Business Research & Insights

Bond-fuelled lending to support near-term growth but challenges remain unaddressed

Confidence remains low despite healthy conditions

Growth holding up but subdued year ahead

NAB expects follow up hike in February 2024

There was a broad-based rebound in online retail sales in September

Household financial stress eases after rising for the past 6 quarters as Australians grow more accustomed to a number of ongoing pressures, but financial concerns are still climbing among lower income earners.

SME conditions improve but smallest firms still negative

China’s third quarter growth beat expectations; 2023 forecast edges back above target

Growth to remain subdued, but avoid a major downturn

Job switching & intentions, employee satisfaction, working from home & perceptions of collaboration & productivity.

Cost pressures ease amid resilience in activity

Growth to remain subdued despite signs of resilience

Employment index rises as resilience continues

From interest rates to inflation, employment to consumer spending, NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster shares where he sees Australia’s economy heading. Watch now.

The impact on SMEs

How big is the issue for SMEs?

Soft start to Q3 signals a growing chance that China could miss its annual growth target

Flat consumption in Q2 with one more rate rise left

Conditions still above average despite warning signs.

Very slow growth likely across the states in 2023-24

RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely

SMEs see conditions weaken in Q2 as economy slows

NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in June.

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives

A slow second half, but persistent inflation

China’s recovery lost momentum in Q2 and the outlook for the second half remains cloudy

Conditions still above average despite warning signs

Could the end be nigh for the hourly billing model favoured by many professional services firms? As technology turns the dial towards value-based pricing, we examine the advantages in measuring outcomes rather than hours.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index grew rapidly this month, following on from very subdued growth over the past two months.

4.6% rate peak as recessionary forces gather

Weakness in domestic demand led to underperformance in May

Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks

Worrying signs of a slowing in activity

Hospitality business founders Bill Drakopoulos and Dave Henderson shared their experiences over a meal for NAB’s Business Founders Talk series. Hear what they had to say about the passion and drive required to build up their respective businesses.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index was flat in month-on-month in April, after a mild contraction in March.

How big is the issue for SMEs?

The impact on SMEs

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Base effects inflate growth in April; still waiting on demand to recover

Rates to pass 4% with economy to slow in response

Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months

Our economists stayed up all night so they could break down the Federal Budget for Australian businesses. Watch their take.

Federal Budget 2023 delivered a $4.2bn surplus, and focused heavily on relief – targeting energy bills and the cost of healthcare in a big way.

Conditions slowly normalising but still high for now.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth contracted in March, following the strong February result.

How prevalent are attacks & scams & how are businesses & consumers responding?

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Little improvement in cost pressures for SMEs in Q1

Services sector supports growth rebound in Q1, as base effects boost consumption

Economy to slow despite jobs, population surge

Conditions hold up, price pressures ease

The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain

Population rebounding but growth slowdown looms

The shape of Australian insolvency

Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak

NAB Online Retail Sales Index month-on-month growth accelerated in February, after returning to growth in January.

Just how resilient is the Australian economy in 2023? From consumer confidence to business spending, hear directly from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster and Metro & Specialised Banking Exec Julie Rynski. Watch now.

There’s never been a better time for regional professional services firms to take on their city counterparts. From new recruitment models to technological advances and more, here’s how to make the most of the opportunity.

The growing importance of sustainability as a consumer issue. Are SMEs ready?

Australia passing through a possible turning point

Modest reopening rebound in early 2023 with consumers yet to re-emerge

Confidence volatile but conditions still strong

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

In month-on-month terms, growth returned to the NAB Online Retail Sales Index, following on from a weak December result.

Rising rates to see slower growth ahead

Find out why NAB’s Khan Horne sees good times ahead for our regions – despite ongoing global concerns.

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%

New-year confidence boost as resilience continues

Conditions eased for SMEs in late 2022.

The founders of Empowered Women in Trades and The Kurrajong Kitchen Group sat down to share a meal – and their thoughts on building workplace diversity

How big is the issue for SMEs & what are they doing to overcome these challenges?

The impact on SMEs & how business is responding.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in December after two months of growth in October and November.

Economy beginning to slow; inflation peak passed

Transition away from zero-COVID could boost growth in 2023, however needs to rebalance towards consumption

Workplace experts, including Susan Ferrier, NAB Group Executive of People and Culture, predict what our post-pandemic model of working means for employers and employees, how to build the best model for your business and where the pitfalls lie.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Latest COVID-19 wave impacting activity in Q4; COVID policy pivot could provide boost in 2023 (after transition period).

Slow growth ahead after final rebound bump in Q3

NAB senior leaders discuss the 2023 business outlook and where the opportunities will lie.

Confidence now negative, despite strong conditions.

Growth in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index is back in positive territory.

China refines, not abandons, zero-COVID and remains without an exit strategy

The impacts on business & supporting local manufacturing to address them

Higher rates to slow growth to below 1% in 2023.

Conditions still strong but confidence weaker

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Market sentiment: is it a good time to buy, sell, renovate & other property intentions

NAB Online Retail Sales Index returns to growth in September

Easing conditions for small firms, despite strong demand

Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%

Growth rebounded in Q3, but base effects flattered the results

COVID disruptions continue to fade while growth remains strong and labour markets are tight everywhere

NAB senior leaders, and business leaders share their views on society today and how women are adapting. Watch now.

The smart plays that are seeing a cosmetic medicine operator deliver to 20,000 customers a year.

Near term resilience but a slowing ahead

Conditions roar as costs show signs of easing

The brains behind Airtasker and v2food share a meal – and their thoughts on how changing your perspective can lead to success.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index has contracted for a seventh straight month.

Base effects flatter August’s growth rates, as a fresh COVID-19 wave threatens outlook

50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22

Growth to slow as rates and inflation bite.

Our data mapping points to a slight drop in retail sales in August.

No signs of slow down yet as strong conditions roll on.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

A volatile night where earlier price action in Asia was largely reversed.

A broad rise in core global yields has been the big news overnight, fuelled by a better-than-expected US ISM report and news UK PM Truss is planning a huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus.

Eurozone bonds yields and stocks falling on the latest jump in energy prices – both oil and gas – following confirmation the NordSteeam1 gas pipeline will remain shut while Russian sanctions are in place.

A goldilocks payrolls report failed to support risk assets on Friday, with equities and the USD quickly reversing on news that Russia was not restarting gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

The bond sell-off shows no signs of abating with a stronger than expected US ISM Manufacturing helping to drive the US 10yr yield up.

August has been a terrible month for balance fund investors with no diversification gains from holding a portfolio of equities and bonds.

Goldman’s noted inflation could hit 22.4% y/y in the UK in early 2023 if gas prices don’t moderate and if there is little in the way of cost of living relief.

NAB's Online Retail Sales Index continued to contract in July.

Leave it to chance and you’re putting the future of your legal practice at risk. When it comes to succession planning, this firm of patent attorneys provides a lesson in doing things the right way.

Currency fluctuations, labour shortages, shipping logjams – it’s been a troubled two years for trading businesses. In the third instalment of our Supply Chain Q&A series, our industry experts look at the outlook for this critical part of the Australian economy.

The “Great Resignation”, Working from Home & Returning to the Office

Reopening rebound limited by weakness in domestic demand and credit appetite

Our data mapping points to moderate growth in retail sales in July.

Rebound set to fade as consumption slows in H2 2022

Confidence & conditions rally as economy strains capacity limits

Confidence falls despite strong post-Omicron conditions.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in June.

NAB now expects rates to reach 2.85% by year-end.

The impact on business, and how SMEs believe supply chain issues can best be solved.

Planning a merger or acquisition for your accounting firm? The Accounting M&A Report 2022 has the insights, data and strategies you need to succeed.

How big an issue are they for SMEs, what are their expectations & how does business think they can be resolved?

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

COVID-19 measures hit China’s economy harder than expected in Q2, and present downside risk to the outlook.

This article first appeared in the Australian Financial Review. By James Dunn.

This article first appeared in the Australian Financial Review. By Alexandra Cain.

Interest rates & inflation to weigh on the consumer.

Overall retail spending looks to be coming under increasing pressure.

NAB now expects rates to reach 2.35% by year-end.

Business confidence falls further while conditions hold up.

Global Central Banks have been lifting interest rates to combat 40-year high inflation numbers. What does this mean for commercial borrowers? Watch now.

This article first appeared in the Australian Financial Review. By Ian Grayson.

Global Central Banks have been lifting interest rates to combat 40-year high inflation numbers. What does this mean for commercial borrowers? 

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen further gains in most agricultural commodity prices, tentative signs of a stabilisation in fertiliser prices, combined with a lower AUD and a weakening global growth outlook.

The Great Rethink has employees reconsidering what they want from an employer – and whether a job fits with their lifestyle and values. Here’s how professional services firms can factor this into the value proposition they offer staff.

In this excerpt from the new NAB Regional & Agribusiness Horizons Report Dean Pearson, Head of Behavioural & Industry Economics at NAB, highlights key differences in attitudes and behaviours among city, regional and rural dwellers – including the finding that rural and regional Australians are happier.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in May.

This article first appeared in the Australian Financial Review - Mark Eggleton

COVID-19 uncertainty continues to cloud China’s economic outlook.

Our data show a drop in retail sales in May, albeit from generally strong levels seen earlier in the year.

Higher inflation, higher rates & slower growth ahead.

Confidence eases but conditions and outlook remain strong.

RBA rushing to neutral, rates to reach 2.10% by year-end.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Watch as our experts discuss the elements of a successful merger or acquisition, from building a solid strategy to understanding the importance of cultural fit to balancing pricing considerations.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted for a third consecutive month in April.

Download NAB’s Regional & Agribusiness Horizons Report for compelling new insights into regional and rural Australia.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has started raising rates for the first time since November 2010. What does this mean for commercial borrowers? Watch now.

Australia’s wellbeing falls, but the gap by income now at its narrowest in almost 3 years. Wellbeing diverging across the country, highest in TAS & lowest in WA. Home ownership a significant differentiator. Household financial stress up slightly but falling for low income earners & rising sharply for those on higher incomes. The share of Australians experiencing some form of financial hardship now at a survey low.

The global pandemic upended every aspect of trading business operations, including supply chains. In the first of NAB’s three-part series of roundtables, NAB’s Michael Saadie speaks to two industry insiders about how supply chains have been impacted and what Australia’s traders are doing to adapt and capitalise on ever-increasing consumer demand.

COVID lockdowns point to weaker growth and greater uncertainty in the near term.

Rates to rise further as strong growth continues

We see retail sales continuing to grow in April, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than previous months.

Conditions rise further on Recreation & Personal Services recovery.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted for a second consecutive month in March.

Strong CPI to bring forward first rate increase to May.

Omicron weighed on SME conditions and confidence in Q1.

COVID outbreaks dampened growth in March, and cloud near-term outlook.

March has seen smoother retail prospects when compared to the very choppy conditions across January and February, with our forecast pointing to moderate growth in the month.

Rate rises set for June as strong growth continues.

Conditions surge higher as costs, prices hit records.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

The changing workplace - attitudes to jobs, working from home & barriers to returning to the office.

RBA to hike rates in June, July, August and November, followed by a more gradual path through 2023 and 2024.

More space, more people, more practices – which growth strategy is right for you? Vet Judy Harbison and dentist Nicole Yuen share their different routes to success.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in February.

COVID disruptions have continued but State economies have been resilient and labour markets are strong.

Rapid growth and huge demand proved a cash flow challenge to toy company Connetix. Here’s how NAB specialist support bolstered their continued expansion.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

COVID and energy prices present sizeable risk to China’s ambitious growth target.

2022 started slowly on account of the Omicron wave but is now really picking up, notably in areas like hospitality and clothing and footwear.

Unemployment to fall below 4%; inflation risks build.

Activity, employment strengthen as prices push higher.

NAB now sees the first rate hike coming in August; Gradual normalisation to follow through in 2023 and 2024.

This NAB Private Wealth webinar delivers insights into Cyber Security and Fraud.

Wellbeing rose in Q4 to levels last seen before the pandemic & household financial stress remains well below the survey average.

NAB's Online Retail Sales Index returned to growth in January.

Dean Pearson, NAB's Head of Behavioural and Industry Economics shares his views on the economy, including the impacts of labour shortages on Australian businesses across a broad range of industries and insights from NAB’s latest business survey.

Despite everything the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown at the small business community the spirit of entrepreneurship is alive and well in Australia.

SME businesses shared in post-Delta rebound

Peter Loukas, Property Executive NAB presents his insights on the residential property survey.

Over 1 in 5 Australians have changed jobs in the past year. Almost 1 in 4 are considering it, with many planning to move to a new role in a new industry or take a career break.

Consumers started 2022 in an understated fashion, following some big swings in late 2021.

Strong rebound slowed by Omicron as inflation builds.

Conditions deteriorate as Omicron peaks.

We look at the domestic and global interest rates outlook for 2022 and why interest rate risk management is an important consideration for many businesses.

In month-on-month terms, our NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted again in December.

RBA to hike in November, QE to end in February as expected.

China enters 2022 with relatively weak momentum and considerable uncertainty.

Omicron dampens confidence, price pressures continue.

The return of wealthy expats and pent-up demand has fuelled record-breaking prestige sales, making for a year unlike any other.

Labour shortages through the eyes of Australian Business: How prevalent is it, expectations & how might it be resolved?

Australia's wellbeing levels fall sharply as lockdowns bite in several states. But financial stress has eased & fewer Australians are experiencing financial hardship.

November data show little underlying improvement from October’s weakness.

Activity snaps back in Q4, pre-Delta GDP within reach

Consumers continue to power ahead across the country, with post-lockdown spending gains consolidated in our November data.

Conditions stabilise as reopening progresses

Our NAB Growth Strategies from High Performing Businesses virtual panel discussion provides unique perspectives and practical knowledge to grow your business. Hear from business owners within professional services who have taken advantage of growth opportunities over the past 12 months.    

We look at which growth opportunities are present for Australian businesses looking to access new export markets and what factors may get in the way of expansion. Watch now.

A refocus on purpose has helped many organisations thrive from inside to outside. Watch this webinar to learn more about adopting new strategies and how best to share your refocussed position.

NAB senior leaders discuss the economy and the opportunities for business in 2022.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted in October, following on from lockdown enhanced strong growth in recent months.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Securing a major contract with a national supermarket chain was just the start for Goldstar… gearing up to deliver on its obligations came next. And that’s where NAB’s specialist offering and working capital solutions helped set them up for success.

To prosper in today’s very different working environment, professional services firms should look to master an ‘anywhere operations’ model. Here’s what that looks like in practice.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Partials point to a weak start to Q4, with production and retail soft and investment contracting.

NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster talks about the latest economic news. Listen now.

Retail conditions in lockdown-affected areas have clearly been challenging for many businesses, but with reopening here, consumers are bouncing back and spending has returned.

Rates lift-off brought forward as rebound begins.

Conditions and confidence rise out of lockdown.

NAB brings forward rate rise timing to mid-2023; YCC to end in November given the RBA's lack of commitment; QE to end in February.

1 in 5 Australians believe lockdowns have a very negative impact on mental health, and over 7 in 10 support vaccinated people having more freedoms.

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index continues to exhibit considerable strength.