ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

US economy travelling well but Coronavirus clouds the outlook.

Our forecast points to a moderate rise in the ABS retail sales measure in January (+0.2% m/m), following an underwhelming end to 2019.

Wellbeing declined in the final months of 2019, after rising throughout the first 3 quarters of last year.

Special survey on the second round impact of recent bushfires.

We have revised down our forecasts for global growth in 2020 to 3.0%. While in Australia we now expect a small negative for Q1 2020 growth.

The NAB Commercial Property Index increased 5 points to an above average +8 in Q4.

SME conditions and confidence edge lower.

Coronavirus to deliver a shock to global growth.

Commodity prices have generally retreated in early February in response to the Coronavirus outbreak in China.

We have adjusted down 2020 GDP by 0.5% due to bushfires & Coronavirus impacts, but boosted for 2021. RBA forecasts a big stretch.

Good January rainfall across key agricultural production areas drove the NAB Rural Commodities Index 4.6% higher this month, despite the impact of bushfires and coronavirus.

Housing market update shows the rebound in Australian housing values has continued into 2020.