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NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

8 February 2023

Tapas Strickland, Head of Markets Economics NAB, James Sheehan, Head of Business Markets NSW/ACT, and Tracy Ferguson State Director Business Markets NSW discuss the February 2023 RBA meeting and outlook, inflation, the labour market, and potential risks ahead.    

NAB Markets (Metro) – What is the Pathway for Interest Rates?

Webinar

Navigating the funding landscape in 2023

Navigating the funding landscape in 2023

13 December 2022

After the wild ride for funding in 2022, the new year is presenting banks with a new set of challenges to work through using a pragmatic and flexible approach to managing the task.

Navigating the funding landscape in 2023

Article

How to manage risk of margin pressure from Australian Dollar fluctuations

How to manage risk of margin pressure from Australian Dollar fluctuations

20 July 2022

Many Australian exporters and importers are seeing their margins eroded, due to factors such as rising input costs and challenges with drawn-out supply chains. Another potential hazard arises from the increased volatility in currency markets, in particular the value of the Australian Dollar relative to the United States Dollar. This year alone, it has traded […]

How to manage risk of margin pressure from Australian Dollar fluctuations

Article

Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)

Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)

11 January 2017

US small business owners tend to be Republican, and those who are member of the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) overwhelmingly so. Thus optimism among NFIB members surged to its highest level since 2004 in December and with the monthly increase, from 98.4 to 105.8, the largest since 1980.

Markets Today: Lovin’ You (Donald)
Markets Today: Brexit Poker Face

Markets Today: Brexit Poker Face

10 January 2017

Global equities were mostly lower overnight, dragged lower by the oil price. That added to an already uncertain tone following indications that the UK may be hurtling towards a harder Brexit than first thought.

Markets Today: Brexit Poker Face
Markets Today: Synergy

Markets Today: Synergy

9 January 2017

When thinking about a title for today’s note and the impact the US labour market report had on Friday’s session, Aristotle’s quote ” the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” seemed quite fitting, but way too long for a title.

Markets Today: Synergy
Markets Today:  Seasons Greetings

Markets Today: Seasons Greetings

23 December 2016

As the markets quieten down for the holiday break, we reflect on the tumultuous year we’ve just been through: Trump, Brexit, the rise of far-right politics and the tide of anti-immigration fervour.

Markets Today:  Seasons Greetings
Markets Today: Close but no cigar

Markets Today: Close but no cigar

22 December 2016

It seems unlikely that Italy’s largest Bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, will meet today’s timetable to raise five billion Euros and provide a lifeline beyond March.

Markets Today: Close but no cigar
Australian Markets Weekly: 19 December 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 19 December 2016

20 December 2016

Australia’s population growth remains strong by historical and international standards at around 1.4% y/y. That is 338,000 persons in the past year – nearly equivalent to the population of Canberra being added to Australia each year.

Australian Markets Weekly: 19 December 2016
Markets Today: We can work it out

Markets Today: We can work it out

20 December 2016

Janet Yellen gave a talk this morning reinforcing the commentary around the strength of the US economy, pointing to steady growth in jobs and rising living standards. A less rosy picture for Australia, of course, but, not bad enough for ratings agencies to act.

Markets Today: We can work it out
Markets Today: Two become three

Markets Today: Two become three

15 December 2016

The US Fed delivered their anticipated 25 basis point rate hike this morning, but they surprised markets by announcing an expectation of three further rises in 2017, one more than previously anticipated.

Markets Today: Two become three
Markets Today: All things must pass

Markets Today: All things must pass

9 December 2016

Mario Draghi had the markets wondering whether the European Central Bank would extend its bond buying program or start tapering its commitment. In the end, it seems, they’ve done both.

Markets Today: All things must pass
Markets Today: Born this way

Markets Today: Born this way

7 December 2016

Back in March 2011 Lady Gaga’s hit “Born this way” was leading the music chart in Australia and Pink was number one on the Billboard chart.

Markets Today: Born this way
Markets Today: La Dolce Vita

Markets Today: La Dolce Vita

6 December 2016

The market’s knee jerk reaction to “no” outcome from the Italian referendum saw the Euro fall back by over a big figure for an hour or so, but that was it.

Markets Today: La Dolce Vita
Markets Today: Poor Wages

Markets Today: Poor Wages

5 December 2016

An early song from English progressive rock band Barclay James Harvest. No, it’s not on my playlist either.

Markets Today: Poor Wages
Markets Today: Pay 2 Play

Markets Today: Pay 2 Play

2 December 2016

Talk of oil cuts has been enough to see prices rise again overnight, up 15% this week. So what’s it doing to bond yields and the US dollar?

Markets Today: Pay 2 Play
Markets Today: Vienna

Markets Today: Vienna

1 December 2016

Oil prices shot up when OPEC announced that a deal had been reached in Vienna, giving special dispensation to Iran, but overall cuts across the group.

Markets Today: Vienna
Markets Today: Deal or no deal

Markets Today: Deal or no deal

30 November 2016

The key event this week will come from Vienna where ministers from OPEC are scheduled to meet and hopefully finalise the first cut in oil production in eight years.

Markets Today: Deal or no deal
Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016

28 November 2016

Rising oil prices from early this year and again from the middle of the year have been associated with rising medium-to-longer term US inflationary expectations (and indeed expectations globally).

Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016
Markets Today: Higher Ground

Markets Today: Higher Ground

28 November 2016

Oil prices, of course, have a massive bearing on the rate of inflation throughout the world. That's why the outcome of OPEC talks this week are crucial.

Markets Today: Higher Ground
Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey

Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey

25 November 2016

In his 2007 best seller “The Black Swan” Nassim Taleb uses the life of a thanksgiving turkey as an analogy for explaining a black swan occurrence i.e. a tail event that is so remote that is completely unforeseen.

Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey
Markets Today: Big Jet Plane

Markets Today: Big Jet Plane

24 November 2016

The song by Angus and Julia Stone (my absolute favourite Sydney band) made number 1 on Triple J’s Hottest 100 songs of 2010 and was responsible for propelling them on to the international stage. Big jet planes were also responsible for the 4.8% jump in US October durable goods orders reported last night and which […]

Markets Today: Big Jet Plane
Markets Today: Magic bus

Markets Today: Magic bus

23 November 2016

The USD continued to march a little higher, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up another 0.14%, gains mostly against the Euro, the Yen, and Sterling, the latter from some self-inflicted news.

Markets Today: Magic bus
Markets Today: OPEC on “The Edge of Glory”

Markets Today: OPEC on “The Edge of Glory”

22 November 2016

The S&P 500 hit a new high overnight, largely because of a spike in oil prices as Vladimir Putin steps in and says he expects OPEC to reach a deal next week, and agreeing to limit production in Russia.

Markets Today: OPEC on “The Edge of Glory”
Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same

Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same

21 November 2016

A key question this week, for the AUD at least, is whether local exporters will continue to stand aside expectant of still better levels to initiate longer dated hedges and/or whether local real money will now look to lift hedge ratios.

Markets Today: The (bond) song remains the same
Markets Today: Tangled up in red

Markets Today: Tangled up in red

17 November 2016

It’s been an overnight session of digestion and reflection for the market, one week on now from the Presidential election.

Markets Today: Tangled up in red
Markets Today: Party in the USA

Markets Today: Party in the USA

16 November 2016

It’s been a night in which the US bond market has staged a mediocre rally – not quite a party – for most of the session, tilted to the belly of the curve and the long end. It looks to have been some profit taking after the surge in yields since the US election.

Markets Today: Party in the USA
Markets Today: For what is worth

Markets Today: For what is worth

15 November 2016

Leonard Cohen passed away last week and on my way in I was listening to a mix of folk tunes with the hope of finding one of his songs as a title for today’s note.

Markets Today: For what is worth
Australian Markets Weekly: 14 November 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 14 November 2016

14 November 2016

While it is reasonable to expect economic change, the degree is understandably uncertain given that in recent days some of the President Elect’s policy positions have been softened and meanwhile policy initiatives will need to be approved by Congress.

Australian Markets Weekly: 14 November 2016
Markets Today: Back to reality

Markets Today: Back to reality

14 November 2016

Following the severe earthquake this morning in South Island NZ, the Wellington CBD is out of action including the BNZ Harbour Quays building. BNZ Markets will be operating from Auckland / Christchurch and DR sites.

Markets Today: Back to reality
Markets Today: Hate that I love you

Markets Today: Hate that I love you

11 November 2016

Prospects of greater US fiscal spending (infrastructure and tax cuts) under a Trump Presidency continue to buoy equity markets, while US bond markets are sold on the prospects that such policies are inflationary.

Markets Today: Hate that I love you
Markets Today: Bart to the future

Markets Today: Bart to the future

10 November 2016

16 Years ago the Simpsons episode “Bart to the future” aired for the first time with a plot partly consisting of Lisa becoming president of the United States. Lisa tries to get the country out of financial trouble due to the high levels of debt left by the previous president, Donald Trump.

Markets Today: Bart to the future
Markets Today: The heat is on

Markets Today: The heat is on

9 November 2016

And it’s on two fronts this morning. The first is of course the election outcome as America votes to elect its 45th President. The second story relates to news breaking out of China yesterday that the authorities are stepping in to take the heat out of coal and steel-related prices.

Markets Today: The heat is on
Markets Today: The final countdown

Markets Today: The final countdown

8 November 2016

Today feels a bit like a trip into the unknown with the US election entering its final stage as Americans head to the polls tonight.

Markets Today: The final countdown
Markets Today: House of fun

Markets Today: House of fun

4 November 2016

The focus for markets overnight was well and truly back on the UK with Sterling the stand-out performer overnight, trading this morning with a solid 1.24 handle, a full three big figures above where it opened the week.

Markets Today: House of fun
Markets Today: Comin’ back soon

Markets Today: Comin’ back soon

3 November 2016

This Fed meeting came with no press conference and updated forecasts for this meeting; that next comes at the December 15 meeting.

Markets Today: Comin’ back soon
Markets Today: Down in Mexico

Markets Today: Down in Mexico

2 November 2016

US Equities are off, the VIX is up, the US dollar is lower, US Treasury yields are lower and the Mexican Peso/Japanese Yen cross (-2.5%) is still proving to the be the FX market’s weapon of choice when it comes to reflecting sentiment regarding the prospect of Donald Trump.

Markets Today: Down in Mexico
Markets Today: Playing it cool

Markets Today: Playing it cool

1 November 2016

There was no scary ending to the month of October with markets in general playing it cool ahead of a busy week of data releases, central bank meetings and what is turning out to be a fairly dramatic US presidential election.

Markets Today: Playing it cool
Markets Today: The Fear

Markets Today: The Fear

31 October 2016

In the hour after it was announced that Hillary Clinton’s e-mails were the subject of a new FBI probe, USD/JPY dropped from Y105.50 to Y104.50, the S&P dropped 20 points or 1% with the VIX spiking by 19% and 10-year Treasuries dropped 2bps from 1.85% to 1.83%.

Markets Today: The Fear
Markets Today: Too Much [Brexit] Heaven?

Markets Today: Too Much [Brexit] Heaven?

28 October 2016

The Bee Gees 1979 classic “Too Much Heaven” pretty much sums up overnight news, with UK GDP printing much better than expected at 0.5% q/q against expectations of a 0.3% print.

Markets Today: Too Much [Brexit] Heaven?
Markets Today: Turbulence

Markets Today: Turbulence

27 October 2016

Turbulence, a little known track by American pop punk band Bowling for Soup appears to be an appropriate title for today’s note. The song was written by Jaret Reddick after he asked a pilot whether he found turbulence frightening.

Markets Today: Turbulence
Markets Today: Fresh Fruit

Markets Today: Fresh Fruit

26 October 2016

Seven years on from their 1974 classic ‘Whiter Shade of Pale’, Procol Harem’s light-hearted ode to the health benefits of fruit is set for a test today. Healthy on the body fruit may be, but possibly not on the hip pocket in Q3 according to our economists.

Markets Today: Fresh Fruit
Markets Today: Merger Monday

Markets Today: Merger Monday

25 October 2016

While European markets started the week in a lethargic mood, trading sideways for most of the day, US stocks opened higher following a series of merger announcements with the market also getting a boost from better than expected earnings reports.

Markets Today: Merger Monday
Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016

24 October 2016

With the RBA a keen inflation targetter, albeit within a flexible medium-term framework, each quarterly CPI reading provides an important update on current inflation trends and is a key input into the Bank’s forecasts.

Australian Markets Weekly: 24 October 2016
Markets Today: 80

Markets Today: 80

24 October 2016

Auction clearance rates in Australia this weekend hit 80% - not just in Sydney and Melbourne but nationally and for the first time since early 2015.

Markets Today: 80
Markets Today: O Canada!

Markets Today: O Canada!

20 October 2016

The revelation by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz following an as-expected unchanged monetary policy decision that the Bank ‘had actively discussed the possibility’ of further monetary policy easing at Wednesday’s meeting.

Markets Today: O Canada!
Markets Today: Counting the beat

Markets Today: Counting the beat

19 October 2016

Ahead of today’s welter of Chinese GDP and activity data, the AUD is trading this morning almost bang on where it was yesterday afternoon.

Markets Today: Counting the beat
Markets Today: Cautious Man

Markets Today: Cautious Man

18 October 2016

Bruce Springsteen cautious man tells the story of a man that has doubts about his marriage and in a similar way markets have started the week in a tentative mood reflecting some concerns on the outlook.

Markets Today: Cautious Man
Markets Today: Under (high) pressure

Markets Today: Under (high) pressure

17 October 2016

In contrast Janet Yellen’s speech in Boston did - primarily in the form of higher Treasury yields at the longer end of the curve and with that late-day support for U.S. dollar. NY Fed President Bill Dudley said he expects a rate rise this year on current forecasts.

Markets Today: Under (high) pressure
Markets Today: Bad [FOMC] Romance?

Markets Today: Bad [FOMC] Romance?

13 October 2016

While the FOMC Minutes captured the market’s attention, for your scribe the most instructive comments came from the Fed’s Dudley who serves as the FOMC vice-chair in his fireside chat overnight.

Markets Today: Bad [FOMC] Romance?
Markets Today: Chain Reaction

Markets Today: Chain Reaction

12 October 2016

Coming into work this morning I couldn’t help but think of Diana Ross’ Chain Reaction. It certainly was where US markets were concerned, with markets playing catch-up following the Columbus Day holiday to developments since the weekend.

Markets Today: Chain Reaction
Markets Today: Midnight oil

Markets Today: Midnight oil

11 October 2016

Well it wasn't exactly midnight, but close enough. In a night that was expected to be relatively quiet given the US was celebrating Columbus Day, oil prices provided some fireworks after President Putin announced his support to a production freeze or even cut in oil output.

Markets Today: Midnight oil
Markets Today: Inception

Markets Today: Inception

7 October 2016

Last night the ECB released its accounts of its September policy meeting and as expected there was no mention of tapering, the Bank reiterated its willingness and ability to ease further, if needed, while concerns over the lack of an uplift in core inflation was also evident.

Markets Today: Inception
Markets Today: Beautiful Lies

Markets Today: Beautiful Lies

6 October 2016

Last night’s US non-manufacturing ISM report was certainly something to behold, with not only the headline read of 57.1 more than reversing the August drip.

Markets Today: Beautiful Lies
Markets Today: Disturbia

Markets Today: Disturbia

5 October 2016

Core global yields and the Euro have been disturbed by a Bloomberg report claiming ECB officials were considering QE tapering while early in the session the Pound was under renewed pressure trading to a new post Brexit low.

Markets Today: Disturbia
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016

3 October 2016

Having just returned from a client tour this past week in the Riverina in southern NSW, there was also one topic that is currently front and centre for local farmers, and that was “rain”.

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016
Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow

Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow

3 October 2016

Who says fairy tales don’t come true with the Western Bulldogs and Cronulla both taking the silverware in the AFL and NRL grand finals over the weekend. Great results for both teams.

Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow
Markets Today: Psycho Killer

Markets Today: Psycho Killer

29 September 2016

If Janet Yellen has been in the recording studio at the time, David Byrne might well have been directing his lyrics in her direction.

Markets Today: Psycho Killer
Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World

Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World

27 September 2016

Four hours before an estimate 100 million Americans tune in to watch the two wannabe leaders of the free world go head to head, and a Bloomberg poll published around 7pm Australian Eastern Time last night shows Clinton and Trump tied on 46%.

Markets Today: (Keep on) Rockin’ in the Free World
Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?

Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?

26 September 2016

Not a huge amount to say about Friday’s offshore markets (unlike Saturday night’s AFL preliminary final), characterised by a give-back of some of the post-FOMC stock market euphoria, fractionally lower US bonds yields and a slightly stronger dollar.

Markets Today: Who Let The Dogs Out?
Markets Today: Up, up and away

Markets Today: Up, up and away

22 September 2016

It’s now a sea of green in the US equity markets in reaction to the Fed leaving rates on hold this morning, leaving the Fed funds rate at 0.25-0.50%, as nearly universally expected.

Markets Today: Up, up and away
Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over

Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over

21 September 2016

A rather measured night again in the lead up to the FOMC tomorrow morning and the BoJ meeting today where the Bank has been honing its thinking on policy to lift inflation.

Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over
Markets Today: Gasoline dreams

Markets Today: Gasoline dreams

20 September 2016

Markets have been tapping their fingers overnight in the lead up to the Fed meeting. Currencies have traded in very contained ranges, the USD only somewhat softer again with the US Treasury curve up 1-2 basis points for the session.

Markets Today: Gasoline dreams
Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics

Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics

19 September 2016

August U.S. CPI data turned out to be the driver of much of Friday night’s market price action. The 0.3% rise in the core CPI series pushed annual growth up to 2.3% from 2.2% - matching its post-recession cycle high and versus the 2.2% expected.

Markets Today: Lies, damn lies and statistics
Markets Today: From zero to hero

Markets Today: From zero to hero

16 September 2016

During the US dollar’s recent revival associated with deteriorating global risk sentiment and steepening yield curves, the commodity currencies – in particular the AUD and NZD – have been the hardest hit.

Markets Today: From zero to hero
Markets Today: Calm waters

Markets Today: Calm waters

15 September 2016

Mental preparations for another onslaught of selling bonds and equities offshore were put on the backburner with markets becalmed overnight.

Markets Today: Calm waters
Markets Today: Uneasy

Markets Today: Uneasy

14 September 2016

Yesterday Brainard's comments appeased fears of an imminent hike in September, but concerns of a rising belief within the Fed that the benefit of keeping monetary policy accommodative is waning appears have left markets uneasy

Markets Today: Uneasy
Markets Today: What a difference a day makes

Markets Today: What a difference a day makes

13 September 2016

Well there’s one conspiracy theory that has come to nought. That Fed Governor Brainard – a monetary policy dove to now – had become more policy hawkish and indicate that next week’s September 20-32 FOMC would be “live”.

Markets Today: What a difference a day makes
Markets Today: Spinning Around

Markets Today: Spinning Around

12 September 2016

If anyone harboured thoughts that global markets weren’t completely in the thrall of the ‘could they, would they?’ debate about the Fed’s 2016 intentions, they were disabused of the notion from the US get-go on Friday.

Markets Today: Spinning Around
Markets Today: Proud Mario

Markets Today: Proud Mario

9 September 2016

Three main developments overnight, a spike in oil prices, a somewhat more content ECB President, and a renewed AUD warning from RBA Governor Stevens in an AFR interview, the AUD in the wake of the interview pulling back from over 0.77 to 0.7642 this morning.

Markets Today: Proud Mario
Markets Today: Big up yourself

Markets Today: Big up yourself

8 September 2016

It has been a relatively quiet night for markets with the moves in GBP probably the major highlight. BoE Governor Carney faced the Treasury Select Committee in parliament and was quick to give himself a nice pat on the back for the bounce in business and consumer surveys in August.

Markets Today: Big up yourself
Markets Today: And then there were three

Markets Today: And then there were three

7 September 2016

The recent ramp up in Fed rhetoric aimed at putting the market on the scent of an imminent Fed funds rate hike took another blow last night following a sharp drop in the August ISM non-manufacturing index.

Markets Today: And then there were three
Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent

Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent

6 September 2016

In offshore markets depleted by the absence of the United States off for Labor Day, latest UK economic data and gyrations in the oil price captured most of the overnight headlines.

Markets Today: Britain’s Got Talent
Australian Markets Weekly: 5 September 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 5 September 2016

5 September 2016

This week, we thought we would focus on three themes: (i) Friday night’s US labour market data; (ii) this week’s upcoming Australian Q2 GDP data; and (iii) some thoughts on apartment settlements.

Australian Markets Weekly: 5 September 2016
Markets Today: Jump (for my love)

Markets Today: Jump (for my love)

2 September 2016

Jump (for my love) was a classic 1980s hit by the Pointer Sisters and one suspects would be particularly high in the Spotify lists of several Fed officials after last night’s weaker than expected Manufacturing ISM.

Markets Today: Jump (for my love)
Markets Today: Spring time

Markets Today: Spring time

1 September 2016

One of the first things that I learned when I arrived in Australia a few years ago is that spring in southern hemisphere countries doesn’t start on the same day.

Markets Today: Spring time
Markets Today: Mixed emotions

Markets Today: Mixed emotions

30 August 2016

Apparently this 1989 hit by the Rolling Stones was written by Mick Jagger as a response to Keith Richards solo effort “You don’t move me”.

Markets Today: Mixed emotions
Markets Today: September Song

Markets Today: September Song

29 August 2016

Janet Yellen’s Friday morning appearance at Jackson Hole proved not to be the damp squib that many were expecting.

Markets Today: September Song
Markets Today: Speak now

Markets Today: Speak now

26 August 2016

In a night of still very contained major FX crosses, Fed commentary has started to kick in from Jackson Hole.

Markets Today: Speak now
Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson

Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson

25 August 2016

Only on line one and I already feel like I’m making this up, such is the state of market torpor in front of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and as Sothern England basks in 30 degree summer sunshine – and uncharacteristically not for the first time this year.

Markets Today: (Janet’s) goin’ to Jackson
Markets Today: Poundcake

Markets Today: Poundcake

24 August 2016

It’s been a rather uneventful night for most of the major currencies, with the possible exception of Sterling.

Markets Today: Poundcake
Markets Today: Pulback

Markets Today: Pulback

23 August 2016

The rise in the USD and short dated UST yields on the back of Fed vice-chair Fisher's comments over the weekend have been partly unwound in the overnight session.

Markets Today: Pulback
Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing

Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing

22 August 2016

Friday looks to have shown FX traders to be the smartest guys in the room. Traditionally referred to as the ‘last market to clear’ (and so giving FX analysts such as this scribe a career) the dollar had put on a strong showing during the APAC session.

Markets Today: John, I’m only dancing
Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again

Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again

17 August 2016

It was an overnight session marked by two Fed speakers banging the drum (not as strongly as Keith Moon used to) warning that even the September 22 FOMC is not off the radar for a Fed rate increase.

Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again
Markets Today: An American Trilogy

Markets Today: An American Trilogy

16 August 2016

Europe had a quiet day with many continental countries observing Assumption day. The Stoxx 600 index ended the day flat and the FTSE100 climbed 0.36% aided by another move lower in Sterling.

Markets Today: An American Trilogy
Australian Markets Weekly: 15 August 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 15 August 2016

15 August 2016

Spare capacity in the labour market seems to have been an important part of the RBA’s recent decision to lower the cash rate further. The linkage is low wages growth – which reflects this spare capacity – and which, as a key determinant of prices, impacts on the RBA’s outlook for inflation.

Australian Markets Weekly: 15 August 2016
Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back

Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back

15 August 2016

The previous Friday’s strong US payrolls report has become a somewhat hazy memory after a much softer than expected retail sales report on Friday that challenged prevailing confidence that the US consumer has entered Q3 in rude health.

Markets Today: Two Steps Forwards, One Step Back
Markets Today: 1999

Markets Today: 1999

12 August 2016

Almost 24 hours after yesterday’s decision by the RBNZ to lower the OCR by 25bps and the NZD USD is almost exactly where it was before the rate announcement.

Markets Today: 1999
Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?

Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?

11 August 2016

In delivering only 25bps cut to the OCR and which was more than 100% discounted ahead of time and the RBNZ’s latest 90-day bill track only implying one more cut, the NZD has predictably bounced sharply. It up just over 1% as we go to press.

Markets Today: Is that all you’ve got, Graeme?
Markets Today: Relax

Markets Today: Relax

10 August 2016

The overnight session was neither strongly risk-on nor risk-off; the AUD has been testing higher levels overnight with the big dollar sold lower during the US session.

Markets Today: Relax
Markets Today: Breathe

Markets Today: Breathe

9 August 2016

Breathe was Prodigy’s bestselling album in the UK despite the fact that radio play was restricted to the evening shows and although it would be hard to make any link with the song lyrics and market events.

Markets Today: Breathe
Markets Today: Working Man

Markets Today: Working Man

8 August 2016

There wasn’t much not to like about Friday’s July US payrolls report, the 255k rise in headline payrolls enhanced by 18k worth of upward revision to May and June and meaning that well over half a million more Americans are in work compared to just two months ago.

Markets Today: Working Man
Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger

Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger

5 August 2016

It was pretty much all about the Bank of England overnight ahead of payrolls tonight. As my colleague from London Nick Parsons reminded us, there was the real potential for the BoE to over-promise and under-deliver, net GBP shorts according to IMM data at the greatest level of this series.

Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger
Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want

Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want

3 August 2016

It was a toss-up this morning between the Rolling Stones classic and “You Can’t Hold a Good Man Down” by James and Bobby Purify (et al), both in reference (or deference) to the performance of the Aussie dollar in the aftermath of yesterday’s RBA rate cut.

Markets Today: You can’t always get what you want
Australian Markets Weekly:  1 August 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 1 August 2016

2 August 2016

The market has continued to price toward the likelihood that the RBA will cut rates again at tomorrow’s Board meeting, pricing in this morning a 64% chance of an easing, with 36 of 47 economists surveyed by Reuters on Friday forecasting a cut this week.

Australian Markets Weekly:  1 August 2016
Markets Today: Take it easy

Markets Today: Take it easy

2 August 2016

Released overnight, the US ISM Manufacturing release for July was barely a miss, coming in at 52.6 against consensus of 53.0.

Markets Today: Take it easy
Markets Today: How deep is your growth?

Markets Today: How deep is your growth?

1 August 2016

Weaker than expected US economic growth for the June quarter after an underwhelming outcome from the Bank of Japan on Friday set the tone for markets on Friday and at the open today.

Markets Today: How deep is your growth?
Markets Today: Gimme Gimme Gimme (Stimulus)

Markets Today: Gimme Gimme Gimme (Stimulus)

29 July 2016

Gimme Gimme Gimme was ABBA’s most successful hit in Japan, reaching No.17 on the billboard charts in 1979. It might be time to dust that record off today ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting decision at around 12.45pm AEST.

Markets Today: Gimme Gimme Gimme (Stimulus)
Markets Today: Rumours

Markets Today: Rumours

28 July 2016

The revelation that the underlying CPI was not another repeat of the first quarter when growth was an anaemic 0.2% but pushed up this quarter to 0.5% had the market rethinking and repricing whether the RBA was indeed more likely than not to cut rates again next week.

Markets Today: Rumours
Markets Today: Suspicious minds

Markets Today: Suspicious minds

26 July 2016

After seven years without a hit, Elvis Presley reclaimed his title of “The King” following the release of Suspicious Minds.

Markets Today: Suspicious minds
Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week

Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week

25 July 2016

US equities indices edged a little bit higher on Friday despite mixed corporate earnings while European equities ended the day practically unchanged despite the fact that European Flash PMIs for July were better than expected.

Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week
Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer

Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer

22 July 2016

The ECB’s policy meeting has come and gone without any policy action, though none was expected. At 1.1025, the EUR sits where it was late yesterday in the wake of some intra-session ECB meeting volatility.

Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer
Markets Today: Feeling good

Markets Today: Feeling good

21 July 2016

As we are about to press the send button, the RBNZ has just released it economic update and although a dovish tone was expected, the NZD has dropped 25/30pips to around 0.6988.

Markets Today: Feeling good
Markets Today: Strange brew

Markets Today: Strange brew

20 July 2016

Yesterday’s RBA Minutes with its dovish take and concerns about the activity side of the economy saw the local rates market move to price in a higher above-50% probability of an August RBA move (from 59% to 63%).

Markets Today: Strange brew
Markets Today: Quiet times

Markets Today: Quiet times

19 July 2016

In a quiet session US and UK equity indices edged a little bit higher buoyed by technology and financial shares while European indices drifted lower weighted down by energy shares following a sharp drop in oil prices.

Markets Today: Quiet times
Markets Today: Crying Shame

Markets Today: Crying Shame

18 July 2016

News of the (now failed) attempted military coup attempt in Turkey started filtering though about half an hour before the US stock market close, too late to have much impact on cash indices which closed fairly flat but early enough to see the S&P500 futures lose 0.4% after the NYSE close

Markets Today: Crying Shame
Markets Today: I’m so tired

Markets Today: I’m so tired

14 July 2016

In 1968 John Lennon wrote this Beatles song after three weeks of meditation with Indian Gurus, equity markets have been on a tear for four days and now in a similar way they are also showing signs of fatigue.

Markets Today: I’m so tired
Markets Today: The only way is up

Markets Today: The only way is up

13 July 2016

Risk assets had another positive night boosted by the prospects of a new round of stimulus in some major economies and the removal of at least one source of UK political uncertainty.

Markets Today: The only way is up
Markets Today: 2 Become 1

Markets Today: 2 Become 1

12 July 2016

Anna Leadsom has stood down as a candidate for leadership of the UK Conservative Party, paving the way for Home Secretary Theresa May to be the next Prime Minister, expected to be formally installed Wednesday after PM Cameron’s resignation.

Markets Today: 2 Become 1
Markets Today: Career Opportunities

Markets Today: Career Opportunities

11 July 2016

he US non-farm payrolls headline rise of 287k comfortably exceeded expectations (180k) but wasn’t backed up by the subsidiary details in the report with the unemployment rate higher, small net downward revision to the prior two months payrolls and hourly earnings up just 0.1%.

Markets Today: Career Opportunities
Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)

Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)

8 July 2016

It was an eventful news day for the AUD yesterday, even if the currency was little changed, and is not breaking new ground this morning, S&P yesterday changing the outlook on Australia’s AAA rating from stable to negative.

Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)
Markets Today: Selling England by the pound

Markets Today: Selling England by the pound

7 July 2016

Genesis’ 1973 album laments the loss of English folk culture and increasing American influence. 43 years on, England can now have back as much of the former as it cares for, but has to hope it can look forward to even more of the latter.

Markets Today: Selling England by the pound
Markets Today: Low

Markets Today: Low

6 July 2016

Core global yields have made new record lows amid an increase in risk aversion following news that a number of UK asset managers led by Standard Life were suspending redemptions on their property funds.

Markets Today: Low
Markets Today: Too close to call

Markets Today: Too close to call

4 July 2016

The outcome from this weekend’s Australian election remains too close to call. This uncertainty and lack of a clear majority has had a mild negative influence on the AUD/USD at the open.

Markets Today: Too close to call
Markets Today: Waves

Markets Today: Waves

1 July 2016

As a BBC commentator described it this morning, providing it doesn’t violate the laws of thermodynamics, anything can happen inside the British Conservative Party.

Markets Today: Waves
Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place

Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place

29 June 2016

Whether it’s a near to end-quarter rebalancing or just some short-term perceived value after the knee-jerk post-Brexit sell off, risk appetite had something of a positive session overnight with equities and top-tier bond yields higher.

Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place
Markets Today: Another Pounding

Markets Today: Another Pounding

28 June 2016

Equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic ended the day sharply lower, the British Pound fell another 3.6% and demand for safe haven assets boosted gold and dragged core global yields lower.

Markets Today: Another Pounding
Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E

Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E

27 June 2016

Lows for the day on Friday in all things GBP and AUD and highs for the USD and US Treasury prices came early to mid-afternoon Australian time almost as soon as it became clear the UK had voted for Brexit.

Markets Today: D-I-V-O-R-C-E
Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over

Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over

24 June 2016

Despite stormy weather in London and the south east, turnout has been reported to be high and although markets appear to have ‘Remain ‘ as the most likely outcome, recent history suggests that voting outcomes don’t always end as expected.

Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over
The sharing economy

The sharing economy

23 June 2016

Alan Oster discusses the influence of the sharing economy and explores how fast it is growing and its impact on the business community.

The sharing economy
Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now

Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now

23 June 2016

Pink Floyd’s 1979 song featured on The Wall tells the story of a couple who have treated each other very badly yet are devastated at the prospect of their relationship ending. This seems somewhat appropriate with us now just 9 hours away from polling getting underway in the UK EU referendum.

Markets Today: Don’t Leave Me Now
Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow

Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow

22 June 2016

Ahead of Thursday’s UK referendum, Yellen’s testimony to the Senate banking committee was the second big event of the week. Unsurprisingly, however, we got a similar message to the one we got from last week’s FOMC.

Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow
Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?

Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?

21 June 2016

The risk-on mood that developed as Asia markets opened yesterday on the back of the weekend poll from the Sunday Mirror pointing to a swing back to the remain vote gathered more force overnight, especially in European markets.

Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016

20 June 2016

Brexit and local farm conditions too Thursday’s UK EU Referendum will occupy market attention this week. A poll being conducted by ComRes for the UK Sunday Mirror at the time news of the assassination of British MP Jo Cox hit the wires revealed a switch in voting favouring the remain vote. The percentage of those […]

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016
Markets Today: Thursday

Markets Today: Thursday

20 June 2016

Markets being what they are, last Thursday’s tragic news of the slaying of UK MP Jo Cox, campaigning on behalf of the ‘remain’ side in front of Thursday’s EU referendum, elicited a strong positive response in all things Sterling, as well as supporting risk sentiment more broadly.

Markets Today: Thursday
Markets Today: A night of two halves

Markets Today: A night of two halves

17 June 2016

Yesterday’s fall in the Nikkei and strengthening of the Yen on the back of BoJ inaction and heightened concerns around the outcome of the UK EU referendum set the tone to the early part of the overnight session.

Markets Today: A night of two halves
Markets Today: Take it easy

Markets Today: Take it easy

16 June 2016

The US Fed kept its policy rate unchanged (between 0.25% and 0.50%) as expected, however the tone of the statement and forecast revealed a more dovish stance.

Markets Today: Take it easy
Markets Today: Signs

Markets Today: Signs

15 June 2016

As US markets close and Asia opens this morning, further damage to sentiment has been relatively limited.

Markets Today: Signs
Markets Today: The Fear

Markets Today: The Fear

14 June 2016

Friday night, Sterling was hit hard soon after London had shut shop for the week, on the publication of an (internet) poll by ORB of over 2000 respondents for the UK Independent newspaper, showing a 55/45 split in favour of ‘Leave’.

Markets Today: The Fear
Markets Today: Low

Markets Today: Low

10 June 2016

Rebel One being BTMFJ who were reported to be on the verge of rescinding their JGB Primary Dealership and Rebel Two being Commerzbank, reported to be considering storing cash in vaults rather than pay the ECB for the privilege of depositing excess cash with them.

Markets Today: Low
Markets Today: Rebellion

Markets Today: Rebellion

9 June 2016

We are now seeing signs in other parts of the world of rebellion by private sector banks aimed at circumventing the deleterious effects of negative central bank policy rates and government bond yields.

Markets Today: Rebellion
Markets Today: Walking away

Markets Today: Walking away

7 June 2016

US equities ended day up between 0.5% and 0.65% with energy stocks leading the way on the back of gains in oil prices.

Markets Today: Walking away
Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!

Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!

6 June 2016

Looking at the spectrum of forecasts ahead of the release, the 38k print for May was 52k lower than the lowest forecast surveyed by Bloomberg while consensus was at 160k.

Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!
Markets Today: Keep the dream alive

Markets Today: Keep the dream alive

2 June 2016

The final May Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs were left unrevised at 51.5, while the US Manufacturing ISM headline popped a little higher to 51.3 from 50.8 (50.3 was forecast).

Markets Today: Keep the dream alive
Markets Today: Hesitant

Markets Today: Hesitant

1 June 2016

Markets ended the month of May in a cautious mood amid mixed US data and a Guardian poll that suggested Britain to be more in favour of leaving the EU.

Markets Today: Hesitant
Markets Today: Hold on

Markets Today: Hold on

31 May 2016

As far as the foreign exchange markets were concerned, the USD was a touch softer overnight after having made some gains in the Asia session yesterday.

Markets Today: Hold on
Australian Markets Weekly – 30 May 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 30 May 2016

30 May 2016

The past week has seen interest rate markets continue to receive warnings from various Fed speakers – including Fed Chair Yellen – that US interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months.

Australian Markets Weekly – 30 May 2016
Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps

Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps

30 May 2016

In her much awaited Harvard University appearance, Fed Chair Yellen endorsed recent Fed rhetoric, noting that it would be “appropriate” for the Fed to raise the Funds rate if economic growth picked up as expected and the labour market continued to improve.

Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps
Markets Today: Inch by inch

Markets Today: Inch by inch

26 May 2016

It’s been another night of measured markets with both European and US equities closing higher, US Treasury yields a little higher net on the day and the USD marking time. There has been a little more evident appetite for Sterling, while the Canadian dollar was also a little stronger, helped by higher oil prices and the Bank of Canada leaving rates on hold, as expected.

Markets Today: Inch by inch
Markets Today: Bullish Mood

Markets Today: Bullish Mood

25 May 2016

US and European equity indices had a solid night with gains in financial and technology shares leading the move higher. The USD was stronger against most other currencies although GBP was the outperformer. Meanwhile US Treasury yields ended the day higher along the curve.

Markets Today: Bullish Mood
Markets Today: Sailing

Markets Today: Sailing

24 May 2016

Markets have been generally drifting with FX, equity markets and bond yields trading in contained ranges. The short end of the US Treasury curve edged a little higher.

Markets Today: Sailing
Markets Today: Back to black

Markets Today: Back to black

23 May 2016

European and US equities ended the week in positive territory and the mild positive tone to the overnight session helped the S&P 500 move back to black for 2016.

Markets Today: Back to black
Markets Today: On the prowl

Markets Today: On the prowl

19 May 2016

It was the release this morning of the FOMC April Minutes that’s gotten the attention of the wires and a noticeable chunk of market reaction to boot in rates, currencies, equities and gold.

Markets Today: On the prowl
Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk

Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk

18 May 2016

US equities fell overnight and the US Treasury curve flattened to its lowest level since 2007 after solid data and hawkish Fed talk increased market’s expectations of US rate hikes.

Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk
Markets Today: Life’s a gas

Markets Today: Life’s a gas

17 May 2016

Be grateful for small mercies. It’s a good job this 1971 T.Rex classic popped into my head as I was alighting at Wynyard station this morning, or else you might have been subjected to the ultra-cringe-worthy 1968 Dolly Parton ditty, “I’ll oil well love you” (I kid you not).

Markets Today: Life’s a gas
Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016

16 May 2016

It was a quieter week for Australian markets after the previous week’s very large moves. The Australian dollar still ended the week lower, as markets continued to speculate that the RBA will follow up with another interest rate cut in the months ahead and as Chinese economic data disappointed.

Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016
Markets Today: China Matters

Markets Today: China Matters

13 May 2016

In a shock revelation, the Dallas Fed has published a note on its website saying that the impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades.

Markets Today: China Matters
Markets Today: No retail therapy

Markets Today: No retail therapy

12 May 2016

The rise in oil prices overnight were not enough to prevent retail driven decline in US equity markets. The US dollar was weaker across the board and a solid 10y US Treasury auction amid a cautious mood helped core global yields move lower.

Markets Today: No retail therapy
Markets Today: Kiwi

Markets Today: Kiwi

11 May 2016

The US Energy Information Agency revised up its forecasts for oil prices for this year and next, lifting its forecast for WTI for this year by nearly $6/bbl to $40.32 from $34.37.

Markets Today: Kiwi
Markets Today: Smash & Grab

Markets Today: Smash & Grab

4 May 2016

No, the title is not a summation of Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison’s first Budget handed down last night. Rather it looks to be the most apt description of market price action – in FX at least – apropos the smart overnight session reversal in the fortunes of the Japanese Yen and the Euro.

Markets Today: Smash & Grab
Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?

Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?

3 May 2016

While yesterday’s fall in the Nikkei, partly reflected a catch up move given Friday’s holiday in Japan, this negative sentiment spread throughout Asia with all markets excluding Thailand posting small decline for the day.

Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?
Markets Today: Debbie Downer

Markets Today: Debbie Downer

2 May 2016

The 2004 Saturday Night Live fictional character, recently brought back to life in song on Cortney Barnett's brilliant debut album, would have been in her element on Friday.

Markets Today: Debbie Downer
Markets Today: Bend me, shape me

Markets Today: Bend me, shape me

27 April 2016

While the market is very sensitive to the CPI and the AUD and rates markets might see an immediate knee-jerk reaction, the market is not hanging on this number as one that might swing the RBA into action or inaction at upcoming meetings.

Markets Today: Bend me, shape me
Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016

26 April 2016

Tomorrow’s CPI will be another low print but unlikely to sway the RBA into easing monetary policy given the continued resilience in the non-mining economy. NAB’s forecast for the March quarter CPI is for Australia’s official inflation rate to be 1.6% y/y (after 1.7% in Q4), the sixth quarter below the 2-3% official RBA target range.

Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016
Markets Today: When doves cry

Markets Today: When doves cry

22 April 2016

The AUD has flown back down with the 77 handle this morning, pulled back somewhat by a dip in oil prices for once, WTI down $0.59 to $43.60 and Brent off $0.91 to $44.89, the Aussie’s commodity cousins, the CAD, NOK, RUB and the NZD all lower this morning.

Markets Today: When doves cry
Markets Today: Distillate thrust

Markets Today: Distillate thrust

21 April 2016

Oil prices took another leg higher last night following a US Energy Information Administration report that showed a sharp decline in US distillate stockpiles.

Markets Today: Distillate thrust
Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle

Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle

20 April 2016

Broad USD dollar weakness and higher oil prices have boosted risk assets overnight with energy and material shares the outperformers in both Europe and the US.

Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle
Markets Today: No dice

Markets Today: No dice

18 April 2016

Regardless of whether an agreement yesterday by major producers to freeze oil production would have had any meaningful impact on oil prices beyond the psychological boost it might have provided.

Markets Today: No dice
Markets Today: The only way is up

Markets Today: The only way is up

14 April 2016

Risky assets have continued to benefit from an improvement in sentiment. Bank stocks have led the surge in equity markets and most commodities have also enjoyed some gains, despite of a pullback in oil prices.

Markets Today: The only way is up
Markets Today: Taking care of business

Markets Today: Taking care of business

13 April 2016

Yesterday’s NAB Business Survey bolted a stronger 76 handle on to the AUD, the currency finding support through the day and again overnight, trading this morning toward the top of its overnight range, currently at 0.7685/90, up 1.2%.

Markets Today: Taking care of business
Markets Today: Lack of conviction

Markets Today: Lack of conviction

12 April 2016

European markets ended the day in positive territory boosted by Italian banks following hopes of a government support package while in the US, equity indices erased early gains and ended the day marginally lower.

Markets Today: Lack of conviction
Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar

Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar

11 April 2016

A fairly uneventful offshore session on Friday saw US stocks recover some of Thursday’s losses, bond yields pushing back higher while the US dollar was softer across the board.

Markets Today: I (don’t) need a dollar
Markets Today: Send in the Clowns

Markets Today: Send in the Clowns

8 April 2016

Sorry, I couldn’t resist the title seeing as how Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker are all about to jump up on stage together.

Markets Today: Send in the Clowns
Markets Today: June is alive

Markets Today: June is alive

7 April 2016

An improvement in risk appetite has helped global equity markets recovered some grown overnight with the Nikkei a notable exception. FOMC minutes revealed an April hike was discussed, but a cautious approach appears to be well entrenched. A pick up in oil prices contributed to the positive move, but the strength in the yen continues to weigh on Japan’s equity market.

Markets Today: June is alive
Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night

Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night

6 April 2016

Local market’s finished up on Tuesday in a distinctly ‘risk-off’ frame of mind, and that sentiment has extended throughout the European and US sessions

Markets Today: Hard Day’s Night
Markets Today: Wait and see mode

Markets Today: Wait and see mode

5 April 2016

In what was a quiet night for markets the softness in oil prices spread into other commodities and it has weighted on the AUD and other commodity related currencies.

Markets Today: Wait and see mode
Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy

Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy

4 April 2016

There was nothing not to like about Friday’s US data deluge. Payrolls just beat expectations at 215k vs. 205k with trivial revisions.

Markets Today: Feelin’ Groovy
Markets Today: Handle with care

Markets Today: Handle with care

1 April 2016

It’s been a night of consolidation in the main as markets await the arrival of key data over the next 24 hours with Super Friday’s deluge.

Markets Today: Handle with care
Markets Today: Afterglow

Markets Today: Afterglow

31 March 2016

Equities and non-US dollar currencies continue to bask in the afterglow of Janet Yellen’s Tuesday night speech.

Markets Today: Afterglow
Markets Today: Easy does it

Markets Today: Easy does it

30 March 2016

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has reiterated her views that it is appropriate for the Fed to “proceed cautiously” in raising interest rates.

Markets Today: Easy does it
Markets Today: Drift away

Markets Today: Drift away

24 March 2016

The commodity currencies were sold lower overnight, with the AUD feeling the brunt of the selling.

Markets Today: Drift away
Markets Today: Night moves

Markets Today: Night moves

23 March 2016

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech yesterday came and went without any fanfare as far as AUD comment was concerned

Markets Today: Night moves
Australian Markets Weekly – 21 March 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 21 March 2016

21 March 2016

Labour market suggests RBA on hold but keep an eye on inflation expectations Markets again moving around sharply with a less aggressive Fed (two rate hikes now expected in 2016 versus four previously) seeing the US$ broadly weaker and $A stronger. Australian labour market data show slower trend employment growth in recent months, though some […]

Australian Markets Weekly – 21 March 2016
Markets Today: Kiwi dumped

Markets Today: Kiwi dumped

10 March 2016

This morning the RBNZ cut its policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% and it signal that further easing may be required.

Markets Today: Kiwi dumped
Markets Today: Take it easy

Markets Today: Take It Easy

7 March 2016

We weren’t alone on Friday thinking that the risks heading into the US employment report were for a disappointing headline non-farm payrolls print

Markets Today: Take it easy
Markets Today: Power trip

Markets Today: Power trip

4 March 2016

It has not been a massive night in terms of market direction, the Australian dollar again capturing interest and making some further net gains.

Markets Today: Power trip
Markets Today: ISM boost

Markets Today: ISM boost

2 March 2016

China’s decision to reduce the required reserve ratio on major banks (-50bps) set the tone in yesterday’s Asian session

Markets Today: ISM boost
Markets Today: Weasel words

Markets Today: Weasel words

29 February 2016

Plenty of official hand-wringing regarding downside risks to global growth and which was reflected in the communique issued on Saturday after the 2-day G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Shanghai.

Markets Today: Weasel words
FW: Markets Today: Back in black

FW: Markets Today: Back in black

25 February 2016

It was a session of two halves with a risk off during European session spilling into the first part of the New York sessio/

FW: Markets Today: Back in black
Markets Today: Carry on

Markets Today: Carry on

18 February 2016

It was something of a risk-on night with commodity and emerging market currencies back in favour for once.

Markets Today: Carry on
Markets Today: Rebound

Markets Today: Rebound

15 February 2016

European and US equity indices ended the week on a positive note, boosted by a rebound in bank stocks and a jump in oil prices.

Markets Today: Rebound
Markets Today:  Pushmi-pullyu

Markets Today: Pushmi-pullyu

11 February 2016

If we had to try and summarise the best part of three hours of testimony before Congress by Fed chair Janet Yellen in one sentence, it would be something like “Janet fails to go full dove”.

Markets Today:  Pushmi-pullyu
Markets Today: Carnage

Markets Today: Carnage

9 February 2016

Yeap, the heading says it all. We had a brutal price action overnight with risk assets hammered while safe haven assets were bid.

Markets Today: Carnage
Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life

Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life

5 February 2016

In the words of my BNZ colleague Jason Wong, not even strong words by ECB President Draghi and BOJ Governor Kuroda have been enough to talk down their currencies against the big dollar’s recent dip.

Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life
Markets Today: Stalled

Markets Today: Stalled

2 February 2016

Friday’s BoJ powered equity rally stalled overnight with disappointing data releases and fading hopes of output cuts in oil weighted down on sentiment.

Markets Today: Stalled
Markets Today: I walk the line

Markets Today: I walk the line

28 January 2016

The FOMC post meeting statement played a very straight bat, not locking themselves in to one course or the other as far as the March 17 meeting decision is concerned.

Markets Today: I walk the line
Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?

Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?

25 January 2016

Oil having been the main driver of most of the market price action of the past two weeks, it was Friday’s near 10% rebound that was the catalyst for much of Friday’s retracements.

Markets Today: “Irrational” exuberance?
Markets Today: Runaway train

Markets Today: Runaway train

21 January 2016

Another volatile night my friends. Well that was as far as equity markets are concerned the E600 European index down a cool 3.2%.

Markets Today: Runaway train
Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)

Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)

20 January 2016

Flipping through the Eagles song list on the way in, none of the many great Glenn Frey-penned tracks struck me as particularly applicable titles to describe overnight markets.

Markets Today: Dead cat bounce(s)
Markets Today: Super Tuesday

Markets Today: Super Tuesday

19 January 2016

With US markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day, the relatively quiet overnight session is probably not reflective of the current collective mood.

Markets Today: Super Tuesday
Markets Today: Groundhog day

Markets Today: Groundhog day

18 January 2016

In a redux of the previous Friday, slumping oil prices were the primary catalyst for the latest pressure on commodity and emerging market currencies and global risk assets, alongside safe-haven support for Treasuries.

Markets Today: Groundhog day
Markets Today: Where are we now?

Markets Today: Where are we now?

15 January 2016

Today’s title is our final tribute to the late musical genius, David Bowie. Where are we are now? Is the first single from David Bowie’s 25th album released on the morning of his sixty-sixth birthday in 2013.

Markets Today: Where are we now?
Markets Today: Dollar days

Markets Today: Dollar days

14 January 2016

Less than hard-core Bowie aficionados can be forgiven for not immediately humming this track, which features on the Blackstar album released two days before his untimely death.

Markets Today: Dollar days
Markets Today: This is not America

Markets Today: This is not America

13 January 2016

‘Under Pressure’ was a particularly apt title to yesterday’s daily from my colleague Rodrigo by way of homage to the late great David Bowie.

Markets Today: This is not America
Markets Today: Under Pressure

Markets Today: Under Pressure

12 January 2016

Today's title is not only fitting to what has transpired in markets over the past 24 hrs, but it also serves as a tribute to the passing of a music legend.

Markets Today: Under Pressure
Markets Today: Riders on the storm

Markets Today: Riders on the storm

11 January 2016

On another day, news of a near 300k rise in US payrolls, still quite benign earnings growth and a steady but near-full employment unemployment rate (5.0%), might have sent equities and the dollar to the moon and bond yield higher.

Markets Today: Riders on the storm
Markets Today: Asian contagion (again)

Markets Today: Asian contagion (again)

8 January 2016

Similar themes from yesterday are at play today– China in the spotlight with its devaluing currency and equity market shenanigans; lower commodity prices and global equity markets tumbling; and a flight to the safety of the Yen.

Markets Today: Asian contagion (again)
2015 Year in Review: Capital Financing

2015 Year in Review: Capital Financing

7 January 2016

EGM Capital Financing, Steve Lambert, discusses two common themes that were present over the past 12 months - Innovation and volatility. It seems that 2015 saw more firsts in the market while at the same time it seeemed markets were closing just as quickly as they opened.

2015 Year in Review: Capital Financing
Markets Today: An ugly start to the year

Markets Today: An ugly start to the year

5 January 2016

The first day of trading for many markets was a memorable one, with some big falls in equity markets. With the plunge in risk appetite, the Yen was the best performing currency

Markets Today: An ugly start to the year
Markets Today: Bring it on

Markets Today: Bring it on

4 January 2016

Investors ended 2015 in a defensive stance. Following the risk aversion tone seen in the previous day, equity markets were sold on Thursday while core global bonds benefited from a safe haven bid.

Markets Today: Bring it on
Mini Markets Today – The Ace of Spades

Mini Markets Today – The Ace of Spades

30 December 2015

Some argue that there can’t be too many better analogies to predicting markets than playing cards or rolling dice, so the late Lemmy’s classic The Ace of Spades from the band Motörhead seems very apt this morning.

Mini Markets Today – The Ace of Spades
Markets Today: Back to black

Markets Today: Back to Black

24 December 2015

Heading into Wednesday’s New York close, the S&P 500 is showing a gain of about 1.2% on the day, which equates to a rise of just 0.2% year to date.

Markets Today: Back to black
Markets Today: Sideways

Markets Today: Sideways

23 December 2015

Moves in oil prices remain the main driver for markets amid a decline in trading volumes ahead of the Christmas holiday break.

Markets Today: Sideways
Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight

Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight

22 December 2015

Spanish politics has been a watch point for markets since the weekend with the national election not producing a clear majority for any one party and not an obvious coalition likely to be formed, according to Spanish political commentators.

Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight
Market’s today: Freaky Friday

Market’s today: Freaky Friday

21 December 2015

Friday was one of the four ‘triple witching’ occasions of 2015 (expiration of stock index futures, index options and individual share options) –sometimes known as freaky Friday.

Market’s today: Freaky Friday
Markets Today:  Zirp Rip

Markets Today: Zirp Rip

17 December 2015

Nine and a half years on from the last Fed rate hike and seven years on from when interest rates were first set at the effective zero lower bound (0-0.25%) the Fed has seen fit to sound the death knell for ZIRP, lifting the target rate for the fed funds rate to a range of 0.25-0.5%.

Markets Today:  Zirp Rip
Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’

Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’

16 December 2015

Unlike the rest of us who are now waiting to see what Janet Yellen delivers this time tomorrow, RBA Governor Governor Glenn Stevens has gone early, the AFR publishing its now traditional end-of-year interview with him overnight.

Markets Today: ‘I’m Waiting For The (Wo)Man’
Markets Today: Liquidity Trap

Markets Today: Liquidity Trap

14 December 2015

Friday night session saw a surge in risk aversion with sharp losses in equity indices, the USD underperformed against other majors while safe haven demand pushed core global yields lower.

Markets Today: Liquidity Trap
Markets Today: Slip sliding away

Markets Today: Slip sliding away

11 December 2015

A lot of the attention overnight remained centred on the commodity space with oil prices down another 1%, Brent crude at $39.70, down 0.97%.

Markets Today: Slip sliding away
Markets Today: Squeezed

Markets Today: Squeezed

10 December 2015

As we are about to press the send bottom, the RBNZ has cut its key rate to 2.50% from 2.75%. In the statement the RBNZ has noted that it expects to reach its inflation goal at current policy settings and that the rise in the exchange rate is unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate.

Markets Today: Squeezed
Markets Today: In retreat

Markets Today: In Retreat

9 December 2015

The AUDUSD dipped below the 72c mark overnight amid the ongoing weakness in oil and bulk commodities.

Markets Today: In retreat
Markets Today: More commodity carnage

Markets Today: More commodity carnage

8 December 2015

Commodities were front and centre of market attention overnight, with oil prices taking another sizeable hit, both WTI and Brent crude down between 5-6% in the wake of OPEC officially abandoning its 30mb target late last week.

Markets Today: More commodity carnage
Markets Today: A Done Deal

Markets Today: A Done Deal

7 December 2015

The US employment report virtually matched expectations (NFP +211k, unemployment steady at 5%) and effectively confirms a Fed lift-off in two weeks’ time is a done deal.

Markets Today: A Done Deal
Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive

Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive

3 December 2015

“Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals,” Fed Chair Yellen told the Economic Club of Washington overnight.

Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive
Markets Today: Black Friday

Markets Today: Black Friday

27 November 2015

In the 1975 Steely Dan classic, the song Black Friday refers to a 24 September 1869 ploy by a group of wealthy US investors to corner the gold market and drive the price higher, but who were subsequently foiled when the government got wind and released $4 million worth of gold onto the market.

Markets Today: Black Friday
Markets Today: It’s all relative

Markets Today: It’s all relative

26 November 2015

It’s 100 years ago today that Albert Einstein formally presented the results of his eight year study into gravity – the general theory of relativity. Good on you Albert.

Markets Today: It’s all relative
Today’s Market Update: Do what we must

Today’s Market Update: Do what we must

23 November 2015

Friday’s session was hallmarked by comments from ECB President Draghi, which kept markets on the scent for a range of easing measures at next week’s hotly-anticipated meeting.

Today’s Market Update: Do what we must
Markets Today: No Copper Bottom

Markets Today: No Copper Bottom

18 November 2015

It is a bit odd coming in to see hard commodity prices under the pump (including a $2 drop in iron ore prices, new cycle lows for copper and oil off another buck) but the AUD at the top of the G10 FX leader board.

Markets Today: No Copper Bottom
Markets Today: Markets remain resilient

Markets Today: Markets remain resilient

17 November 2015

In a relatively quiet session, the impact from the Paris attacks on global markets has been fairly muted. The USD is stronger against all G10 currencies with the euro and NZD sitting at the bottom of the leader board.

Markets Today: Markets remain resilient
Australian Markets Weekly: A cyclical turn in unemployment?

Australian Markets Weekly: A cyclical turn in unemployment?

16 November 2015

We review last week’s stunning Australian labour market data. While we don’t believe the large moves in either the employment or unemployment rate, we believe the signals - that employment is strengthening (driven by NSW and importantly an improving trend for QLD)

Australian Markets Weekly: A cyclical turn in unemployment?
Markets Today: Sterling effort

Markets Today: Sterling effort

12 November 2015

Lots of interest overnight whether ECB President Mario Draghi would throw more fuel onto the ECB stimulus expectation fire, schedule to speak at a BoE sponsored open forum on Financial Market Reform event in London.

Markets Today: Sterling effort
Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger

Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger

11 November 2015

Not a big night as far as market movements are concerned, one extension of a theme being the continued ascendancy of the big dollar that has gained a little more momentum, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.12%.

Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger
Markets Today: Fado fading?

Markets Today: Fado fading?

10 November 2015

A night of consolidation for markets with inconsequential data not pushing markets one way or the other.

Markets Today: Fado fading?
Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom

Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom

9 November 2015

Friday’s US payrolls report delivered across-the-board strength and markets responded to script, the dollar and bond yields both sharply higher but equity markets not sure whether to embrace the more positive US growth signals or fear the seemingly near-inevitably of December Fed ‘lift-off’.

Markets Today: US jobs data boom, China trade data gloom
Markets Today: On standby

Markets Today: On standby

6 November 2015

Not a massive session as far as new market direction was concerned overnight ahead of payrolls tonight.

Markets Today: On standby
Markets Today: Front and centre

Markets Today: Front and centre

5 November 2015

Markets took their cue from Fed Chair Janet Yellen overnight, testifying before the US House Financial Services Committee on bank regulation.

Markets Today: Front and centre
Markets Today: Put It All On ‘Scope’

Markets Today: Put It All On ‘Scope’

4 November 2015

A rising commodities tide lifted all boats overnight, with an improved tone in risk evident in equities, bonds, and currencies. The AUD outperformed after the RBA stood pat yesterday. It is a very busy day ahead.

Markets Today: Put It All On ‘Scope’
Australian Markets Weekly: A few charts for the RBA Board to ponder

Australian Markets Weekly: A few charts for the RBA Board to ponder

3 November 2015

This week in Australia is of course all about the RBA Board meeting on Tuesday and the November Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday. Our special focus this week is on a number of charts showing that the RBA has already eased pro-cyclically and the non-mining economy is improving.

Australian Markets Weekly: A few charts for the RBA Board to ponder
Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin

Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin

2 November 2015

Unlike Wednesday and Thursday morning (post FOMC, RBNZ), Friday was not a big night for markets and following the BoJ’s earlier ‘no change’. End of month rebalancing flows appeared to dominate price action, meaning a slightly softer US dollar (DXY -0.35%, BBDXY -0.42%).

Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin
Markets Today: On the road again

Markets Today: On the road again

30 October 2015

With the echo of the FOMC still ringing in its ear, the market re-priced the odds of the Fed moving in December, lifting the probability to a 50/50 call, those odds having been tracking at a less than one in three chance before the FOMC.

Markets Today: On the road again
Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?

Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?

29 October 2015

Global concerns and the potential negative feedback loop to the US economy and inflation have been dialled down. At the same, concerns about the strength of the labour market have been somewhat dialled up, the Fed noting that “the pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady”.

Markets Today: Mission Accomplished or still Mission Impossible?
Today’s Market Update: What to buy

Today’s Market Update: What to buy

28 October 2015

The US dollar sits near the top of the currency leader board this morning, retaining its composure, though more by default of weakness elsewhere.

Today’s Market Update: What to buy
Markets Today: The countdown

Markets Today: The countdown

27 October 2015

It was a contained night for markets, equities a little heavy for no apparent reason other than perhaps some nerves ahead of Thursday morning’s FOMC announcement.

Markets Today: The countdown
Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off

Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off

26 October 2015

Watching the tears streaming down the face of Pumas head coach Daniel Hourcade a couple of hours ago, ‘Don’t Cry For Me Argentine’ was the obvious title for today’s missive, but it’s already looking a little overused in the Twitter-sphere.

Markets Today: Risk on but AUD off
Markets Today: Easy

Markets Today: Easy

23 October 2015

ECB President Draghi stepped up to the plate last night, setting equity markets alight and scuttling the EUR. Draghi effectively preannounced further easing in policy at its 3 December meeting.

Markets Today: Easy
Markets Today: A bit of a yawner

Markets Today: A bit of a yawner

21 October 2015

The NZD at least has shown some movement and to some surprise, the Canadian dollar sits at the top of the G10 FX leader-board.

Markets Today: A bit of a yawner
Markets Today: Friday on my mind

Markets Today: Friday on my mind

20 October 2015

Though there isn’t too much to say about last night’s markets and after the local market yesterday was, within 15 minutes of the China data, already checking out the coming weekend’s weather forecast.

Markets Today: Friday on my mind
Australian Markets Weekly: Independent interest rate increases

Australian Markets Weekly: Independent interest rate increases

19 October 2015

In this weekly, we consider the implications for monetary policy of last week’s independent mortgage rate increases by Westpac. RBA expected to watch how other intermediaries respond to the move and to assess how the move impacts the economy.

Australian Markets Weekly: Independent interest rate increases
Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy

Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy

19 October 2015

Friday was largely a lower beta replica of Thursday and where, recall, the higher US core CPI and further drop in US jobless claims were the key market drivers. Momentum carried though to Friday’s session, and wasn’t undermined by US industrial/manufacturing production data that was soft.

Markets Today: Southern Hemisphere Supremacy
Markets Today: Core, Blimey

Markets Today: Core, Blimey

16 October 2015

Much of Wednesday’s market price action in currencies, equities and bonds has been reversed. The exceptions here are the commodity currency trio of NZD, CAD and AUD which for the most part are continuing to resist the allure of a weaker US dollar.

Markets Today: Core, Blimey
Markets Today: No quarter

Markets Today: No quarter

15 October 2015

Led Zeppelin (1973) for the benefit of a generation younger than this scribe (i.e. most of you).

Markets Today: No quarter
Markets Today: From hero to zero

Markets Today: From hero to zero

14 October 2015

In the five days through this Monday, the AUD had been the best performing major currency, rallying by just shy of 4% against the US dollar.

Markets Today: From hero to zero
Australian Markets Weekly:  Australia = ∑ many cycles

Australian Markets Weekly: Australia = ∑ many cycles

12 October 2015

In this weekly we examine through the lens of job advertisements, the net effect for the labour market – and by implication the broader economy – of the many conflicting cycles currently impacting the evolution of the Australian economy.

Australian Markets Weekly:  Australia = ∑ many cycles
Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style

Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style

12 October 2015

AUD was the best performing G10 currency on Friday, and GBP the worse, the latter initially suffering on some dismal UK trade figures and which contrast starkly with the Eurozone’s current account surplus status.

Markets Today: Bungee jumping – Asia EM style
Markets Today: A minute of your time

Markets Today: A minute of your time

9 October 2015

The Sep FOMC minutes came and went and when all is said and done, it has not clarified whether the Fed is likely to be hiking before year end or later.

Markets Today: A minute of your time
Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)

Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)

7 October 2015

The IMF is hogging the news headlines overnight, though markets have long since given up seeing much information value in the now customary 6-monthly downward revisions to its global and country-specific growth forecasts.

Markets Today: Don’t let me down (well not by much)
Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets

Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets

6 October 2015

It was a night for risk assets again with the S&P closing out its fifth day of gains, up another 1.85% with EM and European equities also performing well, the Eurostoxx 600 index up a cool 3.01%, with a sea of green gains across this writer’s screen.

Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets
Markets Today: There is something to see here

Markets Today: There is something to see here

5 October 2015

Anyone looking for redeeming features in Friday’s soft US payrolls report was reduced to noting that the weakness in average earnings (flat on the month and unchanged at 2.2% y/y) may have been down to the fact that the Sep 15 mid-month pay day was excluded from the calculation

Markets Today: There is something to see here
Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça

Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça

2 October 2015

At the start of a new quarter, markets are struggling for a clear frame of reference, not yet sure whether bad economic news is good news for risk if it keeps the Fed at bay for longer, or is bad news because it serves to amplify concerns about the overall health of the global economy.

Markets Today: Comme Ci Comme Ça
Markets Today: Recession, what recession?

Markets Today: Recession, what recession?

1 October 2015

The US ADP employment report last night printed +200k, seemingly confirming that the US economy continues to create more than enough jobs each month to keep the unemployment rate trending down to – and through – the so-called NAIRU rate (below which further labour market strength risks accelerating inflation)

Markets Today: Recession, what recession?
Markets Today: Uneasy calm

Markets Today: Uneasy calm

30 September 2015

A quieter night overnight, with no large moves, but no strong reversals either. US equities eeked out fractional gains, while Europe was still weak. Yields were a little lower and currencies in G10 for the most part flat. Oil did rise and Glencore, yesterday’s prophet of doom, bounced 17%.

Markets Today: Uneasy calm
Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth

Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth

28 September 2015

In this weekly update we tease out some implications of slower population growth that’s been evident now for the past two years, with a further step down reported by the Australian Statistician last week.

Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth
Markets Today: A big week

Markets Today: A big week

28 September 2015

Friday’s tone was set by Fed Chair Yellen, early in the Sydney session. In this, she backed up the Fed speakers post the FOMC, which have reiterated that the Fed are looking to raise interest rates this year.

Markets Today: A big week
Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again

Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again

25 September 2015

Another choppy night of trading with hints of risk-off still dogging equity markets and supporting bond markets, while commodities were non-directional with copper down marginally but other metals mostly rose, including the yellow metal.

Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again
Markets Today: Mixed emotions

Markets Today: Mixed emotions

24 September 2015

It’s been a night of mixed emotions as far as risk sentiment is concerned. It was not helped initially by yesterday’s weaker China manufacturing reading, and the quickly emerging shadow of Volkswagen’s issues.

Markets Today: Mixed emotions
Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses

Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses

23 September 2015

It’s a bit of pick and mix for explanations regarding market moves in the last 24 hours. There has been no top tier economic data, no new speeches, or surprises.

Markets Today: Pick and mix excuses
Markets Today: Scaring the Horses

Markets Today: Scaring the Horses

21 September 2015

Not sure this was the reaction the Fed were looking for when they decided to pause and give a shout out to the struggling EM economies and global economic risks.

Markets Today: Scaring the Horses
Markets Today:  Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled

Markets Today: Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled

18 September 2015

The time arrived but the Fed couldn’t bring itself to raise rates for the first time since the Financial Crisis. In a hugely anticipated FOMC meeting, the market had priced just over a quarter percent chance of a hike, and just under 50% of economists expected a move, but they remained on hold.

Markets Today:  Postponded, lowered: Not cancelled
Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…

Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…

17 September 2015

Another relatively calm and comfortable session heading into the FOMC meeting. With markets and economists split on the outcome, something will move if the Fed does, or it doesn’t. So enjoy the quiet day today, ahead of tomorrow.

Markets Today: Drum Roll Please…
Markets Today: Do It Already

Markets Today: Do It Already

16 September 2015

Do It Already is the headline of a Bloomberg article today, but mirrors the sentiment in articles across the press and the discussions on our own floor. Markets are like rabbits in spotlights, uncertain as to which way to shift, just in case there is a move by the Fed.

Markets Today: Do It Already
Markets Today: Where is everybody?

Markets Today: Where is everybody?

15 September 2015

There is a flurry of opinions, newsflow, chatter and speculation about the Fed this week, but at the end of the day, there isn’t much that is new to report for markets. Still waiting for the FOMC.

Markets Today: Where is everybody?
Markets Today: More Waiting

Markets Today: More Waiting

14 September 2015

It’s been relatively quiet from Friday and likely to stay that way for a few more days yet. The news flow has been limited and what there has been, has been clouded by one-offs.

Markets Today: More Waiting
Markets Today: Stiff upper lip

Markets Today: Stiff upper lip

11 September 2015

It was the makings of a risk-on mood for markets overnight and a night when the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was hanging tough about the healthy outlook for the UK economy and still harbouring thoughts of a UK rate rise coming into focus in the first part of next year.

Markets Today: Stiff upper lip
Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?

Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?

10 September 2015

The RBNZ has just delivered a universally expected 25-point cut to the OCR (to 2.75%) and says both that some further easing seems likely and that further currency deprecation is appropriate. This takes a bite out of pre-RBNZ NZD strength.

Markets Today: Is the Fed now (i)Pencil dependent?
NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2015

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2015

9 September 2015

Australian's are feeling less anxious underpinned by lower stress associated with retirement funding, cost of living, job security and health. And for the first time, NAB’s Consumer Anxiety report sheds light on spending behaviours across states.

NAB Quarterly Australian Consumer Anxiety Index – Q3 2015
Markets Today: Spring has sprung

Markets Today: Spring has sprung

9 September 2015

The global financial markets are breathing a sigh of relief and enjoying the advent of Spring here in the Southern Hemisphere. Happy days: the Fed may wait a little while before raising rates and China seems to have everything sorted.

Markets Today: Spring has sprung
Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers

Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers

7 September 2015

In this Weekly, we are enclosing a recent research piece from our Senior Currency Strategist Emma Lawson on the commodities that are (and which will be) important drivers of the Australian dollar, including the outlook. We also preview local data and RBA speeches for the week ahead.

Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers
Markets Today: (Fed) fright night

Markets Today: (Fed) fright night

7 September 2015

In the wake Friday’s US employment report that overall could be judged to be consistent with the FOMC’s stated desire to see ‘some further improvement in the labor market’, risk markets took fresh fright.

Markets Today: (Fed) fright night
Markets Today: Let’s get loud

Markets Today: Let’s get loud

4 September 2015

The Euro is weaker this morning and the USD a touch stronger thanks to ECB President Draghi banging the drum about QE, the ECB staff downgrading their Euro-zone growth and inflation forecasts and a pretty comforting slug of US data.

Markets Today: Let’s get loud
Markets Today: Joyride

Markets Today: Joyride

3 September 2015

A more measured night. Shanghai finished down smalls yesterday (-0.2%) ahead of a four day long weekend to mark China’s victory in WWII and while European bourses had something of a see-saw night closed higher.

Markets Today: Joyride
Markets Today: The Merry Go Around

Markets Today: The Merry Go Around

2 September 2015

Things aren’t really getting better. The circular theme of markets continues, with equities weakening, weighing on broader risk, weighing on currencies, weighing on equities. And so it goes. While the Fed waits to decide to raise rates, this is not helping the global markets.

Markets Today: The Merry Go Around
Markets Today: Would I lie to you

Markets Today: Would I lie to you

1 September 2015

Equity markets harboured something of a defensive tone, but the oil market kicked higher again on the little to no fundamental news, signs of a classic short squeeze.

Markets Today: Would I lie to you
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

31 August 2015

The RBA Board is sure to leave the cash rate at 2% on Tuesday and their Statement is likely to again signal a very modest easing bias. Absolutely no intent, but nonetheless an acknowledgement that if needed they still have 200bps of interest rates to play with.

Australian Markets Weekly
Markets Today: Not much the wiser

Markets Today: Not much the wiser

31 August 2015

European and U.S markets on Friday failed to key off the 4.82% rise in the Shanghai Composite, in contrast to Thursday. The proximity to the weekend Jackson Hole talk-fest looks to have been a factor keeping trading subdued.

Markets Today: Not much the wiser
Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)

Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)

28 August 2015

In the immortal words of Johnny Cash (singing) “I ‘m going to Jackson…” Nope, can’t do it justice, although Ray (MT’s co-author) is definitely having an influence on me. But we do see the central bankers heading to Jackson Hole (JH)

Markets Today: I’m going to Jackson (Hole)
Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty

Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty

27 August 2015

Difficult huh? You thought you knew which direction this was all going? After big moves there can often be big reversals. It doesn’t mean that the underlying issue is resolved but rather is often a factor of positioning, liquidity and uncertainty. We have a jumble of all three going on.

Markets Today: Positioning, liquidity, uncertainty
Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”

Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”

25 August 2015

Feeding off Monday’s 8.5%plunge in the Shanghai index and not much else, US stock markets have just closed with the S&P500 down 3.92%, the NASDAQ -3.81% and the Dow 3.56%. This masks much more extreme intraday volatility and which saw indices down more than 5% earlier in the US session.

Markets Today: “Oh What A Night”
Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest

Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest

24 August 2015

The Economist this week carries a topical article on commodities, “Goodbye to all that: a decade of binging on raw materials may leave an even longer hangover”, outlining the pressure on producers now from declining prices.

Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest
Markets Today: Lightning bolts

Markets Today: Lightning bolts

24 August 2015

Despite the best efforts of policy makers of late to downplay the significance of the first Fed rate rise relative to what happens after that, global markets remain in the midst of rate rise ructions.

Markets Today: Lightning bolts
Markets Today: US data nonchalance

Markets Today: US data nonchalance

18 August 2015

News wise, it has actually been quite an eventful night – tragically so in Thailand where a bomb blast in the centre of Bangkok during Monday’s evening rush hour is reported to have killed least 19 people and injured more than 120.

Markets Today: US data nonchalance
Australian Markets Weekly: More on the employment conundrum

Australian Markets Weekly: More on the employment conundrum

17 August 2015

Noteworthy developments last week from the RBA, were: (i) the Deputy Governor attribute most of the recent increase in Australian house prices to an increase in land prices; and (ii) Assistant Governor Chris Kent add the composition of recent Australian growth (and possible mismeasurement issues for services growth) to the list of explanations as to why Australian employment and unemployment outcomes had outperformed expectations despite as expected relatively slow GDP growth.

Australian Markets Weekly: More on the employment conundrum
Markets Today: So last week

Markets Today: So last week

17 August 2015

An uneventful end to the week on Friday but one where mild upside surprises in US industrial production and PPI helped deliver slightly higher US treasury yields out to 10 years and a marginally firmer dollar.

Markets Today: So last week
Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing

Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing

14 August 2015

Further weakness in oil prices, a more settled Chinese renminbi and a solid US July retail sales report caught the market’s attention overnight. News of disruption to the major Chinese port of Tianjin after the explosion Wednesday has not so far affected the outlook for iron ore prices too much.

Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing
Markets Today: Renminbi Me

Markets Today: Renminbi Me

13 August 2015

It’s getting interesting. And it is likely to remain that way for a little while yet. China’s move to a more market orientated currency is causing volatility and uncertainty and it might take a while until there is clarity.

Markets Today: Renminbi Me
Markets Today: Restorative or War?

Markets Today: Restorative or War?

12 August 2015

Markets are a little wary of the implications of China’s devaluation yesterday, combine that with uncertainty around the Fed’s upcoming interest rate hike and mix in Northern Hemisphere summer liquidity and you have a slightly uneasy, conflicting set of market moves overnight.

Markets Today: Restorative or War?
Markets Today: T-38 and counting

Markets Today: T-38 and counting

11 August 2015

With just over a month to go until the Sep 18 FOMC meeting announcement, Fed speakers remain right under the spotlight. Last night we heard from two, Denis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed President and voter and Stanley Fischer, no 2 at the Fed each with their own perspective.

Markets Today: T-38 and counting
Australian Markets Weekly: Something for everyone

Australian Markets Weekly: Something for everyone

10 August 2015

This week we attempt to interpret the latest developments in the large and complex range of conflicting influences impacting on the Australian economy and financial markets. It’s fair to say there is something for everyone in the latest data and policy pronouncements.

Australian Markets Weekly: Something for everyone
Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race

Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race

7 August 2015

Interest overnight in what the BoE Governor had to say after their meeting and how “hawkish” he might be, focus of course also in their forecasts in the latest quarterly Inflation Report.

Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race
Markets Today: Walking on sunshine

Markets Today: Walking on sunshine

6 August 2015

Anglo-American pop band Katrina and the Waves - Walking on Sunshine - is 30 years old this year and the rights to the song were sold to Bertelsmann last night for a cool £10mn. The song still generates over £1mn. a year in royalties and endorsements.

Markets Today: Walking on sunshine
Markets Today: Where you go, I follow

Markets Today: Where you go, I follow

4 August 2015

Oil took centre stage last night with West Texas Intermediate down 3.8% to $45.33/bbl and Brent crude down a cool 5.0% to $49.60, WTI the lowest since March 19 and Brent below $50/bbl for the first time since January when oil selling was at its most intense.

Markets Today: Where you go, I follow
Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA

Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA

3 August 2015

Event risk aplenty this week with the RBA August Board meeting tomorrow, Friday’s RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) and key economy reports. Among those data points, the most market sensitive is tomorrow’s retail sales along with a wider trade deficit.

Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA
Markets Today: ECI Friday

Markets Today: ECI Friday

3 August 2015

Most of Friday’s market price action emanated from the US Q2 Employment Cost Index, which at just +0.2% Q/Q (not annualised) was the lowest quarterly change since records began in 1996. The market was looking for +0.6% after +0.7% in Q1.

Markets Today: ECI Friday
Markets Today: So So

Markets Today: So So

30 July 2015

Two words, both beginning with ‘so’ - solid and some - marked the FOMC statement out as very subtly more hawkish than its recent predecessors.

Markets Today: So So
Markets Today: Not yet, but soon

Markets Today: Not yet, but soon

29 July 2015

Sitting, waiting for the Fed, in summer markets. That pretty much characterises the last day, which was surprising after the angst of the prior period.

Markets Today: Not yet, but soon
Markets Today: From Greece to China

Markets Today: From Greece to China

28 July 2015

Very much a risk-off night for markets with equities and some commodities taking the brunt after Chinese stocks lurched lower in afternoon trade to finish down an eye-glazing 8½% on the day. A year ago, the Shanghai composite was 2,177; yesterday it closed at 3,752.

Markets Today: From Greece to China
Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper

Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper

24 July 2015

It’s been a night again where the market has not had to be besotted with global geo-politics such as Greece and has been able to focus on the flow of data and more reports out of the US earnings season.

Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper
Markets Today: Relative calm restored

Markets Today: Relative calm restored

20 July 2015

Friday was pretty quiet, in FX especially, after US CPI data failed to surprise, following a slow Asia session where activity was constrained by end-of-Ramadan holidays in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Gold was one of the biggest movers on the night, -$11.25 to a new 5-year low of $1134.14

Markets Today: Relative calm restored
Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece

Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece

17 July 2015

Not big moves on the currency front overnight, though the USD was somewhat stronger as the ECB announced that it had turned on the liquidity spigot for Greece again and what data there was for the US was added a little more incremental evidence the economy is making further progress.

Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece
Markets Today:  Guilt by association

Markets Today: Guilt by association

16 July 2015

News wise, nothing bad has happened in or to Australia since we went home last night. Yet the AUD sits almost a full cent lower than where we left it.

Markets Today:  Guilt by association
Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking

Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking

15 July 2015

Back to our day jobs, with a reprieve on being political or equity analysts, we can return to the global economy. Markets also chose to ignore the after-party cleaning up in Greece, to focus on central bank speak – both actual and what is to come.

Markets Today: The sound of central banks talking
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey

13 July 2015

After a drawn out sequence of EuroGroup, EU Leaders and side meetings through last week, the EU Leaders have been meeting overnight in another drawn out and, at times, acrimonious attempt to put together a deal that would result in a third bailout package and keep Greece in the Euro.

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey
Markets Today: Take it or leave it

Markets Today: Take it or leave it

13 July 2015

According to the Guardian’s European correspondent, ‘extensive mental waterboarding’ is how one official described the rough ride being given to Greek PM Alex Tsipras by EU President Donald Tusk, German chancellor Merkel and French President Françoise Hollande.

Markets Today: Take it or leave it
Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC

Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC

9 July 2015

While being glued to the long running soap opera of the Greek debt situation, there is another, more mini-series like, show going on in the East. And like Netflix versus NBC (who shows Days of our Lives) it has crept up and has captured everyone’s attention.

Markets Today: Netflix vs NBC
Markets Today: More homework needed

Markets Today: More homework needed

8 July 2015

Markets were disappointed by the lack of progress in Greece overnight; albeit they should be used to that by now. It did lead to a big drop in European yields and equity market, EUR also underperformed for much of the day.

Markets Today: More homework needed
Podcast: Greece Referendum Fallout

Podcast: Greece Referendum Fallout

6 July 2015

In this special edition podcast, Peter Jolly, NAB Global Head of Research, and Peter Hartley, NAB Business Markets - Foreign Exchange, discuss the latest developments in the Greece referendum fallout.

Podcast: Greece Referendum Fallout
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, China, RBA and the Labour Market

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, China, RBA and the Labour Market

6 July 2015

This week we look at: the Greek vote; recent developments in Chinese equity markets; the RBA’s July Board meeting; and upcoming important Australian labour market releases for June, with ANZ and SEEK job ads released this week and the monthly ABS labour market data on Thursday.

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, China, RBA and the Labour Market
Markets Today: 61% say No

Markets Today: 61% say No

6 July 2015

Ahead of Sunday’s referendum, that is now in process of delivering a decisive ‘No’ vote (to the terms and conditions under which Greece’s creditors would have extended the now-expired second bailout).

Markets Today: 61% say No
Markets Today: Circling the wagons

Markets Today: Circling the wagons

3 July 2015

An overall disappointing US payrolls report, the ‘lowlight’ of which was an unexpectedly flat monthly read on average hourly earnings and which, together with a 0.1% downward revision to May, served to pull annual earnings growth down to 2.0% from 2.3%.

Markets Today: Circling the wagons
Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down

Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down

2 July 2015

om Petty’s 1989 classic is appropriately recast as an “Ode to Alex” (Tsipras) after the Greek Prime Minister says he won’t back down on his referendum decision and that both he and Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis confirmed they are campaigning for a ‘No’ vote in Sunday’s poll.

Markets Today: I Won’t Back Down
Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off

Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off

30 June 2015

We expected this week to be one of fast moving events, and that’s how it’s playing out. Greek PM Alex Tsipras has been speaking saying that he will do whatever he can to protect the Greek people

Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off
Markets Today: The Real Thing

Markets Today: The Real Thing

29 June 2015

Well, we didn’t see that coming, neither did the Institutions (nee Troika), nor the markets. Greece has pulled the negotiations plug at the last minute and put the deal to a national referendum (5 July) AFTER the deadline for payment (1 July).

Markets Today: The Real Thing
Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?

Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?

26 June 2015

If you had come in this morning, looked at the news released on the US economy overnight and how the US bond and equity markets had traded, you would not be surprised at all with the prices on the screen this morning, irrespective of what has and has not been going on as far as Greece is concerned.

Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?
Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed

Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed

24 June 2015

All is well, solved, sorted; just not signed. Markets are pretty content with the idea that Greece and its creditors will do a deal before the June 30 deadline. And the Fed will hike in September, and China can avoid an equity market accident.

Markets Today: Solved, sorted, just not signed
Markets Today: Waiting for Godot

Markets Today: Waiting for Godot

23 June 2015

Except he never came. We wait, there is a vast amount of commentary and expectation, and even a fair degree of optimism. And nothing might happen for a few days at least. But in this case, there will be an endpoint.

Markets Today: Waiting for Godot
Australian Weekly Markets:  Last chance for Greece, again

Australian Weekly Markets: Last chance for Greece, again

22 June 2015

Here we are again, still writing about Greece. Will a deal be put together that is acceptable to Greece and its creditors? Greece is asking for debt relief, Europe asking for further economic reforms to pensions and taxation. The 11th hour for Greece is approaching, yet again.

Australian Weekly Markets:  Last chance for Greece, again
Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)

Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)

19 June 2015

A fairly big slug of US economic data last night – admittedly not all of its top drawer – collectively added up to progress, on the real economy at least, towards the commencement of Fed tightening in coming months.

Markets Today: Progress (no, silly, not on Greece)
Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself

Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself

18 June 2015

The FOMC meeting was a bit of a mark-to-reality exercise for markets, after perhaps getting a little ahead of itself. This applies both to the intra-day moves and the direction over recent weeks.

Markets Today: No getting ahead of yourself
Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation

Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation

17 June 2015

There is a nervous tinge to the commentary overnight, but market moves have been relatively light, and the same is expected for today. Equities are modestly higher in the US and Europe, yields are lower generally, while the USD outperformed.

Markets Today: Waiting with nervous anticipation
Markets Today: Greek nonchalance

Markets Today: Greek nonchalance

16 June 2015

Given the news that greeted the incoming Asia-Pacific market on Monday morning – that talks between Greece and her creditors in Brussels on Sunday had collapsed after just 45 minutes

Markets Today: Greek nonchalance
Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon

Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon

15 June 2015

After markets last week ended with a whimper rather than a bang, things have already heated up this morning with news on Sunday evening from Brussels that the latest talks aimed at bridging the differences between Greece and her creditors have collapsed.

Markets Today: Heading for the last chance saloon
Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue

Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue

12 June 2015

It’s been a whippy, but in the event, mostly an up week for the AUD, starting with a better NAB Business Survey for May, disappointing consumer confidence, RBA’s Stevens keeping the rate easing door ajar and yesterday’s strong employment report.

Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue
Markets Today: Wheeler dealer

Markets Today: Wheeler dealer

11 June 2015

To the evident delight of a section of the offshore hedge fund community, the RBNZ has just delivered on its recently instated easing bias, with a 25-point cut to the OCR to 3.25% and accompanied by a statement that further easing may be appropriate.

Markets Today: Wheeler dealer
Markets Today: All about the yields

Markets Today: All about the yields

10 June 2015

You’d think it was a quiet night overnight: US equities were flat, European stocks a little down and currencies traded in a very tight range.

Markets Today: All about the yields
Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?

Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?

9 June 2015

The first port of call for some Australian market participants this morning, returning to work after a three day weekend and having just caught up on Friday’s all-important US employment report, might be to their IT department to complain the prices on their screens are all wrong.

Markets Today: What strong payrolls report?
Markets Today: Another step down the road we go

Markets Today: Another step down the road we go

5 June 2015

As has been touted in recent days, the IMF confirmed that Greece has asked the IMF to bundle its four June payments into one, delaying therefore the €301mn payment due to the Fund tonight

Markets Today: Another step down the road we go
Markets Today: Got To Expect it

Markets Today: Got To Expect it

4 June 2015

Well if Mr Draghi says it is so, we’d better get used to it. Bond yields, particularly in Germany, continued their rise yesterday; despite the ECB’s Draghi telling us that they are committed to their QE program.

Markets Today: Got To Expect it
Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields

Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields

3 June 2015

Big moves overnight, not all of them consistent, but they may have caught out investors positioning for a rise in risk aversion. As news of a possible deal between Greece and its creditors came in, bond yields – led by Germany, rose sharply.

Markets Today: Flying Bund Yields
Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)

Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)

2 June 2015

Incoming US economic data continues to rule the roost, last night’s batch encompassing the manufacturing ISM (strong), construction spending (very strong) personal income (strong), spending (weak) and the personal consumption deflators (weak).

Markets Today: ‘Tis the Season(al)
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece faces very tough few months

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece faces very tough few months

1 June 2015

A big week with Q1 Australian GDP, the RBA’s June Board Meeting and US non-farm payrolls for May at the end of the week. Greece faces a tough three months, with large debt, loan and interest payments due between June and August. In our highlighted article, we focus on different scenarios for Greece and what they mean for the EUR and AUD.

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece faces very tough few months
Markets Today: Four more sleeps

Markets Today: Four more sleeps

1 June 2015

US revised Q1 GDP came in at -0.7% so not quite as weak as the -0.9% expected (and note any upward revision from a review of seasonal adjustment methodology will not arrive until the Q2 estimate is first released in late July).

Markets Today: Four more sleeps
Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece

Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece

29 May 2015

Greece news and chatter continues to permeate markets as Greece gets closer to the first payment to the IMF due June 5. Reports of continued losses at Greek banks and deposit outflows continues to weigh on sentiment as liquidity remains at a premium.

Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece
Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs

Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs

27 May 2015

Seemingly there were many “light bulb” moments overnight, when competing ideas, that have been around awhile, suddenly gain traction and markets run with them.

Markets Today: Many Lightbulbs
Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock

Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock

26 May 2015

Tick tock, tick tock – that’s both the sound of time passing on one of the quietest days in the markets but also that of the countdown to Greece needing to come to an agreement with its creditors.

Markets Today: Tick tock, tick tock
Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts

Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts

22 May 2015

The Euro-zone preliminary PMI readings for May hit the screens early in the European session, revealing something of a net recovery for the Euro-zone, the manufacturing index up to 52.3 from 52.0.

Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts
Markets Today:  7th Heaven

Markets Today: 7th Heaven

19 May 2015

They might not exactly be skipping across Martin Place to work this morning, but there should be at least a small smile on the faces of RBA Board members that the Aussie dollar is trading back on a ‘7’ handle, following a night during which the US dollar had been bid across the board.

Markets Today:  7th Heaven
Market Today: and relax

Market Today: and relax

15 May 2015

After Wednesday night’s excitement, there was a collective deep breath overnight, with some of the preceding moves reversed. There was little newsflow but what there was allowed for some relaxation of the prior day’s anxiety.

Market Today: and relax
Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week

Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week

11 May 2015

The April US employment report proved to be a ‘Goldilocks’ affair for markets, not strong enough to detract from the view a first Fed tightening probably won’t happen at least before September

Markets Today: Welcome to the palindromic week
Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band

Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band

8 May 2015

If you pull an elastic band hard enough, it will snap back and might hurt. It seems we are getting that in yields, but we know that the band runs out of energy at some point.

Markets Today: Snapping the elastic band
Markets Today: What a tangled web

Markets Today: What a tangled web

7 May 2015

We are likely in for an interesting debate ahead: Central banks lower policy accommodation to astonishing levels and then suggest that markets might be a touch expensive.

Markets Today: What a tangled web
Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie

Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie

6 May 2015

It’s been a very eventful past two sessions for the AUD that sits atop the major FX leader board, trading at 0.7935 in early trade this morning. The reaction of the AUD immediately after the RBA statement said it all.

Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie
Markets Today: Stand and deliver

Markets Today: Stand and deliver

5 May 2015

A night of recent ranges as far as the major currencies was the order of the overnight session, the AUD/USD marking time ahead of the RBA decision today at 2.30pm. As background to the $A, iron ore spot prices pulled back again yesterday by $0.95 to $56.18, gold rose 1.13% and LME copper by 1.0%.

Markets Today: Stand and deliver
Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events

Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events

4 May 2015

The US Treasury bond yield back-up continued on Friday, but this time not led by Europe, where the 10yr Bund yield was up just 0.7bp to 0.373% in a holiday thinned European May Day .

Markets Today: Events, my dear boy, events
Markets Today: May Day

Markets Today: May Day

1 May 2015

Today is a holiday in much of Asia and Europe (Happy May Day) but that doesn’t stop the dataflow.

Markets Today: May Day
Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?

Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?

28 April 2015

Eurozone markets have been cheered by reports that Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has been removed from the debt-deal negotiation table by his prime minister. Varoufakis’ hard-ball tactics have been a source of huge frustration for the Brussels group of international creditors.

Markets Today: Stevens Speaks – Nothing to See Here?
Markets Today: When less is more

Markets Today: When less is more

27 April 2015

Almost without irony, we have to report that Friday’s US durable goods orders report was sufficiently weak to power US stock indices to new record highs, such was the ‘zero for longer’ interpretation of the data. Not the better than expected +4% headline read-out, but the core numbers for capital goods that exclude both (exceptionally strong) Boeing aircraft orders and also relatively strong auto orders.

Markets Today: When less is more
Markets Today: The battle for the low end

Markets Today: The battle for the low end

24 April 2015

It was a case of softer than expected readings on both sides of the Atlantic overnight, but in the wash up, the market was inclined to give more credence to the softer suite of US economy reports than for Europe’s.

Markets Today: The battle for the low end
Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return

Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return

23 April 2015

AUD/NZD parity party celebrations will just have to be put back into the cupboard for now, courtesy of yesterday’s higher than expected AU CPI, headline and underlying inflation higher by up to a tenth.

Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return
Markets Today: Parity party anyone?

Markets Today: Parity party anyone?

22 April 2015

Watching the horrific wind and rain maps of the Sydney area must have seen many planes circling and hoping to land or simply stuck on the tarmac. Markets were also in a holding pattern overnight.

Markets Today: Parity party anyone?
Australian Markets Weekly: Fed now not impatient – RBA patient in March

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed now not impatient – RBA patient in March

23 March 2015

This week we look at: •The latest US FOMC statement and its implications; •The RBA Minutes, which reveal the Bank considered further reducing rates in March, but decided against moving at that meeting. How much longer might they be patient?; •The latest industry employment data to see how this fits with our view of the Australian economy; and •The main events coming up this week.

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed now not impatient – RBA patient in March
Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely

Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely

16 March 2015

We preview this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and look to tomorrow’s RBA March Board Minutes. The focus will be on the Committee’s forward guidance and forecasts, and whether they can still be “patient” before beginning to normalise the stance of monetary policy.

Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely
Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up

Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up

16 February 2015

If there was any take away from last week’s January labour force report it was that a gradual trend rise in Australia’s unemployment rate remains in place. And this is despite some modest increase in the underlying pace of new job creation.

Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up
Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off

9 February 2015

The week opens with two conflicting pieces of economic news for markets, the strong US payrolls report and weak China trade data. NAB has also revised lower its $A forecasts. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for January surprised on the high side.

Australian Markets Weekly: Fed a step closer to lift-off
Australian Markets Weekly: Monetary Policy

Australian Markets Weekly: Monetary Policy

2 February 2015

Another big week coming up, with the RBA’s first Board meeting of the year tomorrow, the much-awaited retail sales reading for December on Thursday, the RBA’s February Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday and US non-farm payrolls data for January on Friday night.

Australian Markets Weekly: Monetary Policy
FOMC Marks Time As RBNZ Drops Tightening Bias

FOMC Marks Time As RBNZ Drops Tightening Bias

29 January 2015

The USD Index is little changed, but yields are marginally lower after the Fed issued a post meeting Statement repeating it can be “patient” in beginning to normalise monetary policy.

FOMC Marks Time As RBNZ Drops Tightening Bias
Taking The USD Down A Peg

Taking The USD Down A Peg

28 January 2015

The USD stands lower this morning against all G10 currencies, on the back of remarkably weak US durable goods orders. The EUR was a key beneficiary, up as much as 1.6% for the day, before paring those gains to sit at 1.1360.

Taking The USD Down A Peg
Markets homing in on the Euro

Markets homing in on the Euro

27 January 2015

The US$ ended last week on a strong note and started the week with more momentum, aided by further Euro weakness. The Greek election has come and gone with anti-austerity Syriza Party winning the largest number of seats with its young leader Alexis Tsipras the winner.

Markets homing in on the Euro
Exceeding Consensus Boldly

Exceeding Consensus Boldly

23 January 2015

Our central expectation going in to the ECB meeting was that President Draghi would try to exceed expectations. He is a past master of this, very skilled at manipulating opinion and then over-delivering

Exceeding Consensus Boldly
Bank of Canada move hits commodity currencies

Bank of Canada move hits commodity currencies

22 January 2015

The Bank of Canada is the latest Central Bank to deliver a shock; cutting its main policy rate to 0.75% from 1.0% in a move which none of the 22 analysts surveyed had anticipated.

Bank of Canada move hits commodity currencies
US dollar regains its mojo

US dollar regains its mojo

21 January 2015

There’s a clear trend developing in global equity markets where expectations for monetary stimulus in Europe (ex-Switzerland of course!) are driving stocks higher whilst the prospect, or possibility, of Fed tightening combined with worries over corporate earnings are depressing

US dollar regains its mojo
The calm before the storm

The calm before the storm

20 January 2015

For the first time in well over a week, almost every currency is trading on the same big figure as it did 24 hours ago; the one exception being EUR/USD but even this is only 60 pips from where it opened Monday morning.

The calm before the storm
Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan

Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan

19 January 2015

Nothing could be clearer than the current economic and policy divide than between the US and Europe. As the Fed ponders rate lift-off and US consumer sentiment hits its highest level for 11 years, the ECB last week has been putting together a QE plan that will get some sort of approval from Germany.

Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan
Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore

Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore

16 January 2015

The big news overnight was the completely unexpected Swiss National Bank abandoning its EUR/CHF 1.20 floor it’s been defending since September 2011. As recently as last week, the 1.20 floor was described by SNB President Thomas Jordan as “absolutely central” in light of negative inflation.

Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore
Commodity market volatility the order of the day

Commodity market volatility the order of the day

15 January 2015

There’s been some more significant price action in commodities to report from the past 24 hours. At lunchtime yesterday Asian LME metals prices went into free-fall on the back of no apparent news other than playing catch up to what we’ve seen on oil and maybe even the AUD.

Commodity market volatility the order of the day
Still testing its specific gravity

Still testing its specific gravity

14 January 2015

Oil remains the centre of attention though the further dip not of the same cathartic proportions as the night before but enough it seems to continue to dog equity market sentiment, US energy stocks down another 1.2% with WTI and Brent down 0.4% and 0.8% respectively.

Still testing its specific gravity
Oil prices take another lashing

Oil prices take another lashing

13 January 2015

Oil prices have again been the stand out story overnight with Brent now clearly below $50/bbl, having tested below $50 last week, and both WTI and Brent down 5-5½% overnight to below $46 for WTI and currently $46.66 for Brent.

Oil prices take another lashing
Soft Wage Growth Rules The Day

Soft Wage Growth Rules The Day

12 January 2015

As we headed into the US employment reports, equities, bond yields, and the US Dollar were all modestly drifting lower. On the release, the positive headlines of strong payrolls growth and lower initially saw those shoot higher, before more than fully retracing those moves.

Soft Wage Growth Rules The Day
Dovish or Hawkish? Take Your Pick

Dovish or Hawkish? Take Your Pick

19 December 2014

Risk appetite has continued to improve, with a promise from the Fed to be “patient” in normalising interest rates stoking equities.

Dovish or Hawkish? Take Your Pick
2014 Year in Review: Capital Financing

2014 Year in Review: Capital Financing

17 December 2014

As Steve Lambert, EGM Capital Financing, explains, 2014 was the year that opened up new opportunities for customers - from the new funding model for local government to the higher education sector emerging as a new borrower in the market. We review the year in our magazine.

2014 Year in Review: Capital Financing
Twenty Big Figures In One Session

Twenty Big Figures In One Session

17 December 2014

Another wild night in markets, and it is slightly to surprising to see equities post some decent gains. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed 2.3% higher with energy stocks leading the way, with some investors likely on the hunt for bargains in the still-negative risk environment.

Twenty Big Figures In One Session
Markets whip-sawed across asset classes

Markets whip-sawed across asset classes

16 December 2014

Hard to know where to start this report with extremely whippy and severe movements across asset classes overnight. It was a wild night for all sorts of reasons, not the least being the siege in Sydney’s CBD that was ended in the early hours of this morning with a sad loss of life for some innocent people.

Markets whip-sawed across asset classes
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

15 December 2014

Last Friday saw the third annual pre-Xmas interview of the RBA Governor by the Australian Financial Review. The headlines were: "Governor wants an $A at 75cents" and "RBA pushes back on rates cuts".

Australian Markets Weekly
Oil takes another hit

Oil takes another hit

15 December 2014

There was another step lower in oil prices on Friday night with Brent down another $1.69/bbl to $61.09 and WTI $-2.14 to $57.81. No surprise then that US consumers are rejoicing at the prospect of lower gasoline prices.

Oil takes another hit
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

8 December 2014

e week commences against the backdrop of Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report for November (which included favourable diffusion indexes and temp help trends signalling ongoing stronger outcomes).

Australian Markets Weekly
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

10 November 2014

After several low quarterly increases, we expect Wednesday’s Q3 wage data to show a small up-tick in the annual growth rate from 2.6% yoy to 2.7% in Q3.

Australian Markets Weekly
AUD higher after US jobs and Chinese trade

AUD higher after US jobs and Chinese trade

10 November 2014

The US payrolls report on Friday night was solid, despite the headline increase of 214K in October coming in below the 235K expected. September payrolls were revised up by 8k to 256k and August up by 23k to 203k.

AUD higher after US jobs and Chinese trade
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

27 October 2014

Fairly quiet week for scheduled data and events in Australia but more action overseas, particularly in the US where the Federal Reserve will end their bond buying or quantitative easing programme

Australian Markets Weekly
MTN Market update

MTN Market update

15 October 2014

Director, Corporate Debt Markets Origination at NAB, Brad Scott discusses the recent developments in the Market Term Notes (MTN) market, along with the outlook for the rest of the year and the opportunities that are opening up for investors.

MTN Market update
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

13 October 2014

A striking feature in recent times has been the divergence between the confidence of businesses and consumers.

Australian Markets Weekly
FOMC Fireworks

FOMC Fireworks

9 October 2014

Some quite explosive overnight price action and which has followed directly from the publication of the September FOMC meeting minutes. This has seen US equities jump by almost a percent.

FOMC Fireworks
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

29 September 2014

House prices have been rising briskly in Australia since late 2011. They continued to do so at the weekend with RP Data showing that prices were up in nearly all the major cities and auction clearance rates robust.

Australian Markets Weekly
A Tale of Two Numbers

A Tale of Two Numbers

25 September 2014

The juxtaposition of another significant downside Eurozone data surprise (German IFO) and a major upside surprise for US New Home Sales has – unsurprisingly – pushed the EUR below 1.28 against the US dollar for the first time since 10 July 2013.

A Tale of Two Numbers
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

22 September 2014

In their most recent quarterly RBA Bulletin released last week, the RBA published a summary of their business liaison program, how they use that to stay abreast of current business conditions and how it has been invaluable in providing warnings of any sudden changes in the business cycle.

Australian Markets Weekly
USD strength sees AUD fall again

USD strength sees AUD fall again

22 September 2014

The USD strengthened against all G10 currencies on Friday night, pushing the AUD to a new post-March low of 0.8921, and it has opened up just above that at 0.8935 this morning. The AUD was not helped by a further 1.6% fall in iron ore.

USD strength sees AUD fall again
Australia, New Zealand and China update

Australia, New Zealand and China update

19 September 2014

Financial Stability Review, RBA Governor a panellist at the Melbourne Economic Forum and second tier labour market data. Election tomorrow and Trade data next week.

Australia, New Zealand and China update
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

15 September 2014

Business confidence near multi-year highs yet consumer confidence near multi-year lows. Firms profitability being driven by productivity and constrained labour costs. Household income growth near zero over past two years – near recessionary levels.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

8 September 2014

The Government Statistician released the Q2 National Accounts last week which showed the economy doing quite well. Or at least a bit better than we feared given mining investment is slumping and commodity prices are falling.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australia, New Zealand and China

Australia, New Zealand and China

8 September 2014

Australia: Solid employment gain expected on Thursday. NAB Business Survey and Consumer Confidence also released next week. NZ: RBNZ to temper its OCR outlook in Thursday’s Monetary Policy Statement. China: Trade figures, CPI and industrial production.

Australia, New Zealand and China
Retail sales growing modestly in 2014

Retail sales growing modestly in 2014

5 September 2014

Australian retail sales rose 0.4% in July, a good result that builds on the 0.6% growth in June. We were expecting a stronger gain but it nevertheless reaffirms that the negative impact from the Federal Budget on retail spending in May was temporary.

Retail sales growing modestly in 2014
Australian economy still growing in Q2

Australian economy still growing in Q2

3 September 2014

After (unrevised) growth of 1.1% in the March quarter, growth of 0.5% in Q2 with the known 0.9% drag from net exports was a more than respectable outcome. Headline growth was a tad above the 0.4% consensus and our own 0.2% call.

Australian economy still growing in Q2
End of Summer complete with snooze

End of Summer complete with snooze

2 September 2014

It was particularly quiet overnight, with the US on holidays. The poor European and UK data didn’t worry markets much, which, in the main, were taking a little nap

End of Summer complete with snooze
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

1 September 2014

Blockbuster week in Australia with loads of key economic data, an RBA rate decision tomorrow, and a speech from the RBA Governor on Wednesday.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australia, New Zealand and China update

Australia, New Zealand and China update

29 August 2014

RBA on hold Tuesday, Stevens speaking and a soft GDP report Wednesday, along with mixed July data: strong retail sales but soft building approvals. Pre-Q2 GDP partials also due Mon/Tues; NAB Online retail index due Wednesday

Australia, New Zealand and China update
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

25 August 2014

As part of the current local reporting season last week, we heard that both the Gladstone and Australia Pacific LNG projects are on track and on budget.

Australian Markets Weekly
RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce

RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce

20 August 2014

The RBA’s half-yearly testimony had a somewhat more positive tone without going overboard on growth specifics nor on when a more discernible upturn might arrive. (The Bank’s formal forecasts were of course outlined in their quarterly statement earlier).

RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

19 August 2014

Speaking with clients in Adelaide last week, it was something of a surprise that the NAB Business Survey improved further in July, with NAB Business Conditions making some further ground to now be above its long term average.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian markets weekly

11 August 2014

A final word on the Australia-US labour market comparison we wrote about last week. We would not have been surprised to see the US rate lower than Australia’s rate by now before seeing July’s US non-farm payrolls and Australia’s Labour Force report as they had almost converged

Australian Markets Weekly
RBA Annoucement: RBA on hold; little change to the press release

RBA Annoucement: RBA on hold; little change to the press release

5 August 2014

The Reserve Bank of Australia made no change to policy at today’s meeting, as expected. There were minimal changes to the press release, and the RBA again concluded that “on present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.”

RBA Annoucement: RBA on hold; little change to the press release
Australian Markets Weekly: 21 July 2014

Australian Markets Weekly: 21 July 2014

21 July 2014

The quarterly inflation print is the most important statistic for financial markets in Australia. Several reasons why. First and most importantly the RBA is an inflation targeting central bank and this is their quarterly scorecard.

Australian Markets Weekly: 21 July 2014
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

14 July 2014

After seven years of negotiation Australia and Japan signed an Economic Partnership Agreement last week. Some call it a free-trade agreement but as one of my colleagues noted no trade is entirely free.

Australian Markets Weekly
Your Money, Your Call: Economic update

Your Money, Your Call: Economic update

7 July 2014

NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by NAB Head of Research Peter Jolly and Laminar economist Stephen Roberts to discuss the Australian and US economies, along with the Australian Federal Budget and issues posed by our ageing population.

Your Money, Your Call: Economic update
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

7 July 2014

Most of us like matters to be resolved quickly and with clarity. This is especially true of financial market folk: Is the economic outlook good or bad? If the RBA isn’t cutting they must be hiking?

Australian Markets Weekly
Australia, New Zealand and China update

Australia, New Zealand and China Update

7 July 2014

There are some more meaty reports due on the economy this week, commencing with the ANZ Job Ads report for June (L: -5.6%), a last partial look into labour demand ahead of Thursday’s labour force report.

Australia, New Zealand and China update
RBA Annoucement: RBA still uncomfortably on hold

RBA Annoucement: RBA still uncomfortably on hold

2 July 2014

Predictably the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 2.50%. They also retained their neutral bias – a small surprise – saying again that “the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates”.

RBA Annoucement: RBA still uncomfortably on hold
Your Money, Your Call: Update on cash rates and the RBA

Your Money, Your Call: Update on cash rates and the RBA

1 July 2014

NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, chats about where interest rates are headed and their subsequent impact on term deposits with AFR columnist, Chris Joye and Montgomery Investment Management strategist, Andrew Macken.

Your Money, Your Call: Update on cash rates and the RBA
Your Money, Your Call: US Federal Outlook for 2014-15

Your Money, Your Call: US Federal Outlook for 2014-15

1 July 2014

NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, discusses the 2014-15 outlook for the US Federal reserve and interest rates with AFR columnist, Chris Joye and Montgomery Investment Management stategist, Andrew Macken.

Your Money, Your Call: US Federal Outlook for 2014-15
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

30 June 2014

A busy few weeks as we get a good number of timely indicators on the economy as well as the RBA’s latest assessment of developments at tomorrow’s Board meeting. Governor Stevens speaks on Thursday.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

24 June 2014

A light period for new data is an appropriate time to take stock of where the economy is at. Short answer is that the pace appears to be coming out of the interest rate sensitive consumer

Australian Markets Weekly
Your Money, Your Call: BHP and inflation

Your Money, Your Call: BHP and inflation

28 April 2014

NAB’s Director of Fixed Income, Mark Todd, is joined by FNArena analyst Rudi Filapek-Vandyck. They begin by discussing investing in BHP stock, before assessing inflation - including current forecasts and how velocity, innovation and the labour market can impact upon it.

Your Money, Your Call: BHP and inflation
RBA Leaves Rates on Hold

RBA Leaves Rates on Hold

6 March 2013

As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3.00% yesterday, also retaining their monetary easing bias, or in their words, “the inflation outlook, as assessed at present, would afford scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary to support demand”.

RBA Leaves Rates on Hold
Australian Corporate Bonds – January 2013

Australian Corporate Bonds – January 2013

7 January 2013

We bring you the first of five research reports examining the Australian Corporate Bond Market, prepared for National Australia Bank by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies.

Australian Corporate Bonds – January 2013