ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.

Confidence and conditions continue to ease

Business conditions saw a moderate rebound in January after falling sharply in December.

Business conditions continued to ease in Q4 and while they remain above average, forward looking indicators point to potential further weakness.

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Add it up: the uncertainty around China’s economic data

We forecast that ABS retail trade for February will grow for a second consecutive month, following a weak Christmas period and a subdued January ABS print.

The bigger picture – A global and Australian economic perspective.

Growth slowdown continues; risks still to the downside

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 3.1% qoq in Q1 2019.

National dwelling values have returned to levels last seen in September 2016, and values have fallen over fourteen of the last sixteen months.

Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index recorded -0.5% month-on-month contraction in January, following on from a -1.9% contraction in December.

Household sector weakness to persist.

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