ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

Confidence and conditions continue to ease

Business conditions saw a moderate rebound in January after falling sharply in December.

Business conditions continued to ease in Q4 and while they remain above average, forward looking indicators point to potential further weakness.

Conditions end the year on a concerning low.

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

The bigger picture – A global and Australian economic perspective.

Confidence and conditions continue to ease

Growth still reasonable but to move below trend – with rates now unlikely to rise. Indeed a significant & growing risk of a cut.

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 2.7% this quarter – driven almost entirely by the upturn in iron ore prices.

Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was up 0.5% in December but down 1.1% in January.

National dwelling values were down 1.0% over the month, which was the thirteenth monthly fall over the past fifteen months.

Business conditions saw a moderate rebound in January after falling sharply in December.

No increase for the foreseeable future – increased risk of cut.

Overall sentiment among property professionals increased marginally in the final quarter of 2018.

Business conditions continued to ease in Q4 and while they remain above average, forward looking indicators point to potential further weakness.

Consumer anxiety reaches its highest level in over 3 years as slow income growth, high debt levels and weaker growth in household wealth weighed on households and their spending.

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