ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

Business conditions tracked sideways in the month, and appear to have stabilised at low levels, after declining significantly between mid-2018 and 2019.

Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.

Student wellbeing on the agenda for schools.

Confidence declines, while conditions remain below average.

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Our forecast points to a negative (-0.1% m/m) print for December, in line with our view that the strong November ABS print largely represented Christmas spending brought forward by expanded Black Friday sales.

Dairy dynamics: prices, drought and costs impacting dairy landscape.

NAB’s annual pulse check of life in Australia confirms it is, with Australians in strong agreement that our country remains a great place to live.

China’s ends 2019 in line with expectation.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that volatility continues in sales, with a jump in November sales after contracting in October.

Our forecast points to a solid ABS retail headline figure for November – the strongest result since February this year if it transpires.

China’s industrial sector appears to have stabilised ahead of new trade deal.

Unchanged forecasts for Australia with expected growth of 1.75% while across the globe we expect US growth to ease somewhat further and Japan’s economy is set to contract in Q4.

Amid conflicting trade signals, signs growth is stabilising

Economic conditions in 2020 are expected to remain unfavourable for commodity markets.

Private demand still “running on empty”. Broadly unchanged forecasts but concerns to the downside. Fiscal policy help unlikely.

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