Below trend growth to continue
Insight
Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.
Below trend growth to continue
Insight
The holiday season shopping flurry can offer some small businesses the opportunity to prosper… and others a time to take stock for the new year. Both call for careful preparation – particularly in the current environment. NAB Executive Small Business Ana Marinkovic shares her top tips.
Article
Financial hardship rises for the 6th consecutive quarter
Insight
Online retail sales grew strongly in October, following on from a rebound in September.
Insight
Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.
Insight
Global growth resilient in Q3 but set to slow going into 2024
Insight
Growth outlook upgraded but 4.6% rate peak ahead
Insight
Bond-fuelled lending to support near-term growth but challenges remain unaddressed
Insight
Our monthly transaction data showed a fall in spending in October across a number of categories including retail as well as a range of services sectors.
Insight
Confidence remains low despite healthy conditions
US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer
Growth holding up but subdued year ahead
Insight
The inflation figures surprised on the upside in October leading many pundits to believe there will be a rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day. At this webinar we will discuss the RBA decision on the first Tuesday in November and what this means for interest rates.
Webinar
NAB expects follow up hike in February 2024
Insight
Q3 GDP growth very strong but not sustainable
Insight
Searching for some signal in the noise – digging deeper into China’s Q3 GDP data
Insight
Challenging conditions (particularly in Office and Retail markets) weighed further on commercial property market sentiment in Q3…
Insight
There was a broad-based rebound in online retail sales in September
Insight
Household financial stress eases after rising for the past 6 quarters as Australians grow more accustomed to a number of ongoing pressures, but financial concerns are still climbing among lower income earners.
Insight
SME conditions improve but smallest firms still negative
Insight
The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.
Webinar
Understandably, the last thing small businesses need is another overhead. But what if it saved you money in the long term – a lot of money? NAB Executive Small Business Ana Marinkovic explains the financial upside of reduced carbon emissions.
Article
The NAB Residential Property Index maintained its upward momentum in Q3.
Insight
Cost of living stress eases after rising for 7 consecutive quarters
Insight
Labour costs rise as price inflation remains elevated
Insight
Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.
Insight
China’s third quarter growth beat expectations; 2023 forecast edges back above target
Insight
Inflation yet to be defeated – policy rates could stay high for longer
Insight
Growth to remain subdued, but avoid a major downturn
Insight
Job switching & intentions, employee satisfaction, working from home & perceptions of collaboration & productivity.
Insight
Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with growth in September following on from fairly strong nominal growth in prior months.
Insight
Revising up short-term growth; Fed cuts delayed
Insight
Cost pressures ease amid resilience in activity
Insight
Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.
Article
Central banks may be at their peaks, but energy prices pose a risk to disinflation trend
Growth to remain subdued despite signs of resilience
Insight
Our monthly transaction data continues to suggest spending has been resilient, with July and August both showing fairly strong growth in consumer spending overall.
Article
Employment index rises as resilience continues
Insight
Are authorities unable or unwilling to address the real problem in China’s economy?
Report
Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.
Insight
The impact on SMEs
Insight
How big is the issue for SMEs?
Insight
Soft landing hopes rise but headwinds remain
Insight
Soft start to Q3 signals a growing chance that China could miss its annual growth target
Insight
Flat consumption in Q2 with one more rate rise left
Insight
Our monthly transaction data showed a surprisingly positive result for July, with spending still holding up.
Insight
Conditions still above average despite warning signs.
Insight
Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24
Insight
RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely
Insight
SMEs see conditions weaken in Q2 as economy slows
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in June.
Insight
Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives
Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?
Insight
Commercial property market sentiment and confidence moderates in Q2 amid growing economic uncertainty…
Insight
The NAB Residential Property Index bounced sharply in Q2.
Insight
Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.
Insight
Supply issues easing but labour still hard to find
Insight
China’s weak Q2 growth presages weaker global growth
Insight
A slow second half, but persistent inflation
Insight
China’s recovery lost momentum in Q2 and the outlook for the second half remains cloudy
Insight
Alan Oster, NAB's Group Chief Economist, shares his insights on the challenging times ahead.
Webinar
Any significant change to global supply chains will take time
Insight
Our monthly transaction data showed a broadly flat result for June, with a lift in hospitality spending but a fall in retail.
Insight
Conditions still above average despite warning signs
Insight
Concern over cost of living climbs again as ‘considered consumers’ focus on the things they value most.
Insight
Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew rapidly this month, following on from very subdued growth over the past two months.
Insight
After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.
Insight
Global growth set to slow as monetary policy bites
Insight
4.6% rate peak as recessionary forces gather
Insight
Fed pauses in June, but another hike is likely
Insight
Weakness in domestic demand led to underperformance in May
Insight
Is China finding new markets for its exports?
Insight
Our monthly transaction data showed a small rise in spending in May (in seasonally adjusted terms), driven by discretionary spending.
Insight
Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks
Insight
Worrying signs of a slowing in activity
Insight
The national measure of dwelling values recorded a third consecutive rise last month, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2%. After finding a floor in February, dwelling values nationally have increased 2.3% in the three months to May, following a 9.2% drop.
Report
The RBA Board is ‘Finely Balanced’ at the moment and we consider future meetings ‘live’. What does the Interest Rates pathway in the back half of 2023 & how can NAB Markets support commercial borrowers in managing this risk?
Webinar
A soft start to 2023
Insight
Hear NAB’s senior expert panellists discuss a range of topics to provide key insights to help you and your business prepare for the current property market climate.
Webinar
A slow start for growth in 2023
Insight
Activity – and inflation – resilience continues
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index was flat in month-on-month in April, after a mild contraction in March.
Insight
Reports of a property rebound appear premature
Insight
How big is the issue for SMEs?
Insight
The impact on SMEs
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.
Insight
Global growth set to slow from robust Q1 results
Insight
Base effects inflate growth in April; still waiting on demand to recover
Insight
Rates to pass 4% with economy to slow in response
Insight
Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months
Insight
Our economists stayed up all night so they could break down the Federal Budget for Australian businesses. Watch their take.
Webinar
Business owners can look forward to energy bill relief, cash flow support and an extension of the instant asset write-off as part of this year's Federal Budget measures.
Insight
Federal Budget 2023 delivered a $4.2bn surplus, and focused heavily on relief – targeting energy bills and the cost of healthcare in a big way.
Insight
The government delivered a $14.6bn Cost of Living Package focused on energy bill relief, income support and some new super measures.
Report
Our monthly transaction data showed another small fall in spending in April (in seasonally adjusted terms), largely driven by discretionary services categories.
Insight
Conditions slowly normalising but still high for now.
Insight
The NAB Commercial Property Index improved a little further in Q1 but economic uncertainty seems to be weighing on confidence.
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth contracted in March, following the strong February result.
Insight
Q1 GDP slowdown driven by inventories
Insight
How prevalent are attacks & scams & how are businesses & consumers responding?
Insight
Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.
Insight
Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?
Insight
Little improvement in cost pressures for SMEs in Q1
Insight
Constraints still tight but prices past their peak
Insight
We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.
Insight
Bounce in global growth in Q1 won’t last
Insight
Services sector supports growth rebound in Q1, as base effects boost consumption
Insight
Economy to slow despite jobs, population surge
Insight
Consumers continue to balance cost of living against job security
Insight
The NAB Residential Property Index recovered slightly, but is still well below the survey average and down sharply from the same time last year.
Insight
Our monthly transaction data suggests spending turned a corner in March with total spending declining, after holding up through more than a year of high inflation and rising interest rates.
Insight
Conditions hold up, price pressures ease
Insight
Tentative recovery: Chinese outbound tourism continues to face constraints
Insight
The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain
Insight
Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms
Insight
Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth accelerated in February, after returning to growth in January.
Insight
Just how resilient is the Australian economy in 2023? From consumer confidence to business spending, hear directly from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster and Metro & Specialised Banking Exec Julie Rynski. Watch now.
Insight
Our global forecasts are little changed this month. Also, our outlook for the Australian economy is broadly unchanged.
Insight
Bounce in Q1 2023; but bank stress highlights weaker outlook
Insight
Australia passing through a possible turning point
Insight
Fed caught between strong data & bank panic
Insight
Modest reopening rebound in early 2023 with consumers yet to re-emerge
Insight
Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending was broadly flat in February.
Insight
Confidence volatile but conditions still strong
Insight
Step down: China’s cut its growth target to a multi-decade low
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Who is struggling and what are the key drivers?
Insight
The NAB Commercial Property Index improved in Q4, but is still negative overall and trending well below the survey average.
Insight
Growth slows as consumption softens
Insight
In month-on-month terms, growth returned to the NAB Online Retail Sales Index, following on from a weak December result.
Insight
A solid outcome to round out 2022
Insight
A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.
Insight
Inflation is slowing but is still yet to be tamed
Insight
Rising rates to see slower growth ahead
Insight
Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.
Insight
Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending picked back up in January after a small fall in December, with strength across most spending categories.
Insight
Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%
Insight
New-year confidence boost as resilience continues
Insight
January data surprise = higher fed funds rate
Insight
COVID’s rapid spread may allow a faster economic rebound in 2023
Insight
Conditions eased for SMEs in late 2022.
Insight
Inflation continues to dominate the markets narrative, what does the pathway for Interest Rates in 2023 hold & how can NAB Markets support commercial borrowers in managing this risk?
Webinar
Tapas Strickland, Head of Markets Economics NAB, James Sheehan, Head of Business Markets NSW/ACT, and Tracy Ferguson State Director Business Markets NSW discuss the February 2023 RBA meeting and outlook, inflation, the labour market, and potential risks ahead.
Webinar
Consumer stress rises as cost-of-living pressures continue to bite.
Insight
How big is the issue for SMEs & what are they doing to overcome these challenges?
Insight
The impact on SMEs & how business is responding.
Insight
The NAB Residential Property Index fell for the third straight quarter as the downturn in national housing prices deepened
Insight
Confidence down with constraints remaining tight
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December after two months of growth in October and November.
Insight
Our monthly transaction data indicates that spending softened in December after a solid rise in November.
Insight
Economy beginning to slow; inflation peak passed
Insight
Q4 GDP looks solid but weakness emerging
Insight
Transition away from zero-COVID could boost growth in 2023, however needs to rebalance towards consumption
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Podcast
Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.
Insight
Australian agricultural commodity prices retreated on average last month, with the NAB Rural Commodities Index down 2.6% m/m in November.
Report
Latest COVID-19 wave impacting activity in Q4; COVID policy pivot could provide boost in 2023 (after transition period).
Insight
With inflation still high, policy rate hikes to slow growth in ‘23
Insight
Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.
Insight
Slow growth ahead after final rebound bump in Q3
Insight
NAB senior leaders discuss the 2023 business outlook and where the opportunities will lie.
Insight
Confidence now negative, despite strong conditions.
Insight
Domestic demand solid early in Q4
Insight
Post-COVID normalisation continues.
Insight
CoreLogic's national Home Value Index moved through a seventh month of decline last month with values dropping -1.0%, bringing values approximately -$53,400 below April's peak.
Report
US chips controls could constrain China’s tech development goals
Insight
Slowing growth as consumption, trade normalise
Insight
Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index is back in positive territory.
Insight
Financial hardship in Australia rose for the second straight quarter in Q3.
Insight
China refines, not abandons, zero-COVID and remains without an exit strategy
Insight
The impacts on business & supporting local manufacturing to address them
Insight
We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.
Insight
With inflation continuing to dominate markets, what does this mean for the pathway for Interest Rates and how can commercial borrowers manage this risk? Watch this webinar tailored to Regional & Agri clients now.
Webinar
NAB’s Commercial Property Index shifted back into negative territory in Q3.
Insight
Further monetary tightening to significantly slow growth in 2023.
Insight
With inflation continuing to dominate markets, what does this mean for the pathway for Interest Rates and how can commercial borrowers manage this risk? Watch this webinar tailored to metro clients now.
Webinar
Higher rates to slow growth to below 1% in 2023.
Insight
Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.
Insight
Conditions still strong but confidence weaker
Insight
With inflation at 40-year highs central banks are doing whatever it takes to bring it down.
Article
Q3 GDP – economy growing again (for now).
Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.
Insight
Could Xi Jinping extend his leadership beyond his third term?
Insight
Market sentiment: is it a good time to buy, sell, renovate & other property intentions
Insight
NAB Online Retail Sales Index returns to growth in September
Insight
Easing conditions for small firms, despite strong demand
Insight
Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%
Insight
Growth rebounded in Q3, but base effects flattered the results
Insight
Conditions holding up as constraints tighten
Insight
Hear NAB’s senior economists discuss the trends, data and patterns shaping Australia’s property sector.
Webinar
Consumer stress has fallen despite rising concerns over the cost of living as job pressures ease further
Insight
COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere
Insight
Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.
Insight
Central banks inflation priority leads to weak growth outlook
Insight
Our new monthly consumer spending analysis shows spending has remained strong over recent months, supported by rebounding hospitality spending and discretionary spending on travel and other activities.
Insight
Near term resilience but a slowing ahead
Insight
National housing market sentiment fell to below survey average levels in Q3 2022 as the downturn in the national housing market gathered speed and spread wider. Solid growth in rental markets however continued to provide some support.
Insight
Conditions roar as costs show signs of easing
Insight
Recession risk – Q3 breather likely temporary
Insight
Vicious cycle: falling land sales hitting local government revenues
Insight
In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index has contracted for a seventh straight month.
Insight
Buyers fight back: Mortgage strike points to property sector’s weak underpinnings
Insight
Base effects flatter August’s growth rates, as a fresh COVID-19 wave threatens outlook
Insight
50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22
Insight
We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.
Insight
NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data to 10 September shows unexpected strength over the last two weeks.
Insight
Economic outlook weakens as central banks continue to tighten.
Insight
Growth to slow as rates and inflation bite.
Insight
Our data mapping points to a slight drop in retail sales in August.
Insight
No signs of slow down yet as strong conditions roll on.
Insight
Australian agricultural commodity prices have continued to unwind, posting a second month of lower prices as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index. This comes against a backdrop of continued excellent seasonal conditions, but elevated input costs and rapidly rising interest rates to control global inflation.
Report
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Insight
Central Banks around the world continue to lift interest rates to combat 40-year high inflation numbers, although are there signs inflation is peaking? What does that mean for interest rates and what are the implications for commercial borrowers? Watch now.
Webinar
The housing downturn accelerated through August, as falling values became more widespread, taking CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index into a fourth consecutive month of decline. The national index was down -1.6% over the month, which was the largest month-on-month decline since 1983.
Report
A solid result ahead of a slower H2 2022
Insight
NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.
Insight
A solid outcome ahead of a slower H2 2022.
Insight
NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the weakening trend of the past few months continues, albeit from a very high base.
Insight
Labour market still very tight despite GDP fall
Insight
NAB's Online Retail Sales Index continued to contract in July.
Insight
This report builds on our existing fortnightly Data Insights series and includes more detail on NAB business customer inflow data across various agricultural industries and states.
Insight
The “Great Resignation”, Working from Home & Returning to the Office
Insight
NAB's latest weekly consumer tracking data shows the moderation in spending growth continues post-EOFY peak, albeit from elevated levels.
Insight
Reopening rebound limited by weakness in domestic demand and credit appetite
Insight
Who is struggling, what are the key drivers and what types of debt are being used?
Insight
We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.
Insight
Weaker growth prospects, persistent inflation & geopolitical risk
Insight
Our data mapping points to moderate growth in retail sales in July.
Insight
Rebound set to fade as consumption slows in H2 2022
Insight
Confidence & conditions rally as economy strains capacity limits
Insight
While consumption has outperformed in the pandemic era – notwithstanding significant differences between sectors – gravity now appears to be catching up.
Insight