ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Add it up: the uncertainty around China’s economic data

We forecast that ABS retail trade for February will grow for a second consecutive month, following a weak Christmas period and a subdued January ABS print.

The bigger picture – A global and Australian economic perspective.

Growth slowdown continues; risks still to the downside

Slowing growth with rate cuts ahead.

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 3.1% qoq in Q1 2019.

National dwelling values have returned to levels last seen in September 2016, and values have fallen over fourteen of the last sixteen months.

Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.

Two cuts in 2019

Household income and construction drag.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index recorded -0.5% month-on-month contraction in January, following on from a -1.9% contraction in December.

Household sector weakness to persist.