ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

Conditions ease further, while confidence increases.

Confidence kick short-lived, conditions remain below average.

Confidence saw a post-election spike in May but conditions decline further with the private sector continuing to lose momentum.

Surprise jump in conditions last month was unwound this month – with business conditions, confidence and forward orders now all below average.

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Conditions ease further, while confidence increases.

Growth eased across all states and territories last year and early 2019, but the last few months have seen some improvement.

Current market sentiment among property professionals still negative but lifted in Q2 post the Federal election. Future expectations also improved sharply, reflecting a stronger outlook for prices and rents.

The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 0.5% in June.

Growth slowed in Q2 but policy support should see it stabilise.

Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.

Our sense of life worth improved and we ‘felt’ less worried about our finances in Q2.

Global growth remains under pressure even with US-China trade dispute pause.

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index has been on the up in recent quarters, in large part due to iron ore prices.

Forecasts unchanged – including key drivers of growth. Rate cuts to help but mainly in 2020. Fiscal stimulus impact small.

Confidence kick short-lived, conditions remain below average.

Our NAB Online retail sales index data indicates a return to sales growth in May 2019, after considerable weakness in April.

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