Economic commentary

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

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Insights, Trends & Case Studies

NAB Business View: Good news ahead

NAB Business View: Good news ahead

16 April 2024

NAB’s Group Chief Economist Alan Oster examines where Australia’s economy is heading, and why it’s good news for business. Watch now.

NAB Business View: Good news ahead

Video

NAB Consumer Insights – Scams

NAB Consumer Insights – Scams

22 March 2024

How do Australians feel about bank interventions to protect customers & what are they doing to protect themselves?

NAB Consumer Insights – Scams

Insight

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q4 2023

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q4 2023

22 January 2024

The NAB Consumer Stress Index rose for the fifth straight quarter, the highest since Q1 2020 and above the survey average for the first time in almost 4 years.

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q4 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

21 December 2023

There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

Insight

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

29 November 2023

The holiday season shopping flurry can offer some small businesses the opportunity to prosper… and others a time to take stock for the new year. Both call for careful preparation – particularly in the current environment. NAB Executive Small Business Ana Marinkovic shares her top tips.

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

Article

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

24 November 2023

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts

13 November 2023

US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer

Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2023

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2023

27 October 2023

Household financial stress eases after rising for the past 6 quarters as Australians grow more accustomed to a number of ongoing pressures, but financial concerns are still climbing among lower income earners.

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2023

Insight

FX Market Update – 25th October 2023

FX Market Update – 25th October 2023

25 October 2023

The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.

FX Market Update – 25th October 2023

Webinar

Ana Marinkovic: Why it pays to go green

Ana Marinkovic: Why it pays to go green

24 October 2023

Understandably, the last thing small businesses need is another overhead. But what if it saved you money in the long term – a lot of money? NAB Executive Small Business Ana Marinkovic explains the financial upside of reduced carbon emissions.

Ana Marinkovic: Why it pays to go green

Article

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

19 October 2023

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

Insight

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

22 September 2023

Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

Article

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

17 August 2023

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

20 July 2023

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

22 June 2023

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

Insight

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

13 June 2023

The national measure of dwelling values recorded a third consecutive rise last month, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2%. After finding a floor in February, dwelling values nationally have increased 2.3% in the three months to May, following a 9.2% drop.

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

18 May 2023

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

20 April 2023

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

23 February 2023

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

Insight

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

8 February 2023

Tapas Strickland, Head of Markets Economics NAB, James Sheehan, Head of Business Markets NSW/ACT, and Tracy Ferguson State Director Business Markets NSW discuss the February 2023 RBA meeting and outlook, inflation, the labour market, and potential risks ahead.    

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

16 December 2022

Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

Insight

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

14 December 2022

Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

Insight