Business Research & Insights

Online retail sales grew strongly in October, following on from a rebound in September.

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

Global growth resilient in Q3 but set to slow going into 2024

Growth outlook upgraded but 4.6% rate peak ahead

Bond-fuelled lending to support near-term growth but challenges remain unaddressed

Our monthly transaction data showed a fall in spending in October across a number of categories including retail as well as a range of services sectors.

Confidence remains low despite healthy conditions

US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer

Growth holding up but subdued year ahead

The inflation figures surprised on the upside in October leading many pundits to believe there will be a rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day. At this webinar we will discuss the RBA decision on the first Tuesday in November and what this means for interest rates.

NAB expects follow up hike in February 2024

Q3 GDP growth very strong but not sustainable

Searching for some signal in the noise – digging deeper into China’s Q3 GDP data

Challenging conditions (particularly in Office and Retail markets) weighed further on commercial property market sentiment in Q3…

There was a broad-based rebound in online retail sales in September

Household financial stress eases after rising for the past 6 quarters as Australians grow more accustomed to a number of ongoing pressures, but financial concerns are still climbing among lower income earners.

SME conditions improve but smallest firms still negative

The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.

Understandably, the last thing small businesses need is another overhead. But what if it saved you money in the long term – a lot of money? NAB Executive Small Business Ana Marinkovic explains the financial upside of reduced carbon emissions.

The NAB Residential Property Index maintained its upward momentum in Q3.

Cost of living stress eases after rising for 7 consecutive quarters

Labour costs rise as price inflation remains elevated

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.

China’s third quarter growth beat expectations; 2023 forecast edges back above target

Inflation yet to be defeated – policy rates could stay high for longer

Growth to remain subdued, but avoid a major downturn

Job switching & intentions, employee satisfaction, working from home & perceptions of collaboration & productivity.

Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with growth in September following on from fairly strong nominal growth in prior months.

Revising up short-term growth; Fed cuts delayed

Cost pressures ease amid resilience in activity

Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.

Central banks may be at their peaks, but energy prices pose a risk to disinflation trend

Growth to remain subdued despite signs of resilience

Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with July and August both showing fairly strong growth in consumer spending overall.

Employment index rises as resilience continues

Are authorities unable or unwilling to address the real problem in China’s economy?

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

The impact on SMEs

How big is the issue for SMEs?

Soft landing hopes rise but headwinds remain

Soft start to Q3 signals a growing chance that China could miss its annual growth target

Flat consumption in Q2 with one more rate rise left

Our monthly transaction data showed a surprisingly positive result for July, with spending still holding up.

Conditions still above average despite warning signs.

Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24

RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely

SMEs see conditions weaken in Q2 as economy slows

NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in June.

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives

Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?

Commercial property market sentiment and confidence moderates in Q2 amid growing economic uncertainty…

The NAB Residential Property Index bounced sharply in Q2.

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

Supply issues easing but labour still hard to find

China’s weak Q2 growth presages weaker global growth

A slow second half, but persistent inflation

China’s recovery lost momentum in Q2 and the outlook for the second half remains cloudy

Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the challenging times ahead.

Any significant change to global supply chains will take time

Our monthly transaction data showed a broadly flat result for June, with a lift in hospitality spending but a fall in retail.

Conditions still above average despite warning signs

Concern over cost of living climbs again as ‘considered consumers’ focus on the things they value most.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew rapidly this month, following on from very subdued growth over the past two months.

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

Global growth set to slow as monetary policy bites

4.6% rate peak as recessionary forces gather

Fed pauses in June, but another hike is likely

Weakness in domestic demand led to underperformance in May

Is China finding new markets for its exports?

Our monthly transaction data showed a small rise in spending in May (in seasonally adjusted terms), driven by discretionary spending.

Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks

Worrying signs of a slowing in activity

The national measure of dwelling values recorded a third consecutive rise last month, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2%. After finding a floor in February, dwelling values nationally have increased 2.3% in the three months to May, following a 9.2% drop.

The RBA Board is ‘Finely Balanced’ at the moment and we consider future meetings ‘live’. What does the Interest Rates pathway in the back half of 2023 & how can NAB Markets support commercial borrowers in managing this risk?

A soft start to 2023

Hear NAB’s senior expert panellists discuss a range of topics to provide key insights to help you and your business prepare for the current property market climate.

A slow start for growth in 2023

Activity – and inflation – resilience continues

NAB Online Retail Sales Index was flat in month-on-month in April, after a mild contraction in March.

Reports of a property rebound appear premature

How big is the issue for SMEs?

The impact on SMEs

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

Global growth set to slow from robust Q1 results

Base effects inflate growth in April; still waiting on demand to recover

Rates to pass 4% with economy to slow in response

Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months

Our economists stayed up all night so they could break down the Federal Budget for Australian businesses. Watch their take.

Business owners can look forward to energy bill relief, cash flow support and an extension of the instant asset write-off as part of this year's Federal Budget measures.

Federal Budget 2023 delivered a $4.2bn surplus, and focused heavily on relief – targeting energy bills and the cost of healthcare in a big way.

The government delivered a $14.6bn Cost of Living Package focused on energy bill relief, income support and some new super measures.

Our monthly transaction data showed another small fall in spending in April (in seasonally adjusted terms), largely driven by discretionary services categories.

Conditions slowly normalising but still high for now.

The NAB Commercial Property Index improved a little further in Q1 but economic uncertainty seems to be weighing on confidence.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth contracted in March, following the strong February result.

Q1 GDP slowdown driven by inventories

How prevalent are attacks & scams & how are businesses & consumers responding?

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?

Little improvement in cost pressures for SMEs in Q1

Constraints still tight but prices past their peak

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

Bounce in global growth in Q1 won’t last

Services sector supports growth rebound in Q1, as base effects boost consumption

Economy to slow despite jobs, population surge

Consumers continue to balance cost of living against job security

The NAB Residential Property Index recovered slightly, but is still well below the survey average and down sharply from the same time last year.

Our monthly transaction data suggests spending turned a corner in March with total spending declining, after holding up through more than a year of high inflation and rising interest rates.

Conditions hold up, price pressures ease

Tentative recovery: Chinese outbound tourism continues to face constraints

The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain

Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms

Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak

NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth accelerated in February, after returning to growth in January.

Just how resilient is the Australian economy in 2023? From consumer confidence to business spending, hear directly from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster and Metro & Specialised Banking Exec Julie Rynski. Watch now.

Our global forecasts are little changed this month. Also, our outlook for the Australian economy is broadly unchanged.

Bounce in Q1 2023; but bank stress highlights weaker outlook

Australia passing through a possible turning point

Fed caught between strong data & bank panic

Modest reopening rebound in early 2023 with consumers yet to re-emerge

Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending was broadly flat in February.

Confidence volatile but conditions still strong

Step down: China’s cut its growth target to a multi-decade low

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?

The NAB Commercial Property Index improved in Q4, but is still negative overall and trending well below the survey average.

Growth slows as consumption softens

In month-on-month terms, growth returned to the NAB Online Retail Sales Index, following on from a weak December result.

A solid outcome to round out 2022

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

Inflation is slowing but is still yet to be tamed

Rising rates to see slower growth ahead

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending picked back up in January after a small fall in December, with strength across most spending categories.

Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%

New-year confidence boost as resilience continues

January data surprise = higher fed funds rate

COVID’s rapid spread may allow a faster economic rebound in 2023

Conditions eased for SMEs in late 2022.

Inflation continues to dominate the markets narrative, what does the pathway for Interest Rates in 2023 hold & how can NAB Markets support commercial borrowers in managing this risk?

Tapas Strickland, Head of Markets Economics NAB, James Sheehan, Head of Business Markets NSW/ACT, and Tracy Ferguson State Director Business Markets NSW discuss the February 2023 RBA meeting and outlook, inflation, the labour market, and potential risks ahead.    

Consumer stress rises as cost-of-living pressures continue to bite.

How big is the issue for SMEs & what are they doing to overcome these challenges?

The impact on SMEs & how business is responding.

The NAB Residential Property Index fell for the third straight quarter as the downturn in national housing prices deepened

Confidence down with constraints remaining tight

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December after two months of growth in October and November.

Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending softened in December after a solid rise in November.

Economy beginning to slow; inflation peak passed

Q4 GDP looks solid but weakness emerging

Transition away from zero-COVID could boost growth in 2023, however needs to rebalance towards consumption

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.

Australian agricultural commodity prices retreated on average last month, with the NAB Rural Commodities Index down 2.6% m/m in November.

Latest COVID-19 wave impacting activity in Q4; COVID policy pivot could provide boost in 2023 (after transition period).

With inflation still high, policy rate hikes to slow growth in ‘23

Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.

Slow growth ahead after final rebound bump in Q3

NAB senior leaders discuss the 2023 business outlook and where the opportunities will lie.

Confidence now negative, despite strong conditions.

Domestic demand solid early in Q4

Post-COVID normalisation continues.

CoreLogic's national Home Value Index moved through a seventh month of decline last month with values dropping -1.0%, bringing values approximately -$53,400 below April's peak.

US chips controls could constrain China’s tech development goals

Slowing growth as consumption, trade normalise

Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index is back in positive territory.

Financial hardship in Australia rose for the second straight quarter in Q3.

China refines, not abandons, zero-COVID and remains without an exit strategy

The impacts on business & supporting local manufacturing to address them

We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.

With inflation continuing to dominate markets, what does this mean for the pathway for Interest Rates and how can commercial borrowers manage this risk? Watch this webinar tailored to Regional & Agri clients now.

NAB’s Commercial Property Index shifted back into negative territory in Q3.

Further monetary tightening to significantly slow growth in 2023.

With inflation continuing to dominate markets, what does this mean for the pathway for Interest Rates and how can commercial borrowers manage this risk? Watch this webinar tailored to metro clients now.

Higher rates to slow growth to below 1% in 2023.

Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.

Conditions still strong but confidence weaker

With inflation at 40-year highs central banks are doing whatever it takes to bring it down.

Q3 GDP – economy growing again (for now).

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Could Xi Jinping extend his leadership beyond his third term?

Market sentiment: is it a good time to buy, sell, renovate & other property intentions

NAB Online Retail Sales Index returns to growth in September

Easing conditions for small firms, despite strong demand

Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%

Growth rebounded in Q3, but base effects flattered the results

Conditions holding up as constraints tighten

Hear NAB’s senior economists discuss the trends, data and patterns shaping Australia’s property sector.

Consumer stress has fallen despite rising concerns over the cost of living as job pressures ease further

COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere

Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.

Central banks inflation priority leads to weak growth outlook

Our new monthly consumer spending analysis shows spending has remained strong over recent months, supported by rebounding hospitality spending and discretionary spending on travel and other activities.

Near term resilience but a slowing ahead

National housing market sentiment fell to below survey average levels in Q3 2022 as the downturn in the national housing market gathered speed and spread wider. Solid growth in rental markets however continued to provide some support.

Conditions roar as costs show signs of easing

Recession risk – Q3 breather likely temporary

Vicious cycle: falling land sales hitting local government revenues

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index has contracted for a seventh straight month.

Buyers fight back: Mortgage strike points to property sector’s weak underpinnings

Base effects flatter August’s growth rates, as a fresh COVID-19 wave threatens outlook

50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22

We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.

NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data to 10 September shows unexpected strength over the last two weeks.

Economic outlook weakens as central banks continue to tighten.

Growth to slow as rates and inflation bite.

Our data mapping points to a slight drop in retail sales in August.

No signs of slow down yet as strong conditions roll on.

Australian agricultural commodity prices have continued to unwind, posting a second month of lower prices as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index. This comes against a backdrop of continued excellent seasonal conditions, but elevated input costs and rapidly rising interest rates to control global inflation.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Central Banks around the world continue to lift interest rates to combat 40-year high inflation numbers, although are there signs inflation is peaking? What does that mean for interest rates and what are the implications for commercial borrowers? Watch now.

The housing downturn accelerated through August, as falling values became more widespread, taking CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index into a fourth consecutive month of decline. The national index was down -1.6% over the month, which was the largest month-on-month decline since 1983.

A solid result ahead of a slower H2 2022

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

A solid outcome ahead of a slower H2 2022.

NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the weakening trend of the past few months continues, albeit from a very high base.

Labour market still very tight despite GDP fall

NAB's Online Retail Sales Index continued to contract in July.

This report builds on our existing fortnightly Data Insights series and includes more detail on NAB business customer inflow data across various agricultural industries and states.

The “Great Resignation”, Working from Home & Returning to the Office

NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the moderation in spending growth continues post-EOFY peak, albeit from elevated levels.

Reopening rebound limited by weakness in domestic demand and credit appetite

Who is struggling, what are the key drivers and what types of debt are being used?

We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.

Weaker growth prospects, persistent inflation & geopolitical risk

Our data mapping points to moderate growth in retail sales in July.

Rebound set to fade as consumption slows in H2 2022

Confidence & conditions rally as economy strains capacity limits

While consumption has outperformed in the pandemic era – notwithstanding significant differences between sectors – gravity now appears to be catching up.