ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

Surprise jump in conditions last month was unwound this month – with business conditions, confidence and forward orders now all below average.

Conditions ease further, confidence turns negative

Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.

Conditions continue to ease and confidence turns negative

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Contrary to our forecast for the ABS print, our cashless retail sales index improved in April, gaining 1.2% compared to a 0.5% fall in March on a month on month basis.

Looking for work: the health of China’s labour market is still hard to ascertain.

RBA to cut in June with a risk it eventually cuts below 1%.

The Bigger Picture – A Global and Australian Economic Perspective – May 2019.

Trade worries overshadow tentative signs of activity stabilising.

While our sense of life worth, life satisfaction and happiness have all improved, we’re feeling more anxious.

Weaker economic trends even before trade tensions heat up again.

With a weaker inflation outlook, rate cuts ahead.

Reflecting the sustained strength in iron ore prices, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 0.4% qoq.

Surprise jump in conditions last month was unwound this month – with business conditions, confidence and forward orders now all below average.

Australian dwelling values fell half a percent last month as the pace of home value declines continued to ease.

Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 1.1% in April, largely reflecting higher cattle, lamb, dairy and cotton prices, offsetting further declines in grain.

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