Highlights

The NAB Rural Commodities Index climbed in April – increasing by 2.7% month-on-month in Australian dollar (AUD) terms. Overall, our index has pushed higher since October last year, which means it was 7.4% higher in April than a year ago.

Reflecting the sizeable decline in the exchange rate over the past year, the increase in our index was more modest in US dollar (USD) terms –up by 3.9% yoy. That said, USD prices have trended higher since the start of the year.

An increase in beef prices was the key driver of the month-on-month increase in our AUD index in April –accounting for around three-fifths of the total change. This was supported by higher prices for lamb, barley and canola, while prices for sugar and fruit were slightly softer.

Recent rainfall conditions have been highly mixed –below average in Tasmania, Victoria, eastern South Australia and parts of southern NSW in April. In contrast, rainfall was above average for much of Queensland, NT and northern WA. The BoM forecasts rainfall will be within the typical range for June to August overall, albeit with below average falls in alpine Victoria, southwest WA and coastal NSW.

Climatic conditions (as measured by the El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) index) have remained in neutral territory, and the BoM expect it to remain neutral through to September.

Uncertainty remains the key theme in the global economy. The impacts of tariffs, and broader policy uncertainty, mean that we expect a substantial slowdown in global economic growth, negatively impacting demand for more discretionary rural commodities. Australia’s economic growth is set to gradually recover over the course of 2025 –as the easing in inflation and a series of policy rate cuts to support a gradual increase in household consumption.

Read more here: Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2025