September 25, 2025

NAB’s Online Retail Sales Index recorded an almost flat result on a seasonally adjusted basis in August.

By NAB Group Economics

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, the NAB Online Retail Sales Index recorded an almost flat result (-0.1% mom) on the month prior (July revised -1.1%, was -1.0%).
• While slowing, growth remained strong in year-on-year terms (15.1% yoy), although July was revised lower (previously 16.2%).
• Growth was mixed in the month, with a large drop in department store sales and a fall in takeaway food sales almost offset by growth in all other categories. Large sales category, homewares and appliances, returned to growth in August after contracting heavily in July. Looking through the recent monthly volatility, this category is beginning to trend higher in growth terms, consistent with a pick-up in house prices and housing turnover. The department stores category continues to lead in year-on-year terms.
• August saw improvement in monthly growth across all states except TAS and QLD, with growth positive for both WA and SA. While the two largest sales states, NSW and VIC, recorded large falls the month prior, NSW returned to a relatively better position this month (flat) with grocery and liquor, and homewares and appliances key to the result.
• Regional areas recorded growth in the month, but this was outweighed by the fall in metro areas, albeit less negative than the month prior. In year-on-year terms, metro areas still lead, especially in SA, WA and VIC.
• International retailers again recorded growth. Domestic growth improved to an almost flat position.
• NAB estimates that in the 12 months to August, Australians spent $65.65 billion on online retail, a level that is around 14.8% of the total retail trade estimate from the ABS Monthly Household Spending indicator – Retail Trade estimate (July 2025, Series 5682, Australian Bureau of Statistics), with the 12-months-to growth (14.4%) continuing to accelerate.

NAB Chief Economist, Sally Auld commented

For the Online Retail Sales series, we have observed heightened volatility in growth over the past three months. Some of this volatility is typical of the series, especially around sales events, but is probably more noticeable this year given the somewhat stable growth period between January and May. Our monthly trend series in August points to improved sales growth in the near term, and this looks likely across most states, especially smaller sales states.

Of note this month was the rebound in fashion, although this category tends to be more volatile relative to others. While growth for fashion was particularly high in the smaller sales states, it was positive across all regions. Also noticeable this month was the strong growth by international retailers (especially department stores, games and toys, and personal and recreational goods). 

For further details please see the NAB Online Retail Sales Index (August 2025) (PDF, 627KB), opens in new window