ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Trade impacts are yet to emerge, but mixed signals persist in China.

Global growth is above average but slowing.

On a rolling quarterly basis, dwelling values are now trending lower across both the combined capital city regions, where they were 1.6% lower, as well as across the combined regional areas of Australia where values were almost 1% lower.

A healthy growth outlook but some concerns about the consumer.

Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks through the findings in the latest NAB Business Survey.

Confidence and conditions ease.

The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 1.8% in October, following a 6.5% jump in September.

In seasonally adjusted terms, at 0.3%, online retail sales slowed in September. The 12 months to growth rate is also slower.

US economy continued to grow strongly in Q3.

Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) business conditions edged lower in Q3 2018 to +11, while SME business confidence fell to +2pts. While conditions have eased over the past two quarters, they remain well above average, though confidence has declined to below average levels.

Anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns and how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.

Overall sentiment in commercial property markets (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) fell 9 points to a 2-year low +8 in Q3, but is still well above long-term average levels (+3).