An encouraging start to 2017 – although strength still comes from the old economy, with retail trends disappointing.

Business survey suggests solid near-term activity, despite easing from multi-year high.

Recession fears overblown as GDP rebounds; income surges despite weak labour income.

Summer has brought extremely volatile conditions to Australia’s cropping districts. While much of eastern Australia has baked in an extraordinary heatwave, Western Australia has suffered substantial flooding.

Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.

For the 2016-17 season, we developed a new wheat production forecast model, based on regional rainfall and state yields going back to federation, with an allowance for technological change.

The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.

The Australian budget in the first six months of this financial year is tracking a little higher, but not significantly worse than recent budget forecasts

Look out quinoa – an Australian-grown ancient grain with serious health credentials is gaining ground on menus as awareness builds about its many benefits.

From a political perspective, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the TPP reflected US sentiment against globalisation, particularly in the mid-west rust belt.

Prices across the base metals complex have generally been stronger than expected in recent months, prompting some upward revisions to our price forecasts

Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.

We expect growth to face some headwinds in coming quarters but to strengthen later in the year and into the next, assuming the President delivers a fiscal stimulus to the economy

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