ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

Online sales growth on par with June, faster over the year

Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.

Our expectation for the Australian economy is that GDP will increase by just under 3.0% in 2018 and 2019.

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

China’s consumers aren’t ready to drive the economy’s growth.

Recent tariff announcements are a modest negative for growth in US and China although Chinese policy will look to offset the impact.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 1.1% in August on a month-on-month basis, following a gain of 0.7% (revised) in July.

The bigger picture – a global and Australian economic perspective.

Growth at a multi-year high but set to slow as risks build.

A strong first half and easing downside risks.

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

Nationwide dwelling prices have fallen 4% since their peak in November 2017. How much further will prices decline? As you’d expect there is no simple answer.

The last month of winter saw the housing market correction deepen, with dwelling values falling across five of Australia’s eight capital cities. CoreLogic’s national index was down three tenths of a percent over the month taking the cumulative decline since values peaked in September last year to 2.2%.

US economy still strong, but trade concerns won’t go away.

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