ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Conditions at a record high in Q2.

Consumer stress rising again, but vaccination intentions more positive.

COVID-19 remains the most significant risk for our global outlook. While in Australia, the current virus outbreak in NSW and associated lockdowns/border closures highlights the uncertainty around economic forecasting at present.

China’s economy grew largely as expected in Q2, but imbalance between production and consumption persists.

Compared to the start of 2021, consumption is now down around 0.7%.

Advanced economies open up again; can vaccines ensure it’s for the last time?

Recent lockdowns look to have dented retail spending in areas hard-hit in 2020, notably hospitality and clothing and footwear.

Lockdown disruptions but expect recovery to continue.

Re-Affirming our rate view and an update on the outlook for QE.

One, two, three: Can China counter its demographic drag by raising its birth rate?

Wages growth and expectations.

Confidence falls on virus fears.