ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.

Student wellbeing on the agenda for schools.

Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.

Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Hopes of a US-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement have lifted financial markets. While in Australia we’ve lowered our near-term forecast for growth.

Most of China’s indicators relatively weak year-on-year, however, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at the start of the October has made this harder to gauge.

Near term growth prospects still weak, but potential trade deal offers some upside.

Next RBA cut delayed to February 2020, with the risk of further cuts and QE by mid-2020 without fiscal stimulus.

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 7.9% quarter on quarter in Q4 2019.

Private demand still stalled. Broadly unchanged forecasts but slightly lower growth in the near term. Policy help delayed.

Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.

Anxiety on the rise despite wellbeing hitting near record high.

Latest report shows a 1.2% rise in national dwelling values, delivering the fourth straight month of rising values. 

Trade truce – US and China reach an agreement, but trade outlook still uncertain.

After a weak mid-year period, online retail sales continued to grow in September, albeit at a more moderate pace than the significant growth rate recorded in August.

US growth has slowed, but remains solid.

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