Economic Commentary

17 April 2026

Welcome to Cotality (CoreLogic)’s housing market update for March 2026.

First, the national picture. Cotality’s national home value index rose 0.7% in March, taking values 2.1% higher over the March quarter. Values are still rising, but the growth rate is easing, down from a 2.8% lift in the December quarter last year. The housing market performance is becoming increasingly uneven by city, and by price point.

In Sydney and Melbourne, we’re seeing the early stages of a downturn. Since November 2025, Melbourne values are down 0.9% and Sydney is down 0.4%. At the same time, auction clearance rates have been falling, and advertised supply is lifting, providing buyers with more choice, less urgency, and vendors are facing more negotiation.

Now contrast that with Perth, where momentum is running the other way. Values were up 2.5% in March and 7.3% over the quarter. In dollar terms, that quarterly lift adds about $69,000 to the median dwelling value. Clearly, this pace isn’t sustainable long term, but it’s being underpinned by the fundamental constraint of low supply, with advertised stock sitting around 40% below the five‑year average for this time of year.

We’re also seeing a split across the value tiers. In most capitals, the lower quartile, or most affordable end of the market, has been leading growth. Sydney is the clearest example: over the March quarter, upper quartile values fell 1.8%, while the lower quartile rose 1.8%.

The driver here is increased competition for lower priced stock. Serviceability constraints are deflecting demand to the lower end, alongside a lift in first home buyer activity, supported by stimulus, and elevated investor participation.