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NAB Group Economics

“A leading team of economists who provide updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends”

NAB’s Group Economics consists of a leading team of economists who provide accurate, timely and relevant updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends.

Headed up by the Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, the team is comprised of three distinct departments:

– Australian economics and commodities
– International economics
– Industry economics

The team publish a wealth of content including reports, surveys, forecasts and indexes.

Recently Published Articles

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q4 2023

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q4 2023

22 January 2024

The NAB Consumer Stress Index rose for the fifth straight quarter, the highest since Q1 2020 and above the survey average for the first time in almost 4 years.

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q4 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

21 December 2023

There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

Insight

Build your commercial broking support base

Build your commercial broking support base

28 November 2023

Commercial broking is as much a business strategy as it is a skill set, writes Chris Thomas, executive commercial broker and equipment finance sales at NAB. Article originally published in Australian Broker on 14/11/23.

Build your commercial broking support base

Article

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

24 November 2023

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

Insight

NAB Education Special Report 2023 (Part 3)

NAB Education Special Report 2023 (Part 3)

30 October 2023

How do young people really feel about life beyond school including their career goals, potential barriers and optimism about the future? Find out more in the latest NAB Education Insights Special Report (Part 3) available for download.

NAB Education Special Report 2023 (Part 3)

Report

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2023

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2023

27 October 2023

Household financial stress eases after rising for the past 6 quarters as Australians grow more accustomed to a number of ongoing pressures, but financial concerns are still climbing among lower income earners.

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

19 October 2023

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

Insight

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

22 September 2023

Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

Article

Australian GDP Preview Q2 2023

Australian GDP Preview Q2 2023

4 September 2023

NAB sees a +0.5% q/q (1.9% y/y) GDP print for Q2 2023 which will confirm the slowing in domestic demand we have seen across other indicators. Both ABS retail sales data and our own transactions data points to a flat outcome for consumption following 0.2% growth in Q1.

Australian GDP Preview Q2 2023
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

17 August 2023

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

Insight

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: August 2023

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: August 2023

9 August 2023

The national Home Value Index rose 0.7% in July marking a fifth consecutive month in the recovery trend to-date. Since finding a floor in February, the national index is up 4.1%, following a -9.1% decline from record highs in April 2022.

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: August 2023
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

20 July 2023

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

Insight

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: July 2023

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: July 2023

11 July 2023

Australian housing values have moved through a fourth month of recovery with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index rising 1.1% in June, decelerating slightly from the 1.2% gain recorded in May.

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: July 2023
NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

22 June 2023

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

Insight

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

13 June 2023

The national measure of dwelling values recorded a third consecutive rise last month, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2%. After finding a floor in February, dwelling values nationally have increased 2.3% in the three months to May, following a 9.2% drop.

NAB Australian Housing Market Update: June 2023

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

18 May 2023

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

Insight

Australian housing market update: May 2023

Australian housing market update: May 2023

11 May 2023

It’s looking increasingly likely that Australian housing values have bottomed out, with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index having posted a second consecutive monthly rise. April’s half a percent increase, follows a 0.6% lift in March, leaving the Home Value Index 1.0% higher over the past three months.

Australian housing market update: May 2023

Report

2023 Federal Budget: NAB Economist Alan Oster’s predictions

2023 Federal Budget: NAB Economist Alan Oster’s predictions

3 May 2023

The Federal Government is signalling its budget will address cost-of-living pressures. But it’s also clear it wants to avoid spending up big. NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster shares key insights into what that might mean for Australian businesses, families and individuals.

2023 Federal Budget: NAB Economist Alan Oster’s predictions

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

20 April 2023

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2023

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2023

18 April 2023

Australian agricultural commodity prices took another downward turn last month. The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 3.6% month-on-month on lower beef, lamb, canola, dairy and wool prices. The index is now 19.7% below year-ago levels.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2023

Report

Australian housing market update: April 2023

Australian housing market update: April 2023

13 April 2023

After a six-month period where the downwards trend in housing values consistently lost steam, CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index posted the first month-on-month rise since April 2022, up 0.6% in March. Dwelling values were higher across the four largest capital cities and most of the broad ‘rest-of-state’ regions, led by a 1.4% gain in Sydney.

Australian housing market update: April 2023

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

23 February 2023

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

Insight

Australian housing market update: February 2023

Australian housing market update: February 2023

8 February 2023

The housing market started the year where it left off in 2022, chalking up the ninth consecutive monthly drop in Australian home values. The national Home Value Index was down -1% over the first month of the year following a larger -1.1% fall in December.

Australian housing market update: February 2023

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

16 December 2022

Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

Insight

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

14 December 2022

Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – November 2022

Insight

How pre-approved NAB Equipment Finance helped EMM Group power ahead

How pre-approved NAB Equipment Finance helped EMM Group power ahead

2 December 2022

Convenient access to equipment finance through NAB helped bulk material supplier and transport company EMM Group jump at an opportunity.  In equipment-intensive businesses, having fast and convenient access to finance provides flexibility that can improve business results. It’s a fact that Andrew Halloran, owner of EMM Group, which supplies quarry, soil, garden and construction materials, […]

How pre-approved NAB Equipment Finance helped EMM Group power ahead
NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

11 November 2022

We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

Insight

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

9 November 2022

Our monthly spending data showed a slowing in spending in October, particularly in discretionary areas such as household goods and recreation & travel, although growth held up in the hospitality sector.

NAB Economics Monthly Data Insights – October 2022

Insight

Australian housing market update: November 2022

Australian housing market update: November 2022

9 November 2022

CoreLogic’s national home value index moved through its sixth month of decline last month, with values down a further 1.2%, taking the cumulative drop from the market peak to 6.0%.

Australian housing market update: November 2022

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

14 October 2022

Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

Insight

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

12 October 2022

National housing market sentiment fell to below survey average levels in Q3 2022 as the downturn in the national housing market gathered speed and spread wider. Solid growth in rental markets however continued to provide some support.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2022

Insight

Australian housing market update: October 2022

Australian housing market update: October 2022

12 October 2022

CoreLogic reported a further fall in housing values through the first month of spring, with our national Home Value Index recording a -1.4% decline. Although values are still falling quite rapidly, the rate of decline eased from a -1.6% fall in August.

Australian housing market update: October 2022

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

16 September 2022

We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

10 September 2022

Australian agricultural commodity prices have continued to unwind, posting a second month of lower prices as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index. This comes against a backdrop of continued excellent seasonal conditions, but elevated input costs and rapidly rising interest rates to control global inflation.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2022

Report

Australian housing market update: September 2022

Australian housing market update: September 2022

9 September 2022

The housing downturn accelerated through August, as falling values became more widespread, taking CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index into a fourth consecutive month of decline. The national index was down -1.6% over the month, which was the largest month-on-month decline since 1983.

Australian housing market update: September 2022

Report

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

12 August 2022

We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

15 July 2022

Globally, major central banks continue to tighten monetary policy in response to the highest inflation in decades, thereby straining household finances and leading to falls in asset prices. For Australia, we have not changed our view on the underlying trajectory for the economy but see greater risk for household consumption on the back of higher rates and inflation.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

Insight

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q2 2022

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q2 2022

23 June 2022

Consumer stress up again due to cost of living, but job pressures hit a 4-year low. Purchasing expectations fall sharply, particularly for travel.

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q2 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

17 June 2022

Global inflation remains high and showing no signs of easing, placing pressure on household finances. For Australia, we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

Insight

Australian housing market update: June 2022

Australian housing market update: June 2022

7 June 2022

Housing markets lost more steam in May as a combination of higher interest rates, rising inventory levels and lower sentiment dampened conditions. CoreLogic’s Home Value Index showed Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values continued to record the most significant month-on-month falls, while Canberra recorded its first monthly decline since July 2019.

Australian housing market update: June 2022

Insight

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q1 2022

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q1 2022

19 May 2022

Consumer stress rises as concerns over cost of living hit a 2-year high. But, ahead of the federal election & with very low unemployment, stress relating to government policy & job security eased.

NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q1 2022

Insight

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q1 2022

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q1 2022

18 May 2022

Australia’s wellbeing falls, but the gap by income now at its narrowest in almost 3 years. Wellbeing diverging across the country, highest in TAS & lowest in WA. Home ownership a significant differentiator. Household financial stress up slightly but falling for low income earners & rising sharply for those on higher incomes. The share of Australians experiencing some form of financial hardship now at a survey low.

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q1 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

13 May 2022

We now expect the global economy to grow by around 3.4% in 2022 and 2023. For Australia, we continue to be optimistic on the economy expecting above-trend growth this year and ongoing strength in the labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

Insight

Australian housing market update: May 2022

Australian housing market update: May 2022

10 May 2022

Housing values are still rising at the national level, however, with a rise of just 0.6% over the month, April’s growth rate was the lowest reading since October 2020.

Australian housing market update: May 2022

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2022

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2022

27 April 2022

Commodity prices remain generally very elevated, although some (particularly dairy, cattle and sheep) have eased somewhat recently, albeit from record or near-record levels.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: April 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

14 April 2022

The global economic outlook remains clouded by numerous factors, however, we expect that the global economy will grow by 3.7% in 2022 and then slow to a trend- like 3.5% in 2023. For Australia, GDP is expected to grow by a strong 3.4% this year – supported by healthy growth in consumption and ongoing gains in business investment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022

13 April 2022

March has seen smoother retail prospects when compared to the very choppy conditions across January and February, with our forecast pointing to moderate growth in the month.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

11 March 2022

Globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a significant spike in energy prices – reflecting the importance of Russia in the production and export of oil, natural gas and coal, in combination with limited additional supply elsewhere. Locally, the war in Europe poses risks on both the activity and nominal sides of the economy, uncertainty is now highly elevated – but the central-case for Australia’s economy largely remains strong.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

Insight

NAB Education Insight Report 2022

NAB Education Insight Report 2022

28 February 2022

Key intergenerational differences emerge in what is valued most in a private education. Children have a growing voice, with over 1 in 2 very involved in the final school selection.

NAB Education Insight Report 2022

Insight

NAB Economics live webinar with Dean Pearson

NAB Economics live webinar with Dean Pearson

18 February 2022

Dean Pearson, NAB's Head of Behavioural and Industry Economics shares his views on the economy, including the impacts of labour shortages on Australian businesses across a broad range of industries and insights from NAB’s latest business survey.

NAB Economics live webinar with Dean Pearson

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

14 February 2022

Globally the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has spread rapidly; the sheer number of cases is disrupting economic activity as infected workers are forced to isolate. In Australia, we have revised up the expected rebound in Q4 GDP, but pulled down Q1 2022 as the spread of omicron weighs on the economy through both consumer caution as well as disruption to business.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

Insight

NAB Behavioural Insights – Great Resignation

NAB Behavioural Insights – Great Resignation

10 February 2022

Over 1 in 5 Australians have changed jobs in the past year. Almost 1 in 4 are considering it, with many planning to move to a new role in a new industry or take a career break.

NAB Behavioural Insights – Great Resignation

Insight

Luxury Property Market Update

Luxury Property Market Update

13 January 2022

The return of wealthy expats and pent-up demand has fuelled record-breaking prestige sales, making for a year unlike any other.

Luxury Property Market Update

Article

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

17 December 2021

For Australia the Q3 national accounts showed a smaller hit to activity than we had expected but we continue to see a very strong snap back in activity in Q4. Globally, advanced economy growth was robust in Q3, and a similar outcome is expected in Q4 albeit with a shift in the source of growth away from Europe towards the US and Japan.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

Insight

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2021

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2021

16 December 2021

Australia's wellbeing levels fall sharply as lockdowns bite in several states. But financial stress has eased & fewer Australians are experiencing financial hardship.

NAB Australian Wellbeing Survey Q3 2021

Insight

Housing: is it a good time to buy?

Housing: is it a good time to buy?

22 November 2021

One in 10 Australians has moved during the pandemic, with many leaving capital cities for greener pastures. Here, the behavioural economist Dean Pearson explains what this means for house prices in 2022.

Housing: is it a good time to buy?

Article

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: November 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: November 2021

17 November 2021

La Nina is now officially underway, with the Bureau of Meteorology declaring the event on 23 November. Current modelling suggests the event will persist until late summer or early autumn 2022.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: November 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

12 November 2021

We have trimmed our global economic forecasts this month to 5.7% for 2021, however should this occur, it would still be the strongest rate of growth since 1973. For Australia, our internal data and NAB Monthly Business Survey indicate the economy is again rebounding strongly as NSW and Vic reopen following the extended lockdowns through mid-2021.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021

10 November 2021

Retail conditions in lockdown-affected areas have clearly been challenging for many businesses, but with reopening here, consumers are bouncing back and spending has returned.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2021

Insight

Australian housing market update: November 2021

Australian housing market update: November 2021

4 November 2021

Australian housing values rose 1.5% last month, a similar result to August and September. However, the trend shows the market is continuing to slowly lose momentum since moving through a peak monthly rate of growth in March 2021, when values were up 2.8%.

Australian housing market update: November 2021

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

21 October 2021

The good news just keeps rolling on for Australian agriculture, with already very good seasonal conditions boosted by the increasing possibility of a La Nina event, combined with ongoing commodity price strength.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

15 October 2021

We have revised our global economic forecasts lower – to 5.9% for 2021. For Australia, a very sharp fall in activity in Q3 is locked in however we continue to expect a solid rebound in Q4 , and strong growth continuing into early 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

Insight

Australian housing market update: October 2021

Australian housing market update: October 2021

11 October 2021

Australian housing values rose 17.6% higher over the first nine months of the year and 20.3% higher over the past 12 months. The annual growth rate is now tracking at the fastest pace since the year ending June 1989.

Australian housing market update: October 2021

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

23 September 2021

COVID 19 continues to be the main driver of growth both in the recovery phase and as the Delta variant spreads. With vaccines looking promising 2021 looks like being a bounce back year.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

17 September 2021

COVID 19 remains the main risk to the global economic outlook, while in Australia the key risks to our forecasts remain the timing and pace of the easing in restrictions, and further out, the underlying pace of growth as the impact of policy measures fades.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

Insight

NAB Australian Financial Wellbeing Survey Q2 2021

NAB Australian Financial Wellbeing Survey Q2 2021

23 August 2021

Household financial stress up on rising concerns over monthly household expenses. There's also a growing economic divide between low & high-income earners, jobless & employed, and fewer Australians believe now is a good time to buy a home.

NAB Australian Financial Wellbeing Survey Q2 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

13 August 2021

Due to lockdowns, we expect to see a large hit to activity in Australia in Q3. Our global growth forecast for 2021 is marginally weaker this month, 6.2% compared with 6.3% previously.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

16 July 2021

COVID-19 remains the most significant risk for our global outlook. While in Australia, the current virus outbreak in NSW and associated lockdowns/border closures highlights the uncertainty around economic forecasting at present.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

Insight

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

22 June 2021

Agricultural commodity prices continue to perform generally very well, rounding out a generally strong period for many agricultural producers.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

16 April 2021

High frequency indicators continue to point to a recovery in the global economy in early 2021. In Australia, the economic recovery continues at a brisk pace with forward indicators pointing toward ongoing strength in activity and the labour market, even as some fiscal support is wound back.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021

14 April 2021

2021 is already showing signs that the retail sector is returning to something resembling “normal”, which is likely to see lower retail spending in areas like household goods, electronics and similar sectors.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

12 March 2021

Rising restrictions to combat a resurgence in the spread of COVID-19 towards the end of 2020 slowed the global recovery but did not derail it. In Australia, the economy continues to recover at a rapid pace.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

Insight

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

10 March 2021

COVID-19 continues to present some uncertainty around the outlook, particularly with the rollout of vaccines to emerging markets lagging that of advanced economies.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

12 February 2021

The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. Whereas in Australia, economic activity continues to rebound strongly.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

11 December 2020

Globally GDP rebounded strongly across all the major advanced economies in Q3, however the spread of COVID-19 remains a key risk to the outlook. In Australia our outlook now resembles the best-case scenario we outlined at the start of the pandemic, although large uncertainties remain, even with a vaccine seemingly close to being rolled out.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

Insight

Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Minerals Energy Outlook: December 2020

9 December 2020

Markets have been buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news, which could correspond with stronger economic activity and demand for commodities next year.

Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Insight

Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020

Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020

9 December 2020

Victorian retail sales are now tracking just behind New South Wales and Queensland on a year ended basis. Western Australia remains the strongest performer, but other states are catching up.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: November 2020

Insight

NAB Consumer Cashflow Analysis – Q3 2020

NAB Consumer Cashflow Analysis – Q3 2020

12 November 2020

Our November note updates our analysis for the September quarter, but also takes a closer look at how consumers who withdrew their superannuation funds early have used their retirement funds.

NAB Consumer Cashflow Analysis – Q3 2020
Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020

11 November 2020

The retail sector has proven to be very resilient this year, although many consumers have changed their spending behaviour, leading to a boom for some retailers and bust for others.

Cashless Retail Sales Index: October 2020

Insight

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020

5 November 2020

With COVID-19 restrictions easing across much of the country, consumer anxiety has continued to moderate and spending behaviours are shifting.

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q3 2020

Insight

NAB Economics Consumer Cashflow Analysis

NAB Economics Consumer Cashflow Analysis

16 September 2020

In our new Consumer Cashlflow Analysis report, we explore the stresses in household balance sheets and hence macroeconomic impacts on consumers spending behaviours.

NAB Economics Consumer Cashflow Analysis

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

11 September 2020

Globally, after massive falls in GDP in Q2 across the advanced economies, the latest indicators are pointing to a substantial, but incomplete, Q3 rebound. In Australia, GDP fell by 7% in Q2 – the largest fall in the history of the quarterly national accounts.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

Insight

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

2 September 2020

Q2 GDP fell by a massive 7% (-6.3% y/y), confirming the large hit to economic activity as a result of the shutdown to limit the COVID-19 pandemic.

Australian GDP Preview: Q2 2020

Insight

NAB Trade & Working Capital and Markets Insights

NAB Trade & Working Capital and Markets Insights

1 September 2020

Gary Hester, Specialised Business Executive and Daniel Norman, Associate Director NAB Markets provide an overview of the COVID-related customer support and outline its Trade and Working Capital Banking capabilities.

NAB Trade & Working Capital and Markets Insights

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

14 August 2020

The global economy continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19. However, there is still a long way back with progress. In Australia, we have downgraded our forecasts due to the containment measures in Victoria.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

Podcast

Australian housing market update: August 2020

Australian housing market update: August 2020

10 August 2020

Record low interest rates, government support and loan repayment holidays for distressed borrowers have helped to insulate the housing market from a more significant downturn.

Australian housing market update: August 2020

Insight

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020

15 July 2020

Our data mapping points to a moderate fall in June, following massive swings in March, April and May suggesting there has been some stabilisation in retail sales.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: June 2020

Podcast

NAB Private Client Webinar with Alan Oster

NAB Private Client Webinar with Alan Oster

6 July 2020

NAB Private Customer Executive Greg Morris hosts NAB Chief Econonist Alan Oster, sharing his thoughts on the current state of the Australian economy and the road to recovery.

NAB Private Client Webinar with Alan Oster

Webinar

NAB Private Melbourne Residential Property Insights Webinar

NAB Private Melbourne Residential Property Insights Webinar

25 June 2020

NAB Private Customer Executive Greg Morris hosts Charter Keck & Cramer Chairman Scott Keck and NAB Valuations Manager Alex Dimou to discuss the Melbourne residential property landscape and share their positive outlook for the market.

NAB Private Melbourne Residential Property Insights Webinar

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020

12 June 2020

Extremely large falls in Q2 GDP for many advanced and emerging economies are likely, while in Australia we expect a large fall of around 8.5% in Q2, following the 0.3% decline in Q1.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020
NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

11 June 2020

The trend improvement in consumption-based spending remains positive, but NAB’s latest data read suggests it may be levelling off and even slowing a little.

NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

Insight

NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020

28 May 2020

The overall trend in consumption spending continues to improve, but in 4-week moving average terms is down 7.8% over the same time last year and 5.8% since the start of 2020.

NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020

Insight

NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020

14 May 2020

Large falls in consumption-based spending although the pace of decline looks to have stabilised. However business payment inflows have weakened further.

NAB Economics Data Insights, May 2020

Insight

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

13 May 2020

Commodity prices generally fell in April – with particularly steep falls in oil and LNG markets, along with declines in iron ore and coal.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020
NAB Economics Update Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

24 April 2020

Co-hosted by Biljana Nikolova - Customer Executive, Government, Education and Community and Shamal Dass - Head of Philanthropic Services, JBWere, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy; and Daniel Farrell - Associate Director, Rates, Global Markets shares his view on interest rate risk management.

NAB Economics Update Webinar

Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

NAB Economics Update Webinar

17 April 2020

Hosted by Greg Morris - Customer Executive, NAB Private, and Kate Galvin - Customer Executive, NAB Health, this webinar includes guest speaker Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist sharing NAB’s view on the economy.

NAB Economics Update Webinar

Webinar

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

17 April 2020

The global economy is in a deep recession due to the rapid and widespread escalation in Covid-19 containment measures since mid-March. While the domestic economy is now expected to see a contraction of an unprecedented speed and magnitude.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

16 March 2020

We've significantly lowered our global growth forecasts, and in Australia growth slowed confirming a below-trend pace of growth prior to any virus impact.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020
NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2019

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2019

28 January 2020

The cost of living remains the single biggest driver of consumer anxiety, despite low levels of economy-wide inflation. To understand why, we asked Australians to tell us which costs are adding most to their living expenses.

NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey Q4 2019
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2019

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2019

22 January 2020

Our forecast points to a negative (-0.1% m/m) print for December, in line with our view that the strong November ABS print largely represented Christmas spending brought forward by expanded Black Friday sales.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019

13 December 2019

Unchanged forecasts for Australia with expected growth of 1.75% while across the globe we expect US growth to ease somewhat further and Japan’s economy is set to contract in Q4.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019

12 November 2019

Conditions and confidence each saw a small improvement in the month with conditions edging up 1pt and confidence lifting 2pts – though both remain below average.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

14 October 2019

With growth having slowed in Q2 2019, there appears limited prospect of a turnaround in Q3 – given the relative weakness in business surveys, market expectations and the deteriorating global trade environment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019

8 October 2019

Business conditions rose 1pt in September to +2 index points. This continues the below average run of business conditions but suggests that the trend weakening since mid-2018 has slowed.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2019
NAB Agribusiness Banker Survey: August 2019

NAB Agribusiness Banker Survey: August 2019

10 September 2019

Our third Agribusiness Banker Survey brings a somewhat more encouraging headline figure for agribusiness conditions, although conditions in NSW and to a lesser extent Queensland remain challenging. Spring rain is sorely needed to see an improvement.

NAB Agribusiness Banker Survey: August 2019
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2019

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2019

21 August 2019

We continue to see considerable disparities between retail sub-sectors. On a yearly basis, our data shows department stores, clothing and footwear going backwards, while household goods is barely in positive territory. Cafes, restaurants & takeaways are outperforming.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: July 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

16 August 2019

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war has reverberated through financial markets. The policy response will be important - we now expect two further 25bp cuts in the fed funds rate this year. China is also likely to use policy measures to offset any tariff impact, including allowing further depreciation of its currency.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019
The Forward View – Global: August 2019

The Forward View – Global: August 2019

15 August 2019

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war – with the US imposing a 10% tariff on most remaining China imports – has reverberated through financial markets.

The Forward View – Global: August 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019

13 August 2019

We're seeing below average confidence and conditions. The picture remains unchanged since last month - business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators don't point to an improvement in the near term.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

12 July 2019

Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: May 2019

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: May 2019

19 June 2019

The ABS retail trade measure will see a modest (0.2% m/m) return to positive territory in May, indicating little or no bounce back from April’s disappointing result.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: May 2019
State Economic Handbook: April 2019

State Economic Handbook: April 2019

18 April 2019

Deterioration in conditions in most states, with current momentum negative. Household sector weakness evident, investment still ok (outside mining), while agri. facing easing prices and needs rain. Housing sector downturn, population growth centred on the eastern states, agricultural prices easing.

State Economic Handbook: April 2019
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2019

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2019

17 April 2019

The strong ABS print in February exceeded our expectations and indeed those of the market. It’s fair to say that we are sceptical whether such strong growth will continue.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: March 2019
NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019

12 March 2019

Business conditions fell by 3 pts to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. Employment was unchanged at +5. Confidence fell 2pts in the month to +2 index points.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

12 February 2019

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 2.7% this quarter – driven almost entirely by the upturn in iron ore prices.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q4 2018

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q4 2018

8 February 2019

Consumer anxiety reaches its highest level in over 3 years as slow income growth, high debt levels and weaker growth in household wealth weighed on households and their spending.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q4 2018
NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q4 2018

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q4 2018

24 January 2019

Australian housing market sentiment ends the year on a very weak note falling to new Survey lows, according to property professionals. Confidence levels (expectations) also drop to below average levels suggesting market momentum will probably fall further.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q4 2018
NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2018

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2018

23 January 2019

This month we continue our podcast series to accompany the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index. It’s a short, 10 minute podcast, designed to give you a quick summary of the major drivers of the index this month. To listen, just click the link below.

NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index: December 2018
Australian Housing Market Update December 2018

Australian Housing Market Update December 2018

17 December 2018

National dwelling values slipped 0.7% lower over the month, led by larger falls in Sydney and Melbourne where the pace of decline has accelerated. Nationally, dwelling values are down 4.2% since peaking in October last year, reducing back to levels last seen in December 2016.

Australian Housing Market Update December 2018
Forward View December 2018

Forward View December 2018

12 December 2018

Growth to slow – with rates now unlikely to change until the second half of 2020. See our special note on this.

Forward View December 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: November 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: November 2018

14 November 2018

On a rolling quarterly basis, dwelling values are now trending lower across both the combined capital city regions, where they were 1.6% lower, as well as across the combined regional areas of Australia where values were almost 1% lower.

Australian Housing Market Update: November 2018
NAB SME Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

NAB SME Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

25 October 2018

Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) business conditions edged lower in Q3 2018 to +11, while SME business confidence fell to +2pts. While conditions have eased over the past two quarters, they remain well above average, though confidence has declined to below average levels.

NAB SME Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018

24 October 2018

Anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns and how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q3 2018
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018

18 October 2018

The business conditions index decreased 2pts to +13 in 2018 Q3, but remains well above its long-run average. Business confidence also fell, declining 4pts to +3 index points, a little below its historical average.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: Quarter 3 2018
NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index September 2018

NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index September 2018

17 October 2018

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index gained 0.2% in September on a month-on-month basis, its weakest result since April this year. Five out of six major categories grew in the month; while other retailing contracted.

NAB Monthly Cashless Retail Sales Index September 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018

15 October 2018

In US dollar terms, the NAB non-rural commodity price index rose marginally in Q3 2018 – increasing by 0.4% qoq. The strong upturn in the first quarter of this year contributed to a much more significant increase in year-on-year terms – up by 8.2%.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: October 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: October 2018

12 October 2018

The Australian housing market continued to weaken over the month, with national dwelling values falling 0.5% in September, marking twelve months of consistently falling values across CoreLogic’s national hedonic home value index.

Australian Housing Market Update: October 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018

9 October 2018

Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: September 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018

11 September 2018

The business conditions index rose by 2pts to +15 index points in August, recovering some of the ground lost in recent months. Business confidence fell 3pts to +4 index points and is now below average.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: September 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: September 2018

4 September 2018

The last month of winter saw the housing market correction deepen, with dwelling values falling across five of Australia’s eight capital cities. CoreLogic’s national index was down three tenths of a percent over the month taking the cumulative decline since values peaked in September last year to 2.2%.

Australian Housing Market Update: September 2018
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018

30 August 2018

Total NAB customer spending grew 5.6% y/y in Q2 2018, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 3.9% in the same quarter a year ago. It grew faster in metropolitan (6.5%) than regional (5.1%) areas.

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q2 2018
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018

23 August 2018

Consumer anxiety up steeply in Q2. Overall spending tightens as concerns about the economy and our household financial positions grow. Spending on utilities a key expense, and growing.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey Q2 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

17 August 2018

Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018

14 August 2018

The business conditions index fell by 2pts to +12 index points in July, continuing its run of declines since April. Business confidence ticked up 1pt to +7 index points, an around average level.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018

10 July 2018

The business conditions index ticked up by 1pt to +15 index points in June, after easing in the previous month. The business confidence edged down 1pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

5 July 2018

NAB’s USD non-rural commodity price index declined by over 3% q/q in Q2 2018. This only partially reversed the large gain made in the previous quarter and, as a result, it is still 7.5% higher than a year ago. The fall in Q2 mainly reflected a decline in iron ore and metallurgical coal prices, although LNG export prices – linked to the price of oil – rose.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018
NAB Infrastructure Survey 2018

NAB Infrastructure Survey 2018

4 July 2018

New research released today by NAB shows electricity and roads have the biggest impact on our daily lives - affecting almost 1 in 2 people (either positively or negatively).

NAB Infrastructure Survey 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: June 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: June 2018

15 June 2018

Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year.

Australian Housing Market Update: June 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018

12 June 2018

The business conditions index decreased by 6pts to +15 index points, easing back from the historical highs seen in April. The business confidence index fell by 5pts to +6 index points, to be around its long-run average level.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: May 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: May 2018

16 May 2018

Nationally dwelling values continued their downwards trend last month; the seventh consecutive month on month decline since the national index series peaked in September last year.

Australian Housing Market Update: May 2018
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017

4 May 2018

Total NAB customer spending accelerated to 5.0% y/y in Q4 2017, from 3.0% y/y in the previous quarter with spending growth up across all metropolitan and regional areas.

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q4 2017
NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018

26 April 2018

Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – anxieties around future spending and savings plans, household finances, the economy, financial concerns & how these are impacting spending behaviours and levels of financial hardship.

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey Q1 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: April 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: April 2018

16 April 2018

Australian dwelling values held firm in March, with the combined capitals continuing a softening trend, recording a 0.2% fall, while regional markets saw a 0.4% rise in values over the month.

Australian Housing Market Update: April 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018

13 April 2018

After a somewhat disappointing 2017 we continue to expect growth to gain more momentum during 2018 – with GDP increasing by around 3% through the year or 2.8% in year average terms.

NAB’s World on two pages: April 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018

16 March 2018

Financial market volatility has eased since the US equity market correction in late January but a range of geo-political and market events could trigger another bout of uncertainty.

NAB’s World on two pages: March 2018
NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2018

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2018

13 March 2018

The business conditions index moved 3pts higher to +21 index points. This is a record high since the monthly survey commenced in March 1997, although the same measure in NAB’s quarterly survey reached this level in 1994.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: February 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: March 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: March 2018

13 March 2018

Nationally, dwelling values recorded their fifth consecutive monthly decline in February, taking the value of housing 0.8% lower since the market peaked in September last year.

Australian Housing Market Update: March 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

20 February 2018

Stability in financial markets over 2017 and early 2018 came to abrupt end in recent weeks, with a surge in market volatility and big falls in equity markets and prices for many commodities.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: February 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: February 2018

16 February 2018

The calm in financial markets for much of 2017 and into early 2018 recently came to an abrupt end with a surge in market volatility and big falls in share prices.

NAB’s World on two pages: February 2018
Australian Housing Market Update: February 2018

Australian Housing Market Update: February 2018

15 February 2018

CoreLogic reported further slippage in dwelling values over the first month of 2018, with national dwelling values recording their second consecutive month on month decline. After dwelling values held firm in October and November, they slipped by a third of a percent in both December and January to be down 0.7% from their peak.

Australian Housing Market Update: February 2018
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: December Quarter 2017

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: December Quarter 2017

8 February 2018

The quarterly NAB Business Survey gives a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: December Quarter 2017
NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2017

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2017

7 February 2018

NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index* was basically unchanged in Q4 2017 at near survey lows with job security causing Australians the least stress, consistent with a strongly improving labour market.

NAB Quarterly Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2017
NAB’s World on two pages: December 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: December 2017

15 December 2017

Last month’s spike in business conditions was completely unwound in the November NAB Monthly Business Survey, although the index remains at very elevated levels. Business confidence has been less volatile, but appears to be showing a modest downward trend.

NAB’s World on two pages: December 2017
Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017

Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017

1 December 2017

The economy is likely to have grown at a solid clip in Q3. While some pieces of the growth puzzle are falling into place, the stark divergence between business and consumer spending remains despite jobs growth. Non-mining and infrastructure investment will be encouraging for the RBA, but higher wages growth is required.

Australia GDP Preview: Q3 2017
NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017

17 November 2017

The read on business conditions was extremely strong in the October NAB Monthly Business Survey, with manufacturing posting a strong result despite the recent closure of auto manufacturing plants. The conditions index jumped to a record high, and while confidence is not quite as buoyant, it is holding above long-run average levels.

NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017
State Economic Handbook: October 2017

State Economic Handbook: October 2017

17 October 2017

Economic growth in most states is expected to strengthen somewhat in 2017-18 before moderating a little in 2018-19 as dwelling investment and LNG exports peak.

State Economic Handbook: October 2017
NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2017

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2017

13 October 2017

Australian housing market sentiment lifted over the third quarter of 2017, supported mainly by a large increase in the number of property experts reporting positive rental growth in the quarter and continued house price growth in most states.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2017
NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017

13 October 2017

For Australia, outcomes in the September NAB Monthly Business Survey were generally upbeat. Business conditions remain rock steady at levels close to their multi-year highs, but business confidence rose only modestly after a big fall last month.

NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q2 2017

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q2 2017

27 September 2017

Insights into the mindset of Australian consumers – their anxieties around future spending and savings plans, what drives these concerns and how they are impacting actual spending behaviours and financial hardship.

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q2 2017
NAB Labs Innovation Index 2017

NAB Labs Innovation Index 2017

20 September 2017

Australia’s next phase of growth must be defined by ideas, creativity and execution. Our future lies in our ability to foster a culture of innovation. But how do we measure innovation across all sizes and types of business?

NAB Labs Innovation Index 2017
Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017

Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017

4 September 2017

Q2 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 6 September at 11:30am AEST. Additional partials will be available tomorrow and may alter our forecast.

Australia GDP Preview: Q2 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017

11 August 2017

The July NAB Monthly Business Survey showed a continuation of the strong run enjoyed by the business sector. Business conditions rose to their highest level since early 2008, while confidence also strengthened.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June 2017

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June 2017

20 July 2017

The business sector continues to look upbeat, both with respect to current business activity – also evident in the NAB Monthly Business Survey – and importantly, the near-term outlook.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017

14 July 2017

Revisions to real GDP growth forecasts this month largely reflect a stronger than expected rebound in coal exports following disruptions from Cyclone Debbie in Q1. Further out, we have not fundamentally changed the tone of our outlook.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017
Gold in focus: July 2017

Gold in focus: July 2017

13 July 2017

Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.

Gold in focus: July 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017

11 July 2017

Business conditions hit another multi-year high, with most industries performing well. Stronger trading conditions (sales) and profitability drove the improvement, while employment conditions were steady.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: June 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017

16 June 2017

The NAB Monthly Business Survey was a little softer in May, but still points to a healthy business sector. Business conditions are elevated and confidence is holding up above long-run average levels.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017
Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017

Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017

15 June 2017

Financial anxiety eases but 4 in 10 consumers still experienced some form of financial hardship in the last 3 months. Financial anxiety continues to be a bigger issue for young people (particularly women) and low income earners.

Financial Anxiety Survey: Q1 2017
NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2017

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2017

31 May 2017

New data released by NAB today shows that spending on consumption-based goods and services by NAB customers slowed to 2.0% over the year to Q1 2017, from 3.1% over the year to Q4 2016.

NAB Customer Spending Behaviours: Q1 2017
NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q1 2017

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q1 2017

24 May 2017

NAB’s Consumer Anxiety Index - which measures concerns about future spending and savings arising from job security, health, retirement, cost of living and government polices - fell to a survey low 55.9 points in Q1 2017 (58.7 in Q4 2016).

NAB Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q1 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017

8 May 2017

The NAB Monthly Business Survey posted another strong result in April, with both business conditions and confidence improving – pointing to ongoing strength in business activity in the near-term.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2017
NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016

NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016

26 April 2017

Australians remain highly anxious. While having more money might solve some of our concerns, it would do little to solve some of the biggest detractors of wellbeing. But, it could help close the “wellbeing gap” between high and low income earners.

NAB Australian Wellbeing Index: Q4 2016
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017

17 March 2017

In February, the NAB Monthly Business Survey moderated from the surprising strength seen in January, but remained consistent with a relatively robust view of business activity and investment behaviour in the near-term.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017
State Economic Handbook: March 2017

State Economic Handbook: March 2017

8 March 2017

Growth will remain solid across the large south-eastern states, while there are signs of stabilisation in mining states as the end of the downswing in resource-related investment approaches.

State Economic Handbook: March 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017

17 February 2017

Business surveys and measures tracking the volume of activity suggest that the global economic upturn lifted a notch toward the end of last year and that trend seems to have continued into early 2017.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

14 February 2017

The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017
US Economic Update: February 2017

US Economic Update: February 2017

10 February 2017

The US economy continues along the same moderate growth path it has experienced in its recovery from the Global Financial Crisis.

US Economic Update: February 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016

31 January 2017

Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016
The Forward View – Global: December 2016

The Forward View – Global: December 2016

14 December 2016

Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth, they have been improving in the months leading up to November.

The Forward View – Global: December 2016
NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2016

NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2016

11 November 2016

Monthly business survey readings provide the most up to date measure of the pulse of global economic growth – and they have been improving in the months leading up to October.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: November 2016
NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2016

8 November 2016

Business confidence has proven to be relatively resilient this year, but did moderate in October – falling 2 points to +4 index points (below the long-run average of +6).

NAB Monthly Business Survey: October 2016
NAB Quarterly Business Survey: September 2016

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: September 2016

20 October 2016

The quarterly iteration of the NAB Business Survey provides additional valuable insight into Australian business than the regular NAB Monthly Business Survey. This publication offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: September 2016
The Forward View – Australia: October 2016

The Forward View – Australia: October 2016

14 October 2016

The outlook for the labour market is key. While we continue to expect the unemployment rate to remain in its recent range between 5½% and 5¾%, the recent softening in trend employment growth bears close watching.

The Forward View – Australia: October 2016
The forward view – Australia: September 2016

The forward view – Australia: September 2016

15 September 2016

How one assesses Australia’s economic performance at present depends in large part on which industry / geography one looks at and whether the benchmark is in real or nominal terms.

The forward view – Australia: September 2016
NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016

13 September 2016

The results from this month’s survey remain broadly consistent with our prior view of the economy and the near-term outlook. It points to a patchy, but sustained, improvement in the non-mining economy, with the major services sectors and construction leading the way.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: August 2016
Housing Market Report – Winter 2016 Edition

Housing Market Report – Winter 2016 Edition

15 August 2016

The Housing Market Report is your guide to the current home value trends in Australia. You’ll find information about what’s happened over the last 12 months, as well as NAB’s expectations of where prices are headed in the near future.

Housing Market Report – Winter 2016 Edition
Improving Community Connections – August 2016

Improving Community Connections – August 2016

11 August 2016

Through our research on wellbeing Australians have told us that they believe it is important for them to feel “connected” with their local community. But how connected do they really feel and what would they change within their communities to improve their sense of personal wellbeing?

Improving Community Connections – August 2016
NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2016

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2016

11 August 2016

Sentiment in the retail commercial property market has risen to its highest level in over six years. However, strong retail market confidence was not enough to offset the lower sentiment recorded across the office, industrial and CBD hotels sectors. Overall, the NAB Commercial Property Index fell 7 points to +5 in the second quarter of this year.

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q2 2016
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016

10 August 2016

Global financial markets have digested the latest shock – the UK’s “Brexit” vote – quite well. In Australia, business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2016
NAB change in cash rate call:  August 2016

NAB change in cash rate call: August 2016

9 August 2016

At its August meeting, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 1.5% (against our expectations) following a similarly-sized 25bp cut in May. Major banks have since passed on some, but not all, of the easing through to lending rates.

NAB change in cash rate call:  August 2016
NAB Monthly Business Survey:  July 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: July 2016

9 August 2016

Business sentiment has shown great resilience to external shocks in the July NAB Monthly Business Survey, with firms choosing to remain focussed on the positive trends within their own business.

NAB Monthly Business Survey:  July 2016
NAB SME Business Survey: June 2016

NAB SME Business Survey: June 2016

28 July 2016

The NAB SME Survey revealed very strong results across a wide range of indicators in Q2, suggesting that the non-mining recovery is broadening to include smaller businesses.

NAB SME Business Survey: June 2016
NAB Quarterly Business Survey:  June 2016

NAB Quarterly Business Survey: June 2016

21 July 2016

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides valuable insight into Australian business, and offers a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey:  June 2016
State Economic Handbook:  July 2016

State Economic Handbook: July 2016

21 July 2016

Solid growth across the large south-eastern states has become increasingly entrenched over the past year, while difficult conditions in the mining sector are having a more pervasive impact across Western Australia, the Northern Territory and parts of Queensland.

State Economic Handbook:  July 2016
NAB Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016

NAB Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016

15 July 2016

Housing sentiment softens but still positive. Victoria and Queensland expected to provide the best capital returns in the next 1-2 years as prices continue falling in WA. Overall demand from foreign buyers continues to shrink as buyers retreat from Queensland and re-focus towards Victoria.

NAB Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016
Brexit and World Growth

Brexit and World Growth

12 July 2016

In our latest global forecast update we revised down our United Kingdom (UK) year-average GDP growth forecasts in the wake of the UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) – so called Brexit.

Brexit and World Growth
NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016

14 June 2016

This month’s NAB Business Survey remains true to theme of ongoing recovery in the non-mining economy, building on the already solid growth seen in the recent National Accounts.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: May 2016
India GDP Q1 2016

India GDP Q1 2016

8 June 2016

The Indian economy expanded by 7.9% in the final (March 2016) quarter of the 2015-16 financial year; India is now the fastest-growing major economy.

India GDP Q1 2016
Australian exports to East Asia

Australian exports to East Asia

29 April 2016

NAB surveyed Australian business integration with East Asia in September 2014 and China in December 2015. Recent headline trade data indicate a reversal in the decades-long process of growing integration with our region as exports have declined.

Australian exports to East Asia
NAB Online Retail Sales Index: in depth report – March 2016

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: in depth report – March 2016

28 April 2016

Australian consumers spent an estimated $19.3 billion online in the past year, primarily on homewares, groceries, media and fashion. According to National Australia Bank’s (NAB) latest Online Retail Sales Index in-depth report, online spending increased 12.4% over the last year.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index: in depth report – March 2016
RBA view change: low CPI to see a 25bps cut in May

RBA view change: low CPI to see a 25bps cut in May

27 April 2016

Today’s CPI produced the lowest quarterly and annual rates of core inflation recorded since the RBA commenced inflation targeting - and rates that are starting to diverge below the lower end of the Bank’s target band.

RBA view change: low CPI to see a 25bps cut in May
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2016

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2016

21 April 2016

The March quarter NAB Business Survey shows both a resilient non-mining recovery and an outlook that has continued to improve. Both business conditions and confidence remained at levels similar to that seen in the previous quarter.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – March 2016
How Australian business views the sharing economy

How Australian business views the sharing economy

13 April 2016

The sharing economy is growing at a rapid rate, as new business models based on ‘access to’ rather than ‘ownership of’ physical and human assets like skills, time and space, continue to emerge.

How Australian business views the sharing economy
Housing Market Report – Summer Edition

Housing Market Report – Summer Edition

9 March 2016

The Housing Market Report is your guide to the current home value trends in Australia. You’ll find information about what’s happened over the last 12 months, as well as NAB’s expectations of where prices are headed in the near future.

Housing Market Report – Summer Edition
The World on Two Pages – January 2016

The World on Two Pages – January 2016

27 January 2016

2016 got off to a bad start in global equity and commodity markets and in light of recent financial market turmoil in Australia, the NAB Monthly Business Survey provides a timely indication of how market movements have so far affected business sentiment.

The World on Two Pages – January 2016
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2015

23 December 2015

The NAB Quarterly Australian Behaviour Survey (formerly NAB Consumer Anxiety Report) shows consumer anxiety falling again (and to its lowest level since Q4 2014), amid more signs of improvement in the labour market and non-mining segments of the economy.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Behaviour Survey: Q4 2015
10 Themes for 2016

10 Themes for 2016

22 December 2015

The NAB Group Economics team identify 10 global and domestic themes which will have bearing on the economic and financial market outlook for 2016.

10 Themes for 2016
The World on Two Pages – December 2015

The World on Two Pages – December 2015

9 December 2015

In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.

The World on Two Pages – December 2015
Australian Economic Update – Q3 GDP

Australian Economic Update – Q3 GDP

9 December 2015

Variable economic growth outcomes continued into Q3, with real GDP picking up strongly to 0.9% q/q, following a revised weak 0.3% outcome in Q2 and a strong 0.9% increase in Q1. Year-ended growth picked up moderately to 2.5% y/y, but remained below trend.

Australian Economic Update – Q3 GDP
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015

8 December 2015

In Australia, Q3 GDP figures were consistent with our view that the recovery across the non-mining recovery is broadening, and recent business survey results suggest this momentum continued into Q4.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2015
Monthly Business Survey – November 2015

Monthly Business Survey – November 2015

8 December 2015

Consistently above average business conditions are an encouraging sign that the apparent non-mining sector recovery continues to gain traction, despite relatively muted levels of business confidence.

Monthly Business Survey – November 2015
Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015

Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015

4 December 2015

Commodity markets remain under pressure, reflecting concerns over emerging market demand (especially from China), at a time when the supply of many commodities is on the incline. Anticipated policy tightening by the US Fed is also having an impact.

Minerals & Energy outlook – December 2015
Australia GDP Preview – Q3 2015

Australia GDP Preview – Q3 2015

30 November 2015

Economic partials for Q3 have been mixed, but point to stronger real GDP growth of 0.8% in the quarter (up from 0.2% in Q2), as a series of one-offs that weighed on Q2 growth recede.

Australia GDP Preview – Q3 2015
China’s economy at a glance

China’s economy at a glance

12 November 2015

China’s service sector has been the main contributor to economic growth in recent times – particularly as trends in the industrial sector continue to weaken. In Q3, the services industry (led by finance) maintained fairly stable growth.

China’s economy at a glance
The World on Two Pages – November 2015

The World on Two Pages – November 2015

11 November 2015

Global growth remains sub-trend and there is little sign of an imminent acceleration in the pace of expansion while in Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction.

The World on Two Pages – November 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015

10 November 2015

In Australia, we remain cautiously optimistic that the gradual recovery in the non-mining sector is gaining traction. Recent outcomes from the business survey support this contention with business conditions holding up at a high level in October, and the unemployment rate holding steady.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2015
Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015

Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015

5 November 2015

Based on incoming information, we have modestly reviewed our GDP forecasts to 2.6% in 2015/16 and 3.0% in 2016/17 (annual average). Overall, NAB Economics remain of the view that the recovery in the non-mining sector is slowly becoming more well entrenched.

Flash Australian Forecast Update – 5 November 2015
NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – Q3 2015

5 November 2015

Business conditions among Australia’s ASX 300 firms rose to a new survey high of +20 points (up +12 from +8 points in the previous quarter). The gap between very big and small business is now at its widest margin since this survey began.

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – Q3 2015
NAB Business Survey – AUD Insights

NAB Business Survey – AUD Insights

30 October 2015

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides a rich source of information about Australian business, their behaviours and the environment in which they operate. In addition to questions around sales, profitability, employment and the like, one focus of the Survey revolves around currency markets.

NAB Business Survey – AUD Insights
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – September 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – September 2015

30 October 2015

At 1.1% the latest seasonally adjusted NAB online retail sales index shows sales accelerated in September (possibly iphone 6S related), an improvement on the 0.6% recorded in August, and a rebound on the July contraction (-1.4).

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – September 2015
NAB Quarterly SME Survey – September Quarter 2015

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – September Quarter 2015

29 October 2015

In the quarter, SME business conditions stayed unchanged at +4 index points. Within the components of business conditions, trading conditions were particularly strong, which flowed into modestly better profitability conditions. However, employment conditions remained subdued.

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – September Quarter 2015
NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2015

29 October 2015

Housing market sentiment softens as expectations for future price growth and rents are scaled back in most states. Queensland is the exception, replacing NSW as the most optimistic state for residential property and tipped to lead the country for price and rental growth over the next 1-2 years.

NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey Q3 2015
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – 12 months to August 2015

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – 12 months to August 2015

26 October 2015

Charitable giving in Australia grew in the year to August, with people continuing to give more to charity despite persistent doubt about the economy. Overall giving to charity grew by 4.9 per cent in the 12 months to August 2015. However, this is down from growth of 7.8 per cent the previous year.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – 12 months to August 2015
NAB Quarterly Business Survey – Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – Q3 2015

22 October 2015

Leading indicators were generally more positive in Q3 2015. Forward orders jumped to their highest level since late 2009, while expectations for conditions in 3 and 12 months time both improved.

NAB Quarterly Business Survey – Q3 2015
The World on Two Pages – October 2015

The World on Two Pages – October 2015

14 October 2015

We are still forecasting little to no pick up in the pace of global growth and our domestic forecasts are unchanged this month, with real GDP expected to expand by 2.4% in 2015/16 and 3.1% in 2016/17.

The World on Two Pages – October 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015

13 October 2015

There was a partial recovery in business confidence in September as the Government’s leadership uncertainties were resolved, while financial market volatility and emerging market concerns have moderated from the heights of the previous month – although market concerns remain elevated.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – September 2015
Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights

9 October 2015

Earlier this week, Australia agreed to become part of a historic trade agreement, including countries that account for nearly 36% of global GDP and one quarter of global trade. This document provides a summary of the key measures, reported benefits and what we know so far about contentious issues.

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – August 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – August 2015

1 October 2015

The latest NAB online retail sales index figures show sales grew in August. In dollar terms, its estimated Australians spent $17.5 billion on online retail in the last year. Growth accelerated for electronic games and toys which leads growth, along with media and fashion.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – August 2015
United States Economic Update – 11 September 2015

United States Economic Update – 11 September 2015

11 September 2015

The Fed is still likely to start lifting rates this year, but we now expect this to be in December rather than September. The US economy is expected to continue growing at an above trend rate. We now expect growth in both 2015 & 2016 to be 2.5%.

United States Economic Update – 11 September 2015
State Economic Handbook: Shifting sands

State Economic Handbook: Shifting sands

11 September 2015

Economic activity is shifting back to the eastern seaboard as the economy transitions towards non-mining sources of growth with domestic demand will be strongest in New South Wales and Victoria.

State Economic Handbook: Shifting sands
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015

9 September 2015

The pace of growth in the big advanced economies has picked up, mainly reflecting a US recovery from weak first quarter growth. In contrast, Japan and the Euro-zone are not growing strongly and Canada is in recession.

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2015
The World on Two Pages – September 2015

The World on Two Pages – September 2015

9 September 2015

There is increasing evidence that growth momentum is broadening across the the non-mining Australian economy – not limited to the dwelling sector – in response to the lower AUD and interest rates, with improvement particularly evident in services sectors.

The World on Two Pages – September 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015

8 September 2015

Business conditions point to a further improvement in the non-mining economy, even as jitters in financial markets weigh on confidence. The conditions index jumped 5 points to +11 in August lifting the trend index to its highest level since late 2009.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – August 2015
Australian Economic Update: GDP Q2, 2015

Australian Economic Update: GDP Q2, 2015

2 September 2015

Variability in Australia’s growth outcomes by quarter indicates an economy undergoing significant structural change as it attempts to transition away from mining-investment led growth.

Australian Economic Update: GDP Q2, 2015
NAB Online Retail Sales Index – July 2015

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – July 2015

2 September 2015

We estimate Australians spent $17.4 billion on online retail in the 12 months to July 2015 which level is equivalent to 7.1% of spending at traditional bricks & mortar retailers excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index – July 2015
The World on Two Pages – August 2015

The World on Two Pages – August 2015

13 August 2015

Our forecasts for global growth to stay around the 3¼% yoy and locally, our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month – 2.4% in 2014/15, 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.

The World on Two Pages – August 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015

11 August 2015

Global growth is running below trend limiting the pace of expansion in commodity demand. Output has been growing faster recently in some of the big advanced economies (notably the US and UK) and the Greek crisis has had little impact on activity across the rest of the Euro-zone.

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015

11 August 2015

The business confidence index remains positive, both trading conditions and profitability remain relatively elevated and the trend has held up around average levels. Our GDP forecasts are marginally stronger than last month, with growth of 2.8% in 2015/16 and 3.2% in 2016/17.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2015
NAB Quarterly SME Survey – June Quarter 2015

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – June Quarter 2015

30 July 2015

In the June quarter, SME quarterly business conditions and confidence rose rising by 2 points to +4 and +5 index points respectively. SME business conditions were superior in property, finance, business services, wholesale, manufacturing and transport sectors.

NAB Quarterly SME Survey – June Quarter 2015
Quarterly Business Survey – June 20

Quarterly Business Survey – June 20

23 July 2015

The June quarter NAB Business Survey confirms the trend of gradually improving near-term indicators, but with a somewhat patchy longer term outlook. Business confidence strengthened in Q2 to +4 index points (from 0 points), which is its highest level since Q3 2014…

Quarterly Business Survey – June 20
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index: Q2 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index: Q2 2015

17 July 2015

Family relationships and safe communities critical to Aussies’ wellbeing. In an effort to better understand why Australians feel the way they do, NAB has been tracking Australia’s wellbeing (as measured by anxiety, life-satisfaction, happiness, and life-worth) since early-2013.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index: Q2 2015
The World on Two pages – July 2015

The World on Two pages – July 2015

15 July 2015

We have not changed our forecast for global growth this year (3.2%), but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, but a softer outlook for Japan & India prompted a slight downward revision for 2016 and 2017. And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.

The World on Two pages – July 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015

14 July 2015

Financial market volatility and the downside risks to global growth have been driven by the Chinese share market correction and the issues in Greece. Locally, lower interest rates and the AUD, strong housing prices and a post Budget kick in confidence appears to have driven better business outcomes.

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015

14 July 2015

Business confidence lifted again in the month of June – the highest level since September 2013. Confidence is now positive in all industries except mining and business conditions improved even more, in June – the highest level since last October.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015

2 July 2015

There were no signs of global growth accelerating in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and commodity prices have been mixed, partly in response to USD movements.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2015
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2015

25 June 2015

Consumer anxiety rose despite falling concerns over government policy post the federal budget. More consumers are paying off debt and spending more on “essentials” however, fewer consumers cut back their spending on “non-essentials”.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q2 2015
The World on two pages – June 2015

The World on two pages – June 2015

10 June 2015

NAB forecast on the Global economy is for more of the same this year with global growth staying around 3¼% in 2015, followed by a modest upturn in 2016 (largely driven by the US). And in Australia, we see the RBA keeping interest rates on hold, with the next move to up – but not till late 2016.

The World on two pages – June 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015

9 June 2015

There was no evidence of an acceleration in the pace of global growth in early 2015. Weak GDP results in the US, UK and Canada outweighed a pick-up in Japan and the Euro-zone and similarly mixed trends among the big emerging economies saw China slowing, India picking up and Brazil still very weak.

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015

9 June 2015

The recent Federal Budget and interest rate cut appears to have had a positive impact on business confidence – which moved up significantly in May - from +3 to +7 index points. This is the highest level of confidence since August 2014 and has helped to turn the trend more positive.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – May 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015

11 May 2015

Business confidence was unchanged in April. Until confidence lifts significantly it is difficult to see a sustained economic recovery developing – to date rate cuts have not appeared to do much and it will be interesting to see what this week’s Federal Budget will do.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – April 2015
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

7 May 2015

ASX 300 business confidence fell further in Q1 2015 to remain well below the general economy. Sentiment is particularly weak among very large construction firms. Business conditions while still positive also fell, with trading, profitability and employment all lower.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015
US Economic Update – 30 April 2015

US Economic Update – 30 April 2015

30 April 2015

U.S. GDP growth slowed to a crawl in the March quarter. Details were weak, with the major support for growth coming from inventories. We expect the slowdown will be temporary and above trend growth to resume.

US Economic Update – 30 April 2015
Quarterly SME Survey – March Quarter 2015

Quarterly SME Survey – March Quarter 2015

30 April 2015

SMEs’ quarterly business conditions remained largely stable in the first quarter of 2015, with firms from all tiers showing broadly similar conditions from the previous quarter. SME trading and profitability conditions have deteriorated, offset by improved employment conditions overall.

Quarterly SME Survey – March Quarter 2015
Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015

23 April 2015

Business confidence dropped back again in the first quarter of 2015, falling even further below the long run average level. This is consistent with a pull back in confidence in the February monthly survey, although this was completely unwound in March.

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2015
The World on two pages – April 2015

The World on two pages – April 2015

15 April 2015

Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. We have fine tuned but not fundamentally changed our forecasts– 2014/15 2.3% and 3.0% in 2015/16. The non mining sector is still struggling to offset the impact on domestic demand.

The World on two pages – April 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015

14 April 2015

Global growth remains stuck at a sub-trend pace. After 3.3% in 2014 we now expect only 3.4% in 2015. While the Euro-zone and Japan are experiencing upturns, recent US data has disappointed. We have delayed the Fed starting till September (or later) and reduced US GDP in 2015 to 2.7%.

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2015
NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015

NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015

14 April 2015

There were some tentative signs of improvement in the NAB Monthly Business Survey for March – with the post RBA cut fall in confidence reversed in March. Surprisingly, the lift was particularly pronounced in mining, although confidence is still lowest for this industry.

NAB Monthly Business Survey – March 2015
Australian States Handbook – April 2015

Australian States Handbook – April 2015

1 April 2015

The divergence between mining and non-mining state economies continues, although with mining investment now winding down it is the major non-mining economies that are starting to outperform. Budget positions improving but focus remains on reducing expenditure.

Australian States Handbook – April 2015
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q1 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q1 2015

1 April 2015

Consumer anxiety rises again in Q1’15 after a short-lived improvement in the previous quarter, as concern over government policy overtakes cost of living as the single biggest cause of consumer stress. With overall anxiety increasing, consumers are cutting back on many “non-essentials”.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q1 2015
The World on two pages – March 2015

The World on two pages – March 2015

11 March 2015

Global growth remains around 3%. Weaker prices for oil and other commodities will benefit spending power in most big advanced economies as well as in China. The domestic economy, in early 2015, has not gained momentum with another rate cut expected in the coming months.

The World on two pages – March 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015

10 March 2015

Global growth remains around 3% and, although the business surveys show a lift in sentiment in key advanced economies, there is still no clear evidence that the expected upturn in global growth to 3½% by the end of the year has commenced. Locally, we have not changed near term forecasts

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2015
Monthly Business Survey – February 2015

Monthly Business Survey – February 2015

10 March 2015

The RBA’s 25bp cut to interest rates in February did not appear to have the desired effect on firms ‘animal spirits’, with confidence actually deteriorating in the month. The index is now at its lowest level since before the Federal election in 2013 and is well below the long run average.

Monthly Business Survey – February 2015
Quarterly SME Survey – December Quarter 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – December Quarter 2014

19 February 2015

After reaching the highest levels since 2009 in the September quarter, SMEs’ quarterly business conditions fell in the December quarter for the first time since Q4 2013. Firms from all tiers: low/micro, mid and high, showed consistent declines in their overall business conditions.

Quarterly SME Survey – December Quarter 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015

13 February 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. This has been reflected in lower prices for a number of industrial commodities. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – February 2015
Monthly Business Survey – January 2015

Monthly Business Survey – January 2015

10 February 2015

The latest survey shows that business confidence edged up a little, but it's still below long run averages. Confidence remains very weak in mining, consistent with lower commodity prices, but multi-year lows for the AUD likely contributed to a considerable improvement from last month.

Monthly Business Survey – January 2015
Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014

4 February 2015

Business confidence eased back in Q4, dropping below the long run average level. Sentiment and business conditions are generally consistent with a ‘patchwork’ economy. Outside of construction and services, conditions remain soft in all other industries.

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2014
Biggest Issues Facing Australia Today: Special Report

Biggest Issues Facing Australia Today: Special Report

29 January 2015

NAB has released its first annual pulse check on the big issues facing Australia today. Important concerns include cost of living, access to healthcare, employment, the economy and terrorism/security concerns, while indigenous issues, infrastructure and transport and taxation are lowest.

Biggest Issues Facing Australia Today: Special Report
NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q4 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q4 2014

29 January 2015

The NAB Australian Wellbeing Index fell slightly to 63 points in Q4 2014 (63.8 in Q3). Wellbeing was rated lower for all questions, especially “not anxious yesterday” which fell to its lowest level since the survey started. Wellbeing rated highest in Queensland and lowest in Victoria.

NAB Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index – Q4 2014
The World on two pages – January 2015

The World on two pages – January 2015

28 January 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions (expansion in US, UK, India and China, weakness in Euro-zone, Japan, Latin America). Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries.

The World on two pages – January 2015
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015

27 January 2015

Moderate sub-trend global growth continues with a diversity of economic conditions. Falling oil prices should boost global activity, although the impact varies between oil exporting and importing countries. Unemployment to continue to deteriorate but peak lower (6.6%) and later (Q4 2015).

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2015
Monthly Business Survey – December 2014

Monthly Business Survey – December 2014

27 January 2015

The survey again shows a patchwork economy with little-to-no momentum building. In December, conditions eased for the second successive month after October’s surprisingly strong result so they're now a touch below the long run average.

Monthly Business Survey – December 2014
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2014

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2014

5 January 2015

The Index fell for the second straight quarter, with lower levels of concern reported across all categories. According to NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster, the cost of living and government policy continue to be the single biggest causes of anxiety for Australians.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q4 2014
The World on two pages – December 2014

The World on two pages – December 2014

10 December 2014

Global growth remained around 3% yoy in Q3, sightly below trend but it is expected to pick-up to 3½% in 2015 and 2016. Major differences in the strength of economic activity persist between regions with the US, India and China accounting for almost 2 ppts of forecast global growth.

The World on two pages – December 2014
Monthly Business Survey – November 2014

Monthly Business Survey – November 2014

9 December 2014

Last months spike in business conditions was again short-lived, pulling back towards long run average levels in November. Despite the drop, the overall trend is still looking much better than 12-18 months prior, while levels of capacity utilisation have continued to improve.

Monthly Business Survey – November 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014

9 December 2014

Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies underpin faster growth of 3½% in 2015 and 2016.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2014
China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights

20 November 2014

The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) offers considerable potential for Australian agricultural and services firms as a result of their improved market access. Dairy, meat and horticulture stand to gain significantly while most resource exports will end up having duty free access.

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Highlights
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014

14 November 2014

Divergent economic conditions around the world are having a net negative impact on commodity prices. Chinese GDP growth slowed to its lowest pace since early 2009, while parts of the economy that are key to industrial commodities remain comparatively weak.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2014
The World on two pages – November 2014

The World on two pages – November 2014

12 November 2014

Global growth remains moderate and sub-trend with big variations between key economies. China and North America represent around one-third of global GDP but they currently account for around half of global growth.

The World on two pages – November 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014

11 November 2014

Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth along with big variations between the major economies. Low interest rates, falling oil prices and smaller budget cutbacks in big advanced economies should underpin.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2014
Monthly Business Survey – October 2014

Monthly Business Survey – October 2014

11 November 2014

Clearly the most surprising feature of the Survey was the sharp jump in business conditions in October (the largest monthly increase in the history of the survey). The improvement driven by sales and profits was relatively broad based –unlike the (short-lived) jump in July.

Monthly Business Survey – October 2014
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014

7 November 2014

Australians are giving more to charity than ever before, with the average annual donation size for all charities increasing by 3.6 per cent ($11) to $315 per donor. Overall charitable giving growth also continues an upward trend, increasing by 6.4 per cent in the 12 months to August 2014.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2014
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2014

30 October 2014

SME business confidence eased slightly, continuing the trend decline from the peaks seen around last year’s Federal election. While this result is consistent with the ongoing sluggishness of demand in the domestic economy (excluding exports)…

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014

27 October 2014

Business confidence was unchanged in Q3, remaining close to the long run average levels. However, our monthly survey shows that the momentum has turned, with confidence easing steadily over the quarter.

Quarterly Business Survey – September 2014
The World on two pages – October 2014

The World on two pages – October 2014

15 October 2014

Global growth was around 3% in the first half of 2014, below trend and with marked variations in performance between major economies. North America continues to perform strongly with solid growth in both the US and Canada.

The World on two pages – October 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014

14 October 2014

Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with GDP expanding by a sub-trend 3% yoy and concern over weakness in Japan and the Euro-zone offsetting solid growth in the US and UK. Chinese forecasts unchanged.

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2014
Monthly Business Survey – September 2014

Monthly Business Survey – September 2014

14 October 2014

Business confidence lost ground in September –lowest level since pre election - in the face of a persistently soft operating environment for many firms. Forward orders remained soft, prompting de-stocking and competitive pricing which appears to have weighed on profitability.

Monthly Business Survey – September 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014

9 October 2014

Recent global economic data and less favourable supply fundamentals have put downward pressure on many commodity prices. China, Europe and Japan were softer, while the U.S recovery appears to be gaining traction (US GDP grew at its fastest pace since 2011)…

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2014
Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)

Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)

29 September 2014

“The index shows that Australia’s engagement with Asia is dominated by product imports and not surprisingly, our engagement is clearly strongest with China across all sizes of business. But, it is higher for SMEs than the ASX 300” said Alan Oster.

Australia – Asia Business Engagement Index (Q2)
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014

16 September 2014

Global economic data sent divergent signals to commodity markets in August. China’s outlook gave less comfort in comparison to the better US data. There was more movement in financial markets during the month. Meanwhile further sanctions on Russia were put on hold.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2014
The World on two pages – September 2014

The World on two pages – September 2014

11 September 2014

Weakness in Japan, stagnation in the Euro-zone and a hard landing in Latin America have resulted in a slowdown in the pace of global growth through the first half of 2014. World GDP growth reached 3.4% yoy in late 2013, it slowed to 3.1% yoy in March qtr 2014 and 2.9% yoy in June qtr.

The World on two pages – September 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014

9 September 2014

Disappointing global growth continued into mid-2014 with stagnation in the Euro-zone sparking deflationary concern and ECB action while Japanese demand is still struggling to recover from April’s tax rise.

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2014
Monthly Business Survey – August 2014

Monthly Business Survey – August 2014

9 September 2014

Business confidence remains resilient despite easing a little in August, supported by positive forward orders, subdued cost pressures and more stable consumer confidence. Positive business conditions are also helping despite falling back in the month.

Monthly Business Survey – August 2014
Euro-zone update

Euro-zone update

9 September 2014

The European Central Bank has cut its key policy lending rate to only 5 bps, it's progressing its planned schemes for asset purchases and targeted lending to banks and has hinted that it could increase its balance sheet by around €1 Trillion, taking it back to its early 2012 size.

Euro-zone update
Australian Business Diversity Index – Q2 2014

Australian Business Diversity Index – Q2 2014

29 August 2014

The inaugural NAB Australian Business Diversity Index is a new addition to NAB’s Quarterly Business Survey, and it aims to help Australian industries and businesses better understand diversity performance, in an effort to drive change.

Australian Business Diversity Index – Q2 2014
Australian States Handbook 2014

Australian States Handbook 2014

22 August 2014

Australia’s Federal system of Government makes State Governments a critical part of the overall fiscal and economic performance of Australia. This handbook is intended to provide a comprehensive update and reference tool on both the economies and fiscal finances for each State.

Australian States Handbook 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014

13 August 2014

Weak retail trade and net exports point to soft GDP growth in Q2. Headwinds remain, but business conditions jumped to four year high, while, business confidence, orders and capacity utilisation all looking better. We have trimmed our global forecasts.

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014

12 August 2014

Global growth remains moderate but monthly trade and industrial growth continues to slow. Economic conditions mixed between regions with solid upturns in the UK and US, weakness in Japan and signs of slowing in the Euro-zone. Emerging market economies still driving most global growth

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2014
NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014

12 August 2014

Business confidence again surprised on the upside, supported by better business conditions (largely reflecting sales and profits) and a surge in retailer confidence. Firms still unfazed about the Budget (for now). Conditions jumped to a four year high

NAB Monthly Business Survey – July 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014

11 August 2014

Commodity prices remained divergent in July, reflecting broadly positive but somewhat mixed economic data as well as flaring geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Crude prices fell in early July as concerns about a disruption to Iraqi oil supplies dissipated.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – July 2014
Quarterly SME Survey – June 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2014

24 July 2014

SME business confidence eased again in the June quarter, but is holding up against heightened consumer anxiety with the support of positive sentiment in property and construction. Conditions rose slightly, but are still at levels suggesting sub-trend growth.

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014

17 July 2014

Business confidence eased a touch, but remains at relatively resilient levels post-budget. Business conditions improved marginally as underperforming industries improve. Forward indicators point to further modest improvement over coming months.

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014

10 July 2014

After rising through 2013, the main business surveys have gone sideways in 2014 and the pace of global growth has slipped slightly. We have lowered our global GDP forecasts for 2014 from 3.4% to 3.2%.

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014

8 July 2014

Moderate global growth continues after early 2014’s slowing, resulting in slightly lower growth forecasts in 2014 but nearer trend in out years. Mixed picture among advanced economies as US & Euro-zone growth disappoints expectations but UK expansion stays solid...

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2014
Monthly Business Survey – June 2014

Monthly Business Survey – June 2014

8 July 2014

Business confidence recorded an unexpected increase in the month, with firms apparently shrugging off the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence that followed May’s Federal budget. Firms are sticking to their expectation for stronger activity despite business conditions remaining

Monthly Business Survey – June 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014

7 July 2014

The relative price stability that characterised oil, in particular Brent, in the first half of 2014 has been shaken of late by unexpectedly severe sectarian turmoil in Iraq. However, with Iraqi exports largely unaffected, prices have now eased somewhat.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014

12 June 2014

Bulk commodity markets recorded another relatively weak month –with iron ore prices continuing to ease (falling below US$100 a tonne), thermal coal prices remaining weak, while metallurgical coal eased higher –away from particularly low levels.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – May 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014

12 June 2014

The generally upward trend in advanced economy purchasing manager surveys began to fade through late 2013 and 2014 and that has been followed by a levelling out in the rate of growth in world trade and industrial output.

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014

10 June 2014

Global growth levelled off through late 2013 and early 2014, partly due to bad weather hitting North America. Advanced economy upturn looks set to continue as interest rates stay low and as the peak in fiscal consolidation has passed

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2014
Monthly Business Survey – May 2014

Monthly Business Survey – May 2014

10 June 2014

Business confidence survived the government’s ‘tough budget’ intact, but business conditions eased again (reflecting sales). Employment and profits were steady at soft levels. Conditions are mixed across industries, but are generally negative outside of services

Monthly Business Survey – May 2014
Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014

Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014

14 May 2014

Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey handed down the 2014 Federal Budget last night and there’s plenty to talk about. Our team of economists have analysed what it means for you, your business and a variety of key industries with our summary fact sheets.

Fact sheets – Federal Budget 2014
What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure

What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure

14 May 2014

The infrastructure sector was one of the big winners in the Federal Budget, with the share of infrastructure spending rising in both dollar terms and as a share of government spending. This should go some way in helping to fill the void left by retreating mining investment.

What the Federal Budget means for infrastructure
What the Federal Budget means for the health sector

What the Federal Budget means for the health sector

14 May 2014

The key focus related to health in this year’s Budget is savings. The introduction of GP co-payments, changes to PBS provisions, Medicare safety nets and indexation arrangements will contribute significant savings. We assess the key initiatives impacting Australia’s health sector.

What the Federal Budget means for the health sector
What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness

What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness

14 May 2014

Our leading team of economists have broken-down how the 2014 Federal Budget impacts Australian agribusinesses. As well as analysis, we outline the key initiatives and how the industry is responding.

What the Federal Budget means for Agribusiness
Monthly Business Survey – April 2014

Monthly Business Survey – April 2014

12 May 2014

Business conditions more subdued in April but confidence up marginally – shrugging off ‘tough budget’ rhetoric. Sales eased slightly, employment slightly better but still soft, profits weaker. Conditions remain volatile and mixed across industries…

Monthly Business Survey – April 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

12 May 2014

Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014

7 May 2014

Economic data confirmed slower global growth in Q1, but more timely indicators are looking a little more promising. Japan is a major exception where a recent consumption tax hike is having a distortionary effect. US tapered QE again, but market implications appeared relatively muted.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2014
Quarterly SME Survey – March 2014

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2014

28 April 2014

SME business confidence eased for the first time in over a year – consistent with persistently soft conditions and trends seen by larger firms. Nevertheless, business activity has improved with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2010 – although still sub-trend.

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014

17 April 2014

Business confidence eased from its recent high but remained elevated in the March quarter. Business conditions were soft, but are now much better than 6-months earlier. Forward indicators point to further modest improvements over coming months.

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014

9 April 2014

The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Some of this reflected the disruptive impact of bad weather on supply chains but the March business survey results suggest a levelling out in the pace of growth

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2014
Monthly Business Survey – March 2014

Monthly Business Survey – March 2014

8 April 2014

Business conditions lifted slightly in March, but remained at relatively subdued levels, weighing on business optimism. Confidence still positive but softened to its lowest post-election level to be below long-run trend.

Monthly Business Survey – March 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014

8 April 2014

Global economy growing around trend but signs in early 2014 that accelerating growth phase has ended. Mixed conditions across regions with advanced economies providing more of global output expansion as Chinese growth rate trends down.

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2014
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014

3 April 2014

Economic data was mixed over the past month, but the impact from severe weather on advanced economies appears to be abating. Partial indicators suggest China’s economy has continued to slow. US tapered QE again and markets remain volatile as they try to discern Fed direction.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2014
Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014

13 March 2014

The upward trend in the advanced economy business surveys faltered toward the end of 2013 and this has continued into early 2014. Nevertheless, this softer note probably reflects bad weather disrupting supply chains.

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2014
Monthly Business Survey – February 2014

Monthly Business Survey – February 2014

11 March 2014

Recent recovery short lived? Business conditions back-pedalled sharply in February reversing around half post election gains. Confidence softened but still remains marginally above trend. Sales and employment fell markedly during the month, with the latter pointing to very weak labour

Monthly Business Survey – February 2014
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014

11 March 2014

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2014
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013

3 March 2014

The Manufacturing Activity Index continued with its slow improvement in Q4, supported by strong business confidence and falling labour costs. The index implies activity in the manufacturing industry expanded by 0.5% in Q4.

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q4, 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – December 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2013

17 February 2014

SME business confidence up for a fourth quarter – consistent with increases seen by larger firms. Confidence is finally gaining traction to support business activity, with conditions rising to their highest since mid-2011 – but remain soft.

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2013
Motor vehicle headwinds – February 2014

Motor vehicle headwinds – February 2014

14 February 2014

Toyota has announced it would terminate automotive manufacturing operations in Australia by the end of 2017. Ford and General Motors (Holden) previously announced they would close their operations in 2016. The strength of the AUD has weighed heavily on an already struggling industry

Motor vehicle headwinds – February 2014
Monthly Business Survey – January 2014

Monthly Business Survey – January 2014

11 February 2014

Business conditions maintained last months momentum and is approaching 3 year highs while confidence was up for the first time in 4 months – both near or above trend levels. Employment index much better, but still suggests soft labour market conditions.

Monthly Business Survey – January 2014
Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013

6 February 2014

Business confidence in the December quarter was at its highest in more than 2½ years. Business conditions lifted to their highest level in more than 12 months suggesting activity is starting to catch up - albeit still below trend.

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014

29 January 2014

Business surveys and partial data on trade and industrial output show moderate global economic growth continuing through to the end of 2013. There are mixed trends across Emerging markets, with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2014
Monthly Business Survey – December 2013

Monthly Business Survey – December 2013

28 January 2014

Are we at a turning point? Business conditions jump to more than 2½ year high, while confidence broadly unchanged – both now near trend levels. Sales and profits up sharply – especially in wholesale, transport and services – reducing excess capacity slightly.

Monthly Business Survey – December 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014

28 January 2014

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/9 recession. Mixed trends across Emerging markets with gradual slowing in China and uncertainty over speed of Indian rebound.

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2014
CPI preview – December quarter 2013

CPI preview – December quarter 2013

22 January 2014

We expect Q4 underlying inflation to print at 0.6% (2.3% through the year) on Wednesday. This would be the fifth successive outcome in the bottom half of the RBA target range. Subdued wages growth and weak domestic demand continue to keep core inflation well under control.

CPI preview – December quarter 2013
Pedal to the metal

Pedal to the metal

15 January 2014

The limp performance of metals and bulk commodities over the past couple of years has resembled a unicycle rather than the superbike of previous years. According to Simon Wright of The Economist, the 2014 outlook for demand is rosier and commodity prices should start climbing once again.

Pedal to the metal
Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013

Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013

9 January 2014

Global upturn continues with advanced economies seeing faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.

Commodities Update: Minerals and Energy – December 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013

12 December 2013

September industrial output and broader measures of quarterly GDP are finally showing economic growth starting to lift in line with both the business surveys and our forecast for a global upturn in 2014 (growth at 3½% unchanged).

Australia & the World on two pages – December 2013
Monthly Business Survey – November 2013

Monthly Business Survey – November 2013

10 December 2013

Business conditions and confidence broadly unchanged - with confidence still much higher than conditions. While still weak, business conditions appear to be trending higher. Trading conditions up - especially mining and manufacturing - with capacity utilisation off its recent lows.

Monthly Business Survey – November 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013

10 December 2013

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies see faster recovery after prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Chinese and Indian economies faring better with no slowing in former and activity picking-up in the latter.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013

9 December 2013

November’s Third Plenum unveiled a wide ranging reform agenda from China’s Government. Proposed deregulation would increase free market influence and could support a stronger medium term growth profile for the economy.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – November 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013

13 November 2013

Global growth rose from 2.4% to 2.8% between March and June quarters and we are expecting 2.9% for 2013 overall, increasing to 3.5% next year. The national accounts and business surveys show a quickening pace of growth in the big advanced economies with the UK and Japan the standout.

Australia & the World on two pages – November 2013
Monthly Business Survey – October 2013

Monthly Business Survey – October 2013

12 November 2013

Firms reassess their confidence on the outlook as business conditions undershoot again. Capacity utilisation falls sharply - especially in manufacturing, construction, mining and retail - despite low interest rates and improved housing and equity markets.

Monthly Business Survey – October 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013

12 November 2013

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed. Advanced economies seeing faster recovery after their prolonged weakness post 2008/09 recession. Mixed trends across emerging markets with solid Chinese growth but disappointing outcomes in India.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013

8 November 2013

In October, indicators of global economic activity were mixed, casting some doubt over signs of recovery in the advanced economies. The upturn is still under way, but the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – October 2013
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013

1 November 2013

Donations grew 2.5% (12-month average) in August with an average annual donation of $312 per donor. Giving grew fastest for “Other” (12.8%) and Health & Disability (9.1%) charities, but fell for Humanitarian Services (-3.2%) and Medical Research & Services (-2.4%) charities.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – August 2013
Gold Market Update – October 2013

Gold Market Update – October 2013

1 November 2013

The average price of gold eased by around 2½% in October, though the daily spot price generally strengthened over the second half of the month and is currently trading at around $1,340 per ounce. Gold is set to record its first annual price decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – October 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2013

24 October 2013

SME business confidence broadly unchanged – with no sign of the political kick in confidence seen elsewhere in business. That may in part reflect a significant fall in business conditions in the quarter. SME performance in poor sectors of the economy were similar to larger firms.

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – September

Quarterly Business Survey – September

17 October 2013

Businesses become more confident in the September quarter. This fundamentally appears to be driven by political factors – albeit the lower AUD and rates, together with stronger asset markets would have helped.

Quarterly Business Survey – September
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013

16 October 2013

In September, overall demand for commodities gained support from progress in the global economic recovery. Positive data from major economies is adding to confidence that the recovery in the big advanced economies is currently on track.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – September 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013

10 October 2013

After a period where the data showed accelerating growth in the big advanced economies, the latest numbers have been more mixed. Although an upturn is still under way, the pace of industrial growth and business sentiment in some big advanced economies has stopped improving.

Australia & the World on two pages – October 2013
Monthly Business Survey – September 2013

Monthly Business Survey – September 2013

8 October 2013

Animal spirits lift again. Confidence surges to its highest level in 3½ years. Business conditions, however, still subdued - with employment poor. Signs of better conditions in finance/ business/ property and construction.

Monthly Business Survey – September 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013

8 October 2013

Global upturn continues and forecasts little changed - but growth momentum has slowed a touch through mid-2013. Composition of global growth still shifting toward advanced economies with mixed trends in emerging markets.

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2013
State Economic Update – September 2013

State Economic Update – September 2013

16 September 2013

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey showed a marginal deterioration in overall business conditions in the June quarter, with the level remaining close to four year lows. All states experienced difficult conditions in the quarter.

State Economic Update – September 2013
Monthly Business Survey – August 2013

Monthly Business Survey – August 2013

10 September 2013

Confidence rises everywhere and surges in mining, construction and finance/ business/ property. This appears to reflect expectations of political change & more certainty about future political frameworks. Against that, business conditions and capacity utilisation remained poor.

Monthly Business Survey – August 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013

10 September 2013

Recent data show a promising lift in business sentiment in big advanced economies but financial volatility hitting emerging market growth prospects (India, ASEAN, and Brazil). Little change in headline global growth forecast with advanced economy upturn set to drive faster world economy

Global & Australian Forecasts – September 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013

4 September 2013

More positive news on the major economies has provided a slight boost to most commodity prices in August, with the long awaited rotation of global growth towards the big advanced economies seemingly underway. Global manufacturing activity also appears to have gained momentum.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – August 2013
Gold Market Update – August 2013

Gold Market Update – August 2013

27 August 2013

The price of gold fell by a notable 4.3% in July, but has stabilised more recently, recovering by a modest 2.8% over August to date. Spot gold is currently around $1,380 an ounce. The price of gold will certainly record its first annual decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – August 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013

14 August 2013

Central bank statements reinforcing their guidance that interest rates should stay low for a long time yet across the big advanced economies, have supported financial markets. Recent business surveys and industrial data point to an upturn in growth in these advanced economies

Australia & the World on two pages – August 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013

13 August 2013

Global growth unchanged as modest country forecast revisions cancel each other out. We see moderate acceleration in global growth to around trend in 2014. Recent data show promising signs in big advanced economies while conditions still softening in emerging market economies.

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2013
Monthly Business Survey – July 2013

Monthly Business Survey – July 2013

13 August 2013

Business conditions remain at 4 year lows while confidence slumps to 8 month low - despite a falling AUD and lower interest rates. Conditions very poor in manufacturing, construction, mining, retail and wholesale; WA now the weakest state.

Monthly Business Survey – July 2013
Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013

Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013

5 August 2013

The government’s economic forecasts now recognise the softness of the domestic economy and the weaker outlook for commodity prices and incomes. In the near term the Budget now looks to be slightly adding to growth (rather than detracting as at Budget time).

Government Downgrades Outlook: tightens policy – 2 August 2013
NAB changes rates call: Two cuts by year end

NAB changes rates call: Two cuts by year end

31 July 2013

We had already been forecasting a 25bps rate cut in August to 2½% and with the Governor giving the green light for lower interest rates this now looks a sure thing. We now also expect an additional 25bps cut to 2.25% before year end – most likely in November after the Q3 CPI.

NAB changes rates call: Two cuts by year end
Quarterly SME Survey – June 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2013

24 July 2013

SME confidence & conditions improve significantly with activity of smaller firms outperforming larger firms for the first time in almost four years. SME conditions strengthened across most industries.

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2013
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

22 July 2013

Stronger conditions for ASX 300 in Q2 - widening the gap to the economy - but confidence fell sharply. Mining conditions fell, now the weakest among ASX 300 firms. Discounting among ASX 300 may be evident. Stocks & orders point to weakness in domestic economy.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013

18 July 2013

Business conditions struggle in the June quarter and confidence falls back, driven by a pessimistic mining sector. Falling equities and offshore concerns likely to be weighing on sentiment. Little sign yet that lower interest rates and AUD are helping.

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013

10 July 2013

Equity and currency market volatility reflects uncertainties over the pace at which the Fed might alter US monetary policy, Chinese authorities might clamp down on shadow banking and the potential impact of the Bank of Japan’s move to greater monetary easing.

Australia & the World on two pages – July 2013
Monthly Business Survey – June 2013

Monthly Business Survey – June 2013

9 July 2013

Business conditions and capacity utilisation slump to a four year low. Confidence a little better but still below trend. Conditions very bad in retail, mining and manufacturing, despite low interest rates and falling AUD, though signs a little better for exports.

Monthly Business Survey – June 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013

9 July 2013

Global growth forecasts unchanged. A few signs that activity is picking up in some advanced economies but India and Brazil still soft and growing concerns over pace of Chinese growth. Markets focussed on central bank policy driving greater volatility in equities and currencies.

Global & Australian Forecasts – July 2013
Global FX Strategist – July 2013

Global FX Strategist – July 2013

8 July 2013

The asymmetric (downside) risks we alluded to in our previous AUD forecast update have eventuated and we have now made further downward revisions. The Fed's return to the (early stages) of policy normalcy in itself justifies an AUD/USD in the low 0.80s.

Global FX Strategist – July 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013

4 July 2013

Overall, the heightened volatility in global financial markets associated with central bank decisions in the US and China has weighed on commodity prices. The slowdown in the Chinese economy is also gaining traction in markets and further weakens demand prospects.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – June 2013
Gold Market Update – June 2013

Gold Market Update – June 2013

2 July 2013

Expectations for the US Federal Reserve to begin tapering its $85 billion in monthly debt buying this year, a rising US dollar and a slowing Chinese economy have sent ripples through the gold market. The price of gold is now heading for its first annual decline since 2000.

Gold Market Update – June 2013
India Economic Update – March quarter 2013

India Economic Update – March quarter 2013

2 July 2013

In the final quarter of 2012-13, the Indian economy grew by 4.8%. This was broadly similar to the upwardly revised third quarter estimate of 4.7%. Somewhat softer growth in the last 2 quarters of the current fiscal year has pushed overall growth in 2012/2013 to 5%, the lowest in a decade.

India Economic Update – March quarter 2013
India Monetary Policy Review – June 2013

India Monetary Policy Review – June 2013

2 July 2013

In its mid quarter Monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India held its benchmark Repo rate at 7.25% and the Reverse Repo rate at 6.25%. The RBI expressed concern at the sudden, steep depreciation in the Rupee amid a high current account deficit.

India Monetary Policy Review – June 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013

13 June 2013

The consensus view is that the pace of global growth should accelerate through the course of 2013 as recessions end in Western Europe, Abenomics lifts Japanese growth, the US continues its moderate expansion and solid growth continues in the big emerging economies.

Australia & the World on two pages – June 2013
Monthly Business Survey – May 2013

Monthly Business Survey – May 2013

11 June 2013

Business conditions remain at low levels (marginally higher) with unchanged mediocre confidence levels. Conditions better in wholesale, manufacturing and construction, but mining worsens. Any confidence gained from falling dollar and May rate cut have been undermined by domestic weakness

Monthly Business Survey – May 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013

11 June 2013

Global growth forecasts little changed. Still waiting to see firm evidence that the expected acceleration in activity through 2013 is beginning. Australian economy now at a watershed as mining investment slows and domestic economy struggles.

Global & Australian Forecasts – June 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013

4 June 2013

Commodity markets have been mixed but overall sentiment remains bearish reflecting soft economic data in most regions. However, signs of improvement in the US economy could help to support commodity demand, but the effect on market expectations for Fed stimulus will create headwinds.

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – April 2013
Monthly Business Survey – April 2013

Monthly Business Survey – April 2013

13 May 2013

Business conditions remain very difficult and confidence stumbles after showing signs of recovery earlier this year. Despite less negativity in retail & manufacturing, activity still very poor and labour market showing new signs of weakness.

Monthly Business Survey – April 2013
Gold Market Update – April 2013

Gold Market Update – April 2013

6 May 2013

The gold price fell by 6.6% over April. Recent gold demand appears to have fallen sharply on news of soft US inflation, slowing Chinese growth as well as fears that highly indebted European countries like Cyprus may resort to selling gold reserves.

Gold Market Update – April 2013
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

1 May 2013

ASX 300 show greater resilience than the broader economy in Q1, with conditions stable. Finance, Business & Property considerably stronger. Confidence rebounded but weaker forward orders & stocks point to potential softness in the next quarter.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – March 2013

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2013

29 April 2013

SME confidence & conditions edge higher in March quarter but still near post-GFC lows; SMEs more pessimistic than larger firms and activity also more subdued. Capacity utilisation falls to lowest level in history, despite tick up in forward orders. Signs lower borrowing rates are helping…

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2013
CPI preview – March quarter 2013

CPI preview – March quarter 2013

24 April 2013

With little indication of inflation pressures emerging in the early months of 2013, we expect the CPI release (due 24 April) to confirm that underlying inflation remained subdued in March quarter 2013. We see underlying inflation remaining within the RBA’s target over the medium to longer…

CPI preview – March quarter 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013

19 April 2013

Business confidence lifts from late 2012 lows but still below average. That reflects better global confidence, stronger equity prices and lower borrowing rates at home. Conditions still subdued and with marked weakness in trade and consumer dependent sectors. Forward indicators …

Quarterly Business Survey – March 2013
NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2013

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2013

18 April 2013

Charitable giving slowed in the year to February 2013 as economic conditions and consumption weakened, and business and consumers became more cautious. The NAB Charitable Giving Index grew by 2.6% (12-month average) in February 2013 – down from 8.3% in the same period one year earlier.

NAB Charitable Giving Index: Indepth report – February 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013

10 April 2013

Our global forecasts remain little changed at 3.3% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2014. Renewed Euro-zone instability has taken a toll on global equity markets, which had strengthened quite markedly since late 2012, especially when compared to global economic activity and commodity markets.

Australia & the World on two pages – April 2013
Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013

10 April 2013

Commodity markets have turned bearish again following softer than expected economic data outcomes and concerns over a government crack down on Chinese real estate. The Cyprus banking crisis has also dampened confidence, while the terms of the EU bailout, and subsequent rhetoric has …

Commodity Update: Minerals and Energy – March 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013

9 April 2013

Global growth forecasts unchanged. Activity still sluggish but set to accelerate in second half of 2013. Financial markets digesting latest Euro-zone crisis (Cyprus) and new Japanese monetary policy.

Global & Australian Forecasts – April 2013
Monthly Business Survey – March 2013

Monthly Business Survey – March 2013

9 April 2013

Business conditions fall to weakest level in almost four years but confidence steady. Previous surge in activity in consumer sectors retail & manufacturing unwinds, with signs lower interest rates need more time to fully work through economy.

Monthly Business Survey – March 2013
State Economic Update – March 2013

State Economic Update – March 2013

20 March 2013

The disparity between business conditions that became increasingly pronounced following the GFC has narrowed over recent quarters; however, the convergence of conditions readings largely reflects a weakening in previously stronger performing industries and regions, suggesting…

State Economic Update – March 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013

13 March 2013

Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook has firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best.

Australia & the World on two pages – March 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013

12 March 2013

Global economy still sluggish in late 2012 but equities strengthen on stronger risk appetite and expectations of sustained global recovery. Partial data suggest better start to 2013; we still see marginally better growth in major advanced economies this year, accelerating in 2014.

Global & Australian Forecasts – March 2013
Monthly Business Survey – February 2013

Monthly Business Survey – February 2013

12 March 2013

Business conditions & confidence both edge down in February. High AUD hurting manufacturing and lack of non-mining demand weighing on most sectors. Large falls in orders, poor capacity use, and weak capex plans (esp. mining) don’t augur well for near-term (weak) domestic demand.

Monthly Business Survey – February 2013
Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013

5 March 2013

Once again, movements in commodity prices have been dominated by events in China and growing speculation over the timed withdrawal of QE stimulus by the US Fed. With market participants on the sidelines throughout most of February due to many of the Asian economies celebrating the …

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy February 2013
Quarterly SME Survey – December 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2012

19 February 2013

SME confidence & conditions weaken a touch in Q4 and poor relative to history; sentiment and activity of SMEs a touch weaker than their larger counterparts. Forward indicators remain subdued implying little upturn in near-term activity. Weakness in manufacturing, retail, wholesale and ….

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2012
Monthly Business Survey – January 2013

Monthly Business Survey – January 2013

12 February 2013

Business confidence hangs on to gains made last month on reduced global fears. Business conditions improve a touch, but still poor. Signs that previously stronger industries are being dragged down by weakness elsewhere. Capacity utilisation now lowest since 2001 and forward orders remain …

Monthly Business Survey – January 2013
Quarterly Business Survey – December 2012

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2012

7 February 2013

Business conditions weaken to lowest level since June quarter 2009; weakness very apparent in construction, manufacturing and now mining. Forward indicators worsen. Confidence edges lower and very subdued – especially in mining. Medium-term expectations poor and capex lower again.

Quarterly Business Survey – December 2012
Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013

1 February 2013

Financial and commodity markets have generally strengthened recently, following the last minute agreement to hold off the US fiscal cliff. Signs of strengthening in China’s manufacturing sector has also provided some confidence about the outlook for global growth.

Rural Commodities Wrap – January 2013
Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013

31 January 2013

Financial markets have lifted as confidence in the global growth outlook firmed but late 2012 data for world exports and industrial output remained soft, showing modest expansion in activity at best. Central bank action in the Euro-zone, US and Japan has boosted market hopes

Australia & the World on two pages – January 2013
Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013

29 January 2013

Global economy sluggish in late 2012 but signs of an upturn, that gathers pace through next two years. Financial markets strengthen reflecting “risk on” as confidence in global outlook strengthens in wake of central bank action. Emerging market economies will still drive global growth.

Global & Australian Forecasts – January 2013
Monthly Business Survey – December 2012

Monthly Business Survey – December 2012

29 January 2013

Business confidence posts a sharp jump in December, but not so activity and forward indicators, which remain poor - particularly wholesale, manufacturing, retail and construction. Better external sentiment (temporary avoidance of the US ‘fiscal cliff’), strengthening in Chinese data

Monthly Business Survey – December 2012
CPI preview – December quarter 2012

CPI preview – December quarter 2012

22 January 2013

We expect the December quarter CPI release (due 23 January) to confirm that inflationary pressures remained moderate in the final months of 2012. We expect a core inflation rate of 0.7% (2.4% through the year; including the impact of carbon), unchanged from the September quarter...

CPI preview – December quarter 2012
NAB changes interest rate forecasts for 2013

NAB changes interest rate forecasts for 2013

21 January 2013

RBA now expected to cut by 75 points to 2¼% as economy struggles. With the economy continuing to weaken and unemployment set to rise noticeably through 2013 the RBA will need to cut significantly further than previously expected in 2013.

NAB changes interest rate forecasts for 2013
Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012

Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012

12 December 2012

Although interest rates are historically low in the advanced economies and central banks have stepped up liquidity injections, their pace of economic growth remains very weak. The big emerging economies are driving global growth, and it looks as if their economies are stabilising.

Australia & the world on two pages – December 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012

11 December 2012

Global growth still sluggish and expected to stay that way in 2013. US growth is moderate, Japan and Euro-zone weak, emerging economies now driving global expansion. Australian economy slowed in Q3 and may soften again in Q4.

Global & Australian Forecasts – December 2012
Monthly Business Survey – November 2012

Monthly Business Survey – November 2012

11 December 2012

The brakes have firmly tightened on activity in November; business conditions very weak in construction, retail, manufacturing and wholesale. Signs of trouble ahead with confidence slumping to lowest level since April 2009, with little hint of a pre-Christmas revival

Monthly Business Survey – November 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012

13 November 2012

Global growth still sluggish with major divergences between different regions. Below trend growth expected to continue into 2013 as world economy averts major risks in US and Euro-zone. Australian economy stumbles into Q4, with growth clearly below trend.

Global & Australian Forecasts – November 2012
Monthly Business Survey – October 2012

Monthly Business Survey – October 2012

13 November 2012

Business conditions stumble to weakest level in more than three years, with wholesale and manufacturing conditions especially subdued. Confidence also edges lower. Activity forecasts unchanged but 25bp February rate cut on the cards, providing modest Q4 CPI.

Monthly Business Survey – October 2012
Gold Market Update – October 2012

Gold Market Update – October 2012

6 November 2012

The gold price rose by a spectacular 7 per cent over September. Some of the strength has subsequently been unwound, with the gold price easing to around US$1,710 per ounce in early November. We have lifted our forecasts a little

Gold Market Update – October 2012
Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012

1 November 2012

Australian online retail sales up 23 percent yoy in September, but the level is still modest compared to traditional sales. Domestic online retailers continue to innovate – in an effort to develop or maintain a competitive advantage.

Online Retail Sales Index monthly update – September 2012
ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2012

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2012

29 October 2012

The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. It aims to share business insights and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter.

ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey – September 2012
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2012

25 October 2012

SME confidence and conditions better in Q3 but still below average; sentiment of SMEs now in line with their larger counterparts but activity, capacity utilisation and new orders continue to under perform. Strength in recreation & personal services and transport a consistent theme

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2012
Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2012

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2012

18 October 2012

Business conditions improve in the quarter but still soft. However, Monthly survey results suggest conditions weakened towards the end of the quarter. Forward indicators remain very weak. Confidence up a touch but still at downbeat levels – especially mining

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2012
State Economic Update – October 2012

State Economic Update – October 2012

16 October 2012

Economic conditions in NSW are likely to improve only marginally over the coming year with conditions within the state likely to vary wildly. By all measures, the Victorian economy continues to under perform the national average, with SFD growth slowing to 2.1 per cent in 2011-12

State Economic Update – October 2012
Monthly Business Survey – September 2011

Monthly Business Survey – September 2011

11 October 2012

Conditions recover and businesses take comfort from better sales, a lower AUD and talk of interest rate cuts. Global uncertainty still weighing on near-term activity indicators.  Business conditions improved in September, after edging down over the previous two months, with the outcome suggesting that the Australian economy may be stabilising. However, there are still signs […]

Monthly Business Survey – September 2011
Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012

11 October 2012

Over September, minerals and energy prices have been assisted higher by central bank monetary easing and various other stimulus measures taken by policy makers around the world. Bad news has become good, and good news has become ‘bad’ for markets.

Commodity Update – Minerals and Energy September 2012
Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012

Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012

11 October 2012

The latest business surveys suggest that conditions in the big advanced economies have stabilised after the softening in growth that took place since late 2011. Monthly trade and industrial indicators still point to a broad-based slowing across the emerging economie

Australia & the world on two pages – October 2012
Monthly Business Survey – September 2012

Monthly Business Survey – September 2012

9 October 2012

Business confidence recovers modestly but still down beat – especially mining. Business conditions disappoint – with struggling retail and wholesale falling significantly. Forward orders noticeably weaker and capacity utilisation trending down - indicative of weakening demand.

Monthly Business Survey – September 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2012

9 October 2012

Global economy slowing but recent advanced economy surveys show stabilisation. Broad-based slowing under way across emerging economies. Global forecasts a touch lower in 2013 but risks remain (US “fiscal cliff”). Australian economy softening to below trend amid restructuring stresses.

Global & Australian Forecasts – October 2012
Online Retail Sales Index Monthly update – August 2012

Online Retail Sales Index Monthly update – August 2012

3 October 2012

Growth in online spending remains strong - relative to the past year - with spending increasing by around +22% year-on-year in August. This level is slightly softer than in July. In the year to August 2012, Australians spent a total of $11.9 billion in online retail sales. This figure is equivalent to 5.4% of traditional bricks & mortar retail spending (excluding cafes, restaurants and takeaway food) for the year ended July 2012.

Online Retail Sales Index Monthly update – August 2012
Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012

Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012

28 September 2012

A monthly snapshot of NAB’s global and domestic economic outlook. The Bigger Picture – A Global & Australian Economic Perspective Global: The global economy is experiencing a broad-based slowdown with both the advanced and emerging economies reporting a softening in growth. Conditions vary between regions with recession in Western Europe, slowdowns in China, India and […]

Australia & the World on Two pages – September 2012
RBA to ease further in coming months

RBA to ease further in coming months

27 September 2012

We have changed our forecast and now see the RBA moving to cut the cash rate again in the coming months, probably by a cumulative 50 basis points; What has changed is that in recent weeks the RBA has signalled concern about the mix of the sustained drop in commodity and ongoing high AUD; Other […]

RBA to ease further in coming months
IMF World Economic Outlook – September 2011

IMF World Economic Outlook – September 2011

22 September 2012

The IMF has revised down its forecasts of world growth, particularly for advanced economies. Its Australian forecasts have also been downgraded, to 1.8% in 2011 (from 3.0% in April – catch up after weaker than expected GDP in H1) and 3.3% in 2012 (from 3.5%).  For 2011 NABs forecast is 1.9%, not materially different from […]

IMF World Economic Outlook – September 2011
Online Retail Sales Index: June 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: June 2012

12 September 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales growth recorded […]

Online Retail Sales Index: June 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts

Global & Australian Forecasts

11 September 2012

NAB’s Global and Australian Forecast provides a monthly snapshot of NAB’s global and domestic economic outlook. Global economy still slowing with softening across advanced and emerging economies. Growth set to pick-up in 2013 as worst economic risks averted. Australian economy still drifting through soft patch with falling commodity prices now weighing on mining. But investment […]

Global & Australian Forecasts
Monthly Business Survey – August 2012

Monthly Business Survey – August 2012

11 September 2012

Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions improve on the back of strengthening trading and profitability – especially in interest sensitive sectors. But confidence falls […]

Monthly Business Survey – August 2012
Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2012

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2012

31 August 2012

Global economy slows with softening evident across advanced and emerging economies. Worst risks should be averted and global growth to pick-up slightly in 2013. Australian economy at trend but softening, while confidence helped by Euro-zone comments and lower interest rates. Labour market and orders still soft but activity to hold up sufficiently to circumvent need […]

Global & Australian Forecasts – August 2012
Monthly Business Survey – July 2012

Monthly Business Survey – July 2012

14 August 2012

Australia’s monthly survey of the current performance of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 350 small to large sized companies. Includes a monthly update of the global and Australian economic outlook. Business conditions worsen in the face of poor trading and profits, with weakness particularly evident in retail and wholesale – […]

Monthly Business Survey – July 2012
Gold market update – August 2012

Gold market update – August 2012

3 August 2012

London 2012 Olympics upon us but the boost to gold demand from Australian athletes still quite limited. The gold price eased by 0.4 per cent over July, and following a rally late last week, has fallen back to around US$1,590 per ounce. It is difficult to know what direction the gold price will take in […]

Gold market update – August 2012
Monthly Business Survey – June 2012

Monthly Business Survey – June 2012

10 July 2012

Business conditions improve slightly but overall activity remains soft; forward orders and employment conditions imply weak near-term demand. Confidence falls marginally, implying little relief from RBA rate cuts; European uncertainty and new taxes may be weighing on sentiment. Government handouts provide some respite to consumer dependant sectors but benefits may be short-lived – time will […]

Monthly Business Survey – June 2012
Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

Retail drives ASX 300 business conditions lower in Q2, with a weaker trend tipped for Q3. Business conditions deteriorated across the economy in the second quarter of 2012, with declines recorded among firms in both the ASX 300 survey and the broader Quarterly Business Survey (QBS). ASX 300 firms recorded a net balance of 0 […]

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – June 2012
NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012

30 June 2012

The NAB Manufacturing Activity Index provides detailed analysis of activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector and has been constructed to replicate quarterly movements in activity within the sector. The Manufacturing Activity Index* eased further in Q2, remaining in negative territory – despite some divergent trends in individual sub-sectors. The index implies declines in quarter-on-quarter growth in […]

NAB Manufacturing Activity Index – Q2 2012
China’s role in Australia’s economy – 1 June 2012

China’s role in Australia’s economy – 1 June 2012

30 June 2012

NAB takes a closer look at the growing economic integration of the Australian economy to growth in the Chinese economy. Australia’s growth is becoming increasingly sensitive to the strength of the Chinese economy China’s growth looks to be heading towards a soft landing But what would happen if growth is de-railed? It seems likely that […]

China’s role in Australia’s economy – 1 June 2012
Quarterly SME Survey – June 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2012

30 June 2012

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence & conditions deteriorate further. Weakness in small firms increasingly pronounced compared to their larger counterparts – weakness in manufacturing, retail and construction a persistent theme across all small firm […]

Quarterly SME Survey – June 2012
Quarterly Business Survey – June 2012

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2012

19 June 2012

Business conditions weaken; forward orders and other indicators of near-term demand still soft. Confidence slips further, with heightened European uncertainty seemingly outweighing relief provided from RBA rate cuts – new taxes may also be weighing on sentiment. Business conditions weakened in the June quarter, following modestly better activity over recent quarters. Official ABS data suggest […]

Quarterly Business Survey – June 2012
Monthly Business Survey – May 2012

Monthly Business Survey – May 2012

12 June 2012

Business conditions now the weakest in three years: mining and construction down sharply. Confidence falters on global Greek exit fears, weak orders and negative reaction to the May Budget. Indicators of demand imply softer near-term activity and more jobs shedding in weak sectors. RBA to cut again in coming months.  Business confidence deteriorated sharply in […]

Monthly Business Survey – May 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: May 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: May 2012

31 May 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales growth continued […]

Online Retail Sales Index: May 2012
Monthly Business Survey – April 2012

Monthly Business Survey – April 2012

7 May 2012

Businesses remain confident of better near-term activity but actual conditions weaken in April – with multi-speed element widening again. Forward indicators remain lacklustre, with a material decline in capacity utilisation signalling increased slack in the economy – and further weakness in the labour market ahead. More rate action to come, although how much depends on […]

Monthly Business Survey – April 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – April 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – April 2012

30 April 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. The value of the […]

Online Retail Sales Index: In depth report – April 2012
Quarterly business survey – March quarter 2012

Quarterly business survey – March quarter 2012

19 April 2012

The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions edge higher but lack of jobs growth likely to keep near-term activity fairly soft. Confidence slips back and remains below trend. Forward […]

Quarterly business survey – March quarter 2012
Monthly Business Survey – March 2012

Monthly Business Survey – March 2012

10 April 2012

Confidence and conditions grind higher but with little jobs growth. Forward indicators marginally improve but remain subdued. Multi speed economy still to the fore – with non mining edging up a touch. Domestic forecasts edge lower with unemployment up. Rates view unchanged. Businesses appeared slightly more confident about near-term activity in March than in February, […]

Monthly Business Survey – March 2012
Online Retail Sales Index: March 2012

Online Retail Sales Index: March 2012

31 March 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Growth in online sales […]

Online Retail Sales Index: March 2012
Quarterly SME Survey – March 2012

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2012

29 March 2012

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Seasonal adjustment of SME survey results SME survey data reported in the March 2012 NAB Quarterly SME Business Survey have been seasonally adjusted for the first time in the history of […]

Quarterly SME Survey – March 2012
State Economic Update – March 2012

State Economic Update – March 2012

21 March 2012

Australian economic commentary on a state by state basis. NSW Following a relatively sluggish year, the growth momentum in NSW appears to be lifting, with SFD increasing by 0.8 per cent in the December quarter. Importantly, NSW appears to have an investment driver with business investment lifting in the December quarter, buoyed by a solid […]

State Economic Update – March 2012
Monthly Business Survey – February 2012

Monthly Business Survey – February 2012

13 March 2012

Confidence retreats while conditions edge higher. Forward indicators remain weak. Retail, manufacturing and construction still struggling while services, transport and mining strong. Growth lowered locally.  Businesses appeared less confident about near-term activity in February than in January. While overall confidence remained positive, uncertainty emanating from the euro-zone and financial markets, the persistent strength in the […]

Monthly Business Survey – February 2012
Online Retail Sales Index – February 2012

Online Retail Sales Index – February 2012

26 February 2012

The NAB Online Retail Sales Index provides key insights into online spending in the retail goods space, capturing domestic and international trends, as well as regional and age demographic trends. It’s a unique tool based on up to 2 million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broader economy. Online sales strengthen in […]

Online Retail Sales Index – February 2012
Monthly Business Survey – January 2012

Monthly Business Survey – January 2012

14 February 2012

Confidence and conditions a touch better but economy still marking time. Sectors remain wide apart. Inflation weakening as retailers increase discounts and one more rate cut possible.  Overall business confidence was relatively firm in the month, with businesses seemingly still taking relief from the recent RBA rate cuts as well some abatement of concerns about […]

Monthly Business Survey – January 2012
Quarterly Business Survey – December quarter 2011

Quarterly Business Survey – December quarter 2011

9 February 2012

The most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Despite better business conditions and improved confidence, survey still only suggestive of an economy growing at around trend. Forward indicators slightly better, implying a […]

Quarterly Business Survey – December quarter 2011
Monthly Business Survey – December 2011

Monthly Business Survey – December 2011

31 January 2012

Confidence up a touch in December, despite global economic worries. Conditions consistent with an economy going sideways – but multi- speed. GDP forecasts lowered & two rate cuts now expected in 2012.  Business confidence strengthened a little in December, although it remained below the series long-run average. Business sentiment over recent months has been seemingly […]

Monthly Business Survey – December 2011
Difference over global outlook more apparent than real – January 2012

Difference over global outlook more apparent than real – January 2012

19 January 2012

New World Bank projections show 2012 global growth slowing to only 2½%, well below NAB’s 3¼% forecast. The difference is largely illusory and reflects how forecasts are compiled.  On a comparable basis NAB forecasts are slightly lower than the World Bank’s. For further analysis download the full report. Difference over global outlook more apparent than […]

Difference over global outlook more apparent than real – January 2012
Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011

30 December 2011

The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Strong rebound in business confidence for ASX300 firms – exceeding the broader economy; business conditions record […]

Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – December 2011
Quarterly SME Survey – December 2011

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2011

30 December 2011

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. SME confidence and conditions rebound but still below levels of their larger counterparts. Low tier (smallest) SMEs struggle. SME firms reported improved confidence in the December quarter – especially compared to […]

Quarterly SME Survey – December 2011
Monthly Business Survey – November 2011

Monthly Business Survey – November 2011

30 November 2011

Conditions improve slightly in November and are consistent with an economy growing around trend. Services sectors (ex. finance) and retail doing better. Confidence overall relatively stable – despite European concerns. GDP revised up on mining & consumer strength. Business conditions edged higher in November, after softening a little in the previous month, and are consistent […]

Monthly Business Survey – November 2011
Monthly Business Survey – October 2011

Monthly Business Survey – October 2011

8 November 2011

Conditions soften in October, suggesting growth in the economy is treading water. But, for the second month in a row, confidence has improved. Also tentative signs of Qld re-construction kicking in.  Business conditions softened in October, partly unwinding an improvement in conditions in the previous month, with trend conditions suggestive of an economy that is […]

Monthly Business Survey – October 2011
Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2011

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2011

20 October 2011

The NAB Quarterly Business Survey is the most comprehensive survey of current performance as well as near-term and medium-term expectations of the non-farm business sector, based on a survey of around 1,000 small to large sized companies. Business conditions slump and confidence falters mid-quarter, but monthly profile points to subsequent improving trend. Hours worked strengthens […]

Quarterly Business Survey – September quarter 2011
NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011

30 September 2011

The ASX 300 Quarterly Business Survey captures the views of the ASX 300 business community and is a key peer comparator for companies. The report shares business and sector insights, and an understanding of economic confidence for the quarter. Business conditions for ASX300 declined further in Q3 – driven by manufacturing – narrowing the gap […]

NAB Quarterly ASX 300 Business Survey – September 2011
Quarterly SME Survey – September 2011

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2011

30 September 2011

The NAB Quarterly SME Survey covers conditions in small, medium and emerging businesses (SMEs) across all parts of the non-farm business sector in Australia. Subdued SME conditions persist and confidence falls further. Business confidence of SMEs fell heavily in the September quarter, consolidating a sharp decline in the June quarter and consistent with the deterioration […]

Quarterly SME Survey – September 2011
Monthly Business Survey – August 2011

Monthly Business Survey – August 2011

13 September 2011

Global jitters jolt confidence. But could have been worse given global turmoil. Business conditions only a touch weaker – but with further restructuring evident in a widening of the multi-speed economy.  Business confidence dropped sharply in August, with heightened global uncertainty, large falls in equity markets and the fear of debt market contagion. Confidence deteriorated […]

Monthly Business Survey – August 2011
Monthly Business Survey – July 2011

Monthly Business Survey – July 2011

9 August 2011

Business conditions weaken showing an economy continuing to lose momentum and traveling below trend. Confidence remains subdued in the face of continuing uncertainty – but carbon didn’t appear to cause further retreat.  Growth in the domestic economy weakening in July, with business conditions now indicative of below-trend growth. This weakening trend was broad based – […]

Monthly Business Survey – July 2011