ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Towards the future of the Australian, Asian and global economies: latest updates on domestic, international and industrial trends from NAB Group Economics.

BUSINESS surveys

Total NAB customer spending grew 7.0% y/y in Q3 2018 – up from 5.6% in the previous quarter and 3.0% in the same quarter a year ago.

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.8% in October on a month-on-month basis, rebounding from a much weaker 0.2% in September.

Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks through the findings in the latest NAB Business Survey.

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Augmented Yield Curves in the US and Australia – what do they tell us about the growth outlook for Australia and the US?

Online sales growth faster over the month, slower for the year.

Economic growth is likely to equal its post-GFC high in 2018.

Turning 40: Charting the rise of China since reform and opening up

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index rose 0.6% in November on a month-on-month basis, repeating its 0.6% (revised) increase in October.

The Bigger Picture – A Global and Australian Economic Perspective – December 2018

Weaker indicators point to slowing economic growth in Q4

The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 2.0% on a month on month basis in November, mirroring a 2.0% gain in October.

National dwelling values slipped 0.7% lower over the month, led by larger falls in Sydney and Melbourne where the pace of decline has accelerated. Nationally, dwelling values are down 4.2% since peaking in October last year, reducing back to levels last seen in December 2016.

Slowing growth paired with greater uncertainty going forward.

First 25 basis point increase now expected in the second half of 2020.

Growth to slow – with rates now unlikely to change until the second half of 2020. See our special note on this.

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