Author

Ivan Colhoun

“Ivan writes for NAB's daily and weekly economics and market reports, and regularly speaks with the media about the economy and financial market.”

Ivan Colhoun is Chief Economist, Markets for National Australia Bank. He joined NAB in November 2014 and is responsible for the Australian Economics function within the Global Markets Research team.

Ivan has had a long and varied career in Economics. He received a Bachelor of Economics with Honours from the University of Tasmania and commenced his career at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

He spent 15 years at Deutsche Bank finishing as Chief Economist for Australia and Head of Global Markets Research for Australia/NZ, before following his passion for aviation by joining Qantas as Chief Economist.

Most recently, Ivan was Chief Economist for Australia for ANZ Bank. He has also consulted to SEEK, Virgin Australia and IATA.

Recently Published Articles

AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered

AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered

14 December 2022

In today’s weekly, we suggest a framework for sifting through the various forces buffeting the 2023 outlook and pose five big questions that we think need to be answered to judge how the economy and central bank policy will evolve in 2023.

AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered
AMW: Delving deeper into the NAB Survey on costs & prices

AMW: Delving deeper into the NAB Survey on costs & prices

17 May 2022

It’s clear that with unemployment close to full employment levels and inflation way above target and forecast to rise higher, Australian interest rate settings should no longer be anywhere close to the emergency low settings implemented in the pandemic.

AMW: Delving deeper into the NAB Survey on costs & prices
AMW: How to assess the Australian budget

AMW: How to assess the Australian budget

10 May 2021

The Federal Budget will continue phase 1 of the Government’s fiscal strategy which seeks to secure Australia’s economic recovery from COVID by growing the economy to lower unemployment.

AMW: How to assess the Australian budget
AMW: Labour market recovering more quickly than expected

AMW: Labour market recovering more quickly than expected

22 September 2020

Traditionally the labour market has been a lagging indicator of activity. However, in this pandemic it is largely contemporaneous and is thus a good summary indicator of the wider economy as well as being timely given new data sets such as weekly payrolls and regular job ad updates by SEEK and Indeed.

AMW: Labour market recovering more quickly than expected
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017

3 April 2017

With house prices rising, vacancy rates declining and a previous drop in building approvals, it’s likely that residential construction activity should begin to strengthen.

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 April 2017
Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017

30 January 2017

While we are receiving many questions about the impact of President Trump’s policies on the outlook for the US and global economies and markets, the most frequent question we are being asked about Australia is “why is NAB forecasting two interest rate cuts in 2017” (in May and August)?

Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017
Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016

24 October 2016

With the RBA a keen inflation targetter, albeit within a flexible medium-term framework, each quarterly CPI reading provides an important update on current inflation trends and is a key input into the Bank’s forecasts.

Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016
Australian Markets Weekly: 5 September 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 5 September 2016

5 September 2016

This week, we thought we would focus on three themes: (i) Friday night’s US labour market data; (ii) this week’s upcoming Australian Q2 GDP data; and (iii) some thoughts on apartment settlements.

Australian Markets Weekly: 5 September 2016
Australian Markets Weekly: 15 August 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 15 August 2016

15 August 2016

Spare capacity in the labour market seems to have been an important part of the RBA’s recent decision to lower the cash rate further. The linkage is low wages growth – which reflects this spare capacity – and which, as a key determinant of prices, impacts on the RBA’s outlook for inflation.

Australian Markets Weekly: 15 August 2016
Australian Markets Weekly – 30 May 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 30 May 2016

30 May 2016

The past week has seen interest rate markets continue to receive warnings from various Fed speakers – including Fed Chair Yellen – that US interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months.

Australian Markets Weekly – 30 May 2016
Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016

16 May 2016

It was a quieter week for Australian markets after the previous week’s very large moves. The Australian dollar still ended the week lower, as markets continued to speculate that the RBA will follow up with another interest rate cut in the months ahead and as Chinese economic data disappointed.

Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016
Australian Markets Weekly: A cyclical turn in unemployment?

Australian Markets Weekly: A cyclical turn in unemployment?

16 November 2015

We review last week’s stunning Australian labour market data. While we don’t believe the large moves in either the employment or unemployment rate, we believe the signals - that employment is strengthening (driven by NSW and importantly an improving trend for QLD)

Australian Markets Weekly: A cyclical turn in unemployment?
Australian Markets Weekly: Independent interest rate increases

Australian Markets Weekly: Independent interest rate increases

19 October 2015

In this weekly, we consider the implications for monetary policy of last week’s independent mortgage rate increases by Westpac. RBA expected to watch how other intermediaries respond to the move and to assess how the move impacts the economy.

Australian Markets Weekly: Independent interest rate increases
Australian Markets Weekly:  Australia = ∑ many cycles

Australian Markets Weekly: Australia = ∑ many cycles

12 October 2015

In this weekly we examine through the lens of job advertisements, the net effect for the labour market – and by implication the broader economy – of the many conflicting cycles currently impacting the evolution of the Australian economy.

Australian Markets Weekly:  Australia = ∑ many cycles
Australian Markets Weekly: More on the employment conundrum

Australian Markets Weekly: More on the employment conundrum

17 August 2015

Noteworthy developments last week from the RBA, were: (i) the Deputy Governor attribute most of the recent increase in Australian house prices to an increase in land prices; and (ii) Assistant Governor Chris Kent add the composition of recent Australian growth (and possible mismeasurement issues for services growth) to the list of explanations as to why Australian employment and unemployment outcomes had outperformed expectations despite as expected relatively slow GDP growth.

Australian Markets Weekly: More on the employment conundrum
Australian Markets Weekly: Something for everyone

Australian Markets Weekly: Something for everyone

10 August 2015

This week we attempt to interpret the latest developments in the large and complex range of conflicting influences impacting on the Australian economy and financial markets. It’s fair to say there is something for everyone in the latest data and policy pronouncements.

Australian Markets Weekly: Something for everyone
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, China, RBA and the Labour Market

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, China, RBA and the Labour Market

6 July 2015

This week we look at: the Greek vote; recent developments in Chinese equity markets; the RBA’s July Board meeting; and upcoming important Australian labour market releases for June, with ANZ and SEEK job ads released this week and the monthly ABS labour market data on Thursday.

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, China, RBA and the Labour Market
Australian Markets Weekly: Fed now not impatient – RBA patient in March

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed now not impatient – RBA patient in March

23 March 2015

This week we look at: •The latest US FOMC statement and its implications; •The RBA Minutes, which reveal the Bank considered further reducing rates in March, but decided against moving at that meeting. How much longer might they be patient?; •The latest industry employment data to see how this fits with our view of the Australian economy; and •The main events coming up this week.

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed now not impatient – RBA patient in March
Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off

9 February 2015

The week opens with two conflicting pieces of economic news for markets, the strong US payrolls report and weak China trade data. NAB has also revised lower its $A forecasts. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for January surprised on the high side.

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off
RBA: “On balance” cuts 25bps to 2.25%

RBA: “On balance” cuts 25bps to 2.25%

4 February 2015

The RBA’s Board has made the decision to reduce rates earlier than NAB expected, but for similar reasons we expected a modest rate reduction in March. It suggests growth will be below trend for somewhat longer – and the unemployment rate will peak a little higher – than earlier expected.

RBA: “On balance” cuts 25bps to 2.25%
Australian Markets Weekly: Monetary Policy

Australian Markets Weekly: Monetary Policy

2 February 2015

Another big week coming up, with the RBA’s first Board meeting of the year tomorrow, the much-awaited retail sales reading for December on Thursday, the RBA’s February Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday and US non-farm payrolls data for January on Friday night.

Australian Markets Weekly: Monetary Policy