as business remains strong and consumers cautious.
Markets Today: Ain’t that lonely yet
It’s been a mix of events in the UK (better data), Europe (no immediate declared Catalan independence from Puigdemont) and the US (Trump tax politics and a softer NFIB report) that have provided the background for limited currency moves overnight.
Australian Markets Weekly: 9 October 2017
Gas supply assured but higher prices still probable.
Markets Today: Waiting on the world to change
Markets were quiet overnight given the Columbus Day Holiday in the US. Equities were flat (S&P500 0.2%), the US dollar was marginally lower (DXY 0.2%), while the US bond market was closed (note futures were open but with little movement).
Markets Today: Beautiful Noise
Neil Diamonds’ Beautiful Noise was the working title for today’s missive following the latest US payrolls s report on Friday.
Markets Today: Pound the alarm
After taking a breather, the USD has regained its mojo partly driven by concerns over other currencies along with a supportive domestic backdrop.
Markets Today: Fast car – no signs of hurricane damage here
Despite a stellar US Non-manufacturing ISM, there were only modest market moves overnight.
Markets Today: Waiting
The challenge meted out by some of my colleagues yesterday (many of whom are probably still in bed) was to incorporate as many songs from the now late great Tom Petty into this daily missive.
Australian Markets Weekly: 2 October 2017
Potpourri: inflation ponderings, people and cranes.
Markets Today: Riders on the storm
There have certainly been some unsettling events over the past 24-48 hours for markets to ponder.
Markets Today: Come talk to me
It was a session of two halves on Friday night.
Markets Today: Tax(pl)an
It’s been news filtering out over the past 24 hours of the Trump/Republican tax plan that understandably gathered the attention of markets and gotten USD bulls re-energised.
Taking socially responsible investment from concept to critical mass
Beyond reaching institutional investors, socially responsible investment (SRI) assets need to develop sufficient scale and momentum to attract interest from the wholesale markets.
Markets Today: Dear Prudence
Fed chair Janet Yellen spoke last night and opined that it would be ‘Imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation hits 2%’
Australian Markets Weekly: 25 September 2017
Jobs boom seeing some emerging rises in advertised salaries.
Markets Today: False Alarm?
A mild risk-off theme quickly emerged around midnight following North Korea’s statement that the US has effectively “declared war” and that North Korea has every right to “make countermeasures”.
Markets Today: Hung Up
Hung parliaments on current voting tallies in general elections in New Zealand on Saturday and Germany on Sunday have taken bites out of the NZD and EUR at Monday’s market re-open.
Markets Today: That’s the way wind-down goes
The FOMC this morning announced as expected the formal start to winding down its balance sheet to commence next month.
The future of retail
With technology developing at an unprecedented pace and customer expectations constantly evolving, business survival is dependent on understanding and adapting to this changing landscape.
Markets Today: Rocket Man
US President Trump’s 40 minute address to the UN, in which he described N. Korea leader Kim Jong UN as “Rocket man on a suicide mission for himself and his regime” has given us a (predictable) song title but frankly not much else.
Australia’s dynamic superfunds
Aussie superfunds face a world where investment themes are changing and there’s a continued search for yield. NAB’s latest Superannuation FX Hedging survey indicates they’re up to the challenge.
Superfunds: how size is making its mark
NAB’s most recent FX Hedging survey shows that superfunds are adapting their hedging strategies, thanks in large part to an increase in size.
Markets Today: Senses Working Overtime
GBP and CAD pull back on latest BoC and BoE utterances, helping USD move ahead again aided too by modestly higher US Treasury yields (10s +2bps to 2.23%). This pulls AUD comfortably back below 0.80. It has already traded - intra-day - through last week’s 0.7956 low.
Australian Markets Weekly: 18 September 2017
Why we forecast – it’s the turning point that matters
Markets Today: Fly!
Another day on and the Pound has again been the star performer in the currency markets.
NAB’s World on two pages: September 2017
In Australia, the August NAB Monthly Business Survey showed some mixed results, but is still encouraging overall.
Markets Today: Surprise, surprise
While the market’s focus was expected to be primarily on the US CPI print for August, there was much more market action across the Atlantic with the Pound soaring on the back of a near term rate rise warning from the Bank of England.
The Forward View – Global: September 2017
Global growth lifts in mid-2017, heading back towards trend rate as pace of advanced economy output expansion picks up.
Markets Today: Running on Faith
While equity markets had a day of consolidation, the USD and US Treasury yields had a decent move higher aided by increasing hopes over US Tax reform.
Clean energy finance to support the transition to a low-carbon economy
US$90 trillion in new investments by 2030 have been estimated as necessary to meet the goals of UNCOP21 to address climate change. National Australia Bank (NAB)'s David Jenkins says the opportunity for green bonds to mobilise capital for this transition to a low carbon economy is immense.
The Forward View – Australia: September 2017
RBA to remove some emergency accommodation in 2018.
Markets Today: UK inflation thunder
Yesterday’s song title was Start me up by the Rolling Stones and it still seems an apt description with the risk‑on tone continuing overnight.
Markets Today: Start me up
A broad risk on rally that started in the Asia continued overnight driven by expectations of a lower damage bill from Hurricane Irma and the absence of geopolitical headlines with North Korea not launching an ICBM on Saturday as many had feared it would.
Australian Markets Weekly: 11 September 2017
What does the Bank of Canada mean for the RBA?
Markets Today: Doctor! Doctor!
USD indices closed in negative territory on Friday, but managed to recover a bit of ground in the overnight session, thanks to a rise in UST yields and a softer CAD after a mixed employment report.
Markets Today: I don’t care, I love it
I don’t care, I love it was the electro pop song of 2012. So it was with the market reaction to the ECB meeting overnight with the Euro higher (+0.9% to 1.2023) and German Bund yields lower (-4.0bps to 0.31%).
A new way to look at a tough problem
The Queensland Government’s first social bond that seeks to reduce reoffending by young people has been launched by Life Without Barriers and NAB.
Can we afford not to be ethical income investors?
Ethical investment was a hot issue at the KangaNews-NAB Fixed Income Beyond the Institutional Sector Summit in July. NAB’s Mark Todd and a panel of ethical investment industry leaders discussed how this market is developing in Australia.
Markets Today: Oranges and Lemons
The ancient English nursery rhyme was used allegorically in George Orwell’s 1984 to foreshadow the death of true knowledge (and so the advent of fake news, some 50 years before the Simpsons in 2001 foretold of Donald Trump’s ascendency to the US Presidency).
Super evolution: NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey 2017
Our 8th biennial survey captures the shifting priorities of Australian super funds in a rapidly changing landscape.
Markets Today: While my risk position gently weeps
There are plenty of news stories about the muted reaction from markets to the latest escalation on the Korean peninsula.
Australian Markets Weekly: 4 September 2017
Consumer confidence – personal finances weighing.
Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017
Q2 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 6 September at 11:30am AEST. Additional partials will be available tomorrow and may alter our forecast.
Markets Today: All eyez on me
"All Eyez On Me" is a single by 2Pac’s fourth album by the same name and it is one of the most acclaimed hip-hop albums of the 1990s.
Markets Today: There’s nothing holdin’ me back
It was another FX dominated session with the standout performer being the Canadian Dollar, up 1.1% after stellar Q2 GDP figures.
Where can investors find income (at a fair price)?
A panel of fund managers and NAB’s Connie Sokaris discussed the vexing issue of how to create income in a low interest environment at the KangaNews-NAB Fixed Income Beyond the Institutional Sector Summit.
Markets Today: This is what you came for
The US dollar rose 0.6% across the board overnight in reaction to stronger than expected US GDP growth and a stellar ADP payrolls print.
Markets Today: Put down that weapon
The “risk off” sentiment that overshadowed markets after the launch of yet another missile from North Korea didn’t even last 24 hours.
Markets Today: Rain
With Jackson Hole out of the way, markets and related news have been more focussed on Hurricane Harvey, some more news stories out of the West Wing and the resumption of UK-EU Brexit talks. It was a bank holiday in the UK.
Australian Markets Weekly: 28 August 2017
Construction job opportunities rising; mining jobs reappearing
NAB Independent Schools Survey 2017: Part 1
Student mental health on the agenda for schools.
Markets Today: When you say nothing at all
Well I never thought I was going to use Ronan Keating for a morning note tittle, but he just said it the best.
The day after tomorrow’s economy
NAB’s Mark Todd and a panel considered the future of fintech and the implications for investment at the KangaNews-NAB Fixed Income Beyond the Institutional Sector Summit.
Putting socially responsible investing into practice
At a basic level, SRI asset managers often adopt one of two approaches whilst for an individual investor, there are three main approaches.
Markets Today: Exodus
Markets are little changed in the lead up to Jackson Hole, with little in the way of major FX moves to report.
Markets Today: Jackson
Yesterday’s USD resurgence accompanied by an improvement in risk appetite and hopes of progress on US tax reform came to an abrupt end courtesy of President Trump threat of a government shutdown, if funding isn’t included for the border wall promised in his campaign.
Markets Today: In the air tonight
It’s been a risk-on night, a night of some returning support for the USD, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.34% (the DXY by 0.46%), the Swiss Franc and the Yen seeing the larger declines overnight. The driver has been US politics and enlivened talk on tax reform.
Markets Today: Total Eclipse of the Heart
It was a very quiet session overnight with little data of note.
Australian Markets Weekly: 21 August 2017
Dual-citizenship crisis – government’s majority still likely ok.
Markets Today: Gone Daddy gone
The lack of key data releases and major corporate earnings news contributed to Friday’s quiet trading session with major US equity indices trading in and out of positive territory.
What is socially responsible investing?
SRI aims to incorporate environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment decisions and the industry is growing rapidly.
Riding the infrastructure boom
After the recent investor jitters triggered by the failure of some Public Private Partnership (PPP) toll roads, it looks like a new wave of infrastructure PPPs, kick-started by Federal and State Government investment, are making a strong comeback.
Markets Today: Play It Safe
The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc top the FX leader board while the AUD is close to the bottom at 0.7884.
US Economic Update: August 2017
After a sluggish start to the year, GDP growth rebounded in the June quarter and the labour market continues to tighten.
Markets Today: Break me shake me
The USD rally ground to a halt overnight amid continued US political machinations and uncertainty over the trajectory for inflation in the latest FOMC Minutes.
China’s economy at a glance: August 2017
Chinese data generally weaker in July, returning to trend after strong June
China Economic Update: August 2017
Unwinding road ahead – weaker Chinese producer prices providing headwinds for advanced economy inflation
Markets Today: Animal
Looking through Spotify this morning I was surprised to see that “Animal” is quite a popular song title. I was going with Pearl Jam 1994 hit, but then I noticed I could have gone with Deft Leppard or more recently Ellie Goulding or Kesha would have also done the trick.
Satellites and infrared guns deliver hi-tech boost to mango growers
Research trials on two Northern Territory mango farms are investigating the potential of high resolution satellite imagery combined with fruit-scanning guns to improve productivity and farm efficiency.
Markets Today: Geopolitical Cold Water?
The Aussie was slightly weaker at -0.5% with weaker than expected Chinese data weighing alongside a stronger US dollar.
Interlinking expertise
Using cross-sector partnerships to connect and capture data that underpins system-wide problem solving can create better societal outcomes.
Australian Markets Weekly: 14 August 2017
Looking for improvement in SA, QLD and WA.
Markets Today: The Price You Pay
The NASDAQ rose by an impressive 0.64. In commodities USD slippage helped gold gain $4 to $1287.7 (up $20 on the week).
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017
The July NAB Monthly Business Survey showed a continuation of the strong run enjoyed by the business sector. Business conditions rose to their highest level since early 2008, while confidence also strengthened.
Markets Today: Jump
Looking at the overnight chart US equities opened lower following the moves from Europe and Asia.
The Forward View: Global – August 2017
Global growth heading back toward trend after soft first quarter.
Markets Today: Geopolitical poker face
Geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea dominated the overnight session. However, market moves were contained following a winding back in rhetoric by US Administration officials.
The Forward View: Australia – August 2017
No imminent return to “neutral”
Markets Today: Bridging the gap
Bridging the gap is a song by American rapper Nas and as a tribute to his father the song aims to bridge the gap from blues, to jazz, to rap.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2017
Conditions continue their strong run, bolstering business confidence.
Markets Today: It’s oh so quiet
It’s been a slow start to the week, not just because of yesterday’s NSW bank holiday (it’s not exactly the centre of the universe is it, much as some of us might like to believe otherwise?).
Australian Markets Weekly: 7 August 2017
Retail glimmers of light in a competitive landscape.
Markets Today: Fed Up
DJ Khaled didn’t have the folks in Washington’s Eccles Building in mind when he composed ‘Fed Up’ in 2009, but December 2017 Fed rate hike pricing pushed up from around 40% to 50% on Friday.
Markets Today: It Takes (more than) Two
The British Pound has been knocked off its recent lofty perch.
Minerals and Energy Outlook: August 2017
An improving demand outlook and USD weakness are lending support to much of the commodity complex.
A New Architecture for Social Good
The second report in the Catalyst Insights Series, was developed following a roundtable focused on enabling the public and the private sector to work together to create better societal outcomes.
Markets Today: Summer Time
The Dow Jones moved up to 22000 for the first time ever boosted by Apple’s better than expected sales report - Apple shares rose 4.7% to 157.14 after posting a 7% increase in revenue.
Australian Markets Weekly: 31 July 2017
The reasons for slow wages growth in Australia and around the world is a topic occupying the minds of central bankers.
Markets Today: A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall
"We are experiencing a bubble not in stock prices but in bond price”.
Evolution of the Australian dollar bond market
The AUD bond market is not just one market. It's, at last count - at least six markets with their own features, documentation and target investors.
Markets Today: Bohemian Rhapsody
The Euro is trading this morning at 1.1844, the best performing of the majors overnight, up 0.96%.
Markets Today: Breaking up is hard to do
Brent oil rose back above the $52 mark punching through its 200MDA and now is almost 10% up month to date.
Markets Today: Fixing a hole
The AUD lost momentum into the London session as the USD recovered some of its mojo.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey: Q2 2017
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster says that commercial property sentiment continues to vary widely by sector.
Markets Today: Never make a move too soon
As expected, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged overnight.
Australia’s first Sustainability Bond launched
The nation’s first Sustainability Bond demonstrates how the corporate and education sectors can partner to address pressing issues facing our society and environment.
Markets Today: Levels
The AUD reached an intraday high yesterday of 0.7968 but has traded with a softer tone during the overnight session.
Australian Markets Weekly: 24 July 2017
RBA unlikely to begin to normalise interest rates this year unless unemployment begins to fall sharply soon.
Markets Today: Burning down the (White) house
In G10 FX, AUD and SEK were the only two currencies to buck the trend of a falling US dollar.
Markets Today: Twelfth of never
The pick-up in market price action has continued overnight in FX markets. For the AUD, it’s now pretty much all about the Guy Debelle speech today.
Markets Today: Stay
Markets have largely paused for breath overnight, with US Treasury yields flat-lining and the US dollar ever so slightly firmer.
Markets Today: How much a dollar cost
The USD sell off that began yesterday during our day session continued overnight following senate Republicans’ failure to push through their healthcare reform.
Markets Today: Down under
It’s been something of a sideways/choppy night.
China Economic Update: July 2017
Old King Coal – coal still a big part of China’s energy mix but its role is on the wane
Australian Markets Weekly: 17 July 2017
Economy with momentum into Q3
China’s economy at a glance: July 2017
Steady as she goes – economic growth and other key indicators stable in Q2.
Markets Today: Long way down
For an avowed AUD bear, Friday was about as depressing a day as it has been all year.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017
Revisions to real GDP growth forecasts this month largely reflect a stronger than expected rebound in coal exports following disruptions from Cyclone Debbie in Q1. Further out, we have not fundamentally changed the tone of our outlook.
US Economic Update: July 2017
Following a slow start to the year, GDP growth looks to have accelerated in the June quarter.
Markets Today: La Vie en Rose
It’s a nod to Bastille Day today and with the US President visiting France, declaring in a tweet his “unbreakable” relationship with the French President.
Gold in focus: July 2017
Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.
The Forward View – Global: July 2017
Global upturn remains in place despite the risks.
Markets Today: On the Wings of a Dove (really?)
The Canadian dollar is the standout winner in FX markets after the Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.25% to 0.75% as widely expected but didn’t deliver the ‘dovish hike’ some were expecting.
Asia-Pacific Debt Capital Markets: Evolving to support a region in transformation
Any examination of the Asia-Pacific region’s capital requirements, whether by a government, issuer or investor, must begin with the acknowledgement that demographic and financial pressures mean countries can no longer ‘go it alone.’
The Forward View: Australia – July 2017
Encouraging signs emerging, but long-term headwinds keep RBA on the sideline.
Markets Today: I love it
After trading to an overnight low of 0.7605, the AUD has staged a decent recovery reaching an overnight high of 0.7643 and settling around 0.7640 currently.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017
Business conditions hit another multi-year high, with most industries performing well. Stronger trading conditions (sales) and profitability drove the improvement, while employment conditions were steady.
Markets Today: Summer holiday
It’s been a very quiet start to the week, generally a night of consolidation for markets ahead of a calendar that sees the US earnings season unfold amid an array of central bankers meeting and speaking together with some data over the next 24-48 hours.
Australian Markets Weekly: 10 July 2017
Solid US labour market but no inflation alarm bells.
Markets Today: Love Plus One
In German chancellor Angela Merkel’s words, the G20 accord issued on Saturday night didn’t even attempt to paper over the differences between the United States and the other 19 G20 members.
Markets Today: Feel so close to tapering
In terms of market moves, most action happened in bonds. The bond sell-off continued overnight, underpinned by a weak French 30-year bond auction.
Markets Today: It Only Takes A Minute
The AUD is a little softer this morning, thanks largely to comments from RBA Board member Ian Harper in a Dow Jones interview published around 7pm last night.
China Economic Update: June 2017
In May, international ratings agency Moody’s announced a downgrade for China’s sovereign credit rating, citing the country’s rising debt as a key factor in this decision.
Markets Today: Should I laugh or cry
With the US market closed for the Independence Day holiday, the focus has been elsewhere and for the markets in both Asia and Europe.
Markets Today: Little Wonder
Bowie’s song titles have an amazing suitability for morning note titles, lyrics on the other hand don’t always suit.
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 July 2017
Population tilting higher.
Markets Today: Where Is The Love?
The narrow DXY US dollar index ended Q2 recording its biggest quarterly loss since Q3 2010.
Waste not, want not
How is biogas powering a cleaner future for farming?
Funding, finance and risk – insights from the AFR National Infrastructure Summit 2017
There’s a fine balance between risk and reward in major infrastructure projects. Understanding the opportunities and challenges is equally important, as is securing the right kind of funding.
Smart cities – insights from the AFR National Infrastructure Summit 2017
We’re already living in smart cities. The challenge facing Australia is how to ensure our cities deliver the best possible living and working environments in the future.
Bringing procurement processes into the 21st century
While consumers use the convenience and technological advances offered by credit cards for over 35 per cent of their payments, corporate cards are used for under 2 per cent of business payments.
US Update: Inflation Watch – June 2017
Inflation has slowed recently even allowing for ‘one-offs’.
Markets Today: Getting better
German and Spanish CPIs for June were released overnight – in a limited data schedule – and pointed to a better-than-expected print from tonight’s Eurozone CPI by 0.1% if not 0.2%. That’s added support to the EUR/USD and yields overnight, the Euro this morning at 1.1440.
Markets Today: You gotta lift and sometimes that’s how it is
Lift was Shannon Noll’s first post Australian Idol hit. The lyrics “seems like forever that you’ve been falling, it’s time to move on” are an apt description of the mood of central banks, which have been removing expectations of further policy easing and getting the market into thinking of central banks tightening policy. This theme continued overnight with comments from the Bank of Canada’s Poloz and Bank of England’s Carney.
Markets Today: Every day I love you less and less
As summer times kicks into full mode in Europe, ECB President Draghi play list is slowly but surely moving away from the likes of Olivia Newton John “Hopelessly devoted to you” , being replaced by more upbeat tunes such as Kaiser Chiefs “Every day I love you less and less”.
Building Australia’s future infrastructure
NAB Chairman, Dr Ken Henry shares his vision for how we can address Australia’s infrastructure needs, as our population grows.
DIY infrastructure – why wait for Government?
This paper calls for customer-led infrastructure and specifically identifies examples of the 'DIY protagonist - those individuals, businesses and communities who have identified a need for specific infrastructure and have made it happen.
Asian investors and Australian infrastructure
Asian investors are poised to play a key role in helping to manage Australia’s current stock of infrastructure, and planning and funding it for the years to come.
Markets Today: Goldfinger
In an otherwise relatively quiet night with only the mildest of risk-on tones, gold was something of a standout.
Australian Markets Weekly: 26 June 2017
Employment growth is realish.
Giving customers what they want pays off for local council
Digital transformation on a shoestring opens options for residents, frees up staff and provides big benefits for Brimbank City Council, an organisation focused on delivering for its community.
Markets Today: Blame Canada
The late great Robin Williams sang this theme song to the 1999 South Park movie at the Academy Awards, penned by Matt Stone and Trey Parker, in which Sheila blames Canada for the kids’ bad language (and more besides) after watching the expletive-ridden Canadian movie Terrence and Phillip: (expletive deleted) of Fire.
Markets Today: You’re the voice, try and understand it
Norway’s central bank removed its explicit easing bias at its meeting overnight, stating “the balance of risks suggest that the key policy rate will remain at today’s level in the period ahead”.
Markets Today: You say tomato, I say tomahto
A lingering risk off tone remains evident in markets with equities on either side of the Atlantic ending the day with small losses.
Markets Today: Under pressure
Almost out of default, the USD is higher in a night of virtually no key data, but not getting any clear support from a mixed set of Fed speak, Charles Evans (voter) sounding dovish and Kaplan too.
Australian Markets Weekly: View from the US
Strong focus on the implications of the beginning of normalisation of rates by the Bank of Canada.
Markets Today: Easy
On my way home last night I thought the Spice Girls were a strong candidate for a song title today. Brexit negotiations started overnight and Wannabe (“Tell me what you want”) would have been a good option.
Taking the pulse of the healthcare sector
A bounce back in the healthcare sector in early 2017 has experts confident the sector is only primed for further growth. KOSEC founder Michael Kodari reports.
Markets Today: Quiet Houses
Some very refined harmonies from Seattle indie folk band Fleet Foxes to start the week.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017
The NAB Monthly Business Survey was a little softer in May, but still points to a healthy business sector. Business conditions are elevated and confidence is holding up above long-run average levels.
Markets Today: Split decision
A split Bank of England (BoE) decision to keep rates unchanged and another fall in oil prices were the two big events overnight in an otherwise quiet night.
Socially responsible investing in Australia
Socially responsible investing (SRI) means integrating non-financial factors – such as ethical, social or environmental concerns – into the investment process with the aim of earning both a financial return and a moral ‘return’.
The Forward View – Global: June 2017
Global upturn remains in place although momentum stalled in early 2017
Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017
Financial anxiety eases but 4 in 10 consumers still experienced some form of financial hardship in the last 3 months. Financial anxiety continues to be a bigger issue for young people (particularly women) and low income earners.
Markets Today: Janet
The Fed this morning announced a hike in the Fed funds rate by ¼%, as entirely expected, lifting the Federal funds rate to 1.00-1.25%. But we walk in this morning with the big dollar having been pressured and the US Treasury curve lower. Another case of the usual “buy the rumour, sell the fact”?
The Forward View – Australia: June 2017
Business versus households – how will the situation resolve itself?
Markets Today: American Dream
The performer among major currencies has been the Canadian dollar where recent strong hints from Senior Deputy BoC Governor Carolyn Wilkins that the Bank of Canada is shifting to a ‘tightening bias’ given signs of an improving economy continues to resonate with markets.
Copper Market Outlook: June 2017
Production growth to decline or slow in 2017 and 2018.
Markets Today: UK election backfires
Sterling has been hammered (-1.7% to 1.2735) as the BBC exit poll points to a Hung Parliament (Tories are set to be 12 seats short of a majority, being on track to get 314 seats; Labour 266; SNP 34; 326 required for majority).
US Economic Update: June 2017
After a slow start to the year, early indications for June quarter GDP are pointing to an acceleration in growth.
Markets Today: Life’s a gas
The T.Rex 1971 classic is doubtless before most readers’ time but not this one unfortunately, growing up with the first (and still the best) U.K. glam-rockers.
Markets Today: Too low for zero
It was another quiet session overnight with an ever so slight risk-off tone (Yen, Gold, Vix higher and Treasury yields lower) ahead of Thursday’s key risk events – ECB, UK Election and testimony by former FBI chief Comey.
Markets Today: Calm before the storm
It has been a quiet overnight session ahead of what could be a stormy Thursday with the ECB, UK election and Comey’s testimony all occurring on the same day.
Australian Markets Weekly: 6 June 2017
Underemployment dragging on wages growth.
Markets Today: Strong enough
Sheryl Crow’s hit ”strong enough” finds Crow frustrated in a relationship and asking the question, "Are you strong enough to be my man?". ell Friday night was all about the US jobs report and no doubt a similar question (without the man bit of course) crossed investors’ mind.
Markets Today: C’mon feel the noise
US equities have closed on their highs and again with softer oil prices.
Markets Today: The end of May
It has been a quiet end to the month of May, nevertheless the month has ended with a few themes raising question marks over the near term outlook for markets.
Markets Today: Pressure down
There was little in the way of significant market moves overnight.
Australian Markets Weekly: 29 May 2017
Infrastructure spending emerging and not too soon.
Markets Today: Enjoy the silence
With the US and the UK markets closed for Memorial Day/Spring bank holidays, the focus in a quiet night was on European markets, specifically interest in ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech to the European Parliament.
Markets Today: Mind the Gap
Ahead of a long weekend US equities ended the week in a relatively subdued note, oil prices recovered a bit of lost ground since the drop in prices post the OPEC’s production cuts extension announcement and US treasury yields were little changed.
Minerals and Energy Outlook: May 2017
OPEC deal was extended a further nine months despite low prices.
Markets Today: What goes on
It’s been a night where oil news took centre stage in the lead up to the end of the week with liquidity likely thinner today/tonight into the US long weekend with the US Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
China Economic Update: May 2017
Belt and Road Initiative – can the reality of the program meet China’s grand ambitions?
Markets Today: FOMC looking for inflation
The biggest news overnight was the FOMC Minutes, which were interpreted cautiously by the market as confirming the likelihood of a June rate hike, but casting some uncertainty over the trajectory for rates thereafter. The US dollar fell on the news, while bond yields declined.
Markets Today: USD higher ahead of FOMC Minutes
European and US equities have continued to edge higher amid a mild risk positive tone in the overnight session.
Markets Today: Calm on the water
It’s been a night of relative calm when all is said and done and not at all resembling the middle of last week.
Australian Markets Weekly: 22 May 2017
How much spare capacity is in the labour market?
Markets Today: Dollar Days
The recovery in US equities continued on Friday and unlike Thursday, European equities also managed to record some gains.
Markets Today: Problema
The US market has taken a breather overnight, notwithstanding news very late in the overnight session yesterday that a Special Counsel (Robert Mueller, ex-FBI Director) was being appointed to investigate Russia’s involvement in the election.
Markets Today: Confessions Part II
It’s been a real night of risk-off emanating from the US and the Twitter sphere going into overdrive over speculation around whether the President pressured James Comey – then FBI Director - to drop his investigation into Mike Flynn, former National Security Adviser, with Russia in the mix.
US Economic Update: May 2017
A slow start to the year…again.
Local government – an untapped infrastructure financing market
Given the success of PPPs and privatisations at the Federal and State Government levels, why are local governments not in the spotlight?
Markets Today: Euro love or a beautiful mess?
The two most significant development overnight were a 1.0% surge in the Euro (Euro now fetches 1.1089 – the highest since November 9 2016), and continued weakness in the US dollar with the DXY down 0.7% overnight and at its lowest point since just after the US the election.
Markets Today: Fuel
Wow! If you are looking for a quick wake me up antidote, try playing Metallica at 5:30 in the morning, trust me you won’t go wrong.
China’s economy at a glance: May 2017
Key indicators a little softer in April, pointing to easing economic growth in Q2.
Australian Markets Weekly: 15 May 2017
Labour market outlook to improve.
Spotlight on Northern Australia infrastructure
The Federal Government is committed to accelerating economic infrastructure investment in Northern Australia. Up to $5bn in concessional loans to accelerate that investment - are available.
Markets Today: I can’t stand up for falling down
Almost certainly neither Sam and Dave nor Elvis Costello had inflation or inflation expectations in mind when the recorded this track, though for the record US CPI was running a little shy of3% when Sam and Dave first recorded the song in 1967, and over 20% in the UK when Elvis Costello covered it in 1980.
Markets Today: When Doves Cry
Not a big night for markets.
Corporate volunteering? Doing well by doing good
Corporate social responsibility sounds like an excellent idea but in practice it often goes straight into the too-hard basket. Here’s how taking your staff away from the daily grind can save your business in all the ways that matter.
Markets Today: Playing with fire
The RBNZ made its policy rate announcement a few minutes ago and while the OCR was left unchanged at 1.75% as expected, the Bank failed to deliver a tightening bias.
Asian investors and Australian infrastructure: Video
A confluence of trends will see Asian investors take an expanding role in Australia’s efforts to address its future infrastructure needs, supporting more innovative and customer-centric approaches to infrastructure that meet investors’ financial, sustainability and business development goals.
Asian investors eye Aussie boost
FinanceAsia and National Australia Bank’s latest poll of Asian bond investors shows strong demand to boost exposure to Australia — and a clear idea of which sectors will reap the benefits.
Tom Elliott shares Federal Budget highlights
More for business customers and regional areas, but will the promise of red tape being cut ever be realised? Budget 2017 insight.
Markets Today: After the after party
After just over 24 hours since Macron’s French presidential election win, the Euro and European equities are feeling a bit hangover following a solid run in the previous two weeks.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017
The NAB Monthly Business Survey posted another strong result in April, with both business conditions and confidence improving – pointing to ongoing strength in business activity in the near-term.
Japan Economic Outlook: May 2017
Economy regained its footing over 2016 GDP. It grew in each quarter in 2016… the first year this has occurred in since 2005.
Markets Today: “Let’s Love France”
There wasn’t a whole lot of market movement on Friday in the wake of the April US employment report showing a 211k rise in non-farm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.5%.
Markets Today: OPEC’s oil Waterloo
The two big events overnight were a 4.8% slide in the oil price and a surge in European risk assets.
Markets Today: Words
It’s all been about the FOMC and weakness in the AUD over the past 24 hours.
Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing
News on Apple’s earning report have hit the screen in the past hour showing revenue and iphone sales slightly missing expectations.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2017
This month NAB Economics introduces new regional price indicators, in effect a separate NAB Rural Commodities Index for every region in Australia.
Australia-India Relationship: May 2017
No FTA yet, but deepening trade prospects.
US Economic Update: US GDP Q1 2017
The details for quarterly growth, while mixed, where not as bad as the headline result.
Markets Today: The inflation song
It’s been a rather listless overnight session, US data has been on the disappointing side, US equities have been headed sideways, the USD did not build further on yesterday’s gains at the start to the week, while oil continues its march lower.
Turning to customers for the answers: Australia’s future infrastructure
Research by NAB shows Australians don’t think about infrastructure projects as just concrete, bricks and mortar, but rather as the services or conveniences that are derived from them. The role of the customer, and their satisfaction, has been a weakness in the infrastructure governance settings for some time.
Markets Today: The Price You Pay
News of North Korea conducting another (apparently failed) ballistic missile test crossed the wires about 30 minutes prior to the NY close.
Markets Today: Do you want to know a secret?
After some mis-communication in March, ECB President Mario Draghi chose his words especially carefully and stuck to his script at his post ECB press conference overnight.
Markets Today: Much ado about nothing
It has been a relative quiet session in markets with US politics dominating the headlines.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey: Q1 2017
Sentiment in commercial property markets continues to vary widely across states.
Bulk Commodities Outlook: April 2017
Short term spike in coking coal masks softer trend for bulks.
NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016
Australians remain highly anxious. While having more money might solve some of our concerns, it would do little to solve some of the biggest detractors of wellbeing. But, it could help close the “wellbeing gap” between high and low income earners.
Markets Today: European dog days are over
Markets have rallied hard on the back of the French Presidential elections on Sunday.
Australian Markets Weekly: 24 April 2017
Headline CPI picking up in 2017.
Markets Today: French Kissin’
The final results of the first round of voting in the French presidential election aren't yet confirmed.
Markets Today: 15 Minutes of Fame
A fair bit of news to digest overnight, and some market price action across currencies, bonds and equities to accompany it.
Impact investing – mixing profits with purpose
Impact investing (sometimes also referred to as mission-related investing) is an investment strategy where an investor proactively makes investments that can generate both financial returns, as well as intentional social or environmental returns for the community.
China Economic Update: April 2017
China’s income inequality improving but still some long term challenges.
Markets Today: Groove Armada
US equities have come under pressure in the past few hours weighted down by a sharp fall in oil prices following reports of an increase in gasoline inventories.
Markets Today: That’s why they call me Mrs Fahrenheit
The Pound soared 2.2% overnight following the UK PM’s call for early elections.
Markets Today: Talk is cheap
Plenty of news, both economic and geopolitical, since we broke for Easter, the net market impact of which has frankly been quite modest.
China’s economy at a glance: April 2017
An improving US-China relationship provides a better environment for China’s economy.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2017
In March, the NAB Monthly Business Survey results pointed to an overall healthy economy that is gaining momentum, at least in the near-term.
The Forward View – Global: April 2017
Geo-political risks fail to dent global reflation...for now.
Markets Today: Trumping geopolitics
Geopolitics took a backseat today with Trump’s Wall Street Journal interview dominating market moves.
The Forward View – Australia: April 2017
Modest growth as far as the eye can see.
Markets Today: Muddy Waters
The global macro picture has been muddied by a rise in geopolitical tensions, economic data releases overnight have been largely ignored and safe haven assets have outperformed.
Markets Today: Geopolitical UFO? Not according to markets
The oil price was the standout performer with WTI oil up 1.6% to $53.10 a barrel while Brent reached $55.99 after having risen for six-consecutive days.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: March 2017
Results from the March NAB Monthly Business Survey point to an overall healthy economy that is gaining momentum, at least in the near-term.
India: Demonetisation & The Economy
Prime Minister Turnbull visits India after important economic reforms.
Delivering the goods is THE ICONIC ethos
What does it take to make it in online retail? The ability to put your head down, take risks and follow your vision, says THE ICONIC CFO Anna Lee.
Markets Today: Rebel Without a Pause
US employment data fell below expectations on Friday, hitting the markets harder than the escalating problems in Syria.
US Economic Update: April 2017
Investment indicators looking better
Demand soars for new green bonds
As more investors seek to deploy sustainable capital, National Australia Bank says green bond issuers are being offered a golden opportunity.
Markets Today: Hello Friday
We haven’t seen a whole lot of market price action overnight, with the US dollar marginally higher, as are US bonds yields but by less than one basis point.
Markets Today: Fed balance sheet in focus
It was a busy overnight session packed full of data that led to some intraday moves.
Why the customer is in control and how fashion brands should respond
Global e-commerce and multichannel retailing expert Martin Newman shares his tips on how to build a better e-commerce business.
Markets Today: A little less conversation
Titles for our Markets Today note are a great topic of conversation with colleagues and clients alike.
Five tips for making the most of digital from fashion leaders
Insights on how to use digital from fashion leaders at the Fashion Industry Forum, supported by NAB and part of the Virgin Australia Melbourne Fashion Festival.
Markets Today: Risk-off, but the US economy still seems Titanium
Titanium was the urban-dance hit of late 2011 and is still a favourite of gym junkies the world around. The lyrics also seem to be an apt description of the US economy where data remains strong even though a risk-off tone has developed over the past couple of days.
What Pharrell Williams taught Adidas about collaboration
When Rachel Muscat was talking to Pharrell Williams about collaborating on a new pair of Adidas sneakers, discussions were going well – until the singer dropped a bombshell.
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017
With house prices rising, vacancy rates declining and a previous drop in building approvals, it’s likely that residential construction activity should begin to strengthen.
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017
The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.
Markets Today: Chilled end to a big quarter
A negative end by US equities to Friday coupled with upcoming risk events suggest the AUD and NZD are likely to tread water at the start of the week.
Why ethical fashion makes good business sense
Ethical fashion is the right thing to do and also makes good business sense, guests were told at a Fashion Festival forum on responsibility and transparency in fashion.
Markets Today: Under pressure
European and US equities have brushed aside the negative lead from Asia which saw the Shanghai composite down nearly 1% on the day and its fourth session of declines.
Markets Today: It ain’t over ’til it’s over
The UK Brexit letter has finally been delivered, but market reaction has been fairly muted.
Markets Today: (Because I’m) Happy
Getting toward the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and given the torpor of risk assets markets of late, the return of some buying could easily have occurred. And that could well be part of the explanation for overnight moves.
Australian Markets Weekly: 27 March 2017
Australia’s population growth has strengthened to a 1.5% pace, equivalent to around 350k persons in the past year – almost equivalent to the population of Canberra being added to Australia each year (or a new Darwin and a new Hobart!).
Markets Today: Strong
The German economy is continuing to out-perform. The run of better than expected data continued, this time from the German Ifo Survey for March.
Markets Today: No way Jose!
The USD (BBDX) was little changed on Friday while US equities and US Treasury yields ended the week a little bit lower reflecting a mild risk off tone.
Assets: the currency of the future
Governments are increasingly moving away from asset ownership. Fully funded capital intensive projects are proving to be an inefficient use of scarce financial budgetary resources.
Markets Today: Don’t let me down
Some mornings coming up with a title is a real struggle and then others like today you are spoil for choice. I have no idea if Donald Trump is a Beatles’ fan, but if he is ‘Don’t let me down’ would be one of those songs that he couldn’t get out of his head right now.
Markets Today: Markets to Trump: Achy Breaky Heart
Have markets broken up with the Trump trade? Today will be a key test of this hypothesis with the US Congress voting today on a key healthcare reform bill which is seen as a crucial test of the relationship between the White House and Congress.
Markets Today: The crude oil blues
The AUD remains a tad under 0.77 this morning, in a session where there’s been some overall diminished appetite for the USD, with the Yen the strongest in the session, up 0.65% at 111.8, with gains also for the EUR, Sterling, and the Swiss Franc.
Markets Today: Tick, tick, tick
The market opened yesterday in the Asia session where it closed on Friday with the USD and Treasury yields in retreat.
China Economic Update: March 2017
Rise of the machines: could automation help sustain China’s long term growth momentum.
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017
From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).
Markets Today: Back in the U.S.A.
R.I.P. Chuck Berry. And R.I.P. anti-protectionism, after the weekend G20 meeting communique omitted reference to avoiding protectionism, reflecting the new reality of the USA’s position
Can diversity deliver? Absolutely, says Australia’s first ‘social bond’ promoting workplace gender equality
Research continues to show that companies with gender diversity in their leadership teams deliver better financial results. A new product from NAB – and Australia’s very first ‘social bond’ – allows investors to put their money where their mouth is and finally invest in gender-inclusive organisations.
US Economic Update: March 2017
Jobs growth, business surveys and consumer sentiment all point to an economy in good shape.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017
In February, the NAB Monthly Business Survey moderated from the surprising strength seen in January, but remained consistent with a relatively robust view of business activity and investment behaviour in the near-term.
Markets Today: Parting Shot
US equities have reversed about half of yesterday’s post Fed rally, the USD is a little bit softer and UST yields are a little bit higher.
The Forward View – Global: March 2017
Global reflation continues, political risks to navigate
Markets Today: Three Times a Lady
Janet and Co. has spoken and like the Commodores before them, re-affirmed that three is the magic number.
The Forward View – Australia: March 2017
Financial stability considerations to keep RBA at bay
Markets Today: My [oil] delirium weighs on bonds
What was meant to be a quiet night ahead of key risk events (US FOMC and Dutch elections today) turned out to be rather more exciting.
China’s economy at a glance: March 2017
An encouraging start to 2017 – although strength still comes from the old economy, with retail trends disappointing.
NAB Multinational Business Survey: Q4 2016
Foreign multinationals suggest quite good expectations for capital investment in the next 12 months
Australian Markets Weekly: 13 March 2017
What can the history of Australian monetary policy tell us about the current monetary policy debate?
Markets Today: When tomorrow comes
It has been a quiet overnight session with markets essentially marking time ahead of key risk events tomorrow and later in the week.
Oil Market Outlook: March 2017
Prices have seen a gradual recovery from the mid-2014 to early 2016 price slide.
Markets Today: ECB Creaking Door
As expected the ECB left its key interest rates and QE programme unchanged, but a more optimistic Draghi has helped the EUR performed and it has also pushed bond yields higher.
The infrastructure funding lesson Canada can teach Australia
Australia and Canada are both running infrastructure deficits and require significant investment to continue to foster economic activity and maintain core social services. NAB’s Chief Customer Officer (Acting) - Corporate & Institutional Banking discusses the key area of infrastructure that Australia needs to do better: funding.
New technology boosts grape yield forecasting accuracy
Smart phones and GoPro cameras are on trial in Australian vineyards to help grape growers and wine producers better predict the season’s grape yield – information that could reap major savings for the industry.
Markets Today: Workin’ 9 to 5
298,000 more of them were doing just that last month according to ADP.
Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017
Financial markets rallied strongly shortly after it was clear Donald Trump would be the next President. This was evident across stock, currency and bond markets, and there was also a decline in credit spreads.
State Economic Handbook: March 2017
Growth will remain solid across the large south-eastern states, while there are signs of stabilisation in mining states as the end of the downswing in resource-related investment approaches.
US: Change to Fed Outlook – 6 March 2017
Change to fed rate call - March hike now expected.
Euro 2017 Elections: What you need to know
Likely outcome is that the Euro-zone survives.
Markets Today: Marking time ahead of ECB and Payrolls
Markets continue to tread water ahead of the more important risk events later this week – the ECB meeting Thursday and US Payrolls Friday. There was little in the way of significant movement in bonds or currencies, while equities were a touch lower after having had hit fresh highs last week.
Markets Today: Sense of doubt
When nothing else springs to mind, David Bowie songs are always a handy source for a daily note title.
Markets Today: All Cried Out
Fed chair Janet Yellen sang from the same script as her FOMC colleagues before her on Friday and confirmed that ‘fairly soon’ really does means March. Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer later chimed in with “If there has been a conscious effort” to boost expectations of a rate rise, “I’m about to join it”.
Markets Today: Hot n’ Cold
Hot n Cold is one of Perry’s 2008 hits and is not a bad title for today’s daily. Hot events overnight include EU inflation jumping to a 4 year high of 2%, US jobless claims falling to a 44 year low of 223k and Snap, the parent company of message app Snapchat, rallying 41% on […]
Shh… Australian schools are our quiet innovators
Australia will rely on its schools to grow the next generation of innovators and entrepreneurs. But to what extent do they innovate themselves?
Markets Today: Forward March
Something of a return to the good old days in the last 24 hours, when an infolding economic calendar and rhetoric from Fed officials counted for more than what the leader of the free world had to say.
Australian Economic Update – Q4 GDP 2016
Recession fears overblown as GDP rebounds; income surges despite weak labour income.
Markets Today: Walking on a dream redux?
Astute readers (and listeners to our early morning podcast) will note Empire of the Sun’s Walking on a dream was one of our first song titles for 2017. That title was prompted by a lack of detail around Trump’s policies ahead of inauguration day which led markets to ask “is it real”?
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2016
New data released by NAB today indicates that spending on consumption-based goods and services by NAB customers grew 3.1% over the year to Q4 2016.
Markets Today: Process and the passion
In the lead up to President Trump’s joint session address tonight in Washington (Wednesday 13.00 AEDT is the scheduled time), the US Treasury yields have started the week moving back up, but without too much conviction.
Australian Markets Weekly: 27 February 2017
Thinking about some of the challenges facing Australian policy makers – and arguably consumers - at the present time, the slow growth in wages looms large.
Markets Today: Home on the range
Another quiet end to a quiet week but with the U.S. dollar grinding out small gains despite further slippage in US bond yields (10s -6bps) and a fairly flat U.S. stock market (albeit new record closing highs for the S&P and the Dow).
Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016
Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.
Markets Today: Read about it
More focus on the US economy and the big dollar overnight in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal yesterday and followed that up overnight with two more interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg TV.
Life in the lucky country: What makes Australia great?
Australians and businesses overwhelmingly think our country is a great place to live and have a business. However, Australian consumers and businesses are anxious about what the future holds.
Markets Today: Up, up, and away
It’s a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focussing on European politics again overnight, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year in rude economic health with evident momentum.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey: Q4 2016
Commercial property market sentiment has continued to build on the positive gains seen in our last survey. NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose 5 points to +21 in Q4 - its highest level since the Survey began in early-2010.
Markets Today: Livin’ on a European Prayer
Strong European data failed to excite markets – the exception being equities – as the upcoming French Presidential elections take centre stage. Betting markets now ascribe Eurosceptic Le Pen a 34.2% chance of winning, while a poll by Elable for L’Express magazine overnight puts her within striking distance in a run-off with Fillion with 44% of the vote – inspiration for today’s title “Livin’ on a Prayer” by Bon Jovi.
Markets Today: Europa
With the US out celebrating president’s day, Europe was always going to be the focus in the overnight session. My dad used to listen to Santana, so the first song that came to mind was “Europa”, a mellow song with no lyrics, but notable for Santana’s guitar solo.
Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing
Just over a week ago, President Trump promised a ‘phenomenal’ tax announcement in 2-3 weeks, so as the clock ticks down to some form of announcement, market inertia is set to reign.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017
Business surveys and measures tracking the volume of activity suggest that the global economic upturn lifted a notch toward the end of last year and that trend seems to have continued into early 2017.
Markets Today: Down, down
Don’t be alarmed. It’s not that markets have spat the dummy, but rather US equity markets are down, having opened high, with bond yields also lower. In the currency space the USD has been softer, Euro, Sterling and the CHF stronger. The Aussie has been steady-to-lower, though hugging 0.77, supported by the soggy big buck.
The Forward View – Global: February 2017
Brighter signs suggest moderate global reflation continues
Markets Today: Why I got March on my mind
My colleague Rodrigo Catril warned yesterday of the possibility of a US Fed March rate hike – what he termed the Ides of March. That argument gained further currency overnight with the US CPI and core‑Retail Sales printing double the market consensus.
NAB change in cash rate call: February 2017
NAB Economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp cut in late 2017.
Markets Today: Beware the ides of March
Reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the senate triggered a sell-off in US Treasury yields and a broad USD rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next FOMC meeting in March.
India Monetary Policy: February 2017
The RBI, somewhat surprisingly, maintained the policy repo rate at 6.25%. Uncertainty about the effects of demonetisation and sticky core inflation were factors.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017
The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.
Council’s green vision to deliver financial and environmental gains
Mornington Peninsula Shire is investing an estimated $9.5 million in emissions reduction projects over the next five years as part of a far-reaching plan to generate a cleaner and greener environment as well as operational savings.
Markets Today: Crawling back to you
The message in American band Daughtry’s 2011 song later covered (with aplomb) by the Arctic Monkeys is, according to the writer, “Your significant other is in the right and just like she said it would happen, you come crawling back”
Australian Markets Weekly: 13 February 2017
The Australian budget in the first six months of this financial year is tracking a little higher, but not significantly worse than recent budget forecasts
Rethink Success. Australia’s view on success today.
Digital economy opening new opportunities for successful careers.
Markets Today: Alive and kicking
Last week the USD regained its mojo largely thanks to President Trump's hint of a phenomenal tax policy announcement and on Friday the USD waivered, particularly against JPY when at a joint press conference with Japan’s PM Abe, President Trump responded to a question about currency devaluation saying that "we will all eventually...be at a level playing field." and then added "That's the only way you can fairly compete in trade”.
US Economic Update: February 2017
The US economy continues along the same moderate growth path it has experienced in its recovery from the Global Financial Crisis.
Growing food from big data
How the Internet of Things will revolutionise farm productivity.
Eye in the sky
How can satellites help to combat rising global pesticide usage?
Rich Gilmore is breaking new ground in natural value
Rich Gilmore left school hoping to become a wealthy stockbroker, before a trip to an African mangrove forest opened his eyes to saving the environment. “It was a life changing experience for me to see scientists and volunteers out in the field solving other people’s problems…”
Striking a balance
How farmers, environmentalists and investors are working together to save the Murray-Darling Basin.
Super dirt
Why is sustainable soil management so vital to our survival?
China Economic Update: February 2017
From a political perspective, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the TPP reflected US sentiment against globalisation, particularly in the mid-west rust belt.
Markets Today: Trump trade reignites
The Trump-trade was reignited overnight on the back of the President flagging an impending “phenomenal” tax announcement.
Markets Today: Message to my market
It’s been a rather listless overnight session as the US earnings season is drawing to a close with one of the best quarters of growth for quite some quarters. But that, and the tantalising prospect that corporate tax reductions and deregulation from the Trump Administration, and hopes of better growth, seems to be priced in.
Markets Today: The quiet achiever
In what has been a quiet night of data releases and tweets from President Trump, the USD has been the quiet achiever amid simmering political and fiscal uncertainties in Europe, softer oil prices, flat US equities and lower US Treasury yields.
Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien
It’s been something of a risk off session to open the week. There’s been a focus on the upcoming French Presidential elections, ECB President Draghi has been batting back criticism from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation (regretting nothing), US markets fretting about the extent of timing of Trump reflation, not to mention ongoing tweets.
Australian Markets Weekly: 6 February 2017
Fed pressure index signalling upside risks for US inflation and interest rates?
Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)
A bit of early 19th century opera to kick off the week (don’t fret, I’m sure we’ll be back in rock & roll mode for the rest of the week).
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy Outlook – February 2017
Prices across the base metals complex have generally been stronger than expected in recent months, prompting some upward revisions to our price forecasts
Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood
The supposedly “lively” conversation that President Trump and PM Turnbull had yesterday over the Australia-US refugee deal has gotten quite a deal of not just Australian press but international press coverage overnight.
Markets Today: Fed plays a straight bat; data goes Boom Boom Pow
The major event overnight was the US FOMC meeting where rates were left on hold as expected. There were very few changes to the post meeting statement with the Fed playing a straight bat. Markets were somewhat disappointed with Treasury yields and the US dollar reversing earlier gains that had occurred following stronger than expected US economic data.
Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations
More unwinding of the Trump lower taxes/higher infrastructure spending US$ reflation trade has again been the order of the day. The Bloomberg spot USD dollar index is down by ¾% as markets again sell the big buck, reacting to the latest statements from the new Administration, selling kicking off earlier in the session with some safe-haven buying of JPY and CHF in response to the immigration policies.
At your service: a snapshot of Australia’s booming service economy
Australia’s service sector already accounts for 70% of our GDP and shows no sign of slowing its growth. That means it’s never been more important to understand the where, what and how of Australia’s most important economic driver. NAB crunches the numbers for you.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016
Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.
Markets Today: Blue Monday
New Order’s Blue Monday is the best-selling 12 inch single of all time in Britain (mmm I wonder how many 12 inch singles are out there!) and is also the longest charting single at 7:25.
Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017
While we are receiving many questions about the impact of President Trump’s policies on the outlook for the US and global economies and markets, the most frequent question we are being asked about Australia is “why is NAB forecasting two interest rate cuts in 2017” (in May and August)?
US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP
We expect growth to face some headwinds in coming quarters but to strengthen later in the year and into the next, assuming the President delivers a fiscal stimulus to the economy
Markets Today: Little Red Rooster
A glance at Friday’s New York opening and closing levels for major FX rates tells us that the latest flurry of US data, including a slightly softer than expected Q4 GDP print and downside miss on headline durable goods orders, came and went without much fanfare. US yields dropped on the 1.9% headline GDP print while currencies and stocks did very little.
Markets Today: Jungle
Sydney music producer Flume claimed the top spot in Triple Js 2016 Hottest 100 yesterday, but many will consider the moral victor to have been Melbournian busker Tash Sultana for her brilliant ‘Jungle’.
Markets Today: CPI – Hot Potato (or cold spaghetti)?
Today’s 1994 classic Hot Potato by The Wiggles is likely to be seared into the memory banks of parents and children alike – likewise for your scribe. A staple the humble spud may be, but possibly an expensive one in the 4th quarter according to our economists.
Markets Today: Don’t worry baby
Economic reports have been scant overnight. Trump, trade, executive orders and a White House press briefing have provided wire feedstock for news and trade into Asia trade today.
Australian Markets Weekly: 23 January 2017
Apartment construction which has risen strongly over the past few years was reported by the Statistician to have declined in the September quarter.
China’s economy at a glance: January 2017
China records a comparatively strong finish to 2016, but Trump trade uncertainty adds downside risk to our moderate easing forecast for 2017.
US Trade Policy. What Now? January 2017
Re-building the US industrial base, aiming to “massively increase jobs, wages, incomes and opportunities for the people of our country” is the principal economic objective of the Trump Presidency.
Markets Today: Numero Uno
In a defiant and brief speech, President Trump made it clear that from now on “It's going to be only America first” and in what has now become a great economic debate he reiterated his view that “Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength”. Against this view, history and economic theory tells us that protectionism usually involves an increase in tariffs and a decline in trade.
NAB Markets Research: Outlook for 2017
The key views of NAB and BNZ's economists and strategists
Markets Today: Some like it hot
Markets continue to digest Yellen’s speech yesterday which was seen as mildly more hawkish and positive US economic data overnight played into that view. The ECB also met last night with Draghi coming off as slightly dovish, playing down the recent uptick in inflation and remaining committed to the asset purchase program.
On a fast boat to China
A free trade zone to expedite Australian food exports into China may soon become a reality. NAB’s Chief Customer Officer believes it’s a game changer for Australian agriculture.
Markets Today: Walking back to happiness
It’s been a reversal back to USD strength overnight – including a late session kick along from the Fed Chair, more on that below - the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.35% before she stepped up to the plate, and another ½% since.
Markets Today: Twice if you’re lucky
Never underestimate the ability of markets to discount the same news twice. Or in the case of the US dollar, the ability to ignore a relevant piece of news one day only to react with alarm to it a day or two later.
Gas and LNG Market Outlook: January 2017
While prices are likely to stay subdued for some time, increased volume will see the value of exports increase significantly.
In Focus: Dairy January 2017
2016 was a very tough year for many Australian dairy producers, with farmers beginning the year amid extremely dry conditions in key dairy regions and steep cuts to farmgate prices
Australian Markets Weekly: 16 January 2016
Against flatter job advertisements of late, job vacancies have been trending higher. Higher job vacancies are usually associated with a lower unemployment rate and greater employment growth
Markets Today: Happy Birthday
In 1979 President Carter endorsed a bill to have a holiday in honour of Martin Luther King (MLK), but a Conservative Congress at the time refused to pass the bill. Eventually President Reagan signed the holiday into law in 1983 and it was first observed three years later.
Markets Today: A hard rain’s a-gonna fall
Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 44th President of the United States (45th if you count Grover Cleveland as both the 22nd and 24th President) will capture the world’s attention on Friday.
Markets Today: Walking on a dream
Walking on a Dream was the inaugural 2008 hit song by Aussie electropop outfit Empire of the Sun. That seems an apt description of how markets have been since the election of Trump with a dream run for equities and the US dollar all premised on the idea of a Trump fiscal stimulus boosting growth and inflation. Now with inauguration just a week away (20 Jan), markets are asking “is it real”?
US Economic Update: January 2017
According to the most recent surveys, business conditions and household sentiment are solid, and on an upwards trend.
Markets Today: All shook up
The overnight session has been a tale of two halves, a dull affair ahead of Trump press conference and a volatile session post.
Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)
US small business owners tend to be Republican, and those who are member of the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) overwhelmingly so. Thus optimism among NFIB members surged to its highest level since 2004 in December and with the monthly increase, from 98.4 to 105.8, the largest since 1980.
2016 Year in Review: Capital Financing
Steve Lambert, EGM Capital Financing, explains, innovation and volatility again dominated 2016. Markets were challenged by social, political and economic events which brought about new opportunities for our customers. We delivered insights and solutions to help them face into the increasing environment of disruption and regulation.
Markets Today: Brexit Poker Face
Global equities were mostly lower overnight, dragged lower by the oil price. That added to an already uncertain tone following indications that the UK may be hurtling towards a harder Brexit than first thought.
Markets Today: Synergy
When thinking about a title for today’s note and the impact the US labour market report had on Friday’s session, Aristotle’s quote ” the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” seemed quite fitting, but way too long for a title.
Markets Today: Seasons Greetings
As the markets quieten down for the holiday break, we reflect on the tumultuous year we’ve just been through: Trump, Brexit, the rise of far-right politics and the tide of anti-immigration fervour.
Markets Today: Cause I got stamina
Tapas Strickland shows his knowledge of the Classics, describing yesterday’s RBA minutes as Delphic, in places.
Australian Markets Weekly: 19 December 2016
Australia’s population growth remains strong by historical and international standards at around 1.4% y/y. That is 338,000 persons in the past year – nearly equivalent to the population of Canberra being added to Australia each year.
Markets Today: We can work it out
Janet Yellen gave a talk this morning reinforcing the commentary around the strength of the US economy, pointing to steady growth in jobs and rising living standards. A less rosy picture for Australia, of course, but, not bad enough for ratings agencies to act.
Markets Today: Don’t Let Me Down
China’s capture of a US Navy Drone showed that the US dollar is not infallible.
Markets Today: Ding dong merrily on high
Shock and awe is how one London based analyst described the Saudi’s decision to cut oil production even further at the weekend.
Markets Today: I love the way you lie [GDP]?
Sterling was the worst performing G10 currency overnight, in part because of worst than expected industrial production figures.
Green bonds – fuelling a green economy
Experts from National Australia Bank say the challenges of climate change and countries' need for infrastructure funding mean the green bond market has enormous potential.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2016
Despite a slight moderation in NAB’s Business Survey conditions in the September quarter, NAB’s commercial property index rose 11 points to +16, with sentiment higher in all sectors.
NAB Independent Schools and Innovation Survey: Q3 2016
Innovation in independent schools led by doing things differently and cost efficiently.
Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016
With the RBA a keen inflation targetter, albeit within a flexible medium-term framework, each quarterly CPI reading provides an important update on current inflation trends and is a key input into the Bank’s forecasts.
How will Australians retire?
As Australia’s population ages and ‘baby boomer’ retirements head toward their zenith in 2025, a discussion on the Retirement Risk Zone, that is the 10 years leading to retirement, is timely.
Australian Markets Weekly: 10 October 2016
The past week has been dominated by bond yields moving higher as have oil prices.
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy Outlook – September 2016
The more favourable USD has been a source of support for most commodity markets in the first half of 2016, but heightened uncertainty has seen additional volatility across financial markets, including commodity markets, more recently.
Flight to quality
Asia-based bond investors surveyed by FinanceAsia and National Australia Bank are seeking safety in higher-rated credits.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: September 2016
The bigger picture – A Global and Australian economic perspective
Australian infrastructure: Better Infrastructure Initiative
Conversations about the role infrastructure plays often begins from the perspective of what we don’t yet have, what doesn’t work well, and how much more money we need to deliver better outcomes. NAB believes we are better served by reframing that conversation into one which first acknowledges the wealth of the existing infrastructure framework.
Infrastructure bonds: A missing market for retail investors?
We review July conditions and recommend overweight exposure in cash and alternative assets, with underweight positions in fixed interest, property and Australian equities, while keeping neutral exposure to international equities.
Markets Today: Poundcake
It’s been a rather uneventful night for most of the major currencies, with the possible exception of Sterling.
Markets Today: An American Trilogy
Europe had a quiet day with many continental countries observing Assumption day. The Stoxx 600 index ended the day flat and the FTSE100 climbed 0.36% aided by another move lower in Sterling.
New financial strategy builds infrastructure rewards for council
North Sydney Council has turned to some different financial strategies to create a more flexible funding structure that’s helped drive a series of multi-million dollar infrastructure projects.
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016
Global financial markets have digested the latest shock – the UK’s “Brexit” vote – quite well. In Australia, business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey
Global and Australian Forecasts: August 2016
Brexit has had less impact on the global economy than many feared.
Australian Markets Weekly: 8 August 2016
Last week’s RBA rate cut has strengthened the argument that the RBA is uneasy about the outlook for Australian inflation.
Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week
US equities indices edged a little bit higher on Friday despite mixed corporate earnings while European equities ended the day practically unchanged despite the fact that European Flash PMIs for July were better than expected.
Infrastructure Bonds: A missing market For retail investors?
This is the sixth in a series of reports prepared by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies for National Australia Bank aimed at explaining the potential role of corporate bonds in retail investor portfolios and promoting growth of the corporate bond market.
Markets Today: Feeling good
As we are about to press the send button, the RBNZ has just released it economic update and although a dovish tone was expected, the NZD has dropped 25/30pips to around 0.6988.
The world on two pages: July 2016
The Brexit decision has provided yet another shock to global financial markets.
Global & Australian Forecasts: July 2016
Brexit, the latest in a series of shocks to global financial markets, leads up to shave our global growth forecasts by 10 to 20 bps in 2016 and 2017.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2016
The overall narrative of the Survey has not changed this month, even in light of recent disruptions to financial market sentiment.
The world on two pages: June 2016
Equity markets have recovered much of the losses from earlier in the year but remain below last year’s peaks.
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016
This month’s NAB Business Survey remains true to theme of ongoing recovery in the non-mining economy, building on the already solid growth seen in the recent National Accounts.
Global & Australian Forecasts: June 2016
While global financial markets slumped and then recovered in the early months of the year, global growth has continued to remain disappointing and sub-trend.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q1 2016
Sentiment in Australian commercial property markets softened a little, but remains well above long-term average levels. Despite some pull back, CBD hotels and office markets continue leading the way, with NSW still at the forefront by state and WA floundering.
Australian Markets Weekly – NAB survey and employment data suggest little pressure for near-term RBA rate cut
The latest NAB business survey and labour market data accord well with the RBA’s policy stance – low inflation provides ample scope to ease monetary policy further should that be necessary to support the economy, though activity and labour market data do not suggest that such a move is necessary
The world on two pages – April 2016
There was an improved tone in global markets this month.
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2016
The forces shaping the economic outlook are broadly unchanged.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2016
NAB Business Survey suggests non-mining recovery is broadening, and bolstering confidence despite global uncertainties.
US Economic Update – 11 March 2016
Consumer confidence holding up, business sentiment stabilised in February
The world on two pages – March 2016
Global: We are not expecting any acceleration in global growth in 2016. Australia: The recovery across the non-mining economy remains on track.
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2016
We are not expecting any acceleration in global growth in 2016.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – February 2016
Improvement in business conditions adding to evidence of a buoyant non-mining recovery. Business confidence also resilient despite global uncertainty
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q4 2015
Despite an overall improvement in commercial property market sentiment, the survey reveals that fewer developers are planning to start new works in the short-term.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – January 2016
Business confidence is sub-trend, but holding up reasonably well in the face of financial turmoil. Business conditions eased, but still consistent with non-mining recovery
The World on Two Pages – January 2016
2016 got off to a bad start in global equity and commodity markets and in light of recent financial market turmoil in Australia, the NAB Monthly Business Survey provides a timely indication of how market movements have so far affected business sentiment.
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2016
We have lowered our 2016 global forecasts to 3.0% (from a revised down 2.9% in 2015)
Monthly Business Survey – December 2015
Business confidence resilient to financial market turmoil (for now). Business conditions suggest non-mining recovery remains on track
Online Retail Sales Index Monthly Update: November 2015
The latest seasonally adjusted NAB online retail sales index shows sales grew 0.7% in November, an improvement on the contraction in October.
NAB Group Economics: Special Report
Many Australians dream of a financial windfall that would significantly improve their lives forever, but how much is enough? In this special report, we ask over 2,000 Australians to tell us how much they need.
The World on Two Pages – December 2015
In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015
In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.
Monthly Business Survey – November 2015
Consistently above average business conditions are an encouraging sign that the apparent non-mining sector recovery continues to gain traction, despite relatively muted levels of business confidence.
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – October 2015
At -0.6% the latest seasonally adjusted NAB online retail sales index shows sales contracted in October, a deterioration on the revised 1.4% recorded in September.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2015
Office property re-emerges as the strongest commercial property sector. Overall sentiment in Australian commercial property markets has moderated a little, but it remains at elevated levels and continues to vary widely across sectors and states.
The added bonus of energy-efficiency
The Clean Energy Finance Corporation is working with NAB to make energy-efficient equipment more affordable. NAB’s Robert White discusses the benefits of investing in new technology.
The World on Two Pages – November 2015
Global growth remains sub-trend and there is little sign of an imminent acceleration in the pace of expansion while in Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction.
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015
In Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction. Recent outcomes from the business survey support this contention with business conditions holding up at a high level in October, and the unemployment rate holding steady.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – October 2015
Business conditions remain encouragingly robust, maintaining the solid gains obtained over the past year despite less than impressive levels of business confidence.
Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015
Based on incoming information, we have modestly reviewed our GDP forecasts to 2.6% in 2015/16 and 3.0% in 2016/17 (annual average). Overall, NAB Economics remain of the view that the recovery in the non-mining sector is slowly becoming more well entrenched.
The World on Two Pages – October 2015
We are still forecasting little to no pick up in the pace of global growth and our domestic forecasts are unchanged this month, with real GDP expected to expand by 2.4% in 2015/16 and 3.1% in 2016/17.
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2015
Global growth remains sluggish and below trend however in Australia, the ongoing high level of business conditions and trend improvement in key leading indicators.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015
There was a partial recovery in business confidence in September as the Government’s leadership uncertainties were resolved, while financial market volatility and emerging market concerns have moderated from the heights of the previous month – although market concerns remain elevated.
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015
The pace of growth in the big advanced economies has picked up, mainly reflecting a US recovery from weak first quarter growth. In contrast, Japan and the Euro-zone are not growing strongly and Canada is in recession.
The World on Two Pages – September 2015
There is increasing evidence that growth momentum is broadening across the the non-mining Australian economy – not limited to the dwelling sector – in response to the lower AUD and interest rates, with improvement particularly evident in services sectors.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015
Business conditions point to a further improvement in the non-mining economy, even as jitters in financial markets weigh on confidence. The conditions index jumped 5 points to +11 in August lifting the trend index to its highest level since late 2009.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2015
More positive signs emerge as NAB’s Commercial Property Index rises for the second consecutive quarter. Encouragingly, sentiment is now positive in all commercial property market segments, but remains very divergent across states.
The World on Two Pages – August 2015
Our forecasts for global growth to stay around the 3¼% yoy and locally, our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month – 2.4% in 2014/15, 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015
Global growth is running below trend limiting the pace of expansion in commodity demand. Output has been growing faster recently in some of the big advanced economies (notably the US and UK) and the Greek crisis has had little impact on activity across the rest of the Euro-zone.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015
The business confidence index remains positive, both trading conditions and profitability remain relatively elevated and the trend has held up around average levels. Our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month, with growth of 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.
The World on Two pages – July 2015
We have not changed our forecast for global growth this year (3.2%), but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015
Financial market volatility and the downside risks to global growth have been driven by the Chinese share market correction and the issues in Greece. Locally, lower interest rates and the AUD, strong housing prices and a post Budget kick in confidence appears to have driven better business outcomes.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015
Business confidence lifted again in the month of June – the highest level since September 2013. Confidence is now positive in all industries except mining and business conditions improved even more, in June – the highest level since last October.
Improving access to the Corporate Bond market for retail investors
NAB joins with the Australian Centre for Financial Studies to launch their report ‘Improving access to the Corporate Bond market for retail investors’ which assesses where the market currently is, the factors affecting its growth, and the impediments to connecting investors and issuers.
Australian Weekly Markets: Last chance for Greece, again
Here we are again, still writing about Greece. Will a deal be put together that is acceptable to Greece and its creditors? Greece is asking for debt relief, Europe asking for further economic reforms to pensions and taxation. The 11th hour for Greece is approaching, yet again.
The World on two pages – June 2015
NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, followed by a modest upturn in 2016 (largely driven by the US). And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015
There was no evidence of an acceleration in the pace of global growth in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and similarly mixed trends among the big emerging economies saw China slowing, India picking up and Brazil still very weak.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015
The recent Federal Budget and interest rate cut appears to have had a positive impact on business confidence – which moved up significantly in May - from +3 to +7 index points. This is the highest level of confidence since August 2014 and has helped to turn the trend more positive.
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015
April saw a renewed rise in beef and lamb prices, combined with stability across major grains, balanced against lower dairy, fruit and vegetable prices.
Lessons learnt from successful CEOs, World Business Forum (Sydney)
Three successful CEOs talk about the most significant challenges they’ve faced in growing their businesses and managing their own careers. Radek Sali from Swisse, Liz Butcher from ISGM and Nick Abboud from Dick Smith shared their experiences at World Business Forum with facilitator Professor Geoff Martin from Melbourne University.
NAB Charitable Giving index: Indepth report – 12 months to February 2015
Giving to charity grew by 2% over the year to February 2015. Growth slowed in most age groups and in all regions. Despite these challenges, the average donation size for all charities increased by $2 over the past year to $336 per donor.
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q1 2015
Positive signs emerge as NAB’s Commercial Property Index climbs to a 4-year high with a notable pick up in confidence among property developers.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015
Business confidence was unchanged in April. Until confidence lifts significantly it is difficult to see a sustained economic recovery developing – to date rate cuts have not appeared to do much and it will be interesting to see what this week’s Federal Budget will do.
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015
ASX 300 business confidence fell further in Q1 2015 to remain well below the general economy. Sentiment is particularly weak among very large construction firms. Business conditions while still positive also fell, with trading, profitability and employment all lower.
Markets Today: US Fed keeping options open with deliberately vague guidance
The FOMC statement issued earlier this morning has made it clear that there is no pre-determined timeline for Fed rate lift-off.
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015
The NAB Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, fell 1.7% (AUD) and 3.3% (USD) in March, led by lower beef, lamb, fruit, vegetable and sugar prices. Partial data for April to date points to a recovery in beef and lamb prices.
Australian Markets Weekly: Can we believe the ABS labour market data?
That is a key question for investors seeking to work out whether the RBA will ease again at the May Board meeting and furthermore whether the market is correct in pricing nearly two full interest rate cuts by February 2016
The World on two pages – April 2015
Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. We have fine tuned but not fundamentally changed our forecasts– 2014/15 2.3% and 3.0% in 2015/16. The non mining sector is still struggling to offset the impact on domestic demand.
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015
Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. While the Euro-zone and Japan are experiencing upturns, recent US data has disappointed. We have delayed the Fed starting till September (or later) and reduced US GDP in 2015 to 2.7%.
NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015
There were some tentative signs of improvement in the NAB Monthly Business Survey for March – with the post RBA cut fall in confidence reversed in March. Surprisingly, the lift was particularly pronounced in mining, although confidence is still lowest for this industry.
Australian Markets Weekly – Building boom continues plus Revised forecast path of US Fed Funds rate
NAB’s Australian economy forecast of 2.9% GDP growth over the course of 2015, picking up to 3.3% growth through 2016 encompasses 11.2% growth in dwelling investment through this year, and 6.9% forecast through 2016.
Your Money, Your Call: Are we in a yield bubble?
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by John Pearce from UniSuper and Nick Bishop from Aberdeen to discuss where rates are headed, equities with sustainable dividends, and whether we're in a bond yield bubble.
The 2014 Australia-China Trade Report
Julie Bishop launched the 2014 Australia-China Trade Report. Commissioned by the Australia China Business Council (ACBC), one of Australia’s most respected China engagement forums and sponsored by NAB, the report examines bilateral trade between the two countries.
Your Money, Your Call: The success of Europe
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, speaks with Tano Pelosi from Antares and Matthew Johnson from UBS about inflation and interest rates in Europe, along with the actions of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015
The Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, gained 2.1% (AUD) and 0.5% (USD) in February on the back of higher fruit, dairy, fibre and pulses prices, which offset mixed performance across grains and protein.
The World on two pages – March 2015
Global growth remains around 3%. Weaker prices for oil and other commodities will benefit spending power in most big advanced economies as well as in China. The domestic economy, in early 2015, has not gained momentum with another rate cut expected in the coming months.
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015
Global growth remains around 3% and, although the business surveys show a lift in sentiment in key advanced economies, there is still no clear evidence that the expected upturn in global growth to 3½% by the end of the year has commenced. Locally, we have not changed near term forecasts
Monthly Business Survey – February 2015
The RBA’s 25bp cut to interest rates in February did not appear to have the desired effect on firms ‘animal spirits’, with confidence actually deteriorating in the month. The index is now at its lowest level since before the Federal election in 2013 and is well below the long run average.
Australian Markets Weekly: Onshoring and US rate rise proximate
Covers the implications of Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls, previews important Australian Labour Market data and reports on increasing anecdotes that the lower $A is beginning to boost the domestic economy through onshoring.
Your Money, Your Call: The Federal Reserve and the global economy
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by Steve Goldman from Kapstream and Adam Goldstein from Skeggs Goldstein to chat about the global economy and key US economic indicators, and how they could affect US Federal Reserve decisions.
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014
Big business in Australia is losing confidence, affecting medium-term growth and capital expenditure plans. Overall confidence among larger firms has now fallen below its long-term average and is weaker than for smaller companies and the broader economy.
Your Money, Your Call: How to get return in a low yield environment
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by Steve Goldman from Kapstream and Adam Goldstien from Skeggs Goldstein to discuss how diversifying across asset classes during this time of low yield can still generate decent returns.
Understanding the mindsets of US investors
The US Private Placement market offers a rich source of long-term funds for a wide range of Australian corporates. Our latest survey reveals the key factors that influence US investor buying decisions and their expectations for 2015.
Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up
If there was any take away from last week’s January labour force report it was that a gradual trend rise in Australia’s unemployment rate remains in place. And this is despite some modest increase in the underlying pace of new job creation.
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015
2015 brings an expanded Rural Commodities Index, which now includes 28 commodities, up from eight. The Index increased 5.6% in January in AUD terms, as sharply higher beef prices - and to a lesser extent higher lamb, dairy and vegetable prices - offset mixed performance across grains.
The higher education sector: A new borrower in the market
Government funding for new infrastructure in the higher education sector has recently dried up. As a result, a number of universities are accessing capital markets and bank loans for their infrastructure financing needs – in turn offering significant opportunities for debt providers.
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2014
Sentiment in commercial property markets softened in Q4 after September’s promising gains. Retail sentiment (and to a lesser extent industrial) buck the trend, offset by falls in CBD hotels and office. Forward indicators are painting a mixed picture of the market.
Monthly Business Survey – January 2015
The latest survey shows that business confidence edged up a little, but it's still below long run averages. Confidence remains very weak in mining, consistent with lower commodity prices, but multi-year lows for the AUD likely contributed to a considerable improvement from last month.
Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off
The week opens with two conflicting pieces of economic news for markets, the strong US payrolls report and weak China trade data. NAB has also revised lower its $A forecasts. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for January surprised on the high side.
The World on two pages – January 2015
Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions (expansion in US, UK, India and China, weakness in Euro-zone, Japan, Latin America). Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015
Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries. Unemployment to continue to deteriorate but peak lower (6.6%) and later (Q4 2015).
Monthly Business Survey – December 2014
The survey again shows a patchwork economy with little-to-no momentum building. In December, conditions eased for the second successive month after October’s surprisingly strong result so they're now a touch below the long run average.
Funding Australia’s infrastructure future
Infrastructure Partnerships Australia estimates that $700 billion of funding is needed over the next decade to finance the long term infrastructure investments – the nation building – we need to secure our future. We look at the building blocks that are falling into place.
2014 Year in Review: Capital Financing
As Steve Lambert, EGM Capital Financing, explains, 2014 was the year that opened up new opportunities for customers - from the new funding model for local government to the higher education sector emerging as a new borrower in the market. We review the year in our magazine.
Australian Markets Weekly
Last Friday saw the third annual pre-Xmas interview of the RBA Governor by the Australian Financial Review. The headlines were: "Governor wants an $A at 75cents" and "RBA pushes back on rates cuts".
The World on two pages – December 2014
Global growth remained around 3% yoy in Q3, sightly below trend but it is expected to pick-up to 3½% in 2015 and 2016. Major differences in the strength of economic activity persist between regions with the US, India and China accounting for almost 2 ppts of forecast global growth.
Monthly Business Survey – November 2014
Last months spike in business conditions was again short-lived, pulling back towards long run average levels in November. Despite the drop, the overall trend is still looking much better than 12-18 months prior, while levels of capacity utilisation have continued to improve.
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014
Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies underpin faster growth of 3½% in 2015 and 2016.
Switching off
Every working environment has the potential to create stress but, when you’re running a small or medium enterprise (SME), the pressure can be particularly intense. Exercise, healthy eating and shedding unhealthy habits are recommended as some of the best methods to cope.
The World in 2015: driving sustainable development
The World in Gala Dinner evening, inspired by The Economist's annual The World In... publication, returned to Sydney last night. Helen Clark, UN Development Programme Administrator, shared how the UN is mobilising the expertise and ideas countries need to drive sustainable development.
The World in 2015: China, education, technology and policy
The World in Gala Dinner evening, inspired by The Economist's annual The World In... publication, returned to Sydney last night. China Business Editor and Shanghai Bureau Chief, Vijay V Vaitheeswaran, shared the publication’s key predictions for 2015.
The World in 2015: Daniel Franklin’s top 12 predictions
The World in Gala Dinner evening, inspired by The Economist's annual The World In... publication, returned to Sydney last night. Daniel Franklin, Executive Editor of The Economist and Editor of 'The World In…', shares his annual collection of forecasts for the year ahead.
Corporate Finance Insights – November 2014
This report uses our expertise from across a range of industry sectors. In this edition, we present a compilation of articles with the underlying theme on change, and we ask NAB’s Chief Financial Officer for his view of the barriers and challenges for the Australian business landscape.
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014
General Manager of NAB Agribusiness, Khan Horne says the falling Australian dollar is a real boost for agriculture, and combined with the recent announcement of the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement, conditions for 2015 are looking positive for agricultural exporters.
Your Money, Your Call: Why has the Federal Reserve lifted interest rates and dropped GDP?
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by Ken Hyman (Antares) and Francesco De Stradis (Ord Minnett) to discuss the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lift interest rates and drop GDP forecasts.
Your Money, Your Call: How to find a fund manager
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, asks John Moore from Northward Capital to explain what to look out for when searching for a fund manager.
Your Money, Your Call: Will the herd run to exit the carry trade?
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by Ken Hyman (Antares) and Francesco De Stradis (Ord Minnett), to consider whether the market will see 'herd instincts' kick in when investors exit the carry trade.
The World on two pages – November 2014
Global growth remains moderate and sub-trend with big variations between key economies. China and North America represent around one-third of global GDP but they currently account for around half of global growth.
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014
Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between the major economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies should underpin.
Monthly Business Survey – October 2014
Clearly the most surprising feature of the Survey was the sharp jump in business conditions in October (the largest monthly increase in the history of the survey). The improvement driven by sales and profits was relatively broad based –unlike the (short-lived) jump in July.
A new funding model for local government
Changes to the financial sector’s Basel III rules are making it expensive for councils to borrow from banks. NAB’s James Waddell explains how the Local Government Funding Vehicle (LGFV) will create efficiencies, reduce borrowing costs and open up new avenues for local council finance.
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014
Australians are giving more to charity than ever before, with the average annual donation size for all charities increasing by 3.6 per cent ($11) to $315 per donor. Overall charitable giving growth also continues an upward trend, increasing by 6.4 per cent in the 12 months to August 2014.
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014
ASX 300 business confidence gained momentum in the September quarter, surpassing the broader economy. Conditions were broadly unchanged - trading and profitability were stronger, however the slight improvement was offset by deteriorating employment…
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2014
Overall sentiment in Australian commercial property markets turns positive for the first time since early-2011, but WA continues to weaken. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said "NAB’s Commercial Property Index rose to +2 points in Q3, its first positive read since March 2011.”
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014
The overall price outlook for rural commodities stabilised somewhat in September and early October as a falling AUD blunted the impact of lower global prices.
The World on two pages – October 2014
Global growth was around 3% in the first half of 2014, below trend and with marked variations in performance between major economies. North America continues to perform strongly with solid growth in both the US and Canada.
MTN Market update
Director, Corporate Debt Markets Origination at NAB, Brad Scott discusses the recent developments in the Market Term Notes (MTN) market, along with the outlook for the rest of the year and the opportunities that are opening up for investors.
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014
Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with GDP expanding by a sub-trend 3% yoy and concern over weakness in Japan and the Euro-zone offsetting solid growth in the US and UK. Chinese forecasts unchanged.
Monthly Business Survey – September 2014
Business confidence lost ground in September –lowest level since pre election - in the face of a persistently soft operating environment for many firms. Forward orders remained soft, prompting de-stocking and competitive pricing which appears to have weighed on profitability.
AFR Special Report: Social Impact Investing
Following a recent NAB-hosted roundtable event on Social Impact Investing, The Australian Financial Review today released editorial covering the topic from two journalists who were in attendance, James Dunn and Jonathan Shapiro.
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014
The overall outlook for rural commodities deteriorated in August and September on account of a weak finish to winter rains in many areas combined with forecasts of abundant global grain supplies and lower prices for major agricultural commodities.
Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)
“The index shows that Australia’s engagement with Asia is dominated by product imports and not surprisingly, our engagement is clearly strongest with China across all sizes of business. But, it is higher for SMEs than the ASX 300” said Alan Oster.
Your Money, Your Call: What is a Carry Trade?
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, asks Mercer's Russell Clarke and Chris Joye from the AFR to explain what a Carry Trade is.
Your Money, Your Call: Longevity and how it’s changing the asset allocation game
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, chats with Mercer's Russell Clarke and Chris Joye from the AFR about longevity, and how it’s a game changer for asset allocation.
Your Money, Your Call: European economic outlook and challenges
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, discusses the economic outlook for Europe with Grant Eshuys (Citibank) and Mark Bayley (Aquasia), and together they explore the challenges the European nations are facing.
The World on two pages – September 2014
Weakness in Japan, stagnation in the Euro-zone and a hard landing in Latin America have resulted in a slowdown in the pace of global growth through the first half of 2014. World GDP growth reached 3.4% yoy in late 2013, it slowed to 3.1% yoy in March qtr 2014 and 2.9% yoy in June qtr.
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014
Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with stagnation in the Euro-zone sparking deflationary concern and ECB action while Japanese demand is still struggling to recover from April’s tax rise.
Monthly Business Survey – August 2014
Business confidence remains resilient despite easing a little in August, supported by positive forward orders, subdued cost pressures and more stable consumer confidence. Positive business conditions are also helping despite falling back in the month.
Australian Business Diversity Index – Q2 2014
The inaugural NAB Australian Business Diversity Index is a new addition to NAB’s Quarterly Business Survey, and it aims to help Australian industries and businesses better understand diversity performance, in an effort to drive change.
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014
Australian beef prices are forecast to increase 3.5 per cent in 2014-15 on the back of a 4 per cent fall in production as producers rebuild herds, according to the latest NAB Agribusiness Rural Commodities Wrap.
Australian Markets Weekly
As part of the current local reporting season last week, we heard that both the Gladstone and Australia Pacific LNG projects are on track and on budget.
Your Money, Your Call: Are you a disengaged investor?
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, chats with Mercer's Sue Wang and the National Party's Kevin Hogan about disengaged investors - people who are uninterested in closely monitoring their superannuation - and the importance of more simple and transparent products for these people.
Your Money, Your Call: The threat posed by shifting Australian demographics
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, discusses how changes in Australia's demographics threaten to have major impacts upon the Australian economy with Mercer's Sue Wang and the National Party's Kevin Hogan.
Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture
The direct impact to Australian agricultural producers of the Russian Government’s embargo on most food imports is likely to be relatively small. However the secondary impacts are likely to be of greater concern for Australian producers.
Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014
Weak retail trade and net exports point to soft GDP growth in Q2. Headwinds remain, but business conditions jumped to four year high, while, business confidence, orders and capacity utilisation all looking better. We have trimmed our global forecasts.
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014
Global growth remains moderate but monthly trade and industrial growth continues to slow. Economic conditions mixed between regions with solid upturns in the UK and US, weakness in Japan and signs of slowing in the Euro-zone. Emerging market economies still driving most global growth
NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014
Business confidence again surprised on the upside, supported by better business conditions (largely reflecting sales and profits) and a surge in retailer confidence. Firms still unfazed about the Budget (for now). Conditions jumped to a four year high
The future of clinical trials in Australia
Clinical trials provide access to new treatments, contribute to Australia’s economy and support our public sector institutions. Dr Brendan Shaw, Medicines Australia Chief Executive, discusses the challenges and opportunities that are shaping our innovative medicines industry.
Developing a meaty supply chain across Asia
One of the largest vertically integrated supply chain organisations in the world, Australian Country Choice (ACC) is looking to expand its supply of high quality meat into Asia. CEO David Foote discusses the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Your Money, Your Call: How would a property market fall affect the banks?
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, chats with Adam Goldstien from Skeggs Goldstien and Simon Ibbetson from Millinium about the property markets and how a change in these markets could affect inflation and therefore the banks.
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q2, 2014
NAB Commercial Property Index fell -3 to -6 points in Q2 and continues to track below business confidence. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said: “Sentiment was weaker in all market segments, except CBD hotels, and also negative in all states, especially in WA.”
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014
Business confidence among Australia’s largest firms dropped significantly – from a position of above average confidence relative to the broader economy to marginally below. Businesses are reacting to the subdued domestic demand outlook.
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014
The 2014-15 Australian wheat season is off to a good start in most growing areas following autumn rain, and domestic prices are at a premium to international levels due to concerns about the impact of a dry spring.
Your Money, Your Call: Are we in bubble territory?
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, chats with Adam Goldstien from Skeggs Goldstien and Simon Ibbetson from Millinium about which asset classes are facing bubbles, along with discussing some markets where good value lies.
Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014
After rising through 2013, the main business surveys have gone sideways in 2014 and the pace of global growth has slipped slightly. We have lowered our global GDP forecasts for 2014 from 3.4% to 3.2%.
Your Money, Your Call: The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by NAB Head of Research Peter Jolly and Laminar economist Stephen Roberts to discuss the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet.
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014
Moderate global growth continues after early 2014’s slowing, resulting in slightly lower growth forecasts in 2014 but nearer trend in out years. Mixed picture among advanced economies as US & Euro-zone growth disappoints expectations but UK expansion stays solid...
Monthly Business Survey – June 2014
Business confidence recorded an unexpected increase in the month, with firms apparently shrugging off the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence that followed May’s Federal budget. Firms are sticking to their expectation for stronger activity despite business conditions remaining
Your Money, Your Call: Economic update
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by NAB Head of Research Peter Jolly and Laminar economist Stephen Roberts to discuss the Australian and US economies, along with the Australian Federal Budget and issues posed by our ageing population.
Your Money, Your Call: Update on cash rates and the RBA
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, chats about where interest rates are headed and their subsequent impact on term deposits with AFR columnist, Chris Joye and Montgomery Investment Management strategist, Andrew Macken.
Your Money, Your Call: US Federal Outlook for 2014-15
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, discusses the 2014-15 outlook for the US Federal reserve and interest rates with AFR columnist, Chris Joye and Montgomery Investment Management stategist, Andrew Macken.
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2014
Supported by still-low bond yields and more positive economic data from China and the US, global equity markets maintained their upward trend in May to close higher in general. However, commodities markets were more mixed.
Your Money, Your Call: Simple bond legislation and how it’s opening up the bond market
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by FIIG Analyst Gavan Madson and FNArena Analyst Rudi Filapek-Vandyck to discuss the proposed legislation to be introduced known as 'simple bond legislation', which has the intention of opening the bond market up to retail investors.
Your Money, Your Call: Aged based investing
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, introduces the concept of aged-based investing in corporate bonds and how institutional players are becoming active in this space.
Large scale greenfield agri-business development
The Australian project finance market is widely considered a world leader when it comes to assessing the financing of greenfield development risk. Michael Clarke looks at how mining/resource project financing may be a helpful paradigm for financing large-scale greenfield agri developments.
Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014
The generally upward trend in advanced economy purchasing manager surveys began to fade through late 2013 and 2014 and that has been followed by a levelling out in the rate of growth in world trade and industrial output.
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014
Global growth levelled off through late 2013 and early 2014, partly due to bad weather hitting North America. Advanced economy upturn looks set to continue as interest rates stay low and as the peak in fiscal consolidation has passed
Monthly Business Survey – May 2014
Business confidence survived the government’s ‘tough budget’ intact, but business conditions eased again (reflecting sales). Employment and profits were steady at soft levels. Conditions are mixed across industries, but are generally negative outside of services
Your Money, Your Call: Are cash investments affected by inflation
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, answers a viewer question on inflation and its impact upon cash investments with FIIG Analyst Gavan Madson and FNArena Analyst Rudi Filapek-Vandyck.
Insights from Michael Porter from the World Business Forum (Sydney)
Professor Michael Porter of Harvard Business School and Director of the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, discusses the world of opportunities available to companies that are willing to recalibrate their thinking around strategy.
Your Money, Your Call: Bond Access Service evolving the bond market
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, introduces the 'Bond Access Service', a way in which to easily access the bond market.
Your Money, Your Call: Volatility and its effect on self-mananaged super funds
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, outlines the concept of market volatility, absorbing volatility and what it means for self-managed super funds.
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2014
There are signs of stabilisation in the growth in the US and China: the US Fed proceeded with another US$10 billion cut in their monthly quantitative easing program to US$45 billion, while Chinese industrial activity gained some support from a series of targeted stimulus policies.
Your Money, Your Call: Where is The Equity Market Going?
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, discusses what is happening in the Equity Market with FNArena analyst Rudi Fliepek-Vandyck, and how 2014 is looking like the year that the investors from the sidelines will come back to the share market in light of volumes coming back.
Your Money, Your Call: BHP and capital expenditure’s impact on inflation
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, discusses growth of BHP and the impact of capital expenditure on inflation with Gavan Madson, Analyst at FIIG and FNArena Analyst Rudi Filapek-Vandyck.
Your Money, Your Call: Developments in the Corporate Bond Market
In this episode of Your Money, Your Call, NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, looks at the developments in the corporate bond market, including Simple Bond Legislation, with AFR columnist, Chris Joye and Montgomery Investment Management strategist, Andrew Macken.
Your Money, Your Call: Qantas and cyclical yield performance in differing markets
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by FIIG Analyst Gavan Madson and FNArena Analyst Rudi Filapek-Vandyck to discuss Qantas credit default swaps, and cyclical yield outperforming in rising markets and underperforming in falling markets.
Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014
Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey handed down the 2014 Federal Budget last night and there’s plenty to talk about. Our team of economists have analysed what it means for you, your business and a variety of key industries with our summary fact sheets.
What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure
The infrastructure sector was one of the big winners in the Federal Budget, with the share of infrastructure spending rising in both dollar terms and as a share of government spending. This should go some way in helping to fill the void left by retreating mining investment.
What the federal budget means for Australian business
Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian business. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.
What the Federal Budget means for the health sector
The key focus related to health in this year’s Budget is savings. The introduction of GP co-payments, changes to PBS provisions, Medicare safety nets and indexation arrangements will contribute significant savings. We assess the key initiatives impacting Australia’s health sector.
What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness
Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian agribusinesses. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.
What the Federal Budget means for the Education sector
There’s a lot to talk about following last night’s Federal Budget announcement. NAB’s team of economists have analysed what last night’s Federal Budget means for the Education sector and outlined key initiatives.
Industry perspective: Federal Budget and infrastructure
Brendon Lyon, CEO of Infrastructure Partnerships Australia, says the 2014 Federal Budget is an excellent outcome for the national infrastructure sector. He shares his views on the largest-ever national infrastructure investment programme.
2014 Federal Budget – all the insights and expert analysis
There’s a lot of change in this year’s budget, so understanding how the Federal Budget impacts you and your business can be challenging. That’s why our team of economists and industry experts have been working around the clock to break it down.
Monthly Business Survey – April 2014
Business conditions more subdued in April but confidence up marginally – shrugging off ‘tough budget’ rhetoric. Sales eased slightly, employment slightly better but still soft, profits weaker. Conditions remain volatile and mixed across industries…
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2014
Charitable giving grew by more than 8% in the year to February 2014, which is a substantial improvement on the 3.3% rate of growth seen in the previous year. Overall, charitable giving has grown by almost 19% since December 2010.
Your Money, Your Call: My Super reforms explained and aged based investing
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd is joined by Sue Wang from Mercer to explain the 'My Super' reforms and how changing your superannuation investment strategy as you age can make a big difference on your retirement.
2014 Federal Budget preview
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster provides a pre-budget overview of what he thinks we can expect to hear from Treasurer Joe Hockey’s first Federal Budget announcement next week.
Your Money, Your Call: What to look for when choosing to invest in a company
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, talks with two analysts about what they look for apart from growth when analysing a company - including finance risk, business risk, management history, assets, gearing, mix of debt and equity.
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2014
Globally, commodity markets experienced heightened volatility in March, with the concerns of a slowdown in China and its first domestic bond default triggering some investor risk aversion.
China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses
Patrick Vizzone, Regional Head of Food & Agribusiness, Asia, Institutional Banking reflects on how the outcomes of last November’s Third Plenary Session of China’s Communist Party’s Central Committee may shape the Australian agriculture sector.
Why it’s important to understand Sanctions and Embargoes
When running a business it’s important to understand your obligations in relation to domestic and international sanctions and embargoes, and how they may potentially impact your business before entering into arrangements with offshore customers and/or their agents.
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q1, 2014
NAB Commercial Property Index rises above long-term average, but overall still negative (-3 points) and below NAB Business Confidence. Sentiment stronger in all markets, except office (unchanged) and in all states (except NSW and WA). Forward expectations however softer.
Your Money, Your Call: Key considerations when opening a SMSF
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, discusses the issues and strategies around setting up a self-managed super fund (SMSF) with Sue Wang from Mercer and Chris Black from the Laminar Group.
A Budget for the Ages – Federal Budget 2014
Ahead of the upcoming Federal Budget, there is a lot of focus on the Commission of Audit’s findings, and putting the Budget on a sustainable medium term path as the population ages, health and pension costs rise, and the proportion of tax payers declines.
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014
Business conditions for ASX 300 maintained momentum in the first quarter of 2014 - the broader economy weakened as it dipped back into negative territory. Confidence for larger firms surged to its highest level in the 3-year history of the survey.
Your Money, Your Call: BHP and inflation
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by FNArena analyst Rudi Filapek-Vandyck. They begin by discussing investing in BHP stock, before assessing inflation - including current forecasts and how velocity, innovation and the labour market can impact upon it.
Robots at your service
Robots are on the march. Most of them work on assembly lines, building cars, making electronic devices and processing food, drugs and chemicals. But robots are spreading beyond the factory - a trend that will accelerate in 2014.
A fresh look at Australia in the Asian Century
Australia’s role in securing the food, water and supply chains of Asia will be dependent on our ability to embrace change and innovation. Dr. Ken Henry looks at the opportunities that exist for Australian businesses in the Asian century.
Your Money, Your Call: Miners now a dividend play
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, discusses the current trends in mining stocks and why they've become attractive to dividend hunters with FNArena analyst Rudi Filapek-Vandyck.
Your Money, Your Call: Setting up a self-manager super fund
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd discusses setting-up a self-managed superannuation fund with Sue Wang from Mercer.
Your Money, Your Call: What the Corporate Bond Market is and why it’s important
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, chats with Steve Lambert, Executive General Manager of Capital Markets at NAB about the evolution of the Corporate Bond Market, why it's important and how it relates to the individual investor.
Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014
The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Some of this reflected the disruptive impact of bad weather on supply chains but the March business survey results suggest a levelling out in the pace of growth
Monthly Business Survey – March 2014
Business conditions lifted slightly in March, but remained at relatively subdued levels, weighing on business optimism. Confidence still positive but softened to its lowest post-election level to be below long-run trend.
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014
Global economy growing around trend but signs in early 2014 that accelerating growth phase has ended. Mixed conditions across regions with advanced economies providing more of global output expansion as Chinese growth rate trends down.
Winning Woolworths 2013 Supplier of the Year
Montague Fresh fought off tough competition to win the prestigious Woolworths 2013 Supplier of the Year Award. Ray Montague and his son Scott discuss the key to their success and how things have changed during their 50-year relationship with Woolworths.
The talk of the town: NAB business wrap
There’s been a lot for Aussie businesses to talk about recently, from shoes to defence contracts - Australian and global markets appear to be bursting with opportunities. Here's a selection of business insights to help you uncover the opportunities across all business sectors in 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014
Global equity and commodity markets exhibited increased volatility in the past month, caused by heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, adverse weather events in the US and news of a slowing Chinese economy. December quarter GDP result for Australia was close to trend.
Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014
The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Nevertheless, this softer note probably reflects bad weather disrupting supply chains.
Monthly Business Survey – February 2014
Recent recovery short lived? Business conditions back-pedalled sharply in February reversing around half post election gains. Confidence softened but still remains marginally above trend. Sales and employment fell markedly during the month, with the latter pointing to very weak labour
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.
The talk of the town: NAB Business wrap
M&A has been a big theme recently, with entrepreneurs and established businesses alike snapping up opportunities. Air-con was a burning issue and property developers were dancing at the prospect of better funding and more opportunities.
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013
The Manufacturing Activity Index continued with its slow improvement in Q4, supported by strong business confidence and falling labour costs. The index implies activity in the manufacturing industry expanded by 0.5% in Q4.
The talk of the town: NAB Business wrap
There’s been a lot for Aussie businesses to talk about recently – from the action on Melbourne’s Chapel Street to where to find the richest retirees. Here’s a selection of recent business insights to help you uncover the opportunities across all business sectors in 2014.
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q4, 2013
Sentiment rises further in Q4, with NAB’s Commercial Property Index reaching a 2-year high (but still negative overall). Improvement driven mainly by office and retail, although both segments still under-performing. Sentiment edged up in all states bar Qld and SA/NT.
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013
Business conditions for larger firms improved significantly in the December quarter – outperforming firms in the broader economy. However, confidence weakened slightly for larger firms – dropping below conditions and breaking away from the exuberance of the broader economy.
Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – February 2014
How to add Australian Debt Securities & Corporate Bonds to a portfolio. The fourth research report examining the Australian corporate bond market. In this report we place the Australian market in an international context and speculate on what the future holds for the asset class.
How to recruit the best people for your business
Finding and keeping the right people is fundamental to the success of any business. Gavin O’Meara, Manager of People and Culture at Ramsay Health Care, explains how planning, preparation and ongoing support can help you build an engaged and productive team.
Monthly Business Survey – January 2014
Business conditions maintained last months momentum and is approaching 3 year highs while confidence was up for the first time in 4 months – both near or above trend levels. Employment index much better, but still suggests soft labour market conditions.
Corporate Finance Insights – February 2014
The reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors. In this edition we are pleased to present a compilation of articles with an underlying theme around the Australian opportunity in the growing Asian region.
The talk of the town: NAB Business wrap
There’s been a lot for Aussie businesses to talk about recently - from community newspapers to consumption of whiskey. Here's a selection of recent business insights to help you uncover the opportunities across all business sectors.
The perfect pitch
Pitching for new business is a fine art. For the last six years, as CEO of the Victorian Major Events Company – which has won such iconic events as the 2006 Commonwealth Games, the 2010 Cycling World Championships and the Formula 1 Grand Prix – Brendan McClements knows how to get it right.
Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014
Business surveys and partial data on trade and industrial output show moderate global economic growth continuing through to the end of 2013. There are mixed trends across Emerging markets, with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.
Monthly Business Survey – December 2013
Are we at a turning point? Business conditions jump to more than 2½ year high, while confidence broadly unchanged – both now near trend levels. Sales and profits up sharply – especially in wholesale, transport and services – reducing excess capacity slightly.
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.
Will the dollar fall and property rise?
The big question for 2014 is whether the Australian dollar will keep trending lower with perhaps a secondary question about whether Australian property will continue to boom. According to Business Spectator’s Alan Kohler - yes and yes.
The talk of the town: NAB business wrap
There’s been a lot for Aussie businesses to talk about so far in 2014 - from weather predictions to our reading habits. Here’s a selection of recent business insights to help you uncover the opportunities across all business sectors in 2014.
Emerging opportunities for facility management providers
As our population ages and demand for facility management services increases, hospitals are doing their best to manage costs. Ivan Fernandez, Industry Director at Frost & Sullivan, suggests ways for facility management providers to identify new opportunities and overcome challenges.
Pedal to the metal
The limp performance of metals and bulk commodities over the past couple of years has resembled a unicycle rather than the superbike of previous years. According to Simon Wright of The Economist, the 2014 outlook for demand is rosier and commodity prices should start climbing once again.
Your Money, Your Call: Researching stocks and Managed Discretionary Accounts
NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by Sue Wang from Mercer and Zach Zacharia from Centra Wealth to discuss ideas behind researching stocks before looking at developments in Managed Discretionary Accounts.
Digging deeper
Some of the world’s fastest-growing economies in 2014 will be in Africa. Since 2001, Africa’s GDP has expanded more quickly each year than the global average. In the past decade, only the block of developing Asian economies, led by China, has grown faster than Africa.
The Middle Kingdom’s Australian frontier
Start to prepare for a new era in the Australian Chinese relationship. Well within five years, instead of simply looking at Chinese manufacturing, Australia will look at the tourist bookings due to a very big rise in Chinese tourism.
Business View Magazine – Summer 2013
The summer edition of Business View Magazine explores the ecosystem behind the business of sport, looking at how entrepreneurs working in and with the sports sector deal with changes in the business environment. Download the free iPad edition via our new publications app NAB Think.
Mining and metals firms and the slowing of the super cycle
Companies in the industrial raw materials sector are facing a new era. For years, miners of resources such as iron ore, base metals and coal enjoyed a boom driven by incredible demand from China and other emerging markets that were urbanising and investing heavily in infrastructure.
Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013
September industrial output and broader measures of quarterly GDP are finally showing economic growth starting to lift in line with both the business surveys and our forecast for a global upturn in 2014 (growth at 3½% unchanged).
Sanctions and embargoes: how they can impact your business
Do you know how sanctions and embargoes work and how they can impact your business? As an agribusiness it's important to understand your obligations in relation to domestic and international sanctions before entering into arrangements with offshore providers and/or their agents.
Monthly Business Survey – November 2013
Business conditions and confidence broadly unchanged - with confidence still much higher than conditions. While still weak, business conditions appear to be trending higher. Trading conditions up - especially mining and manufacturing - with capacity utilisation off its recent lows.
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies see faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2013
Global growth remains at a moderate sub-trend pace and it’s expected to pick up to slightly below trend in 2014. However, NAB business conditions remain weak and forward indicators deteriorated slightly. There are still no signs of a recovery in non-mining investment.
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Q3, 2013
Commercial property market sentiment improved slightly in Q3, in line with a modest pick-up in confidence also seen in NAB’s Quarterly Business Survey. However, NAB’s Commercial Property Index is still deeply negative (-13) and below its long-term average (-7).
Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013
Global growth rose from 2.4% to 2.8% between March and June quarters and we are expecting 2.9% for 2013 overall, increasing to 3.5% next year. The national accounts and business surveys show a quickening pace of growth in the big advanced economies with the UK and Japan the standout.
Monthly Business Survey – October 2013
Firms reassess their confidence on the outlook as business conditions undershoot again. Capacity utilisation falls sharply - especially in manufacturing, construction, mining and retail - despite low interest rates and improved housing and equity markets.
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing faster recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Mixed trends across emerging markets with solid Chinese growth but disappointing outcomes in India.
Wheat’s season of contrast
It’s a season of stark contrast for Aussie wheat growers, with those in the west and south set for a bumper season while those in the east are doing it tough. International factors are also placing downward pressure on prices, with Canada producing one of its biggest wheat crops on record.
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013
Donations grew 2.5% (12-month average) in August with an average annual donation of $312 per donor. Giving grew fastest for “Other” (12.8%) and Health & Disability (9.1%) charities, but fell for Humanitarian Services (-3.2%) and Medical Research & Services (-2.4%) charities.
Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – October 2013
How to add Australian Debt Securities & Corporate Bonds to a portfolio. We bring you the third of five research reports examining the Australian corporate bond market. In this report we cover the important topic of accessing the fixed income market and the various methods investors can use to access debt securities and corporate bonds.
A healthy future for all? Improving food quality for Asia
Discussions of food security in Asia have often centred on the issue of supply, but now the emphasis is shifting from quantity to quality. The ability to address the issue of food quality is complicated by the increasing complexity of the food supply chain in Asia.
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3, 2013
The Manufacturing Activity Index was largely unchanged in Q3 – with positive trends for business confidence offset by negative ones for labour and purchase costs and final product prices. The index implies a slight increase quarterly manufacturing activity - at around +0.4%.
Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013
After a period where the data showed accelerating growth in the big advanced economies, the latest numbers have been more mixed. Although an upturn is still under way, the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.
Monthly Business Survey – September 2013
Animal spirits lift again. Confidence surges to its highest level in 3½ years. Business conditions, however, still subdued - with employment poor. Signs of better conditions in finance/ business/ property and construction.
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013
Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed - but growth momentum has slowed a touch through mid-2013. Composition of global growth still shifting toward advanced economies with mixed trends in emerging markets.
Responding to the seismic shift in Agriculture
The 2011 Agricultural Census reveals an evolving sector - in terms of both farm and farmer. With bigger farms and more sophisticated owners to contend with, service providers need to prepare for a new and challenging landscape.
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2013
Global financial markets rallied strongly when US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) defied market expectations of a modest tapering and decided to leave retain the status quo on the pace of asset purchases.
Corporate Finance Insights – September 2013
In this edition of Corporate Finance Insights we focus on the value that can be unlocked in managing working capital, hear perspectives from industry leaders and share insight from NAB specialists into the major trends and opportunities for working capital management.
Will retiring baby boomers leave gaps in healthcare?
More than a third of Australia’s general practitioners, nurses and specialists are over the age of 50, so what will happen when they all retire? Dr Henry Cutler, Director, Head of Health Economics at KPMG, discusses possible skills shortages and ways to ameliorate any emerging problems.
State Economic Update – September 2013
The NAB Quarterly Business Survey showed a marginal deterioration in overall business conditions in the June quarter, with the level remaining close to four year lows. All states experienced difficult conditions in the quarter.
Australia & the World on two pages – September 2013
Recent business surveys show a solid and synchronised lift in business confidence across the advanced economies whose annualised 3-month industrial growth now exceeds that of the emerging economies.
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013
Recent data show a promising lift in business sentiment in big advanced economies but financial volatility hitting emerging market growth prospects (India, ASEAN, and Brazil). Little change in headline global growth forecast with advanced economy upturn set to drive faster world economy
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2013
Global equity markets recovered earlier losses as it became clear that central banks would not rapidly turn off their monetary easing, although we still expect the US Federal Reserve to start tapering in the coming few weeks.
Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013
Central bank statements reinforcing their guidance that interest rates should stay low for a long time yet across the big advanced economies, have supported financial markets. Recent business surveys and industrial data point to an upturn in growth in these advanced economies
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013
Global growth unchanged as modest country forecast revisions cancel each other out. We see moderate acceleration in global growth to around trend in 2014. Recent data show promising signs in big advanced economies while conditions still softening in emerging market economies.
Monthly Business Survey – July 2013
Business conditions remain at 4 year lows while confidence slumps to 8 month low - despite a falling AUD and lower interest rates. Conditions very poor in manufacturing, construction, mining, retail and wholesale; WA now the weakest state.
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – June 2013
Sentiment in the commercial property market weakened notably in Q2 2013. The recent softening in economic conditions (and more subdued outlook for GDP growth) seem to have weighed most heavily in office and industrial markets, with retail unchanged (but very weak).
Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013
The government’s economic forecasts now recognise the softness of the domestic economy and the weaker outlook for commodity prices and incomes. In the near term the Budget now looks to be slightly adding to growth (rather than detracting as at Budget time).
A smarter way to trade in China
If you’ve been thinking about improving the efficiency of your importing or exporting business with Australia’s largest trading partner, there’s now a more efficient way to settle trade transactions in China. Hear the latest insights from NAB’s team of experts.
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2013
Global equity markets have come under downward pressure, but the latest data on activity is slightly more positive. Business sentiment about current conditions has picked up in advanced economies and growth in global industrial output is faster.
More value for less effort – the secret of Lean
Being Lean worked for Toyota - could it work for you? Chris Foster, KPMG Director, National LEAN Service Line Leader, explains the five basic principles of the Lean system and how doing less work can create more customer value.
Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds – July 2013
Australian Debt Securities and Corporate Bonds - What’s the risk? Important considerations for Investors. We bring you the second of five research reports examining the Australian corporate bond market, prepared for National Australia Bank by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies
Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013
Equity and currency market volatility reflects uncertainties over the pace at which the Fed might alter US monetary policy, Chinese authorities might clamp down on shadow banking and the potential impact of the Bank of Japan’s move to greater monetary easing.
Monthly Business Survey – June 2013
Business conditions and capacity utilisation slump to a four year low. Confidence a little better but still below trend. Conditions very bad in retail, mining and manufacturing, despite low interest rates and falling AUD, though signs a little better for exports.
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013
Global growth forecasts unchanged. A few signs that activity is picking up in some advanced economies but India and Brazil still soft and growing concerns over pace of Chinese growth. Markets focussed on central bank policy driving greater volatility in equities and currencies.
Global FX Strategist – July 2013
The asymmetric (downside) risks we alluded to in our previous AUD forecast update have eventuated and we have now made further downward revisions. The Fed's return to the (early stages) of policy normalcy in itself justifies an AUD/USD in the low 0.80s.
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2013
Global financial markets have taken a dive at the suggestions of the US Federal Reserve scaling back quantitative easing soon and the drying up of new stimulus initiatives by the Japanese government.
Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013
The consensus view is that the pace of global growth should accelerate through the course of 2013 as recessions end in Western Europe, Abenomics lifts Japanese growth, the US continues its moderate expansion and solid growth continues in the big emerging economies.
Monthly Business Survey – May 2013
Business conditions remain at low levels (marginally higher) with unchanged mediocre confidence levels. Conditions better in wholesale, manufacturing and construction, but mining worsens. Any confidence gained from falling dollar and May rate cut have been undermined by domestic weakness
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013
Global growth forecasts little changed. Still waiting to see firm evidence that the expected acceleration in activity through 2013 is beginning. Australian economy now at a watershed as mining investment slows and domestic economy struggles.
FX Strategy: AUD Forecasts Revised Lower – June 2013
We have been flagging likely downward revisions to our AUD forecast for a couple of weeks now, following first the somewhat unexpected May RBA rate cut then the range-break higher in US Treasury yields
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2013
With the exception of dairy, the prices of most other agricultural commodities have headed south this month. In April, the Rural Commodity Index rose marginally USD terms by 0.8% while fell by 2% in AUD terms. This month, lamb is our commodity in focus.
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – Mar 2013
The NAB Commercial Property Index rose in Q1’13 (but still remained negative), driven by an uplift in sentiment in the office, retail and industrial property markets.
2013 Federal Budget news, insights and expert analysis
Understanding how the Federal Budget impacts you and your business can be complex. Our team of leading economists, tax and superannuation experts keep you up-to-date with all the latest news from the 2013 Federal Budget so we can help you get all your ducks in a row.
Federal Budget 2013 – Fact sheets
With the Federal Budget being handed down yesterday, we want to ensure you understand what it means for you and your business. Our team of economists and industry experts have analysed what the Budget means overall for Australian businesses, as well as focussing on specific industries
Personal and business tax changes from the Federal Budget
NAB’s Senior Tax Advisor and panel of leading economists break down the tax impacts from the 2013 Federal Budget. Understand what the changes are for individuals and businesses including a recap on those that were previously announced.
What a difference a year makes! Alan Oster analyses the budget
“What a difference a year makes”. NAB’s Group Chief Economist Alan Oster gives his detailed summary of this year’s Federal Budget. Who benefits from the Government’s proposed spending and who doesn’t, and what does it mean for the Australian Economy?
Federal Budget impacts to the Energy and Resources sector
This year’s budget contains a number of negatives for the resources sector. NAB’s Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, looks at where the government has targeted it’s efforts including impacts to exploration and many mining and energy programs.
New reforms to impact Big Business from the 2013 Federal Budget
NAB’s Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, looks at the key reforms impacting Big business. The Federal Budget focuses on a crackdown on profit shifting, banning of dividend washing, reducing thin capitalisation safe harbour, removal of R&D and exploration incentives.
Infrastructure investment addresses population & urban growth
With Infrastructure spending being a key component of the 2013 Federal Budget, our Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster takes a deeper look at the key initiates and what they mean.
Monthly Business Survey – April 2013
Business conditions remain very difficult and confidence stumbles after showing signs of recovery earlier this year. Despite less negativity in retail & manufacturing, activity still very poor and labour market showing new signs of weakness.
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q1, 2013
The Manufacturing Activity Index improved in Q1, up to neutral levels – driven largely by less negative levels for business confidence. The index implies no growth in quarterly manufacturing activity – which would represent a slowdown according to recent official data.
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2013
Global financial markets are digesting latest Euro-zone crisis (Cyprus) where bank depositors are being forced to take losses. Pre-crisis global financial markets had been on a strong rally, especially against the background of still sluggish economic performance in the…
Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013
Our global forecasts remain little changed at 3.3% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2014. Renewed Euro-zone instability has taken a toll on global equity markets, which had strengthened quite markedly since late 2012, especially when compared to global economic activity and commodity markets.
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013
Global growth forecasts unchanged. Activity still sluggish but set to accelerate in second half of 2013. Financial markets digesting latest Euro-zone crisis (Cyprus) and new Japanese monetary policy.
Monthly Business Survey – March 2013
Business conditions fall to weakest level in almost four years but confidence steady. Previous surge in activity in consumer sectors retail & manufacturing unwinds, with signs lower interest rates need more time to fully work through economy.
State Economic Update – March 2013
The disparity between business conditions that became increasingly pronounced following the GFC has narrowed over recent quarters; however, the convergence of conditions readings largely reflects a weakening in previously stronger performing industries and regions, suggesting…
Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013
Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook has firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best.
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013
Global economy still sluggish in late 2012 but equities strengthen on stronger risk appetite and expectations of sustained global recovery. Partial data suggest better start to 2013; we still see marginally better growth in major advanced economies this year, accelerating in 2014.
Monthly Business Survey – February 2013
Business conditions & confidence both edge down in February. High AUD hurting manufacturing and lack of non-mining demand weighing on most sectors. Large falls in orders, poor capacity use, and weak capex plans (esp. mining) don’t augur well for near-term (weak) domestic demand.
Corporate Finance Insights – February 2013
There's been considerable debate recently around whether the natural resources boom has ended. In this edition of Corporate Finance Insights we step back from the day-today volatility in coal, iron ore and energy prices and try to understand some of the key drivers of the recent boom.
Basel 3: Impacts and Opportunities for Superannuation Funds
Basel 3 represents significant regulatory change, with profound impact on the global financial system, including Australia. This publication and related articles look at the likely impacts of Basel 3 and potential opportunities for Superannuation funds.
Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013
Financial and commodity markets have generally strengthened recently, following the last minute agreement to hold off the US fiscal cliff. Signs of strengthening in China’s manufacturing sector has also provided some confidence about the outlook for global growth.
Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013
Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best. Central bank action in the Euro-zone, US and Japan has boosted market hopes
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013
Global economy sluggish in late 2012 but signs of an upturn, that gathers pace through next two years. Financial markets strengthen reflecting “risk on” as confidence in global outlook strengthens in wake of central bank action. Emerging market economies will still drive global growth.
Monthly Business Survey – December 2012
Business confidence posts a sharp jump in December, but not so activity and forward indicators, which remain poor - particularly wholesale, manufacturing, retail and construction. Better external sentiment (temporary avoidance of the US ‘fiscal cliff’), strengthening in Chinese data
Australian Corporate Bonds – January 2013
We bring you the first of five research reports examining the Australian Corporate Bond Market, prepared for National Australia Bank by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies.
Health Sector Insights – December 2012
We explore various topics including a current view on the management of foreign exchange and interest rate risks and the results of a client survey conducted by our Group Economics team on current business conditions and reforms in the Australian healthcare sector.
Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012
Although interest rates are historically low in the advanced economies and central banks have stepped up liquidity injections, their pace of economic growth remains very weak. The big emerging economies are driving global growth, and it looks as if their economies are stabilising.
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2012
The Australian economy appears to have stumbled into the December quarter. For agricultural commodities, markets have been fairly mixed over the past month. Grains prices have softened a little on expected demand rationing while sugar and cotton remain subdued.
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012
Global growth still sluggish and expected to stay that way in 2013. US growth is moderate, Japan and Euro-zone weak, emerging economies now driving global expansion. Australian economy slowed in Q3 and may soften again in Q4.
Monthly Business Survey – November 2012
The brakes have firmly tightened on activity in November; business conditions very weak in construction, retail, manufacturing and wholesale. Signs of trouble ahead with confidence slumping to lowest level since April 2009, with little hint of a pre-Christmas revival
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012
Global growth still sluggish with major divergences between different regions. Below trend growth expected to continue into 2013 as world economy averts major risks in US and Euro-zone. Australian economy stumbles into Q4, with growth clearly below trend.
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2012
China’s strong import program is one of several global factors colliding to underpin wheat prices through the end of the year and into 2013, according to the latest Rural Commodities Wrap, which this month focuses on wheat. NAB estimates the crop will come in at 20.6 million tonnes
Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey – September 2012
NAB Commercial Property Index hits new low of -19 points in Q3 2012 as domestic economy passes through a soft patch with business conditions weaker and forward indicators concerning. Retail participants least optimistic, but expectations soften most in office and CBD Hotel markets.
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012
Australian online retail sales up 23 percent yoy in September, but the level is still modest compared to traditional sales. Domestic online retailers continue to innovate – in an effort to develop or maintain a competitive advantage.
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2012
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. It aims to share business insights and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter.
Manufacturing Sector Insights – October 2012
This edition explores key topics and issues which have real potential for impact on manufacturers and the concept of optimisation in the context of business models, capital structure, funding profiles, working capital efficiency, approach to risk management and cost base.
Manufacturing Activity Index – Q3 2012
The Manufacturing Activity Index was unchanged in Q3 – despite diverging trends in the index components – remaining at negative levels. The index indicates further falls in Manufacturing growth in the quarter, which remains burdened by global economic trends and the strength of the dollar
State Economic Update – October 2012
Economic conditions in NSW are likely to improve only marginally over the coming year with conditions within the state likely to vary wildly. By all measures, the Victorian economy continues to under perform the national average, with SFD growth slowing to 2.1 per cent in 2011-12
Monthly Business Survey – September 2011
Conditions recover and businesses take comfort from better sales, a lower AUD and talk of interest rate cuts. Global uncertainty still weighing on near-term activity indicators. Business conditions improved in September, after edging down over the previous two months, with the outcome suggesting that the Australian economy may be stabilising. However, there are still signs […]
Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012
The latest business surveys suggest that conditions in the big advanced economies have stabilised after the softening in growth that took place since late 2011. Monthly trade and industrial indicators still point to a broad-based slowing across the emerging economie
Monthly Business Survey – September 2012
Business confidence recovers modestly but still down beat – especially mining. Business conditions disappoint – with struggling retail and wholesale falling significantly. Forward orders noticeably weaker and capacity utilisation trending down - indicative of weakening demand.
Corporate Finance Insights – September 2012
NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. The report is published four times a year.
Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012
A monthly snapshot of NAB’s global and domestic economic outlook. The Bigger Picture – A Global & Australian Economic Perspective Global: The global economy is experiencing a broad-based slowdown with both the advanced and emerging economies reporting a softening in growth. Conditions vary between regions with recession in Western Europe, slowdowns in China, India and […]
Corporate Finance Insights – May 2012
NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. The report is published four times a year and explores topical issues facing Australian Corporates. Welcome to the May 2012 edition of Corporate Finance Insights. In this […]
Monthly Business Survey – August 2012
Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions improve on the back of strengthening trading and profitability – especially in interest sensitive sectors. But confidence falls […]
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2012
The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global growth weighed down by weakness in big developed economies, emerging markets also slowing Australian farm sector mixed but likely to benefit from US drought, which could add around $6 billion in export incomes to the […]
Monthly Business Survey – July 2012
Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions worsen in the face of poor trading and profits, with weakness particularly evident in retail and wholesale – […]
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2012
The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month
Transport & Logistics Sector Insights – July 2012
NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to our 2012 publication of Sector Insights: Transport & Logistics. In this edition, we […]
Government Sector Insights – July 2012
NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to our inaugural issue of Sector Insights: Government. Both domestically and globally, in this […]
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2012
The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month.
Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012
Retail drives ASX 300 business conditions lower in Q2, with a weaker trend tipped for Q3. Business conditions deteriorated across the economy in the second quarter of 2012, with declines recorded among firms in both the ASX 300 survey and the broader Quarterly Business Survey (QBS). ASX 300 firms recorded a net balance of 0 […]
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012
The NAB Manufacturing Activity Index provides detailed analysis of activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector and has been constructed to replicate quarterly movements in activity within the sector. The Manufacturing Activity Index* eased further in Q2, remaining in negative territory – despite some divergent trends in individual sub-sectors. The index implies declines in quarter-on-quarter growth in […]
Retail Sector Insights – June 2012
NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to our June 2012 edition of Sector Insights: Retail. The Australian retail sector has […]
Property Sector Insights – June 2012
NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to the June 2012 edition of Property Insights. It’s hard to believe it is […]
Monthly Business Survey – May 2012
Business conditions now the weakest in three years: mining and construction down sharply. Confidence falters on global Greek exit fears, weak orders and negative reaction to the May Budget. Indicators of demand imply softer near-term activity and more jobs shedding in weak sectors. RBA to cut again in coming months. Business confidence deteriorated sharply in […]
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2012
The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Global agricultural commodity prices come under pressure as European concerns sees heightened financial market volatility Australian poultry industry on firm footing, buoyed by rising productivity and solid growth in per capita consumption Decline in domestic pig meat […]
Monthly Business Survey – April 2012
Businesses remain confident of better near-term activity but actual conditions weaken in April – with multi-speed element widening again. Forward indicators remain lacklustre, with a material decline in capacity utilisation signalling increased slack in the economy – and further weakness in the labour market ahead. More rate action to come, although how much depends on […]
Energy & Utilities Sector Insights – April 2012
NAB’s Sector Insight reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. Our reports also include some perspectives from respected industry leaders in each edition. Welcome to our inaugural issue of Sector Insights: Energy & Utilities. We are pleased to […]
Monthly Business Survey – March 2012
Confidence and conditions grind higher but with little jobs growth. Forward indicators marginally improve but remain subdued. Multi speed economy still to the fore – with non mining edging up a touch. Domestic forecasts edge lower with unemployment up. Rates view unchanged. Businesses appeared slightly more confident about near-term activity in March than in February, […]
Monthly Business Survey – February 2012
Confidence retreats while conditions edge higher. Forward indicators remain weak. Retail, manufacturing and construction still struggling while services, transport and mining strong. Growth lowered locally. Businesses appeared less confident about near-term activity in February than in January. While overall confidence remained positive, uncertainty emanating from the euro-zone and financial markets, the persistent strength in the […]
Corporate Finance Insights – Feb 2012
NAB’s Corporate Finance Insights reports utilise our expertise across a range of industry sectors to explore current issues, present forward looking views and opportunities for growth and progression. The report is published four times a year and explores topical issues facing Australian Corporates. Welcome to the second edition of Corporate Finance Insights. In our first […]
Monthly Business Survey – January 2012
Confidence and conditions a touch better but economy still marking time. Sectors remain wide apart. Inflation weakening as retailers increase discounts and one more rate cut possible. Overall business confidence was relatively firm in the month, with businesses seemingly still taking relief from the recent RBA rate cuts as well some abatement of concerns about […]
Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Strong rebound in business confidence for ASX300 firms – exceeding the broader economy; business conditions record […]
Rural Commodities Wrap – December 2011
The NAB Rural Commodities Wrap focuses on some of the key economic activity that occurred in the Agribusiness sector during the month. Agricultural commodities weakening on Euro sovereign debt crisis, rising production prospects Wool prices hit by weakening demand prospects, but still relatively high Australian wool production to rise 3.1 per cent in 2011-12 but exports to remain […]
NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011
The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Business conditions for ASX300 declined further in Q3 – driven by manufacturing – narrowing the gap […]
Monthly Business Survey – July 2011
Business conditions weaken showing an economy continuing to lose momentum and traveling below trend. Confidence remains subdued in the face of continuing uncertainty – but carbon didn’t appear to cause further retreat. Growth in the domestic economy weakening in July, with business conditions now indicative of below-trend growth. This weakening trend was broad based – […]