ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

Special survey on the second round impact of recent bushfires.

SME conditions and confidence edge lower.

Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

US economy travelling well but Coronavirus clouds the outlook.

Our forecast points to a moderate rise in the ABS retail sales measure in January (+0.2% m/m), following an underwhelming end to 2019.

Wellbeing declined in the final months of 2019, after rising throughout the first 3 quarters of last year.

Special survey on the second round impact of recent bushfires.

We have revised down our forecasts for global growth in 2020 to 3.0%. While in Australia we now expect a small negative for Q1 2020 growth.

The NAB Commercial Property Index increased 5 points to an above average +8 in Q4.

SME conditions and confidence edge lower.

Coronavirus to deliver a shock to global growth.

Commodity prices have generally retreated in early February in response to the Coronavirus outbreak in China.

We have adjusted down 2020 GDP by 0.5% due to bushfires & Coronavirus impacts, but boosted for 2021. RBA forecasts a big stretch.

Good January rainfall across key agricultural production areas drove the NAB Rural Commodities Index 4.6% higher this month, despite the impact of bushfires and coronavirus.

Housing market update shows the rebound in Australian housing values has continued into 2020.

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